The Knowledge Cafe 2

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TowardsReinventing the Strategic Forum through a

profound new ParadigmDr. Llewellyn B. LewisDr. Llewellyn B. Lewis

March 2009March 2009

THE STRATEGIC FORUMwww.strategicforum.co.za

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BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc

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The pace of change has The pace of change has accelerated way beyond the comfort accelerated way beyond the comfort

zone of most peoplezone of most people The rules that guided decisions in The rules that guided decisions in

the past, are no longer reliablethe past, are no longer reliable The elements of change that are The elements of change that are

driving these momentous shifts, are driving these momentous shifts, are based on the fundamental based on the fundamental

dimensions of the universe itself.dimensions of the universe itself. Time, space and mass Time, space and mass

(Stan Davis : 2001)(Stan Davis : 2001)

www.leadershipreinvention.co.za

THE LANGUAGE OF COMPLEXITY

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Connectivity Connectivity is putting everyone and is putting everyone and everything on-line in one way or another everything on-line in one way or another and has led to theand has led to the death of distance,death of distance, a a

shrinking of space.shrinking of space. Intangible valueIntangible value of all kinds like of all kinds like

service and information, is growing service and information, is growing explosively, reducing the importance of explosively, reducing the importance of

tangible mass.tangible mass. Connectivity, Speed and IntangiblesConnectivity, Speed and Intangibles – –

thethe derivatives of time, space and massderivatives of time, space and mass – – are blurring the rules and redefining our are blurring the rules and redefining our

businesses and our lives.businesses and our lives. What we see is aWhat we see is a

melt-down of all traditional melt-down of all traditional boundaries.boundaries.

(Stan Davis : 2001)(Stan Davis : 2001)


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Since the economy and business are Since the economy and business are part of the universe,part of the universe, time, space and time, space and

massmass are the fundamental dimensions of are the fundamental dimensions of them as well.them as well.

Until recently, this notion was too Until recently, this notion was too abstract to be very useful.abstract to be very useful.

Now we are realising the extraordinary Now we are realising the extraordinary power this insight has to the business power this insight has to the business

world.world. Almost instantaneous communication Almost instantaneous communication

and computation areand computation are shrinking timeshrinking time and and focusing us on speed. focusing us on speed.

(Stan Davis : (Stan Davis : 2001)2001)


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Source: Stacey, Ralph D. Strategic Management & Organisational Dynamics. The challenge of Complexity: 2000)

ChaosComplexity DiversityStrange AttractorsEmergenceSelf OrganisationCritical MessOrder for Free The Butterfly effect


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Telephone

89 Years

Television

38 Years

Cell Phone14 Years

I pod7 Years

Facebook

5 Years

Mark Zuckerberg

Born May 14, 1984 (age 24)

White Plains, New York, U.S.

Occupation: Founder and CEO of Facebook

Net worth ▲ $1.5 billion

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The Net Generation’s modus operandi is networking. Young people dominate many of the huge on-line communities, from Facebook to MySpace, where millions of youths socialise and collaborate to do everything from evaluating companies’ products and services to providing entertainment and services on their own.

Zuckerberg is intensely focused on connecting the entire world on Facebook – only now his vision goes well beyond the site as a digital phone book. It becomes the equivalent of the phone itself: It is the main tool people use to communicate for work and pleasure. It is the central place where members organise parties, store pictures, find jobs, watch videos and play games.It will be the place where people live their digital lives - - -

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The principles of Wikinomics is based on mass collaboration which is changing how companies and societies harness knowledge and capability to innovate and create value. It affects just about every sector of society and every aspect of management.

A new kind of business is emerging – one that opens its doors to the world, co-innovates with everyone (especially customers), shares resources that were previously closely guarded and harnesses the power of mass collaboration.

At BMI-BRSCU we believe that information must be strategically empowering, therefore the old secrecy paradigm of “knowledge is power and must be held close to the chest” must be challenged.

If openness, transparency, freedom, flexibility, expansiveness, engagement and access are the language of the new net empowered world, then these are the values that we must espouse and practice.

