Climate Change and Food SecurityGlobal and regional challenges facing COP21

Keith WiebeSenior Research Fellow, IFPRI

Washington DC, 10 November 2015

• IMPACT – an integrated modeling system to assess agricultural and food security scenarios

• Collaboration with all 15 CGIAR centers through GFSF

• Collaboration with other global economic modeling groups through AgMIP

Climate and socioeconomic drivers

Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)

Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version 2.0.5 (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al. 2007. RCP 4.5: Clark et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al 2009. RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al 2008. RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007.

CO2 eq. (ppm)Radiative forcing(W/m2)

Population (billion) GDP (trillion USD, 2005 ppp)Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)

Growth in global cereal production (SSP2, NoCC)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

Rainfed maize and climate change: Projected yield changes in 2050, before economic responses (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)

Source: IFPRI DSSAT simulations

Climate change impacts on yields, by region (SSP2, 2010=1.00)

Cereals

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

Climate change impacts on yields, by region (SSP2, 2010=1.00)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

Cereals Oilseeds

Pulses Roots & Tubers

Climate and socioeconomic drivers –impacts on prices

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

SSPs

RC

Ps

Cereals Meats

Growth in total global demand(SSP2, NoCC)

20

10

= 1

.0

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

Composition of food supply(SSP2 NoCC)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

Net trade and climate change(SSP2, RCP8.5)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

Mill

ion

met

ric

ton

s

Cereals

Population at risk of hunger(SSP2, RCP8.5)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

Exploring the impacts of improved technologies and practices on…

-40.0

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

Malnourished Children Pop. at-risk-of-hunger

No till Drought tolerance Heat tolerance

Nitrogen use efficiency Integrated soil fertility mgt Precision agriculture

Water harvesting Sprinkler irrigation Drip irrigation

Crop Protection - insects

Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)

Food Security(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)

Source: Islam et al. (draft)

Crop yields(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)

Conclusions

• Significant impacts at global and regional scales, reducing gains in productivity and food security

• Significant differences across regions, crops, scenarios

• Economic responses reduce biophysical impacts

• These depend critically on policy and market conditions –and decisions

• Significant challenges for decision makers at all levels

Thank you

k.wiebe@cgiar.org