The Race to a Renewable Future Who is Going to Get There First?
description
Transcript of The Race to a Renewable Future Who is Going to Get There First?
The Race to a Renewable FutureWho is Going to Get There First?
Terry Penney, Technology ManagerNREL’s FreedomCAR & Vehicle Technologies Program
November 11, 2005
Transportation and Energy Challenges
• Increasing demand for a finite resource - petroleum• Emission reductions and fuel-economy gains have been
offset by:
More people More cars More vehicle miles traveled More pollution Decreasing fuel economy
Demand for Fuels Outstrips SupplyU.S. Production with Transportation Use (1970-2020)
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2002
Worldwide Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Netherlands
Mexico
France
Other Industrialized Countries
Italy
United Kingdom
Canada
Other Western Europe
Germany
India
Japan
China
Eastern Europe
Other Developing Countries
United States
Million Metric Tons in 2001
Source: Transportation Energy Data Book Edition 20, 2001
U.S. light duty vehicles (LDV) alone are responsible for nearly 5% of world CO2 emissions.
U.S. light duty vehicles (LDV) alone are responsible for nearly 5% of world CO2 emissions.
LDV
Vehicles and Fuels Energy Smart Buildings
Renewables =
So What Are We Doing?Changing the Paradigm
+ +
= A Renewable Community
U.S. Renewable Energy Resources
Pathways for Vehicles and Fuels
Conventional Vehicles
Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles
Hydrogen Powered Vehicles (including
Fuel Cells)
Hydrogen Pathways
hydrocarbonbiomass
H2
H2
H2H2H2
H2
H2H2
water
H2 H2
H2H2H2
H2
H2
e-e- e-e-
e-e- e-e-
H2
fuel cell
e-e- e-
e-
Hydrogen must be derived from other energy sources.
A Next Step: Plug-in Vehicles
A Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) uses today’s hybrid technology, adding a bigger battery and the capability to plug into your garage (or elsewhere) to fuel the battery with electricity.
A Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) uses today’s hybrid technology, adding a bigger battery and the capability to plug into your garage (or elsewhere) to fuel the battery with electricity.
At 3 cents/mile to fill up an electric vehicle, compared to about 11 cents/mile to fill up a gasoline vehicle today, why not make a shift?
At 3 cents/mile to fill up an electric vehicle, compared to about 11 cents/mile to fill up a gasoline vehicle today, why not make a shift?
PHEV
Petroleum Savings Opportunities for HEV, PHEV, and FCHEV
PHEVs provide the best combination of rate and timing to significantly reduce fuel consumption while hydrogen fuel cell (FCHEV) technology is being developed.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Year
Pe
r V
eh
icle
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Fu
el
Sa
vin
gs
(b
arr
els
of
oil
)HEV (15-50%)
PHEV (50-95%)
HEV nominal (30%)
PHEV nominal (75%)
FCHEV nominal (100%)
High Impact PathHigh Impact PathPHEVPHEV
HEV
FCHEV
Source: NREL CTTS’ systems analysis modeling
Source: Base case projection of U.S. electric system capacity from NREL’s WinDS model (based on EIA fuel price projections; EIA 2005 Annual Energy Outlook)
Where Does our Electric Power Come From? Base Case Electricity Capacity
Plug-ins Impact on Renewable WindResults with 50% PHEVs by 2020
Source: High capacity PHEV case projection from NREL’s WinDS model (based on EIA fuel price projections; EIA 2005 Annual Energy Outlook)
PHEVs alone enabled this increase in economic wind
Wind offsets almost all carbon emissions from U.S. LDVs
Wind offsets almost all carbon emissions from U.S. LDVs
Increasing Fuel Economy Helps for Next 2 Decades, But is Not Enough to Offset Long-Term Growth