Don Tapscott: Author of Wikinomocs

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2009 is the year in which we will develop and REINVENT our Strategic Forum and eclipse the old top down way of information management.The Difference? With our Web site we intend to launch vibrant communities; We discard the building of walled gardens of information. We intend to build a public square; We intend to innovate internally and with our users; We won’t jealously guard our data and software interfaces. We intend to share them with everybody.

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The New Web’s cutting edge phenomena and themes. The Blogosphere; Collective Intelligence; The New Public Squares; Emergent or serendipitous innovation

The Blogosphere: The World’s biggest Coffeehouse The blogging phenomenon points the way to the most profound changes the new Web will wreak on the economy; Blogs have been describes as the biggest coffeehouse on earth; They capture a moment-to-moment picture of people’s thoughts and feelings about things happening right now, turning the web from a collection of static documents into a running conversation; At BMI-BRSCU we intend to develop Blogging Patforms for all our Associates and to encourage strategic dialogue on them in open system, Coffeehouse.

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As stated by Tapscott and Williams (Wikinomics: 2007) the Web is no longer about idly surfing and passively reading, listening or watching.

It’s about peering: sharing, socializing, collaborating and, most of all, CREATING within loosely coupled communities.

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NEW BUSINESS RULE FOR COMPETITIVENESS: COLLABORATE OR PERISH! The coming together of a global platform for collaboration, a generation that grew up collaborating, and a global economy that enables new forms of economic cooperation is creating the conditions for a perfect storm that will drive deep changes in the strategy and architecture of firms; The old, ironclad vessels of the industrial era will sink under the crashing waves, while firms that create highly nimble and networked structures and connect to external ideas and energies will gain the buoyancy they require to survive; Companies that anticipate and lead these changes will win important advantages in their industries.

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NEW BUSINESS RULE FOR COMPETITIVENESS: COLLABORATE OR PERISH! At BMI-BRSCU we want to harness all the latest ideas and tools, such as sharing of our data base, some open and some closed, to encourage added value contributions; We want to develop a new approach to Stakeholder Collaboration through blogging and instant messaging; We want to create a net-based version of the Public Square or market place for ideas, innovations and uniquely qualified minds that thrive on collaboration; The Website must be a vibrant meeting place where our customers interact, engage, question, make suggestions, extract and add value and come back for rich and engaging life long learning experiences, which is not only information based but holistic and systemic;

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NEW BUSINESS RULE FOR COMPETITIVENESS: COLLABORATE OR PERISH!We want to create a different kind of professional and social networking environment based on Facebook where members can list their experience, expertise, interests and the issues they are most concerned about; Subscribers can link to other members’ profiles when they share similar problems, issues or interests and these can create connections that lead to new friendships or projects;These are some of the ideas for REINVENTING our Strategic Forum and for taking it to a new level; Subscribers are invited to collaborate and share ideas with us in this journey.

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THE STRATEGIC FORUM AND THE KNOWLEDGE CAFEwww.strategicforum.co.za

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The World Café is a conversational process based on a set of integrated design principles that reveal a deeper living network pattern through which we co-evolve our collective future.

As a conversational process, the World Café is an innovative yet simple methodology for hosting conversations about questions that matter.

These conversations link and build on each other as people move between groups, cross-pollinate ideas, and discover new insights into the questions or issues that are most important in their life, work, or community.

As a process, the World Café can evoke and make visible the collective intelligence of any group, thus increasing people’s capacity for effective action in pursuit of common aims.


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The integrated design principles have been distilled over the years as a guide to intentionally harnessing the power of conversation for business and social value. When used in combination, they provide useful guidance for anyone seeking creative ways to foster authentic dialogue in which the goal is thinking together and creating actionable knowledge.

As a living network pattern, the World Café refers to a living network of conversations that is continually co-evolving as we explore questions that matter with our family, friends, colleagues, and community. The metaphor of the "World as Café" helps us notice these invisible webs of dialogue and personal relationships that enable us to learn, create shared purpose, and shape life-affirming futures together.

In this sense, the World Café is also a growing global community of people, groups, organizations, and networks using World Café principles and processes to evoke collective intelligence and link it to effective action in pursuit of common aims.


