Coming of Age? The Paris COP21 Climate Agreement

Castle Debates, London, 6th June 2017

Michael GrubbProf. International Energy and Climate Change Policy, UCL

& Dr Joanna Depledge, Cambridge University and Editor, Climate Policy journal

• The Road to Paris• COP21 Outcome• Paris Agreement – a broad evaluation • Road ahead

The background…• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as

central pillar of the international effort.

• Kyoto Protocol – deep but increasingly narrow

• Diplomatic disaster of Copenhagen in 2009

• Gradual move of emission commitments away from “strong but narrow”, to “wide but weak”

• Emission realities: – Global emissions rising, but more slowly – may have peaked?

– Window of opportunity to reach two degrees closing

– China’s emissions now double those of US (but per capita still half)

– Developing country emissions now 60% global total

– Emissions stable or falling in much of developed world – incl. US, EU (but not all)

The mission

Official mandate for the Paris negotiations agreed in Durban 2011 at COP 17.

• “develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties”

• “…raise the level of ambition”; “…close the ambition gap”; “ensuring the highest possible mitigation efforts by all Parties”

Reading between the lines…

• Get the US back in, preferably before Obama leaves office

• Stronger commitments for emerging economies, read “China”

• Raise the overall global ambition to keep a two degree limit within reach

• Much stronger action on impacts and adaptation

• Avoid “another Copenhagen”

The politicsA “ripe” historical moment:

• Political timing favourable in both the US and China (Obama effect, China’s five year plan cycle, US/China deals)

• Recent changes of government in longstanding laggards: Australia, Canada, Argentina, India

• Upsurge in renewables, falling prices (esp solar)• El Nino arrives just in time to remind the world that the global warming

‘pause’ was largely fantasy – series of hottest years in human history• Adoption of UN Sustainable Development Goals + deal in ozone

negotiations on HFCs• Skilful team and preparations• Paris terrorist attacks: COP 21 as “an act of defiance” (Obama)

www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc

The Paris COP: event

of the decade

5

Largest number of participants in

UN history

- 30,372 total: 19,208 governments, 6306

NGOs, 2798 media

- (Copenhagen had 27,294 participants)

Largest COP site

- ~1 km2

Largest number of heads of state

under one roof on a single day (30

Nov.) in world history

- 150

What was agreed 1:

A strong global goal:

• Hold temperature increase “well below” 2 degrees

• “pursue efforts” to limit to 1.5 degrees (big surprise!)

• “reach global peaking … as soon as possible”

• “…balance … emissions and removals … in the second

half of this Century” (net zero)

What was agreed 2

“Wide but (often) weak” mitigation commitments:

• Country pledges: (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (I)NDCs

• Universal (188+ countries), but not legally binding• Same type of commitments for all, although expectation of

leadership on developed countries remains.• Most targets for 2030 or 2025, but different types of targets,

baselines, and coverage (eg forests)

… with stocktaking and review• To be updated every five years – no backsliding!

What was agreed 3

Supporting mechanisms:

• Finance: $100bn per year by 2020, up to 2025.

• Adaptation: general “global goal” with enhanced efforts and assistance

• “loss and damage”: separate article

• Market mechanisms

• Transparency framework: Reporting and review

As a scientific deal – too little, too late?

The current NDCs account for about one third to one half of reductions needed to move world onto a pathway towards two degrees.

• Long term goals with 5-year

review and global stocktakes

• Adaptation elevated to equal

prominence, recognition of

‘loss and damage’ • Universal MRV

provisions• Finance of at least $100bn/yr

extended to 2025, to rise

thereafter• Recognises core

need to build capacity

• Entered info force 4th Nov 2016

• Acknowledge-ment current NDCs insufficient

• Embodies recognition and encouragement of numerous coalitions and ‘clubs’

• Climate change as a social endeavourinvolving trans-national alliances and ultimately engaging all actors in society

• The new dynamic from Paris is as important as the content

Wide span of the Paris Agreement

A political and diplomatic triumph

• Brought the US “back in” & engaged China, India and other large emerging emitters

• Broke down the Annex I / non-Annex I “firewall”

• Changed the “storyline”: – No longer north vs south, but “The willing versus the unwilling”

– Climate change mitigation an opportunity, not (just) a burden

– Not (just) governments, also stakeholders

– A much richer picture of climate change as part of human development – a more “people centric” regime

“Saved the world?”“a huge flame of hope”

UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres

“A major leap for mankind [sic]”

Francois Hollande

“a monumental triumph for people and our planet”

UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon

“The best chance we have of saving the one planet we’ve got”

Barack Obama

The BUTs ..

