The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
-
Upload
luis-c-olival -
Category
Documents
-
view
229 -
download
0
Transcript of The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
-
7/28/2019 The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
1/18
07/06/13 The Mystery of Why Portugal Is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comments 1/18
Politics Business Tech Entertainment Health Sexes National Global China Magazine
What Googleand NSA Snoops
Have inCommon
The Vivid
Stories of Mavis
Gallant
No, Diet Coke Is
Not as Bad as
Meth
SPONSOR CONTENT
The Promise of
Cognitive
Computing
Special Reports Video Photo Ebook Newsletters Birth of the Surveillance State Michael Hirsh
MATTHEW O'BRIEN JUN 5 2013, 5:05 PM ET
TweetTweet
163
28
(Reuters)
Every unhappy family might be unhappy in its own way, but the same isn't quite
true of every unhappy euro country. The common currency's troubled
economies all relied on foreign borrowing during the boom, and all went kaput
when that money disappeared during the bust. But, as Michael Lewis put it, not
all piles of borrowed money were created equal. Greece got a government
bubble; Spain and Ireland got housing bubbles; Italy didn't even get a bubble,
just anemic growth -- and Portugal got one of the quietest catastrophes in
economic memory.
And it's not entirely clear why.
In 2001, Portugal seemed set to embark on a brave new economic future. The
previous quarter-century had seen it move from dictatorship to democracy,
from a managed economy to markets -- and the results were positively startling.
Paul Krugman was among the cadre of MIT grad students advising the newly-
free government in the late 1970s, and he scarcely recognized Lisbon by the turn
of the century -- in a good way. The city was no longer an eclectic mix of post-
revolutionaries and post-Victorian architecture. It was just another part of
Europe, albeit a poorer part, but a part nonetheless.
Even this relative poverty looked like it might fade into history with the advent
of the euro in 1999. Adopting the common currency meant deeper integrationwith Portugal's main trade partners and lower borrowing costs, both of which
should have augured a boom.
That's not how things turned out.
The Mystery of Why Portugal Is Sooomed
id relying too heavily on mom-and-pop businesses hobble one of Europe's most imperiled
ountries? It 's possible.
VIDEO
Can a tuning forkimprove a cocktail?
WRITERS
James FallowsFalse Equivalence Watch: A Keeper from the
LA Times 11:00 AM ET
Conor FriedersdorfSecrecy Undermines the Ability of Congress
to Function as the Framers Intended
11:00 AM ET
Andrew CohenSecretariat's Jockey on Winning the Triple
Crown at Belmont, 40 Years Ago 10:01 AM ET
Eleanor BarkhornWhat The Internship Misses About
Unemployment 8:34 AM ET
Jordan WeissmannThe Accelerating Recovery of American
Wealth 8:29 AM ET
Christopher OrrJoss Whedon on the 'No Brainer' of
Modernizing Much Ado About Nothing
7:31 AM ET
Megan Garber
1k
Like
28
ShareShare
Shaken NotTuned: CocktailExperiments
More
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-accelerating-recovery-of-american-wealth/276634/http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/06/what-i-the-internship-i-misses-about-unemployment/276631/http://www.theatlantic.com/eleanor-barkhorn/http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/06/secrecy-undermines-the-ability-of-congress-to-function-as-the-framers-intended/276641/http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/09/29/140934605/michael-lewis-on-californiahttp://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/06/false-equivalence-watch-a-keeper-from-the-la-times/276643/http://www.theatlantic.com/writers/http://www.theatlantic.com/http://www.theatlantic.com/http://www.theatlantic.com/http://www.theatlantic.com/video/archive/2013/04/shaken-not-tuned-cocktail-experiments/275051/http://www.theatlantic.com/megan-garber/http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/06/joss-whedon-on-the-no-brainer-of-modernizing-i-much-ado-about-nothing-i/276409/http://www.theatlantic.com/christopher-orr/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-accelerating-recovery-of-american-wealth/276634/http://www.theatlantic.com/jordan-weissmann/http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/06/what-i-the-internship-i-misses-about-unemployment/276631/http://www.theatlantic.com/eleanor-barkhorn/http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/06/secretariats-jockey-on-winning-the-triple-crown-at-belmont-40-years-ago/276453/http://www.theatlantic.com/andrew-cohen/http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/06/secrecy-undermines-the-ability-of-congress-to-function-as-the-framers-intended/276641/http://www.theatlantic.com/conor-friedersdorf/http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/06/false-equivalence-watch-a-keeper-from-the-la-times/276643/http://www.theatlantic.com/james-fallows/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/writers/http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/27/portuguese-memories-trivial-and-personal/http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/09/29/140934605/michael-lewis-on-californiahttp://twitter.com/search?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2013%2F06%2Fthe-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed%2F276371%2Fhttps://twitter.com/intent/tweet?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2013%2F06%2Fthe-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed%2F276371%2F&related=TheAtlantic%2CTheAtlanticBIZ%2CObsoleteDogma&text=The%20Mystery%20of%20Why%20Portugal%20Is%20So%20Doomed%20-%20Matthew%20O%27Brien%20-%20The%20Atlantic&tw_p=tweetbutton&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2013%2F06%2Fthe-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed%2F276371%2Fhttp://www.theatlantic.com/matthew-obrien/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/michael-hirsh/http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/06/birth-of-the-surveillance-state/276650/http://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/http://www.theatlantic.com/ebooks/http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/http://www.theatlantic.com/video/http://www.theatlantic.com/special-report/http://www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/ibm-cognitive-computing/http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/06/diet-coke-not-as-bad-as-meth/276393/http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/06/the-way-vivid-way-underappreciated-short-stories-of-mavis-gallant/276528/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/what-google-and-nsa-snoops-have-in-common/276612/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/what-google-and-nsa-snoops-have-in-common/276612/http://www.theatlantic.com/http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/http://www.theatlantic.com/china/http://www.theatlantic.com/international/http://www.theatlantic.com/national/http://www.theatlantic.com/sexes/http://www.theatlantic.com/health/http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/http://www.tkqlhce.com/click-4279169-10830687 -
