The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the ocean’s tipping Points
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Transcript of The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the ocean’s tipping Points
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 115
Oceanography June 2010 115
E L E V E N H A N N U A L R O G E R R E V E L L E C O M M E M O R A I V E L E C U R E
Te Interconnected Biosphere
Science at the Oceanrsquos ipping PointsB Y J A N E L U B C H E N C O A N D L A U R A E P E E S
INRODUCION
Numerous studies have documented
the depletion and disruption o ocean
ecosystems at local to global scales the
consequences o these changes to human
well-being and the need or new atti-
tudes policies and practices to recover
and sustain healthy ocean ecosystems
and the variety o human activities
that depend upon them (Pew Oceans
Commission 2003 US Commission
on Ocean Policy 2004 Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment 2005 United
Nations Environment Programme
2006) Depleted fisheries endangered
turtles and marine mammals dead
zones bleached corals and outbreaks
o jellyfish harmul algal blooms and
diseases are all symptoms o the popula-
tion and ecosystem changes underway
Tese changes are the result o myriad
interacting stressors including over-
fishing chemical and nutrient pollution
use o destructive fishing gear climate
change ocean acidification habitat loss
and introduction o invasive species
However they also reflect the ailure
o current management and policy as
well as a lack o general awareness o the
causes and consequences o depletion
and disruption Te prospect o signifi-
cantly more disruption rom climate
change and ocean acidification looms
large and lends urgency to an already
serious situation
Many ocean ecosystems appear to be
at a critical juncture Like other complex
nonlinear systems ocean ecosystems
are ofen characterized by thresholds
or ldquotipping pointsrdquo where a little more
Remarks from the Eleventh Annual Roger Revelle Commemorative Lecture This lecture was created by the Ocean Studies
Board of the National Academies in honor of Dr Roger Revelle to highlight the important links between ocean sciences
and public policy Jane Lubchenco this yearrsquos speaker was introduced by Senator John Kerry and the lecture was held on
March 2 2010 at Baird Auditorium at the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum of Natural History
ABSRAC Advances in social and natural sciences provide hope or new
approaches to restore the bounty and resilience o ocean ecosystems From new
interdisciplinary approaches and conceptual rameworks to new toolsmdashsuch as
catch shares ecosystem-based management marine spatial planning and marine
reservesmdashto new insights into strategies or adapting to the impacts o climate
change and designing resilient and effective institutions new knowledge is beginning
to inorm policies and practices Tis decade is a pivotal one or the uture o the
ocean Te confluence o local regional and global changes in the oceanmdashdriven
by stressors including nutrient pollution habitat loss overfishing and climate
change and ocean acidificationmdashis rapidly transorming many once bountiul and
resilient ocean ecosystems into depleted or disrupted systems Degraded ecosystems
cannot provide key ecosystem services such as production o seaood protection
o coastlines rom severe storms and tsunamis capture o carbon and provision o
places or recreation Te accelerating pace o change presents daunting challenges
or communities businesses nations and the global community to make a transition
toward more sustainable practices and policies In this paper we highlight new
interdisciplinary approaches tools and insights that offer hope or recovering the
bounty and beauty o the ocean and the ongoing benefits that they provide to people
T i s a r t i c l e h a s b e e n p u b l i s h e d i n O c e a n o g r a p h y V o
l u m e 2 3 N u m b e r 2 a q u a r t e r l y j o u r n a l o f T e O c e a n o g r a p h y
S o c i e t y copy 2 0 1 0 b y T e O c e a n o g r a p h y S o c i e t y A l l r i g h t s r e s e r v e d P e r m i s s i o n i s g r a n t e d t o c o p y t h i s a r t i c l e f o r u s e i n t e a c h i n g a n d r e s e a r c h R e p u b l i c a t i o n s y s t e m m a t i c r e p r o d u c t i o n
orcol l ecti vered i sti rb uti onof anyporti onof th i sarti cl eb yph otocopymach i nereposti ngoroth ermeansi sperm
i tted onl ywi th th eapproval of TeOceanograph ySoci etySend al l correspond encetoi nf otosorgorTeOceanograph
ySoci etyP OB ox1 9 3 1 R ock vi l l eMD2 0 8 4 9 1 9 3 1 USA
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2116
change in a stressor can result in a
sudden and precipitous loss o ecological
unctionality Some marine systems have
already crossed a threshold resulting in
changes such as a rapid fishery collapse
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment2005 Biggs et al 2009) Others may well
be approaching tipping points Actions
taken now and in the coming decade
will likely determine the uture health o
most i not all ocean and coastal ecosys-
tems In turn the state o these ecosys-
tems will affect economic and social
well-being Existing scientific knowledge
is not being acquired or incorporated
rapidly enough into public understandingor into management and policy decisions
Tis essay seeks to ocus on some recent
advances in social and natural sciences
that are relevant to a transition toward
more sustainable practices and policies
Some o the advances are beginning to be
implemented but need to be scaled up
others have yet to be employed or trans-
lated into usable tools New knowledge in
high-priority areas is also needed
Te goal o this essay is to catalyze
interest in using scientific knowledge to
maximize the likelihood o achieving
healthy productive and resilient coastal
and ocean ecosystems and enabling a
vibrant suite o sustainable human uses
Jane Lubchenco (janelubchenconoaa
gov) is Under Secretary of Commerce
for Oceans and Atmosphere and
Administrator of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Washington DC USA Laura E Petes
(laurapetesnoaagov) is an American
Association for the Advancement of Science
(AAAS) Science and Technology Policy
Fellow NOAA Climate Program Office
Silver Spring MD USA
Roger Revelle
For almost hal a century Roger Revelle
was a leader in the field o oceanography
Revelle trained as a geologist at PomonaCollege and the University o Caliornia
Berkeley In 1936 he received his PhD
in oceanography rom the Scripps
Institution o Oceanography As a young
naval officer he helped persuade the Navy to create the Office o Naval
Research (ONR) to support basic research in oceanography and was
the first head o ONRrsquos geophysics branch Revelle served or 12 years
as the Director o Scripps (1950ndash1961 1963ndash1964) where he built up a
fleet o research ships and initiated a decade o expeditions to the deep
Pacific that challenged existing geological theoryRevellersquos early work on the carbon cycle suggested that the sea could
not absorb all the carbon dioxide released rom burning ossil uels
He organized the first continual measurement o atmospheric carbon
dioxide an effort led by Charles Keeling resulting in a long-term
record that has been essential to current research on global climate
change With Hans Suess he published the seminal paper demon-
strating the connection between increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide
and burning o ossil uels Revelle kept the issue o increasing carbon
dioxide levels beore the public and spearheaded efforts to investigate
the mechanisms and consequences o climate change
Revelle lef Scripps or critical posts as Science Advisor to the
Department o the Interior (1961ndash1963) and as the first Director o
the Center or Population Studies at Harvard (1964ndash1976) Revelle
applied his knowledge o geophysics ocean resources and population
dynamics to the worldrsquos most vexing problems poverty malnutrition
security and education
In 1957 Revelle became a member o the National Academy
o Sciences to which he devoted many hours o volunteer service
He served as a member o the Ocean Studies Board the Board on
Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and many committees He
also chaired a number o influential Academy studies on subjects
ranging rom the environmental effects o radiation to understanding
sea-level change
Photo credit SIO Archives UCSD
Oceanography Vol23 No2116
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 117
o oceans and coasts In the ollowing
pages we (1) highlight new scientific
understanding in the broad areas o
ecosystem services coupled natural and
social systems and resilience (2) ocus
on a ew promising tools and approachesto address the challenges ahead and
(3) describe areas or urther work
ECOSYSEM SERVICES
LINK HUMAN WELL983085BEING
O HE ENVIRONMEN
Managed and unmanaged ecosystems
provide the lie-support systems or
people and all lie on Earth (Daily et al
2000) Physical chemical and biologicalperturbations o the ocean land and
atmospheremdashespecially over the last ew
decadesmdashhave significantly altered the
unctioning o ecosystems and thus the
delivery o their lie-supporting services
(Vitousek et al 1997 Lubchenco
1998 National Research Council 1999
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
2005 United Nations Environment
Programme 2006 Carpenter et al
2009a) Te Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (2005) documents the
dependence o human well-being on
healthy ecosystems the global loss o
ecosystem services and the options or
reversing this trend In short human
well-being depends upon services
provided by ecosystems but human
activities have so utterly transormed
ecosystems and altered their unctioningthat 60 o ecosystem services are
currently at risk (Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment 2005 United Nations
Environment Programme 2006)
However in most cases viable options
exist or recovering and sustaining the
delivery o services
Ecosystem services are the benefits
provided by ecosystems they result
rom interactions o plants animals andmicrobes with one another and with the
environment Services vary according
to the type o ecosystem (eg coral ree
mangrove kelp orest open ocean)
Each ecosystem provides multiple
types o services provisioning services
such as seaood regulating services
such as coastal protection or climate
regulation cultural services such as
recreation and supporting services such
as nutrient cycling and primary produc-
tion (able 1 Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment 2005)
For example a mangrove ecosystem
provides wood fiber uel and nursery
habitat or numerous species (provi-
sioning services) it detoxifies and seques-
ters pollutants coming rom upstream
stores carbon traps sediment and thus
protects downstream coral rees andbuffers shores rom tsunamis and storms
(regulating services) it provides beau-
tiul places to fish or snorkel (cultural
services) and it recycles nutrients and
fixes carbon (supporting services)
Ecosystem unctioning and the
delivery o services are affected by
changes in biodiversity habitat ragmen-
tation and conversion climate change
and alterations to biogeochemical cyclesWhen an ecosystem is converted to
another use some services may be lost
and others gained For example when
mangroves are converted to shrimp
ponds airports shopping malls agri-
cultural lands or residential areas ood
production space or commerce or
transportation or housing services are
obtained but the natural services are
lost Similarly when river direction and
flow are modified to obtain navigation
and flood-control services the replenish-
ment o coastal wetlands and barrier
islands is diminished resulting in loss
able 1 Ecosystem services provided by the ocean Provisioning regulating and cultural services provide
direct benefits to humans supporting services are necessary for the production of all other ecosystem services
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 United Nations Environment Programme 2006)
Provisioning
Seafood habitat fuel wood
genetic resources
Regulating
Climate regulation disease and
pest regulation coastal protection
detoxification sediment trapping
Cultural
Aesthetic spiritual educational
recreational
Supporting
Nutrient cycling primary production
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2118
o habitat nursery areas carbon storage
and protection rom storms ypically
conversion or other alterations are
implemented without consideration o
the tradeoffs
Te importance o a service is ofennot appreciated until it is lost Post
Hurricane Katrina residents o New
Orleans speak openly about the need
to restore barrier islands and coastal
wetlands so they can unction as ldquospeed
bumpsrdquo or hurricanes Tis assertion
is also borne out elsewhere in the 2004
Indian Ocean tsunami areas o India
with intact mangroves suffered ewer
losses o human lives and property thandid areas where mangroves had been
cleared demonstrating the importance
o the buffering capacity provided by
these plants (Kathiresan and Rajendran
2005) At the global scale the loss o
species rom large marine ecosystems
has led to a reduction in the oceanrsquos
capacity to provide ood improve water
quality and recover rom disturbance
(Worm et al 2006)Although people will readily articulate
some o the benefits they derive rom
the ocean (Figure 1) they are usually
unaware o many others and they
ofen miss the key points that most o
those benefits depend on healthy ocean
ecosystems and that these ecosystems are
already degraded or threatened Clearly
translating general scientific knowledge
about the importance o ecosystemservices into useul guidance and tools
or decision makers is a high-priority
challenge Educating citizens and deci-
sion makers about the importance o
services is necessary but it is not suffi-
cient without tools and inormation to
translate that knowledge into practices
and policies Understanding assessing
and measuring ecosystem services can
be difficult (Carpenter and Folke 2006Carpenter et al 2009a) Moreover
most o the research on ecosystem
services has been conducted in terres-
trial systems In addition ecosystem
services need to be explicitly linked to
socioecological scenarios to demonstrate
how ecosystems benefit humans (allis
and Kareiva 2006)
Te utility o understanding and
communicating tradeoffs was demon-strated in the Catskill Mountains where
changes in watershed management to
improve water quality or New York
City were based on knowledge o the
Figure 1 Ecosystem services as articulated by the general public Photos used with permission from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 119
value provided by ecosystem services In
1996 when drinking water quality ell
below Environmental Protection Agency
standards due to degradation o the
watershed the City o New York aced
the dilemma o whether to invest inCatskill watershed ecosystem restoration
($1ndash15 billion) or a water filtration plant
($6ndash8 billion Chichilnisky and Heal
1998) Te decision to invest in ldquonatural
capitalrdquo (in the orm o ecosystem resto-
ration) saved money and restored both
the ecosystem services o interest (water
purification and filtration) as well as
other services such as carbon storage
and opportunities or recreation noneo which would have been obtained
through building a new filtration plant
(Heal et al 2001)
Tere are several emerging scientific
efforts to enhance our understanding
o the benefits that humans obtain rom
ecosystems and to apply that knowledge
in decision making Te challenge o
determining measuring and communi-
cating the values o ecosystem services
is being addressed through efforts such
as the Natural Capital Project (http
wwwnaturalcapitalprojectorg) a part-
nership among Stanord University
Te Nature Conservancy and the
World Wildlie Fund to develop tools
or acilitating incorporation o natural
capital (ie valuation o ecosystem
services) into decision making Teir
first tool InVES (Integrated Valuation
o Ecosystem Services and radeoffs)
can model and map the delivery
distribution and economic value o
ecosystem services into the uture
InVES allows users to visualize the
impacts o their potential decisions
which enables identification o tradeoffs
among environmental economic and
social benefits Tis tool has already been
applied successully using stakeholder-
defined scenarios to predict changes in
land use and associated tradeoffs in the
Willamette Valley Oregon (Nelson et al
2009) Although InVES was initiallyocused on terrestrial ecosystems it
is now being applied to coastal and
marine ecosystems to provide maps and
projections o ecosystem services under
different management alternatives or
issues such as tradeoffs associated with
large-scale implementation o desalina-
tion plants in Caliornia (Ruckelshaus
and Guerry 2009) Marine InVES
offers a promising new approach or
incorporating scientific inormation
about ecosystem services into decision
making and resource management
Effective valuation o ecosystem
services requires acknowledging that
global social change and global envi-
ronmental change interact with one
another (Young et al 2006) When
acing decisions that affect ecosystem
services tradeoffs between social values
and environmental outcomes can either
be win-win win-lose or lose-lose and
the challenge is to develop solutions
that are winndashwin where both social and
environmental goals are achieved (allis
et al 2008) Increased emphasis should
be placed on incorporating social data
and projections o social distributional
effects into ecosystem services valuation
in order to determine and maximize
win-win outcomes (allis and Polasky
2009) and on obtaining basic inorma-tion about the undamental workings
o coupled human-natural systems
(Carpenter et al 2009a)
One major obstacle to ecosystem
services valuation is that detailed inor-
mation on how people benefit rom
specific services at scales useul or deci-
sion making is currently sparse (urner
and Daily 2008) In addition because
ecosystem services valuation is a rela-
tively new field o science there are ew
examples o ldquolessons learnedrdquo to inorm
new efforts Databases are a useul
tool or providing centralized publicly
accessible sources o inormation Te
Natural Capital Database (httpwww
naturalcapitalprojectorgdatabase
html) currently under development
will be a compilation o strategies and
outcomes rom conservation projects
that have ocused on ecosystem services
Tis inormation clearinghouse will
allow decision makers and managers to
learn lessons rom previous efforts that
they may be able to apply to their own
planning processes
ldquo
HE ACCELERAING PACE OF CHANGE PRESENS
DAUNING CHALLENGES FOR COMMUNIIES
BUSINESSES NAIONS AND HE GLOBAL COMMUNIY
O MAKE A RANSIION OWARD MORE
SUSAINABLE PRACICES AND POLICIES
rdquo
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Oceanography Vol23 No2120
COUPLED SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
Cultures
Institutions
Individuals
SOCIALDOMAIN
ECOLOGICALDOMAIN
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
LocalEcosystems
RegionalSeascapes
Large MarineEcosystems
UNDERSANDING COUPLED
SOCIAL983085NAURAL SYSEMS AS
COMPLEX ADAPIVE SYSEMS
Until recently studies o social systems
and o natural systems proceeded inde-
pendently o one another Novel inter-disciplinary approaches have recently
emerged or studying human and
natural systems as coupled systems (Liu
et al 2007 Berkes et al 2008 Ostrom
2009) Tese efforts seek to understand
the interconnectedness o people
and ecosystems the bases o decision
making and perceptions o risk equity
and scale (Figure 2 Ostrom et al 1999
Dasgupta et al 2000 Dietz et al 2003Kinzig et al 2003 McLeod and Leslie
2009a) Interdisciplinary approaches
will enable the changes in practices
and policies needed to use ecosystems
sustainably and to acilitate human well-
being (Figure 3)
Insights rom other scientific areas
are also inorming the understanding
o coupled human and natural systems
specifically the study o complex adap-
tive systems Tese systems are defined
by the act that dynamics o interac-
tions at small scales affect macroscopicsystem dynamics which then eed back
to impact the small scales (Levin 1998)
Across numerous types o complex
adaptive systems the same key eatures
appear necessary or a system to be
robust and resilient (ie to have the
capacity to absorb stresses and continue
unctioning Levin and Lubchenco
2008) modular structure redundancy
o modules diversity and heterogeneityo modules and tight eedback loops
(Levin 1999) radeoffs exist between
elements and thereore optimum resil-
ience may be obtained at intermediate
levels o these components (Levin 1999)
Evidence suggests that ecosystems
with higher diversity are more resilient
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
2005) Tis has been documented or
areas that are recovering rom species
loss as diversity increases valu-
able ecosystem services are restored
leading to higher resilience (Wormet al 2006) New interdisciplinary
efforts such as the Resilience Alliance
(httpwwwresallianceorg) and the
Forum on Science and Innovation or
Sustainable Development (httpwww
sustainabilityscienceorg) are actively
exploring the dynamics o socioeco-
logical systems in order to provide a
oundation or sustainability Tese
efforts acknowledge that the study oecosystem resilience is complex and
requires interdisciplinary tools creative
approaches (eg network analyses
Janssen et al 2006) and collaborations
(Schellnhuber et al 2004 Walker and
Salt 2006 Carpenter et al 2009b Leslie
and Kinzig 2009) New approaches
that would enhance the capacity o
management systems to adapt quickly
in response to changing condi-
tions would be beneficial (Carpenter
and Brock 2008)
Incorporating social sciences into
decision making and adaptive manage-
ment is an arena where significant new
advances have begun Te 2009 Nobel
Prize in Economics to Elinor Ostrom
explicitly recognizes the importance o
interdisciplinary approaches the key role
that institutions play and the multiple
scales o decision making relevant to
managing common-pool resources
(eg Ostrom 2009) Organization o
human institutions can have a large
impact on ecosystem resilience and
sustainability thereore participatory
processes that acilitate experimenta-
tion learning and change will benefit
Figure 2 Schematic of nested interactions between human and ecological systems (McLeod and Leslie
2009b) Social and ecological domains interact over multiple geographic and organizational scales
understanding connections across scales is critical to the long-term success of ecosystem-based manage-
ment efforts Ecosystem services represent a key connection between domains and the flow of services is
affected by both social and ecological factors Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 715
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 815
Oceanography Vol23 No2122
Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management (EBM)
EBM simply means taking a place-
based ecosystem approach to manage-
ment with the goal o sustaining the
long-term capacity o the system to
deliver ecosystem services (Rosenberg
and McLeod 2005) Doing so requires
synthesizing and applying knowledge
rom social and natural sciences
EBM is different rom traditional
approaches that usually ocus on a single
species sector activity or concern In
contrast EBM considers the cumula-
tive impacts o different sectors and
the connections between people and
ecosystems as well as the connections
among the different components o
the ecosystem (Figure 4) Although
many EBM concepts have been codi-
fied only recently (McLeod et al 2005)
they are actively employed in multiple
ecosystems around the world Recent
advances in understanding and prac-
ticing EBM are summarized in McLeod
and Leslie (2009a)
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)
MSP also called coastal and marine
spatial planning is an EBM tool or
minimizing conflicts among users
and reducing impacts on ecosystem
unctioning Increasing demands on
ocean space or diverse uses including
tourism recreation fishing shipping
national security oil and gas exploration
and wave and wind energy have led to
more and more conflicts among users
as well as additional impacts on already
stressed ocean ecosystems (United
Nations Environment Programme 2006
Douvere 2008) MSP is a process that
enables integrated orward-looking
decision making through an ecosystem-
based spatially explicit approach (Ehler
and Douvere 2007) Spatial planning has
been practiced on land or centuries as
humans have determined how to allocate
specific areas or multiple uses including
orestry conservation development
and agriculture
Te concept o zoning in the ocean
is a relatively new idea Te first
comprehensive MSP was developed
in the 1980s or the Great Barrier Ree
Marine Park in Australia Specific areas
are zoned or different uses including
fishing and tourism and other areas are
designated as ully protected helping to
minimize user conflicts and ecosystem
impacts (Douvere 2008) Because o
the interdependency o human and
natural systems the MSP process is most
successul when it involves broad partici-
pation by stakeholder groups scientists
and managers (Pomeroy and Douvere
2008) In addition to consideration o
human uses it is important or planners
to understand the biological communi-
ties and the key processes that maintain
them in order to create plans that maxi-
mize ecosystem resilience (Crowder
and Norse 2008)
Efforts are currently underway to
develop marine spatial plans or the
United States On December 14 2009
President Obamarsquos Interagency Ocean
Policy ask Force released an interim
ramework or effective coastal and
able 2 A shift in approaches to management is underway for coastal and marine ecosystems
Historical Approach New Approach
Short-term perspective Long-term and evolutionary perspectives
Single-sector focus Multi-sector focus
Natural science approach Coupled natural and social science approach
Single-species management Ecosystem-based management
Focus on delivery of products Focus on maintaining ecosystem resilience and delivery of ecosystem services
Greater use of fines Greater use of incentives
Regulation of effort Regulation of outcome
Command and control centralized top-down regulation op-down plus bottom-up decision making more local control
Reactive Anticipatory and precautionary
Static Adaptive
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 123
EBM
GoalSustainable ecosystem
services andresilient ecosystems
TransportationManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient transport
accessible ports with links to land transport minimize
impacts on protectedspecies and habitat
EnergyManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient production
accessible to marketsminimize conicts
minimize habitat impacts
ScientifcAdvisory Body
Dynamicecosystem-wide
integrated assessment
FisheryManagement
Sector GoalsOptimize yield o target
species minimize bycatchreduce habitat impacts
maintain coastalcommunities
marine spatial planning wo weeks later
the Commonwealth o Massachusetts
became the first US state to release a
comprehensive ocean management plan
or its 1500-mile coastline (Figure 3a)
Other states and nations are pursuinguse o this tool as a vehicle or more
holistic management o ocean resources
and ecosystems
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)
and Reserves
MPAs provide a complementary tool
or protecting habitat biodiversity and
ecosystem unctioning (eg Halpern
et al in press) MPAs are areas o theocean that are managed or a conser-
vation benefit Tis tool provides an
ecosystem- and place-based approach to
management as opposed to a species-
based approach MPAs may be used
alone or as part o an MSP ramework
Fully protected (also called ldquono-takerdquo)
marine reserves are a type o MPA that
are completely protected rom all extrac-
tive and destructive activities (Lubchenco
et al 2003) Marine reserves currently
constitute lt 1 o the global ocean
(Wood et al 2008) Benefits o marine
reserves include habitat protection
biodiversity conservation enhancement
o ecosystem services recovery o over-
exploited stocks export o individuals
outside the reserve insurance against
environmental uncertainty and sites
or scientific research education and
recreation (Allison et al 1998) Scientific
analyses o the hundreds o no-take
marine reserves around the world
provide compelling evidence that they
do indeed protect biodiversity and habi-
tats (Gaines et al in press a) Density
diversity biomass and size o organisms
are higher inside reserves as opposed
to outside (Figure 5 Halpern 2003
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies
o Coastal Oceans 2007 Hamilton et al
in press) On average these benefits are
rapid (ofen occurring within one to
three years) and long-lasting (Halpernand Warner 2002) However not all
species respond rapidly and the rates at
which populations change depend on lie
histories and the availability o colonists
(Babcock et al in press) as well as social
actors (Pollnac et al in press)
Marine reserves provide a unique
mechanism or protecting large-bodied
individuals o fish and invertebrates
Large emales (otherwise known as ldquobig
old ecund emalesrdquo or BOFFs) have
much greater reproductive potential than
do smaller emales (Figure 6) and are
understood to be especially importantor sustaining populations Protection
o BOFFs may also help to counter the
negative evolutionary impacts o fishing
that result in reproduction at smaller
sizes (Baskett et al 2005) and in some
cases the distortion o size structure and
social structure or fish that are sequen-
tial hermaphrodites
Figure 4 Framing ecosystem-based management (EBM) goals across sectors (modi-
fied from Rosenberg and Sandifer 2009) Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2124
Average
BiomassN = 55
DensityN = 118
SizeN = 51
DiversityN = 39
P e r c e n t C h a n g e i n B i o l o g i c a l M
e a s u r e s
3000
2000
1000
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
446
2128
166
or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007) For example coastal
areas surrounding the Merritt Island
Florida reserve exhibited a rapid
increase in the number o world-record-
sized black drum red drum and spottedsea trout once the ully protected area
was established (Roberts et al 2001)
Reproduction within reserves
produces young that may be transported
by ocean currents outside the reserve
Tis ldquoexportrdquo o larvae is more difficult
to quantiy than ldquospilloverrdquo o juveniles
or adults but both processes transport
benefits rom inside a reserve to the
surrounding areas A network o marinereserves which is a set o reserves
separated by non-reserve waters but
connected by the movement o young
juveniles or adults can be designed to
maximize transport o benefits to the
outside (McCook et al in press Pelc
et al in press) Because o spillover
export and other benefits provided by
reserves optimal fisheries harvest occurs
when some areas o a region are tempo-
rarily or permanently closed (Costello
and Polasky 2008) Planning and imple-
mentation o marine reserve networks
are acilitated by access to biological and
socioeconomic inormation (Grorud-
Colvert et al in press Smith et al in
press) Te availability o high-quality
spatial inormation on the location
o fish populations allows or spatial
optimization in the implementation o
marine reserve networks that lead to
increased profit margins or surrounding
fisheries (Costello et al in press Gaines
et al in press b) For all o these reasons
no-take marine reserves and MPAs are
increasingly seen as useul tools in a
larger strategy to protect and restore
coastal and ocean ecosystems
Figure 5 Impact of no-take marine reserves on biomass density size and diver-
sity of species inside of a reserve Used with permission from the Partnership for
Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data from Lester et al (2009)
Figure 6 Relationship of number of young produced to body size of fish for vermillion rockfish A
23-inch vermillion rockfish produces 17 times more young than it did when it was 14 inches long
Used with permission from the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data fromLove et al (1990)
Productivity within marine reserves
also leads to ldquospilloverrdquomdashthe migra-
tion o animals rom inside the reserve
to the outsidemdashpotentially enhancing
commercial and recreational fisheries
surrounding the protected area or
contributing to recovery o depleted fish-
eries (Roberts et al 2001 Partnership
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 125
With ITQ
Without ITQ
Number of
ITQ Fisheries
Year
C
o l l a p s e d
I T
Q s I m p l e m e n t e d
0
10
20
30
100
75
50
25
0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Catch Shares
Catch shares provide an alternative
to traditional fishery management by
incorporating new understanding rom
social and economic sciences Instead
o individual commercial fishermenbeing incentivized by the ldquorace to fishrdquo
to outcompete others rights-based
fisheriesrsquo reorms offer an alternative
solution (Hilborn et al 2005) In lieu
o industry-wide quotas fishermen are
allocated individual quotas reerred
to as ldquocatch sharesrdquo o the total allow-
able catch and the goal is to provide
fishermen and communities with a
secure asset in order to create steward-ship incentives (Costello et al 2008)
Catch shares thus align economic and
conservation incentives Tey also hold
fishermen accountable or adhering
to the rules
Te concept o catch shares
pioneered in Australia New Zealand
and Iceland has now been implemented
or hundreds o fisheries throughout
the world Effectiveness o catch shares
was documented in a global analysis o
over 11000 fisheries Results indicated
that implementation o catch shares can
halt and even reverse trends toward
widespread fishery collapse (Figure 7
Costello et al 2008 Heal and Schlenker
2008) Tis evidence suggests that catch
shares offer a promising tool or sustain-
able fisheries management
o date 12 fisheries in the United
States have adopted this management
approach Te results have been impres-
sive sustainable fisheries improved
economic perormance o the fishery
decreased environmental impact and
increased saety at sea For example in
Alaskarsquos halibut (Figure 3c) and sablefish
fisheries the length o the fishing season
was extended rom less than a week to
eight months per year bycatch dropped
by 80 and saety improved sharply
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
In the Gul o Mexicorsquos red snapperfishery commercial overfishing ended
or the first time in decades fishermen
are receiving higher dockside prices
or their catch and reducing costs as
they are able to better plan their trips
and discards have decreased by 70
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
Catch shares are not necessarily suitable
or every fishery but they appear to holdpromise or many
Future Possible ools
Other tools seem ripe or development
but do not yet exist One is a nutrient-
trading scheme to decrease the flow o
excess nutrients rom agricultural and
livestock areas into coastal waters Dead
zones (areas o low oxygen) in coastal
oceans have spread exponentially since
the 1960s as a result o nutrient runoff
due to changes in agricultural and land-use practices dead zones now occur
over a total area o 245000 km2 (Diaz
and Rosenberg 2008) Fertilizer use in
the Mississippi River watershed which
drains 41 o the continental United
States leads to a severe seasonal dead
zone in the Gul o Mexico that extends
across 20000 km2 (Rabalais et al 2002)
One proposed approach or combating
excess nitrogen input might be the estab-lishment o cap-and-trade policy or
nitrogen where a limit would be set on
nitrogen input or each region (Socolow
1999) with regions able to trade quotas
A similar approach was successully used
by the Environmental Protection Agency
Figure 7 Percentage of fisheries collapsed (left y-axis) without (solid line) and with
(dotted line) catch share management using the Worm et al (2006) collapse threshold
of 10 of historical maximum (modified from Costello et al 2008) Individual trans-
ferable quotas (IQs) are a form of catch shares Te number of catch share fisheries
increases through time (right y-axis and dashed line) Used with permission from the
American Association for the Advancement of Science
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1215
Oceanography Vol23 No2126
under the Acid Rain Program to cap
emissions o sulur dioxide to reduce the
occurrence o acid rain Tis program
was so effective that sulur dioxide
reductions were achieved at significantly
lower costs and at much aster rates thanoriginally estimated
Another potentially useul tool would
involve better analytical methods or
detecting an approaching ecological
threshold or tipping point in time to
avert potential disaster (eg a fishery
collapse) Biggs et al (2009) provide
an example o such an early-warning
indicator Te lack o relevant long-term
data sets may present considerable chal-lenges in utilizing these tools thereore
efforts to urther develop them will need
to occur in parallel with (and should
inorm the development o) improved
monitoring efforts In addition the
utility o such indicators will rest upon
the adaptive capacity o management to
avert the shifmdashboth the ability o the
management regime to respond rapidly
and the ability to control the appropriate
drivers o change (Carpenter and Brock
2008 Biggs et al 2009)
None o the above tools offers a
panacea but each provides useul
approaches that build on existing
understanding rom both natural
and social sciences Maintaining the
suite o ecosystem services requires
protecting the unctioning o ecosys-
tems Integrated ecosystem assessments
that elucidate how the different social
and natural components interact provide
a decision-making ramework Place-based ecosystem-based and adaptive
management approaches are essential
New tools to acilitate understanding
o and decisions about tradeoffs will
be key In short effective management
o coastal and marine ecosystems will
require orward-thinking holistic and
ecosystem-based approaches that involve
users managers and scientific experts
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Continuing to educate and engage
citizens provide inormation to guide
decision making and develop and
implement new tools and approaches
based on the more holistic under-
standing described above will undoubt-
edly bring significant benefits For those
approaches to be maximally effective
additional inormation about ecosystem
and human patterns and processes
is needed such as basic patterns o
biodiversity understanding the scales
over which key ecosystem processes
operate socioeconomic inormation at
relevant scales methods or identiying
thresholds and approaches or designing
resilient institutions and manage-
ment structures Tis will also require
significant advances in ecosystem-
based science ecosystem services and
resilience rom a coupled humanndashnatural
system perspectiveIn addition inormation is not always
available at the relevant spatial scale or
management For example the majority
o climate change scenarios have been
developed or the global scale but most
o the impacts will be elt at local to
regional scales Tis mismatch o scales
makes it difficult or managers to incor-
porate climate inormation into their
planning processes Similarly effectivesustainable management o large-scale
resources (eg large marine ecosystems)
requires collaboration among interna-
tional national regional state and local
levels which creates challenges (Ostrom
et al 1999) Te need to address
problems at the local to regional scale
associated with shared global resources
is increasing Globalization is occur-
ring throughout many o our coupled
human-natural systems leading to
increased connectedness with both posi-
tive and negative results (Young et al
2006) A diversity o scales is necessary
or effective resilient management by
building on local and regional institu-
tions to ocus on global problems the
likelihood o success can be increased
(Ostrom et al 1999) Te ocus on
understanding impacts o climate change
on regions (US Global Change Research
Program 2009) is leading to increased
attention towards the ability o climate
models to resolve regional scales
Both climate change and ocean acidi-
fication are likely to transorm coastal
and ocean species ecosystems and
ecosystem services Priority should be
ldquoOUR FUURE DEPENDS UPON MAINAINING
HEALHY OCEAN AND COASAL ECOSYSEMS AND
HEALHY HUMAN COMMUNIIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1315
Oceanography June 2010 127
given to understanding the likely impacts
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion as well as ways to ameliorate those
impacts Given the rapid pace at which
ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by
doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict
the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)
Even though todayrsquos challenges are
already substantial climate change and
ocean acidification will interact with
and exacerbate the other drivers o
change Hence to be relevant and useul
management and policy must ocus on
tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural
systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-
sible Likely keys to success include the
ollowing approaches
bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such
as extinctions)
bull Managing or resilience
bull Managing with the expectation
o surprises
bull Creating flexible institutions with
capacity to adapt rapidly
bull Preserving as much biodiversity
(genetic species and habitat)
as possible
bull Developing rules o thumb or
managers in lieu o precise targets
bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors
over which there is more immediate
control
bull Sharing inormation and lessons via
learning networks
bull Investing effort in scientific research
to provide knowledge or the
above strategies
bull Supporting monitoring and
analysis to guide management and
policy decisions
In short these strategies all into two
categories (1) making better use o
existing inormation and (2) acquiring
new knowledge that would enhance
more sustainable practices and poli-
cies Incorporating climate change
and ocean acidification adaptation
strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way
to integrate a number o the above-
mentioned approaches
CONCLUDING REMARK S
Our uture depends upon maintaining
healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems
and healthy human communities Both
are in flux and each is coupled to the
other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide
a ocus or understanding policy and
management Awareness that natural
systems can undergo rapid change once
a tipping point is reached lends urgency
to the need or embracing novel tools
and approaches scaling up their use
and creating new knowledge inorma-
tion and tools
Global threats to our coastal
and marine ecosystems are rapidly
increasing We are currently operating
in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which
human activities have driven global
environmental change to a point that
has never beore been observed (Steffen
et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining
our natural resources are being depleted
and habitats are being destroyed Along
with these changes come the losses o
valuable ecosystem services on which
humans depend
In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-
tems social systems can also undergo
rapid change once a tipping point is
reached Knowledge that rapid soci-
etal shifs occur can provide hope
that successes in some places can be
quickly adopted and implemented Te
plethora o new advances and effective
tools successes at the local level and
engagement o citizens businesses and
scientists around the world provide
impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in
transitioning to more sustainable prac-
tices and policies
Priority actions include educating
citizens and policymakers about the
benefits o new approaches strength-
ening interdisciplinary approaches to
problem solving reducing the stres-
sors over which we have direct control
(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o
greenhouse gases to slow down the rates
