The OECD Territorial Review of Småland-Blekinge: Main Trends and Challenges William Tompson...

The OECD Territorial Review of Småland-Blekinge: Main Trends and Challenges

William TompsonRegional Development Policy DivisionDirectorate for Public Governance and Territorial DevelopmentOECD

Ronneby, 10 November 2011

First, a word of thanks…

• to the members of the local team (Emil Hesse, Helena Nilsson, Maria Nilsson, Per Schöldberg, Sofia Westerberg, Carin Karlsson and Lisa Wagnborg for an outstanding background report and the organisation of a flawless mission;

• to the two dozen or so colleagues who helped them compile the report;

• to all our interlocutors in the four counties during the March and June missions;

• and, in particular, to Per Schöldberg, for acting as guide, chauffeur, advisor and chaperone during our missions.

10 November 2011 Ronneby Seminar 2

A LOOK AT THE RECENT PASTPart 1


Relatively sparse settlement patterns


A. Population density of Swedish counties (TL3), 2009

B. Range of variation in population density of OECD TL3 regions and municipalities in Småland-Blekinge,

2007

Population density

Even the most densely populated municipality in Kronoberg has a lower density of population than the sparsest TL3 regions in five OECD countries.

Increasing concentration of population


% % % %

Municipalities 1991 2010 1991 2010 1991 2010 1991 2010

over 50,000 112,277 127,382 13% 70,067 83,005 18% 56,498 62,815 11% 59,279 64,032 8%

20,000 - 50,000 119,698 117,587 -2% 27,602 27,297 -1% 88,023 82,020 -7% 60,529 59,397 -2%

15,000 - 20,000 36,183 34,363 -5% 35,888 34,405 -4% 32,955 29,169 -11% 31,360 29,798 -5%

10,000 - 15,000 24,571 23,821 -3% 36,051 31,094 -14% 49,369 46,793 -5% 0 0 0%

below 10,000 33,924 33,713 -1% 9,004 8,139 -10% 15,038 12,739 -15% 0 0 0%

total 326,653 336,866 178,612 183,940 241,883 233,536 151,168 153,227

Jönköpings Kronobergs Kalmar Blekinge

inhabitants inhabitants inhabitants inhabitants

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0% population growth 1991-2009 population density

Demographic trends in the region mirror national trends on a smaller scale

Sweden remains a high-productivity economy


70

75

80

85

90

95

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Sweden OECD 30 G7

Productivity per hour worked in Sweden and OECD countries, 1970-2008 according to the figure

100=US productivity per hour worked

The counties are not closing the productivity gap…


80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

Blekinge Jönköpings Kronobergs Kalmar

GDP per worker in the four counties relative to the national average, 1995-2008

…But their performance compares well with that of OECD peers


y = -7E-07x + 0.0454

-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

10.0%

10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000gro

wth

in

GD

P p

er

wo

rke

r in

PP

P 1

99

5-2

00

7

Initial GDP per worker in current PPP 1995 predominantly ruralSmåland BlekingeLinear (predominantly rural)

OECD average

OECD average

Blekinge

Kalmar

JönköpingsKronobergs

Småland-Blekinge counties exceeded the average rate of productivity growth for high-productivity rural regions by almost one full percentage point (0.85 pp) over 1995-2007 – equivalent to an 11% productivity “bonus” over the period.

Only 30% of high-productivity rural regions in the OECD area recorded higher rates of productivity growth.