7/28/2019 The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
2/18
07/06/13 The Mystery of Why Portugal Is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comments 2/18
Between 2000 and 2012, Portugal's economy grew less on a per capita basis than
the U.S. during the Great Depression or Japan during its lost decade. This wasn't
a case of the bust erasing the boom, because there was no boom. As you can see
in the chart below from Ricardo Reis, a professor at Columbia University,
Portuguese real GDP per capita flatlined during the "good years" before falling
during the bad. Incredibly, Portugal was richer 12 years ago then it is now.
It's an economic whodunit without any clear culprits. Y es, Portugal has real
structural problems (which we'll get to), but so do Spain and Greece, neither of
which slumped before the slump. For his part, Reis speculates that Portugal's
immature financial sector is to blame: it misallocated the foreign capital that
poured in to low productivity , non-tradable sectors like wholesale and retail
trade. In other words, it wasted money on things that never had a chance of
paying off. Now, Portuguese banks certainly did make a lot of bad bets ... but so
did German ones in Portugal. Something else must have been going on.
Part of that something else is Portugal's small business culture. As Matt Yglesias
ofSlate points out, most of southern Europe, Portugal included, suffers from too
much corruption and regulation. Businesses choose to stay small, because itmakes sense to just deal with people you personally trust when you can't reliably
appeal to the authorities sans-kickback. Businesses can stay small, because the
laws make it hard to get big and achieve economies-of-scale. It 's a mom-and-pop
nightmare of low productivity .
And it's gotten worse since 2008. Not only do small-and-medium-sized
enterprises (SMEs) play a, well, outsized role in Portugal's economy, but now
even they are in retreat. For one, austerity has crushed their customers; for
another, SMEs are facing a credit crunch. As you can see in the chart below from
Credit Suisse, the more euro-economies depend on SMEs, the less those SMEs
can get loans, Portugal no exception.
It's not a particularly Portuguese problem, but it is particularly bad in Portugal.
1 Listening to Young Atheists: Lessons for a
Stronger Christianity
2 What We Don't Know About Spying on
Citizens: Scarier Than What We Know
3 The Accelerating Recovery of American
Wealth
4 Government Phone Surveillance for Dummies
5 Was I Actually 'Addicted' to Internet
Pornography?
6 Sean Parker Responds to Redwoods
Wedding Criticism, and His Defense Is
Actually Pretty Convincing
7 A Week of Furious Protest in Turkey
8 What Being Editor-in-Chief ofPlaygirlTaughtMe About Female Desire
9 2013 National Geographic Traveler Photo
Contest
10 Joss Whedon on the 'No Brainer' of
Modernizing Much Ado About Nothing
Government Phone Surveillance for Dummies
JUN 6, 2013
Alexis C. MadrigalBombshell Report: NSA and FBI 'Tapping
Directly' Into Tech Companies' Servers
JUN 6, 2013
More in Business
What Google andNSA Snoops Have inCommonLEO MIRANI
The MysteriousCollapse of PortugalMATTHEW O'BRIEN
Should We T rustEconomists?NOAH SMITH
A Week of Furious Protest in Turkey
Most Popular
http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013/06/a-week-of-furious-protest-in-turkey/100529/http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013/06/a-week-of-furious-protest-in-turkey/100529/http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/http://www.theatlantic.com/noah-smith/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/should-we-trust-economists/276497/http://www.theatlantic.com/matthew-obrien/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/http://www.theatlantic.com/leo-mirani/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/what-google-and-nsa-snoops-have-in-common/276612/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/06/bombshell-report-nsa-and-fbi-tapping-directly-into-tech-companies-servers/276633/http://www.theatlantic.com/alexis-madrigal/http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/06/government-phone-surveillance-for-dummies/276629/http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/06/joss-whedon-on-the-no-brainer-of-modernizing-i-much-ado-about-nothing-i/276409/http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013/05/2013-national-geographic-traveler-photo-contest/100516/http://www.theatlantic.com/sexes/archive/2013/06/what-being-editor-in-chief-of-i-playgirl-i-taught-me-about-female-desire/276640/http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013/06/a-week-of-furious-protest-in-turkey/100529/http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/06/sean-parker-responds-to-redwoods-wedding-criticism-and-his-defense-is-actually-pretty-convincing/276553/http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/06/was-i-actually-addicted-to-internet-pornography/276619/http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/06/government-phone-surveillance-for-dummies/276629/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-accelerating-recovery-of-american-wealth/276634/http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/06/what-we-dont-know-about-spying-on-citizens-scarier-than-what-we-know/276607/http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/06/listening-to-young-atheists-lessons-for-a-stronger-christianity/276584/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/should-we-trust-economists/276497/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/what-google-and-nsa-snoops-have-in-common/276612/http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/business/PortugalSMEs2.pnghttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3278969c-c389-11e2-aa5b-00144feab7de.html#axzz2UTnS2ftRhttp://www.slate.com/articles/business/small_business/2012/07/the_small_business_problem_why_greece_italy_and_spain_have_too_many_small_firms_.htmlhttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Projects/BPEA/Spring%202013/2013a_reis.pdf -
7/28/2019 The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
3/18
07/06/13 The Mystery of Why Portugal Is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comments 3/18
The chart below from the European Commission shows that, outside of Cyprus,
Portugal's SMEs face the highest one-year borrowing costs in the euro zone --
and that despite falling government borrowing costs.
