The role of expert assessments in international environmental

affairs

William ClarkGlobal Environmental Assessment Project

Harvard Universityhttp://environment.harvard.edu/gea

The Problem…

• > 200 international environmental treaties

• … most requiring periodic assessments of – scientific information on causes, prospects– evaluations of impacts– efficacy of response strategies.

• Through complex processes engaging ‘000s

• How are we doing? How to improve?

The broader context

• If the “information age” is changing relationships of “power & interdependence” in the international arena (Keohane & Nye ‘98)

• Just how does it do so?

• What kinds of information, produced in what kinds of institutions, have what kinds of impacts on international affairs?

• What does this mean for practice of analysis & assessment in international contexts?

The Global Environmental Assessment (GEA) Project

• 5 yr research and training program to address these issues for environmental info

• international, interdisciplinary team– Clark, Parson, Jasanoff, Holdren, Dickson– Keohane, McCarthy, Schrag, Jaeger– Doctoral and postdoctoral fellows (23 + 5)

• research papers, seminar, workshops, web

What is an “Assessment”?

• A technical report produced by a suitably sanctioned international committee?

• A social process conducted within a framework of international institutions?

• A distributed information and decision support system linking knowledge and action across scales?

What are the effects of assessments on action?

• Potentially, contributing to change across a spectrum covering:– contents of the global “garbage can”– issue frames and agendas– strategies of actors– policy commitments

• In practice, more on upper end of spectrum

What distinguishes effective assessments?

• Saliency…– responsive to changing needs of specific users– avoiding the pitfalls of “universalism”

• Credibility…– to specific audiences, not necessarily the user– avoiding the pitfall of making only the

consensual credible.

On what do saliency and credibility most depend?

• Historical context– position in the issue cycle influences audience,

thus what is salient, credible to whom;– avoid pitfall of anachronistic assessment

• Characteristics of the assessment

• Characteristics of the user

Characteristics of assessments that affect saliency, credibility

• Structure– “embeddedness” in decision making institutions– provision for linking knowledge, users x-scales

• Participation– universal vs. local knowledge– scholarly vs. political credentials

• Scope of content: causes, effects, options

• Treatment of dissent, technical uncertainty

Characteristics of audience that affect saliency, credibility

• Interests

• Political openness / amplification channels

• Technical capacity

Implications for practice

• Many details of design...• Reconceptualize international assessment as

process of co-production through which interactions of experts and users define, shape, validate a shared body of usable knowledge.

• Work for international system of research and assessment, coupling global knowledge and local use through national institutions.