Growth performance has likewise been unspectacular in a Swedish context…


Stockholms

Uppsala

Södermanlands

Örebro

Skåne

Dalarnas

Gävleborgs Västernorrlands

Jämtlands

Norrbottens

Gotlands Hallands

Västra Götalands Blekinge

Jönköpings

Kronobergs

Kalmar

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 35,000

GD

P p

er

ca

pit

a g

row

th in

PP

P 1

99

5-2

00

7

Initial GDP per capita in PPP 1995

OECD average

Sweden average

Sweden average

average of Swedish regions

…but relatively strong compared to other OECD regions


Blekinge Jönköpings

Kronobergs

Kalmar

-3.5%

-2.5%

-1.5%

-0.5%

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

6.5%

7.5%

8.5%

9.5%

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

GD

P p

er

ca

pit

a g

row

th in

PP

P 1

99

5-2

00

7

Initial GDP per capita in PPP 1995

OECD average

OECD average

The counties suffer from exceptional volatility of growth


-15%-13%-11%-9%-7%-5%-3%-1%1%3%5%7%9%

11%13%15%

Sto

ckho

lm

Dal

arna

Vär

mla

nd

Väs

tra

Gö

tala

nd

Öre

bro

Skå

ne

Väs

terb

ott

en

Up

psa

la

Öst

erg

ötla

nd

Väs

tern

orr

land

Gäv

leb

org

Sö

der

man

land

Jäm

tland

Väs

tman

land

No

rrb

ott

en

Jönk

öp

ing

Go

tland

Hal

land

Kro

nob

erg

Kal

mar

Ble

king

e

standard deviation annual average growth GDPpc 1980-2008

Their business cycles reflect this


-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

80-8

1

81-8

2

82-8

3

83-8

4

84-8

5

85-8

6

86-8

7

87-8

8

88-8

9

89-9

0

90-9

1

91-9

2

92-9

3

93-9

4

94-9

5

95-9

6

96-9

7

97-9

8

98-9

9

99-0

0

00-0

1

01-0

2

02-0

3

03-0

4

04-0

5

06-0

7

07-0

8

08-0

9

Jönköping Kronoberg Kalmar Sweden Blekinge

The labour-market impact of the crisis was thus particularly severe


Jönköpings

Kronobergs

Kalmar

Blekinge

StockholmsUppsala

Södermanlands

ÖstergötlandsGotlands

SkåneHallands

Västra GötalandsVärmlands

Örebro

Västmanlands

Dalarnas

Gävleborgs

Västernorrlands Jämtlands

VästerbottensNorrbottens

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

rate

ch

an

ge

, 20

07

-20

09

Employment rate change, 2007-2009

Sweden average -- UR

Sweden average -- ER

Which is linked in part to their economic structure


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.01

99

5

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

6 Jönköpings län 7 Kronobergs län 8 Kalmar län 10 Blekinge län

Specialisation index in mining, quarrying and manufacturing, 1995-2008

The counties are heavily specialised in goods production


Agriculture, forestry,

hunting and fishing

Manufacturing, mining and quarrying

Wholesale and retail trade;

transport and warehousing; post

and telecom.

Fin.insti., real estate and business

activities, R&D

Jönköpings 2.6% 26.3% 17.9% 13.6%

Kronobergs 2.7% 23.9% 16.8% 17.4%

Kalmar 3.5% 19.7% 13.6% 13.7%

Blekinge 3.0% 22.5% 13.2% 14.9%

Sweden 1.6% 16.2% 16.6% 22.6%

Structure of GDP by economic sector: the four counties and Sweden

Specialisation in low- and medium-low tech industries


Specialisation in high-tech and knowledge-intensive sectors


Net outward commuting is modest but rising


2009 Blekinge Jönköpings Kalmar Kronobergs sum counties Metropolitan Other Night active popBlekinge 89.9% 0.0% 1.1% 1.6% 2.7% 5.2% 2.2% 62475Jönköpings 0.0% 93.8% 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 2.1% 3.1% 150247Kalmar 0.6% 0.6% 92.7% 1.2% 2.4% 1.3% 3.6% 97967Kronobergs 0.6% 1.3% 0.9% 91.8% 2.8% 2.4% 3.0% 80660Dayactive pop 60195 147981 93760 81694 383630 9533 11918 391349

County of work County of residence Blekinge Jönköping Kalmar Kronoberg Total Metro regions Skåne 3.67% 0.15% 0.13% 3.63% 1.44% Stockholm 0.53% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.29% Västra Götaland 0.28% 1.36% 0.09% 0.25% 0.64% Other Gotland 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% Halland 0.02% 0.54% 0.01% 0.74% 0.37% Södermanland 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Uppsala 0.00% 0.03% 0.02% 0.03% 0.02% Västerbotten 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Västernorrland 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Västmanland 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.03% 0.02% Östergötland 0.02% 1.02% 0.57% 0.08% 0.55%

Outward commuting flows, 2009

Inward commuting flows, 2009

Functional labour markets are growing


1980 2009

Local labour-market areas in Småland-Blekinge

Gender differences are declining in employment…


Women Men

0.65

0.67

0.69

0.71

0.73

0.75

0.77

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Jönköpings Kronobergs Kalmar

