The Role of Space Community in the support of GFCS with ... Husband Bates... · Challenges &...
Transcript of The Role of Space Community in the support of GFCS with ... Husband Bates... · Challenges &...
The Role of Space Community in
the support of GFCS
with the development of an
Architecture for Climate Monitoring
from Space
Dr Wenjian Zhang, D/OBS, WMO
Robert Husband, EUMETSAT
John Bates, CEOS-CGMS WG Climate,
NOAA
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Sixteenth WMO Congress Resolution 19 (Cg-XVI, 2011)
DEVELOPMENT OF AN SPACE ARCHITECTURE FOR CLIMATE MONITORING Challenges and Opportunities 1: Promotion role of GFCS for Space Architecture Development
• Considering: The underpinning role that observations will play in the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS),
• Decides that an architecture for climate monitoring from space should be developed, to provide a framework for the sustained & coordinated monitoring of the Earth’s climate from space;
• Invites CEOS, CGMS, GCOS, GEO & WCRP to collaborate with the WMO Space Programme on the development
Agriculture
Health
Water
Disaster Risk Reduction
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Why do we need a Climate Monitoring Architecture?
• To provide a structured and comprehensive view as to what Climate
Data Records are available from Earth Observation satellites
• To create the conditions for delivering further Climate Data Records
through best use of existing data holdings
• To optimise the planning of future satellite missions and
constellations in order to expand existing and planned Climate Data
Records, in terms of both coverage and record length, and address
possible gaps
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Opportunity: Global promotion through GFCS to convince
governments for enhanced and sustained space observations
• Excerpt from President J.F. Kennedy’s
address to the UN General Assembly, 25 September 1961…, he said:
• Here, with new scientific tools like modern computers and satellites, the atmospheric sciences require worldwide observations and, hence, international cooperation …-lead to World Weather Watch Program decision at WMO Cg-4 (1963)
• Space Architecture for Climate needs greater governmental & Intl Org support
• 50+ years development of WMO Space-based observations
1961 1978
1990 2014
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气象灾害监测预警-张文建
WMO is coordinating New baseline with three
orbital planes in the 2025 Vision for WMO
Space Global Observing System
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Challenges & Opportunities 2: Partnership & collaborations
CEOS, CGMS, GCOS, GEO, WCRP, GFCS, all end users
• CEOS-CGMS-WMO ad hoc group on
Architecture for Climate Monitoring
from Space, Chair: Mark Dowell
• A report: Strategy Towards an
Architecture for Climate Monitoring
from Space
• The strategy presents a proposed
logical architecture that represents a
first step in the development of a
physical architecture.
• Outline of the report – Executive Summary and
recommendations
– Introduction, Objectives & Targets
– Climate Monitoring Principles, Requirements & Guidelines
– State of the Art
– Beyond research to operations
– Climate Architecture definition
– Mechanisms for Interaction
– Roadmap for way forward
– Recommendations
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GFCS Use-driven Requirements to Space
Agencies is Through CEOS-CGMS WGClimate
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An end-to-end Architecture Design for monitoring climate
for both long-term trend & extreme events in real time
I1
Earth Environment
O1
DecisionsDecision-Making
(including
adaptation &
mitigation policy
and planning)A5
ReportsSense Earth
Environment
A1
Observations
Create and
Maintain
Short/Medium
Term Climate Data
Records
A2
Create and
Maintain Long-
term Climate Data
Records
A3
Interim Climate
Data Records
Operational
Climate Monitoring
A4
Long-term Climate
Variability &
Climate Change
Analysis
A7
Climate Data
Records
Create and Maintain
Higher-Level Climate
Information (e.g. CDR
analysis or model-
based reanalysis)
A8
Climate Information
Records
Sensing Climate Record Creation Applications Decision-Making
Instrument level Observation level Product level Service level
Seasonal outlook
Attribution of events
Climate indices
…
EC
Vs
Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)
GPCP is an international, inter-agency effort to provide CDR-quality global
precipitation analyses at monthly, pentad and daily time scales.