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion protecting as much biodiversity as
possible and managing or ecosystem
resilience Holistic strategies or
engaging stakeholders and or preserving
or restoring ecosystem unctioning
and resilience are critical to success
Momentum is building inormed by
scientific advances and public involve-
ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo
ACKNOWLEDGEMENS
We would like to thank the National
Academies Ocean Studies Board
particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch
Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or
organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture
the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o
Natural History or hosting the event
and Senator John Kerry or providing
a dynamic introduction to the lecture
Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture
sponsors or their generous support
Logistical support rom Frank Parker
and figure design assistance rom Mike
Walker are also greatly appreciated
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
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Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
or marine conservation Ecological Applications
8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
Resilience for Complexity and Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
UK 416 pp
Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
urning back rom the brink Detecting and
impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America 106826ndash831
Carpenter SR and WA Brock 2008 Adaptive
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Carpenter SR and C Folke 2006 Ecology
or transormation rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or
managing ecosystem services Beyond the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 1061305ndash1312Carpenter SR C Folke M Scheffer and
F Westley 2009b Resilience Accounting or the
noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13
Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998
Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
harvesting o stochastic spatial resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 561ndash18
Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
Sea Change Report of the First International
Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3
UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)
Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
Letters 5361ndash366
Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands
marine reserve network Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
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Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
Series 38433ndash46
Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
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httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 215
Oceanography Vol23 No2116
change in a stressor can result in a
sudden and precipitous loss o ecological
unctionality Some marine systems have
already crossed a threshold resulting in
changes such as a rapid fishery collapse
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment2005 Biggs et al 2009) Others may well
be approaching tipping points Actions
taken now and in the coming decade
will likely determine the uture health o
most i not all ocean and coastal ecosys-
tems In turn the state o these ecosys-
tems will affect economic and social
well-being Existing scientific knowledge
is not being acquired or incorporated
rapidly enough into public understandingor into management and policy decisions
Tis essay seeks to ocus on some recent
advances in social and natural sciences
that are relevant to a transition toward
more sustainable practices and policies
Some o the advances are beginning to be
implemented but need to be scaled up
others have yet to be employed or trans-
lated into usable tools New knowledge in
high-priority areas is also needed
Te goal o this essay is to catalyze
interest in using scientific knowledge to
maximize the likelihood o achieving
healthy productive and resilient coastal
and ocean ecosystems and enabling a
vibrant suite o sustainable human uses
Jane Lubchenco (janelubchenconoaa
gov) is Under Secretary of Commerce
for Oceans and Atmosphere and
Administrator of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Washington DC USA Laura E Petes
(laurapetesnoaagov) is an American
Association for the Advancement of Science
(AAAS) Science and Technology Policy
Fellow NOAA Climate Program Office
Silver Spring MD USA
Roger Revelle
For almost hal a century Roger Revelle
was a leader in the field o oceanography
Revelle trained as a geologist at PomonaCollege and the University o Caliornia
Berkeley In 1936 he received his PhD
in oceanography rom the Scripps
Institution o Oceanography As a young
naval officer he helped persuade the Navy to create the Office o Naval
Research (ONR) to support basic research in oceanography and was
the first head o ONRrsquos geophysics branch Revelle served or 12 years
as the Director o Scripps (1950ndash1961 1963ndash1964) where he built up a
fleet o research ships and initiated a decade o expeditions to the deep
Pacific that challenged existing geological theoryRevellersquos early work on the carbon cycle suggested that the sea could
not absorb all the carbon dioxide released rom burning ossil uels
He organized the first continual measurement o atmospheric carbon
dioxide an effort led by Charles Keeling resulting in a long-term
record that has been essential to current research on global climate
change With Hans Suess he published the seminal paper demon-
strating the connection between increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide
and burning o ossil uels Revelle kept the issue o increasing carbon
dioxide levels beore the public and spearheaded efforts to investigate
the mechanisms and consequences o climate change
Revelle lef Scripps or critical posts as Science Advisor to the
Department o the Interior (1961ndash1963) and as the first Director o
the Center or Population Studies at Harvard (1964ndash1976) Revelle
applied his knowledge o geophysics ocean resources and population
dynamics to the worldrsquos most vexing problems poverty malnutrition
security and education
In 1957 Revelle became a member o the National Academy
o Sciences to which he devoted many hours o volunteer service
He served as a member o the Ocean Studies Board the Board on
Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and many committees He
also chaired a number o influential Academy studies on subjects
ranging rom the environmental effects o radiation to understanding
sea-level change
Photo credit SIO Archives UCSD
Oceanography Vol23 No2116
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Oceanography June 2010 117
o oceans and coasts In the ollowing
pages we (1) highlight new scientific
understanding in the broad areas o
ecosystem services coupled natural and
social systems and resilience (2) ocus
on a ew promising tools and approachesto address the challenges ahead and
(3) describe areas or urther work
ECOSYSEM SERVICES
LINK HUMAN WELL983085BEING
O HE ENVIRONMEN
Managed and unmanaged ecosystems
provide the lie-support systems or
people and all lie on Earth (Daily et al
2000) Physical chemical and biologicalperturbations o the ocean land and
atmospheremdashespecially over the last ew
decadesmdashhave significantly altered the
unctioning o ecosystems and thus the
delivery o their lie-supporting services
(Vitousek et al 1997 Lubchenco
1998 National Research Council 1999
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
2005 United Nations Environment
Programme 2006 Carpenter et al
2009a) Te Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (2005) documents the
dependence o human well-being on
healthy ecosystems the global loss o
ecosystem services and the options or
reversing this trend In short human
well-being depends upon services
provided by ecosystems but human
activities have so utterly transormed
ecosystems and altered their unctioningthat 60 o ecosystem services are
currently at risk (Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment 2005 United Nations
Environment Programme 2006)
However in most cases viable options
exist or recovering and sustaining the
delivery o services
Ecosystem services are the benefits
provided by ecosystems they result
rom interactions o plants animals andmicrobes with one another and with the
environment Services vary according
to the type o ecosystem (eg coral ree
mangrove kelp orest open ocean)
Each ecosystem provides multiple
types o services provisioning services
such as seaood regulating services
such as coastal protection or climate
regulation cultural services such as
recreation and supporting services such
as nutrient cycling and primary produc-
tion (able 1 Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment 2005)
For example a mangrove ecosystem
provides wood fiber uel and nursery
habitat or numerous species (provi-
sioning services) it detoxifies and seques-
ters pollutants coming rom upstream
stores carbon traps sediment and thus
protects downstream coral rees andbuffers shores rom tsunamis and storms
(regulating services) it provides beau-
tiul places to fish or snorkel (cultural
services) and it recycles nutrients and
fixes carbon (supporting services)
Ecosystem unctioning and the
delivery o services are affected by
changes in biodiversity habitat ragmen-
tation and conversion climate change
and alterations to biogeochemical cyclesWhen an ecosystem is converted to
another use some services may be lost
and others gained For example when
mangroves are converted to shrimp
ponds airports shopping malls agri-
cultural lands or residential areas ood
production space or commerce or
transportation or housing services are
obtained but the natural services are
lost Similarly when river direction and
flow are modified to obtain navigation
and flood-control services the replenish-
ment o coastal wetlands and barrier
islands is diminished resulting in loss
able 1 Ecosystem services provided by the ocean Provisioning regulating and cultural services provide
direct benefits to humans supporting services are necessary for the production of all other ecosystem services
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 United Nations Environment Programme 2006)
Provisioning
Seafood habitat fuel wood
genetic resources
Regulating
Climate regulation disease and
pest regulation coastal protection
detoxification sediment trapping
Cultural
Aesthetic spiritual educational
recreational
Supporting
Nutrient cycling primary production
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2118
o habitat nursery areas carbon storage
and protection rom storms ypically
conversion or other alterations are
implemented without consideration o
the tradeoffs
Te importance o a service is ofennot appreciated until it is lost Post
Hurricane Katrina residents o New
Orleans speak openly about the need
to restore barrier islands and coastal
wetlands so they can unction as ldquospeed
bumpsrdquo or hurricanes Tis assertion
is also borne out elsewhere in the 2004
Indian Ocean tsunami areas o India
with intact mangroves suffered ewer
losses o human lives and property thandid areas where mangroves had been
cleared demonstrating the importance
o the buffering capacity provided by
these plants (Kathiresan and Rajendran
2005) At the global scale the loss o
species rom large marine ecosystems
has led to a reduction in the oceanrsquos
capacity to provide ood improve water
quality and recover rom disturbance
(Worm et al 2006)Although people will readily articulate
some o the benefits they derive rom
the ocean (Figure 1) they are usually
unaware o many others and they
ofen miss the key points that most o
those benefits depend on healthy ocean
ecosystems and that these ecosystems are
already degraded or threatened Clearly
translating general scientific knowledge
about the importance o ecosystemservices into useul guidance and tools
or decision makers is a high-priority
challenge Educating citizens and deci-
sion makers about the importance o
services is necessary but it is not suffi-
cient without tools and inormation to
translate that knowledge into practices
and policies Understanding assessing
and measuring ecosystem services can
be difficult (Carpenter and Folke 2006Carpenter et al 2009a) Moreover
most o the research on ecosystem
services has been conducted in terres-
trial systems In addition ecosystem
services need to be explicitly linked to
socioecological scenarios to demonstrate
how ecosystems benefit humans (allis
and Kareiva 2006)
Te utility o understanding and
communicating tradeoffs was demon-strated in the Catskill Mountains where
changes in watershed management to
improve water quality or New York
City were based on knowledge o the
Figure 1 Ecosystem services as articulated by the general public Photos used with permission from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 119
value provided by ecosystem services In
1996 when drinking water quality ell
below Environmental Protection Agency
standards due to degradation o the
watershed the City o New York aced
the dilemma o whether to invest inCatskill watershed ecosystem restoration
($1ndash15 billion) or a water filtration plant
($6ndash8 billion Chichilnisky and Heal
1998) Te decision to invest in ldquonatural
capitalrdquo (in the orm o ecosystem resto-
ration) saved money and restored both
the ecosystem services o interest (water
purification and filtration) as well as
other services such as carbon storage
and opportunities or recreation noneo which would have been obtained
through building a new filtration plant
(Heal et al 2001)
Tere are several emerging scientific
efforts to enhance our understanding
o the benefits that humans obtain rom
ecosystems and to apply that knowledge
in decision making Te challenge o
determining measuring and communi-
cating the values o ecosystem services
is being addressed through efforts such
as the Natural Capital Project (http
wwwnaturalcapitalprojectorg) a part-
nership among Stanord University
Te Nature Conservancy and the
World Wildlie Fund to develop tools
or acilitating incorporation o natural
capital (ie valuation o ecosystem
services) into decision making Teir
first tool InVES (Integrated Valuation
o Ecosystem Services and radeoffs)
can model and map the delivery
distribution and economic value o
ecosystem services into the uture
InVES allows users to visualize the
impacts o their potential decisions
which enables identification o tradeoffs
among environmental economic and
social benefits Tis tool has already been
applied successully using stakeholder-
defined scenarios to predict changes in
land use and associated tradeoffs in the
Willamette Valley Oregon (Nelson et al
2009) Although InVES was initiallyocused on terrestrial ecosystems it
is now being applied to coastal and
marine ecosystems to provide maps and
projections o ecosystem services under
different management alternatives or
issues such as tradeoffs associated with
large-scale implementation o desalina-
tion plants in Caliornia (Ruckelshaus
and Guerry 2009) Marine InVES
offers a promising new approach or
incorporating scientific inormation
about ecosystem services into decision
making and resource management
Effective valuation o ecosystem
services requires acknowledging that
global social change and global envi-
ronmental change interact with one
another (Young et al 2006) When
acing decisions that affect ecosystem
services tradeoffs between social values
and environmental outcomes can either
be win-win win-lose or lose-lose and
the challenge is to develop solutions
that are winndashwin where both social and
environmental goals are achieved (allis
et al 2008) Increased emphasis should
be placed on incorporating social data
and projections o social distributional
effects into ecosystem services valuation
in order to determine and maximize
win-win outcomes (allis and Polasky
2009) and on obtaining basic inorma-tion about the undamental workings
o coupled human-natural systems
(Carpenter et al 2009a)
One major obstacle to ecosystem
services valuation is that detailed inor-
mation on how people benefit rom
specific services at scales useul or deci-
sion making is currently sparse (urner
and Daily 2008) In addition because
ecosystem services valuation is a rela-
tively new field o science there are ew
examples o ldquolessons learnedrdquo to inorm
new efforts Databases are a useul
tool or providing centralized publicly
accessible sources o inormation Te
Natural Capital Database (httpwww
naturalcapitalprojectorgdatabase
html) currently under development
will be a compilation o strategies and
outcomes rom conservation projects
that have ocused on ecosystem services
Tis inormation clearinghouse will
allow decision makers and managers to
learn lessons rom previous efforts that
they may be able to apply to their own
planning processes
ldquo
HE ACCELERAING PACE OF CHANGE PRESENS
DAUNING CHALLENGES FOR COMMUNIIES
BUSINESSES NAIONS AND HE GLOBAL COMMUNIY
O MAKE A RANSIION OWARD MORE
SUSAINABLE PRACICES AND POLICIES
rdquo
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Oceanography Vol23 No2120
COUPLED SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
Cultures
Institutions
Individuals
SOCIALDOMAIN
ECOLOGICALDOMAIN
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
LocalEcosystems
RegionalSeascapes
Large MarineEcosystems
UNDERSANDING COUPLED
SOCIAL983085NAURAL SYSEMS AS
COMPLEX ADAPIVE SYSEMS
Until recently studies o social systems
and o natural systems proceeded inde-
pendently o one another Novel inter-disciplinary approaches have recently
emerged or studying human and
natural systems as coupled systems (Liu
et al 2007 Berkes et al 2008 Ostrom
2009) Tese efforts seek to understand
the interconnectedness o people
and ecosystems the bases o decision
making and perceptions o risk equity
and scale (Figure 2 Ostrom et al 1999
Dasgupta et al 2000 Dietz et al 2003Kinzig et al 2003 McLeod and Leslie
2009a) Interdisciplinary approaches
will enable the changes in practices
and policies needed to use ecosystems
sustainably and to acilitate human well-
being (Figure 3)
Insights rom other scientific areas
are also inorming the understanding
o coupled human and natural systems
specifically the study o complex adap-
tive systems Tese systems are defined
by the act that dynamics o interac-
tions at small scales affect macroscopicsystem dynamics which then eed back
to impact the small scales (Levin 1998)
Across numerous types o complex
adaptive systems the same key eatures
appear necessary or a system to be
robust and resilient (ie to have the
capacity to absorb stresses and continue
unctioning Levin and Lubchenco
2008) modular structure redundancy
o modules diversity and heterogeneityo modules and tight eedback loops
(Levin 1999) radeoffs exist between
elements and thereore optimum resil-
ience may be obtained at intermediate
levels o these components (Levin 1999)
Evidence suggests that ecosystems
with higher diversity are more resilient
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
2005) Tis has been documented or
areas that are recovering rom species
loss as diversity increases valu-
able ecosystem services are restored
leading to higher resilience (Wormet al 2006) New interdisciplinary
efforts such as the Resilience Alliance
(httpwwwresallianceorg) and the
Forum on Science and Innovation or
Sustainable Development (httpwww
sustainabilityscienceorg) are actively
exploring the dynamics o socioeco-
logical systems in order to provide a
oundation or sustainability Tese
efforts acknowledge that the study oecosystem resilience is complex and
requires interdisciplinary tools creative
approaches (eg network analyses
Janssen et al 2006) and collaborations
(Schellnhuber et al 2004 Walker and
Salt 2006 Carpenter et al 2009b Leslie
and Kinzig 2009) New approaches
that would enhance the capacity o
management systems to adapt quickly
in response to changing condi-
tions would be beneficial (Carpenter
and Brock 2008)
Incorporating social sciences into
decision making and adaptive manage-
ment is an arena where significant new
advances have begun Te 2009 Nobel
Prize in Economics to Elinor Ostrom
explicitly recognizes the importance o
interdisciplinary approaches the key role
that institutions play and the multiple
scales o decision making relevant to
managing common-pool resources
(eg Ostrom 2009) Organization o
human institutions can have a large
impact on ecosystem resilience and
sustainability thereore participatory
processes that acilitate experimenta-
tion learning and change will benefit
Figure 2 Schematic of nested interactions between human and ecological systems (McLeod and Leslie
2009b) Social and ecological domains interact over multiple geographic and organizational scales
understanding connections across scales is critical to the long-term success of ecosystem-based manage-
ment efforts Ecosystem services represent a key connection between domains and the flow of services is
affected by both social and ecological factors Used with permission from Island Press
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8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 815
Oceanography Vol23 No2122
Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management (EBM)
EBM simply means taking a place-
based ecosystem approach to manage-
ment with the goal o sustaining the
long-term capacity o the system to
deliver ecosystem services (Rosenberg
and McLeod 2005) Doing so requires
synthesizing and applying knowledge
rom social and natural sciences
EBM is different rom traditional
approaches that usually ocus on a single
species sector activity or concern In
contrast EBM considers the cumula-
tive impacts o different sectors and
the connections between people and
ecosystems as well as the connections
among the different components o
the ecosystem (Figure 4) Although
many EBM concepts have been codi-
fied only recently (McLeod et al 2005)
they are actively employed in multiple
ecosystems around the world Recent
advances in understanding and prac-
ticing EBM are summarized in McLeod
and Leslie (2009a)
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)
MSP also called coastal and marine
spatial planning is an EBM tool or
minimizing conflicts among users
and reducing impacts on ecosystem
unctioning Increasing demands on
ocean space or diverse uses including
tourism recreation fishing shipping
national security oil and gas exploration
and wave and wind energy have led to
more and more conflicts among users
as well as additional impacts on already
stressed ocean ecosystems (United
Nations Environment Programme 2006
Douvere 2008) MSP is a process that
enables integrated orward-looking
decision making through an ecosystem-
based spatially explicit approach (Ehler
and Douvere 2007) Spatial planning has
been practiced on land or centuries as
humans have determined how to allocate
specific areas or multiple uses including
orestry conservation development
and agriculture
Te concept o zoning in the ocean
is a relatively new idea Te first
comprehensive MSP was developed
in the 1980s or the Great Barrier Ree
Marine Park in Australia Specific areas
are zoned or different uses including
fishing and tourism and other areas are
designated as ully protected helping to
minimize user conflicts and ecosystem
impacts (Douvere 2008) Because o
the interdependency o human and
natural systems the MSP process is most
successul when it involves broad partici-
pation by stakeholder groups scientists
and managers (Pomeroy and Douvere
2008) In addition to consideration o
human uses it is important or planners
to understand the biological communi-
ties and the key processes that maintain
them in order to create plans that maxi-
mize ecosystem resilience (Crowder
and Norse 2008)
Efforts are currently underway to
develop marine spatial plans or the
United States On December 14 2009
President Obamarsquos Interagency Ocean
Policy ask Force released an interim
ramework or effective coastal and
able 2 A shift in approaches to management is underway for coastal and marine ecosystems
Historical Approach New Approach
Short-term perspective Long-term and evolutionary perspectives
Single-sector focus Multi-sector focus
Natural science approach Coupled natural and social science approach
Single-species management Ecosystem-based management
Focus on delivery of products Focus on maintaining ecosystem resilience and delivery of ecosystem services
Greater use of fines Greater use of incentives
Regulation of effort Regulation of outcome
Command and control centralized top-down regulation op-down plus bottom-up decision making more local control
Reactive Anticipatory and precautionary
Static Adaptive
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Oceanography June 2010 123
EBM
GoalSustainable ecosystem
services andresilient ecosystems
TransportationManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient transport
accessible ports with links to land transport minimize
impacts on protectedspecies and habitat
EnergyManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient production
accessible to marketsminimize conicts
minimize habitat impacts
ScientifcAdvisory Body
Dynamicecosystem-wide
integrated assessment
FisheryManagement
Sector GoalsOptimize yield o target
species minimize bycatchreduce habitat impacts
maintain coastalcommunities
marine spatial planning wo weeks later
the Commonwealth o Massachusetts
became the first US state to release a
comprehensive ocean management plan
or its 1500-mile coastline (Figure 3a)
Other states and nations are pursuinguse o this tool as a vehicle or more
holistic management o ocean resources
and ecosystems
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)
and Reserves
MPAs provide a complementary tool
or protecting habitat biodiversity and
ecosystem unctioning (eg Halpern
et al in press) MPAs are areas o theocean that are managed or a conser-
vation benefit Tis tool provides an
ecosystem- and place-based approach to
management as opposed to a species-
based approach MPAs may be used
alone or as part o an MSP ramework
Fully protected (also called ldquono-takerdquo)
marine reserves are a type o MPA that
are completely protected rom all extrac-
tive and destructive activities (Lubchenco
et al 2003) Marine reserves currently
constitute lt 1 o the global ocean
(Wood et al 2008) Benefits o marine
reserves include habitat protection
biodiversity conservation enhancement
o ecosystem services recovery o over-
exploited stocks export o individuals
outside the reserve insurance against
environmental uncertainty and sites
or scientific research education and
recreation (Allison et al 1998) Scientific
analyses o the hundreds o no-take
marine reserves around the world
provide compelling evidence that they
do indeed protect biodiversity and habi-
tats (Gaines et al in press a) Density
diversity biomass and size o organisms
are higher inside reserves as opposed
to outside (Figure 5 Halpern 2003
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies
o Coastal Oceans 2007 Hamilton et al
in press) On average these benefits are
rapid (ofen occurring within one to
three years) and long-lasting (Halpernand Warner 2002) However not all
species respond rapidly and the rates at
which populations change depend on lie
histories and the availability o colonists
(Babcock et al in press) as well as social
actors (Pollnac et al in press)
Marine reserves provide a unique
mechanism or protecting large-bodied
individuals o fish and invertebrates
Large emales (otherwise known as ldquobig
old ecund emalesrdquo or BOFFs) have
much greater reproductive potential than
do smaller emales (Figure 6) and are
understood to be especially importantor sustaining populations Protection
o BOFFs may also help to counter the
negative evolutionary impacts o fishing
that result in reproduction at smaller
sizes (Baskett et al 2005) and in some
cases the distortion o size structure and
social structure or fish that are sequen-
tial hermaphrodites
Figure 4 Framing ecosystem-based management (EBM) goals across sectors (modi-
fied from Rosenberg and Sandifer 2009) Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2124
Average
BiomassN = 55
DensityN = 118
SizeN = 51
DiversityN = 39
P e r c e n t C h a n g e i n B i o l o g i c a l M
e a s u r e s
3000
2000
1000
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
446
2128
166
or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007) For example coastal
areas surrounding the Merritt Island
Florida reserve exhibited a rapid
increase in the number o world-record-
sized black drum red drum and spottedsea trout once the ully protected area
was established (Roberts et al 2001)
Reproduction within reserves
produces young that may be transported
by ocean currents outside the reserve
Tis ldquoexportrdquo o larvae is more difficult
to quantiy than ldquospilloverrdquo o juveniles
or adults but both processes transport
benefits rom inside a reserve to the
surrounding areas A network o marinereserves which is a set o reserves
separated by non-reserve waters but
connected by the movement o young
juveniles or adults can be designed to
maximize transport o benefits to the
outside (McCook et al in press Pelc
et al in press) Because o spillover
export and other benefits provided by
reserves optimal fisheries harvest occurs
when some areas o a region are tempo-
rarily or permanently closed (Costello
and Polasky 2008) Planning and imple-
mentation o marine reserve networks
are acilitated by access to biological and
socioeconomic inormation (Grorud-
Colvert et al in press Smith et al in
press) Te availability o high-quality
spatial inormation on the location
o fish populations allows or spatial
optimization in the implementation o
marine reserve networks that lead to
increased profit margins or surrounding
fisheries (Costello et al in press Gaines
et al in press b) For all o these reasons
no-take marine reserves and MPAs are
increasingly seen as useul tools in a
larger strategy to protect and restore
coastal and ocean ecosystems
Figure 5 Impact of no-take marine reserves on biomass density size and diver-
sity of species inside of a reserve Used with permission from the Partnership for
Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data from Lester et al (2009)
Figure 6 Relationship of number of young produced to body size of fish for vermillion rockfish A
23-inch vermillion rockfish produces 17 times more young than it did when it was 14 inches long
Used with permission from the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data fromLove et al (1990)
Productivity within marine reserves
also leads to ldquospilloverrdquomdashthe migra-
tion o animals rom inside the reserve
to the outsidemdashpotentially enhancing
commercial and recreational fisheries
surrounding the protected area or
contributing to recovery o depleted fish-
eries (Roberts et al 2001 Partnership
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Oceanography June 2010 125
With ITQ
Without ITQ
Number of
ITQ Fisheries
Year
C
o l l a p s e d
I T
Q s I m p l e m e n t e d
0
10
20
30
100
75
50
25
0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Catch Shares
Catch shares provide an alternative
to traditional fishery management by
incorporating new understanding rom
social and economic sciences Instead
o individual commercial fishermenbeing incentivized by the ldquorace to fishrdquo
to outcompete others rights-based
fisheriesrsquo reorms offer an alternative
solution (Hilborn et al 2005) In lieu
o industry-wide quotas fishermen are
allocated individual quotas reerred
to as ldquocatch sharesrdquo o the total allow-
able catch and the goal is to provide
fishermen and communities with a
secure asset in order to create steward-ship incentives (Costello et al 2008)
Catch shares thus align economic and
conservation incentives Tey also hold
fishermen accountable or adhering
to the rules
Te concept o catch shares
pioneered in Australia New Zealand
and Iceland has now been implemented
or hundreds o fisheries throughout
the world Effectiveness o catch shares
was documented in a global analysis o
over 11000 fisheries Results indicated
that implementation o catch shares can
halt and even reverse trends toward
widespread fishery collapse (Figure 7
Costello et al 2008 Heal and Schlenker
2008) Tis evidence suggests that catch
shares offer a promising tool or sustain-
able fisheries management
o date 12 fisheries in the United
States have adopted this management
approach Te results have been impres-
sive sustainable fisheries improved
economic perormance o the fishery
decreased environmental impact and
increased saety at sea For example in
Alaskarsquos halibut (Figure 3c) and sablefish
fisheries the length o the fishing season
was extended rom less than a week to
eight months per year bycatch dropped
by 80 and saety improved sharply
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
In the Gul o Mexicorsquos red snapperfishery commercial overfishing ended
or the first time in decades fishermen
are receiving higher dockside prices
or their catch and reducing costs as
they are able to better plan their trips
and discards have decreased by 70
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
Catch shares are not necessarily suitable
or every fishery but they appear to holdpromise or many
Future Possible ools
Other tools seem ripe or development
but do not yet exist One is a nutrient-
trading scheme to decrease the flow o
excess nutrients rom agricultural and
livestock areas into coastal waters Dead
zones (areas o low oxygen) in coastal
oceans have spread exponentially since
the 1960s as a result o nutrient runoff
due to changes in agricultural and land-use practices dead zones now occur
over a total area o 245000 km2 (Diaz
and Rosenberg 2008) Fertilizer use in
the Mississippi River watershed which
drains 41 o the continental United
States leads to a severe seasonal dead
zone in the Gul o Mexico that extends
across 20000 km2 (Rabalais et al 2002)
One proposed approach or combating
excess nitrogen input might be the estab-lishment o cap-and-trade policy or
nitrogen where a limit would be set on
nitrogen input or each region (Socolow
1999) with regions able to trade quotas
A similar approach was successully used
by the Environmental Protection Agency
Figure 7 Percentage of fisheries collapsed (left y-axis) without (solid line) and with
(dotted line) catch share management using the Worm et al (2006) collapse threshold
of 10 of historical maximum (modified from Costello et al 2008) Individual trans-
ferable quotas (IQs) are a form of catch shares Te number of catch share fisheries
increases through time (right y-axis and dashed line) Used with permission from the
American Association for the Advancement of Science
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1215
Oceanography Vol23 No2126
under the Acid Rain Program to cap
emissions o sulur dioxide to reduce the
occurrence o acid rain Tis program
was so effective that sulur dioxide
reductions were achieved at significantly
lower costs and at much aster rates thanoriginally estimated
Another potentially useul tool would
involve better analytical methods or
detecting an approaching ecological
threshold or tipping point in time to
avert potential disaster (eg a fishery
collapse) Biggs et al (2009) provide
an example o such an early-warning
indicator Te lack o relevant long-term
data sets may present considerable chal-lenges in utilizing these tools thereore
efforts to urther develop them will need
to occur in parallel with (and should
inorm the development o) improved
monitoring efforts In addition the
utility o such indicators will rest upon
the adaptive capacity o management to
avert the shifmdashboth the ability o the
management regime to respond rapidly
and the ability to control the appropriate
drivers o change (Carpenter and Brock
2008 Biggs et al 2009)
None o the above tools offers a
panacea but each provides useul
approaches that build on existing
understanding rom both natural
and social sciences Maintaining the
suite o ecosystem services requires
protecting the unctioning o ecosys-
tems Integrated ecosystem assessments
that elucidate how the different social
and natural components interact provide
a decision-making ramework Place-based ecosystem-based and adaptive
management approaches are essential
New tools to acilitate understanding
o and decisions about tradeoffs will
be key In short effective management
o coastal and marine ecosystems will
require orward-thinking holistic and
ecosystem-based approaches that involve
users managers and scientific experts
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Continuing to educate and engage
citizens provide inormation to guide
decision making and develop and
implement new tools and approaches
based on the more holistic under-
standing described above will undoubt-
edly bring significant benefits For those
approaches to be maximally effective
additional inormation about ecosystem
and human patterns and processes
is needed such as basic patterns o
biodiversity understanding the scales
over which key ecosystem processes
operate socioeconomic inormation at
relevant scales methods or identiying
thresholds and approaches or designing
resilient institutions and manage-
ment structures Tis will also require
significant advances in ecosystem-
based science ecosystem services and
resilience rom a coupled humanndashnatural
system perspectiveIn addition inormation is not always
available at the relevant spatial scale or
management For example the majority
o climate change scenarios have been
developed or the global scale but most
o the impacts will be elt at local to
regional scales Tis mismatch o scales
makes it difficult or managers to incor-
porate climate inormation into their
planning processes Similarly effectivesustainable management o large-scale
resources (eg large marine ecosystems)
requires collaboration among interna-
tional national regional state and local
levels which creates challenges (Ostrom
et al 1999) Te need to address
problems at the local to regional scale
associated with shared global resources
is increasing Globalization is occur-
ring throughout many o our coupled
human-natural systems leading to
increased connectedness with both posi-
tive and negative results (Young et al
2006) A diversity o scales is necessary
or effective resilient management by
building on local and regional institu-
tions to ocus on global problems the
likelihood o success can be increased
(Ostrom et al 1999) Te ocus on
understanding impacts o climate change
on regions (US Global Change Research
Program 2009) is leading to increased
attention towards the ability o climate
models to resolve regional scales
Both climate change and ocean acidi-
fication are likely to transorm coastal
and ocean species ecosystems and
ecosystem services Priority should be
ldquoOUR FUURE DEPENDS UPON MAINAINING
HEALHY OCEAN AND COASAL ECOSYSEMS AND
HEALHY HUMAN COMMUNIIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 127
given to understanding the likely impacts
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion as well as ways to ameliorate those
impacts Given the rapid pace at which
ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by
doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict
the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)
Even though todayrsquos challenges are
already substantial climate change and
ocean acidification will interact with
and exacerbate the other drivers o
change Hence to be relevant and useul
management and policy must ocus on
tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural
systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-
sible Likely keys to success include the
ollowing approaches
bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such
as extinctions)
bull Managing or resilience
bull Managing with the expectation
o surprises
bull Creating flexible institutions with
capacity to adapt rapidly
bull Preserving as much biodiversity
(genetic species and habitat)
as possible
bull Developing rules o thumb or
managers in lieu o precise targets
bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors
over which there is more immediate
control
bull Sharing inormation and lessons via
learning networks
bull Investing effort in scientific research
to provide knowledge or the
above strategies
bull Supporting monitoring and
analysis to guide management and
policy decisions
In short these strategies all into two
categories (1) making better use o
existing inormation and (2) acquiring
new knowledge that would enhance
more sustainable practices and poli-
cies Incorporating climate change
and ocean acidification adaptation
strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way
to integrate a number o the above-
mentioned approaches
CONCLUDING REMARK S
Our uture depends upon maintaining
healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems
and healthy human communities Both
are in flux and each is coupled to the
other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide
a ocus or understanding policy and
management Awareness that natural
systems can undergo rapid change once
a tipping point is reached lends urgency
to the need or embracing novel tools
and approaches scaling up their use
and creating new knowledge inorma-
tion and tools
Global threats to our coastal
and marine ecosystems are rapidly
increasing We are currently operating
in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which
human activities have driven global
environmental change to a point that
has never beore been observed (Steffen
et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining
our natural resources are being depleted
and habitats are being destroyed Along
with these changes come the losses o
valuable ecosystem services on which
humans depend
In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-
tems social systems can also undergo
rapid change once a tipping point is
reached Knowledge that rapid soci-
etal shifs occur can provide hope
that successes in some places can be
quickly adopted and implemented Te
plethora o new advances and effective
tools successes at the local level and
engagement o citizens businesses and
scientists around the world provide
impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in
transitioning to more sustainable prac-
tices and policies
Priority actions include educating
citizens and policymakers about the
benefits o new approaches strength-
ening interdisciplinary approaches to
problem solving reducing the stres-
sors over which we have direct control
(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o
greenhouse gases to slow down the rates
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion protecting as much biodiversity as
possible and managing or ecosystem
resilience Holistic strategies or
engaging stakeholders and or preserving
or restoring ecosystem unctioning
and resilience are critical to success
Momentum is building inormed by
scientific advances and public involve-
ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo
ACKNOWLEDGEMENS
We would like to thank the National
Academies Ocean Studies Board
particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch
Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or
organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture
the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o
Natural History or hosting the event
and Senator John Kerry or providing
a dynamic introduction to the lecture
Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture
sponsors or their generous support
Logistical support rom Frank Parker
and figure design assistance rom Mike
Walker are also greatly appreciated
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
REFERENCESAllison GW J Lubchenco and MH Carr 1998
Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
or marine conservation Ecological Applications
8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
Resilience for Complexity and Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
UK 416 pp
Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
urning back rom the brink Detecting and
impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America 106826ndash831
Carpenter SR and WA Brock 2008 Adaptive
capacity and traps Ecology and Society 13(2)40
Carpenter SR and C Folke 2006 Ecology
