WEB 2.0 AND THE DATA ECONOMYJust Because We Can Doesn’t Mean We Should(even though we probably will)

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ABOUT JOHN PARKINSONCHAIRMAN AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, PARKWOOD ADVISORS LLC

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30+ years in technology 20+ years in consulting Published author and columnist

(CIO Insight) World’s top 25 most influential

consultants (2003) Computerworld 100 Leaders in IT (2005) Retired head of Innovation and Strategy

at Ernst & Young LLP (September 2001) Retired CTO of Capgemini (July 2005) External Director, TeleGuam Holdings

LLC; Tap.tv Board of Advisors: Brulant, Inc. ; InSORS

Communications; Skyline Data, Inc. Kanterra, Inc.

parkijo@att.net+1 847 235 1791www.parkwoodadvisors.biz

COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER:

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ParkWood Advisors LLC 2007. All rights reserved.

Reproduction or translation of any part of this work, beyond that permitted by Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without the permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Requests for permission or further information should be addressed to John Parkinson at ParkWood Advisors LLC..

This presentation is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard of the subject matter covered. It is made available with the understanding that the intent is not to render legal, investment, accounting or other professional advisory services.

If investment advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.

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AGENDA (TO SOME EXTENT) May 1

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Some observations on the human condition….

Some definitions…. Some

opportunities…. Some issues…. Some additional

thoughts…. An opportunity to

disagree….

"You've got to be very careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there." 

Yogi Berra

SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE HUMAN CONDITION“When you come to a fork in the road – take it”

Yogi Berra

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SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE HUMAN CONDITION

We talk in absolutes, but act incrementally and heterogeneously

We project the future linearly, but evolve hyperbolically

Discontinuities are far less common than people think

Inertia is a force to be reckoned with Writing about the future doesn’t mean it will

happen that way People, given the choice, will avoid having to

think hard

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Versio

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Voice Crossover: August 2000

4x/Year

2.8x/Year

ARPA & NSF Data to 96

2001 Measurements

Limit of same % as GDP

Sustained at 4x/Year

Government & Research

Commerce, including VoIP

Collaborative Work

50 YEARS OF TRAFFIC GROWTH

Consumer Peer to Peer

Petabit threshold

Exabit threshold

1Gbps

1Tbps

10Tbps

100Gbps

10Gbps

100Tbps

100Mbps

1Kbps

1Mbps

10Mbps

100Kbps

10Kbps

100 bps

1 Pbps

100 Pbps

10 Pbps

10 bps10 bps

1 Ebps

10 Ebps

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

100 Ebps

1 Zbps

10 Zbps

Zettabit threshold

NEW CAPABILITIES CHANGE BEHAVIOR IN UNPREDICTABLE WAYS

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RelativeImpact of Capability

On behavior

Mainstream Collaboration

time

The “new”

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

MinicomputersShared digital documents

All-in-one & PROFSBasic email

Fax

PC & LANEmail & Voicemail

SpreadsheetsWord processing

ISDN & basic VTCCell Phones

Internet2.5G Cell Phones

IM & Advanced MessagingPowerPoint & Rich media

P2PWi-Fi

Converged IP NetworksBlackberry & UMTS

Immersive PresenceAgents & Rules

Shared WorkflowDRM

BANDWAGONS TEND TO ATTRACT BANDS

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This is just the first 50 of more than 1000 “Web 2.0” brands you canbrowse on:

www.web2logo.com

(SOME OF) THE PEOPLE FORMALLY KNOWN AS THE AUDIENCE….

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….(seem to) WANT TO PARTICIPATE

CONSEQUENCES

Mobs are generally not very smart (sorry Howard) although (small) crowds are sometimes capable of wisdom (way to go James!)

The world is not even approximately flat yet (sorry Tom) although some (small) regions are getting that way because of the light speed limit

Everything is noise without the right filters Just because everyone believes it doesn't

make it true It’s hard to break in and even harder to break

out Business as usual is the norm, because it

requires no customer learning effort (sorry Chris, Rick, Doc & David)

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SOME DEFINITIONS“Some people, if they don’t already know, you can’t tell them”Yogi Berra

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I don’t know what it is but you need a new one….

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Business Webs - compose on demand

Event Driven

Functional Accuracy

Task Driven

Building functions & task enablement

Functional Integration

Procedure Driven

Joining functions & tasks to create procedures

ERP – shared data

Data Driven

Integrating procedures to create end to end processes across the Enterprise

Finding & connecting capabilities from different sources in real-time, to support the dynamic nature of sense & respond

Modelling the probability of connections being made to ensure end to end services & optimum value

Business Networks - shared processes

Process Driven

Extending processes across the network to create services & value from the Eco-System.Hard-wired and soft-wired connections

Where we are today

Functionally-oriented Architectures Process-oriented Architectures

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FOR THE PURPOSES OF THIS DISCUSSION ONLY…….

