The New Colours of Mobile Vision Mobile, May 2010)

8/8/2019 The New Colours of Mobile Vision Mobile, May 2010)

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Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.

VisionMobile research

The New Colours of MobileTrends in mobile devices and software

knowledge. passion. innovation


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Industrialdesign

Hardware& chipsets

OEMs &ODMS

MobileOperators

Distributors Retailers

The mobile industry bipoleand the core value chain


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The mobile industry bipoleand the ecosystem forming around it

SIM CardOEMs

Industrialdesign

Hardwaredesigns

& chipsets

OperatingSystems

OEMs &ODMS

MobileOperators

Retailers

servicesmiddle-ware

UI middle-ware

SystemIntegrators

networkinfrastruct.

vendors

Distributors


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SIM CardOEMs

Industrialdesign

Hardwaredesigns

& chipsets

OperatingSystems

OEMs &ODMS

MobileOperators

Retailers

servicesmiddle-ware

UI middle-ware

SystemIntegrators

networkinfrastruct.

vendors

Distributors

Nokia Vodafone Brightpoint

Ericsson Gemalto

Carphone W.TietoQualcommIdem

Android Ikivo Myriad


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SIM CardOEMs

Industrialdesign

Hardwaredesigns

& chipsets

OperatingSystems

OEMs &ODMS

MobileOperators

Retailers

servicesmiddle-ware

UI middle-ware

SystemIntegrators

networkinfrastruct.

vendors

Distributors

70%of industryrevenue

15%of industry

revenue


6/16based on: Charles Fine: Clockspeed and Clayton Christensen: Skate to Where The Money Will Be

Horizontal industry structure Vertical industry structure

integrated componentsproprietaryinterfaceshighbarriers to entryall or nothing

modular componentsstandardised interfaceslowbarriers to entrymix and match

Background: how industries changeIndustries move between horizontal and vertical structures

Maturing product marketswhichfocus in flexibility, customisation

Emerging product marketswhich focus in performance, functionality


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Horizontal industry structure Vertical industry structure

1980sthe mobile industry

was born here

1999first ODMs

appear

2003outsourced

operating systems

2007open source

browsers andoperating systems

2007-8Nokia Ovi

service shopping spree

2005manufacturing for 1 in 3

phones outsourced

2002Club Nokia

2009OEM app stores

OEM sync services

2002first MNOcustomised devices

2008-9RIM, Apple:service+devicepropositions

Evolution of the handset businessfrom vertical to horizontal and back

1990-8standardisation of radio

and SIM interfaces

2010Apple:best-in-classexperience productsfrom chipsets toad networks

Product leapApple, RIM

2010WindowsPhone


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Horizontal player structure Vertical player structure

tier-1operators

tier-2/3operators

chipset OEMs

T1 handsetOEMs

Vertical propositions todayOEMs are at different stages towards verticalisation

1980sthe mobile industry

was born here

1999first MVNOs

and ODMsappear

2005MNO

basestationsharing

2004decline of walledgardens

2009MNOs open to social networks

open network APIs

2008MNO service

delivery opensup to s/w

developers

1990-8standardisation of radio

and SIM interfaces

2007open source

OEM browsers andoperating systems

2005manufacturing

for 1 in 3 phonesoutsourced


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Lead, innovate or assembleThe three role models for OEMs

Leaders: new product experiences(touch phone, touch tablet, car displays)

Innovators(industrial design, sensors, shelf-space)

Wannabees

Wannabees

Assemblers(supply chainefficiency)


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The evolution of handset strategiesand the four segments of value circa 2015

5% @500

1.5Bdevices

New product experiencesRole model: Apple

InnovatorsRole model: HTC

Mass producersRole model: Nokia & Mediatek

20% @300

25% @150

AssemblersRole model: Dell

50% @5037.5B

56B

90B

37.5B

220B


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Value Description Value Boundaries1990

Boundaries2010

Valuein 2015

Services e.g. voice, messaging, IM, Facebook, Zyb, 3rd party apps ..

network as a platform

Service delivery e.g. voice, text, web, WAP, software, on-device integration

industry on-device services

Service distribution which device and where on the device

service inventory

Device design industrial design, packaging design

UI design design of the entire user interface

new productexperiences

Core apps core apps (dialler, call logs, menus, idle screen, inbox)

Operating system software middleware and hardware interfaces

industry

Hardware platform integrated hardware reference designs

out-of-the-box

solutions

Chipset IP for apps processors, radio processors, graphics, etc

Manufacturing component sourcing and assembly

supply chain mngmt

OEMs

OEMs

MNOs

MNOs

The evolution of valueacross the software+services stack

chipsets


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The evolution of revenue modelsfor software vendors

post-salespre-load

cloud

- software IP & services- hardware IP- systemware- industrial design

- content dev. tools- service design tools- developer tools- OEM production tools

- VAS and SDPs- advertising- content & app stores- network capabilities

- service distribution- inventory leasing- on-device analytics- service management

Value

Value Value

Value

Revenue models Revenue models

- per activation- per update- per inventory/day- per user segment

Revenue models

- per unit- per platform- per model/design- per site

Revenue models

- per user, CPC/CPM- revenue share- per segment/reach- per follower

- per developer seat- per module- per site

device

from horizontal royaltiesto vertical productisation

from pre-load royaltiesto post-load revenues

from pre-load royalties topost-sales activation

from pre-loadto certification revenues


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Middleware

Operating System

Apps,themes/UIs,services

$0.2 $20m

$0.5 $5m

$2

$1m

revenue cost tobuild

value line

Front-end apps

$3 $100m

Strategies for mobile software vendorsin the pre-load business

1 Move up the stack

per user

per unit

per unit

per unit

bottom-up

0.25 * 5% + 0.10 * 45% + 0.05 * 50%

Market for UI middleware

top-down

10 T1 OEMsCeiling of10M from each

100M market per component


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2 Move upstream ordownstream

pointsolution

platform

3rd partypoint solutions

(solves particular problem) (facilitates 3rd party solutions)

3 From point solutionto enabler

Chipsetvendors

Distributors

Systemintegrators

ODMs OEMsMobile

Operators

upstream downstream


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5 Same product, new markets

-18

mobile

handsets

Red ocean

auto-

motive

home

entert/nt

Blue ocean

4 From pre-load topost-sales revenue

-12

post-sales

-6

high-pressure

pre-load

(months)

handset

softwarelifecycle

NREper-unit

per-useper-active-userrevenue share

revenue

model


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The New Colours of Mobile Vision Mobile, May 2010)

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