The President III

2/16/2012

Clearly Stated Learning Objectives

• Upon completion of this course, students will be able to:– understand and interpret the United States

Constitution and apply it to the present (the sections on the presidency and Electoral College).

– assess the 2008 & 2012 Presidential Elections without resorting to partisan bickering.

– identify and explain the role of formal and informal institutions and their effect on policy.

Office Hours and Readings

• Readings- Chapter 10 on the Bureaucracy

• Office Hours– Today 11-2– No office hours on Monday

THE WAY TO BECOME PRESIDENTWinning the Electoral College

Who the Electoral College Helps

• Big States

• Small States

• Swing States

It helps the president

Who Does it Hurt

• Third Parties

• Remote States

• Partisan States

WINNING THE ELECTIONIt is not rocket science!

Electoral College Do’s and Don’ts

DO• Treat the Race as 51

separate elections

• Win Your Home State

• Win your V-P’s State

Don’t• Spend time where you can’t

win

• Spend time where you will win

• Spend time in remote areas

Ignore Popular Votes and Focus on the Map

Focus on the Swing States

• These are the states that matter

• The Electoral College is Winner take all

• Obama wins 10 of 11 swing states in 2008

Spend!

Avoid The October Surprise

RUNNING THE NUMBERS IN 2012The Electoral College Still Favors the Democrats

President Obama Will be Tough To beat

• The Last incumbents who lost were– 1992– 1980– 1976

• President Obama has no primary challenger

• The President plans to spend 1 billion dollars

A Republican Win: Step 1

A Republican Win Step 2

A Republican Win Step 3

A Republican Win Step 4

REFORMING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Not Bloody Likely

A National Popular Vote

• How it Would Work

• Advantages

A National Popular Vote

• Disadvantages

• Unanticipated Consequences

THE CONSTITUTIONAL BASIS OF PRESIDENTIAL POWER

Not that Great

The Founders Vision

• There needs to be an executive

• The balance between impotence and tyranny

• The office has outstripped this vision

The Formal Powers are Limited

• Serve as administrative head

• Lead the armed forces

• Appointment, pardons and treaties

• Give a speech

• Call emergency

The Modern Responsibilities are Not

• The President is now the dominant branch

• It performs many new functions

• We expect the president to solve the world’s problems!

USING OTHER POWERSPresidential Success

The President

• Constitutional powers are

– Vague– Limited

• The Demands of the Office are Great

• Presidents must then use all the tools at their disposal

The Vice President

• Picked for different purposes

• Limited Constitutional Power

• At the discretion of the President

• Can be a liability• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hZtW_q_6Ug&feature=r

elated

Why did McCain Choose Palin?

• Get space between himself and Bush

• Get someone who was not an old man

• Get someone to appeal to the conservative base

• McCain loses no matter who he picks

Executive Stuff

Executive Orders• Carry the weight of law

• Must be on a single issue

• Cannot require new revenues

• Die when the president leaves

Executive Agreements• Bilateral agreements with

other nations

• Carry the weight of a treaty

• Not that great of a power

• The Senate hates these

The Veto

• The “Smart Bomb” in the legislative process

• Most vetoes are sustained

• Can be overused

• Threats work better

INFORMAL POWERSPolitics by other Means

The Power to Persuade

• Richard Neustadt

• Presidential Power is the Power To Persuade

Persuasion

• What is Persuasion

• You have to convince them by what ever means necessary

• Getting Decision makers to do what you want– The Johnson Treatment

Getting things Done: Trading Favors

• Prestige of the office

• Granting New Favors

• Calling in Past Favors

Getting Things Done: Reprisals

• Monetary Threats

• Campaign Threats

• Policy Threats

Why Persuasion Fails

• Threats are Not Credible

• Favors are not worth it

• Electoral Security and temporal forces

Why President Obama is Currently having difficulty persuading

• Republicans do not want to compromise

• Democrats are already on board

• The Election is getting close

Everything is inside