“The deal alone won’t dig us out of the hole that we’re in, but it makes the sides less steep.” Kumi Naidoo, Executive Director, Greenpeace

Ultimate significance of Paris COP21- four fundamental changes

• 23 years after the UNFCCC, a specific formal interpretation of ‘avoiding dangerous interference’– And it is a highly ambitious one, on mitigation, adaptation and finance

• The Firewall is Dead – we are all in this together– Extensive but nuanced recognitions of differentiation, but no reference in COP21

texts to the legal division of Annex I / non-Annex I– The other elements: universal NDCs with differential expectations, finance, elevation

of adaptation, loss & damage, forestry etc are all manifestations of a new global balance with higher relevance of developing country concerns

• An evolutionary solution – In time, and space – and potentially, in legal form

• A global social endeavour (COP Decision, sections IV and V)– not a UN-driven solution relying purely on nation-state implementation– rewriting international governance and indeed the assumptions underpinning it– rooted in transparency, multi-level solutions, private sector and social pressures

A fundamental updating of the UNFCCC framework for the 21st Century

So … Half empty

orHalf full?

“History will judge us not by what we did today, but by what we do from this day forward”

-Representative of Maldives for Small Island States

“What was once unthinkable, has now become unstoppable”

-Ban Ki Moon, UN Secretary-General

Closing Statements, Paris 12 December 2015

Coming of Age? The Paris COP21 Climate Agreement

Castle Debates, London, 6th June 2017

Michael GrubbProf. International Energy and Climate Change Policy, UCL

& Dr Joanna Depledge, Cambridge University and Editor, Climate Policy journal

• The Road to Paris• COP21 Outcome• Paris Agreement – a broad evaluation • Road ahead

[Annexes]

Paris Agreement negotiated with 196 countries involved – Objective and the high level framing

• Specific interpretation of the UNFCCC Objective:

– “(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels,

– (b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production;

– (c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilient development. “

• In with new terminology, out with the old

– “.. including the principle of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances “ (CBDR-RC-DNC)

– [Intended] Nationally Determined Contributions [I]NDCs

– 187 countries submitted INDCs, including quantified objectives out to 2025 or 2030

– Text replete with terminology of developed and developing countries, but no reference to Annex I or non-Annex I

Income distribution and Capacity

Source: S. Kartha and P.Baer

Where will COP21 take countries as they develop? … Is it consistent with its objective ?

Source: Grubb, Sha, Spencer, Zhang and Hughes (2015), in CP Journal Special Issue on Chinese climate policy, Published 10th Nov 2015; available http://climatestrategies.org/climate-policy-journal/

The Bad News: viewed in the ‘blame and burdens’ mentality, an equitable 2 deg.C is impossible

$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000

NorwayUnited States

CanadaAustralia

JapanEU27

RussiaUkraine

Korea, Rep.China

MexicoBrazil

South AfricaIran

IndonesiaIndiaLDCs

Income in 2010

Projected income range 2015 - 2025

Income in year that emissions peak under typical “2 deg.C” scenario

Planetary Economics: Energy, Climate Change and the Three Domains of Sustainable

Development

1. Introduction: Trapped?2. The Three Domains

Pillar 1

• Standards and engagement for smarter choice• 3: Energy and Emissions – Technologies and Systems

• 4: Why so wasteful?

• 5: Tried and Tested – Four Decades of Energy Efficiency Policy

Pillar II

• Markets and pricing for cleaner products and processes

• 6: Pricing Pollution – of Truth and Taxes

• 7: Cap-and-trade & offsets: from idea to practice

• 8: Who’s hit? Handling the distributional impacts of carbon pricing

Pillar III

• Investment and incentives for innovation and infrastructure

• 9: Pushing further, pulling deeper

• 10: Transforming systems

• 11: The dark matter of economic growth