The NFL's New Extra Point Rule IsGreat

Kyle WagnerFiled to: KICKERS 9/13/15 8:26pm

For all the worried exegesis of the NFLs corn-fed rulebook thisoffseason, not much of it was aimed at footballs best rule change inyears: the new extra point.

For this season, the NFL moved the line of scrimmage for extra pointtries to the 15-yard line; defenses would also be awarded two pointsfor returning a blocked kick or turnover on a two-point try. Lastyear, in 1230 extra point attempts, there were just eight missesthats a make-rate of 99.3 percent. This year, through Sundaysafternoon games, there have been 63 attempts and three four (see

update below) misses, by the Bengals, Chargers, Jaguars, and Texans.(We also got a 48-yard attempt in Browns-Jets, for the longest extrapoint attempt in NFL history.) Thats 95.2 93.7 percent, just underwhere the number was predicted before the season. That makes abigger difference than it sounds like it should, at least whilewatching the games.

Weve known since the rule was announced what the numbers looklike: kickers made 91.6 percent of their kicks from 32 yards in thelast 10 years, 94.4 percent in the last three years, and 96.7 last year.Heres a chart from an article by FiveThirtyEights Ben Morrispredicting how kickers will adapt to the change:

All of this math is correct, with a minor allowance for the fact thatpenalties from the 32-yard range affect a kicks chances much moredramatically than from the old 19-yard range. And so far, the changehasnt been enough to shift calcified football stratagem, and likely

wont. The Chargers even elected to kick while down five points inthe fourth quarter, after eating a five-yard penalty that put them atthe 7.

But while pushing the kicks back far enough to incentive two-pointtries into common use would be great, the stats dont entirely pickup a separate shift here, which is apparent with today sticking closeto the projections. Which is, missed extra points are hilarious, andmaking them common enough to crop up a few times a weekchanges the makeup of a Sunday of games, both from the basicparity of scorelines and the boost to the lowlight reel. Of course theBrowns fuck up and get left kicking a 48-yarder on the first Sundaythe rule is in place. Of course the Jaguars and Texans are in on this,too. And of course, week to week, the basic effect of certain teamshaving notoriously unreliable kickers means a part of the game thatwas routine for everyoneand which will continue to be so for mostteamswill now be an all-new point of stress for some fans, and anall-new well of comedy for hateful shitbags like us.

Update: Im a dumbass and forgot the Bengals. Four in 63 drops therate to 93.7.

Photo credit: AP Images

Trewsa Kyle Wagner9/13/15 8:39pm

Why was there a 48 yarder? Been stuck at work. Thanks!

Kyle Wagner Trewsa9/13/15 8:42pm

Illegal formation call on the first kick, and a holding call on thesecond. He made the third easily.

JCL513 Kyle Wagner9/13/15 9:46pm

The Bengals had an XP blocked today.

Kyle Wagner JCL5139/13/15 9:52pm

Aw, hell. I tuned that game out. Ill update.

Aaron rodgers women Kyle Wagner9/13/15 9:33pm

As uncommon as it was, why am I mourning the fake PAT for a2 point conversion? It's not even a (realistic) option now...

\_()_/

Kyle Wagner Aaron rodgers women9/13/15 9:35pm

True, but the reason you see that so much less is the EVA ongoing from one to two points is way less than going from 3 to 7(or 6.9-whatever).

Aaron rodgers women Kyle Wagner9/13/15 10:10pm

Definitely. However, I have the (very, very, very slight) feelingthat something was taken away (fake 2-ptr) in exchange for aless exciting outcome (missed PAT) on a what is/should be anon-consequential play.

Christ. Ive already wasted too much phone battery on thisshit...