or transormation rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or
managing ecosystem services Beyond the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 1061305ndash1312Carpenter SR C Folke M Scheffer and
F Westley 2009b Resilience Accounting or the
noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13
Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998
Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
harvesting o stochastic spatial resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 561ndash18
Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
Sea Change Report of the First International
Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3
UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)
Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
Letters 5361ndash366
Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands
marine reserve network Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
eries Nature 4551044ndash1045
Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
Series 38433ndash46
Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 315
Oceanography June 2010 117
o oceans and coasts In the ollowing
pages we (1) highlight new scientific
understanding in the broad areas o
ecosystem services coupled natural and
social systems and resilience (2) ocus
on a ew promising tools and approachesto address the challenges ahead and
(3) describe areas or urther work
ECOSYSEM SERVICES
LINK HUMAN WELL983085BEING
O HE ENVIRONMEN
Managed and unmanaged ecosystems
provide the lie-support systems or
people and all lie on Earth (Daily et al
2000) Physical chemical and biologicalperturbations o the ocean land and
atmospheremdashespecially over the last ew
decadesmdashhave significantly altered the
unctioning o ecosystems and thus the
delivery o their lie-supporting services
(Vitousek et al 1997 Lubchenco
1998 National Research Council 1999
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
2005 United Nations Environment
Programme 2006 Carpenter et al
2009a) Te Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (2005) documents the
dependence o human well-being on
healthy ecosystems the global loss o
ecosystem services and the options or
reversing this trend In short human
well-being depends upon services
provided by ecosystems but human
activities have so utterly transormed
ecosystems and altered their unctioningthat 60 o ecosystem services are
currently at risk (Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment 2005 United Nations
Environment Programme 2006)
However in most cases viable options
exist or recovering and sustaining the
delivery o services
Ecosystem services are the benefits
provided by ecosystems they result
rom interactions o plants animals andmicrobes with one another and with the
environment Services vary according
to the type o ecosystem (eg coral ree
mangrove kelp orest open ocean)
Each ecosystem provides multiple
types o services provisioning services
such as seaood regulating services
such as coastal protection or climate
regulation cultural services such as
recreation and supporting services such
as nutrient cycling and primary produc-
tion (able 1 Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment 2005)
For example a mangrove ecosystem
provides wood fiber uel and nursery
habitat or numerous species (provi-
sioning services) it detoxifies and seques-
ters pollutants coming rom upstream
stores carbon traps sediment and thus
protects downstream coral rees andbuffers shores rom tsunamis and storms
(regulating services) it provides beau-
tiul places to fish or snorkel (cultural
services) and it recycles nutrients and
fixes carbon (supporting services)
Ecosystem unctioning and the
delivery o services are affected by
changes in biodiversity habitat ragmen-
tation and conversion climate change
and alterations to biogeochemical cyclesWhen an ecosystem is converted to
another use some services may be lost
and others gained For example when
mangroves are converted to shrimp
ponds airports shopping malls agri-
cultural lands or residential areas ood
production space or commerce or
transportation or housing services are
obtained but the natural services are
lost Similarly when river direction and
flow are modified to obtain navigation
and flood-control services the replenish-
ment o coastal wetlands and barrier
islands is diminished resulting in loss
able 1 Ecosystem services provided by the ocean Provisioning regulating and cultural services provide
direct benefits to humans supporting services are necessary for the production of all other ecosystem services
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 United Nations Environment Programme 2006)
Provisioning
Seafood habitat fuel wood
genetic resources
Regulating
Climate regulation disease and
pest regulation coastal protection
detoxification sediment trapping
Cultural
Aesthetic spiritual educational
recreational
Supporting
Nutrient cycling primary production
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 415
Oceanography Vol23 No2118
o habitat nursery areas carbon storage
and protection rom storms ypically
conversion or other alterations are
implemented without consideration o
the tradeoffs
Te importance o a service is ofennot appreciated until it is lost Post
Hurricane Katrina residents o New
Orleans speak openly about the need
to restore barrier islands and coastal
wetlands so they can unction as ldquospeed
bumpsrdquo or hurricanes Tis assertion
is also borne out elsewhere in the 2004
Indian Ocean tsunami areas o India
with intact mangroves suffered ewer
losses o human lives and property thandid areas where mangroves had been
cleared demonstrating the importance
o the buffering capacity provided by
these plants (Kathiresan and Rajendran
2005) At the global scale the loss o
species rom large marine ecosystems
has led to a reduction in the oceanrsquos
capacity to provide ood improve water
quality and recover rom disturbance
(Worm et al 2006)Although people will readily articulate
some o the benefits they derive rom
the ocean (Figure 1) they are usually
unaware o many others and they
ofen miss the key points that most o
those benefits depend on healthy ocean
ecosystems and that these ecosystems are
already degraded or threatened Clearly
translating general scientific knowledge
about the importance o ecosystemservices into useul guidance and tools
or decision makers is a high-priority
challenge Educating citizens and deci-
sion makers about the importance o
services is necessary but it is not suffi-
cient without tools and inormation to
translate that knowledge into practices
and policies Understanding assessing
and measuring ecosystem services can
be difficult (Carpenter and Folke 2006Carpenter et al 2009a) Moreover
most o the research on ecosystem
services has been conducted in terres-
trial systems In addition ecosystem
services need to be explicitly linked to
socioecological scenarios to demonstrate
how ecosystems benefit humans (allis
and Kareiva 2006)
Te utility o understanding and
communicating tradeoffs was demon-strated in the Catskill Mountains where
changes in watershed management to
improve water quality or New York
City were based on knowledge o the
Figure 1 Ecosystem services as articulated by the general public Photos used with permission from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 119
value provided by ecosystem services In
1996 when drinking water quality ell
below Environmental Protection Agency
standards due to degradation o the
watershed the City o New York aced
the dilemma o whether to invest inCatskill watershed ecosystem restoration
($1ndash15 billion) or a water filtration plant
($6ndash8 billion Chichilnisky and Heal
1998) Te decision to invest in ldquonatural
capitalrdquo (in the orm o ecosystem resto-
ration) saved money and restored both
the ecosystem services o interest (water
purification and filtration) as well as
other services such as carbon storage
and opportunities or recreation noneo which would have been obtained
through building a new filtration plant
(Heal et al 2001)
Tere are several emerging scientific
efforts to enhance our understanding
o the benefits that humans obtain rom
ecosystems and to apply that knowledge
in decision making Te challenge o
determining measuring and communi-
cating the values o ecosystem services
is being addressed through efforts such
as the Natural Capital Project (http
wwwnaturalcapitalprojectorg) a part-
nership among Stanord University
Te Nature Conservancy and the
World Wildlie Fund to develop tools
or acilitating incorporation o natural
capital (ie valuation o ecosystem
services) into decision making Teir
first tool InVES (Integrated Valuation
o Ecosystem Services and radeoffs)
can model and map the delivery
distribution and economic value o
ecosystem services into the uture
InVES allows users to visualize the
impacts o their potential decisions
which enables identification o tradeoffs
among environmental economic and
social benefits Tis tool has already been
applied successully using stakeholder-
defined scenarios to predict changes in
land use and associated tradeoffs in the
Willamette Valley Oregon (Nelson et al
2009) Although InVES was initiallyocused on terrestrial ecosystems it
is now being applied to coastal and
marine ecosystems to provide maps and
projections o ecosystem services under
different management alternatives or
issues such as tradeoffs associated with
large-scale implementation o desalina-
tion plants in Caliornia (Ruckelshaus
and Guerry 2009) Marine InVES
offers a promising new approach or
incorporating scientific inormation
about ecosystem services into decision
making and resource management
Effective valuation o ecosystem
services requires acknowledging that
global social change and global envi-
ronmental change interact with one
another (Young et al 2006) When
acing decisions that affect ecosystem
services tradeoffs between social values
and environmental outcomes can either
be win-win win-lose or lose-lose and
the challenge is to develop solutions
that are winndashwin where both social and
environmental goals are achieved (allis
et al 2008) Increased emphasis should
be placed on incorporating social data
and projections o social distributional
effects into ecosystem services valuation
in order to determine and maximize
win-win outcomes (allis and Polasky
2009) and on obtaining basic inorma-tion about the undamental workings
o coupled human-natural systems
(Carpenter et al 2009a)
One major obstacle to ecosystem
services valuation is that detailed inor-
mation on how people benefit rom
specific services at scales useul or deci-
sion making is currently sparse (urner
and Daily 2008) In addition because
ecosystem services valuation is a rela-
tively new field o science there are ew
examples o ldquolessons learnedrdquo to inorm
new efforts Databases are a useul
tool or providing centralized publicly
accessible sources o inormation Te
Natural Capital Database (httpwww
naturalcapitalprojectorgdatabase
html) currently under development
will be a compilation o strategies and
outcomes rom conservation projects
that have ocused on ecosystem services
Tis inormation clearinghouse will
allow decision makers and managers to
learn lessons rom previous efforts that
they may be able to apply to their own
planning processes
ldquo
HE ACCELERAING PACE OF CHANGE PRESENS
DAUNING CHALLENGES FOR COMMUNIIES
BUSINESSES NAIONS AND HE GLOBAL COMMUNIY
O MAKE A RANSIION OWARD MORE
SUSAINABLE PRACICES AND POLICIES
rdquo
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Oceanography Vol23 No2120
COUPLED SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
Cultures
Institutions
Individuals
SOCIALDOMAIN
ECOLOGICALDOMAIN
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
LocalEcosystems
RegionalSeascapes
Large MarineEcosystems
UNDERSANDING COUPLED
SOCIAL983085NAURAL SYSEMS AS
COMPLEX ADAPIVE SYSEMS
Until recently studies o social systems
and o natural systems proceeded inde-
pendently o one another Novel inter-disciplinary approaches have recently
emerged or studying human and
natural systems as coupled systems (Liu
et al 2007 Berkes et al 2008 Ostrom
2009) Tese efforts seek to understand
the interconnectedness o people
and ecosystems the bases o decision
making and perceptions o risk equity
and scale (Figure 2 Ostrom et al 1999
Dasgupta et al 2000 Dietz et al 2003Kinzig et al 2003 McLeod and Leslie
2009a) Interdisciplinary approaches
will enable the changes in practices
and policies needed to use ecosystems
sustainably and to acilitate human well-
being (Figure 3)
Insights rom other scientific areas
are also inorming the understanding
o coupled human and natural systems
specifically the study o complex adap-
tive systems Tese systems are defined
by the act that dynamics o interac-
tions at small scales affect macroscopicsystem dynamics which then eed back
to impact the small scales (Levin 1998)
Across numerous types o complex
adaptive systems the same key eatures
appear necessary or a system to be
robust and resilient (ie to have the
capacity to absorb stresses and continue
unctioning Levin and Lubchenco
2008) modular structure redundancy
o modules diversity and heterogeneityo modules and tight eedback loops
(Levin 1999) radeoffs exist between
elements and thereore optimum resil-
ience may be obtained at intermediate
levels o these components (Levin 1999)
Evidence suggests that ecosystems
with higher diversity are more resilient
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
2005) Tis has been documented or
areas that are recovering rom species
loss as diversity increases valu-
able ecosystem services are restored
leading to higher resilience (Wormet al 2006) New interdisciplinary
efforts such as the Resilience Alliance
(httpwwwresallianceorg) and the
Forum on Science and Innovation or
Sustainable Development (httpwww
sustainabilityscienceorg) are actively
exploring the dynamics o socioeco-
logical systems in order to provide a
oundation or sustainability Tese
efforts acknowledge that the study oecosystem resilience is complex and
requires interdisciplinary tools creative
approaches (eg network analyses
Janssen et al 2006) and collaborations
(Schellnhuber et al 2004 Walker and
Salt 2006 Carpenter et al 2009b Leslie
and Kinzig 2009) New approaches
that would enhance the capacity o
management systems to adapt quickly
in response to changing condi-
tions would be beneficial (Carpenter
and Brock 2008)
Incorporating social sciences into
decision making and adaptive manage-
ment is an arena where significant new
advances have begun Te 2009 Nobel
Prize in Economics to Elinor Ostrom
explicitly recognizes the importance o
interdisciplinary approaches the key role
that institutions play and the multiple
scales o decision making relevant to
managing common-pool resources
(eg Ostrom 2009) Organization o
human institutions can have a large
impact on ecosystem resilience and
sustainability thereore participatory
processes that acilitate experimenta-
tion learning and change will benefit
Figure 2 Schematic of nested interactions between human and ecological systems (McLeod and Leslie
2009b) Social and ecological domains interact over multiple geographic and organizational scales
understanding connections across scales is critical to the long-term success of ecosystem-based manage-
ment efforts Ecosystem services represent a key connection between domains and the flow of services is
affected by both social and ecological factors Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2122
Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management (EBM)
EBM simply means taking a place-
based ecosystem approach to manage-
ment with the goal o sustaining the
long-term capacity o the system to
deliver ecosystem services (Rosenberg
and McLeod 2005) Doing so requires
synthesizing and applying knowledge
rom social and natural sciences
EBM is different rom traditional
approaches that usually ocus on a single
species sector activity or concern In
contrast EBM considers the cumula-
tive impacts o different sectors and
the connections between people and
ecosystems as well as the connections
among the different components o
the ecosystem (Figure 4) Although
many EBM concepts have been codi-
fied only recently (McLeod et al 2005)
they are actively employed in multiple
ecosystems around the world Recent
advances in understanding and prac-
ticing EBM are summarized in McLeod
and Leslie (2009a)
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)
MSP also called coastal and marine
spatial planning is an EBM tool or
minimizing conflicts among users
and reducing impacts on ecosystem
unctioning Increasing demands on
ocean space or diverse uses including
tourism recreation fishing shipping
national security oil and gas exploration
and wave and wind energy have led to
more and more conflicts among users
as well as additional impacts on already
stressed ocean ecosystems (United
Nations Environment Programme 2006
Douvere 2008) MSP is a process that
enables integrated orward-looking
decision making through an ecosystem-
based spatially explicit approach (Ehler
and Douvere 2007) Spatial planning has
been practiced on land or centuries as
humans have determined how to allocate
specific areas or multiple uses including
orestry conservation development
and agriculture
Te concept o zoning in the ocean
is a relatively new idea Te first
comprehensive MSP was developed
in the 1980s or the Great Barrier Ree
Marine Park in Australia Specific areas
are zoned or different uses including
fishing and tourism and other areas are
designated as ully protected helping to
minimize user conflicts and ecosystem
impacts (Douvere 2008) Because o
the interdependency o human and
natural systems the MSP process is most
successul when it involves broad partici-
pation by stakeholder groups scientists
and managers (Pomeroy and Douvere
2008) In addition to consideration o
human uses it is important or planners
to understand the biological communi-
ties and the key processes that maintain
them in order to create plans that maxi-
mize ecosystem resilience (Crowder
and Norse 2008)
Efforts are currently underway to
develop marine spatial plans or the
United States On December 14 2009
President Obamarsquos Interagency Ocean
Policy ask Force released an interim
ramework or effective coastal and
able 2 A shift in approaches to management is underway for coastal and marine ecosystems
Historical Approach New Approach
Short-term perspective Long-term and evolutionary perspectives
Single-sector focus Multi-sector focus
Natural science approach Coupled natural and social science approach
Single-species management Ecosystem-based management
Focus on delivery of products Focus on maintaining ecosystem resilience and delivery of ecosystem services
Greater use of fines Greater use of incentives
Regulation of effort Regulation of outcome
Command and control centralized top-down regulation op-down plus bottom-up decision making more local control
Reactive Anticipatory and precautionary
Static Adaptive
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Oceanography June 2010 123
EBM
GoalSustainable ecosystem
services andresilient ecosystems
TransportationManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient transport
accessible ports with links to land transport minimize
impacts on protectedspecies and habitat
EnergyManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient production
accessible to marketsminimize conicts
minimize habitat impacts
ScientifcAdvisory Body
Dynamicecosystem-wide
integrated assessment
FisheryManagement
Sector GoalsOptimize yield o target
species minimize bycatchreduce habitat impacts
maintain coastalcommunities
marine spatial planning wo weeks later
the Commonwealth o Massachusetts
became the first US state to release a
comprehensive ocean management plan
or its 1500-mile coastline (Figure 3a)
Other states and nations are pursuinguse o this tool as a vehicle or more
holistic management o ocean resources
and ecosystems
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)
and Reserves
MPAs provide a complementary tool
or protecting habitat biodiversity and
ecosystem unctioning (eg Halpern
et al in press) MPAs are areas o theocean that are managed or a conser-
vation benefit Tis tool provides an
ecosystem- and place-based approach to
management as opposed to a species-
based approach MPAs may be used
alone or as part o an MSP ramework
Fully protected (also called ldquono-takerdquo)
marine reserves are a type o MPA that
are completely protected rom all extrac-
tive and destructive activities (Lubchenco
et al 2003) Marine reserves currently
constitute lt 1 o the global ocean
(Wood et al 2008) Benefits o marine
reserves include habitat protection
biodiversity conservation enhancement
o ecosystem services recovery o over-
exploited stocks export o individuals
outside the reserve insurance against
environmental uncertainty and sites
or scientific research education and
recreation (Allison et al 1998) Scientific
analyses o the hundreds o no-take
marine reserves around the world
provide compelling evidence that they
do indeed protect biodiversity and habi-
tats (Gaines et al in press a) Density
diversity biomass and size o organisms
are higher inside reserves as opposed
to outside (Figure 5 Halpern 2003
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies
o Coastal Oceans 2007 Hamilton et al
in press) On average these benefits are
rapid (ofen occurring within one to
three years) and long-lasting (Halpernand Warner 2002) However not all
species respond rapidly and the rates at
which populations change depend on lie
histories and the availability o colonists
(Babcock et al in press) as well as social
actors (Pollnac et al in press)
Marine reserves provide a unique
mechanism or protecting large-bodied
individuals o fish and invertebrates
Large emales (otherwise known as ldquobig
old ecund emalesrdquo or BOFFs) have
much greater reproductive potential than
do smaller emales (Figure 6) and are
understood to be especially importantor sustaining populations Protection
o BOFFs may also help to counter the
negative evolutionary impacts o fishing
that result in reproduction at smaller
sizes (Baskett et al 2005) and in some
cases the distortion o size structure and
social structure or fish that are sequen-
tial hermaphrodites
Figure 4 Framing ecosystem-based management (EBM) goals across sectors (modi-
fied from Rosenberg and Sandifer 2009) Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2124
Average
BiomassN = 55
DensityN = 118
SizeN = 51
DiversityN = 39
P e r c e n t C h a n g e i n B i o l o g i c a l M
e a s u r e s
3000
2000
1000
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
446
2128
166
or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007) For example coastal
areas surrounding the Merritt Island
Florida reserve exhibited a rapid
increase in the number o world-record-
sized black drum red drum and spottedsea trout once the ully protected area
was established (Roberts et al 2001)
Reproduction within reserves
produces young that may be transported
by ocean currents outside the reserve
Tis ldquoexportrdquo o larvae is more difficult
to quantiy than ldquospilloverrdquo o juveniles
or adults but both processes transport
benefits rom inside a reserve to the
surrounding areas A network o marinereserves which is a set o reserves
separated by non-reserve waters but
connected by the movement o young
juveniles or adults can be designed to
maximize transport o benefits to the
outside (McCook et al in press Pelc
et al in press) Because o spillover
export and other benefits provided by
reserves optimal fisheries harvest occurs
when some areas o a region are tempo-
rarily or permanently closed (Costello
and Polasky 2008) Planning and imple-
mentation o marine reserve networks
are acilitated by access to biological and
socioeconomic inormation (Grorud-
Colvert et al in press Smith et al in
press) Te availability o high-quality
spatial inormation on the location
o fish populations allows or spatial
optimization in the implementation o
marine reserve networks that lead to
increased profit margins or surrounding
fisheries (Costello et al in press Gaines
et al in press b) For all o these reasons
no-take marine reserves and MPAs are
increasingly seen as useul tools in a
larger strategy to protect and restore
coastal and ocean ecosystems
Figure 5 Impact of no-take marine reserves on biomass density size and diver-
sity of species inside of a reserve Used with permission from the Partnership for
Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data from Lester et al (2009)
Figure 6 Relationship of number of young produced to body size of fish for vermillion rockfish A
23-inch vermillion rockfish produces 17 times more young than it did when it was 14 inches long
Used with permission from the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data fromLove et al (1990)
Productivity within marine reserves
also leads to ldquospilloverrdquomdashthe migra-
tion o animals rom inside the reserve
to the outsidemdashpotentially enhancing
commercial and recreational fisheries
surrounding the protected area or
contributing to recovery o depleted fish-
eries (Roberts et al 2001 Partnership
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 125
With ITQ
Without ITQ
Number of
ITQ Fisheries
Year
C
o l l a p s e d
I T
Q s I m p l e m e n t e d
0
10
20
30
100
75
50
25
0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Catch Shares
Catch shares provide an alternative
to traditional fishery management by
incorporating new understanding rom
social and economic sciences Instead
o individual commercial fishermenbeing incentivized by the ldquorace to fishrdquo
to outcompete others rights-based
fisheriesrsquo reorms offer an alternative
solution (Hilborn et al 2005) In lieu
o industry-wide quotas fishermen are
allocated individual quotas reerred
to as ldquocatch sharesrdquo o the total allow-
able catch and the goal is to provide
fishermen and communities with a
secure asset in order to create steward-ship incentives (Costello et al 2008)
Catch shares thus align economic and
conservation incentives Tey also hold
fishermen accountable or adhering
to the rules
Te concept o catch shares
pioneered in Australia New Zealand
and Iceland has now been implemented
or hundreds o fisheries throughout
the world Effectiveness o catch shares
was documented in a global analysis o
over 11000 fisheries Results indicated
that implementation o catch shares can
halt and even reverse trends toward
widespread fishery collapse (Figure 7
Costello et al 2008 Heal and Schlenker
2008) Tis evidence suggests that catch
shares offer a promising tool or sustain-
able fisheries management
o date 12 fisheries in the United
States have adopted this management
approach Te results have been impres-
sive sustainable fisheries improved
economic perormance o the fishery
decreased environmental impact and
increased saety at sea For example in
Alaskarsquos halibut (Figure 3c) and sablefish
fisheries the length o the fishing season
was extended rom less than a week to
eight months per year bycatch dropped
by 80 and saety improved sharply
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
In the Gul o Mexicorsquos red snapperfishery commercial overfishing ended
or the first time in decades fishermen
are receiving higher dockside prices
or their catch and reducing costs as
they are able to better plan their trips
and discards have decreased by 70
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
Catch shares are not necessarily suitable
or every fishery but they appear to holdpromise or many
Future Possible ools
Other tools seem ripe or development
but do not yet exist One is a nutrient-
trading scheme to decrease the flow o
excess nutrients rom agricultural and
livestock areas into coastal waters Dead
zones (areas o low oxygen) in coastal
oceans have spread exponentially since
the 1960s as a result o nutrient runoff
due to changes in agricultural and land-use practices dead zones now occur
over a total area o 245000 km2 (Diaz
and Rosenberg 2008) Fertilizer use in
the Mississippi River watershed which
drains 41 o the continental United
States leads to a severe seasonal dead
zone in the Gul o Mexico that extends
across 20000 km2 (Rabalais et al 2002)
One proposed approach or combating
excess nitrogen input might be the estab-lishment o cap-and-trade policy or
nitrogen where a limit would be set on
nitrogen input or each region (Socolow
1999) with regions able to trade quotas
A similar approach was successully used
by the Environmental Protection Agency
Figure 7 Percentage of fisheries collapsed (left y-axis) without (solid line) and with
(dotted line) catch share management using the Worm et al (2006) collapse threshold
of 10 of historical maximum (modified from Costello et al 2008) Individual trans-
ferable quotas (IQs) are a form of catch shares Te number of catch share fisheries
increases through time (right y-axis and dashed line) Used with permission from the
American Association for the Advancement of Science
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2126
under the Acid Rain Program to cap
emissions o sulur dioxide to reduce the
occurrence o acid rain Tis program
was so effective that sulur dioxide
reductions were achieved at significantly
lower costs and at much aster rates thanoriginally estimated
Another potentially useul tool would
involve better analytical methods or
detecting an approaching ecological
threshold or tipping point in time to
avert potential disaster (eg a fishery
collapse) Biggs et al (2009) provide
an example o such an early-warning
indicator Te lack o relevant long-term
data sets may present considerable chal-lenges in utilizing these tools thereore
efforts to urther develop them will need
to occur in parallel with (and should
inorm the development o) improved
monitoring efforts In addition the
utility o such indicators will rest upon
the adaptive capacity o management to
avert the shifmdashboth the ability o the
management regime to respond rapidly
and the ability to control the appropriate
drivers o change (Carpenter and Brock
2008 Biggs et al 2009)
None o the above tools offers a
panacea but each provides useul
approaches that build on existing
understanding rom both natural
and social sciences Maintaining the
suite o ecosystem services requires
protecting the unctioning o ecosys-
tems Integrated ecosystem assessments
that elucidate how the different social
and natural components interact provide
a decision-making ramework Place-based ecosystem-based and adaptive
management approaches are essential
New tools to acilitate understanding
o and decisions about tradeoffs will
be key In short effective management
o coastal and marine ecosystems will
require orward-thinking holistic and
ecosystem-based approaches that involve
users managers and scientific experts
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Continuing to educate and engage
citizens provide inormation to guide
decision making and develop and
implement new tools and approaches
based on the more holistic under-
standing described above will undoubt-
edly bring significant benefits For those
approaches to be maximally effective
additional inormation about ecosystem
and human patterns and processes
is needed such as basic patterns o
biodiversity understanding the scales
over which key ecosystem processes
operate socioeconomic inormation at
relevant scales methods or identiying
thresholds and approaches or designing
resilient institutions and manage-
ment structures Tis will also require
significant advances in ecosystem-
based science ecosystem services and
resilience rom a coupled humanndashnatural
system perspectiveIn addition inormation is not always
available at the relevant spatial scale or
management For example the majority
o climate change scenarios have been
developed or the global scale but most
o the impacts will be elt at local to
regional scales Tis mismatch o scales
makes it difficult or managers to incor-
porate climate inormation into their
planning processes Similarly effectivesustainable management o large-scale
resources (eg large marine ecosystems)
requires collaboration among interna-
tional national regional state and local
levels which creates challenges (Ostrom
et al 1999) Te need to address
problems at the local to regional scale
associated with shared global resources
is increasing Globalization is occur-
ring throughout many o our coupled
human-natural systems leading to
increased connectedness with both posi-
tive and negative results (Young et al
2006) A diversity o scales is necessary
or effective resilient management by
building on local and regional institu-
tions to ocus on global problems the
likelihood o success can be increased
(Ostrom et al 1999) Te ocus on
understanding impacts o climate change
on regions (US Global Change Research
Program 2009) is leading to increased
attention towards the ability o climate
models to resolve regional scales
Both climate change and ocean acidi-
fication are likely to transorm coastal
and ocean species ecosystems and
ecosystem services Priority should be
ldquoOUR FUURE DEPENDS UPON MAINAINING
HEALHY OCEAN AND COASAL ECOSYSEMS AND
HEALHY HUMAN COMMUNIIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 127
given to understanding the likely impacts
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion as well as ways to ameliorate those
impacts Given the rapid pace at which
ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by
doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict
the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)
Even though todayrsquos challenges are
already substantial climate change and
ocean acidification will interact with
and exacerbate the other drivers o
change Hence to be relevant and useul
management and policy must ocus on
tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural
systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-
sible Likely keys to success include the
ollowing approaches
bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such
as extinctions)
bull Managing or resilience
bull Managing with the expectation
o surprises
bull Creating flexible institutions with
capacity to adapt rapidly
bull Preserving as much biodiversity
(genetic species and habitat)
as possible
bull Developing rules o thumb or
managers in lieu o precise targets
bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors
over which there is more immediate
control
bull Sharing inormation and lessons via
learning networks
bull Investing effort in scientific research
to provide knowledge or the
above strategies
bull Supporting monitoring and
analysis to guide management and
policy decisions
In short these strategies all into two
categories (1) making better use o
existing inormation and (2) acquiring
new knowledge that would enhance
more sustainable practices and poli-
cies Incorporating climate change
and ocean acidification adaptation
strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way
to integrate a number o the above-
mentioned approaches
CONCLUDING REMARK S
Our uture depends upon maintaining
healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems
and healthy human communities Both
are in flux and each is coupled to the
other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide
a ocus or understanding policy and
management Awareness that natural
systems can undergo rapid change once
a tipping point is reached lends urgency
to the need or embracing novel tools
and approaches scaling up their use
and creating new knowledge inorma-
tion and tools
Global threats to our coastal
and marine ecosystems are rapidly
increasing We are currently operating
in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which
human activities have driven global
environmental change to a point that
has never beore been observed (Steffen
et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining
our natural resources are being depleted
and habitats are being destroyed Along
with these changes come the losses o
valuable ecosystem services on which
humans depend
In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-
tems social systems can also undergo
rapid change once a tipping point is
reached Knowledge that rapid soci-
etal shifs occur can provide hope
that successes in some places can be
quickly adopted and implemented Te
plethora o new advances and effective
tools successes at the local level and
engagement o citizens businesses and
scientists around the world provide
impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in
transitioning to more sustainable prac-
tices and policies
Priority actions include educating
citizens and policymakers about the
benefits o new approaches strength-
ening interdisciplinary approaches to
problem solving reducing the stres-
sors over which we have direct control
(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o
greenhouse gases to slow down the rates
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion protecting as much biodiversity as
possible and managing or ecosystem
resilience Holistic strategies or
engaging stakeholders and or preserving
or restoring ecosystem unctioning
and resilience are critical to success
Momentum is building inormed by
scientific advances and public involve-
ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo
ACKNOWLEDGEMENS
We would like to thank the National
Academies Ocean Studies Board
particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch
Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or
organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture
the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o
Natural History or hosting the event
and Senator John Kerry or providing
a dynamic introduction to the lecture
Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture
sponsors or their generous support
Logistical support rom Frank Parker
and figure design assistance rom Mike
Walker are also greatly appreciated
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
REFERENCESAllison GW J Lubchenco and MH Carr 1998
Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
or marine conservation Ecological Applications
8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
Resilience for Complexity and Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
UK 416 pp
Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
urning back rom the brink Detecting and
impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America 106826ndash831
Carpenter SR and WA Brock 2008 Adaptive
capacity and traps Ecology and Society 13(2)40
Carpenter SR and C Folke 2006 Ecology
or transormation rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or
managing ecosystem services Beyond the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 1061305ndash1312Carpenter SR C Folke M Scheffer and
F Westley 2009b Resilience Accounting or the
noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13
Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998
Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
harvesting o stochastic spatial resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 561ndash18
Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
Sea Change Report of the First International
Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3
UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)
Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
Letters 5361ndash366
Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands
marine reserve network Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
eries Nature 4551044ndash1045
Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
Series 38433ndash46
Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2118
o habitat nursery areas carbon storage
and protection rom storms ypically
conversion or other alterations are
implemented without consideration o
the tradeoffs
Te importance o a service is ofennot appreciated until it is lost Post
Hurricane Katrina residents o New
Orleans speak openly about the need
to restore barrier islands and coastal
wetlands so they can unction as ldquospeed
bumpsrdquo or hurricanes Tis assertion
is also borne out elsewhere in the 2004
Indian Ocean tsunami areas o India
with intact mangroves suffered ewer
losses o human lives and property thandid areas where mangroves had been
cleared demonstrating the importance
o the buffering capacity provided by
these plants (Kathiresan and Rajendran
2005) At the global scale the loss o
species rom large marine ecosystems
has led to a reduction in the oceanrsquos
capacity to provide ood improve water
quality and recover rom disturbance
(Worm et al 2006)Although people will readily articulate
some o the benefits they derive rom
the ocean (Figure 1) they are usually
unaware o many others and they
ofen miss the key points that most o
those benefits depend on healthy ocean
ecosystems and that these ecosystems are
already degraded or threatened Clearly
translating general scientific knowledge
about the importance o ecosystemservices into useul guidance and tools
or decision makers is a high-priority
challenge Educating citizens and deci-
sion makers about the importance o
services is necessary but it is not suffi-
cient without tools and inormation to
translate that knowledge into practices
and policies Understanding assessing
and measuring ecosystem services can
be difficult (Carpenter and Folke 2006Carpenter et al 2009a) Moreover
most o the research on ecosystem
services has been conducted in terres-
trial systems In addition ecosystem
services need to be explicitly linked to
socioecological scenarios to demonstrate
how ecosystems benefit humans (allis
and Kareiva 2006)
Te utility o understanding and
communicating tradeoffs was demon-strated in the Catskill Mountains where
changes in watershed management to
improve water quality or New York
City were based on knowledge o the
Figure 1 Ecosystem services as articulated by the general public Photos used with permission from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 515
Oceanography June 2010 119
value provided by ecosystem services In
1996 when drinking water quality ell
below Environmental Protection Agency
standards due to degradation o the
watershed the City o New York aced
the dilemma o whether to invest inCatskill watershed ecosystem restoration
($1ndash15 billion) or a water filtration plant
($6ndash8 billion Chichilnisky and Heal
1998) Te decision to invest in ldquonatural
capitalrdquo (in the orm o ecosystem resto-
ration) saved money and restored both
the ecosystem services o interest (water
purification and filtration) as well as
other services such as carbon storage
and opportunities or recreation noneo which would have been obtained
through building a new filtration plant
(Heal et al 2001)
Tere are several emerging scientific
efforts to enhance our understanding
o the benefits that humans obtain rom
ecosystems and to apply that knowledge
in decision making Te challenge o
determining measuring and communi-
cating the values o ecosystem services
is being addressed through efforts such
as the Natural Capital Project (http
wwwnaturalcapitalprojectorg) a part-
nership among Stanord University
Te Nature Conservancy and the
World Wildlie Fund to develop tools
or acilitating incorporation o natural
capital (ie valuation o ecosystem
services) into decision making Teir
first tool InVES (Integrated Valuation
o Ecosystem Services and radeoffs)
can model and map the delivery
distribution and economic value o
ecosystem services into the uture
InVES allows users to visualize the
impacts o their potential decisions
which enables identification o tradeoffs
among environmental economic and
social benefits Tis tool has already been
applied successully using stakeholder-
defined scenarios to predict changes in
land use and associated tradeoffs in the
Willamette Valley Oregon (Nelson et al
2009) Although InVES was initiallyocused on terrestrial ecosystems it
is now being applied to coastal and
marine ecosystems to provide maps and
projections o ecosystem services under
different management alternatives or
issues such as tradeoffs associated with
large-scale implementation o desalina-
tion plants in Caliornia (Ruckelshaus
and Guerry 2009) Marine InVES
offers a promising new approach or
incorporating scientific inormation
about ecosystem services into decision
making and resource management
Effective valuation o ecosystem
services requires acknowledging that
global social change and global envi-
