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The Perfect Storm?

John Gay, DVM PhD DACVPMAssoc. Professor of Epidemiology

AAHP Field Disease Investigation Unit

Washington State University

Pullman, WA

Global Change and Livestock Production: 

I predict that a “perfect storm” is approaching livestock production

On the other hand, I may well be sawing my limb off

Warning:My "Crystal" Ball is a 

Brunswick

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The most important perspective is global

TerrestrialBiosphere

This biomantleproduces our food!

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Practical terrestrial biosphere thickness = 0.0005 of earth’s radius

View from Space Shuttle at altitude of 250 miles

Life dramatically affected the earth’s history

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Stage 1 (3.8–2.4 Ga)

No atmospheric O2

Great Oxygenation

Event

~2,500 new of ~4,500 minerals

appeared

Biogeochemistry

Billion years

Cyanobacteria began

photosynthesis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxygenation_Event

Agriculture developed during a period of unusual climate stability

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoclimatology5

Historical Earth Temperature

Agriculture began in ~7 places around

world 7-10 K yrs ago

Two components:Mean & Variation

The key to surface temperature is the atmospheric energy balance, Wm‐2 in = out

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http://climateprediction.net/content/basic-climate-science

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Atmospheric components block long wave radiation

7 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

Atmospheric CO2 level is a focus of concern and for mitigation

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Keeling Curve

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve

The CO2 change contribution is physically small

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1750 – 2005 change in radiation forcinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report

From the global perspective, the big factors driving change are:• Global Climate Variability, Change

• Increasing regional Fresh Water Scarcity 

• Regional Soil Depletion and Salinization 

• Emerging Infectious Agents – Virus, Bacteria, Parasites 

• Regional Human Population Expansion

• Genetic Diversity Threats ‐ Invasive, Extinction

• Increasing Petroleum Scarcity and declining EROEI

• Economic Globalization

These factors interrelate in very complex waysSolutions to one problem often increase another problem

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World map adjusted for population

Nature 439, 800 (16 February 2006) http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/cartograms/

http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/worldmapper/index.html

20%1.3B

Jan 2013 - 7,062,820,678

17%1.1B

5%0.3B

3%0.2B

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population

http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html

3%0.2B

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During your career, population will grow ~50%

World food production must increase by ~50%!

Where will that additional food come from?

U.S Census Bureau International Data Basehttp://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/

FAO Food Outlookhttp://www.fao.org/giews/english/fo/index.htm

1o Human Foodstuffs:1. Wheat                (  80%)2. Rice                     (100%)3. Coarse Grains    (  22%)

2013 ?

10 Billion

7 Billion

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Consuming animal‐origin foodstuffs doesn’t cause world hunger

Myth:

• Reducing U.S. meat consumption 10% = grain to feed 60 million starving people in LDC’s

Economic Fact:

• Reducing all U.S. animal‐origin product consumption 10% = 3 ‐ 4 calories per day to 4.7 billion in LDC’s

http://www.arec.umd.edu/people/faculty/howard‐leathers

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Livestock are concentrated in regions

http://www.fao.org/AG/againfo/resources/en/glw/Modelled_maps/cattle_modelled‐2005.jpg14

Global Cattle Density: Head / km2

Highest poultry densities are in the Pacific Rim

40% of global poultry production

Avian influenza H5N1 remains endemic here

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http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/maps/9‐8_m_GlobalLivestock.pdf

Livestock population density mirrors Human population

Disease density mirrors population density

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Global arable (cultivatable) land is declining 

http://www.earth‐policy.org/books/out/out_table_of_contents

Arable land:

• 1.5 billion hectares

• Takes 0.25 hectares to feed each person 

• Maximum in early 1980’s, now declining

– erosion

– salinization

– desertification

– diversion

Google “Outgrowing the Earth” to read the on-line version

http://www.sare.org/Learning-Center/Books/Building-Soils-for-Better-Crops-3rd-Edition

Optimizing soil health is crucial to food production

http://soils.usda.gov/sqi/concepts/soil_biology/biology.html

Increasing and maintaining soil organic matter is key18

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We are currently using arable soil 20 to 100 times faster than natural processes produce it

Crop agriculture is not sustainable without re‐integrating livestock, particularly ruminants

David Montgomery

• Professor of Geomorphology, U Washington http://gis.ess.washington.edu/grg/

• 2008 MacArthur Fellow, $500,000 “genius” award

• Viewing soil as a biological rather than as a chemical system

The future of livestock agriculture is excellent; how and where we do it will change

Human population growth rates are highest in LDC’s

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growthhttps://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the‐world‐factbook/rankorder/2002rank.html

Rule of 72: Population doubles in ~72 / (%rate)Zimbabwe ~ 16 years, 3% ~ 24 years

Qatar – 4.9%

1143

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Livestock producer education is poor in LDC’s

Education Level Number Percentage

• 90% have a primary school education or less

Can LDC producers understand the "how" and "why" of climate change mitigation sufficiently to optimize food production?

Indonesia Livestock Producers

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Global water situation is tight in some areas

> 75% of flows allocated to agriculture, industry, domestic use

Unmet water needs due to lack of infrastructure (dams, piping)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/21_08_06_world_water_week.pdf22

Projected global climate change by season

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page6.php

DecJanFeb

JunJulAug

20% precipitation increase

20% precipitation decrease

The dairy cow has the highest per lb water requirement of land 

mammals

no precipitation change

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Climate change consequences are already apparent in the Pacific Northwest

• More winter precipitation falling as rain instead of snow

• Increased winter streamflows

• Increased winter flood risks in transient (rain/snow mix) basins

• Reduced snow water storage, particularly in mid‐elevations 

• Earlier snow melt and peak runoff (10 to 30 days)

• Decreased late spring and summer streamflows

The Result: The paradox of more winter flooding and more summer drought

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http://www.ef.org/westcoastclimate/D_PNW%20impacts.pdf

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Ogallala‐High Plains Aquifer useful life is declining

http://www.kgs.ku.edu/HighPlains/maps/ofr2005_8_eul_400y_2000_2005.jpg

< 20 yrs

Fillingnow

Average Rainfall

33 inches

12 inches

Higher intensity wx events> More runoff, less recharge

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From my limb I predict that climate change will have a big impact on livestock diseases

Vector‐borne diseases will provide the nastiest surprises for livestock production

Global climate change

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Climate change will likely expand many vector‐borne disease ranges

Small climate changes can:

• Markedly shift ranges of tick species

– Ticks are vectors of nasty bovine disease agents

• Markedly alter mosquito populations

• Reduce keystone species, destabilizing vulnerable ecosystems

– Allows proliferation of invasive species

However, due to the many factors involved vector‐borne disease ecology is very complex, making prediction difficult and uncertain!

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The dynamics of complex systems are difficult to comprehend 

Big factors driving change:

• Human Population Expansion

• Fresh Water Scarcity

• Soil Depletion 

• Fossil Fuel Scarcity

• Globalization

• Emerging Infectious Agents 

• Global Climate Change

• Genetic Diversity Decrease 

Tough positive and negative feedback loops with time lags link all of these factors and problem solutions

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Understanding and mitigating climate change effects requires a systems thinking approach

Careful critical thinking that:

• Is based on empirical scientific evidence

• Allows for the occurrence of unintended consequences

• Avoids the “silo effect”

• Avoids “framing”– http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framing_(social_sciences)

• Detects “illusions of explanatory depth” (IOED)

• Includes all the relevant systems

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http://www.agroecology.org/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_thinking

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future"

Who said this?

Niels Bohr, Danish physicist

not

Lawrence Peter “Yogi” Berra

Always check your sources!

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