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Knowledge Café


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Shaping our futures through conversations that matter

Knowledge

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There is an old saying that if you don't know where you are going any road will get you there. When you have a clear idea of the what and why of your Café then the how becomes much easier. Here are a few questions to ask yourself and those helping you plan:

What is the topic or issue we want to address or explore?Who needs to be invited to participate in this conversation?Who represents both the conventional and the unconventional wisdom?How long do we have for the inquiry?What line(s) of inquiry do we want to pursue? What themes are most likely to be meaningful and stimulate creativity?What is the best outcome we can envision? How might we design a path toward that outcome?

Set The Context


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Create Hospitable Space

When we ask people where they have experienced their most significant conversations, nearly everyone recalls sitting around a kitchen or dining room table. There is a easy intimacy when gathering at a small table, that most of us immediately recognize. When you walk into a room and see it filled with café tables you know that you are not in for your usual business meeting.


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Clarify the Purpose

We Pay attention early to the reason we are bringing people together. Knowing the purpose of your meeting enables you to consider which participants need to be there and what parameters are important to achieve your purpose.

Create a Hospitable Space

Café hosts around the world emphasize the power and importance of creating a hospitable space — one that feels safe and inviting. When people feel comfortable to be themselves, they do their most creative thinking, speaking, and listening. In particular, consider how your invitation and your physical set-up contribute to creating a welcoming atmosphere.


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Explore Questions that Matter

Finding and framing questions that matter to those who are participating in the Café is an area where thought and attention can produce profound results.

Our Café may only explore a single question, or several questions may be developed to support a logical progression of discovery throughout several rounds of dialogue. In many cases, Café conversations are as much about discovering and exploring powerful questions as they are about finding effective solutions.

Encourage Everyone's Contribution

As leaders we are increasingly aware of the importance of participation, but most

people don’t only want to participate, they want to actively contribute to making a

difference. It is important to encourage everyone in our meeting to contribute

their ideas and perspectives, while also allowing anyone who wants to participate by simply listening to do so.


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Connect Diverse PerspectivesThe opportunity to move between tables, meet new people, actively contribute your thinking, and link the essence of your discoveries to ever-widening circles of thought is one of the distinguishing characteristics of the Café. As participants carry key ideas or themes to new tables, they exchange perspectives, greatly enriching the possibility for surprising new insights.

Listen for Insights and Share Discoveries

Through practicing shared listening and paying attention to themes, patterns and insights, we begin to sense a connection to the larger whole. After several rounds of conversation, it is helpful to engage in a whole group conversation. This offers the entire group an opportunity to connect the overall themes or questions that are now present.


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"Share Collective Discoveries"

After each table has had the opportunity to share their insights, the whole group may wish to take a few minutes of silent reflection and consider:

What is emerging here?

If there was a single voice in the room, what would it be saying?

What deeper questions are emerging as a result of these conversations?

Do we notice any patterns and what do those patterns point to, or how do they inform us?

What do we now see and know as a result of these conversations?


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Our scenarios for building activity to 2020 is shown in the following slides. Give us your view. Just draw on the graphic the way you see the building and construction industry evolve to 2020.

Our view is that the next upturn will commence in January 2010 and continue until May 2015 (64 months). This will be followed by a short duration mild downturn to December 2017 (20 months) and then an upturn through to December 2010 (23 months) (but it could last until 2022).

More important - what is your view?

Shaping our futures through conversations that matter


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MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE: PROPERTY DELIVERY

TOTAL BUILDING ACTIVITY: 2000-2008 THE STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS: 2009-2020

(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

275,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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2007

VA

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TOTAL BUILDINGS : 2000-2007: LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2000-2007

1984 PEAK LEVEL OF INVESTMENT

TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGH ROAD COLUMBUS SCENARIO

TOTAL BUILDINGS LOW ROAD CHALLENGER SCENARIO

TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGHER MIDDLE ROAD APOLLO SCENARIO

TOTAL BUILDINGS LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO

1984 PEAK LEVEL OF

CURRENT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO?