But we're back to where we started: with a puzzle. Credit-starved (and
inefficient) SMEs help explain why things are so bad now, but not why they have
been so bad for so long. Or why things weren't bad before the bust in Spain and
Greece. What is clear is that Portugal needs help from the rest of Europe to
finally get back to growth. That means delaying more austerity -- JP Morgan
estimates Portugal is only55 percent of the way to structural balance -- and
ending the delay on more unconventional monetary policy. The European
Central Bank (ECB) has alreadyruled out a big SME loan program, but it
shouldn't; yes, Portugal needs to rebalance away from SMEs, but a credit crunch
isn't the way to do it. More broadly, the ECB should be doing much, much more
to rev ive a moribund euro-economy. Indeed, it's no accident that Portugal's
euro-area exports have stagnated while its non-euro ones have surged ever
since the ECB raised rates back in 2011. As you can see in the chart below from
Portugal's Institute of National Statistics, a big gap has opened up between its
euro and non-euro export growth for the first time since 2000.
Of course, Portugal still has to fix its structural problems. This can often feel like
a hand-wavey catchall, but, among other things, it means making it easier to fire
permanent workers who are very much so; making it easier to start and expand
a business; and making it easier to enforce contracts. After all, Portugal's
stagnation between 2000 and 2008 shows that adequate demand isn't sufficient
in the face of these deep problems -- but it is necessary. That's why Europe
needs to stop insisting on punishment as the path to prosperity .
If they don't, the idea of euro exit might not just be the topic of a popularPortuguese book. It might be the platform of a popular Portuguese party .
96 Jump to comments
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#commentshttp://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#disqus_threadhttp://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/business/PortugalExports2.pnghttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323336104578503253715866368.html?KEYWORDS=portugalhttp://www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpid=INE&xpgid=ine_indicadores&indOcorrCod=0005716&contexto=bd&selTab=tab2http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b43f0962-cc63-11e2-9cf7-00144feab7de.html#axzz2VN9rAjoUhttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/05/28/1517162/are-we-nearly-there-yet/http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/business/PortugalSMEs3.jpghttp://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/themes/09_sme_access_to_finance.pdf -
7/28/2019 The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
4/18
07/06/13 The Mystery of Why Portugal Is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comments 4/18
TweetTweet
163
28
submit
reddit
Email
Print
ALL POSTS FollowFollow @ObsoleteDogma@ObsoleteDogma 15.7K follow ers
MATTHEW O'BRIENMatthew O'Brien is an associate editor at The Atlanticcovering business and economics . He has
previously written forThe New Republic.
Elsewhere on the web(Sponsored Links)
European Soccers Real Winners(The Financialist)
The Most Important Way to Maintain a Great Physique in Your
30s, 40s and Beyond(Inspiyr)
Why Big Data Has Become a Nightmare(The TI BCO Blog)
Unnecessary Evil: Bras Are No Longer A Girls Best Friend
(redOrbit)
IMF head warns of sombre trends(Financial Times)
JOIN THE DISCUSSION
After you co mme nt, c lick Post . If y ou re not alr ead y log ged in y ou will b e aske d to log in or re gister .
