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The Logistics of Cooperation:

A Study of Nathan Cullens Progressive Primaries Proposal

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Stuart Parker, a historian with 20 years of backroom political experience,1

here takes Nathan Cullensgeneral proposal for opposition party cooperation in the 2015 federal election campaign and turns it into a

practical roadmap.

Traditional opposition strategies are unlikely to beat the Harper Conservatives

For reasons set out at length with evidence, opposition party mergers are not on thenear horizon.

Neither the NDP nor the Liberal Party is likely to completely eclipse the other in publicsupport. Voting statistics and voter preference polling data demonstrate that go-it-alone

strategies by those parties are unlikely to defeat the Harper Conservativegovernment.

In particular, in the May 2011 general election the NDP under Jack Layton attracted just26 % of the popular vote outside Quebec. Since then Liberal popularity has revived

somewhat. Neither party is likely to overwhelm the other and any incredible

claim to be the only practical alternative is likely to backfire. The Liberal Party

remains the strongest alternative party in Ontario where most national media

organizations are headquartered, a significant reality which the. NDP cannot duck.

Efforts by non-party actors to game the electoral system with strategic or negative voting

campaigns are futile.

The Toronto Starwas unable in May 2011 to direct voters to Liberal or NDP candidatesdepending on which had a better chance to defeat the Conservative candidate...

Project Democracy and Catch 22 Harper Conservatives, two overlapping Anyone-But-Conservative internet campaigns, were unable even to identify the best-positioned

opposition candidate in more than 10 per cent of their targeted electoral districts. They

had little discernible impact on voting outcomes.

1Stuart served as founder and chairman of the BC Green Partys youth wing 1988-93, leader of the BC Green Party

1993-2000 and in a variety of provincial committee roles in the BC NDP 2001-04 including the Electoral Reform

Good Government and Standing Committee on the Environment. Currently a postdoctoral fellow of the SocialSciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and former lecturer at Thompson Rivers University and the

University of Toronto, Stuarts previous professional career includes serving as a consultant for the BC NDP,Liberal Party of Canada and public and government relations firms, including Barlee, Geoghegan and Associates,

Cadence Communications and National Public Relations. Since 1997, Stuart has been a leader in Canadas electoralreform movement, serving as a director of Fair Voting BC, Fair Vote Canada, Fair Vote Ontario, the BC Electoral

Change Coalition and the Toronto Democracy Initiative.

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The Untested National Option: Party-Co-ordinated Strategic Voting

There is strong precedent for effective party-directed vote pooling in British Columbiaprovincial politics and in major multi-party countries with winner-take-all voting

systems.

In Canada any cooperative or pooling strategy must be based on a shared promise by thepolitical parties involved to implement proportional representation for subsequent federal

elections. Without that there will be a sharp reduction in their collective public support,

probably to the net advantage of the Conservative Party.

Efficient vote retention and transfer could move 35 seats in Anglophone Canada from theConservative Party to the three federalist opposition parties. Even with national party

permission, Liberal, NDP or Green activists in swing ridings will be reluctant to participate

actively in local primaries to nominate a single opposition candidate.

Further Measures Needed to Promote Party Cooperation, Effective Vote Pooling and a Change of

Government in 2015

National party leaders and officials will need to advocate the local primary conceptvery actively to all riding associations in nationally designated target ridings.

The national parties should agree to target no more than 60 ridings for vote pooling andlocal primary candidate selection.

To minimize partisan conflict and enhance voter retention the local primarynominations should occur in a one-step process Opposition unity candidates should rununder combined party labels.

For maximum impact the three federalist opposition parties should consider opening theABC alliance to the Bloc Quebecois and other small political parties.