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INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION: 2001-2008THE STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS: 2009-2020

(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

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2007

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MOTORWAY SCENARIO: 2007-2015 HIGHWAY SCENARIO: 2007-2015 FREEWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2015

BYWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2015 Peak 1980 Level Investment in Construction: 2001-2006

The currentMOST LIKELY FUTURE

?

1980 PEAK LEVEL OF INVESTMENT

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Residential Mortgage Advances : 2001 - 2008The Strategic Forum Scenarios: 2009-2020(Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

200,000

230,000

260,000

290,000

320,000

350,000

380,000

410,000

440,000

470,000

500,000

530,000

560,000

590,000

620,000

650,000

680,000

710,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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20

07

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High Road Miami Scenario: 2008-2015

Higher Middle Road Algarve Scenario: 2008-2015

Low Road Mombasa Scenario: 2008-2015

High Road Miami Scenario: 2008-2015

Low Road Mombasa Scenario: 2008-2015

Lower Middle Road Ipanema Scenario: 2001-2015

Current Most Likely Future?

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The home of Jenny and Llewellyn is an ideal venue for a Knowledge Cafe. The environment is spacious and pleasant with a view of the garden and the sound of water splashing into the pool from the conche in the mouth of the brass mermaid. It is a place of tranquility and beauty providing a background conducive to thought leadership and Socratic Dialogue,

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The RISK AVERSE policies of the Banks EXCACERBATE the cycles:

•When the House Price Index (HPI) rises Banks lend more freely leading to property speculation;

•For existing Homeowners it is wonderful because they can trade up!

•Then credit starts to become scarce as interest rates rise;

•House prices drop, building activity declines;

•Credit criteria of Banks become more stringent as they insist on lower Loan to Value (LTV) ratios and the National Credit Act suppresses demand.

At the Knowledge Cafe the conversation centred on the Scenario Outlook for the Building and Construction and Property Markets to 2020.

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A possible scenario for Political Development:

•Zuma Government will get Cosatu/Communist Party to toe the line;

•Possibility that DA/COPE will merge in next election;

•We don't understand the Black tribal culture;

•The problem of Africa is TRIBALISM;

•COPE is gathering middle-class Blacks, urbanised workers, low-income people are less sophisticated, vote ANC regardless and don't know better.

Cement usage is as follows:

• Non Residential 20%

• Residential 55%

• Construction 25%

•The CBA market research information indicates that production has decreased by 40% in response to reduced demand. This does not match the statistics on BPP and BC for 2008 versus 2007 (some 5% down in total);

•However it could mean that the downturn has taken effect rapidly after the end of 2008, particularly in Clay Brick intensive segments like Flats and Townhouses and Dwellings > 80 m2.

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The Banks are becoming increasingly RISK AVERSE and are applying strict credit criteria like insisting on 20% deposit;

Some 40% of Mortgage Loan Applications are declined and this is a self fulfilling prophecy;

In the longer term affordability will increase because of lower interest rates and because salaries are increasing at double digit historically high inflation rates;

Therefore risk profile is declining;

The Middle Income demand for housing is large and growing - time is the big player.

A sign that mortgage advances are under stress is that impairments are escalating;

9% of the mortgage book are payments in arrears;

Mortgage advances are back to 2003 levels.

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The creation of hospitable space is important in a successful knowledge cafe. The idea is to encourage strategic conversations that matter whilst establishing important network relationships in the process. This is best achieved around a Coffee Table where the contribution of everyone is valued.

Some of the insights emerging out of the discussions:

• Crime is the REAL KILLER.

• The refusal of an entry visa to the Dalai Lama is an emotive issue - a lame excuse.

• Taxi protests cause disruption (and is a blow to confidence).

• There is denial, no accountability on the part of Taxi Operators to accept the responsibility for violence.

• The same applies to BEE Companies - 1 out of 10 will accept responsibility for things that go wrong.


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We want to assist our clients to make sense of the future of the Building Industry System

We Take a Stand and Declare the Possibilityof

A REINVENTED STRATEGIC FORUM BASED ON AN IGNITING VISION, A COLLABORATIVE MINDSET AND

CROSS BOUNDARY NETWORKING

Leaders make the impossible happen


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The Knowledge Cafe 2

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Transcript of The Knowledge Cafe 2