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The Nexus Between Energy, Food, and Water Security in the Arabian Gulf Dr. Jean-Marc Rickli Assistant Professor Department of Defence Studies, Kings College, London Joaan Bin Jassim Joint Command and Staff College, Doha

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Structure of the Presentation 1.Traditional determinants of energy security 2.New dynamics affecting energy security 3.Energy consumption patterns in the Gulf 4.Water security 5.Food security 6.Conclusions 2

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Energy Security 3

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Primary Oil and Gas Deposits in the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea Basins 4 Source: petroleuminsights.blogspot.ch

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Shipping Lanes, Strategic Passages and Oil Reserves in the Middle East 5 Source: Energy Information Administration, World Oil Transit Chokepoints & BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

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Crude Exports in 2019 and Growth in 2013-19 for Key Trade Routes (millions barrels per day) 6 Source: International Energy Agency (2014)

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Oil and Gas Dependence of GCC Economies in 2010 Source: IMF 2012 and Woertz 2013 Shares in %

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Chinese String of Pearls Network 8

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GCC Population Evolution

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Population of the UAE 10 Source: World Bank

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GDP per Capita v.s. Energy Intensity Source: Future Outlook of Desalination in the Gulf, Saif 2012

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GCC Electricity Consumption per Head 12 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

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Electricity Demand Forecast for Abu Dhabi (diversified) 13 Source: ADWEC

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Total Energy Consumption in the GCC Source: Intelligence Economic Unit

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Difference Between the Natural Gas Consumption and Production for some GCC States 15 Source: BP

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Energy Production and Consumption in Saudi Arabia 16 Source: US Energy Information Administration

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Oil Price and Breakeven Prices

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Energy Dependence Source: ESIA 2012

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Water Demand in Selected GCC Countries Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

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Cumulative Installed Desalination Capacity in the Gulf since 1970 Source: Future Outlook of Desalination in the Gulf, Saif 2012

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Arabian Gulf Morphology 23 Source: Gulf 2000 Project, Columbia University

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GCC Food Imports 2007-2020 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

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GCC Trade Dependencies in Cereals, 2000 and 2010 Source: Chatham House 2013

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Choke-Points and Strategic Infrastructure in GCC Food Security

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Vulnerability of MENA Countries to Food Price Spikes Source: Chatham House 2013

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Targets of GCC Agricultural Investments Ranked by Area Acquired, 2006-12 Source: Chatham House 2013

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Change in Maximum Catch Potential from 2005 to 2055

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Conclusions 1.Dramatic rise in energy-food-water consumption in the Gulf in the near future 2.Traditional energy exports: protection of SLOC 3.New energy distribution patterns: new maritime actors in the Gulf, navies as tool of power, protections of SLOC 4.Increased volume of desalinated water: prevention of pollution, protection of critical infrastructure, prevention of conflicts over water 5.Increased reliance on food imports: protection of SLOC 30

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31 Many thanks for your attention jean-marc.rickli@kcl.ac.uk Twitter: Dr_JMRickli