ronmental change interact with one
another (Young et al 2006) When
acing decisions that affect ecosystem
services tradeoffs between social values
and environmental outcomes can either
be win-win win-lose or lose-lose and
the challenge is to develop solutions
that are winndashwin where both social and
environmental goals are achieved (allis
et al 2008) Increased emphasis should
be placed on incorporating social data
and projections o social distributional
effects into ecosystem services valuation
in order to determine and maximize
win-win outcomes (allis and Polasky
2009) and on obtaining basic inorma-tion about the undamental workings
o coupled human-natural systems
(Carpenter et al 2009a)
One major obstacle to ecosystem
services valuation is that detailed inor-
mation on how people benefit rom
specific services at scales useul or deci-
sion making is currently sparse (urner
and Daily 2008) In addition because
ecosystem services valuation is a rela-
tively new field o science there are ew
examples o ldquolessons learnedrdquo to inorm
new efforts Databases are a useul
tool or providing centralized publicly
accessible sources o inormation Te
Natural Capital Database (httpwww
naturalcapitalprojectorgdatabase
html) currently under development
will be a compilation o strategies and
outcomes rom conservation projects
that have ocused on ecosystem services
Tis inormation clearinghouse will
allow decision makers and managers to
learn lessons rom previous efforts that
they may be able to apply to their own
planning processes
ldquo
HE ACCELERAING PACE OF CHANGE PRESENS
DAUNING CHALLENGES FOR COMMUNIIES
BUSINESSES NAIONS AND HE GLOBAL COMMUNIY
O MAKE A RANSIION OWARD MORE
SUSAINABLE PRACICES AND POLICIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2120
COUPLED SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
Cultures
Institutions
Individuals
SOCIALDOMAIN
ECOLOGICALDOMAIN
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
LocalEcosystems
RegionalSeascapes
Large MarineEcosystems
UNDERSANDING COUPLED
SOCIAL983085NAURAL SYSEMS AS
COMPLEX ADAPIVE SYSEMS
Until recently studies o social systems
and o natural systems proceeded inde-
pendently o one another Novel inter-disciplinary approaches have recently
emerged or studying human and
natural systems as coupled systems (Liu
et al 2007 Berkes et al 2008 Ostrom
2009) Tese efforts seek to understand
the interconnectedness o people
and ecosystems the bases o decision
making and perceptions o risk equity
and scale (Figure 2 Ostrom et al 1999
Dasgupta et al 2000 Dietz et al 2003Kinzig et al 2003 McLeod and Leslie
2009a) Interdisciplinary approaches
will enable the changes in practices
and policies needed to use ecosystems
sustainably and to acilitate human well-
being (Figure 3)
Insights rom other scientific areas
are also inorming the understanding
o coupled human and natural systems
specifically the study o complex adap-
tive systems Tese systems are defined
by the act that dynamics o interac-
tions at small scales affect macroscopicsystem dynamics which then eed back
to impact the small scales (Levin 1998)
Across numerous types o complex
adaptive systems the same key eatures
appear necessary or a system to be
robust and resilient (ie to have the
capacity to absorb stresses and continue
unctioning Levin and Lubchenco
2008) modular structure redundancy
o modules diversity and heterogeneityo modules and tight eedback loops
(Levin 1999) radeoffs exist between
elements and thereore optimum resil-
ience may be obtained at intermediate
levels o these components (Levin 1999)
Evidence suggests that ecosystems
with higher diversity are more resilient
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
2005) Tis has been documented or
areas that are recovering rom species
loss as diversity increases valu-
able ecosystem services are restored
leading to higher resilience (Wormet al 2006) New interdisciplinary
efforts such as the Resilience Alliance
(httpwwwresallianceorg) and the
Forum on Science and Innovation or
Sustainable Development (httpwww
sustainabilityscienceorg) are actively
exploring the dynamics o socioeco-
logical systems in order to provide a
oundation or sustainability Tese
efforts acknowledge that the study oecosystem resilience is complex and
requires interdisciplinary tools creative
approaches (eg network analyses
Janssen et al 2006) and collaborations
(Schellnhuber et al 2004 Walker and
Salt 2006 Carpenter et al 2009b Leslie
and Kinzig 2009) New approaches
that would enhance the capacity o
management systems to adapt quickly
in response to changing condi-
tions would be beneficial (Carpenter
and Brock 2008)
Incorporating social sciences into
decision making and adaptive manage-
ment is an arena where significant new
advances have begun Te 2009 Nobel
Prize in Economics to Elinor Ostrom
explicitly recognizes the importance o
interdisciplinary approaches the key role
that institutions play and the multiple
scales o decision making relevant to
managing common-pool resources
(eg Ostrom 2009) Organization o
human institutions can have a large
impact on ecosystem resilience and
sustainability thereore participatory
processes that acilitate experimenta-
tion learning and change will benefit
Figure 2 Schematic of nested interactions between human and ecological systems (McLeod and Leslie
2009b) Social and ecological domains interact over multiple geographic and organizational scales
understanding connections across scales is critical to the long-term success of ecosystem-based manage-
ment efforts Ecosystem services represent a key connection between domains and the flow of services is
affected by both social and ecological factors Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 715
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 815
Oceanography Vol23 No2122
Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management (EBM)
EBM simply means taking a place-
based ecosystem approach to manage-
ment with the goal o sustaining the
long-term capacity o the system to
deliver ecosystem services (Rosenberg
and McLeod 2005) Doing so requires
synthesizing and applying knowledge
rom social and natural sciences
EBM is different rom traditional
approaches that usually ocus on a single
species sector activity or concern In
contrast EBM considers the cumula-
tive impacts o different sectors and
the connections between people and
ecosystems as well as the connections
among the different components o
the ecosystem (Figure 4) Although
many EBM concepts have been codi-
fied only recently (McLeod et al 2005)
they are actively employed in multiple
ecosystems around the world Recent
advances in understanding and prac-
ticing EBM are summarized in McLeod
and Leslie (2009a)
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)
MSP also called coastal and marine
spatial planning is an EBM tool or
minimizing conflicts among users
and reducing impacts on ecosystem
unctioning Increasing demands on
ocean space or diverse uses including
tourism recreation fishing shipping
national security oil and gas exploration
and wave and wind energy have led to
more and more conflicts among users
as well as additional impacts on already
stressed ocean ecosystems (United
Nations Environment Programme 2006
Douvere 2008) MSP is a process that
enables integrated orward-looking
decision making through an ecosystem-
based spatially explicit approach (Ehler
and Douvere 2007) Spatial planning has
been practiced on land or centuries as
humans have determined how to allocate
specific areas or multiple uses including
orestry conservation development
and agriculture
Te concept o zoning in the ocean
is a relatively new idea Te first
comprehensive MSP was developed
in the 1980s or the Great Barrier Ree
Marine Park in Australia Specific areas
are zoned or different uses including
fishing and tourism and other areas are
designated as ully protected helping to
minimize user conflicts and ecosystem
impacts (Douvere 2008) Because o
the interdependency o human and
natural systems the MSP process is most
successul when it involves broad partici-
pation by stakeholder groups scientists
and managers (Pomeroy and Douvere
2008) In addition to consideration o
human uses it is important or planners
to understand the biological communi-
ties and the key processes that maintain
them in order to create plans that maxi-
mize ecosystem resilience (Crowder
and Norse 2008)
Efforts are currently underway to
develop marine spatial plans or the
United States On December 14 2009
President Obamarsquos Interagency Ocean
Policy ask Force released an interim
ramework or effective coastal and
able 2 A shift in approaches to management is underway for coastal and marine ecosystems
Historical Approach New Approach
Short-term perspective Long-term and evolutionary perspectives
Single-sector focus Multi-sector focus
Natural science approach Coupled natural and social science approach
Single-species management Ecosystem-based management
Focus on delivery of products Focus on maintaining ecosystem resilience and delivery of ecosystem services
Greater use of fines Greater use of incentives
Regulation of effort Regulation of outcome
Command and control centralized top-down regulation op-down plus bottom-up decision making more local control
Reactive Anticipatory and precautionary
Static Adaptive
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 123
EBM
GoalSustainable ecosystem
services andresilient ecosystems
TransportationManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient transport
accessible ports with links to land transport minimize
impacts on protectedspecies and habitat
EnergyManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient production
accessible to marketsminimize conicts
minimize habitat impacts
ScientifcAdvisory Body
Dynamicecosystem-wide
integrated assessment
FisheryManagement
Sector GoalsOptimize yield o target
species minimize bycatchreduce habitat impacts
maintain coastalcommunities
marine spatial planning wo weeks later
the Commonwealth o Massachusetts
became the first US state to release a
comprehensive ocean management plan
or its 1500-mile coastline (Figure 3a)
Other states and nations are pursuinguse o this tool as a vehicle or more
holistic management o ocean resources
and ecosystems
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)
and Reserves
MPAs provide a complementary tool
or protecting habitat biodiversity and
ecosystem unctioning (eg Halpern
et al in press) MPAs are areas o theocean that are managed or a conser-
vation benefit Tis tool provides an
ecosystem- and place-based approach to
management as opposed to a species-
based approach MPAs may be used
alone or as part o an MSP ramework
Fully protected (also called ldquono-takerdquo)
marine reserves are a type o MPA that
are completely protected rom all extrac-
tive and destructive activities (Lubchenco
et al 2003) Marine reserves currently
constitute lt 1 o the global ocean
(Wood et al 2008) Benefits o marine
reserves include habitat protection
biodiversity conservation enhancement
o ecosystem services recovery o over-
exploited stocks export o individuals
outside the reserve insurance against
environmental uncertainty and sites
or scientific research education and
recreation (Allison et al 1998) Scientific
analyses o the hundreds o no-take
marine reserves around the world
provide compelling evidence that they
do indeed protect biodiversity and habi-
tats (Gaines et al in press a) Density
diversity biomass and size o organisms
are higher inside reserves as opposed
to outside (Figure 5 Halpern 2003
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies
o Coastal Oceans 2007 Hamilton et al
in press) On average these benefits are
rapid (ofen occurring within one to
three years) and long-lasting (Halpernand Warner 2002) However not all
species respond rapidly and the rates at
which populations change depend on lie
histories and the availability o colonists
(Babcock et al in press) as well as social
actors (Pollnac et al in press)
Marine reserves provide a unique
mechanism or protecting large-bodied
individuals o fish and invertebrates
Large emales (otherwise known as ldquobig
old ecund emalesrdquo or BOFFs) have
much greater reproductive potential than
do smaller emales (Figure 6) and are
understood to be especially importantor sustaining populations Protection
o BOFFs may also help to counter the
negative evolutionary impacts o fishing
that result in reproduction at smaller
sizes (Baskett et al 2005) and in some
cases the distortion o size structure and
social structure or fish that are sequen-
tial hermaphrodites
Figure 4 Framing ecosystem-based management (EBM) goals across sectors (modi-
fied from Rosenberg and Sandifer 2009) Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1015
Oceanography Vol23 No2124
Average
BiomassN = 55
DensityN = 118
SizeN = 51
DiversityN = 39
P e r c e n t C h a n g e i n B i o l o g i c a l M
e a s u r e s
3000
2000
1000
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
446
2128
166
or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007) For example coastal
areas surrounding the Merritt Island
Florida reserve exhibited a rapid
increase in the number o world-record-
sized black drum red drum and spottedsea trout once the ully protected area
was established (Roberts et al 2001)
Reproduction within reserves
produces young that may be transported
by ocean currents outside the reserve
Tis ldquoexportrdquo o larvae is more difficult
to quantiy than ldquospilloverrdquo o juveniles
or adults but both processes transport
benefits rom inside a reserve to the
surrounding areas A network o marinereserves which is a set o reserves
separated by non-reserve waters but
connected by the movement o young
juveniles or adults can be designed to
maximize transport o benefits to the
outside (McCook et al in press Pelc
et al in press) Because o spillover
export and other benefits provided by
reserves optimal fisheries harvest occurs
when some areas o a region are tempo-
rarily or permanently closed (Costello
and Polasky 2008) Planning and imple-
mentation o marine reserve networks
are acilitated by access to biological and
socioeconomic inormation (Grorud-
Colvert et al in press Smith et al in
press) Te availability o high-quality
spatial inormation on the location
o fish populations allows or spatial
optimization in the implementation o
marine reserve networks that lead to
increased profit margins or surrounding
fisheries (Costello et al in press Gaines
et al in press b) For all o these reasons
no-take marine reserves and MPAs are
increasingly seen as useul tools in a
larger strategy to protect and restore
coastal and ocean ecosystems
Figure 5 Impact of no-take marine reserves on biomass density size and diver-
sity of species inside of a reserve Used with permission from the Partnership for
Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data from Lester et al (2009)
Figure 6 Relationship of number of young produced to body size of fish for vermillion rockfish A
23-inch vermillion rockfish produces 17 times more young than it did when it was 14 inches long
Used with permission from the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data fromLove et al (1990)
Productivity within marine reserves
also leads to ldquospilloverrdquomdashthe migra-
tion o animals rom inside the reserve
to the outsidemdashpotentially enhancing
commercial and recreational fisheries
surrounding the protected area or
contributing to recovery o depleted fish-
eries (Roberts et al 2001 Partnership
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1115
Oceanography June 2010 125
With ITQ
Without ITQ
Number of
ITQ Fisheries
Year
C
o l l a p s e d
I T
Q s I m p l e m e n t e d
0
10
20
30
100
75
50
25
0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Catch Shares
Catch shares provide an alternative
to traditional fishery management by
incorporating new understanding rom
social and economic sciences Instead
o individual commercial fishermenbeing incentivized by the ldquorace to fishrdquo
to outcompete others rights-based
fisheriesrsquo reorms offer an alternative
solution (Hilborn et al 2005) In lieu
o industry-wide quotas fishermen are
allocated individual quotas reerred
to as ldquocatch sharesrdquo o the total allow-
able catch and the goal is to provide
fishermen and communities with a
secure asset in order to create steward-ship incentives (Costello et al 2008)
Catch shares thus align economic and
conservation incentives Tey also hold
fishermen accountable or adhering
to the rules
Te concept o catch shares
pioneered in Australia New Zealand
and Iceland has now been implemented
or hundreds o fisheries throughout
the world Effectiveness o catch shares
was documented in a global analysis o
over 11000 fisheries Results indicated
that implementation o catch shares can
halt and even reverse trends toward
widespread fishery collapse (Figure 7
Costello et al 2008 Heal and Schlenker
2008) Tis evidence suggests that catch
shares offer a promising tool or sustain-
able fisheries management
o date 12 fisheries in the United
States have adopted this management
approach Te results have been impres-
sive sustainable fisheries improved
economic perormance o the fishery
decreased environmental impact and
increased saety at sea For example in
Alaskarsquos halibut (Figure 3c) and sablefish
fisheries the length o the fishing season
was extended rom less than a week to
eight months per year bycatch dropped
by 80 and saety improved sharply
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
In the Gul o Mexicorsquos red snapperfishery commercial overfishing ended
or the first time in decades fishermen
are receiving higher dockside prices
or their catch and reducing costs as
they are able to better plan their trips
and discards have decreased by 70
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
Catch shares are not necessarily suitable
or every fishery but they appear to holdpromise or many
Future Possible ools
Other tools seem ripe or development
but do not yet exist One is a nutrient-
trading scheme to decrease the flow o
excess nutrients rom agricultural and
livestock areas into coastal waters Dead
zones (areas o low oxygen) in coastal
oceans have spread exponentially since
the 1960s as a result o nutrient runoff
due to changes in agricultural and land-use practices dead zones now occur
over a total area o 245000 km2 (Diaz
and Rosenberg 2008) Fertilizer use in
the Mississippi River watershed which
drains 41 o the continental United
States leads to a severe seasonal dead
zone in the Gul o Mexico that extends
across 20000 km2 (Rabalais et al 2002)
One proposed approach or combating
excess nitrogen input might be the estab-lishment o cap-and-trade policy or
nitrogen where a limit would be set on
nitrogen input or each region (Socolow
1999) with regions able to trade quotas
A similar approach was successully used
by the Environmental Protection Agency
Figure 7 Percentage of fisheries collapsed (left y-axis) without (solid line) and with
(dotted line) catch share management using the Worm et al (2006) collapse threshold
of 10 of historical maximum (modified from Costello et al 2008) Individual trans-
ferable quotas (IQs) are a form of catch shares Te number of catch share fisheries
increases through time (right y-axis and dashed line) Used with permission from the
American Association for the Advancement of Science
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1215
Oceanography Vol23 No2126
under the Acid Rain Program to cap
emissions o sulur dioxide to reduce the
occurrence o acid rain Tis program
was so effective that sulur dioxide
reductions were achieved at significantly
lower costs and at much aster rates thanoriginally estimated
Another potentially useul tool would
involve better analytical methods or
detecting an approaching ecological
threshold or tipping point in time to
avert potential disaster (eg a fishery
collapse) Biggs et al (2009) provide
an example o such an early-warning
indicator Te lack o relevant long-term
data sets may present considerable chal-lenges in utilizing these tools thereore
efforts to urther develop them will need
to occur in parallel with (and should
inorm the development o) improved
monitoring efforts In addition the
utility o such indicators will rest upon
the adaptive capacity o management to
avert the shifmdashboth the ability o the
management regime to respond rapidly
and the ability to control the appropriate
drivers o change (Carpenter and Brock
2008 Biggs et al 2009)
None o the above tools offers a
panacea but each provides useul
approaches that build on existing
understanding rom both natural
and social sciences Maintaining the
suite o ecosystem services requires
protecting the unctioning o ecosys-
tems Integrated ecosystem assessments
that elucidate how the different social
and natural components interact provide
a decision-making ramework Place-based ecosystem-based and adaptive
management approaches are essential
New tools to acilitate understanding
o and decisions about tradeoffs will
be key In short effective management
o coastal and marine ecosystems will
require orward-thinking holistic and
ecosystem-based approaches that involve
users managers and scientific experts
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Continuing to educate and engage
citizens provide inormation to guide
decision making and develop and
implement new tools and approaches
based on the more holistic under-
standing described above will undoubt-
edly bring significant benefits For those
approaches to be maximally effective
additional inormation about ecosystem
and human patterns and processes
is needed such as basic patterns o
biodiversity understanding the scales
over which key ecosystem processes
operate socioeconomic inormation at
relevant scales methods or identiying
thresholds and approaches or designing
resilient institutions and manage-
ment structures Tis will also require
significant advances in ecosystem-
based science ecosystem services and
resilience rom a coupled humanndashnatural
system perspectiveIn addition inormation is not always
available at the relevant spatial scale or
management For example the majority
o climate change scenarios have been
developed or the global scale but most
o the impacts will be elt at local to
regional scales Tis mismatch o scales
makes it difficult or managers to incor-
porate climate inormation into their
planning processes Similarly effectivesustainable management o large-scale
resources (eg large marine ecosystems)
requires collaboration among interna-
tional national regional state and local
levels which creates challenges (Ostrom
et al 1999) Te need to address
problems at the local to regional scale
associated with shared global resources
is increasing Globalization is occur-
ring throughout many o our coupled
human-natural systems leading to
increased connectedness with both posi-
tive and negative results (Young et al
2006) A diversity o scales is necessary
or effective resilient management by
building on local and regional institu-
tions to ocus on global problems the
likelihood o success can be increased
(Ostrom et al 1999) Te ocus on
understanding impacts o climate change
on regions (US Global Change Research
Program 2009) is leading to increased
attention towards the ability o climate
models to resolve regional scales
Both climate change and ocean acidi-
fication are likely to transorm coastal
and ocean species ecosystems and
ecosystem services Priority should be
ldquoOUR FUURE DEPENDS UPON MAINAINING
HEALHY OCEAN AND COASAL ECOSYSEMS AND
HEALHY HUMAN COMMUNIIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1315
Oceanography June 2010 127
given to understanding the likely impacts
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion as well as ways to ameliorate those
impacts Given the rapid pace at which
ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by
doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict
the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)
Even though todayrsquos challenges are
already substantial climate change and
ocean acidification will interact with
and exacerbate the other drivers o
change Hence to be relevant and useul
management and policy must ocus on
tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural
systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-
sible Likely keys to success include the
ollowing approaches
bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such
as extinctions)
bull Managing or resilience
bull Managing with the expectation
o surprises
bull Creating flexible institutions with
capacity to adapt rapidly
bull Preserving as much biodiversity
(genetic species and habitat)
as possible
bull Developing rules o thumb or
managers in lieu o precise targets
bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors
over which there is more immediate
control
bull Sharing inormation and lessons via
learning networks
bull Investing effort in scientific research
to provide knowledge or the
above strategies
bull Supporting monitoring and
analysis to guide management and
policy decisions
In short these strategies all into two
categories (1) making better use o
existing inormation and (2) acquiring
new knowledge that would enhance
more sustainable practices and poli-
cies Incorporating climate change
and ocean acidification adaptation
strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way
to integrate a number o the above-
mentioned approaches
CONCLUDING REMARK S
Our uture depends upon maintaining
healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems
and healthy human communities Both
are in flux and each is coupled to the
other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide
a ocus or understanding policy and
management Awareness that natural
systems can undergo rapid change once
a tipping point is reached lends urgency
to the need or embracing novel tools
and approaches scaling up their use
and creating new knowledge inorma-
tion and tools
Global threats to our coastal
and marine ecosystems are rapidly
increasing We are currently operating
in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which
human activities have driven global
environmental change to a point that
has never beore been observed (Steffen
et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining
our natural resources are being depleted
and habitats are being destroyed Along
with these changes come the losses o
valuable ecosystem services on which
humans depend
In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-
tems social systems can also undergo
rapid change once a tipping point is
reached Knowledge that rapid soci-
etal shifs occur can provide hope
that successes in some places can be
quickly adopted and implemented Te
plethora o new advances and effective
tools successes at the local level and
engagement o citizens businesses and
scientists around the world provide
impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in
transitioning to more sustainable prac-
tices and policies
Priority actions include educating
citizens and policymakers about the
benefits o new approaches strength-
ening interdisciplinary approaches to
problem solving reducing the stres-
sors over which we have direct control
(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o
greenhouse gases to slow down the rates
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion protecting as much biodiversity as
possible and managing or ecosystem
resilience Holistic strategies or
engaging stakeholders and or preserving
or restoring ecosystem unctioning
and resilience are critical to success
Momentum is building inormed by
scientific advances and public involve-
ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo
ACKNOWLEDGEMENS
We would like to thank the National
Academies Ocean Studies Board
particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch
Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or
organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture
the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o
Natural History or hosting the event
and Senator John Kerry or providing
a dynamic introduction to the lecture
Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture
sponsors or their generous support
Logistical support rom Frank Parker
and figure design assistance rom Mike
Walker are also greatly appreciated
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
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Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
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8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
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Cambridge University Press Cambridge
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Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
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Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
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Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
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Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
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Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
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UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
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Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
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of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
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Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
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of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
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National Academy of Sciences of the United
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Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
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Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
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Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
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httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 119
value provided by ecosystem services In
1996 when drinking water quality ell
below Environmental Protection Agency
standards due to degradation o the
watershed the City o New York aced
the dilemma o whether to invest inCatskill watershed ecosystem restoration
($1ndash15 billion) or a water filtration plant
($6ndash8 billion Chichilnisky and Heal
1998) Te decision to invest in ldquonatural
capitalrdquo (in the orm o ecosystem resto-
ration) saved money and restored both
the ecosystem services o interest (water
purification and filtration) as well as
other services such as carbon storage
and opportunities or recreation noneo which would have been obtained
through building a new filtration plant
(Heal et al 2001)
Tere are several emerging scientific
efforts to enhance our understanding
o the benefits that humans obtain rom
ecosystems and to apply that knowledge
in decision making Te challenge o
determining measuring and communi-
cating the values o ecosystem services
is being addressed through efforts such
as the Natural Capital Project (http
wwwnaturalcapitalprojectorg) a part-
nership among Stanord University
Te Nature Conservancy and the
World Wildlie Fund to develop tools
or acilitating incorporation o natural
capital (ie valuation o ecosystem
services) into decision making Teir
first tool InVES (Integrated Valuation
o Ecosystem Services and radeoffs)
can model and map the delivery
distribution and economic value o
ecosystem services into the uture
InVES allows users to visualize the
impacts o their potential decisions
which enables identification o tradeoffs
among environmental economic and
social benefits Tis tool has already been
applied successully using stakeholder-
defined scenarios to predict changes in
land use and associated tradeoffs in the
Willamette Valley Oregon (Nelson et al
2009) Although InVES was initiallyocused on terrestrial ecosystems it
is now being applied to coastal and
marine ecosystems to provide maps and
projections o ecosystem services under
different management alternatives or
issues such as tradeoffs associated with
large-scale implementation o desalina-
tion plants in Caliornia (Ruckelshaus
and Guerry 2009) Marine InVES
offers a promising new approach or
incorporating scientific inormation
about ecosystem services into decision
making and resource management
Effective valuation o ecosystem
services requires acknowledging that
global social change and global envi-
ronmental change interact with one
another (Young et al 2006) When
acing decisions that affect ecosystem
services tradeoffs between social values
and environmental outcomes can either
be win-win win-lose or lose-lose and
the challenge is to develop solutions
that are winndashwin where both social and
environmental goals are achieved (allis
et al 2008) Increased emphasis should
be placed on incorporating social data
and projections o social distributional
effects into ecosystem services valuation
in order to determine and maximize
win-win outcomes (allis and Polasky
2009) and on obtaining basic inorma-tion about the undamental workings
o coupled human-natural systems
(Carpenter et al 2009a)
One major obstacle to ecosystem
services valuation is that detailed inor-
mation on how people benefit rom
specific services at scales useul or deci-
sion making is currently sparse (urner
and Daily 2008) In addition because
ecosystem services valuation is a rela-
tively new field o science there are ew
examples o ldquolessons learnedrdquo to inorm
new efforts Databases are a useul
tool or providing centralized publicly
accessible sources o inormation Te
Natural Capital Database (httpwww
naturalcapitalprojectorgdatabase
html) currently under development
will be a compilation o strategies and
outcomes rom conservation projects
that have ocused on ecosystem services
Tis inormation clearinghouse will
allow decision makers and managers to
learn lessons rom previous efforts that
they may be able to apply to their own
planning processes
ldquo
HE ACCELERAING PACE OF CHANGE PRESENS
DAUNING CHALLENGES FOR COMMUNIIES
BUSINESSES NAIONS AND HE GLOBAL COMMUNIY
O MAKE A RANSIION OWARD MORE
SUSAINABLE PRACICES AND POLICIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2120
COUPLED SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
Cultures
Institutions
Individuals
SOCIALDOMAIN
ECOLOGICALDOMAIN
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
LocalEcosystems
RegionalSeascapes
Large MarineEcosystems
UNDERSANDING COUPLED
SOCIAL983085NAURAL SYSEMS AS
COMPLEX ADAPIVE SYSEMS
Until recently studies o social systems
and o natural systems proceeded inde-
pendently o one another Novel inter-disciplinary approaches have recently
emerged or studying human and
natural systems as coupled systems (Liu
et al 2007 Berkes et al 2008 Ostrom
2009) Tese efforts seek to understand
the interconnectedness o people
and ecosystems the bases o decision
making and perceptions o risk equity
and scale (Figure 2 Ostrom et al 1999
Dasgupta et al 2000 Dietz et al 2003Kinzig et al 2003 McLeod and Leslie
2009a) Interdisciplinary approaches
will enable the changes in practices
and policies needed to use ecosystems
sustainably and to acilitate human well-
being (Figure 3)
Insights rom other scientific areas
are also inorming the understanding
o coupled human and natural systems
specifically the study o complex adap-
tive systems Tese systems are defined
by the act that dynamics o interac-
tions at small scales affect macroscopicsystem dynamics which then eed back
to impact the small scales (Levin 1998)
Across numerous types o complex
adaptive systems the same key eatures
appear necessary or a system to be
robust and resilient (ie to have the
capacity to absorb stresses and continue
unctioning Levin and Lubchenco
2008) modular structure redundancy
o modules diversity and heterogeneityo modules and tight eedback loops
(Levin 1999) radeoffs exist between
elements and thereore optimum resil-
ience may be obtained at intermediate
levels o these components (Levin 1999)
Evidence suggests that ecosystems
with higher diversity are more resilient
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
2005) Tis has been documented or
areas that are recovering rom species
loss as diversity increases valu-
able ecosystem services are restored
leading to higher resilience (Wormet al 2006) New interdisciplinary
efforts such as the Resilience Alliance
(httpwwwresallianceorg) and the
Forum on Science and Innovation or
Sustainable Development (httpwww
sustainabilityscienceorg) are actively
exploring the dynamics o socioeco-
logical systems in order to provide a
oundation or sustainability Tese
efforts acknowledge that the study oecosystem resilience is complex and
requires interdisciplinary tools creative
approaches (eg network analyses
Janssen et al 2006) and collaborations
(Schellnhuber et al 2004 Walker and
Salt 2006 Carpenter et al 2009b Leslie
and Kinzig 2009) New approaches
that would enhance the capacity o
management systems to adapt quickly
in response to changing condi-
tions would be beneficial (Carpenter
and Brock 2008)
Incorporating social sciences into
decision making and adaptive manage-
ment is an arena where significant new
advances have begun Te 2009 Nobel
Prize in Economics to Elinor Ostrom
explicitly recognizes the importance o
interdisciplinary approaches the key role
that institutions play and the multiple
scales o decision making relevant to
managing common-pool resources
(eg Ostrom 2009) Organization o
human institutions can have a large
impact on ecosystem resilience and
sustainability thereore participatory
processes that acilitate experimenta-
tion learning and change will benefit
Figure 2 Schematic of nested interactions between human and ecological systems (McLeod and Leslie
2009b) Social and ecological domains interact over multiple geographic and organizational scales
understanding connections across scales is critical to the long-term success of ecosystem-based manage-
ment efforts Ecosystem services represent a key connection between domains and the flow of services is
affected by both social and ecological factors Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 815
Oceanography Vol23 No2122
Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management (EBM)
EBM simply means taking a place-
based ecosystem approach to manage-
ment with the goal o sustaining the
long-term capacity o the system to
deliver ecosystem services (Rosenberg
and McLeod 2005) Doing so requires
synthesizing and applying knowledge
rom social and natural sciences
EBM is different rom traditional
approaches that usually ocus on a single
species sector activity or concern In
contrast EBM considers the cumula-
tive impacts o different sectors and
the connections between people and
ecosystems as well as the connections
among the different components o
the ecosystem (Figure 4) Although
many EBM concepts have been codi-
fied only recently (McLeod et al 2005)
they are actively employed in multiple
ecosystems around the world Recent
advances in understanding and prac-
ticing EBM are summarized in McLeod
and Leslie (2009a)
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)
MSP also called coastal and marine
spatial planning is an EBM tool or
minimizing conflicts among users
and reducing impacts on ecosystem
unctioning Increasing demands on
ocean space or diverse uses including
tourism recreation fishing shipping
national security oil and gas exploration
and wave and wind energy have led to
more and more conflicts among users
as well as additional impacts on already
stressed ocean ecosystems (United
Nations Environment Programme 2006
Douvere 2008) MSP is a process that
enables integrated orward-looking
decision making through an ecosystem-
based spatially explicit approach (Ehler
and Douvere 2007) Spatial planning has
been practiced on land or centuries as
humans have determined how to allocate
specific areas or multiple uses including
orestry conservation development
and agriculture
Te concept o zoning in the ocean
is a relatively new idea Te first
comprehensive MSP was developed
in the 1980s or the Great Barrier Ree
Marine Park in Australia Specific areas
are zoned or different uses including
fishing and tourism and other areas are
designated as ully protected helping to
minimize user conflicts and ecosystem
impacts (Douvere 2008) Because o
the interdependency o human and
natural systems the MSP process is most
successul when it involves broad partici-
pation by stakeholder groups scientists
and managers (Pomeroy and Douvere
2008) In addition to consideration o
human uses it is important or planners
to understand the biological communi-
ties and the key processes that maintain
them in order to create plans that maxi-
mize ecosystem resilience (Crowder
and Norse 2008)
Efforts are currently underway to
develop marine spatial plans or the
United States On December 14 2009
President Obamarsquos Interagency Ocean
Policy ask Force released an interim
ramework or effective coastal and
able 2 A shift in approaches to management is underway for coastal and marine ecosystems
Historical Approach New Approach
Short-term perspective Long-term and evolutionary perspectives
Single-sector focus Multi-sector focus
Natural science approach Coupled natural and social science approach
Single-species management Ecosystem-based management
Focus on delivery of products Focus on maintaining ecosystem resilience and delivery of ecosystem services
Greater use of fines Greater use of incentives
Regulation of effort Regulation of outcome
Command and control centralized top-down regulation op-down plus bottom-up decision making more local control
Reactive Anticipatory and precautionary
Static Adaptive
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Oceanography June 2010 123
EBM
GoalSustainable ecosystem
services andresilient ecosystems
TransportationManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient transport
accessible ports with links to land transport minimize
impacts on protectedspecies and habitat
EnergyManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient production
accessible to marketsminimize conicts
minimize habitat impacts
ScientifcAdvisory Body
Dynamicecosystem-wide
integrated assessment
FisheryManagement
Sector GoalsOptimize yield o target
species minimize bycatchreduce habitat impacts
maintain coastalcommunities
marine spatial planning wo weeks later
the Commonwealth o Massachusetts
became the first US state to release a
comprehensive ocean management plan
or its 1500-mile coastline (Figure 3a)
Other states and nations are pursuinguse o this tool as a vehicle or more
holistic management o ocean resources
and ecosystems
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)
and Reserves
MPAs provide a complementary tool
or protecting habitat biodiversity and
ecosystem unctioning (eg Halpern
et al in press) MPAs are areas o theocean that are managed or a conser-
vation benefit Tis tool provides an
ecosystem- and place-based approach to
management as opposed to a species-
based approach MPAs may be used
alone or as part o an MSP ramework
Fully protected (also called ldquono-takerdquo)
marine reserves are a type o MPA that
are completely protected rom all extrac-
tive and destructive activities (Lubchenco
et al 2003) Marine reserves currently
constitute lt 1 o the global ocean
(Wood et al 2008) Benefits o marine
reserves include habitat protection
biodiversity conservation enhancement
o ecosystem services recovery o over-
exploited stocks export o individuals
outside the reserve insurance against
environmental uncertainty and sites
or scientific research education and
recreation (Allison et al 1998) Scientific
analyses o the hundreds o no-take
marine reserves around the world
provide compelling evidence that they
do indeed protect biodiversity and habi-
tats (Gaines et al in press a) Density
diversity biomass and size o organisms
are higher inside reserves as opposed
to outside (Figure 5 Halpern 2003
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies
o Coastal Oceans 2007 Hamilton et al
in press) On average these benefits are
rapid (ofen occurring within one to
three years) and long-lasting (Halpernand Warner 2002) However not all