Climatology (1979-2013)
mm/d
GPCP data used in > 1500 journal articles
Essential Climate Variable - Precipitation
GPCP CDR Objectives 1) To successfully update, streamline
and integrate the GPCP production code for “automated” sustained production,
2) Develop an “interim” CDR for GPCP monthly for operational climate analysis.
3) Derive sector-focused climate information records driven by decision making needs
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Interim CDR GPCP Monthly Analysis for July 2014 for Routine Monitoring
An Interim CDR of monthly, global precipitation (within 10 days of the end of the month) is being produced
mm/day
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Challenges & Opportunities 2: Partnership & collaborations
Operational + R&D missions; Space + Surface
Research + Operations Longest surface T instruments measurements (>140 years)
Against 30 years average (1961-1990)
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Courtesy Jhoon Kim, Andreas Richter
GEMS
Sentinel-4 TEMPO
Spatial coverage of funded spectrometers 2018-2020 Policy-relevant science and environmental services enabled by common observations
The Space Architecture will Integrate operational and R&D satellites building synergies for enhanced climate observing capabilities:
Example: Geostationary pollution monitoring - health
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GCOS assesses progress and requirements, advises on implementation, and
reports to UNFCCC on the status of observing systems for climate.
GCOS Sponsors & Partners of observing components
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Challenges and Opportunities 3:
Document broader requirements • Services Requirements:
– The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Implementation Plan (WMO extraordinary Session, October 2012) adds another dimension to the requirements directly link to the user’s application areas: agriculture and food security, water resources, health and disaster risk reduction
• Assessment Requirements: – The IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report (2007) underscores the urgent need for critical climate data, and an
international architecture supporting them, to observe and monitor the global water cycle and the global carbon cycle.
• Climate Modelling Requirements: – Model initialisation and definition of boundary conditions
– Model development and validation
• Observing and Data Requirements – Climate Observations:Essential Climate Variables (GCOS ECV Inventory) defined by Global Climate Observing
System (GCOS-82, 2003), Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR)…
• It is clear that the requirements extending beyond the capabilities of one-time research missions and operational satellite systems in existence today.
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Members’
organizations and
programmes
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WMO Standard Practice: Rolling Review of Requirements - to identify new observing requirements & gaps of new initiatives (GFCS, Architecture.)
“Statement of
Guidance”
and
Implementation Plan
for observing
capabilities
(Actions,
Recommendations)
Requirements Requirements
Requirements Requirements
Gap Analysis
on
observations Derived
variables Performances
Space and
ground-based
capabilities
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Weather • Climate • Water 16
Gaps and deficiencies identified through the
GFCS IP
• Inadequate atmospheric observations, limited space and surface-based remote sensing capabilities, and the absence of operational monitoring of some important air quality, radiation, etc…;
• Inadequate observational coverage of important oceanographic variables (ocean currents, mass flux, ocean salinity, and sea ice parameters);
• Inadequate terrestrial observing networks (river discharge, ground water, lake levels, permafrost, glaciers and ice caps) and absence of designated networks for soil moisture, Leaf Area Index (LAI), Fraction of Absorbed Photo-synthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) and above ground biomass
World Climate Conferences
1990 – WCRP – World Climate Research Programme. SCIENCE
2000 – GCOS – Global Climate Observing System. OBSERVATIONS
2009 – GFCS- Global Framework for Climate Services. SERVICES
17 1 October 2014
These programmes report directly to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and there Parties are expected to support them.
GCOS (2010) Implementation Plan for the Global
Observing System for Climate in Support of the
UNFCCC. GCOS-138, Geneva, 180 pp
Requirements: Global Climate Observing System – Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)
World Climate Conferences
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Observations for Climate Change Mitigation
& for adaptation to climate variability & change GCOS, in collaboration with the Land
Cover Project Office from the Global
Observation for Forest Cover and Land
Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD), has
organized an international workshop to
consider the climate observation
requirements to support actions for
climate change mitigation.