96 comments
0
1k
Recommend
28
ShareShare
DEIRDRE CLEMENTE & AISLING
'CONNOR
UN 6, 2013
hy Liberace's Costumes
attered
ARRETT EPPS JUN 4, 2013
hy Chris Christie Is Right to
Call for a Special Election
LEIGH ALEXANDER JUN 6, 2013
omino's, the Pizza That Never
Sleeps
LARRY ALEX TAUNTON JUN 6, 2013
essons From Talking to
theist Students
First Bananas, Then the World
More Video
TweetTweet
Birth of the Surveillance State
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/06/birth-of-the-surveillance-state/276650/https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2013%2F06%2Fthe-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed%2F276371%2F&text=First%20Bananas%2C%20Then%20the%20World&tw_p=tweetbutton&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fvideo%2Findex%2F276580%2Fall-about-bananas%2Fhttp://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=http://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/276580/all-about-bananas/t=First%20Bananas,%20Then%20the%20Worldhttp://www.theatlantic.com/video/http://www.theatlantic.com/video/http://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/276580/all-about-bananas/http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/06/listening-to-young-atheists-lessons-for-a-stronger-christianity/276584/http://www.theatlantic.com/larry-alex-taunton/http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/06/dominos-the-pizza-that-never-sleeps/276572/http://www.theatlantic.com/leigh-alexander/http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/06/why-chris-christie-is-right-to-call-for-a-special-election/276525/http://www.theatlantic.com/garrett-epps/http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/06/why-liberaces-costumes-mattered/276568/http://www.theatlantic.com/deirdre-clemente-aisling-oconnor/http://www.theatlantic.com/matthew-obrien/https://ssl.palmcoastd.com/23301/apps/-164286?iKey=I**A2Bhttp://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/57d2040c-cd37-11e2-90e8-00144feab7de.htmlhttp://www.redorbit.com/news/health/1112821737/bras-are-unnecessary-evil-french-041213/http://www.thetibcoblog.com/2013/04/18/why-big-data-has-become-a-nightmare/http://inspiyr.com/the-most-important-way-to-maintain-a-great-physique-in-your-30s-40s-and-beyond/http://www.thefinancialist.com/european-soccers-real-winners/http://www.theatlantic.com/matthew-obrien/https://twitter.com/intent/user?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2013%2F06%2Fthe-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed%2F276371%2F®ion=count_link&screen_name=ObsoleteDogma&tw_p=followbutton&variant=2.0https://twitter.com/intent/follow?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2013%2F06%2Fthe-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed%2F276371%2F®ion=follow_link&screen_name=ObsoleteDogma&tw_p=followbutton&variant=2.0http://www.theatlantic.com/matthew-obrienhttp://www.theatlantic.com/business/print/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/mailto:?subject=The%20Mystery%20of%20Why%20Portugal%20Is%20So%20Doomed&body=Did%20relying%20too%20heavily%20on%20mom-and-pop%20businesses%20hobble%20one%20of%20Europe%27s%20most%20imperiled%20countries%3F%20It%27s%20possible.%20%0A%0ARead%20More%3A%0Ahttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2013%2F06%2Fthe-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed%2F276371%2Fhttp://www.reddit.com/submit?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2013%2F06%2Fthe-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed%2F276371%2Fhttp://www.reddit.com/submit?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2013%2F06%2Fthe-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed%2F276371%2Fhttp://twitter.com/search?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2013%2F06%2Fthe-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed%2F276371%2Fhttps://twitter.com/intent/tweet?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2013%2F06%2Fthe-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed%2F276371%2F&text=The%20Mystery%20of%20Why%20Portugal%20Is%20So%20Doomed%20-%20Matthew%20O%27Brien%20-%20The%20Atlantic&tw_p=tweetbutton&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2013%2F06%2Fthe-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed%2F276371%2F -
7/28/2019 The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
5/18
07/06/13 The Mystery of Why Portugal Is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comments 5/18
...
OldestOldest CommunityCommunity ShareShare
Elegance
Zoinks, Portugal! We're out of Scooby Snacks!
7 6
Pa ul Wartenberg
ruh-roh1
Bu ckl and
No real mystery on why any of the European countries got into trouble.
[Insert Country Name Here] allowed government to grow way too much in the good years.
The government grew too large both in terms of cost and in terms of the degree of
economic control of the economy. This made economic growth falter.
With a bloated public sector the government was afraid to implement necessary
budgetary controls to help the faltering economy fear of unrest from the unions. The
government's ability to respond to unexpected conditions was severely restricted, causing
unexpected events to mushroom into full scale crises.
And that' s the issue across much of Europe. Across the southern tier, Ireland, Belgium,
and even France it's the exact same story. Government growth aided by low interest rates
took away the ability to respond to financial events. In some places it was a real estate
shock, elsewhere recessions magnified the problem.
But the root is all the same. The inability to budget during good times.
20 21
Lorehead
hats false. Both Spain and Italy had falling debt-to-GDP ratios in 2008 and their
governments were spending well within their means before the same crisis that hit
everyone hit them. And, as the art icle points out, Portugal didnt even have good
ears. Portugals debt was increasing, but that was not due to spending, but
rather revenues during its lost decade. Greeces situation was different from anyof those, or the United States.
oure inventing a theory of economics to justify your arguments about U.S.
domestic policy and trying to fit other countries into it regardless of the facts.
60 2
nervous122
The ratios mean nothing, because GDP was inflated and unsustainable.
Instead of realizing that, the countries contiued to spend as if their
economies would always be in boom times.
And what do you do when revenues are low? Cut spending.