Source: EIA 2005 Annual Energy Outlook
Plug-in HEVs Require No New Capacity and Even Improve Utility Performance
Assumes utility controlled night-time charging for 50% of the vehicles in this utility district
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
0 2000 4000 6000 8000Hour
Lo
ad (
MW
)
No PHEVs
w/PHEVsPeak Shaving
Night-time charging of PHEV’s
Utility Sized forAnnual Peak
Excess Capacity
Hours at Load Annually
Source: NREL’s analysis office EV load tool
Transportation Fuels Use Today
Transportation Fuels Use Today and Future Scenario
Transportation Fuels Use Today and Future Scenario
Transportation Fuels Use Today and Future Scenario
Pathways for Houses and Buildings
Conventional Buildings
Energy Smart Buildings
Energy Smart Communities with Distributed Energy
Generation
Zero Energy Building:Breaking out the Savings
Site Description
Power Use (kWh)
PV Array Output (AC kWh)
Net Power Use (kWh)
Monthly Cost of Power
PV Output % of Total Loads
Zero Energy Home
837 502 335 $27 60%
Control Home
1,839 0 1,839 $147 0%
Energy Bottom Line
During the month of June 1998, the occupied Zero Energy Home in Florida, consumed only 335 kWh of utility-grid power for all its electrical needs. This compares to 1,839 kWh used by the unoccupied control home for air-conditioning only! The monthly power cost in the Zero Energy home was only 18% of the control home’s power cost.
Distribute Energy to Renewable Communities
4
Today’s Electricity …
Power park
Hydrogen Storage
Industrial DG
Tomorrow’s Choices …
Combined Heat and Power
Fuel Cell
e -
e -
Wind Farms
Rooftop Photovoltaics
Remote Loads
Load as a resource
SMES
Smart Substation
Fuel Cell
Scenario: Energy Flows Two Ways
Current Electrical Generation
RED Arrows:Power sold by central generators to homes and commercial buildings
Green Arrows:Power flowing from buildings back to substations
Future Electrical Generation
A Renewable Community Vision
A state-of-the-art, master planned community using advanced technologies and strategies to:
• Maximize sustainability, economic benefits, quality of life • Minimize environmental impacts • Integrate currently disconnected systems (e.g., transportation and building
energy systems) • Establish a viable community today while leading the transition to the
communities of tomorrow• Develop technologies and approaches applicable to communities worldwide
The community will have aggressive goals using sound strategic business and economic principles, with a short and long term focuses.
10 Critical Elements of a Renewable Community
• Community generates its own energy supply• Design and decisions based on sound business principles• Cost of living in the community is optimized for consumer • Energy conservation features are core• Vehicle miles traveled are substantially reduced • Encourages shared resources to minimize consumption• Pollution is minimal or non-existent• Integrate workplace with living place• Master planned community as an integrated system• Magnet for economic development• A community that people will demand to live in!A community that people will demand to live in!
Barriers/Challenges
Technology• High value, low cost
• Reliable
• Accessible
• Clean
Policies• Stable
• Consistent
• Long-term
Markets• Sustainable
• Accessible
• Competitive
Renewable Community Analysis
NPV $10,129,258 Total Incremental CO2 Emissions (tons) (1,303,688)Return/Household $1,013
General Information Electricity InformationDiscount Rate 10.00% Total Annual Energy Consumption/Household (kWh) 14,000Rate of Inflation 2.50% Average Peak Energy Demand/Household (kW) 4.0
Community Rate Structure (Energy-Only = 0, Energy & Demand = 1) 1Community Profile & Mortgage Information
