The Politics of Brazilian Democracy: Lessons for Latin ......Outline of Presentation •Part 1:...

The Politics of Brazilian Democracy:

Lessons for Latin America?

Timothy J. Power

COMFAMA Oxford

13 May 2014

Outline of Presentation

• Part 1: Brazil 1994-2014 — Rising Performance, Rising Consensus

• Part 2: The Lula Years — and the Transition to Dilma

• Part 3: Scenarios for Brazil, 2014

Context of 2014

• The largest election in the history of Latin America

• President, 27 governors, 27 senators, 513 federal deputies, 1059 state level

• Today, 140 million voters

• The 7th election under democracy

• The second without Lula (!?)

Consensus: Lessons for Latin America?

• Over the past 15 years, Brazil has evolved into a bi-coalitional system, with several points of (reasonable) consensus:

• 1. macroeconomic policy

• 2. social policy

• 3. revised federal equilibrium

• 4. coalitional presidentialism

• 5. renewed international projection

Collor 1990-92 / Sarney 1985-90 / Lula 2003-10 / Dilma / FHC 1995-2002

Number of Finance Ministers since January 1st, 1995, selected countries

Country Number of Ministers

Japan 18

Argentina 15

France 13

Uruguay 9

Mexico 7

United States 7

Chile 5

Germany 5

United Kingdom 4

Brazil 3

E pluribus duo

Election Year

PT + PSDB Chamber

(%)

PT + PSDB President

(%)

1994 27 81

1998 31 85

2002 33 70

2006 38 90

2010 35 80

Real GDP per capita 1964-2008 (constant 2008 reais)

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Military Regime Democratic Regime

Poverty Rates, 1980-2012

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10,00

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40,00

50,00

POVERTY EXTREME POVERTY

Source: IPEADATA.


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10,00

20,00

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40,00

50,00


Source: IPEADATA.

Debt Crisis


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50,00


Cruzado Plan

Source: IPEADATA.

Debt Crisis


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Cruzado Plan

Hyper-Inflation

Source: IPEADATA.

Debt Crisis


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Cruzado Plan

Hyper-Inflation

Source: IPEADATA.

Debt Crisis

FHC Policies


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Cruzado Plan

Hyper-Inflation

Lula Policies

Source: IPEADATA.

Debt Crisis

FHC Policies

Real Minimum Wage and Household Income Per Capita, 1980-2012

200

400

600

800

1000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

REAL MINIMUM WAGE (constant reais of Feb 2014)

HOUSEHOLD INCOME P/C (constant reais of Oct 2012)

Source: IPEADATA.

Importance of Bolsa Família

• Families earning < R$140 per head get R$102 plus $32 per child (max benefit currently R$262, average is R$152, roughly USD $68)

• In 2004, program was reaching 59% of eligible families

• In 2005, 77%; from 2007, close to 100%

• Currently about 13.8 million families

Inequality and HDI, 1980-2012

0,500

0,550

0,600

0,650

0,700

0,750

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

GINI HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX

Sources: IPEADATA and UNHDR 2013.

Income Differentials: Ratio of 10% Richest to 40% Poorest, 1980-2012

12,00

15,00

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24,00

27,00

30,00

33,00

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

RATIO OF 10% RICHEST TO 40% POOREST

Source: IPEADATA.

Socioeconomic Classifications, 2003, 2011, and 2014 (projected, CPS-FGV)

CPS/FGV Data on Class Structure

Other indicators of rising standards of living

• Besides GDP, Gini, wages, education, some non-obvious indicators:

• Access to communication

• Access to automobiles

• Access to travel

• Expansion of consumer credit

• Credit/GDP: 24% in 2005, and over 56% now

Part 2 From Lula to Dilma

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)

The Economic Record of Lula Year

Real GDP Growth (%)

Unemployed (%)

Inflation Rate (%)

2003

1.1

12.3

9.3

2004

5.7

11.5

7.6

2005

3.2

9.8

5.7

2006

4.0

9.3

3.1

2007

5.7

8.7

4.5

2008 5.1 8.0 5.9

2009 -0.2 8.1 4.4

2010 7.5 6.9 5.2

Evaluation of Lula government, 2003-2010 source: CNT/Sensus

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60,00

70,00

OTIMO/BOM RUIM/PESSIMO

A Digression: Who is Dilma Rousseff?