5
andrelot
How can GDP for countries like Portugal and Italy, which didn't
expand fast and haven't done so in 15 years, be "inflated and
unsustainable"?
I agree with @Lorehead : some people try to fit other countries'
relatieis into an already contentious "narrative" of economic crisis of
USA. It doesn't fly.
5 1
Lorehead
hen is a country spending too much? When its economy is
inflated and unsustainable. When is its economy inflated and
unsustainable? When it later crashed. Therefore, every crash is
preceded by inflated and unsustainable spending;post hoc ergo
ropter hoc; Q.E.D.
5 1
HoratiusZappa
' '
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.tradingeconomics.com/portugal/government-spendinghttp://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920342764http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920353529http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920342764http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920599283http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920897243http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921344215http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://disqus.com/lorehead/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920897243http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921203971http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920353529http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920897243http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.tradingeconomics.com/portugal/government-spendinghttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdphttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/government-debt-to-gdphttp://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920342764http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920353529http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920342764http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920311738http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921549237http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920311738http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/# -
7/28/2019 The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
6/18
07/06/13 The Mystery of Why Portugal Is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comments 6/18
.
per year on average (compounding). That's not horribly unreasonable if one
ishes to increase spending to accommodate inflation, and perhaps a little
population growth. Portugal's problem is that it already had a high debt load long
ago and did not manage to gnaw away at it even during whatever passes for
prosperous times there. Countries that insist on deficit spending during "good"
ears eliminate/reduce/compromise their capability to be suitably Keynesian
during "bad" years.
10
RobertSF
Predictable. Too much money was given to the poor, and not enough was given to
he rich.
6 2
Orson OLSON
Buckhead talks turkey, but the NE morons here only want to listen to
"Lorehead" ((to judge by the like/dislikes count) - and people wonder why
New York is hemorrhaging people, companies, and jobs to....Texas? The
Idiotes rule the NE. Clearly thay want more of the same instead of learing
common economic sense.
2
kurlis
bsolutely correct, Buckland.
2 4
Ray O'Leary
Clueless.
1
ek ErilaR
According to Dirio de Notcias (Lisbon, 30 May 2013), Portugal has been subsidized by
the EU to the extent of 9 million a day for the last 25 years ( 81 billion to date).
http://www.presseurop.eu/en/co...
It seems that the kind and trusting Portuguese spent most of it on infra-structure. Contrary
to Krugman, it seems that if you built it they may not come.
13 2
Unemployed_Northeastern
This isn't that new a tale - didn't Jose Maria Eca de Queiroz figuratively write about the
downfall of Portugal in his 19th century masterpiece "The Maias?"
5
J G
Luis Cames also died shortly after writing "All will see that so dear to me was my
country that I was content to die not only in it but with it", this was in the XVI
century.
Portuguese are so unproductive we can't even manage the proper destruction of
our nation.
5
Unemployed_Northeastern
I must admit I don't recall those lines, but it's been about a decade since I
read The Lusiads; it's probably time for another read one of these days.
Jose Saramago never thought much of the Portuguese government either,
it would seem.
2
J G
lso Julius Caesar reportedly said "Deep in Iberia there is a tribe
hat doesn't rule itself, nor allows anyone to rule it"1
gumbojuice
It's mostly culture. If you have a work ethic where people get up at 5am and go to work at
7am, even on Saturdays, like most of Taiwan and South Korea did during the 1970s-
1990s and now China ou'll do well. You ma not be blazin rich but on the whole our
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920403528http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921394100http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-922059432http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921141830http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921394100http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920401511http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921141830http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920401511http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/news-brief/3824771-portugal-received-9m-day-25-yearshttp://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920348262http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920342764http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921360157http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920342764http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920830773http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920634927http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920703696http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920342764http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920634927http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/# -
7/28/2019 The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
7/18
07/06/13 The Mystery of Why Portugal Is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comments 7/18
, . ,
life will be improving. Even in the US with many structural and historical advantages, the
upper middle professional class works their asses off. I've yet to meet a full-time
American surgeon who works less than 60 hrs a week. And believe me, they're working
every minute of it and even on their free time are often working over the phone.
Or you can take siestas every day, think you're working hard even though you're just
physically there, and then wonder why unemployment is 18%.
15 19
LordOrlock
Bullshit.
Portugal has the 9th most hours worked out of the 30 European countries. Thats
even more than Germany. Yet theyre still the 6th least productive European
country.
heres no correlation AT ALL. BTW remember that, at least before the 2008
recession, the Greeks worked more hours per person than any other European
country. Lot of good THAT did them: Their economy is still bloody fucked.
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/maga...
37 5
Perfundle
It looks like there IS a correlation, but an inverse one. Nine of the ten leastproductive countries work the most, while nine of the ten most productive
countries work the least. That makes sense, given what the article
suggests: if your country is highly efficient, with an excellent infrastructure,
people don't need to work as long to achieve the same productivity.