Number of Homes in Community 10,000Total Cost of Average Home $400,000 Energy Efficiency Dow n Payment $50,000 Energy Savings: Eff iciency Measures in Home (%) 15.00%Interest Rate 6.50% Energy Eff iciency Measures Costs $1,000Interest Rate Discount 0.00% Federal Investment Tax Credit: Energy Eff iciency 10.00%Loan Term (15, 25, or 30 years) 30
Property Tax Rate Discount 0.00% Wind Farm InformationInsurance rate discount from backup pow er source 0.00% Number of Turbines in Community 10Annual Income Level: Average Community Household $125,000 Turbine Size (MW) 1.5
Incremental Cost of Energy Eff iciency Measures ($) $1,450,000Single Tax Filers (%) 50.00% Local Wind Resource (Class 1-7) 6Married Filing Jointly (%) 50.00%Married Filing Separately (%) 0.00% Construction Loan Interest Rate 15.00%Head of Household (%) 0.00% Developer's Loan Term 2
Vehicle Information (V2G & Non-V2G) Annual O&M Costs/Turbine ($/turbine) $25,000V2G size (PHEV 0,10,15,20,25,30,40,60) 10 Insurance Rate/Turbine 1.00%Batteries: Cost/ Usable kWh: $1,000 Land-use Lease Cost/Turbine $3,500Total Other Initial Costs/Vehicle $21,000 Depreciation Sched. (MACRS=0; Double Decline=1; Straight Line=2) 0Incremental Vehicle Costs (PHEV) $1,000 Production Tax Credit $0.019
Wholesale Energy Price ($/kWh) $0.0600Gasoline to electric conversion factor (kWh/gallon) 10.00 Wholesale Energy Esaclation Rate 2.50%Efficiency Benefits of Hybridization 50.00%Fuel Economy: Non-hybrid conventional vehicle (mpg) 30Fuel Economy Grow th Rate: 1.00% PV Information
Size of System/Household (kW) 1.5Vehicle Financing (Purchase = 0; Lease = 1) 0 Average Annual Energy Output (kWh/kW) 1,700Initial Vehicle Permitted in Mortgage? (Yes = 0; No =1) 1 PV Impact on Peak Demand (kW) 0.00Vehicle Lifetime (5 - 10 years) 7 Federal PV Rebate 30.00%Interest Rate 5.00% Maximum Federal Rebate Value $2,000 Lease Term (3 or 4 years) 4Lease Rate 5.00%
State/City Specific InformationGasoline Escalation Rate 4.00% TaxesCost per Gallon Gasoline $2.25 Property Tax Rate 2.80%Average Driving Profile see note A42 Sales Tax Rate 6.50%
Ancillary Services (V2G Vehicles) Electricity Rates see note D47kW Capacity/Vehicle 15.0Time Available to Grid 75.0% RebatesRegulation Rate ($/kW-hr) $0.0000 State/Local PV Rebates ($/w att) $7.00Spinning Reserve Rate ($/kW-hr) $0.000 Maximum Local Rebate Value $15,000 Spinning Reserves Dispatch Rate ($/kWh) $0.000Spinning Reserve Hours Dispatched (%) 5%
Incremental Cash Flows: Community Lifetime
($2,000)
($1,500)
($1,000)
($500)
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Energy
Vehicle Fuel
Vehicles
Mortgages
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Payments
0%
After-Tax Mortgage Vehicle Payments Vehicle Fuel Costs Electricity Costs Total Costs
Non-Renewable Community
Renewable Community
Benefits Can Outweigh the BarriersA Renewable Community Can Cost Less
Than A Non-Renewable Community!
Renewable Community vs. Non-Renewable Community: Lifetime Cash Flows
Selecting Partnerships With
• Auto Manufacturers• Builders• Developers (Land use, water, infrastructure)• Utility Companies• Other Suppliers• City, County, State, Federal Government and Non-Government Entities• Others?
Paving a Way (examples)
• DestiNY Renewable MegaMall: Syracuse, New York• BioTown USA: Indiana• Sarasota, Florida: Resolution to advance plug-in
hybrids and renewables• Austin, Texas: Resolution to advance plug-in hybrids and
renewables• Plug-in Hybrid Prototypes by: Mercedes,
DaimlerChrysler, Toyota (potential), and others• Energy Smart Buildings: Japan, San Diego,
Sacramento, Austin, Chicago, etc.
Renewable Communities for Today and Tomorrow
Will You Be in the Race?