species respond rapidly and the rates at
which populations change depend on lie
histories and the availability o colonists
(Babcock et al in press) as well as social
actors (Pollnac et al in press)
Marine reserves provide a unique
mechanism or protecting large-bodied
individuals o fish and invertebrates
Large emales (otherwise known as ldquobig
old ecund emalesrdquo or BOFFs) have
much greater reproductive potential than
do smaller emales (Figure 6) and are
understood to be especially importantor sustaining populations Protection
o BOFFs may also help to counter the
negative evolutionary impacts o fishing
that result in reproduction at smaller
sizes (Baskett et al 2005) and in some
cases the distortion o size structure and
social structure or fish that are sequen-
tial hermaphrodites
Figure 4 Framing ecosystem-based management (EBM) goals across sectors (modi-
fied from Rosenberg and Sandifer 2009) Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2124
Average
BiomassN = 55
DensityN = 118
SizeN = 51
DiversityN = 39
P e r c e n t C h a n g e i n B i o l o g i c a l M
e a s u r e s
3000
2000
1000
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
446
2128
166
or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007) For example coastal
areas surrounding the Merritt Island
Florida reserve exhibited a rapid
increase in the number o world-record-
sized black drum red drum and spottedsea trout once the ully protected area
was established (Roberts et al 2001)
Reproduction within reserves
produces young that may be transported
by ocean currents outside the reserve
Tis ldquoexportrdquo o larvae is more difficult
to quantiy than ldquospilloverrdquo o juveniles
or adults but both processes transport
benefits rom inside a reserve to the
surrounding areas A network o marinereserves which is a set o reserves
separated by non-reserve waters but
connected by the movement o young
juveniles or adults can be designed to
maximize transport o benefits to the
outside (McCook et al in press Pelc
et al in press) Because o spillover
export and other benefits provided by
reserves optimal fisheries harvest occurs
when some areas o a region are tempo-
rarily or permanently closed (Costello
and Polasky 2008) Planning and imple-
mentation o marine reserve networks
are acilitated by access to biological and
socioeconomic inormation (Grorud-
Colvert et al in press Smith et al in
press) Te availability o high-quality
spatial inormation on the location
o fish populations allows or spatial
optimization in the implementation o
marine reserve networks that lead to
increased profit margins or surrounding
fisheries (Costello et al in press Gaines
et al in press b) For all o these reasons
no-take marine reserves and MPAs are
increasingly seen as useul tools in a
larger strategy to protect and restore
coastal and ocean ecosystems
Figure 5 Impact of no-take marine reserves on biomass density size and diver-
sity of species inside of a reserve Used with permission from the Partnership for
Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data from Lester et al (2009)
Figure 6 Relationship of number of young produced to body size of fish for vermillion rockfish A
23-inch vermillion rockfish produces 17 times more young than it did when it was 14 inches long
Used with permission from the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data fromLove et al (1990)
Productivity within marine reserves
also leads to ldquospilloverrdquomdashthe migra-
tion o animals rom inside the reserve
to the outsidemdashpotentially enhancing
commercial and recreational fisheries
surrounding the protected area or
contributing to recovery o depleted fish-
eries (Roberts et al 2001 Partnership
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 125
With ITQ
Without ITQ
Number of
ITQ Fisheries
Year
C
o l l a p s e d
I T
Q s I m p l e m e n t e d
0
10
20
30
100
75
50
25
0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Catch Shares
Catch shares provide an alternative
to traditional fishery management by
incorporating new understanding rom
social and economic sciences Instead
o individual commercial fishermenbeing incentivized by the ldquorace to fishrdquo
to outcompete others rights-based
fisheriesrsquo reorms offer an alternative
solution (Hilborn et al 2005) In lieu
o industry-wide quotas fishermen are
allocated individual quotas reerred
to as ldquocatch sharesrdquo o the total allow-
able catch and the goal is to provide
fishermen and communities with a
secure asset in order to create steward-ship incentives (Costello et al 2008)
Catch shares thus align economic and
conservation incentives Tey also hold
fishermen accountable or adhering
to the rules
Te concept o catch shares
pioneered in Australia New Zealand
and Iceland has now been implemented
or hundreds o fisheries throughout
the world Effectiveness o catch shares
was documented in a global analysis o
over 11000 fisheries Results indicated
that implementation o catch shares can
halt and even reverse trends toward
widespread fishery collapse (Figure 7
Costello et al 2008 Heal and Schlenker
2008) Tis evidence suggests that catch
shares offer a promising tool or sustain-
able fisheries management
o date 12 fisheries in the United
States have adopted this management
approach Te results have been impres-
sive sustainable fisheries improved
economic perormance o the fishery
decreased environmental impact and
increased saety at sea For example in
Alaskarsquos halibut (Figure 3c) and sablefish
fisheries the length o the fishing season
was extended rom less than a week to
eight months per year bycatch dropped
by 80 and saety improved sharply
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
In the Gul o Mexicorsquos red snapperfishery commercial overfishing ended
or the first time in decades fishermen
are receiving higher dockside prices
or their catch and reducing costs as
they are able to better plan their trips
and discards have decreased by 70
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
Catch shares are not necessarily suitable
or every fishery but they appear to holdpromise or many
Future Possible ools
Other tools seem ripe or development
but do not yet exist One is a nutrient-
trading scheme to decrease the flow o
excess nutrients rom agricultural and
livestock areas into coastal waters Dead
zones (areas o low oxygen) in coastal
oceans have spread exponentially since
the 1960s as a result o nutrient runoff
due to changes in agricultural and land-use practices dead zones now occur
over a total area o 245000 km2 (Diaz
and Rosenberg 2008) Fertilizer use in
the Mississippi River watershed which
drains 41 o the continental United
States leads to a severe seasonal dead
zone in the Gul o Mexico that extends
across 20000 km2 (Rabalais et al 2002)
One proposed approach or combating
excess nitrogen input might be the estab-lishment o cap-and-trade policy or
nitrogen where a limit would be set on
nitrogen input or each region (Socolow
1999) with regions able to trade quotas
A similar approach was successully used
by the Environmental Protection Agency
Figure 7 Percentage of fisheries collapsed (left y-axis) without (solid line) and with
(dotted line) catch share management using the Worm et al (2006) collapse threshold
of 10 of historical maximum (modified from Costello et al 2008) Individual trans-
ferable quotas (IQs) are a form of catch shares Te number of catch share fisheries
increases through time (right y-axis and dashed line) Used with permission from the
American Association for the Advancement of Science
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2126
under the Acid Rain Program to cap
emissions o sulur dioxide to reduce the
occurrence o acid rain Tis program
was so effective that sulur dioxide
reductions were achieved at significantly
lower costs and at much aster rates thanoriginally estimated
Another potentially useul tool would
involve better analytical methods or
detecting an approaching ecological
threshold or tipping point in time to
avert potential disaster (eg a fishery
collapse) Biggs et al (2009) provide
an example o such an early-warning
indicator Te lack o relevant long-term
data sets may present considerable chal-lenges in utilizing these tools thereore
efforts to urther develop them will need
to occur in parallel with (and should
inorm the development o) improved
monitoring efforts In addition the
utility o such indicators will rest upon
the adaptive capacity o management to
avert the shifmdashboth the ability o the
management regime to respond rapidly
and the ability to control the appropriate
drivers o change (Carpenter and Brock
2008 Biggs et al 2009)
None o the above tools offers a
panacea but each provides useul
approaches that build on existing
understanding rom both natural
and social sciences Maintaining the
suite o ecosystem services requires
protecting the unctioning o ecosys-
tems Integrated ecosystem assessments
that elucidate how the different social
and natural components interact provide
a decision-making ramework Place-based ecosystem-based and adaptive
management approaches are essential
New tools to acilitate understanding
o and decisions about tradeoffs will
be key In short effective management
o coastal and marine ecosystems will
require orward-thinking holistic and
ecosystem-based approaches that involve
users managers and scientific experts
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Continuing to educate and engage
citizens provide inormation to guide
decision making and develop and
implement new tools and approaches
based on the more holistic under-
standing described above will undoubt-
edly bring significant benefits For those
approaches to be maximally effective
additional inormation about ecosystem
and human patterns and processes
is needed such as basic patterns o
biodiversity understanding the scales
over which key ecosystem processes
operate socioeconomic inormation at
relevant scales methods or identiying
thresholds and approaches or designing
resilient institutions and manage-
ment structures Tis will also require
significant advances in ecosystem-
based science ecosystem services and
resilience rom a coupled humanndashnatural
system perspectiveIn addition inormation is not always
available at the relevant spatial scale or
management For example the majority
o climate change scenarios have been
developed or the global scale but most
o the impacts will be elt at local to
regional scales Tis mismatch o scales
makes it difficult or managers to incor-
porate climate inormation into their
planning processes Similarly effectivesustainable management o large-scale
resources (eg large marine ecosystems)
requires collaboration among interna-
tional national regional state and local
levels which creates challenges (Ostrom
et al 1999) Te need to address
problems at the local to regional scale
associated with shared global resources
is increasing Globalization is occur-
ring throughout many o our coupled
human-natural systems leading to
increased connectedness with both posi-
tive and negative results (Young et al
2006) A diversity o scales is necessary
or effective resilient management by
building on local and regional institu-
tions to ocus on global problems the
likelihood o success can be increased
(Ostrom et al 1999) Te ocus on
understanding impacts o climate change
on regions (US Global Change Research
Program 2009) is leading to increased
attention towards the ability o climate
models to resolve regional scales
Both climate change and ocean acidi-
fication are likely to transorm coastal
and ocean species ecosystems and
ecosystem services Priority should be
ldquoOUR FUURE DEPENDS UPON MAINAINING
HEALHY OCEAN AND COASAL ECOSYSEMS AND
HEALHY HUMAN COMMUNIIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 127
given to understanding the likely impacts
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion as well as ways to ameliorate those
impacts Given the rapid pace at which
ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by
doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict
the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)
Even though todayrsquos challenges are
already substantial climate change and
ocean acidification will interact with
and exacerbate the other drivers o
change Hence to be relevant and useul
management and policy must ocus on
tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural
systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-
sible Likely keys to success include the
ollowing approaches
bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such
as extinctions)
bull Managing or resilience
bull Managing with the expectation
o surprises
bull Creating flexible institutions with
capacity to adapt rapidly
bull Preserving as much biodiversity
(genetic species and habitat)
as possible
bull Developing rules o thumb or
managers in lieu o precise targets
bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors
over which there is more immediate
control
bull Sharing inormation and lessons via
learning networks
bull Investing effort in scientific research
to provide knowledge or the
above strategies
bull Supporting monitoring and
analysis to guide management and
policy decisions
In short these strategies all into two
categories (1) making better use o
existing inormation and (2) acquiring
new knowledge that would enhance
more sustainable practices and poli-
cies Incorporating climate change
and ocean acidification adaptation
strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way
to integrate a number o the above-
mentioned approaches
CONCLUDING REMARK S
Our uture depends upon maintaining
healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems
and healthy human communities Both
are in flux and each is coupled to the
other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide
a ocus or understanding policy and
management Awareness that natural
systems can undergo rapid change once
a tipping point is reached lends urgency
to the need or embracing novel tools
and approaches scaling up their use
and creating new knowledge inorma-
tion and tools
Global threats to our coastal
and marine ecosystems are rapidly
increasing We are currently operating
in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which
human activities have driven global
environmental change to a point that
has never beore been observed (Steffen
et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining
our natural resources are being depleted
and habitats are being destroyed Along
with these changes come the losses o
valuable ecosystem services on which
humans depend
In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-
tems social systems can also undergo
rapid change once a tipping point is
reached Knowledge that rapid soci-
etal shifs occur can provide hope
that successes in some places can be
quickly adopted and implemented Te
plethora o new advances and effective
tools successes at the local level and
engagement o citizens businesses and
scientists around the world provide
impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in
transitioning to more sustainable prac-
tices and policies
Priority actions include educating
citizens and policymakers about the
benefits o new approaches strength-
ening interdisciplinary approaches to
problem solving reducing the stres-
sors over which we have direct control
(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o
greenhouse gases to slow down the rates
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion protecting as much biodiversity as
possible and managing or ecosystem
resilience Holistic strategies or
engaging stakeholders and or preserving
or restoring ecosystem unctioning
and resilience are critical to success
Momentum is building inormed by
scientific advances and public involve-
ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo
ACKNOWLEDGEMENS
We would like to thank the National
Academies Ocean Studies Board
particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch
Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or
organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture
the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o
Natural History or hosting the event
and Senator John Kerry or providing
a dynamic introduction to the lecture
Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture
sponsors or their generous support
Logistical support rom Frank Parker
and figure design assistance rom Mike
Walker are also greatly appreciated
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
REFERENCESAllison GW J Lubchenco and MH Carr 1998
Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
or marine conservation Ecological Applications
8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
Resilience for Complexity and Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
UK 416 pp
Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
urning back rom the brink Detecting and
impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America 106826ndash831
Carpenter SR and WA Brock 2008 Adaptive
capacity and traps Ecology and Society 13(2)40
Carpenter SR and C Folke 2006 Ecology
or transormation rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or
managing ecosystem services Beyond the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 1061305ndash1312Carpenter SR C Folke M Scheffer and
F Westley 2009b Resilience Accounting or the
noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13
Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998
Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
harvesting o stochastic spatial resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 561ndash18
Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
Sea Change Report of the First International
Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3
UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)
Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
Letters 5361ndash366
Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands
marine reserve network Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
eries Nature 4551044ndash1045
Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
Series 38433ndash46
Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2120
COUPLED SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
Cultures
Institutions
Individuals
SOCIALDOMAIN
ECOLOGICALDOMAIN
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
LocalEcosystems
RegionalSeascapes
Large MarineEcosystems
UNDERSANDING COUPLED
SOCIAL983085NAURAL SYSEMS AS
COMPLEX ADAPIVE SYSEMS
Until recently studies o social systems
and o natural systems proceeded inde-
pendently o one another Novel inter-disciplinary approaches have recently
emerged or studying human and
natural systems as coupled systems (Liu
et al 2007 Berkes et al 2008 Ostrom
2009) Tese efforts seek to understand
the interconnectedness o people
and ecosystems the bases o decision
making and perceptions o risk equity
and scale (Figure 2 Ostrom et al 1999
Dasgupta et al 2000 Dietz et al 2003Kinzig et al 2003 McLeod and Leslie
2009a) Interdisciplinary approaches
will enable the changes in practices
and policies needed to use ecosystems
sustainably and to acilitate human well-
being (Figure 3)
Insights rom other scientific areas
are also inorming the understanding
o coupled human and natural systems
specifically the study o complex adap-
tive systems Tese systems are defined
by the act that dynamics o interac-
tions at small scales affect macroscopicsystem dynamics which then eed back
to impact the small scales (Levin 1998)
Across numerous types o complex
adaptive systems the same key eatures
appear necessary or a system to be
robust and resilient (ie to have the
capacity to absorb stresses and continue
unctioning Levin and Lubchenco
2008) modular structure redundancy
o modules diversity and heterogeneityo modules and tight eedback loops
(Levin 1999) radeoffs exist between
elements and thereore optimum resil-
ience may be obtained at intermediate
levels o these components (Levin 1999)
Evidence suggests that ecosystems
with higher diversity are more resilient
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
2005) Tis has been documented or
areas that are recovering rom species
loss as diversity increases valu-
able ecosystem services are restored
leading to higher resilience (Wormet al 2006) New interdisciplinary
efforts such as the Resilience Alliance
(httpwwwresallianceorg) and the
Forum on Science and Innovation or
Sustainable Development (httpwww
sustainabilityscienceorg) are actively
exploring the dynamics o socioeco-
logical systems in order to provide a
oundation or sustainability Tese
efforts acknowledge that the study oecosystem resilience is complex and
requires interdisciplinary tools creative
approaches (eg network analyses
Janssen et al 2006) and collaborations
(Schellnhuber et al 2004 Walker and
Salt 2006 Carpenter et al 2009b Leslie
and Kinzig 2009) New approaches
that would enhance the capacity o
management systems to adapt quickly
in response to changing condi-
tions would be beneficial (Carpenter
and Brock 2008)
Incorporating social sciences into
decision making and adaptive manage-
ment is an arena where significant new
advances have begun Te 2009 Nobel
Prize in Economics to Elinor Ostrom
explicitly recognizes the importance o
interdisciplinary approaches the key role
that institutions play and the multiple
scales o decision making relevant to
managing common-pool resources
(eg Ostrom 2009) Organization o
human institutions can have a large
impact on ecosystem resilience and
sustainability thereore participatory
processes that acilitate experimenta-
tion learning and change will benefit
Figure 2 Schematic of nested interactions between human and ecological systems (McLeod and Leslie
2009b) Social and ecological domains interact over multiple geographic and organizational scales
understanding connections across scales is critical to the long-term success of ecosystem-based manage-
ment efforts Ecosystem services represent a key connection between domains and the flow of services is
affected by both social and ecological factors Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 715
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 815
Oceanography Vol23 No2122
Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management (EBM)
EBM simply means taking a place-
based ecosystem approach to manage-
ment with the goal o sustaining the
long-term capacity o the system to
deliver ecosystem services (Rosenberg
and McLeod 2005) Doing so requires
synthesizing and applying knowledge
rom social and natural sciences
EBM is different rom traditional
approaches that usually ocus on a single
species sector activity or concern In
contrast EBM considers the cumula-
tive impacts o different sectors and
the connections between people and
ecosystems as well as the connections
among the different components o
the ecosystem (Figure 4) Although
many EBM concepts have been codi-
fied only recently (McLeod et al 2005)
they are actively employed in multiple
ecosystems around the world Recent
advances in understanding and prac-
ticing EBM are summarized in McLeod
and Leslie (2009a)
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)
MSP also called coastal and marine
spatial planning is an EBM tool or
minimizing conflicts among users
and reducing impacts on ecosystem
unctioning Increasing demands on
ocean space or diverse uses including
tourism recreation fishing shipping
national security oil and gas exploration
and wave and wind energy have led to
more and more conflicts among users
as well as additional impacts on already
stressed ocean ecosystems (United
Nations Environment Programme 2006
Douvere 2008) MSP is a process that
enables integrated orward-looking
decision making through an ecosystem-
based spatially explicit approach (Ehler
and Douvere 2007) Spatial planning has
been practiced on land or centuries as
humans have determined how to allocate
specific areas or multiple uses including
orestry conservation development
and agriculture
Te concept o zoning in the ocean
is a relatively new idea Te first
comprehensive MSP was developed
in the 1980s or the Great Barrier Ree
Marine Park in Australia Specific areas
are zoned or different uses including
fishing and tourism and other areas are
designated as ully protected helping to
minimize user conflicts and ecosystem
impacts (Douvere 2008) Because o
the interdependency o human and
natural systems the MSP process is most
successul when it involves broad partici-
pation by stakeholder groups scientists
and managers (Pomeroy and Douvere
2008) In addition to consideration o
human uses it is important or planners
to understand the biological communi-
ties and the key processes that maintain
them in order to create plans that maxi-
mize ecosystem resilience (Crowder
and Norse 2008)
Efforts are currently underway to
develop marine spatial plans or the
United States On December 14 2009
President Obamarsquos Interagency Ocean
Policy ask Force released an interim
ramework or effective coastal and
able 2 A shift in approaches to management is underway for coastal and marine ecosystems
Historical Approach New Approach
Short-term perspective Long-term and evolutionary perspectives
Single-sector focus Multi-sector focus
Natural science approach Coupled natural and social science approach
Single-species management Ecosystem-based management
Focus on delivery of products Focus on maintaining ecosystem resilience and delivery of ecosystem services
Greater use of fines Greater use of incentives
Regulation of effort Regulation of outcome
Command and control centralized top-down regulation op-down plus bottom-up decision making more local control
Reactive Anticipatory and precautionary
Static Adaptive
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 123
EBM
GoalSustainable ecosystem
services andresilient ecosystems
TransportationManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient transport
accessible ports with links to land transport minimize
impacts on protectedspecies and habitat
EnergyManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient production
accessible to marketsminimize conicts
minimize habitat impacts
ScientifcAdvisory Body
Dynamicecosystem-wide
integrated assessment
FisheryManagement
Sector GoalsOptimize yield o target
species minimize bycatchreduce habitat impacts
maintain coastalcommunities
marine spatial planning wo weeks later
the Commonwealth o Massachusetts
became the first US state to release a
comprehensive ocean management plan
or its 1500-mile coastline (Figure 3a)
Other states and nations are pursuinguse o this tool as a vehicle or more
holistic management o ocean resources
and ecosystems
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)
and Reserves
MPAs provide a complementary tool
or protecting habitat biodiversity and
ecosystem unctioning (eg Halpern
et al in press) MPAs are areas o theocean that are managed or a conser-
vation benefit Tis tool provides an
ecosystem- and place-based approach to
management as opposed to a species-
based approach MPAs may be used
alone or as part o an MSP ramework
Fully protected (also called ldquono-takerdquo)
marine reserves are a type o MPA that
are completely protected rom all extrac-
tive and destructive activities (Lubchenco
et al 2003) Marine reserves currently
constitute lt 1 o the global ocean
(Wood et al 2008) Benefits o marine
reserves include habitat protection
biodiversity conservation enhancement
o ecosystem services recovery o over-
exploited stocks export o individuals
outside the reserve insurance against
environmental uncertainty and sites
or scientific research education and
recreation (Allison et al 1998) Scientific
analyses o the hundreds o no-take
marine reserves around the world
provide compelling evidence that they
do indeed protect biodiversity and habi-
tats (Gaines et al in press a) Density
diversity biomass and size o organisms
are higher inside reserves as opposed
to outside (Figure 5 Halpern 2003
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies
o Coastal Oceans 2007 Hamilton et al
in press) On average these benefits are
rapid (ofen occurring within one to
three years) and long-lasting (Halpernand Warner 2002) However not all
species respond rapidly and the rates at
which populations change depend on lie
histories and the availability o colonists
(Babcock et al in press) as well as social
actors (Pollnac et al in press)
Marine reserves provide a unique
mechanism or protecting large-bodied
individuals o fish and invertebrates
Large emales (otherwise known as ldquobig
old ecund emalesrdquo or BOFFs) have
much greater reproductive potential than
do smaller emales (Figure 6) and are
understood to be especially importantor sustaining populations Protection
o BOFFs may also help to counter the
negative evolutionary impacts o fishing
that result in reproduction at smaller
sizes (Baskett et al 2005) and in some
cases the distortion o size structure and
social structure or fish that are sequen-
tial hermaphrodites
Figure 4 Framing ecosystem-based management (EBM) goals across sectors (modi-
fied from Rosenberg and Sandifer 2009) Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1015
Oceanography Vol23 No2124
Average
BiomassN = 55
DensityN = 118
SizeN = 51
DiversityN = 39
P e r c e n t C h a n g e i n B i o l o g i c a l M
e a s u r e s
3000
2000
1000
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
446
2128
166
or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007) For example coastal
areas surrounding the Merritt Island
Florida reserve exhibited a rapid
increase in the number o world-record-
sized black drum red drum and spottedsea trout once the ully protected area
was established (Roberts et al 2001)
Reproduction within reserves
produces young that may be transported
by ocean currents outside the reserve
Tis ldquoexportrdquo o larvae is more difficult
to quantiy than ldquospilloverrdquo o juveniles
or adults but both processes transport
benefits rom inside a reserve to the
surrounding areas A network o marinereserves which is a set o reserves
separated by non-reserve waters but
connected by the movement o young
juveniles or adults can be designed to
maximize transport o benefits to the
outside (McCook et al in press Pelc
et al in press) Because o spillover
export and other benefits provided by
reserves optimal fisheries harvest occurs
when some areas o a region are tempo-
rarily or permanently closed (Costello
and Polasky 2008) Planning and imple-
mentation o marine reserve networks
are acilitated by access to biological and
socioeconomic inormation (Grorud-
Colvert et al in press Smith et al in
press) Te availability o high-quality
spatial inormation on the location
o fish populations allows or spatial
optimization in the implementation o
marine reserve networks that lead to
increased profit margins or surrounding
fisheries (Costello et al in press Gaines
et al in press b) For all o these reasons
no-take marine reserves and MPAs are
increasingly seen as useul tools in a
larger strategy to protect and restore
coastal and ocean ecosystems
Figure 5 Impact of no-take marine reserves on biomass density size and diver-
sity of species inside of a reserve Used with permission from the Partnership for
Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data from Lester et al (2009)
Figure 6 Relationship of number of young produced to body size of fish for vermillion rockfish A
23-inch vermillion rockfish produces 17 times more young than it did when it was 14 inches long
Used with permission from the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data fromLove et al (1990)
Productivity within marine reserves
also leads to ldquospilloverrdquomdashthe migra-
tion o animals rom inside the reserve
to the outsidemdashpotentially enhancing
commercial and recreational fisheries
surrounding the protected area or
contributing to recovery o depleted fish-
eries (Roberts et al 2001 Partnership
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 125
With ITQ
Without ITQ
Number of
ITQ Fisheries
Year
C
o l l a p s e d
I T
Q s I m p l e m e n t e d
0
10
20
30
100
75
50
25
0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Catch Shares
Catch shares provide an alternative
to traditional fishery management by
incorporating new understanding rom
social and economic sciences Instead
o individual commercial fishermenbeing incentivized by the ldquorace to fishrdquo
to outcompete others rights-based
fisheriesrsquo reorms offer an alternative
solution (Hilborn et al 2005) In lieu
o industry-wide quotas fishermen are
allocated individual quotas reerred
to as ldquocatch sharesrdquo o the total allow-
able catch and the goal is to provide
fishermen and communities with a
secure asset in order to create steward-ship incentives (Costello et al 2008)
Catch shares thus align economic and
conservation incentives Tey also hold
fishermen accountable or adhering
to the rules
Te concept o catch shares
pioneered in Australia New Zealand
and Iceland has now been implemented
or hundreds o fisheries throughout
the world Effectiveness o catch shares
was documented in a global analysis o
over 11000 fisheries Results indicated
that implementation o catch shares can
halt and even reverse trends toward
widespread fishery collapse (Figure 7
Costello et al 2008 Heal and Schlenker
2008) Tis evidence suggests that catch
shares offer a promising tool or sustain-
able fisheries management
o date 12 fisheries in the United
States have adopted this management
approach Te results have been impres-
sive sustainable fisheries improved
economic perormance o the fishery
decreased environmental impact and
increased saety at sea For example in
Alaskarsquos halibut (Figure 3c) and sablefish
fisheries the length o the fishing season
was extended rom less than a week to
eight months per year bycatch dropped
by 80 and saety improved sharply
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
In the Gul o Mexicorsquos red snapperfishery commercial overfishing ended
or the first time in decades fishermen
are receiving higher dockside prices
or their catch and reducing costs as
they are able to better plan their trips
and discards have decreased by 70
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
Catch shares are not necessarily suitable
or every fishery but they appear to holdpromise or many
Future Possible ools
Other tools seem ripe or development
but do not yet exist One is a nutrient-
trading scheme to decrease the flow o
excess nutrients rom agricultural and
livestock areas into coastal waters Dead
zones (areas o low oxygen) in coastal
oceans have spread exponentially since
the 1960s as a result o nutrient runoff
due to changes in agricultural and land-use practices dead zones now occur
over a total area o 245000 km2 (Diaz
and Rosenberg 2008) Fertilizer use in
the Mississippi River watershed which
drains 41 o the continental United
States leads to a severe seasonal dead
zone in the Gul o Mexico that extends
across 20000 km2 (Rabalais et al 2002)
One proposed approach or combating
excess nitrogen input might be the estab-lishment o cap-and-trade policy or
nitrogen where a limit would be set on
nitrogen input or each region (Socolow
1999) with regions able to trade quotas
A similar approach was successully used
by the Environmental Protection Agency
Figure 7 Percentage of fisheries collapsed (left y-axis) without (solid line) and with
(dotted line) catch share management using the Worm et al (2006) collapse threshold
of 10 of historical maximum (modified from Costello et al 2008) Individual trans-
ferable quotas (IQs) are a form of catch shares Te number of catch share fisheries
increases through time (right y-axis and dashed line) Used with permission from the
American Association for the Advancement of Science
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1215
Oceanography Vol23 No2126
under the Acid Rain Program to cap
emissions o sulur dioxide to reduce the
occurrence o acid rain Tis program
was so effective that sulur dioxide
reductions were achieved at significantly
lower costs and at much aster rates thanoriginally estimated
Another potentially useul tool would
involve better analytical methods or
detecting an approaching ecological
threshold or tipping point in time to
avert potential disaster (eg a fishery
collapse) Biggs et al (2009) provide
an example o such an early-warning
indicator Te lack o relevant long-term
data sets may present considerable chal-lenges in utilizing these tools thereore
efforts to urther develop them will need
to occur in parallel with (and should
inorm the development o) improved
monitoring efforts In addition the
utility o such indicators will rest upon
the adaptive capacity o management to
avert the shifmdashboth the ability o the
management regime to respond rapidly
and the ability to control the appropriate
drivers o change (Carpenter and Brock
2008 Biggs et al 2009)
None o the above tools offers a
panacea but each provides useul
approaches that build on existing
understanding rom both natural
and social sciences Maintaining the
suite o ecosystem services requires
protecting the unctioning o ecosys-
tems Integrated ecosystem assessments
that elucidate how the different social
and natural components interact provide
a decision-making ramework Place-based ecosystem-based and adaptive
management approaches are essential
New tools to acilitate understanding
o and decisions about tradeoffs will
be key In short effective management
o coastal and marine ecosystems will
require orward-thinking holistic and
ecosystem-based approaches that involve
users managers and scientific experts
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Continuing to educate and engage
citizens provide inormation to guide
decision making and develop and
implement new tools and approaches
based on the more holistic under-
standing described above will undoubt-
edly bring significant benefits For those
approaches to be maximally effective
additional inormation about ecosystem
and human patterns and processes
is needed such as basic patterns o
biodiversity understanding the scales
over which key ecosystem processes
operate socioeconomic inormation at
relevant scales methods or identiying
thresholds and approaches or designing
resilient institutions and manage-
ment structures Tis will also require
significant advances in ecosystem-
based science ecosystem services and
resilience rom a coupled humanndashnatural
system perspectiveIn addition inormation is not always
available at the relevant spatial scale or
management For example the majority
o climate change scenarios have been
developed or the global scale but most
o the impacts will be elt at local to
regional scales Tis mismatch o scales
makes it difficult or managers to incor-
porate climate inormation into their
planning processes Similarly effectivesustainable management o large-scale
resources (eg large marine ecosystems)
requires collaboration among interna-
tional national regional state and local
levels which creates challenges (Ostrom
et al 1999) Te need to address
problems at the local to regional scale
associated with shared global resources
is increasing Globalization is occur-
ring throughout many o our coupled
human-natural systems leading to
increased connectedness with both posi-
tive and negative results (Young et al
2006) A diversity o scales is necessary
or effective resilient management by
building on local and regional institu-
tions to ocus on global problems the
likelihood o success can be increased
(Ostrom et al 1999) Te ocus on
understanding impacts o climate change
on regions (US Global Change Research
Program 2009) is leading to increased
attention towards the ability o climate
models to resolve regional scales
Both climate change and ocean acidi-
fication are likely to transorm coastal
and ocean species ecosystems and
ecosystem services Priority should be
ldquoOUR FUURE DEPENDS UPON MAINAINING
HEALHY OCEAN AND COASAL ECOSYSEMS AND
HEALHY HUMAN COMMUNIIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1315
Oceanography June 2010 127
given to understanding the likely impacts
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion as well as ways to ameliorate those
impacts Given the rapid pace at which
ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by
doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict
the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)
Even though todayrsquos challenges are
already substantial climate change and
ocean acidification will interact with
and exacerbate the other drivers o
change Hence to be relevant and useul
management and policy must ocus on
tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural
systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-
sible Likely keys to success include the
ollowing approaches
bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such
as extinctions)
bull Managing or resilience
bull Managing with the expectation
o surprises
bull Creating flexible institutions with
capacity to adapt rapidly
bull Preserving as much biodiversity
(genetic species and habitat)
as possible
bull Developing rules o thumb or
managers in lieu o precise targets
bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors
over which there is more immediate
control
bull Sharing inormation and lessons via
learning networks
bull Investing effort in scientific research
to provide knowledge or the
above strategies
bull Supporting monitoring and
analysis to guide management and
policy decisions
In short these strategies all into two
categories (1) making better use o
existing inormation and (2) acquiring
new knowledge that would enhance
more sustainable practices and poli-
cies Incorporating climate change
and ocean acidification adaptation
strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way
to integrate a number o the above-
mentioned approaches
CONCLUDING REMARK S
Our uture depends upon maintaining
healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems
and healthy human communities Both
are in flux and each is coupled to the
other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide
a ocus or understanding policy and
management Awareness that natural
systems can undergo rapid change once
a tipping point is reached lends urgency
to the need or embracing novel tools
and approaches scaling up their use
and creating new knowledge inorma-
tion and tools
Global threats to our coastal
and marine ecosystems are rapidly
increasing We are currently operating
in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which
human activities have driven global
environmental change to a point that
has never beore been observed (Steffen
et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining
our natural resources are being depleted
and habitats are being destroyed Along
with these changes come the losses o
valuable ecosystem services on which
humans depend
In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-
tems social systems can also undergo
rapid change once a tipping point is
reached Knowledge that rapid soci-
etal shifs occur can provide hope
that successes in some places can be
quickly adopted and implemented Te
plethora o new advances and effective
tools successes at the local level and
engagement o citizens businesses and
scientists around the world provide
impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in
transitioning to more sustainable prac-
tices and policies
Priority actions include educating
citizens and policymakers about the
benefits o new approaches strength-
ening interdisciplinary approaches to
problem solving reducing the stres-
sors over which we have direct control
(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o
greenhouse gases to slow down the rates
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion protecting as much biodiversity as
possible and managing or ecosystem
resilience Holistic strategies or
engaging stakeholders and or preserving
or restoring ecosystem unctioning
and resilience are critical to success
Momentum is building inormed by
scientific advances and public involve-
ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo
ACKNOWLEDGEMENS
We would like to thank the National
Academies Ocean Studies Board
particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch
Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or
organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture
the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o