20
Tia Trussardi
Being Italian and having lived and worked all over Europe and North
America, I can assure you that being physically at work and actually
working are not the same thing in Southern Europe. The German media
ran a series of articles about the experience of Spanish and Greek citizens
who had migrated to Germany looking for work. The migrants reported
being surprised to find that German workers did not make personal phonecalls in the office, take numerous coffee and cigarette breaks or otherwise
goof off while physically present in the workplace.
Also, only the very largest companies in Southern Europe tend to have air
conditioned offices which does not help with productivity in 100 degree
heat.
29 1
Tom Saxer
Work hours does not equal productivity. Capital and technology are more
important factors as the article mentions there was little reason for SME's
to invest. For example there is a huge difference in productivity of 1 worker
with a shovel versus 1 worker with a back hoe.
1
qdiscqus
rong. Greece has much higher number of hours worked per year per worker
han Germany. And look where the two countries are in terms of wealth.
6 4
kurlis
Germans are more productive than Greeks.
11 1
Elora Dannon
Only because they can afford to be. Long ago, the Germans were
invasive barbarians and the Greeks were busy building civilizationand culture. The Euro is just another one of their attempts to take
over Europe. Like all the others, it too will fail.
3 4
kurlis
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921095517http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921157942http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920829547http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921095517http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920466841http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920829547http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920403528http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920466841http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920418564http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921474867http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920418564http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920607327http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920418564http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920456728http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17155304http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920403528http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920418564http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/# -
7/28/2019 The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
8/18
07/06/13 The Mystery of Why Portugal Is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comments 8/18
, . . .
10 1
Elora Dannon
hat is not a fair or accurate statement.
4 3
kurlis
es, actually it is. You see, I'm from Spain. I was born in Madrid. I
know Spaniards. I am one. My statement is completely accurate
and most certainly fair.
3
kurlis
here is a reason Spain is not economically competetive with
Germany and it has NOTHING to do with wealth. It has everything
o do with productivity and work ethic. I understand what is meant
by "Mediterranean Lifestyle" and a noon siesta.
2
Elora Dannon
seriously man, when was the last time you had a siesta?
1
kurlis
I remember them from my youth circa 1970's. In Madrid, everything
shut down promptly at 12 noon. I'm willing to bet they still have
hem in some of the smaller pueblos. The culture has changed, not
always for the better. One need only look at the endemic,
persistently high youth unemployment. Its no wonder Spaniards are
moving away in droves. I did. Thank goodness.
1
Elora Dannon
So am I, though I was born in Asturias. But I still do not agree with
our generalization of Spanish people, despite the fact i have
cousins who are moving to Germany for work. :-P
JayMan
Partly.
JayMan
hat's not the reason.
Tim_Sims
If your argument is that working more hours now results in strong results later,
hen Portugal, Greece, etc are in great shape, since they are among the world
leaders in hours worked per capita.
If your argument is something else, then the facts don't seem to support you.
12
HoratiusZappa
Do you mean perhaps that they are the worlds leaders in hours worked per
capita, as reported by their governments and dutifully passed on by the
OECD without comment or scrutiny?
6 2
K Dawg
The point is, as Tia Trussardi makes, how productive are they at work? Are
they taking smoke breaks and calling friends to chat, or are they actually,you know, working? In that sense, culture does play a role.
6
gumbojuice
Exactly. When you say you work 8 hrs a day and then take two to
hree hours a day to do errands, eat, gossip, nap, then you're not
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920888764http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920913701http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920485068http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920888764http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920485068http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920593305http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920403528http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920485068http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://jaymans.wordpress.com/2013/06/06/welcome-readers-from-portugal/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921095517http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921316976http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921157942http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921317120http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921919355http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921933207http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921920887http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921953639http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921920887http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921934028http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921919355http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921920887http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921235785http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921919355http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921157942http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921235785http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/# -
7/28/2019 The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
9/18
07/06/13 The Mystery of Why Portugal Is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comments 9/18
really working 8 hrs. The statistics are masking reality here.
5
Paulo Pincaro
Is that a FMYOA figure?
Paulo Pincaro
hey're producing the things Germany doesn't want to and they
stopped producing certain crops to create 'market parity.' It's not a
matter of work efficiency, but because of market restrictions (thatere sold to the country as a means to create a 'free market' (oh,
he irony!)) unemployment, unsurprisingly shot up. There's nothing
quiet or unknown here, it's all in plain sight to be seen. The problem
is people opening their eyes.
kurlis
ou're absolutely right. Culture has everything to do with it.
2 1
J G
our analysis fails when one considers portuguese workers in Luxembourg,
Germany or Switzerland have high Productivity ratings. Same people, differentmanagement.
ork hours have little effect on productivity per capita. If that was the case Greece
or India would be Economic powerhouses.
4
three_chord_sloth
ou are correct -- it's mostly culture. However, the cultural attribute you cited is
secondary. Primarily, it is familial structure and expectations.
his is gonna take some explaining...
hroughout southern Europe, the extended family is preeminent. It is expected that
he responsible, employed members of a family find jobs for their shiftless cousins
and dopey brothers-in-law.
Many find this idea comforting (and in a certain way it is) but too much of this
nepotism is damaging. It destroys the one thing every nation that wishes to join the
First World needs from time to time -- a Good Government movement.