Service delivery and instantiation models

Service execution environment design

Service composition and interaction

expectations

Service experience and economics

SaaSSaaS

SOASOA

Web 2.0Web 2.0BUT WHERE’S THE DATA?

=

=

=

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WHERE’S THE DATA? Everywhere and nowhere: The web vs. the

corporate data landfill vs. the personal storage device vs. wetware (and then there’s analog history)

Bounded by ownership and custom and structure (or lack of it)

Unbound by metadata and inference and algorithms (and carelessness with tags)

Hard to find, maintain, trust, understand….

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ONE THINGS FOR CERTAIN: REALLY VALUABLE INFORMATION WANTS TO BE EXPENSIVE (sorry Stewart)

SOME OPPORTUNITIES“You can observe a lot just by watching”

Yogi Berra

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“AND” IN A WORLD OF “OR”

Choice without compromise In-house where it matters Hosted for variable load management On demand (or at least on the net) for the rare (or

frequent but intermittent) occasion when….. Stability and agility

It just works (the way I want) – all the time It’s up to date – all the time and without disruption

Richness and reach Personalization that works for me Standardization under the hood (so I can afford it)

People and technology

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WEB 2.0 IS ABOUT MORE THAN SOFTWARE

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BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE NOT PERIPHERALS – AND PERIPHERALS ARE NOT PEOPLE

SO EVERY COMPANY IS A “MEDIA” COMPANY – LIKE IT OR NOT (MOST WON’T)

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SOME ISSUES“In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is”

Yogi Berra

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AND NOW FOR THE HARD PARTS (1 OF N)

Security and trust: What’s inside the black box? Where does your data really live and how and where does it travel…..

Standards: The right amount soon enough….

Performance: When everybody wants the same thing, right now….

Licensing and pricing and billing and getting paid: Markets, trading and arbitrage

Interaction and interoperability: Many small parts widely separated (sorry David)

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AND NOW FOR THE HARD PARTS (2 OF N)

Ownership and control: Ideas and code and script and look & feel….

Customization and extensibility: Because we are never really satisfied with just your ideas….

Recovery from failure: Because we still have to deal with Entropy and people….

User centered design challenges: Too rich for some mere mortals….

Rediscovering semiotics: So the message doesn’t get lost in the medium….

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AND NOW FOR THE HARD PARTS (3 OF N)

Connectivity is vital, but broadband is a myth created by US (and European) telephone companies and cable system operators (honorable exception: Verizon)

All the really good data is locked up so you can’t get at it (without joining a club you may not qualify for)

Peer group selection pressure is a barrier to broad social networks (for most of us)

Capital concentration and leverage favors a smart incumbent (but you can still change the game, here and there)

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SOME ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future”

Yogi Berra

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WHERE WE ARE TODAY…..

Visualization changes the game in valuing data Zurich ATC example http://wpf.netfx3.com/direct/zurich/zeuswpf.xbap Otto Retail Store Experience http://www.otto.de/vista

Business “applications” are still struggling to incorporate a “rich” experience

Games lead the way but are still challengingly complex to develop (worse than movies). Maybe evolution is the answer?

“Code for Fun” approaches target “amateur” developers: Lessons from the “Makers Faire” community

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WHERE WE ARE TODAY….A BRIEF WORD ON SENSORS

Cameras, cameras everywhere, but not a lot to see

Cell phones as environmental sensors Most sensor data isn’t significant so long as

you know the sensor is working Event correlation matters as much as event

detection Spoofing strategies are still emerging Mesh might be an answer but: how granular?

Location? Mobility? Cost? Still need a power supply and a network

connection

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WHERE WE ARE TODAY

Legal and regulatory environments are out of alignment with technology capabilities and mercantile capitalism

Provenance and reputation make collaborative sources interesting but suspect (sorry Don)

Information leakage makes pricing data very hard and protecting information assets almost impossible

The Long Tail requires much better “findability”: If search is the answer, what’s the question?

Anyone can join in, but relatively few can create anything worthwhile (alone or as a mob)

The really hard parts still require genius and insight: mass isn’t enough

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QUESTIONS & COMMENTS: AN OPPORTUNITY TO DISAGREEWelcome to the future – however it turns out

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