Focus on Land Use (Agriculture)
and Forest
Representatives from UNFCCC,
FAO, ICRAF, ESA, IPCC, etc. Workshop website:
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.
php?name=ObservationsforMitigation
Inventory Questionnaire • Joint activity CEOS, CGMS and WMO – call issued in May 2012
• Questionnaire form – through a web interface
• 45 total questions based on 5 topics (General, Usage, Stewardship, Properties, Access)
• Responses requested at the dataset level
• Addresses both existing/past missions and future/planned mission in two separate questionnaires
• Each single entry takes on average 25 minutes to complete
• ~220 dataset entries as of March 2013 with good representation across domains
Inventory Statistics – ECV Timelines
WGClimate Meeting, Geneva, February 2013
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--Pose with the Atlas of Health And Climate,
during a press conference on the extraordinary
session of World Meteorological Congress,
2012 in Geneva.
--With droughts, floods and hurricanes like the
one bearing down on New York affecting the
health of millions of people each year, WMO
and WHO health agencies presented an
overview of how climate data can help protect
public health.
Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO) Margaret
Chan (L) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Secretary-General, Michel Jarraud (R)
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Technical challenges : from user requirements into
missions/instruments/observations/products/info
Datasets
ECV Products and climate extremes
Observation &
Monitoring
Instruments Specifications: Instrument type,
Orbit, Scanning mode,
Spectral bands,
Channel width, SNR, …
Observational requirements: Geophysical variable,
Unit, Domain,
Spatial resolution,
Temporal resolution,
Uncertainty … Source, Format,
Projection,
Segmentation,
Quality flag,
Compression,
Metadata…
Product requirements: Type (numerical, graphical, binary, alert),
Algorithm,
Spatial/temporal resolution,
Quality control
Service requirements: Content, Presentation,
Delivery media, Timeliness,
Continuity,
User support, Training, ..
Services info needs
USERS’
needs
USERS’ satisfaction
Challenges and Opportunities 4: Turning Observations
into Knowledge Climate Products & Information
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Trend = 0.17 K Dec-1
250
251
252
253
254
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Combined
Linear (Combined)
Longest surfac
Challenges and Opportunities: from observations to infomation
Long-term quality controled records for climate monitoring & services
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Challenges and Opportunities 5:
– Free and Open data Policy • Key Role of Space Community in support of GFCS –
support global Free and Open data Policy Framework: – GFCS needs Governments and Space Agencies support for free and open
exchange of climate-relevant surface and space data, products & info.
Challenges and Opportunities 6: Realize Benefits
through applications - User engagement
Understanding
Models
Predictions
Consequences Validation
Initialization
Monitoring
Analysis
Observations
The Architecture with enhanced observations will motivate advances in understanding, prediction, and application.
--Number of satellite-borne
instruments data were assimilated
routinely by ECMWF
--Expect enhanced satellite data
utilization for improved climate
prediction performance
for Climate Services
Road Map – How & Who
Describe Current and Planned Implementation Arrangements (ECV-by-
ECV) within an Inventory
Use the Inventory & GFCS to Develop a Coordinated Action Plan to Address
Identified Gaps/Shortfalls
Define, Validate and Obtain Consensus on Overall Approach
(including logical representation) Short-term
(within 2 years)
Medium-term
(2-4 years)
Current status
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Summary • The initiative to develop a climate monitoring architecture has attracted
widespread support from EO space agencies, with consensus achieved
on the overall approach – now in the implementation phase.
• built-in compliance assessment to requirements, traceability, flexibility,
consistency
• The architecture will provide the foundation for implementing the
Observations and Monitoring pillar of GFCS, thus sustaining the
provision of observations for climate services.
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Thank You
WMO Space Programme contribution at both ends of the chain
Space Segment analysis
building on OSCAR/Space
• Identify CGMS missions with potential to deliver FCDRs (with ET/SAT)
• Encourage CGMS commitment to deliver and sustain such FCDRs
• Highlight gaps & prompt actions
Usage scenarios
in GFCS priority areas
• Identify end user requirements for climate services in key areas
• Infer the product requirements and specifications (with ET-SUP)
• Highlight gaps and prompt actions