Good governance is absolutely necessary in order to take that last step into the big
leagues; corruption and cronyism must be rooted out, or at least deeply
suppressed, and rule of law must become commonplace. Yet if one's culture
demands/expects routine nepotism as the normal course of business, no good
government movement can really take root... cronyism and corruption continue
unabated despite whatever efforts may be undertaken to eliminate them.
3
As urb anopal
Portugal has been one of the poorest nations in Europe for at least two centuries. They
were an isolated fascist dictatorship for fifty years. They've had an aging population and
declining birthrate since the 1980's. In truth, its really unfair to compare them to the rest of
Europe - Germany, Britain and such. A better analogy would be with nations like Spain
and Argentina, which lived with oppressive, corrupt regimes for decades and maybe
internalized lessons that are poorly suited to today's global economy?
26
Mat Mullen
That's a depressing graph.
1
JayMan
It's a lot less mysterious than you're making out here.
Indeed, I've drawn a little map which, when compared to a map of economic indices of the
various European countries, neatly explains the situation.
see more
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920495210http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920490477http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920443309http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920403528http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921563619http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920403528http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921130968http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920403528http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920829230http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920888764http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-922284645http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920913701http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-922285049http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/# -
7/28/2019 The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
10/18
07/06/13 The Mystery of Why Portugal Is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portug al-is-so-doomed/276371/#comments 10/18
ee ere:
A Tale of Two Maps | JayMan's Blog
Edit: Also see my latest post, geared towards readers from Portugal:
Welcome Readers from Portugal! | JayMan's Blog
1 8
Lorehead
our point being that poverty causes people to do worse on IQ tests, explaining
he rapid rise in IQ in Ireland and eastern Germany over the past few decades?8
JayMan
No, poverty doesn't lead to poor performance on IQ tests; low-IQ leads to
poverty. The PIIGS are in big trouble to varying degrees because of the
lower average IQ of their populaces compared to their northern neighbors.
Don't put too much stock in the rise in IQ in East Germany and Ireland.
2 4
Lorehead
hats your argument? Dont put too much stock in the facts that
disconfirm your hypothesis?
14
JayMan
here is a reason I say that.
In the case of Ireland, it has been discussed to death. See here:
more from ron unz on iq | hbd* chick
nd East Germany:
Evo and Proud: East Germans are getting a lot smarter ... Really?
If you're getting this from Ron Unz, you might want to do a little bit
more research.
1 3
Lorehead
Here, Ill quote her argument, from your own link:
the population of the republic of ireland seems to have bottomed
out just around the time of lynns 87 iq score for the irish in the
1970s. the irish economy improved in fits and starts in the
decades after that, and really took off in the heydays of the celtic
tiger nineties and noughties (howd that work out for them
anyway?). then there wasnt any need for anyone with half a
brain to leave the country anymore
Have you forgotten that youre trying to prove that a bad economy
doesntcause low IQ? Your own source concedes that the
causation runs in the direction I said!
dit: In case this wasnt clear, please dont take this as me
endorsing the speculations in that blog post.
11
JayMan
Have you forgotten that youre trying to prove that a bad economy
doesnt cause low IQ? Your own source concedes that the
causation runs in the direction I said!
No, that's not what she says. In the case of Ireland, it seems "brain
drain" was depressing their average IQ somewhat. This process
seems to have ended then. Ireland is now the recipient of "brain
gain", thanks to high-IQ immigrants coming in. This is evident in the
generation gap in average IQ scores there: tests of younger
cohorts, which is much more heavily composed of children of
immigrants (many from England) show higher IQ scores than older
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920565730http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920997221http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920543704http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920565730http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://evoandproud.blogspot.com/2012/09/east-germans-are-getting-lot-smarter.htmlhttp://hbdchick.wordpress.com/2012/07/26/more-from-ron-unz-on-iq/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920528254http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920543704http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920520499http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920528254http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920514747http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920520499http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920495210http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920514747http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://jaymans.wordpress.com/2013/06/06/welcome-readers-from-portugal/http://jaymans.wordpress.com/2012/05/09/a-tale-of-two-maps/http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/# -
7/28/2019 The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
11/18
07/06/13 The Mystery of Why Portugal Is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portug al-is-so-doomed/276371/#comments 11/18
co or s. e average o e coun ry as a w o e s s n e
lower 90s, and from this follows the poor economic situation the
country is experiencing.
Look, if you're arguing that poverty causes lower IQ scores, how do
ou explain how peoples in impoverished areas, such as poor rural
Chinese do ust as well as their wealthier cousins in Taiwan and
3 1
Lorehead
First, youre inventing your facts to save your theory. Theemigration from Ireland before the 1970s was mostly of unskilled
persons, the emigration of the 1980s was mostly of more-educated
persons, and contrary to what you just said, there is again net
emigration from Ireland. The semi-literate blog post you presented,
hich doesnt refute a thing Unz said, didnt even look up the data
on net emigration to realize there was net emigration in the 80s,
but simply assumed that population growth must mean an end to
emigration. Also, the 1972 study that found an average IQ of 87
as of schoolchildren, clearly incompatible with your assertion that
he IQ gap was driven by adult migration with childrens IQ reverting
o the mean.