Blekinge Sweden

0.69

0.71

0.73

0.75

0.77

0.79

0.81

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009


Blekinge Sweden

Female unemployment rates Male unemployment rates

0.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.100.11

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009


Blekinge Sweden

0.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.100.11

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009


Blekinge Sweden

Employment rates

Unemployment rates

…and wages


Average wages for women as share of men's average wage, by county

1995 2000 2005 2009

Jönköping 68.6 69.3 71.1 75.1

Kronoberg 67.8 68.4 71.4 74.9

Kalmar 71.8 73.0 74.7 76.9

Blekinge 70.3 71.1 73.8 78.1

Skåne 71.2 70.8 72.9 75.3

Västra Götaland 71.5 71.5 73.4 76.4

Firm start-ups by managerial gender


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Go

tlan

d

Sö

de

rma

nla

nd

Öst

erg

ötla

nd

Ka

lma

r

Ha

llan

d

Vä

ste

rno

rrla

nd

Jön

köp

ing

Vä

stra

Gö

tala

nd

Vä

rmla

nd

Gä

vle

bo

rg

Vä

stm

an

lan

d

Ble

kin

ge

Kro

no

be

rg

Up

psa

la

Skå

ne

Da

larn

a

Jäm

tlan

d

Öre

bro

Sto

ckh

olm

No

rrb

otte

n

Vä

ste

rbo

tten

Only women 2009 Mixed managerial 2009 Growth rate Women+mixed managerial 2000-2009 (RHS)

THE CHALLENGE OF THE FUTURE

Part 2


Transition ahead

• The recent crisis has forced the pace of structural change in OECD economies.

• The implications of this shift are particularly great for the counties of Småland and Blekinge.

• It is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain competitive medium-to-low tech manufacturing in the developed countries.


A set of inter-linked challenges• Human capital: formation, retention and

attraction

• Innovation: making the most of the region’s knowledge-creation potential

• Promoting new forms of entrepreneurship

• Improving connectivity within the region and beyond: can Småland-Blekinge pursue agglomeration without density?

• Creating forms of governance that enable to the counties to address the above in an integrated fashion


Educational attainments are relatively low by comparison with national averages


10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

Attainment rates in primary and lower secondary

Attainment rates in post-secondary (3 years or more and post-graduate)

Sweden average

Sweden average

…But still rather high by OECD standards


19% 18% 18% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15%13% 13% 13%

12% 11%

15%

29%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Share of population 25-64 years with primary and secondary education as highest level of education 2009

Retention of educated youth is difficult


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Percent of post-secondary graduates from a county residing in the same county, 2007

International migrants as % of population, 2010


0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%S

tock

ho

lm

Skå

ne

Kro

no

be

rg

Up

psa

la

Ble

kin

ge

No

rrb

otte

n

Vä

ste

rbo

tten

Vä

stra

Gö

tala

nd

Vä

rmla

nd

Gä

vle

bo

rg

Sö

de

rma

nla

nd

Vä

stm

an

lan

d

Vä

ste

rno

rrla

nd

Da

larn

a

Öst

erg

ötla

nd

Öre

bro

Jön

köp

ing

Jäm

tlan

d

Ka

lma

r

Ha

llan

d

Go

tlan

d

Connecting the region


Average journey length

Number of cars/inhabitants

Journeys/ inhabitantkilometer available/ inhabitant

Journeys/ kilometer available

Jönköping Kronoberg Kalmar Blekinge Sweden

Road connections to external markets could be improved


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Potential road accessibility (100=EU average)


Note: The indicator measures accessibility to potential markets in travel time by road using an inverse weighted GDP matrix to all EU regions. The weighting rule applies the inverse distance for travel time. Potential rail access thus measures all the people that can be reached from a given region to all other regions in the EU.

Rail connectivity is better but not terrific


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Potential rail accessibility (100=EU average)


Note: The indicator measures accessibility to potential markets in travel time by rail using an inverse weighted GDP matrix to all EU regions. The weighting rule applies the inverse distance for travel time. Potential rail access thus measures all the people that can be reached from a given region to all other regions in the EU.

Improved connectivity within the region could also help labour-market performance


y = -0.2576x + 7.745

3

5

7

9

11

13

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Une

mpl

oym

ent

rate

(Q3

2009

)

ln of population density (inhabitants per square kilometer) 2009

Sweden LMA's LMA's in Smaland Blekinge

Activity rates have tended to be high


Jönköpings

Kronobergs

Kalmar

Blekinge

Stockholms

Uppsala

Södermanlands

Östergötlands

Gotlands

Skåne

Hallands

Västra GötalandsVärmlands

Örebro

Västmanlands

Dalarnas

GävleborgsVästernorrlands

Jämtlands

Västerbottens

Norrbottens

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

rate

, 20

07

Employment rate, 2007

Sweden average -- UR

Sweden average -- ER

Employment and unemployment rates for Swedish counties, 2007

Youth unemployment and population density


Connectivity should also favour entrepreneurship


Enterprise creation


The OECD Territorial Review of Småland-Blekinge: Main Trends and Challenges William Tompson...

Documents

Transcript of The OECD Territorial Review of Småland-Blekinge: Main Trends and Challenges William Tompson...