Natural History or hosting the event
and Senator John Kerry or providing
a dynamic introduction to the lecture
Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture
sponsors or their generous support
Logistical support rom Frank Parker
and figure design assistance rom Mike
Walker are also greatly appreciated
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
REFERENCESAllison GW J Lubchenco and MH Carr 1998
Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
or marine conservation Ecological Applications
8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
Resilience for Complexity and Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
UK 416 pp
Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
urning back rom the brink Detecting and
impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America 106826ndash831
Carpenter SR and WA Brock 2008 Adaptive
capacity and traps Ecology and Society 13(2)40
Carpenter SR and C Folke 2006 Ecology
or transormation rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or
managing ecosystem services Beyond the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 1061305ndash1312Carpenter SR C Folke M Scheffer and
F Westley 2009b Resilience Accounting or the
noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13
Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998
Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
harvesting o stochastic spatial resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 561ndash18
Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
Sea Change Report of the First International
Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3
UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)
Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
Letters 5361ndash366
Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands
marine reserve network Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
eries Nature 4551044ndash1045
Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
Series 38433ndash46
Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 715
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 815
Oceanography Vol23 No2122
Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management (EBM)
EBM simply means taking a place-
based ecosystem approach to manage-
ment with the goal o sustaining the
long-term capacity o the system to
deliver ecosystem services (Rosenberg
and McLeod 2005) Doing so requires
synthesizing and applying knowledge
rom social and natural sciences
EBM is different rom traditional
approaches that usually ocus on a single
species sector activity or concern In
contrast EBM considers the cumula-
tive impacts o different sectors and
the connections between people and
ecosystems as well as the connections
among the different components o
the ecosystem (Figure 4) Although
many EBM concepts have been codi-
fied only recently (McLeod et al 2005)
they are actively employed in multiple
ecosystems around the world Recent
advances in understanding and prac-
ticing EBM are summarized in McLeod
and Leslie (2009a)
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)
MSP also called coastal and marine
spatial planning is an EBM tool or
minimizing conflicts among users
and reducing impacts on ecosystem
unctioning Increasing demands on
ocean space or diverse uses including
tourism recreation fishing shipping
national security oil and gas exploration
and wave and wind energy have led to
more and more conflicts among users
as well as additional impacts on already
stressed ocean ecosystems (United
Nations Environment Programme 2006
Douvere 2008) MSP is a process that
enables integrated orward-looking
decision making through an ecosystem-
based spatially explicit approach (Ehler
and Douvere 2007) Spatial planning has
been practiced on land or centuries as
humans have determined how to allocate
specific areas or multiple uses including
orestry conservation development
and agriculture
Te concept o zoning in the ocean
is a relatively new idea Te first
comprehensive MSP was developed
in the 1980s or the Great Barrier Ree
Marine Park in Australia Specific areas
are zoned or different uses including
fishing and tourism and other areas are
designated as ully protected helping to
minimize user conflicts and ecosystem
impacts (Douvere 2008) Because o
the interdependency o human and
natural systems the MSP process is most
successul when it involves broad partici-
pation by stakeholder groups scientists
and managers (Pomeroy and Douvere
2008) In addition to consideration o
human uses it is important or planners
to understand the biological communi-
ties and the key processes that maintain
them in order to create plans that maxi-
mize ecosystem resilience (Crowder
and Norse 2008)
Efforts are currently underway to
develop marine spatial plans or the
United States On December 14 2009
President Obamarsquos Interagency Ocean
Policy ask Force released an interim
ramework or effective coastal and
able 2 A shift in approaches to management is underway for coastal and marine ecosystems
Historical Approach New Approach
Short-term perspective Long-term and evolutionary perspectives
Single-sector focus Multi-sector focus
Natural science approach Coupled natural and social science approach
Single-species management Ecosystem-based management
Focus on delivery of products Focus on maintaining ecosystem resilience and delivery of ecosystem services
Greater use of fines Greater use of incentives
Regulation of effort Regulation of outcome
Command and control centralized top-down regulation op-down plus bottom-up decision making more local control
Reactive Anticipatory and precautionary
Static Adaptive
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 123
EBM
GoalSustainable ecosystem
services andresilient ecosystems
TransportationManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient transport
accessible ports with links to land transport minimize
impacts on protectedspecies and habitat
EnergyManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient production
accessible to marketsminimize conicts
minimize habitat impacts
ScientifcAdvisory Body
Dynamicecosystem-wide
integrated assessment
FisheryManagement
Sector GoalsOptimize yield o target
species minimize bycatchreduce habitat impacts
maintain coastalcommunities
marine spatial planning wo weeks later
the Commonwealth o Massachusetts
became the first US state to release a
comprehensive ocean management plan
or its 1500-mile coastline (Figure 3a)
Other states and nations are pursuinguse o this tool as a vehicle or more
holistic management o ocean resources
and ecosystems
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)
and Reserves
MPAs provide a complementary tool
or protecting habitat biodiversity and
ecosystem unctioning (eg Halpern
et al in press) MPAs are areas o theocean that are managed or a conser-
vation benefit Tis tool provides an
ecosystem- and place-based approach to
management as opposed to a species-
based approach MPAs may be used
alone or as part o an MSP ramework
Fully protected (also called ldquono-takerdquo)
marine reserves are a type o MPA that
are completely protected rom all extrac-
tive and destructive activities (Lubchenco
et al 2003) Marine reserves currently
constitute lt 1 o the global ocean
(Wood et al 2008) Benefits o marine
reserves include habitat protection
biodiversity conservation enhancement
o ecosystem services recovery o over-
exploited stocks export o individuals
outside the reserve insurance against
environmental uncertainty and sites
or scientific research education and
recreation (Allison et al 1998) Scientific
analyses o the hundreds o no-take
marine reserves around the world
provide compelling evidence that they
do indeed protect biodiversity and habi-
tats (Gaines et al in press a) Density
diversity biomass and size o organisms
are higher inside reserves as opposed
to outside (Figure 5 Halpern 2003
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies
o Coastal Oceans 2007 Hamilton et al
in press) On average these benefits are
rapid (ofen occurring within one to
three years) and long-lasting (Halpernand Warner 2002) However not all
species respond rapidly and the rates at
which populations change depend on lie
histories and the availability o colonists
(Babcock et al in press) as well as social
actors (Pollnac et al in press)
Marine reserves provide a unique
mechanism or protecting large-bodied
individuals o fish and invertebrates
Large emales (otherwise known as ldquobig
old ecund emalesrdquo or BOFFs) have
much greater reproductive potential than
do smaller emales (Figure 6) and are
understood to be especially importantor sustaining populations Protection
o BOFFs may also help to counter the
negative evolutionary impacts o fishing
that result in reproduction at smaller
sizes (Baskett et al 2005) and in some
cases the distortion o size structure and
social structure or fish that are sequen-
tial hermaphrodites
Figure 4 Framing ecosystem-based management (EBM) goals across sectors (modi-
fied from Rosenberg and Sandifer 2009) Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2124
Average
BiomassN = 55
DensityN = 118
SizeN = 51
DiversityN = 39
P e r c e n t C h a n g e i n B i o l o g i c a l M
e a s u r e s
3000
2000
1000
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
446
2128
166
or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007) For example coastal
areas surrounding the Merritt Island
Florida reserve exhibited a rapid
increase in the number o world-record-
sized black drum red drum and spottedsea trout once the ully protected area
was established (Roberts et al 2001)
Reproduction within reserves
produces young that may be transported
by ocean currents outside the reserve
Tis ldquoexportrdquo o larvae is more difficult
to quantiy than ldquospilloverrdquo o juveniles
or adults but both processes transport
benefits rom inside a reserve to the
surrounding areas A network o marinereserves which is a set o reserves
separated by non-reserve waters but
connected by the movement o young
juveniles or adults can be designed to
maximize transport o benefits to the
outside (McCook et al in press Pelc
et al in press) Because o spillover
export and other benefits provided by
reserves optimal fisheries harvest occurs
when some areas o a region are tempo-
rarily or permanently closed (Costello
and Polasky 2008) Planning and imple-
mentation o marine reserve networks
are acilitated by access to biological and
socioeconomic inormation (Grorud-
Colvert et al in press Smith et al in
press) Te availability o high-quality
spatial inormation on the location
o fish populations allows or spatial
optimization in the implementation o
marine reserve networks that lead to
increased profit margins or surrounding
fisheries (Costello et al in press Gaines
et al in press b) For all o these reasons
no-take marine reserves and MPAs are
increasingly seen as useul tools in a
larger strategy to protect and restore
coastal and ocean ecosystems
Figure 5 Impact of no-take marine reserves on biomass density size and diver-
sity of species inside of a reserve Used with permission from the Partnership for
Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data from Lester et al (2009)
Figure 6 Relationship of number of young produced to body size of fish for vermillion rockfish A
23-inch vermillion rockfish produces 17 times more young than it did when it was 14 inches long
Used with permission from the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data fromLove et al (1990)
Productivity within marine reserves
also leads to ldquospilloverrdquomdashthe migra-
tion o animals rom inside the reserve
to the outsidemdashpotentially enhancing
commercial and recreational fisheries
surrounding the protected area or
contributing to recovery o depleted fish-
eries (Roberts et al 2001 Partnership
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 125
With ITQ
Without ITQ
Number of
ITQ Fisheries
Year
C
o l l a p s e d
I T
Q s I m p l e m e n t e d
0
10
20
30
100
75
50
25
0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Catch Shares
Catch shares provide an alternative
to traditional fishery management by
incorporating new understanding rom
social and economic sciences Instead
o individual commercial fishermenbeing incentivized by the ldquorace to fishrdquo
to outcompete others rights-based
fisheriesrsquo reorms offer an alternative
solution (Hilborn et al 2005) In lieu
o industry-wide quotas fishermen are
allocated individual quotas reerred
to as ldquocatch sharesrdquo o the total allow-
able catch and the goal is to provide
fishermen and communities with a
secure asset in order to create steward-ship incentives (Costello et al 2008)
Catch shares thus align economic and
conservation incentives Tey also hold
fishermen accountable or adhering
to the rules
Te concept o catch shares
pioneered in Australia New Zealand
and Iceland has now been implemented
or hundreds o fisheries throughout
the world Effectiveness o catch shares
was documented in a global analysis o
over 11000 fisheries Results indicated
that implementation o catch shares can
halt and even reverse trends toward
widespread fishery collapse (Figure 7
Costello et al 2008 Heal and Schlenker
2008) Tis evidence suggests that catch
shares offer a promising tool or sustain-
able fisheries management
o date 12 fisheries in the United
States have adopted this management
approach Te results have been impres-
sive sustainable fisheries improved
economic perormance o the fishery
decreased environmental impact and
increased saety at sea For example in
Alaskarsquos halibut (Figure 3c) and sablefish
fisheries the length o the fishing season
was extended rom less than a week to
eight months per year bycatch dropped
by 80 and saety improved sharply
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
In the Gul o Mexicorsquos red snapperfishery commercial overfishing ended
or the first time in decades fishermen
are receiving higher dockside prices
or their catch and reducing costs as
they are able to better plan their trips
and discards have decreased by 70
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
Catch shares are not necessarily suitable
or every fishery but they appear to holdpromise or many
Future Possible ools
Other tools seem ripe or development
but do not yet exist One is a nutrient-
trading scheme to decrease the flow o
excess nutrients rom agricultural and
livestock areas into coastal waters Dead
zones (areas o low oxygen) in coastal
oceans have spread exponentially since
the 1960s as a result o nutrient runoff
due to changes in agricultural and land-use practices dead zones now occur
over a total area o 245000 km2 (Diaz
and Rosenberg 2008) Fertilizer use in
the Mississippi River watershed which
drains 41 o the continental United
States leads to a severe seasonal dead
zone in the Gul o Mexico that extends
across 20000 km2 (Rabalais et al 2002)
One proposed approach or combating
excess nitrogen input might be the estab-lishment o cap-and-trade policy or
nitrogen where a limit would be set on
nitrogen input or each region (Socolow
1999) with regions able to trade quotas
A similar approach was successully used
by the Environmental Protection Agency
Figure 7 Percentage of fisheries collapsed (left y-axis) without (solid line) and with
(dotted line) catch share management using the Worm et al (2006) collapse threshold
of 10 of historical maximum (modified from Costello et al 2008) Individual trans-
ferable quotas (IQs) are a form of catch shares Te number of catch share fisheries
increases through time (right y-axis and dashed line) Used with permission from the
American Association for the Advancement of Science
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1215
Oceanography Vol23 No2126
under the Acid Rain Program to cap
emissions o sulur dioxide to reduce the
occurrence o acid rain Tis program
was so effective that sulur dioxide
reductions were achieved at significantly
lower costs and at much aster rates thanoriginally estimated
Another potentially useul tool would
involve better analytical methods or
detecting an approaching ecological
threshold or tipping point in time to
avert potential disaster (eg a fishery
collapse) Biggs et al (2009) provide
an example o such an early-warning
indicator Te lack o relevant long-term
data sets may present considerable chal-lenges in utilizing these tools thereore
efforts to urther develop them will need
to occur in parallel with (and should
inorm the development o) improved
monitoring efforts In addition the
utility o such indicators will rest upon
the adaptive capacity o management to
avert the shifmdashboth the ability o the
management regime to respond rapidly
and the ability to control the appropriate
drivers o change (Carpenter and Brock
2008 Biggs et al 2009)
None o the above tools offers a
panacea but each provides useul
approaches that build on existing
understanding rom both natural
and social sciences Maintaining the
suite o ecosystem services requires
protecting the unctioning o ecosys-
tems Integrated ecosystem assessments
that elucidate how the different social
and natural components interact provide
a decision-making ramework Place-based ecosystem-based and adaptive
management approaches are essential
New tools to acilitate understanding
o and decisions about tradeoffs will
be key In short effective management
o coastal and marine ecosystems will
require orward-thinking holistic and
ecosystem-based approaches that involve
users managers and scientific experts
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Continuing to educate and engage
citizens provide inormation to guide
decision making and develop and
implement new tools and approaches
based on the more holistic under-
standing described above will undoubt-
edly bring significant benefits For those
approaches to be maximally effective
additional inormation about ecosystem
and human patterns and processes
is needed such as basic patterns o
biodiversity understanding the scales
over which key ecosystem processes
operate socioeconomic inormation at
relevant scales methods or identiying
thresholds and approaches or designing
resilient institutions and manage-
ment structures Tis will also require
significant advances in ecosystem-
based science ecosystem services and
resilience rom a coupled humanndashnatural
system perspectiveIn addition inormation is not always
available at the relevant spatial scale or
management For example the majority
o climate change scenarios have been
developed or the global scale but most
o the impacts will be elt at local to
regional scales Tis mismatch o scales
makes it difficult or managers to incor-
porate climate inormation into their
planning processes Similarly effectivesustainable management o large-scale
resources (eg large marine ecosystems)
requires collaboration among interna-
tional national regional state and local
levels which creates challenges (Ostrom
et al 1999) Te need to address
problems at the local to regional scale
associated with shared global resources
is increasing Globalization is occur-
ring throughout many o our coupled
human-natural systems leading to
increased connectedness with both posi-
tive and negative results (Young et al
2006) A diversity o scales is necessary
or effective resilient management by
building on local and regional institu-
tions to ocus on global problems the
likelihood o success can be increased
(Ostrom et al 1999) Te ocus on
understanding impacts o climate change
on regions (US Global Change Research
Program 2009) is leading to increased
attention towards the ability o climate
models to resolve regional scales
Both climate change and ocean acidi-
fication are likely to transorm coastal
and ocean species ecosystems and
ecosystem services Priority should be
ldquoOUR FUURE DEPENDS UPON MAINAINING
HEALHY OCEAN AND COASAL ECOSYSEMS AND
HEALHY HUMAN COMMUNIIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1315
Oceanography June 2010 127
given to understanding the likely impacts
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion as well as ways to ameliorate those
impacts Given the rapid pace at which
ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by
doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict
the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)
Even though todayrsquos challenges are
already substantial climate change and
ocean acidification will interact with
and exacerbate the other drivers o
change Hence to be relevant and useul
management and policy must ocus on
tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural
systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-
sible Likely keys to success include the
ollowing approaches
bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such
as extinctions)
bull Managing or resilience
bull Managing with the expectation
o surprises
bull Creating flexible institutions with
capacity to adapt rapidly
bull Preserving as much biodiversity
(genetic species and habitat)
as possible
bull Developing rules o thumb or
managers in lieu o precise targets
bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors
over which there is more immediate
control
bull Sharing inormation and lessons via
learning networks
bull Investing effort in scientific research
to provide knowledge or the
above strategies
bull Supporting monitoring and
analysis to guide management and
policy decisions
In short these strategies all into two
categories (1) making better use o
existing inormation and (2) acquiring
new knowledge that would enhance
more sustainable practices and poli-
cies Incorporating climate change
and ocean acidification adaptation
strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way
to integrate a number o the above-
mentioned approaches
CONCLUDING REMARK S
Our uture depends upon maintaining
healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems
and healthy human communities Both
are in flux and each is coupled to the
other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide
a ocus or understanding policy and
management Awareness that natural
systems can undergo rapid change once
a tipping point is reached lends urgency
to the need or embracing novel tools
and approaches scaling up their use
and creating new knowledge inorma-
tion and tools
Global threats to our coastal
and marine ecosystems are rapidly
increasing We are currently operating
in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which
human activities have driven global
environmental change to a point that
has never beore been observed (Steffen
et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining
our natural resources are being depleted
and habitats are being destroyed Along
with these changes come the losses o
valuable ecosystem services on which
humans depend
In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-
tems social systems can also undergo
rapid change once a tipping point is
reached Knowledge that rapid soci-
etal shifs occur can provide hope
that successes in some places can be
quickly adopted and implemented Te
plethora o new advances and effective
tools successes at the local level and
engagement o citizens businesses and
scientists around the world provide
impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in
transitioning to more sustainable prac-
tices and policies
Priority actions include educating
citizens and policymakers about the
benefits o new approaches strength-
ening interdisciplinary approaches to
problem solving reducing the stres-
sors over which we have direct control
(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o
greenhouse gases to slow down the rates
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion protecting as much biodiversity as
possible and managing or ecosystem
resilience Holistic strategies or
engaging stakeholders and or preserving
or restoring ecosystem unctioning
and resilience are critical to success
Momentum is building inormed by
scientific advances and public involve-
ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo
ACKNOWLEDGEMENS
We would like to thank the National
Academies Ocean Studies Board
particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch
Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or
organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture
the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o
Natural History or hosting the event
and Senator John Kerry or providing
a dynamic introduction to the lecture
Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture
sponsors or their generous support
Logistical support rom Frank Parker
and figure design assistance rom Mike
Walker are also greatly appreciated
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
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Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
or marine conservation Ecological Applications
8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
Resilience for Complexity and Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
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Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
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impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or
managing ecosystem services Beyond the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the
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noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13
Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998
Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
harvesting o stochastic spatial resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 561ndash18
Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
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Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3
UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)
Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
Letters 5361ndash366
Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands
marine reserve network Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
eries Nature 4551044ndash1045
Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
Series 38433ndash46
Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 815
Oceanography Vol23 No2122
Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management (EBM)
EBM simply means taking a place-
based ecosystem approach to manage-
ment with the goal o sustaining the
long-term capacity o the system to
deliver ecosystem services (Rosenberg
and McLeod 2005) Doing so requires
synthesizing and applying knowledge
rom social and natural sciences
EBM is different rom traditional
approaches that usually ocus on a single
species sector activity or concern In
contrast EBM considers the cumula-
tive impacts o different sectors and
the connections between people and
ecosystems as well as the connections
among the different components o
the ecosystem (Figure 4) Although
many EBM concepts have been codi-
fied only recently (McLeod et al 2005)
they are actively employed in multiple
ecosystems around the world Recent
advances in understanding and prac-
ticing EBM are summarized in McLeod
and Leslie (2009a)
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)
MSP also called coastal and marine
spatial planning is an EBM tool or
minimizing conflicts among users
and reducing impacts on ecosystem
unctioning Increasing demands on
ocean space or diverse uses including
tourism recreation fishing shipping
national security oil and gas exploration
and wave and wind energy have led to
more and more conflicts among users
as well as additional impacts on already
stressed ocean ecosystems (United
Nations Environment Programme 2006
Douvere 2008) MSP is a process that
enables integrated orward-looking
decision making through an ecosystem-
based spatially explicit approach (Ehler
and Douvere 2007) Spatial planning has
been practiced on land or centuries as
humans have determined how to allocate
specific areas or multiple uses including
orestry conservation development
and agriculture
Te concept o zoning in the ocean
is a relatively new idea Te first
comprehensive MSP was developed
in the 1980s or the Great Barrier Ree
Marine Park in Australia Specific areas
are zoned or different uses including
fishing and tourism and other areas are
designated as ully protected helping to
minimize user conflicts and ecosystem
impacts (Douvere 2008) Because o
the interdependency o human and
natural systems the MSP process is most
successul when it involves broad partici-
pation by stakeholder groups scientists
and managers (Pomeroy and Douvere
2008) In addition to consideration o
human uses it is important or planners
to understand the biological communi-
ties and the key processes that maintain
them in order to create plans that maxi-
mize ecosystem resilience (Crowder
and Norse 2008)
Efforts are currently underway to
develop marine spatial plans or the
United States On December 14 2009
President Obamarsquos Interagency Ocean
Policy ask Force released an interim
ramework or effective coastal and
able 2 A shift in approaches to management is underway for coastal and marine ecosystems
Historical Approach New Approach
Short-term perspective Long-term and evolutionary perspectives
Single-sector focus Multi-sector focus
Natural science approach Coupled natural and social science approach
Single-species management Ecosystem-based management
Focus on delivery of products Focus on maintaining ecosystem resilience and delivery of ecosystem services
Greater use of fines Greater use of incentives
Regulation of effort Regulation of outcome
Command and control centralized top-down regulation op-down plus bottom-up decision making more local control
Reactive Anticipatory and precautionary
Static Adaptive
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 123
EBM
GoalSustainable ecosystem
services andresilient ecosystems
TransportationManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient transport
accessible ports with links to land transport minimize
impacts on protectedspecies and habitat
EnergyManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient production
accessible to marketsminimize conicts
minimize habitat impacts
ScientifcAdvisory Body
Dynamicecosystem-wide
integrated assessment
FisheryManagement
Sector GoalsOptimize yield o target
species minimize bycatchreduce habitat impacts
maintain coastalcommunities
marine spatial planning wo weeks later
the Commonwealth o Massachusetts
became the first US state to release a
comprehensive ocean management plan
or its 1500-mile coastline (Figure 3a)
Other states and nations are pursuinguse o this tool as a vehicle or more
holistic management o ocean resources
and ecosystems
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)
and Reserves
MPAs provide a complementary tool
or protecting habitat biodiversity and
ecosystem unctioning (eg Halpern
et al in press) MPAs are areas o theocean that are managed or a conser-
vation benefit Tis tool provides an
ecosystem- and place-based approach to
management as opposed to a species-
based approach MPAs may be used
alone or as part o an MSP ramework
Fully protected (also called ldquono-takerdquo)
marine reserves are a type o MPA that
are completely protected rom all extrac-
tive and destructive activities (Lubchenco
et al 2003) Marine reserves currently
constitute lt 1 o the global ocean
(Wood et al 2008) Benefits o marine
reserves include habitat protection
biodiversity conservation enhancement
o ecosystem services recovery o over-
exploited stocks export o individuals
outside the reserve insurance against
environmental uncertainty and sites
or scientific research education and
recreation (Allison et al 1998) Scientific
analyses o the hundreds o no-take
marine reserves around the world
provide compelling evidence that they
do indeed protect biodiversity and habi-
tats (Gaines et al in press a) Density
diversity biomass and size o organisms
are higher inside reserves as opposed
to outside (Figure 5 Halpern 2003
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies
o Coastal Oceans 2007 Hamilton et al
in press) On average these benefits are
rapid (ofen occurring within one to
three years) and long-lasting (Halpernand Warner 2002) However not all
species respond rapidly and the rates at
which populations change depend on lie
histories and the availability o colonists
(Babcock et al in press) as well as social
actors (Pollnac et al in press)
Marine reserves provide a unique
mechanism or protecting large-bodied
individuals o fish and invertebrates
Large emales (otherwise known as ldquobig
old ecund emalesrdquo or BOFFs) have
much greater reproductive potential than
do smaller emales (Figure 6) and are
understood to be especially importantor sustaining populations Protection
o BOFFs may also help to counter the
negative evolutionary impacts o fishing
that result in reproduction at smaller
sizes (Baskett et al 2005) and in some
cases the distortion o size structure and
social structure or fish that are sequen-
tial hermaphrodites
Figure 4 Framing ecosystem-based management (EBM) goals across sectors (modi-
fied from Rosenberg and Sandifer 2009) Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography Vol23 No2124
Average
BiomassN = 55
DensityN = 118
SizeN = 51
DiversityN = 39
P e r c e n t C h a n g e i n B i o l o g i c a l M
e a s u r e s
3000
2000
1000
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
446
2128
166
or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007) For example coastal
areas surrounding the Merritt Island
Florida reserve exhibited a rapid
increase in the number o world-record-
sized black drum red drum and spottedsea trout once the ully protected area
was established (Roberts et al 2001)
Reproduction within reserves
produces young that may be transported
by ocean currents outside the reserve
Tis ldquoexportrdquo o larvae is more difficult
to quantiy than ldquospilloverrdquo o juveniles
or adults but both processes transport
benefits rom inside a reserve to the
surrounding areas A network o marinereserves which is a set o reserves
separated by non-reserve waters but
connected by the movement o young
juveniles or adults can be designed to
maximize transport o benefits to the
outside (McCook et al in press Pelc
et al in press) Because o spillover
export and other benefits provided by
reserves optimal fisheries harvest occurs
when some areas o a region are tempo-
rarily or permanently closed (Costello
and Polasky 2008) Planning and imple-
mentation o marine reserve networks
are acilitated by access to biological and
socioeconomic inormation (Grorud-
Colvert et al in press Smith et al in
press) Te availability o high-quality
spatial inormation on the location
o fish populations allows or spatial
optimization in the implementation o
marine reserve networks that lead to
increased profit margins or surrounding
fisheries (Costello et al in press Gaines
et al in press b) For all o these reasons
no-take marine reserves and MPAs are
increasingly seen as useul tools in a
larger strategy to protect and restore
coastal and ocean ecosystems
Figure 5 Impact of no-take marine reserves on biomass density size and diver-
sity of species inside of a reserve Used with permission from the Partnership for
Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data from Lester et al (2009)
Figure 6 Relationship of number of young produced to body size of fish for vermillion rockfish A
23-inch vermillion rockfish produces 17 times more young than it did when it was 14 inches long
Used with permission from the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data fromLove et al (1990)
Productivity within marine reserves
also leads to ldquospilloverrdquomdashthe migra-
tion o animals rom inside the reserve
to the outsidemdashpotentially enhancing
commercial and recreational fisheries
surrounding the protected area or
contributing to recovery o depleted fish-
eries (Roberts et al 2001 Partnership
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1115
Oceanography June 2010 125
With ITQ
Without ITQ
Number of
ITQ Fisheries
Year
C
o l l a p s e d
I T
Q s I m p l e m e n t e d
0
10
20
30
100
75
50
25
0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Catch Shares
Catch shares provide an alternative
to traditional fishery management by
incorporating new understanding rom
social and economic sciences Instead
o individual commercial fishermenbeing incentivized by the ldquorace to fishrdquo
to outcompete others rights-based
fisheriesrsquo reorms offer an alternative
solution (Hilborn et al 2005) In lieu
o industry-wide quotas fishermen are
allocated individual quotas reerred
to as ldquocatch sharesrdquo o the total allow-
able catch and the goal is to provide
fishermen and communities with a
secure asset in order to create steward-ship incentives (Costello et al 2008)
Catch shares thus align economic and
conservation incentives Tey also hold
fishermen accountable or adhering
to the rules
Te concept o catch shares
pioneered in Australia New Zealand
and Iceland has now been implemented
or hundreds o fisheries throughout
the world Effectiveness o catch shares
was documented in a global analysis o
over 11000 fisheries Results indicated
that implementation o catch shares can
halt and even reverse trends toward
widespread fishery collapse (Figure 7
Costello et al 2008 Heal and Schlenker
2008) Tis evidence suggests that catch
shares offer a promising tool or sustain-
able fisheries management
o date 12 fisheries in the United
States have adopted this management
approach Te results have been impres-
sive sustainable fisheries improved
economic perormance o the fishery
decreased environmental impact and
increased saety at sea For example in
Alaskarsquos halibut (Figure 3c) and sablefish
fisheries the length o the fishing season
was extended rom less than a week to
eight months per year bycatch dropped
by 80 and saety improved sharply
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
In the Gul o Mexicorsquos red snapperfishery commercial overfishing ended
or the first time in decades fishermen
are receiving higher dockside prices
or their catch and reducing costs as
they are able to better plan their trips
and discards have decreased by 70
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
Catch shares are not necessarily suitable
or every fishery but they appear to holdpromise or many
Future Possible ools
Other tools seem ripe or development
but do not yet exist One is a nutrient-
trading scheme to decrease the flow o
excess nutrients rom agricultural and
livestock areas into coastal waters Dead
zones (areas o low oxygen) in coastal
oceans have spread exponentially since
the 1960s as a result o nutrient runoff
due to changes in agricultural and land-use practices dead zones now occur
over a total area o 245000 km2 (Diaz
and Rosenberg 2008) Fertilizer use in
the Mississippi River watershed which
drains 41 o the continental United
States leads to a severe seasonal dead
zone in the Gul o Mexico that extends
across 20000 km2 (Rabalais et al 2002)
One proposed approach or combating
excess nitrogen input might be the estab-lishment o cap-and-trade policy or
nitrogen where a limit would be set on
nitrogen input or each region (Socolow
1999) with regions able to trade quotas
A similar approach was successully used
by the Environmental Protection Agency
Figure 7 Percentage of fisheries collapsed (left y-axis) without (solid line) and with
(dotted line) catch share management using the Worm et al (2006) collapse threshold
of 10 of historical maximum (modified from Costello et al 2008) Individual trans-
ferable quotas (IQs) are a form of catch shares Te number of catch share fisheries
increases through time (right y-axis and dashed line) Used with permission from the
American Association for the Advancement of Science
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1215
Oceanography Vol23 No2126
under the Acid Rain Program to cap
emissions o sulur dioxide to reduce the
occurrence o acid rain Tis program
was so effective that sulur dioxide
reductions were achieved at significantly
lower costs and at much aster rates thanoriginally estimated
Another potentially useul tool would
involve better analytical methods or
detecting an approaching ecological
threshold or tipping point in time to
avert potential disaster (eg a fishery
collapse) Biggs et al (2009) provide
an example o such an early-warning
indicator Te lack o relevant long-term
data sets may present considerable chal-lenges in utilizing these tools thereore
efforts to urther develop them will need
to occur in parallel with (and should
inorm the development o) improved
monitoring efforts In addition the
utility o such indicators will rest upon
the adaptive capacity o management to
avert the shifmdashboth the ability o the
management regime to respond rapidly
and the ability to control the appropriate
drivers o change (Carpenter and Brock
2008 Biggs et al 2009)
None o the above tools offers a
panacea but each provides useul
approaches that build on existing
understanding rom both natural
and social sciences Maintaining the
suite o ecosystem services requires
protecting the unctioning o ecosys-
tems Integrated ecosystem assessments
that elucidate how the different social
and natural components interact provide
a decision-making ramework Place-based ecosystem-based and adaptive
management approaches are essential
New tools to acilitate understanding
o and decisions about tradeoffs will
be key In short effective management
o coastal and marine ecosystems will
require orward-thinking holistic and
ecosystem-based approaches that involve
users managers and scientific experts
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Continuing to educate and engage
citizens provide inormation to guide
decision making and develop and
implement new tools and approaches
based on the more holistic under-
standing described above will undoubt-
edly bring significant benefits For those
approaches to be maximally effective
additional inormation about ecosystem
and human patterns and processes
is needed such as basic patterns o
biodiversity understanding the scales
over which key ecosystem processes
operate socioeconomic inormation at
relevant scales methods or identiying
thresholds and approaches or designing
resilient institutions and manage-
ment structures Tis will also require
significant advances in ecosystem-
based science ecosystem services and
resilience rom a coupled humanndashnatural
system perspectiveIn addition inormation is not always
available at the relevant spatial scale or
management For example the majority
o climate change scenarios have been
developed or the global scale but most
o the impacts will be elt at local to
regional scales Tis mismatch o scales
makes it difficult or managers to incor-
porate climate inormation into their
planning processes Similarly effectivesustainable management o large-scale
resources (eg large marine ecosystems)
requires collaboration among interna-
tional national regional state and local
levels which creates challenges (Ostrom
et al 1999) Te need to address
problems at the local to regional scale
associated with shared global resources
is increasing Globalization is occur-
ring throughout many o our coupled
human-natural systems leading to
increased connectedness with both posi-
tive and negative results (Young et al
2006) A diversity o scales is necessary
or effective resilient management by
building on local and regional institu-
tions to ocus on global problems the
likelihood o success can be increased
(Ostrom et al 1999) Te ocus on
understanding impacts o climate change
on regions (US Global Change Research
Program 2009) is leading to increased
attention towards the ability o climate
models to resolve regional scales
Both climate change and ocean acidi-
fication are likely to transorm coastal
and ocean species ecosystems and
ecosystem services Priority should be
ldquoOUR FUURE DEPENDS UPON MAINAINING
HEALHY OCEAN AND COASAL ECOSYSEMS AND
HEALHY HUMAN COMMUNIIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
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Oceanography June 2010 127
given to understanding the likely impacts
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion as well as ways to ameliorate those
impacts Given the rapid pace at which
ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by
doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict
the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)
