The NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP)

Program

Don Anderson

NASA Headquarters

CMAI Meeting

NASA GISS

April 20, 2006

2011 Overarching Vision

“… a new approach is needed for climate model development. It is not practical for a single group to have expertise in all the components of a global model, as the models are becoming more complex and include more physical and biological processes. Models for long-term climate must extend from the deep ocean to the upper atmosphere, and components of the global system that were once treated as specified boundary conditions or neglected altogether must now be simulated and allowed to interact with other parts of the model. …”

GSFC Earth-Sun Exploration Division 2006 Strategic Plan

2011 Vision - Science Drivers• Coupled Earth System models and advanced data assimilation systems

• System components fully interactive: coupled ocean, atmosphere, land, sea-ice, chemistry, biosphere executing multiple ‘what if’ scenarios

• Models easily reconfigured for short-term prediction (weather & extreme events) to seasonal to long-term climate, global and regional

• Contributions to climate model development from diverse expert groups; multiple discipline (chemistry, pollution transport, land, sea-ice, atmosphere…) collaboration

• Implementation of 4D Variational data assimilation system with new data types• Open standards

• Increased model & analysis fidelity• Enhanced resolution (horizontal, vertical, temporal, spectral)

• Estimates of Uncertainty/reliability• large ensembles (perturbed initial conditions, multi-Center initial states, multi-Center models)

• Re-emphasis of data (satellite and in-situ observations for validation and simulation; preparation for new missions)• Greatly enhanced validation efforts with rapid access to data and model output from

multiple Centers

• Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)

• Enhanced tools for testing new methods at reduced effort and cost• Combinatorial problem in test and evaluation (many components, many versions

requiring “system-level” validation)

MAP NRA & the MAP Modeling Environment(ME)

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Crosscutting ThemesFocus Areas

Model, Analysis, Prediction Program / Multi-investigator proposals

CoreIntegration

Team

ExternalNRA

Proposals

ES

MFMAP

ModelingEnvironment

CMAI GMI ECCO IIGISS

Model E

…

MAP grant example: Schematic of the Carbon Data Assimilation SystemSome ‘Element’ partners: JPL, Harvard, MIT, GISS, CSI, WHOI, Ames, MSFC [DOE, NSF, NOAA,NASA]=> ESMF

ODAS

GEOS-5 GCM STRUCTURE

AGCM

CAP HISTORY

RADIATION

COLUMN PHYSICS

SOLAR

IR

MOIST

TURB

SURFACE

CHEMLAKE

OCEAN SKIN

DYNAMICS

GWDFVCORE

(Ts,Fi...)VEGDYN

CATCH

ICELAND

(Ts,Fi...)

SURFACE

DYNAMICS

Data AGCM

COUPLED

OGCM

Data OGCM

Poseidon

OBIO

CICEMOM4MITogcmPoseidon

African SAL: Impact on tropical cyclogenesis - hypothesize to be a hurricane suppressant, in an ocean marginally suitable for hurricane generation; examine SALimpact on microphyiscs, thermodynamic instability, shear,airmass dessication

ESS Planned Hurricane Field Campaign: NAMMA-06

• Out of Africa: African Easterly Waves are the progenitors of many late-season, strong category hurricanes that strike the U.S.• Leverages off AMMA SOP-3 and will be based in Cape Verde• Multidisciplinary approach involving Weather, Water & Energy, Composition foci• Partnering with European consortium, NOAA HRD• NAMMA-06 science in line with CCSP objectives• Platforms to include DC-8, Aerosonde, TOGA & NPOL radars, micropulse lidars

MAP Modeling Environment -20061. Testing a “new” coupled model configuration: a comparison of different ocean components

Goal to support multiple global “what-if” analysis

Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere

Long time series analysis and comparison to satellite data record

2. Coupling a regional model with a global model

Goal to illustrate global to regional interface & to demonstrate capability to support real-time field experiments

( Support NAMMA, A-Train, TRMM in both 1&2 )

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3. MERRA: Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and ApplicationsDevelop, validate, and disseminate a global retrospective analysis dataset. The project time period will cover the modern era of remotely sensed data, from 1979 through the present. The special focus of the atmospheric assimilation will be the hydrological cycle.

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MAPME 2006 System Prototyping 1.

NASA AmesMt. View, California

SPoRT FacilityNASA Marshall

Huntsville, Alabama

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COMPUTING NODES

NAS MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS

SCIENCE ANALYSIS

GEOS5/OGCM/MOM4

GEOS5/OGCM/MOM4GEOS5/MODEL

GEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDONGEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDONGEOS5/DAS

WRF EXTERNAL MODEL OUTPUT

PORTALS

EXPERIMENT: Embed WRF w/

GEOS5

GEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDONGEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDONWRF/MODEL

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DATA NODES

Prepare Map & Movies & Web Access

Graphics,

Movies,Satellit

eData

SIVO/NCCS Analysis

Visualization

All modelOutputs

Satellite

Data

OceanColorGroup

OtherModelOutput

NASA AmesMt. View, California

National Lambda Rail (10 - 40 Gb/s)

INTEL CorpPortland, Oregon

Northrop GrummanMcLean, Virginia

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NASA GoddardGreenbelt, Maryland

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Conventional Network(600 Mb/s)

DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING NODES

NEXT-GENERATION NETWORKS

NCCS/NAS MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS

SCIENCE ANALYSIS

GEOS5/OGCM/MOM4

GEOS5/OGCM/MOM4

GEOS5/OGCM/MOM4

GEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDONGEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDONGEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDON

MAPME 2006 System Prototyping 2.

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GFDL/NCDC MODEL OUTPUT

PORTALS

EXPERIMENT: Configure GEOS5 w/ Different Ocean Models

EXTERNAL COLLABORATORS

Model to model & model to data

validation / comparisons

Configure model, set up work flow

all remotely initiated via Web - ultimately SOA

DevelopmentEnvironment

ExperimentationEnvironment

Summary of Capabilities

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Visualization & AnalysisServers providing on-demand

support

Robust and non-intrusiveinfrastructure support

(security working across domains, network performance QOS,…)

Cross-site workflow (data/jobs) Remotely initiated via webschedule, monitor, manage

with greater autonomy across multi-sitecyber-infrastructure

Grey denotesOption turned off

ESMF Re-configurable models turn on/off

components, on/off outputsuser settable via web service*

Substantial compute resources connected byhigh-speed networks

load-balanced scheduled vs. queued

transparent site selection

Coupled Full-EarthModeling and

Data AssimilationSystem for

Earth-Sun Science

2005 Project Hurricane

2006 NASA MAP Modeling Environment

fvGCM (GEOS4)

GEOS-5

JCSDA/GSI Project Columbia

Integrating Earth System Modeling and Observations

Process Models

Component Models

Multi-component Models

Fully Interactive Earth System Model

MAP Modeling Environment Development Path

Knights of theNASA Earth Science Community

“The Holy Grail”

Don’s Vision