The Road to Paris - rite.or.jp · PDF fileThe Road to Paris: From Global Commitments to...

The Road to Paris: From Global Commitments to National Pledges and Co-Benefits

ALPS International Symposium, Effective Frameworks and Measures for Climate Change to COP21, hosted by Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) at the Technology International Forum, Tokyo – 27 February 2015

Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology

2015 #2 Nakicenovic 2015 #2 Nakicenovic

Food &

Water

Poverty

& Equity

Energy

& Climate Change

IIASA Research Strategy


Food &

Water

Poverty

& Equity

Energy

& Climate Change

IIASA Research Strategy


Water

Food Energy

IIASA Nexus Research

2015 #5 Nakicenovic

Global Transformations

Peo

ple

Years before present

Hunter-Gatherer

106 105 104 103 102 101 106

107

108

109

1010

1011

100

Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, 1960

2015 #6 Nakicenovic

Global Transformations Neolithic Revolution

Peo

ple

1700 A.D.

Neolithic

7 Million

700 Million

Hunter-Gatherer

5000 B.C.

106 105 104 103 102 101 106

107

108

109

1010

1011

100



2015 #7 Nakicenovic

Global Transformations Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions

Peo

ple

Neolithic

Industrial

7 Million

700 Million

7,000 Million

Hunter-Gatherer

5000 B.C.

106 105 104 103 102 101 106

107

108

109

1010

1011

100

1700 A.D.



2015 #8 Nakicenovic

after present

Anthropocene 12.5 Billion 5 Billion

Source: Lutz & Scherbov, 2007; 2008

106 105 104 103 102 101 101 102 106

107

108

109

1010

1011

100


Peo

ple

1700 A.D.

Neolithic

Industrial

7 Million

700 Million

7,000 Million

Hunter-Gatherer

5000 B.C.

Global Transformations Anthropocene - Toward Sustainability

Sustainability

2015 #9 Nakicenovic

Historical (UN)

IIASA SRES B1 scenario


IIASA SRES A2r scenario

Urbanization World

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: Grubler et al. 2012

Pop

ulat

ion

2015 #10 Nakicenovic

Historical (UN)



IIASA SRES A2r scenario

Urbanization World, UK, BRICs

UK

BRICs

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pop

ulat

ion

Source: Grubler et al. 2012


Primary Education+

Secondary Education+

Global Educational Attainment

Source: Lutz et al., 2007

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pop

ulat

ion


Participatory Governance

Source: Modelski & Perry, 2008; 2010

Participatory

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pop

ulat

ion


Participatory Governance Slavery Abolishment

Source: Nakicenovic & Rogner, 2012;

Participatory

Abolishment

1863 United States

of America

1906 China

1948 UN Declaration

of Human Rights

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pop

ulat

ion


Cumulative Carbon Emissions

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RCP 2.6


1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RCP 2.6



1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RCP 2.6


Net-negative emissions


Legitimacy of BAU eroding

Vision: Sustainable Future

→ Growing number of actors of change:

• green businesses • cities • civil society • science • IGOs (UNIDO etc.)

S us tainability Trans formation “ Doing More with L es s ” within B oundaries

Time

Tran

sfor

mat

ion

Diff

usio

n

Source: WBGU, 2011

→ Increasing problem perception

→ Policy regimes

→ Values and norms


Transformation Drivers Learning from the Past

Normative goals, visions Abolition of slavery, participatory governance, EU

Crises, “gales of creative destruction” The Great Depression, financial crises, disasters

Technology, rapid innovation diffusion Substitution of carriages by cars, IT-revolution

Knowledge, research-driven society Precautionary principle - ozone layer, climate change

Source: Grubler, 2000; WBGU, 2011

2015 #19 Nakicenovic 2015 #19 Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

2030 Energy Goal ●Universal Access to Modern Energy

●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement

●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy

Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

2015 #20 Nakicenovic Source: Global Energy Assessment, 2012

Transformation of Energy Systems One of 41 GEA Pathways

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SOLIDS

LIQUIDS

GRIDS

Fina

l Ene

rgy

2015 #21 Nakicenovic Source: Global Energy Assessment, 2012

Transformation of Energy Systems One of 41 GEA Pathways

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SOLIDS

LIQUIDS

GRIDS

Fina

l Ene

rgy

2015 #22 Nakicenovic 2015 #22 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Mikrochip Kommerzielle