Even though todayrsquos challenges are
already substantial climate change and
ocean acidification will interact with
and exacerbate the other drivers o
change Hence to be relevant and useul
management and policy must ocus on
tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural
systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-
sible Likely keys to success include the
ollowing approaches
bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such
as extinctions)
bull Managing or resilience
bull Managing with the expectation
o surprises
bull Creating flexible institutions with
capacity to adapt rapidly
bull Preserving as much biodiversity
(genetic species and habitat)
as possible
bull Developing rules o thumb or
managers in lieu o precise targets
bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors
over which there is more immediate
control
bull Sharing inormation and lessons via
learning networks
bull Investing effort in scientific research
to provide knowledge or the
above strategies
bull Supporting monitoring and
analysis to guide management and
policy decisions
In short these strategies all into two
categories (1) making better use o
existing inormation and (2) acquiring
new knowledge that would enhance
more sustainable practices and poli-
cies Incorporating climate change
and ocean acidification adaptation
strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way
to integrate a number o the above-
mentioned approaches
CONCLUDING REMARK S
Our uture depends upon maintaining
healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems
and healthy human communities Both
are in flux and each is coupled to the
other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide
a ocus or understanding policy and
management Awareness that natural
systems can undergo rapid change once
a tipping point is reached lends urgency
to the need or embracing novel tools
and approaches scaling up their use
and creating new knowledge inorma-
tion and tools
Global threats to our coastal
and marine ecosystems are rapidly
increasing We are currently operating
in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which
human activities have driven global
environmental change to a point that
has never beore been observed (Steffen
et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining
our natural resources are being depleted
and habitats are being destroyed Along
with these changes come the losses o
valuable ecosystem services on which
humans depend
In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-
tems social systems can also undergo
rapid change once a tipping point is
reached Knowledge that rapid soci-
etal shifs occur can provide hope
that successes in some places can be
quickly adopted and implemented Te
plethora o new advances and effective
tools successes at the local level and
engagement o citizens businesses and
scientists around the world provide
impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in
transitioning to more sustainable prac-
tices and policies
Priority actions include educating
citizens and policymakers about the
benefits o new approaches strength-
ening interdisciplinary approaches to
problem solving reducing the stres-
sors over which we have direct control
(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o
greenhouse gases to slow down the rates
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion protecting as much biodiversity as
possible and managing or ecosystem
resilience Holistic strategies or
engaging stakeholders and or preserving
or restoring ecosystem unctioning
and resilience are critical to success
Momentum is building inormed by
scientific advances and public involve-
ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo
ACKNOWLEDGEMENS
We would like to thank the National
Academies Ocean Studies Board
particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch
Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or
organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture
the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o
Natural History or hosting the event
and Senator John Kerry or providing
a dynamic introduction to the lecture
Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture
sponsors or their generous support
Logistical support rom Frank Parker
and figure design assistance rom Mike
Walker are also greatly appreciated
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
REFERENCESAllison GW J Lubchenco and MH Carr 1998
Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
or marine conservation Ecological Applications
8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
Resilience for Complexity and Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
UK 416 pp
Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
urning back rom the brink Detecting and
impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America 106826ndash831
Carpenter SR and WA Brock 2008 Adaptive
capacity and traps Ecology and Society 13(2)40
Carpenter SR and C Folke 2006 Ecology
or transormation rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or
managing ecosystem services Beyond the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 1061305ndash1312Carpenter SR C Folke M Scheffer and
F Westley 2009b Resilience Accounting or the
noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13
Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998
Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
harvesting o stochastic spatial resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 561ndash18
Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
Sea Change Report of the First International
Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3
UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)
Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
Letters 5361ndash366
Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands
marine reserve network Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
eries Nature 4551044ndash1045
Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
Series 38433ndash46
Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 915
Oceanography June 2010 123
EBM
GoalSustainable ecosystem
services andresilient ecosystems
TransportationManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient transport
accessible ports with links to land transport minimize
impacts on protectedspecies and habitat
EnergyManagement
Sector GoalsEfcient production
accessible to marketsminimize conicts
minimize habitat impacts
ScientifcAdvisory Body
Dynamicecosystem-wide
integrated assessment
FisheryManagement
Sector GoalsOptimize yield o target
species minimize bycatchreduce habitat impacts
maintain coastalcommunities
marine spatial planning wo weeks later
the Commonwealth o Massachusetts
became the first US state to release a
comprehensive ocean management plan
or its 1500-mile coastline (Figure 3a)
Other states and nations are pursuinguse o this tool as a vehicle or more
holistic management o ocean resources
and ecosystems
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)
and Reserves
MPAs provide a complementary tool
or protecting habitat biodiversity and
ecosystem unctioning (eg Halpern
et al in press) MPAs are areas o theocean that are managed or a conser-
vation benefit Tis tool provides an
ecosystem- and place-based approach to
management as opposed to a species-
based approach MPAs may be used
alone or as part o an MSP ramework
Fully protected (also called ldquono-takerdquo)
marine reserves are a type o MPA that
are completely protected rom all extrac-
tive and destructive activities (Lubchenco
et al 2003) Marine reserves currently
constitute lt 1 o the global ocean
(Wood et al 2008) Benefits o marine
reserves include habitat protection
biodiversity conservation enhancement
o ecosystem services recovery o over-
exploited stocks export o individuals
outside the reserve insurance against
environmental uncertainty and sites
or scientific research education and
recreation (Allison et al 1998) Scientific
analyses o the hundreds o no-take
marine reserves around the world
provide compelling evidence that they
do indeed protect biodiversity and habi-
tats (Gaines et al in press a) Density
diversity biomass and size o organisms
are higher inside reserves as opposed
to outside (Figure 5 Halpern 2003
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies
o Coastal Oceans 2007 Hamilton et al
in press) On average these benefits are
rapid (ofen occurring within one to
three years) and long-lasting (Halpernand Warner 2002) However not all
species respond rapidly and the rates at
which populations change depend on lie
histories and the availability o colonists
(Babcock et al in press) as well as social
actors (Pollnac et al in press)
Marine reserves provide a unique
mechanism or protecting large-bodied
individuals o fish and invertebrates
Large emales (otherwise known as ldquobig
old ecund emalesrdquo or BOFFs) have
much greater reproductive potential than
do smaller emales (Figure 6) and are
understood to be especially importantor sustaining populations Protection
o BOFFs may also help to counter the
negative evolutionary impacts o fishing
that result in reproduction at smaller
sizes (Baskett et al 2005) and in some
cases the distortion o size structure and
social structure or fish that are sequen-
tial hermaphrodites
Figure 4 Framing ecosystem-based management (EBM) goals across sectors (modi-
fied from Rosenberg and Sandifer 2009) Used with permission from Island Press
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1015
Oceanography Vol23 No2124
Average
BiomassN = 55
DensityN = 118
SizeN = 51
DiversityN = 39
P e r c e n t C h a n g e i n B i o l o g i c a l M
e a s u r e s
3000
2000
1000
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
446
2128
166
or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007) For example coastal
areas surrounding the Merritt Island
Florida reserve exhibited a rapid
increase in the number o world-record-
sized black drum red drum and spottedsea trout once the ully protected area
was established (Roberts et al 2001)
Reproduction within reserves
produces young that may be transported
by ocean currents outside the reserve
Tis ldquoexportrdquo o larvae is more difficult
to quantiy than ldquospilloverrdquo o juveniles
or adults but both processes transport
benefits rom inside a reserve to the
surrounding areas A network o marinereserves which is a set o reserves
separated by non-reserve waters but
connected by the movement o young
juveniles or adults can be designed to
maximize transport o benefits to the
outside (McCook et al in press Pelc
et al in press) Because o spillover
export and other benefits provided by
reserves optimal fisheries harvest occurs
when some areas o a region are tempo-
rarily or permanently closed (Costello
and Polasky 2008) Planning and imple-
mentation o marine reserve networks
are acilitated by access to biological and
socioeconomic inormation (Grorud-
Colvert et al in press Smith et al in
press) Te availability o high-quality
spatial inormation on the location
o fish populations allows or spatial
optimization in the implementation o
marine reserve networks that lead to
increased profit margins or surrounding
fisheries (Costello et al in press Gaines
et al in press b) For all o these reasons
no-take marine reserves and MPAs are
increasingly seen as useul tools in a
larger strategy to protect and restore
coastal and ocean ecosystems
Figure 5 Impact of no-take marine reserves on biomass density size and diver-
sity of species inside of a reserve Used with permission from the Partnership for
Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data from Lester et al (2009)
Figure 6 Relationship of number of young produced to body size of fish for vermillion rockfish A
23-inch vermillion rockfish produces 17 times more young than it did when it was 14 inches long
Used with permission from the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data fromLove et al (1990)
Productivity within marine reserves
also leads to ldquospilloverrdquomdashthe migra-
tion o animals rom inside the reserve
to the outsidemdashpotentially enhancing
commercial and recreational fisheries
surrounding the protected area or
contributing to recovery o depleted fish-
eries (Roberts et al 2001 Partnership
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1115
Oceanography June 2010 125
With ITQ
Without ITQ
Number of
ITQ Fisheries
Year
C
o l l a p s e d
I T
Q s I m p l e m e n t e d
0
10
20
30
100
75
50
25
0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Catch Shares
Catch shares provide an alternative
to traditional fishery management by
incorporating new understanding rom
social and economic sciences Instead
o individual commercial fishermenbeing incentivized by the ldquorace to fishrdquo
to outcompete others rights-based
fisheriesrsquo reorms offer an alternative
solution (Hilborn et al 2005) In lieu
o industry-wide quotas fishermen are
allocated individual quotas reerred
to as ldquocatch sharesrdquo o the total allow-
able catch and the goal is to provide
fishermen and communities with a
secure asset in order to create steward-ship incentives (Costello et al 2008)
Catch shares thus align economic and
conservation incentives Tey also hold
fishermen accountable or adhering
to the rules
Te concept o catch shares
pioneered in Australia New Zealand
and Iceland has now been implemented
or hundreds o fisheries throughout
the world Effectiveness o catch shares
was documented in a global analysis o
over 11000 fisheries Results indicated
that implementation o catch shares can
halt and even reverse trends toward
widespread fishery collapse (Figure 7
Costello et al 2008 Heal and Schlenker
2008) Tis evidence suggests that catch
shares offer a promising tool or sustain-
able fisheries management
o date 12 fisheries in the United
States have adopted this management
approach Te results have been impres-
sive sustainable fisheries improved
economic perormance o the fishery
decreased environmental impact and
increased saety at sea For example in
Alaskarsquos halibut (Figure 3c) and sablefish
fisheries the length o the fishing season
was extended rom less than a week to
eight months per year bycatch dropped
by 80 and saety improved sharply
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
In the Gul o Mexicorsquos red snapperfishery commercial overfishing ended
or the first time in decades fishermen
are receiving higher dockside prices
or their catch and reducing costs as
they are able to better plan their trips
and discards have decreased by 70
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
Catch shares are not necessarily suitable
or every fishery but they appear to holdpromise or many
Future Possible ools
Other tools seem ripe or development
but do not yet exist One is a nutrient-
trading scheme to decrease the flow o
excess nutrients rom agricultural and
livestock areas into coastal waters Dead
zones (areas o low oxygen) in coastal
oceans have spread exponentially since
the 1960s as a result o nutrient runoff
due to changes in agricultural and land-use practices dead zones now occur
over a total area o 245000 km2 (Diaz
and Rosenberg 2008) Fertilizer use in
the Mississippi River watershed which
drains 41 o the continental United
States leads to a severe seasonal dead
zone in the Gul o Mexico that extends
across 20000 km2 (Rabalais et al 2002)
One proposed approach or combating
excess nitrogen input might be the estab-lishment o cap-and-trade policy or
nitrogen where a limit would be set on
nitrogen input or each region (Socolow
1999) with regions able to trade quotas
A similar approach was successully used
by the Environmental Protection Agency
Figure 7 Percentage of fisheries collapsed (left y-axis) without (solid line) and with
(dotted line) catch share management using the Worm et al (2006) collapse threshold
of 10 of historical maximum (modified from Costello et al 2008) Individual trans-
ferable quotas (IQs) are a form of catch shares Te number of catch share fisheries
increases through time (right y-axis and dashed line) Used with permission from the
American Association for the Advancement of Science
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1215
Oceanography Vol23 No2126
under the Acid Rain Program to cap
emissions o sulur dioxide to reduce the
occurrence o acid rain Tis program
was so effective that sulur dioxide
reductions were achieved at significantly
lower costs and at much aster rates thanoriginally estimated
Another potentially useul tool would
involve better analytical methods or
detecting an approaching ecological
threshold or tipping point in time to
avert potential disaster (eg a fishery
collapse) Biggs et al (2009) provide
an example o such an early-warning
indicator Te lack o relevant long-term
data sets may present considerable chal-lenges in utilizing these tools thereore
efforts to urther develop them will need
to occur in parallel with (and should
inorm the development o) improved
monitoring efforts In addition the
utility o such indicators will rest upon
the adaptive capacity o management to
avert the shifmdashboth the ability o the
management regime to respond rapidly
and the ability to control the appropriate
drivers o change (Carpenter and Brock
2008 Biggs et al 2009)
None o the above tools offers a
panacea but each provides useul
approaches that build on existing
understanding rom both natural
and social sciences Maintaining the
suite o ecosystem services requires
protecting the unctioning o ecosys-
tems Integrated ecosystem assessments
that elucidate how the different social
and natural components interact provide
a decision-making ramework Place-based ecosystem-based and adaptive
management approaches are essential
New tools to acilitate understanding
o and decisions about tradeoffs will
be key In short effective management
o coastal and marine ecosystems will
require orward-thinking holistic and
ecosystem-based approaches that involve
users managers and scientific experts
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Continuing to educate and engage
citizens provide inormation to guide
decision making and develop and
implement new tools and approaches
based on the more holistic under-
standing described above will undoubt-
edly bring significant benefits For those
approaches to be maximally effective
additional inormation about ecosystem
and human patterns and processes
is needed such as basic patterns o
biodiversity understanding the scales
over which key ecosystem processes
operate socioeconomic inormation at
relevant scales methods or identiying
thresholds and approaches or designing
resilient institutions and manage-
ment structures Tis will also require
significant advances in ecosystem-
based science ecosystem services and
resilience rom a coupled humanndashnatural
system perspectiveIn addition inormation is not always
available at the relevant spatial scale or
management For example the majority
o climate change scenarios have been
developed or the global scale but most
o the impacts will be elt at local to
regional scales Tis mismatch o scales
makes it difficult or managers to incor-
porate climate inormation into their
planning processes Similarly effectivesustainable management o large-scale
resources (eg large marine ecosystems)
requires collaboration among interna-
tional national regional state and local
levels which creates challenges (Ostrom
et al 1999) Te need to address
problems at the local to regional scale
associated with shared global resources
is increasing Globalization is occur-
ring throughout many o our coupled
human-natural systems leading to
increased connectedness with both posi-
tive and negative results (Young et al
2006) A diversity o scales is necessary
or effective resilient management by
building on local and regional institu-
tions to ocus on global problems the
likelihood o success can be increased
(Ostrom et al 1999) Te ocus on
understanding impacts o climate change
on regions (US Global Change Research
Program 2009) is leading to increased
attention towards the ability o climate
models to resolve regional scales
Both climate change and ocean acidi-
fication are likely to transorm coastal
and ocean species ecosystems and
ecosystem services Priority should be
ldquoOUR FUURE DEPENDS UPON MAINAINING
HEALHY OCEAN AND COASAL ECOSYSEMS AND
HEALHY HUMAN COMMUNIIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1315
Oceanography June 2010 127
given to understanding the likely impacts
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion as well as ways to ameliorate those
impacts Given the rapid pace at which
ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by
doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict
the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)
Even though todayrsquos challenges are
already substantial climate change and
ocean acidification will interact with
and exacerbate the other drivers o
change Hence to be relevant and useul
management and policy must ocus on
tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural
systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-
sible Likely keys to success include the
ollowing approaches
bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such
as extinctions)
bull Managing or resilience
bull Managing with the expectation
o surprises
bull Creating flexible institutions with
capacity to adapt rapidly
bull Preserving as much biodiversity
(genetic species and habitat)
as possible
bull Developing rules o thumb or
managers in lieu o precise targets
bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors
over which there is more immediate
control
bull Sharing inormation and lessons via
learning networks
bull Investing effort in scientific research
to provide knowledge or the
above strategies
bull Supporting monitoring and
analysis to guide management and
policy decisions
In short these strategies all into two
categories (1) making better use o
existing inormation and (2) acquiring
new knowledge that would enhance
more sustainable practices and poli-
cies Incorporating climate change
and ocean acidification adaptation
strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way
to integrate a number o the above-
mentioned approaches
CONCLUDING REMARK S
Our uture depends upon maintaining
healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems
and healthy human communities Both
are in flux and each is coupled to the
other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide
a ocus or understanding policy and
management Awareness that natural
systems can undergo rapid change once
a tipping point is reached lends urgency
to the need or embracing novel tools
and approaches scaling up their use
and creating new knowledge inorma-
tion and tools
Global threats to our coastal
and marine ecosystems are rapidly
increasing We are currently operating
in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which
human activities have driven global
environmental change to a point that
has never beore been observed (Steffen
et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining
our natural resources are being depleted
and habitats are being destroyed Along
with these changes come the losses o
valuable ecosystem services on which
humans depend
In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-
tems social systems can also undergo
rapid change once a tipping point is
reached Knowledge that rapid soci-
etal shifs occur can provide hope
that successes in some places can be
quickly adopted and implemented Te
plethora o new advances and effective
tools successes at the local level and
engagement o citizens businesses and
scientists around the world provide
impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in
transitioning to more sustainable prac-
tices and policies
Priority actions include educating
citizens and policymakers about the
benefits o new approaches strength-
ening interdisciplinary approaches to
problem solving reducing the stres-
sors over which we have direct control
(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o
greenhouse gases to slow down the rates
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion protecting as much biodiversity as
possible and managing or ecosystem
resilience Holistic strategies or
engaging stakeholders and or preserving
or restoring ecosystem unctioning
and resilience are critical to success
Momentum is building inormed by
scientific advances and public involve-
ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo
ACKNOWLEDGEMENS
We would like to thank the National
Academies Ocean Studies Board
particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch
Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or
organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture
the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o
Natural History or hosting the event
and Senator John Kerry or providing
a dynamic introduction to the lecture
Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture
sponsors or their generous support
Logistical support rom Frank Parker
and figure design assistance rom Mike
Walker are also greatly appreciated
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
REFERENCESAllison GW J Lubchenco and MH Carr 1998
Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
or marine conservation Ecological Applications
8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
Resilience for Complexity and Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
UK 416 pp
Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
urning back rom the brink Detecting and
impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America 106826ndash831
Carpenter SR and WA Brock 2008 Adaptive
capacity and traps Ecology and Society 13(2)40
Carpenter SR and C Folke 2006 Ecology
or transormation rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or
managing ecosystem services Beyond the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 1061305ndash1312Carpenter SR C Folke M Scheffer and
F Westley 2009b Resilience Accounting or the
noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13
Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998
Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
harvesting o stochastic spatial resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 561ndash18
Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
Sea Change Report of the First International
Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3
UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)
Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
Letters 5361ndash366
Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands
marine reserve network Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
eries Nature 4551044ndash1045
Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
Series 38433ndash46
Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1015
Oceanography Vol23 No2124
Average
BiomassN = 55
DensityN = 118
SizeN = 51
DiversityN = 39
P e r c e n t C h a n g e i n B i o l o g i c a l M
e a s u r e s
3000
2000
1000
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
446
2128
166
or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007) For example coastal
areas surrounding the Merritt Island
Florida reserve exhibited a rapid
increase in the number o world-record-
sized black drum red drum and spottedsea trout once the ully protected area
was established (Roberts et al 2001)
Reproduction within reserves
produces young that may be transported
by ocean currents outside the reserve
Tis ldquoexportrdquo o larvae is more difficult
to quantiy than ldquospilloverrdquo o juveniles
or adults but both processes transport
benefits rom inside a reserve to the
surrounding areas A network o marinereserves which is a set o reserves
separated by non-reserve waters but
connected by the movement o young
juveniles or adults can be designed to
maximize transport o benefits to the
outside (McCook et al in press Pelc
et al in press) Because o spillover
export and other benefits provided by
reserves optimal fisheries harvest occurs
when some areas o a region are tempo-
rarily or permanently closed (Costello
and Polasky 2008) Planning and imple-
mentation o marine reserve networks
are acilitated by access to biological and
socioeconomic inormation (Grorud-
Colvert et al in press Smith et al in
press) Te availability o high-quality
spatial inormation on the location
o fish populations allows or spatial
optimization in the implementation o
marine reserve networks that lead to
increased profit margins or surrounding
fisheries (Costello et al in press Gaines
et al in press b) For all o these reasons
no-take marine reserves and MPAs are
increasingly seen as useul tools in a
larger strategy to protect and restore
coastal and ocean ecosystems
Figure 5 Impact of no-take marine reserves on biomass density size and diver-
sity of species inside of a reserve Used with permission from the Partnership for
Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data from Lester et al (2009)
Figure 6 Relationship of number of young produced to body size of fish for vermillion rockfish A
23-inch vermillion rockfish produces 17 times more young than it did when it was 14 inches long
Used with permission from the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans data fromLove et al (1990)
Productivity within marine reserves
also leads to ldquospilloverrdquomdashthe migra-
tion o animals rom inside the reserve
to the outsidemdashpotentially enhancing
commercial and recreational fisheries
surrounding the protected area or
contributing to recovery o depleted fish-
eries (Roberts et al 2001 Partnership
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1115
Oceanography June 2010 125
With ITQ
Without ITQ
Number of
ITQ Fisheries
Year
C
o l l a p s e d
I T
Q s I m p l e m e n t e d
0
10
20
30
100
75
50
25
0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Catch Shares
Catch shares provide an alternative
to traditional fishery management by
incorporating new understanding rom
social and economic sciences Instead
o individual commercial fishermenbeing incentivized by the ldquorace to fishrdquo
to outcompete others rights-based
fisheriesrsquo reorms offer an alternative
solution (Hilborn et al 2005) In lieu
o industry-wide quotas fishermen are
allocated individual quotas reerred
to as ldquocatch sharesrdquo o the total allow-
able catch and the goal is to provide
fishermen and communities with a
secure asset in order to create steward-ship incentives (Costello et al 2008)
Catch shares thus align economic and
conservation incentives Tey also hold
fishermen accountable or adhering
to the rules
Te concept o catch shares
pioneered in Australia New Zealand
and Iceland has now been implemented
or hundreds o fisheries throughout
the world Effectiveness o catch shares
was documented in a global analysis o
over 11000 fisheries Results indicated
that implementation o catch shares can
halt and even reverse trends toward
widespread fishery collapse (Figure 7
Costello et al 2008 Heal and Schlenker
2008) Tis evidence suggests that catch
shares offer a promising tool or sustain-
able fisheries management
o date 12 fisheries in the United
States have adopted this management
approach Te results have been impres-
sive sustainable fisheries improved
economic perormance o the fishery
decreased environmental impact and
increased saety at sea For example in
Alaskarsquos halibut (Figure 3c) and sablefish
fisheries the length o the fishing season
was extended rom less than a week to
eight months per year bycatch dropped
by 80 and saety improved sharply
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
In the Gul o Mexicorsquos red snapperfishery commercial overfishing ended
or the first time in decades fishermen
are receiving higher dockside prices
or their catch and reducing costs as
they are able to better plan their trips
and discards have decreased by 70
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
Catch shares are not necessarily suitable
or every fishery but they appear to holdpromise or many
Future Possible ools
Other tools seem ripe or development
but do not yet exist One is a nutrient-
trading scheme to decrease the flow o
excess nutrients rom agricultural and
livestock areas into coastal waters Dead
zones (areas o low oxygen) in coastal
oceans have spread exponentially since
the 1960s as a result o nutrient runoff
due to changes in agricultural and land-use practices dead zones now occur
over a total area o 245000 km2 (Diaz
and Rosenberg 2008) Fertilizer use in
the Mississippi River watershed which
drains 41 o the continental United
States leads to a severe seasonal dead
zone in the Gul o Mexico that extends
across 20000 km2 (Rabalais et al 2002)
One proposed approach or combating
excess nitrogen input might be the estab-lishment o cap-and-trade policy or
nitrogen where a limit would be set on
nitrogen input or each region (Socolow
1999) with regions able to trade quotas
A similar approach was successully used
by the Environmental Protection Agency
Figure 7 Percentage of fisheries collapsed (left y-axis) without (solid line) and with
(dotted line) catch share management using the Worm et al (2006) collapse threshold
of 10 of historical maximum (modified from Costello et al 2008) Individual trans-
ferable quotas (IQs) are a form of catch shares Te number of catch share fisheries
increases through time (right y-axis and dashed line) Used with permission from the
American Association for the Advancement of Science
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1215
Oceanography Vol23 No2126
under the Acid Rain Program to cap
emissions o sulur dioxide to reduce the
occurrence o acid rain Tis program
was so effective that sulur dioxide
reductions were achieved at significantly
lower costs and at much aster rates thanoriginally estimated
Another potentially useul tool would
involve better analytical methods or
detecting an approaching ecological
threshold or tipping point in time to
avert potential disaster (eg a fishery
collapse) Biggs et al (2009) provide
an example o such an early-warning
indicator Te lack o relevant long-term
data sets may present considerable chal-lenges in utilizing these tools thereore
efforts to urther develop them will need
to occur in parallel with (and should
inorm the development o) improved
monitoring efforts In addition the
utility o such indicators will rest upon
the adaptive capacity o management to
avert the shifmdashboth the ability o the
management regime to respond rapidly
and the ability to control the appropriate
drivers o change (Carpenter and Brock
2008 Biggs et al 2009)
None o the above tools offers a
panacea but each provides useul
approaches that build on existing
understanding rom both natural
and social sciences Maintaining the
suite o ecosystem services requires
protecting the unctioning o ecosys-
tems Integrated ecosystem assessments
that elucidate how the different social
and natural components interact provide
a decision-making ramework Place-based ecosystem-based and adaptive
management approaches are essential
New tools to acilitate understanding
o and decisions about tradeoffs will
be key In short effective management
o coastal and marine ecosystems will
require orward-thinking holistic and
ecosystem-based approaches that involve
users managers and scientific experts
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Continuing to educate and engage
citizens provide inormation to guide
decision making and develop and
implement new tools and approaches
based on the more holistic under-
standing described above will undoubt-
edly bring significant benefits For those
approaches to be maximally effective
additional inormation about ecosystem
and human patterns and processes
is needed such as basic patterns o
biodiversity understanding the scales
over which key ecosystem processes
operate socioeconomic inormation at
relevant scales methods or identiying
thresholds and approaches or designing
resilient institutions and manage-
ment structures Tis will also require
significant advances in ecosystem-
based science ecosystem services and
resilience rom a coupled humanndashnatural
system perspectiveIn addition inormation is not always
available at the relevant spatial scale or
management For example the majority
o climate change scenarios have been
developed or the global scale but most
o the impacts will be elt at local to
regional scales Tis mismatch o scales
makes it difficult or managers to incor-
porate climate inormation into their
planning processes Similarly effectivesustainable management o large-scale
resources (eg large marine ecosystems)
requires collaboration among interna-
tional national regional state and local
levels which creates challenges (Ostrom
et al 1999) Te need to address
problems at the local to regional scale
associated with shared global resources
is increasing Globalization is occur-
ring throughout many o our coupled
human-natural systems leading to
increased connectedness with both posi-
tive and negative results (Young et al
2006) A diversity o scales is necessary
or effective resilient management by
building on local and regional institu-
tions to ocus on global problems the
likelihood o success can be increased
(Ostrom et al 1999) Te ocus on
understanding impacts o climate change
on regions (US Global Change Research
Program 2009) is leading to increased
attention towards the ability o climate
models to resolve regional scales
Both climate change and ocean acidi-
fication are likely to transorm coastal
and ocean species ecosystems and
ecosystem services Priority should be
ldquoOUR FUURE DEPENDS UPON MAINAINING
HEALHY OCEAN AND COASAL ECOSYSEMS AND
HEALHY HUMAN COMMUNIIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1315
Oceanography June 2010 127
given to understanding the likely impacts
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion as well as ways to ameliorate those
impacts Given the rapid pace at which
ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by
doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict
the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)
Even though todayrsquos challenges are
already substantial climate change and
ocean acidification will interact with
and exacerbate the other drivers o
change Hence to be relevant and useul
management and policy must ocus on
tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural
systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-
sible Likely keys to success include the
ollowing approaches
bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such
as extinctions)
bull Managing or resilience
bull Managing with the expectation
o surprises
bull Creating flexible institutions with
capacity to adapt rapidly
bull Preserving as much biodiversity
(genetic species and habitat)
as possible
bull Developing rules o thumb or
managers in lieu o precise targets
bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors
over which there is more immediate
control
bull Sharing inormation and lessons via
learning networks
bull Investing effort in scientific research
to provide knowledge or the
above strategies
bull Supporting monitoring and
analysis to guide management and
policy decisions
In short these strategies all into two
categories (1) making better use o
existing inormation and (2) acquiring
new knowledge that would enhance
more sustainable practices and poli-
cies Incorporating climate change
and ocean acidification adaptation
strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way
to integrate a number o the above-
mentioned approaches
CONCLUDING REMARK S
Our uture depends upon maintaining
healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems
and healthy human communities Both
are in flux and each is coupled to the
other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide
a ocus or understanding policy and
management Awareness that natural
systems can undergo rapid change once
a tipping point is reached lends urgency
to the need or embracing novel tools
and approaches scaling up their use
and creating new knowledge inorma-
tion and tools
Global threats to our coastal
and marine ecosystems are rapidly
increasing We are currently operating
in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which
human activities have driven global
environmental change to a point that
has never beore been observed (Steffen
et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining
our natural resources are being depleted
and habitats are being destroyed Along
with these changes come the losses o
valuable ecosystem services on which
humans depend
In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-
tems social systems can also undergo
rapid change once a tipping point is
reached Knowledge that rapid soci-
etal shifs occur can provide hope
that successes in some places can be
quickly adopted and implemented Te
plethora o new advances and effective
tools successes at the local level and
engagement o citizens businesses and
scientists around the world provide
impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in
transitioning to more sustainable prac-
tices and policies
Priority actions include educating
citizens and policymakers about the
benefits o new approaches strength-
ening interdisciplinary approaches to
problem solving reducing the stres-
sors over which we have direct control
(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o
greenhouse gases to slow down the rates
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion protecting as much biodiversity as
possible and managing or ecosystem
resilience Holistic strategies or
engaging stakeholders and or preserving
or restoring ecosystem unctioning
and resilience are critical to success
Momentum is building inormed by
scientific advances and public involve-
ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo
ACKNOWLEDGEMENS
We would like to thank the National
Academies Ocean Studies Board
particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch
Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or
organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture
the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o
Natural History or hosting the event
and Senator John Kerry or providing
a dynamic introduction to the lecture
Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture
sponsors or their generous support
Logistical support rom Frank Parker
and figure design assistance rom Mike
Walker are also greatly appreciated
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
REFERENCESAllison GW J Lubchenco and MH Carr 1998
Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
or marine conservation Ecological Applications
8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
Resilience for Complexity and Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
UK 416 pp
Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
urning back rom the brink Detecting and
impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America 106826ndash831
Carpenter SR and WA Brock 2008 Adaptive
capacity and traps Ecology and Society 13(2)40
Carpenter SR and C Folke 2006 Ecology
or transormation rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or
managing ecosystem services Beyond the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 1061305ndash1312Carpenter SR C Folke M Scheffer and
F Westley 2009b Resilience Accounting or the
noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13
Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998
Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
harvesting o stochastic spatial resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 561ndash18
Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
Sea Change Report of the First International
Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3
UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)
Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
Letters 5361ndash366
Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands
marine reserve network Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
eries Nature 4551044ndash1045
Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
Series 38433ndash46
Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1115
Oceanography June 2010 125
With ITQ
Without ITQ
Number of
ITQ Fisheries
Year
C
o l l a p s e d
I T
Q s I m p l e m e n t e d
0
10
20
30
100
75
50
25
0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Catch Shares
