The Perfect Demographic Storm: Extending the Benefits of Higher Education to the Next Wave of...

The Perfect Demographic Storm: Extending the Benefits of Higher

Education to the Next Wave of Students

MASFAA ConferenceNovember 15-17, 2006

Julie Shields-RutynaEducational Manager, The College Board New England Regional Office

Rob CallahanNortheast Regional ManagerCollege Board Education Loan Program

Agenda

• Most recent trends

• Institutional

• Federal and state

• Demographics

• The Social Divide

• The Widening Gap

• Social Implications

• Future Work

Tuition and Fees: 10-Year Growth Projection

$2,076

$5,132

$9,364

$20,082

$34,760

$0

$2,500

$5,000

$7,500

$10,000

$12,500

$15,000

$17,500

$20,000

$22,500

$25,000

$27,500

$30,000

$32,500

$35,000

$37,500

94-95

95-96

96-97

97-98

98-99

99-00

00-01

01-02

02-03

03-04

04-05

05-06

06-07

07-08

08-09

09-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

2-yr public 4-yr public 4-yr private

$2,874

Institutional Trends

Distribution of Full-Time Undergraduates at Four-Year Institutions by Published Tuition and Fee Charges, 2006-07

Source: Annual Survey of Colleges, The College Board, New York, NY.

Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing, 2006


Tuition and Fees/ Median Income

16.9% 21.5%26.1%

96.8%

84.0%73.1%

47.3%57.7%

72.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

94-95

95-96

96-97

97-98

98-99

99-00

00-01

01-02

02-03

03-04

04-05

05-06

06-07

07-08

08-09

09-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

Est. 4 year Public tuition & fees as % median income black & Hispanic

4 year Private tuition & fees as % median income white

Est. 4 year Private tuition & fees as % median income black & Hispanic

4 year Public tuition & fees as % median income white


Average Published Tuition and Fee

Charges in Constant (2006) Dollars, 1976-77 to 2006-07 (Enrollment-Weighted)

Source: Tables 3a, 3b, 4a, and 4b, and data online (collegeboard.com/trends).



Average Published Tuition, Fee, Room, and Board (TFRB) Charges at Four-Year Institutions in Constant (2006) Dollars, 1976-77 to 2006-07 (Enrollment-Weighted)



Sample Average Undergraduate Budgets, 2006-07 (Enrollment-Weighted)



Inflation-Adjusted Changes in Tuition and Fees, Family Income, and Student Aid 1985-86 to 1995-96 and 1995-96 to 2005-06

Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2006

140% 14%From 1985-2006


Average Aid Per Full-Time Equivalent Student in Constant (2005) Dollars, 1985-86 to 2005-06



Estimated Student Aid by Source for Academic Year 2005-06 in Current Dollars (in Billions)

Institutional & Federal Trends


Growth of Stafford, PLUS, and Nonfederal (Private) Loan Dollars in Constant (2005) Dollars, 1995-96 to 2005-06

Federal Trends

Source: NPSAS: 1993, 1996, 2000, and 2004,

Undergraduates; calculations by authors.


Median Debt Levels of Undergraduate Degree Recipients Who Borrowed by Degree and Institution Type in Constant (2003) Dollars, 1992-93 to 2003-04

Federal Trends

Source: NPSAS: 2004, Undergraduates; calculations by authors.


Distribution of Total Debt Levels of Degree Recipients, 2003-04

Federal Trends


Federal Aid Funds by Type of Institution, 2004-05

Federal Trends


Grants Versus Loans, Percent Share of Total Aid 1991-92 to 2005-06

Federal Trends


Ten-Year Trend in Funds Used to Finance Postsecondary Education Expenses 1995-96 to 2005-06

Federal Trends


Maximum Pell As a Percentage of Published Tuition, Fee, Room, and Board (TFRB) Charges at Public and Private Four-Year Colleges and Universities 1985-86 to 2005-06

Federal Trends

Source: Tables 2, 3, 8a, and 8b In Trends in Student Aid 2006.


Number of Pell Grant Recipients 1975-76 to 2005-06

Federal Trends

Demographics: The Social Divide

Note: Enrollment rates correspond to the percentage of high school completers who are enrolled in college in October of the year of high school graduation. Family income quintiles for 2003: lowest quintile = $16,399 or less; second quintile = $16,400 ﾐ $31,099; third quintile = $31,100–$48,399; fourth quintile = $48,400–$78,799; and highest quintile = $78,800 and higher.