Luftfahrt

Fernseher

Vakuumröhre Ottomotor

Elektrischer Motor

Dampf-maschine

Nuklear- energie

Biomass

Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Global Primary Energy Historical Evolution


EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030

Nuclear phase-out (policy)

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Einsparungen Andere E Nuklear Gas Öl Kohle Biomasse

Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear

Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Biomass

Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil

Gas

~55% renewables by 2030


Gm

3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS

Global Water Withdrawals no CCS, no Nuclear

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas


EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Bio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS

Biomass

Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil

Gas


Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030

~30% renewables by 2030

Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway


EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS

Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – negative CO2


Biomass

Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil

Gas


Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway


Gm

3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – negative CO2


Source: Fricko et al, 2014

Global Water Withdrawals A Transformational Pathway

Carbon Capture and Storage GEA scenarios: World (GtCO2)

O2) 2500

3000

Max ~ 2500 GtCO2

ored

(GtC

O

2000

2500 Max 2500 GtCO2

carb

on s

to

1500

Sup

ply

x

rapid upscaling (2050)

mul

ativ

e c

500

1000 Mix

Effi

cien

cy

Commercialization (2030)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Cum

0

500 E

2015 #29Nakicenovic 2015 #29Nakicenovic

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Transformation possible without CCS (however, needs strong efficiency focus!)

Source: Riahi, GEA


Policy Integration at the Urban Scale

Simulated energy use, urban settlement of 20,000, using the SimCity Model

Source: Grubler et al, 2012


1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Glo

bal C

O2

emis

sion

s (G

tCO

2)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140 IPCC AR5 2 Degree RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 GEA (SE4ALL) reductions of 35-75% by 2050

Peak by 2020

almost zero or negative in the long term RCP 2.6

RCP 4.5

RCP 6.0

RCP 8.5

Global CO2 Emissions


1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(GtC

O2)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16 GEA 2 Degree (>50%) RCP2.6 Pledge

EU CO2 Emissions


1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(GtC

O2)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


USA CO2 Emissions


1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(GtC

O2)

-10

-5

0

5

10


China CO2 Emissions

Co-benefits of GHG Mitigationtcosts

2015 #35Nakicenovic Source: IPCC, Figure 6.33 and TS


Community science organizations critical for a comprehensive assessment

WGI Physical Science

WGII Impacts

Vulnerability Adaptation

WGIII Mitigation

C4MIP (SRES +)

AR4

Some community efforts More loosely organized EMF22 (non-Co2) SRES and non-SRES

SRES and non-SRES studies (highly diverse)

Well organized, long tradition


WGI Physical Science

WGII Impacts

Vulnerability Adaptation

WGIII Mitigation

CMIP5 Inter-comparison Projects EMF 27 (Technology)

AMPERE (Delay & Policy) LIMITS (Burden sharing)

AME (Asian focus) ROSE (Uncertainty)

…..

AR5 ISI-MIP AgMIP

RCPs

SSPs RCPs

Community science organizations critical for a comprehensive assessment


Science for Transformation ● Better integration across science communities

“Climate or development first” approach too narrow ● More integrated & holistic assessment of climate

change policy in the context of other priorities: – Multi-objective & multi-policy framing to better

understand climate policy tradeoffs & benefits – “Nexus” approaches to reach multiple objectives

simultaneously: energy, water, food & urbanization ● Challenges are huge:

– Different constraints and priorities across scales – Normative goals involved in policy prioritization


Climate Change

Maximum Fufillment Minimum Fufillment

Energy Security

Energy Affordability

Health / Air Pollution

Ancilliary Risks

Energy Access

GEA Pathway Analysis

Policy Tools for Decision Making


Jean-Jacques Rousseau

Social contract: “Man is born free, and everywhere he is in chains”

THANK YOU

[email protected]

The Road to Paris - rite.or.jp · PDF fileThe Road to Paris: From Global Commitments to...

Documents

Transcript of The Road to Paris - rite.or.jp · PDF fileThe Road to Paris: From Global Commitments to...