Second, your position is still self-refuting on its face. Economy
Migration IQ still has the causation running from Economy IQ
rather than vice versa; furthermore, you concede that the Irish
economy improved first when the Irish did have a low average IQ,
hich according to you should be impossible.
hird, since you now admit that brain drains and brain gains
caused by temporary economic conditions can fully explain a
correlation between IQ and the economy, present your evidence
hat none of the other countries in your map are currently
undergoing a similar brain drain or brain gain.
6
JayMan
Second, your position is still self-refuting on its face. Economy
Migration IQ still has the causation running from Economy
IQ rather than vice versa
hen we're talking about migrations that are comparable in size to
the total population itself as was the case for Ireland then yeah,
migration can have a huge impact on the average IQ of the
population, as long as that migration is selective for IQ in any way
(which it almost always is).
The emigration from Ireland before the 1970s was mostly of
unskilled persons, the emigration of the 1980s was mostly of
more-educated persons
It's not like 19th and early 20th century Ireland is the present-day
United States. As noted in your very source, rates of education
greatly increased in Ireland in the latter part of the 20th century (as
it did in much of the now-developed world). "Uneducated" pre-1980
1
Lorehead
I dont want to lend you credibility you dont deserve by engaging
ou. You cant deny that the correlation runs from the economy to
IQ in Ireland and not vice versa, so you invent just-so stories to try
o explain why your racialism could still be true, and those just-so
stories do not stand up to even casual scrutiny. You no longer even
have a coherent argument; even if you werent wrong about whoimmigrated to and emigrated from Ireland and when, the claims
oure making dont support your conclusions.
For example, Ireland was seeing net emigration, mostly of more-
educated people, in the 80s, when you want there to have been a
brain gain. By your theories, a brain drain that lowered the IQs of
see more
see more
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921409292http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921535676http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921326096http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921409292http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://ftp.iza.org/dp97.pdfhttp://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-920997221http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921326096http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/# -
7/28/2019 The Mystery of Why Portugal is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
12/18
07/06/13 The Mystery of Why Portugal Is So Doomed - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portug al-is-so-doomed/276371/#comments 12/18
Irelands children, which you believe are not affected by
environment to any significant degree, should have been
permanent and precluded an economic boom. Since you dont
present any evidence to show that the same factors that applied to
Ireland dont also apply elsewhere, thats game, set and match.
our original claim was, No, poverty doesn't lead to poor
performance on IQ tests; low-IQ leads to poverty. The PIIGS are in
big trouble to varying degrees because of the lower average IQ of
heir populaces compared to their northern neighbors. Its quaint in
a way to see someone still spouting the racial prejudice of a
century ago toward the Irish, Italians and Slavs.
4
JayMan
Tour original claim was, No, poverty doesn't lead to poor
performance on IQ tests; low-IQ leads to poverty. The PIIGS are
in big trouble to varying degrees because of the lower average IQ
of their populaces compared to their northern neighbors. Its
quaint in a way to see someone still spouting the racial prejudice
of a century ago toward the Irish, Italians and Slavs.
How is discussing how the world IS "spouting ... racial prejudice?"
I dont want to lend you credibility you dont deserve by engaging
you. You cant deny that the correlation runs from the economy
to IQ in Ireland and not vice versa, so you invent just-so stories to
try to explain why your racialism could still be true, and those
just-so stories do not stand up to even casual scrutiny. You no
longer even have a coherent argument; even if you werent
wrong about who immigrated to and emigrated from Ireland and
when, the claims youre making dont support your conclusions.
Lorehead
t this point, youve simply abandoned your original claim that there
is a relationship between national IQ and the current unemployment
rate, which is what your two graphs purported to show. We both
agree: you were wrong.
2
JayMan
I'll leave you to work on what is wrong with that....
Lorehead
I also think were at an impasse here, so Ill share one more piece
of information missing from this discussion.
our conjecture is that Immigration in the 1990s and 2000s has
apparently been a net boost in IQ for Ireland, and accounts for the
IQ gain. However, 83% of the population of the Republic of Ireland
as born there in 2011, and only 5% came from Great Britain (and
not Northern Ireland). Over 30% of immigrants to Ireland in 2007
ere returning Irish. You cite the PISA as your source, which in
2009 found an Irish IQ of 100, the same as Britain, not the low
90s.
Lets do a bit of algebra. If the 83% of the population thats native-
born really did have an average IQ of 87, and the remaining 17%
accounted entirely for the increase to 100, what would the average
IQ of a foreign-born resident of Ireland have to be? Spoiler: 163.
his is obviously ludicrous.
1
JayMan
Ireland's current average IQ is probably not 100. The PISA test isn't
perfectly reliable because of inconsistencies in test taking
procedures (e.g., was there widespread cheating? Were the weak
see more
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921832041http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921852480http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921819542http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#comment-921832041http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-mystery-of-why-portugal-is-so-doomed/276371/#http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/the-my