Family Income and College Enrollment

• College

Enrollment Rates

by Famil

y Income

Levels,

• 1982 -2003

Source: NCES, unpublished tabulation using data from the Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, 1982 ﾐ 2003.


Source: The College Board, Education Pays, Second Update, 2006

College Enrollment Among Males and Females by

Race/Ethnicity Ages 16–24, 2004

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004, Table 13; calculations by authors.


Socioeconomic Status, Math Test Scores, and Level of

Education



Income Distribution of Families Within Private Colleges Grouped by Tuition and Fee Charges, 2003-04



Income Distribution of Families Within Public Two-Year and Four-Year Institutions, 2003-04


Minority Group Enrollment by Institution Type

63%59%

57%

51%

42%

37%41%

43%

49%

58%

White Non-Hisp Asian Black Non-Hisp American Indian Hispanic

Four-Year Two-Year


Widening Gap: The Benefits Are Not Evenly Distributed

Possible conclusion

• What this means for our country: Total Expenditures on Postsecondary Education As a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 2003

Demographics: The Widening Gap

Demographic Changes Will Widen the Access Gap

• Demographic winds of change are blowing

• Next wave of high school graduates will look much different than today

• Number of high school graduates increasing• Increases in underrepresented minorities

• Increases in some areas of country but not others

• Increased numbers of lower income students

• Rising tuition and fees make colleges appear unaffordable


Projected Number of Public High School Graduates to 2018

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Source: WICHE/The College Board


Projected Number of High School Graduates by Ethnicity


0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Non-Public White Black Asian Hispanic American Indian


Number of High School Graduates, 1994-2018: By College Board Region


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

New England Middle States Midwest South Southwest West


The Personal and Societal Benefits of Higher Education

• Most think of benefits of college education in personal terms• Higher standard of living

• Wider opportunities

• Societal benefits fundamental to well-being of nation

• College Board publication, Education Pays, highlights both private and public benefits

Social Impact of Education

Median Annual Earnings by Level of Education and Age: 2005


Source: U.S. Census Bureau,

2006, PINC-03.



Source: U.S. Census Bureau,

2006, PINC-03.

Distribution of Annual Earnings by Level of Education, Ages 35–44, 2005


Median Earnings by Race/Ethnicity andEducation Level, 2003: Ages 25–34



Median Annual Earnings Relative to Earnings of High School Graduates,

Males and Females Ages 25–34, 1975–2005

Source: National Center for Education

Statistics (NCES), 2004, Table 14-1,

NCES, 2006, Table 22-1 (based on U.S.

Census Bureau, Current Population

Survey) and U.S. Census Bureau, 2006. PINC-03.


Source: CDC, 2004a

Health• Percentage of Mothers Age 20 and Older Who Smoked During Pregnancy, 1989–2002


Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004b, Table 1; U.S. Census Bureau, 2000; calculations by the authors.

VotingReported Voting Rates Over

Time by Education Level 1980 - 2004



Source: Education

Longitudinal Study (ELS),

2002; calculations by authors.

Based on parental reporting.

Percentage of Parents Saving for College for Their Tenth-Grade Child by Income and Education

Level of Parents 2002


Implications of the Perfect Demographic Storm

• We need to remove barriers in the following areas:

• K-12 preparation

• Admission and financial aid policies and processes

• Retention

• If we succeed, we must find adequate funding to support the needs of all students.

Future Work

What we know…(and what we can learn)

• Colleges should be thinking about ways to address these possible major changes in the student body on their campuses.

• College must be affordable. However, what does affordable mean?

• We can learn from looking at community colleges. What role can we play to assist community college students to transfer to 4 year colleges?

• We need to work together. Are there intra-institutional and/or intrastate initiatives that could serve both the educational community and high school graduates over the next decade?

Future Work

Ongoing College Board Projects on Access and Demographics• Trustee Task Force to develop strategies,

broadly-defined, to remove barriers at all levels for students from low income families

• Washington Office program to consider whether new approaches to student aid might improve opportunities for college access and success

• www.collegeboard.com/demographics

• http://www.collegeboard.com/press/releases/150634.html

Future Work

http://www.collegeboard.com/demographics

Contact InfoJulie Shields Rutyna

Higher Education Manager

The College Board

781-663-2737

[email protected]

___________________

Rob Callahan

Northeast Regional Manager

College Board Education Loan Program

781-620-0431

[email protected]

The Perfect Demographic Storm: Extending the Benefits of Higher Education to the Next Wave of...

Documents

Transcript of The Perfect Demographic Storm: Extending the Benefits of Higher Education to the Next Wave of...