Dilma Vana Rousseff (b. Belo Horizonte, 14 December 1947)

Political Activities

• 1967: joins Política Operária, faction of old PSB, via Cláudio Galeno

• 1968: joins COLINA (Comando de Libertação Nacional) in Minas Gerais, meets Carlos Araújo

• 1969: merges with VAR Palmares

• 1970: arrested in São Paulo

• 1970-1973: in prison

Dilma Rousseff

interrogation, Auditoria Militar

do Rio de Janeiro, November 1970

age: 22

After Release

• 1977: finishes economics at UFRGS

• 1978: begins MA at Unicamp

• 1980: Carlos Araújo helps Brizola found the PDT in Rio Grande do Sul

• 1980s: Dilma works for PDT-RS and for state government statistical agency

• 1991-1994: State Secretary of Energy under Gov. Alceu Collares (PDT)

• 2000: reappointed by Olívio Dutra, divorces Araújo, joins PT

Joining the Cabinet

• 2003: Minister of Mines and Energy

• 2005: Presidential Chief of Staff

• 2009: Cancer treatment

• 2010: Designated by Lula as future PT candidate

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40,0

50,0

60,0

31-m

ay

15-ju

n

30-ju

n

15-ju

l

30-ju

l

14-a

go

29-a

go

13-s

ep

28-s

ep

DILMA (PT)

SERRA (PSDB)

MARINA (PV)

Voting intentions, 1 June-2 October Average of DataFolha and IBOPE polling Includes undecided, blank, and null vote intentions

Predicted support from electorate: 47.0 Actual support: 35.1



46.9% of valid votes



3rd October Results

Vote distribution by município in 2002 elections

Second round results

Candidate Votes Percentage of Valid Votes

Dilma (PT) 55,752,629 56.05

Serra (PSDB) 43,711,388 43.95

Totals 99,464,017 100.0

Voting

intentions,

eve of

second

round

29-30

October

2010

N = 6279 adults

Source:

DataFolha

What are some of the legacies of the Lula years? Cleavages, lessons?

• This is not an exhaustive list

• Please suggest other legacies or lessons for further exploration!

Lesson 1: The left cannot govern alone

Election Year Did the PT make alliances outside

of the left?

Did the PT win the presidential

election?

1989 NO NO

1994 NO NO

1998 NO NO

2002 YES YES

2006 YES YES

2010 YES YES

Lesson 2: Politics as usual has a price

Lesson 3: party-CSO relationships are complex

Lesson 4: Opposition is Hell

311 111

91

GOVERNMENT

OPPOSITION

OTHERS

How the Chamber of Deputies looks as of February 2011

Emerging Cleavages: Class, Region

• The 2006 and 2010 elections saw a clearer regional divide than at any time since the military regime.

• The 2006 and 2010 elections saw a clearer class basis of voting than at any time under democracy.

• However, class voting is really only evident at the presidential level: for other offices there are few clear patterns.

Emerging Cleavages: Culture Wars and “Wedge Issues”

• The 2010 campaign saw mainstream media polarizing the election, hostile to PT

• “Wedge issues” are being tried out:

• affirmative action

• abortion and religiosity

• memory of 1960s

• “welfare dependency” arguments

• foreign policy

Dilma as President: Differences? • A president who starts with reduced authority

over the PT and over the coalition

• A president without the “Teflon cushion” that protected Lula in 2005-2006

• A vice president (Michel Temer) representing a larger and more proactive partner (PMDB)

• Relationships to PT, to coalition partners, and to Lula himself are all interconnected

Policy Signals: Subtle Differences from Lula?

• Recognition of creeping inflation: SELIC rate upped twice before cut (now 11.0)

• Reining in Lula-era spending: cuts of R$50b in federal spending for 2011 (USD $30b)

• Limits first increase in minimum wage

• Changes at Itamaraty: policy & personnel reviews under way

• Dilma signals greater interest in transitional justice issues (at inauguration, with Madres, with appointments at MJ)

Emphasizing Transitional Justice

Part 3 Scenarios for Brazil, 2014

Context: Does the Slowdown Matter?

Context: Did the Protests Matter?

Source: IPSOS Pulso, 2005-2013, cited by Christopher Garman and Clifford

Young, Reuters blog post, June 2013.

Context: Does the World Cup Matter?

Dilma is strongest in

Northeast and among poorer

voters

PT Presidential Gains After Lula’s Inauguration in 2003, by State HDI

Sources: IPEADATA and TSE.

Y axis: average 1st round

PT vote share in 2006+2010

minus same for 1998+2002

(N=27). R = -.707 sig at .001

Most incumbents are reelected

65% of mayors and 70% of governors who try

Incumbents Seeking Reelection: How were they faring on the eve?

Approval as “ótimo + bom”

28%

Dec.

2005

37%

Dec.

1997

41%

Dec.

2013

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60,0

70,0

OTIMO-BOM RUIM-PESSIMO

APPROVAL OF DILMA ROUSSEFF

JANUARY 2011 — APRIL 2014

STREET PROTESTS

JUNE 2013

Candidates in Play in 2014

Presidential Polling Last 30 Days

Candidate Vox 6-8 Apr

IBOPE 10-14 Apr

CNT/MDA 21-25 Apr

Sensus 22-25 Apr

DataFolha 7-8 May

30-DAY AVERAGE

Dilma (PT) 40 37 37 34 37 37.0

Aécio (PSDB)

16 14 22 20 20 18.4

Campos (PSB)

8 6 11 8 11 8.8

Others 2 5 2 4 7 4.0

Blank/Null/DK

33 37 29 34 24 31.4

The Secret Weapon coming soon to a TV near you: 19th August to 2nd October


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Source: IPEADATA.

Conclusions: was it really that easy?

Thank you

[email protected]

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