THE ROAD TO PARIS · THE ROAD TO PARIS ZERO EMISSIONS CONFERENCE 27 OCTOBER 2015. THINGS ARE...
Transcript of THE ROAD TO PARIS · THE ROAD TO PARIS ZERO EMISSIONS CONFERENCE 27 OCTOBER 2015. THINGS ARE...
KITTY VAN DER HEIJDEN, DIRECTOR EUROPE WRI
THE ROAD TO PARIS
ZERO EMISSIONS CONFERENCE
27 OCTOBER 2015
THINGS ARE HEATING UP
Source: NOAA
Source: NOAA
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
[Paris is not Copenhagen]
1. Global action - INDC
2. Major players play ball
3. Climate finance
4. Clean energy
5. Citizen / corporate voice
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
1. Global action - INDC
2. Major players play ball
3. Climate finance
4. Clean energy
5. Citizen / corporate voice
INDCS SUBMITTED TO DATE
126 INDCs (154 countries) ≈ 87% of Global Emissions
Source: WRI‘s CAIT Climate Data Explorer / OCN
DO INDCS ADD UP?
Source: WRI‘s CAIT Climate Data Explorer / OCN
INDCs: 90%+ GHG Reduction Targets (September 29th)
INDCS: GHG TARGET TYPE
AGGREGATE IMPACT OF INDCS
Source: Climate Action Tracker (CAT), Climate Analytics,/Ecofys/NewClimate/PIK
Pledges 2.5 - 2.7
INDCS: ADAPTATION
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
1. Global action - INDC
2. Major players play ball
3. Climate finance
4. Clean energy
5. Citizen / corporate voice
U.S. HAS A CLIMATE POLICY AT LAST
(Photo: Georgetown University)
US AND CHINA AGREEMENT
U.S. Embassy, The Hague/Flickr
• US and China
increase domestic
action
• Working towards a
strong Paris
Agreement
• Climate Finance
GERMAN-BRAZIL SUMMIT
DYNAMICS ARE CHANGING
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
1. Global action - INDC
2. Major players play ball
3. Climate finance
4. Clean energy
5. Citizen / corporate voice
CLIMATE FINANCE
- MDBs stepping up to the plate
- Bilateral announcements
- Shifting investment
Source: New Climate Economy
FROM BILLIONS TO TRILLIONS
$100 billionAnnual commitment of rich countries by 2020
$90 trillionGlobal investment in
energy, cities, and landscapes 2015-2030
“ TRAGEDY OF THE HORIZON ”
“Shifts in our climate bring potentially profound implications for insurers, financial stability and
the economy”– Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England,
Sept. 30 2015
Image: Wikimedia/World Economic Forum
SHIFTING THE TRILLIONS
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
1. Global action - INDC
2. Major players play ball
3. Climate finance
4. Clean energy
5. Citizen / corporate voice
COAL IS THE ‘NEW TOBACCO’
CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
IS VERY COSTLY
0
2
4
6
8
10
Co
st
of
en
vir
on
me
nta
l d
eg
rad
ati
on
as
% o
f G
DP
eq
uiv
ale
nt
9.2% OF GDP
(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)
INNOVATION IN MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES
(WRI chart using OECDstat data, 2013)
Pate
nts
ap
pli
cati
on
s
ind
exe
d to
20
00
le
ve
lsTotal renewable &
non-fossil technologies
Solar PV
Wind
Solar thermal
Hydro (excluding
conventional)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
All Patents
INDIA AS AN EXAMPLE:
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
1. Global action - INDC
2. Major players play ball
3. Climate finance
4. Clean energy
5. Citizen / corporate voice
Image: Flickr/Pettter Duvander
1000+ COMPANIES SUPPORT PRICE ON CARBON
60+ COMPANIES COMMIT TO SCIENCE BASED
TARGETS
Images: WRI; Wikimedia; Source: Science Based Targets Initiative
50% emissions reductions by
2020 (from 2007)
28% emissions reductions
by 2025 (from 2010)
30% emissions reductions by
2020 (from 2010)
COMPACT OF MAYORS: 200+ CITIES TAKING ACTION
Source: Compact of Mayors
HUGE OPPORTUNITY
75%of 2050 urban
infrastructure in
India not yet built
LANDSCAPE RESTORATION
Image: WRI
POLITICAL MOMENTUM IS BUILDING
(Photo: Erland Howden/Flickr)
POPE FRANCIS: CLIMATE CHANGE A MORAL ISSUE
Image: Flickr/Catholic Church England and Wales
PUBLIC OPINION IN USA IS CHANGING
Source: UT Energy Poll, annotated by Bloomberg
Source: UT Energy Poll, annotated by Bloomberg
IN CONCLUSION: 2009 VS. 2015
THE POLITICAL AND ‘REAL ECONOMY’ HAVE CHANGED
41
BUT WE ARE NOT THERE YET …
Source: European Environmental Bureau Newsletter # 76, October 2015
BUILDING BRIDGES
• Ratchet mechanism
• Long term goal
• Transparency
• Climate Finance
WE ALL NEED A GOOD OUTCOME IN PARIS
HANG IN THERE !