Catch shares provide an alternative
to traditional fishery management by
incorporating new understanding rom
social and economic sciences Instead
o individual commercial fishermenbeing incentivized by the ldquorace to fishrdquo
to outcompete others rights-based
fisheriesrsquo reorms offer an alternative
solution (Hilborn et al 2005) In lieu
o industry-wide quotas fishermen are
allocated individual quotas reerred
to as ldquocatch sharesrdquo o the total allow-
able catch and the goal is to provide
fishermen and communities with a
secure asset in order to create steward-ship incentives (Costello et al 2008)
Catch shares thus align economic and
conservation incentives Tey also hold
fishermen accountable or adhering
to the rules
Te concept o catch shares
pioneered in Australia New Zealand
and Iceland has now been implemented
or hundreds o fisheries throughout
the world Effectiveness o catch shares
was documented in a global analysis o
over 11000 fisheries Results indicated
that implementation o catch shares can
halt and even reverse trends toward
widespread fishery collapse (Figure 7
Costello et al 2008 Heal and Schlenker
2008) Tis evidence suggests that catch
shares offer a promising tool or sustain-
able fisheries management
o date 12 fisheries in the United
States have adopted this management
approach Te results have been impres-
sive sustainable fisheries improved
economic perormance o the fishery
decreased environmental impact and
increased saety at sea For example in
Alaskarsquos halibut (Figure 3c) and sablefish
fisheries the length o the fishing season
was extended rom less than a week to
eight months per year bycatch dropped
by 80 and saety improved sharply
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
In the Gul o Mexicorsquos red snapperfishery commercial overfishing ended
or the first time in decades fishermen
are receiving higher dockside prices
or their catch and reducing costs as
they are able to better plan their trips
and discards have decreased by 70
(Redstone Strategy Group LLC and
Environmental Deense Fund 2007)
Catch shares are not necessarily suitable
or every fishery but they appear to holdpromise or many
Future Possible ools
Other tools seem ripe or development
but do not yet exist One is a nutrient-
trading scheme to decrease the flow o
excess nutrients rom agricultural and
livestock areas into coastal waters Dead
zones (areas o low oxygen) in coastal
oceans have spread exponentially since
the 1960s as a result o nutrient runoff
due to changes in agricultural and land-use practices dead zones now occur
over a total area o 245000 km2 (Diaz
and Rosenberg 2008) Fertilizer use in
the Mississippi River watershed which
drains 41 o the continental United
States leads to a severe seasonal dead
zone in the Gul o Mexico that extends
across 20000 km2 (Rabalais et al 2002)
One proposed approach or combating
excess nitrogen input might be the estab-lishment o cap-and-trade policy or
nitrogen where a limit would be set on
nitrogen input or each region (Socolow
1999) with regions able to trade quotas
A similar approach was successully used
by the Environmental Protection Agency
Figure 7 Percentage of fisheries collapsed (left y-axis) without (solid line) and with
(dotted line) catch share management using the Worm et al (2006) collapse threshold
of 10 of historical maximum (modified from Costello et al 2008) Individual trans-
ferable quotas (IQs) are a form of catch shares Te number of catch share fisheries
increases through time (right y-axis and dashed line) Used with permission from the
American Association for the Advancement of Science
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1215
Oceanography Vol23 No2126
under the Acid Rain Program to cap
emissions o sulur dioxide to reduce the
occurrence o acid rain Tis program
was so effective that sulur dioxide
reductions were achieved at significantly
lower costs and at much aster rates thanoriginally estimated
Another potentially useul tool would
involve better analytical methods or
detecting an approaching ecological
threshold or tipping point in time to
avert potential disaster (eg a fishery
collapse) Biggs et al (2009) provide
an example o such an early-warning
indicator Te lack o relevant long-term
data sets may present considerable chal-lenges in utilizing these tools thereore
efforts to urther develop them will need
to occur in parallel with (and should
inorm the development o) improved
monitoring efforts In addition the
utility o such indicators will rest upon
the adaptive capacity o management to
avert the shifmdashboth the ability o the
management regime to respond rapidly
and the ability to control the appropriate
drivers o change (Carpenter and Brock
2008 Biggs et al 2009)
None o the above tools offers a
panacea but each provides useul
approaches that build on existing
understanding rom both natural
and social sciences Maintaining the
suite o ecosystem services requires
protecting the unctioning o ecosys-
tems Integrated ecosystem assessments
that elucidate how the different social
and natural components interact provide
a decision-making ramework Place-based ecosystem-based and adaptive
management approaches are essential
New tools to acilitate understanding
o and decisions about tradeoffs will
be key In short effective management
o coastal and marine ecosystems will
require orward-thinking holistic and
ecosystem-based approaches that involve
users managers and scientific experts
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Continuing to educate and engage
citizens provide inormation to guide
decision making and develop and
implement new tools and approaches
based on the more holistic under-
standing described above will undoubt-
edly bring significant benefits For those
approaches to be maximally effective
additional inormation about ecosystem
and human patterns and processes
is needed such as basic patterns o
biodiversity understanding the scales
over which key ecosystem processes
operate socioeconomic inormation at
relevant scales methods or identiying
thresholds and approaches or designing
resilient institutions and manage-
ment structures Tis will also require
significant advances in ecosystem-
based science ecosystem services and
resilience rom a coupled humanndashnatural
system perspectiveIn addition inormation is not always
available at the relevant spatial scale or
management For example the majority
o climate change scenarios have been
developed or the global scale but most
o the impacts will be elt at local to
regional scales Tis mismatch o scales
makes it difficult or managers to incor-
porate climate inormation into their
planning processes Similarly effectivesustainable management o large-scale
resources (eg large marine ecosystems)
requires collaboration among interna-
tional national regional state and local
levels which creates challenges (Ostrom
et al 1999) Te need to address
problems at the local to regional scale
associated with shared global resources
is increasing Globalization is occur-
ring throughout many o our coupled
human-natural systems leading to
increased connectedness with both posi-
tive and negative results (Young et al
2006) A diversity o scales is necessary
or effective resilient management by
building on local and regional institu-
tions to ocus on global problems the
likelihood o success can be increased
(Ostrom et al 1999) Te ocus on
understanding impacts o climate change
on regions (US Global Change Research
Program 2009) is leading to increased
attention towards the ability o climate
models to resolve regional scales
Both climate change and ocean acidi-
fication are likely to transorm coastal
and ocean species ecosystems and
ecosystem services Priority should be
ldquoOUR FUURE DEPENDS UPON MAINAINING
HEALHY OCEAN AND COASAL ECOSYSEMS AND
HEALHY HUMAN COMMUNIIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1315
Oceanography June 2010 127
given to understanding the likely impacts
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion as well as ways to ameliorate those
impacts Given the rapid pace at which
ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by
doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict
the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)
Even though todayrsquos challenges are
already substantial climate change and
ocean acidification will interact with
and exacerbate the other drivers o
change Hence to be relevant and useul
management and policy must ocus on
tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural
systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-
sible Likely keys to success include the
ollowing approaches
bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such
as extinctions)
bull Managing or resilience
bull Managing with the expectation
o surprises
bull Creating flexible institutions with
capacity to adapt rapidly
bull Preserving as much biodiversity
(genetic species and habitat)
as possible
bull Developing rules o thumb or
managers in lieu o precise targets
bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors
over which there is more immediate
control
bull Sharing inormation and lessons via
learning networks
bull Investing effort in scientific research
to provide knowledge or the
above strategies
bull Supporting monitoring and
analysis to guide management and
policy decisions
In short these strategies all into two
categories (1) making better use o
existing inormation and (2) acquiring
new knowledge that would enhance
more sustainable practices and poli-
cies Incorporating climate change
and ocean acidification adaptation
strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way
to integrate a number o the above-
mentioned approaches
CONCLUDING REMARK S
Our uture depends upon maintaining
healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems
and healthy human communities Both
are in flux and each is coupled to the
other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide
a ocus or understanding policy and
management Awareness that natural
systems can undergo rapid change once
a tipping point is reached lends urgency
to the need or embracing novel tools
and approaches scaling up their use
and creating new knowledge inorma-
tion and tools
Global threats to our coastal
and marine ecosystems are rapidly
increasing We are currently operating
in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which
human activities have driven global
environmental change to a point that
has never beore been observed (Steffen
et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining
our natural resources are being depleted
and habitats are being destroyed Along
with these changes come the losses o
valuable ecosystem services on which
humans depend
In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-
tems social systems can also undergo
rapid change once a tipping point is
reached Knowledge that rapid soci-
etal shifs occur can provide hope
that successes in some places can be
quickly adopted and implemented Te
plethora o new advances and effective
tools successes at the local level and
engagement o citizens businesses and
scientists around the world provide
impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in
transitioning to more sustainable prac-
tices and policies
Priority actions include educating
citizens and policymakers about the
benefits o new approaches strength-
ening interdisciplinary approaches to
problem solving reducing the stres-
sors over which we have direct control
(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o
greenhouse gases to slow down the rates
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion protecting as much biodiversity as
possible and managing or ecosystem
resilience Holistic strategies or
engaging stakeholders and or preserving
or restoring ecosystem unctioning
and resilience are critical to success
Momentum is building inormed by
scientific advances and public involve-
ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo
ACKNOWLEDGEMENS
We would like to thank the National
Academies Ocean Studies Board
particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch
Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or
organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture
the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o
Natural History or hosting the event
and Senator John Kerry or providing
a dynamic introduction to the lecture
Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture
sponsors or their generous support
Logistical support rom Frank Parker
and figure design assistance rom Mike
Walker are also greatly appreciated
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
REFERENCESAllison GW J Lubchenco and MH Carr 1998
Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
or marine conservation Ecological Applications
8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
Resilience for Complexity and Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
UK 416 pp
Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
urning back rom the brink Detecting and
impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America 106826ndash831
Carpenter SR and WA Brock 2008 Adaptive
capacity and traps Ecology and Society 13(2)40
Carpenter SR and C Folke 2006 Ecology
or transormation rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or
managing ecosystem services Beyond the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 1061305ndash1312Carpenter SR C Folke M Scheffer and
F Westley 2009b Resilience Accounting or the
noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13
Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998
Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
harvesting o stochastic spatial resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 561ndash18
Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
Sea Change Report of the First International
Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3
UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)
Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
Letters 5361ndash366
Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands
marine reserve network Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
eries Nature 4551044ndash1045
Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
Series 38433ndash46
Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1215
Oceanography Vol23 No2126
under the Acid Rain Program to cap
emissions o sulur dioxide to reduce the
occurrence o acid rain Tis program
was so effective that sulur dioxide
reductions were achieved at significantly
lower costs and at much aster rates thanoriginally estimated
Another potentially useul tool would
involve better analytical methods or
detecting an approaching ecological
threshold or tipping point in time to
avert potential disaster (eg a fishery
collapse) Biggs et al (2009) provide
an example o such an early-warning
indicator Te lack o relevant long-term
data sets may present considerable chal-lenges in utilizing these tools thereore
efforts to urther develop them will need
to occur in parallel with (and should
inorm the development o) improved
monitoring efforts In addition the
utility o such indicators will rest upon
the adaptive capacity o management to
avert the shifmdashboth the ability o the
management regime to respond rapidly
and the ability to control the appropriate
drivers o change (Carpenter and Brock
2008 Biggs et al 2009)
None o the above tools offers a
panacea but each provides useul
approaches that build on existing
understanding rom both natural
and social sciences Maintaining the
suite o ecosystem services requires
protecting the unctioning o ecosys-
tems Integrated ecosystem assessments
that elucidate how the different social
and natural components interact provide
a decision-making ramework Place-based ecosystem-based and adaptive
management approaches are essential
New tools to acilitate understanding
o and decisions about tradeoffs will
be key In short effective management
o coastal and marine ecosystems will
require orward-thinking holistic and
ecosystem-based approaches that involve
users managers and scientific experts
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Continuing to educate and engage
citizens provide inormation to guide
decision making and develop and
implement new tools and approaches
based on the more holistic under-
standing described above will undoubt-
edly bring significant benefits For those
approaches to be maximally effective
additional inormation about ecosystem
and human patterns and processes
is needed such as basic patterns o
biodiversity understanding the scales
over which key ecosystem processes
operate socioeconomic inormation at
relevant scales methods or identiying
thresholds and approaches or designing
resilient institutions and manage-
ment structures Tis will also require
significant advances in ecosystem-
based science ecosystem services and
resilience rom a coupled humanndashnatural
system perspectiveIn addition inormation is not always
available at the relevant spatial scale or
management For example the majority
o climate change scenarios have been
developed or the global scale but most
o the impacts will be elt at local to
regional scales Tis mismatch o scales
makes it difficult or managers to incor-
porate climate inormation into their
planning processes Similarly effectivesustainable management o large-scale
resources (eg large marine ecosystems)
requires collaboration among interna-
tional national regional state and local
levels which creates challenges (Ostrom
et al 1999) Te need to address
problems at the local to regional scale
associated with shared global resources
is increasing Globalization is occur-
ring throughout many o our coupled
human-natural systems leading to
increased connectedness with both posi-
tive and negative results (Young et al
2006) A diversity o scales is necessary
or effective resilient management by
building on local and regional institu-
tions to ocus on global problems the
likelihood o success can be increased
(Ostrom et al 1999) Te ocus on
understanding impacts o climate change
on regions (US Global Change Research
Program 2009) is leading to increased
attention towards the ability o climate
models to resolve regional scales
Both climate change and ocean acidi-
fication are likely to transorm coastal
and ocean species ecosystems and
ecosystem services Priority should be
ldquoOUR FUURE DEPENDS UPON MAINAINING
HEALHY OCEAN AND COASAL ECOSYSEMS AND
HEALHY HUMAN COMMUNIIES
rdquo
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1315
Oceanography June 2010 127
given to understanding the likely impacts
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion as well as ways to ameliorate those
impacts Given the rapid pace at which
ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by
doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict
the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)
Even though todayrsquos challenges are
already substantial climate change and
ocean acidification will interact with
and exacerbate the other drivers o
change Hence to be relevant and useul
management and policy must ocus on
tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural
systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-
sible Likely keys to success include the
ollowing approaches
bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such
as extinctions)
bull Managing or resilience
bull Managing with the expectation
o surprises
bull Creating flexible institutions with
capacity to adapt rapidly
bull Preserving as much biodiversity
(genetic species and habitat)
as possible
bull Developing rules o thumb or
managers in lieu o precise targets
bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors
over which there is more immediate
control
bull Sharing inormation and lessons via
learning networks
bull Investing effort in scientific research
to provide knowledge or the
above strategies
bull Supporting monitoring and
analysis to guide management and
policy decisions
In short these strategies all into two
categories (1) making better use o
existing inormation and (2) acquiring
new knowledge that would enhance
more sustainable practices and poli-
cies Incorporating climate change
and ocean acidification adaptation
strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way
to integrate a number o the above-
mentioned approaches
CONCLUDING REMARK S
Our uture depends upon maintaining
healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems
and healthy human communities Both
are in flux and each is coupled to the
other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide
a ocus or understanding policy and
management Awareness that natural
systems can undergo rapid change once
a tipping point is reached lends urgency
to the need or embracing novel tools
and approaches scaling up their use
and creating new knowledge inorma-
tion and tools
Global threats to our coastal
and marine ecosystems are rapidly
increasing We are currently operating
in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which
human activities have driven global
environmental change to a point that
has never beore been observed (Steffen
et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining
our natural resources are being depleted
and habitats are being destroyed Along
with these changes come the losses o
valuable ecosystem services on which
humans depend
In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-
tems social systems can also undergo
rapid change once a tipping point is
reached Knowledge that rapid soci-
etal shifs occur can provide hope
that successes in some places can be
quickly adopted and implemented Te
plethora o new advances and effective
tools successes at the local level and
engagement o citizens businesses and
scientists around the world provide
impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in
transitioning to more sustainable prac-
tices and policies
Priority actions include educating
citizens and policymakers about the
benefits o new approaches strength-
ening interdisciplinary approaches to
problem solving reducing the stres-
sors over which we have direct control
(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o
greenhouse gases to slow down the rates
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion protecting as much biodiversity as
possible and managing or ecosystem
resilience Holistic strategies or
engaging stakeholders and or preserving
or restoring ecosystem unctioning
and resilience are critical to success
Momentum is building inormed by
scientific advances and public involve-
ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo
ACKNOWLEDGEMENS
We would like to thank the National
Academies Ocean Studies Board
particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch
Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or
organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture
the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o
Natural History or hosting the event
and Senator John Kerry or providing
a dynamic introduction to the lecture
Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture
sponsors or their generous support
Logistical support rom Frank Parker
and figure design assistance rom Mike
Walker are also greatly appreciated
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
REFERENCESAllison GW J Lubchenco and MH Carr 1998
Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
or marine conservation Ecological Applications
8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
Resilience for Complexity and Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
UK 416 pp
Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
urning back rom the brink Detecting and
impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America 106826ndash831
Carpenter SR and WA Brock 2008 Adaptive
capacity and traps Ecology and Society 13(2)40
Carpenter SR and C Folke 2006 Ecology
or transormation rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or
managing ecosystem services Beyond the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 1061305ndash1312Carpenter SR C Folke M Scheffer and
F Westley 2009b Resilience Accounting or the
noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13
Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998
Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
harvesting o stochastic spatial resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 561ndash18
Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
Sea Change Report of the First International
Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3
UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)
Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
Letters 5361ndash366
Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands
marine reserve network Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
eries Nature 4551044ndash1045
Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
Series 38433ndash46
Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1315
Oceanography June 2010 127
given to understanding the likely impacts
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion as well as ways to ameliorate those
impacts Given the rapid pace at which
ecosystems are changing ldquolearning by
doingrdquo becomes more difficult becausepast lessons no longer accurately predict
the uture (Ostrom et al 1999)
Even though todayrsquos challenges are
already substantial climate change and
ocean acidification will interact with
and exacerbate the other drivers o
change Hence to be relevant and useul
management and policy must ocus on
tomorrowrsquos coupled human-natural
systems not todayrsquos or yesterdayrsquosDoing so is not easy but not impos-
sible Likely keys to success include the
ollowing approaches
bull Avoiding irreversible changes (such
as extinctions)
bull Managing or resilience
bull Managing with the expectation
o surprises
bull Creating flexible institutions with
capacity to adapt rapidly
bull Preserving as much biodiversity
(genetic species and habitat)
as possible
bull Developing rules o thumb or
managers in lieu o precise targets
bull Minimizing impacts rom stressors
over which there is more immediate
control
bull Sharing inormation and lessons via
learning networks
bull Investing effort in scientific research
to provide knowledge or the
above strategies
bull Supporting monitoring and
analysis to guide management and
policy decisions
In short these strategies all into two
categories (1) making better use o
existing inormation and (2) acquiring
new knowledge that would enhance
more sustainable practices and poli-
cies Incorporating climate change
and ocean acidification adaptation
strategies into management andpolicy decisions provides a useul way
to integrate a number o the above-
mentioned approaches
CONCLUDING REMARK S
Our uture depends upon maintaining
healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems
and healthy human communities Both
are in flux and each is coupled to the
other Ecosystem services link ecosys-tems to human well-being and provide
a ocus or understanding policy and
management Awareness that natural
systems can undergo rapid change once
a tipping point is reached lends urgency
to the need or embracing novel tools
and approaches scaling up their use
and creating new knowledge inorma-
tion and tools
Global threats to our coastal
and marine ecosystems are rapidly
increasing We are currently operating
in a ldquono analoguerdquo state in which
human activities have driven global
environmental change to a point that
has never beore been observed (Steffen
et al 2004) Biodiversity is declining
our natural resources are being depleted
and habitats are being destroyed Along
with these changes come the losses o
valuable ecosystem services on which
humans depend
In addition to rapid shifs in ecosys-
tems social systems can also undergo
rapid change once a tipping point is
reached Knowledge that rapid soci-
etal shifs occur can provide hope
that successes in some places can be
quickly adopted and implemented Te
plethora o new advances and effective
tools successes at the local level and
engagement o citizens businesses and
scientists around the world provide
impetus or urther engagement andhope that these efforts will succeed in
transitioning to more sustainable prac-
tices and policies
Priority actions include educating
citizens and policymakers about the
benefits o new approaches strength-
ening interdisciplinary approaches to
problem solving reducing the stres-
sors over which we have direct control
(eg fisheries management pollutioninvasive species) reducing emission o
greenhouse gases to slow down the rates
o climate change and ocean acidifica-
tion protecting as much biodiversity as
possible and managing or ecosystem
resilience Holistic strategies or
engaging stakeholders and or preserving
or restoring ecosystem unctioning
and resilience are critical to success
Momentum is building inormed by
scientific advances and public involve-
ment Itrsquos time to ldquoseas the dayrdquo
ACKNOWLEDGEMENS
We would like to thank the National
Academies Ocean Studies Board
particularly Jodi Bostrom Don Boesch
Pamela Lewis and Susan Roberts or
organizing the Roger Revelle Lecture
the Smithsonianrsquos National Museum o
Natural History or hosting the event
and Senator John Kerry or providing
a dynamic introduction to the lecture
Tanks to the Roger Revelle Lecture
sponsors or their generous support
Logistical support rom Frank Parker
and figure design assistance rom Mike
Walker are also greatly appreciated
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
REFERENCESAllison GW J Lubchenco and MH Carr 1998
Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
or marine conservation Ecological Applications
8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
Resilience for Complexity and Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
UK 416 pp
Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
urning back rom the brink Detecting and
impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America 106826ndash831
Carpenter SR and WA Brock 2008 Adaptive
capacity and traps Ecology and Society 13(2)40
Carpenter SR and C Folke 2006 Ecology
or transormation rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or
managing ecosystem services Beyond the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 1061305ndash1312Carpenter SR C Folke M Scheffer and
F Westley 2009b Resilience Accounting or the
noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13
Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998
Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
harvesting o stochastic spatial resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 561ndash18
Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
Sea Change Report of the First International
Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3
UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)
Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
Letters 5361ndash366
Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands
marine reserve network Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
eries Nature 4551044ndash1045
Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
Series 38433ndash46
Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1415
Oceanography Vol23 No2128
REFERENCESAllison GW J Lubchenco and MH Carr 1998
Marine reserves are necessary but not sufficient
or marine conservation Ecological Applications
8(1)S79ndashS92
Babcock RC N Shears AC Alcala
NS Barrett GJ Edgar KD Lafferty
R McClanahan and GR Russ In press
Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal
differential rates o change in direct and indirect
effects Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Baskett ML SA Levin SD Gaines and
J Dushoff 2005 Marine reserve design and the
evolution o size at maturation in harvested fish
Ecological Applications 15(3)882ndash901
Berkes F J Colding and C Folke eds 2008
Navigating Social-Ecological Systems Building
Resilience for Complexity and Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
UK 416 pp
Biggs R SR Carpenter and WA Brock 2009
urning back rom the brink Detecting and
impending regime shif in time to avert itProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America 106826ndash831
Carpenter SR and WA Brock 2008 Adaptive
capacity and traps Ecology and Society 13(2)40
Carpenter SR and C Folke 2006 Ecology
or transormation rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(6)309ndash315
Carpenter SR HA Mooney J Agard
D Capistrano RS DeFries S Diacuteaz Dietz
AK Duraiappah A Oteng-Yeboah
HM Pereira and others 2009a Science or
managing ecosystem services Beyond the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 1061305ndash1312Carpenter SR C Folke M Scheffer and
F Westley 2009b Resilience Accounting or the
noncomputable Ecology and Society 14(1)13
Chichilnisky G and G Heal 1998
Economic returns rom the biosphere
Nature 391629ndash630
Costello C and S Polasky 2008 Optimal
harvesting o stochastic spatial resources
Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management 561ndash18
Costello C SD Gaines and J Lynham 2008
Can catch shares prevent fisheries collapse
Science 3211678ndash1681
Costello C A Rassweiler D Siegel G De Leo
F Micheli and A Rosenberg In press Te value o spatial inormation in MPA network
design Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Crowder L and E Norse 2008 Essential
ecological insights or marine ecosystem-based
management and marine spatial planning
Marine Policy 32772ndash778
Daily GC Soumlderqvist S Aniyar K Arrow
P Dasgupta PR Ehrlich C Folke A Jansson
B-O Jansson N Kautsky and others 2000
Te value o nature and the nature o value
Science 289395ndash396
Dasgupta P S Levin and J Lubchenco 2000
Economic pathways to ecological sustainability
Bioscience 50(4)339ndash345
Diaz RJ and R Rosenberg 2008 Spreading deadzones and consequences or marine ecosystems
Science 321926ndash929
Dietz E Ostrom and PC Stern 2003
Te struggle to govern the commons
Science 3021907ndash1912
Douvere F 2008 Te importance o marine spatial
planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use
management Marine Policy 32762ndash771
Ehler C and F Douvere 2007 Visions for a
Sea Change Report of the First International
Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
and Man and the Biosphere Programme IOC
Manual and Guides 46 ICAM Dossier 3
UNESCO Paris France 84 pp Availableonline at httpwwwunesco-ioc-marinespbe
uploadsdocumentenbank322a25624cb940dc
70d0b3b510de24pd (accessed April 6 2010)
Gaines SD SE Lester K Grorud-Colvert
C Costello and R Pollnac In press a Te
evolving science o marine reserves New
developments and emerging research rontiers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Gaines SD C White MH Carr and
SR Palumbi In press b Designing marine
reserve networks or both conservation and
fisheries management Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of AmericaGrorud-Colvert K SE Lester S Airameacute
E Neeley and SD Gaines In press
Communicating marine reserve science to
diverse audiences Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Halpern BS 2003 Te impact o marine reserves
Do reserves work and does reserve size matter
Ecological Applications 13(1)S117ndashS137
Halpern BS and RR Warner 2002 Marine
reserves have rapid and lasting effects Ecology
Letters 5361ndash366
Halpern BS SE Lester and KL McLeod In
press Placing marine protected areas onto
the ecosystem-based management seascape
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America
Hamilton SL JE Caselle D Malone and
MH Carr In press Incorporating biogeog-
raphy into evaluations o the Channel Islands
marine reserve network Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Heal G GC Daily PR Ehrlich J Salzman
C Boggs J Hellmann and J Hughes 2001
Protecting natural capital through ecosystem
service districts Stanford Environmental Law
Journal 20333ndash364
Heal G and W Schlenker 2008 Sustainable fish-
eries Nature 4551044ndash1045
Hilborn R JM Orensanz and AM Parma
2005 Institutions incentives and the uture ofisheries Philosophical ransactions of the Royal
Society B 36047ndash57
Janssen MA O Bodin JM Anderies
Elmqvist H Ernstson RRJ McAllister
P Olsson and P Ryan 2006 oward a network
perspective o the study o resilience in social-
ecological systems Ecology and Society 11(1)15
Kathiresan K and N Rajendran 2005 Coastal
mangrove orests mitigated tsunami Estuarine
Coastal and Shelf Science 65601ndash606
Kinzig AP D Starrett K Arrow S Aniyar
B Bolin P Dasgupta P Ehrlich C Folke
M Hanemann G Heal and others 2003
Coping with uncertainty A call or a new
science-policy orum Ambio 32(5)330ndash335Leslie HM and AP Kinzig 2009 Resilience
science Chapter 4 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Lester SE BS Halpern K Grorud-Colvert
J Lubchenco BI Ruttenberg SD Gaines
S Airameacute and RR Warner 2009 Biological
effects within no-take marine reserves
A global synthesis Marine Ecology Progress
Series 38433ndash46
Levin SA 1998 Ecosystems and the
biosphere as complex adaptive systems
Ecosystems 1431ndash436
Levin SA 1999 Fragile Dominion Complexity
and the Commons Perseus PublishingCambridge MA 272 pp
Levin SA and J Lubchenco 2008 Resilience
robustness and marine ecosystem-based
management Bioscience 58(1)27ndash32
Liu J Dietz SR Carpenter M Alberti
C Folke E Moran AN Pell P Deadman
Kratz J Lubchenco and others 2007
Complexity o coupled human and natural
systems Science 3171513ndash1516
Love MS P Morris M McCrae and R Collins
1990 Lie history aspects o 19 rockfish species
(Scorpaenidae Sebastes) rom the southern
Caliornia bight NOAA echnical Report
NMFS 87
Lubchenco J 1998 Entering the century o the
environment A new social contract or science
Science 279491ndash497
Lubchenco J SR Palumbi SD Gaines and
S Andelman 2003 Plugging a hole in the
ocean Te emerging science o marine reserves
Ecological Applications 13(1)S3ndashS7
McCook LJ Ayling M Cappo JH Choat
RD Evans DM DeFreitas M Heupel
P Hughes GP Jones B Mapstone and
others In press Adaptive management o
the Great Barrier Ree A globally significant
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316
8142019 The interconnected Biosphere- Science at the oceanrsquos tipping Points
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-interconnected-biosphere-science-at-the-oceans-tipping-points 1515
demonstration o the benefits o networks o
marine reserves Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009a Ecosystem-
Based Management for the Oceans Island Press
Washington DC 392 pp
McLeod K and H Leslie eds 2009b Why
ecosystem-based management Chapter 1 inEcosystem-Based Management for the Oceans
KM McLeod and HL Leslie eds Island Press
Washington DC
McLeod K J Lubchenco SR Palumbi and
AA Rosenberg 2005 Scientific Consensus
Statement on Marine Ecosystem-Based
Management Signed by 221 academic scientists
and policy experts with relevant expertise and
published by the Communication Partnership
or Science and the Sea 21 pp Available online
at httpwwwcompassonlineorgpd_files
EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12pd (accessed
March 28 2010)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being SynthesisIsland Press Washington DC
National Research Council 1999 Our Common
Journey National Academy Press Washington
DC 384 pp
National Research Council 2008 Increasing
Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts
A Priority for the 21st Century National
Academies Press Washington DC 156 pp
Nelson E G Mendoza J Regetz S Polasky
H allis DR Cameron KMA Chan
GC Daily J Goldstein PM Kareiva and
others 2009 Modeling multiple ecosystem
services biodiversity conservation
commodity production and tradeoffs at
landscape scales Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment 7(1)4ndash11
Ostrom E 2009 A general ramework or
analyzing sustainability o social-ecological
systems Science 325419ndash422
Ostrom E J Burger CB Field RB Norgaard
and D Policansky 1999 Revisiting the
commons Local lessons global challenges
Science 284278ndash282
Partnership or Interdisciplinary Studies o Coastal
Oceans 2007 Te Science of Marine Reserves
2nd ed 21 pp Available online at httpwww
piscoweborgoutreachpubsreserves (accessed
February 15 2010)
Pelc RA RR Warner SD Gaines and CB Paris
In press Detecting larval export rom marine
reserves Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America
Pew Oceans Commission 2003 Americarsquos Living
Oceans Charting a Course for Sea Change Pew
Oceans Commission Arlington VA Available
online at httpwwwpewtrustsorgour_work_
detailaspxid=130 (accessed April 5 2010)
Pollnac R P Christie JE Cinner Dalton
M Daw GE Forrester NAJ Graham and
R McClanahan In press Marine reserves as
linked social-ecological systems Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America
Pomeroy R and F Douvere 2008 Te engage-
ment o stakeholders in the marine spatial plan-
ning process Marine Policy 32816ndash822
Rabalais NN RE urner and D Scavia
2002 Beyond science into policy Gul o
Mexico hypoxia and the Mississippi RiverBioscience 52(2)129ndash142
Redstone Strategy Group LLC and Environmental
Deense Fund 2007 Assessing the Potential
for LAPPs in US Fisheries Available
online at httpredstonestrategycom
documents2007-03-2620Assessing20
the20Potential20or20LAPPs20in20
US20Fisheriespd (accessed April 12 2010)
Roberts CM JA Bohnsack F Gell
JP Hawkins and R Goodridge 2001 Effects
o marine reserves on adjacent fisheries
Science 2941920ndash1923
Rosenberg AA and KL McLeod 2005
Implementing ecosystem-based approaches
to management or the conservation oecosystem services Marine Ecology Progress
Series 300270ndash274
Rosenberg AA and PA Sandier 2009 What do
managers need Chapter 2 in Ecosystem-Based
Management for the Oceans KM McLeod and
HL Leslie eds Island Press Washington DC
Ruckelshaus M and AD Guerry 2009 Valuing
marine ecosystems Marine Scientist 2626ndash29
Schellnhuber HJ PJ Crutzen WC Clark
M Claussen and H Held 2004 Earth System
Analysis for Sustainability Report on the 91st
Dahlem Workshop MI Press Cambridge
MA 468 pp
Smith MD J Lynham JN Sanchirico and
JA Wilson In press Political economy omarine reserves Understanding the role o
opportunity costs Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America
Socolow RH 1999 Nitrogen management and
the uture o ood Lessons rom the manage-
ment o energy and carbon Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 966001ndash6008
Steffen W A Sanderson P yson J Jaumlger
P Matson B Moore F Oldfield K Richardson
F Oldfield H-J Schellnhuber BL urner II
and RJ Wasson 2004 Global Change and
the Earth System A Planet Under Pressure
Springer-Verlag New York NY 332 pp
allis HM and P Kareiva 2006 Shaping
global environmental decisions using socio-
ecological models rends in Ecology and
Evolution 21(10)562ndash568
allis H and S Polasky 2009 Mapping and
valuing ecosystem services as an approach or
conservation and natural-resource manage-
ment Annals of the New York Academy of
Science 1162265ndash283
allis H P Kareiva M Marvier and A Chang
2008 An ecosystem services ramework to
support both practical conservation and
economic development Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America 105(28)9457ndash9464
urner RK and GC Daily 2008 Te ecosystem
services ramework and natural capital
conservation Environmental and ResourceEconomics 39(1)25ndash35
United Nations Environment Programme
2006 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being A Synthesis Report Based
on Findings of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment United Nations Environment
Programme Nairobi Kenya 64 pp
US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004 An Ocean
Blueprint for the 21st Century US Commission
on Ocean Policy Washington DC Available
online at httpoceancommissiongov
documentsull_color_rpt000_ocean_ull_
reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
US Global Change Research Program 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates Cambridge University Press New York
NY Available online at httpdownloads
globalchangegovusimpactspdsclimate-
impacts-reportpd (accessed April 5 2010)
Vitousek PM HA Mooney J Lubchenco and
JM Melillo 1997 Human domination o
Earthrsquos ecosystems Science 277494ndash499
Walker B and D Salt 2006 Resilience Tinking
Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing
World Island Press Washington DC 192 pp
Wood LJ L Fish J Laughren and D Pauly
2008 Assessing progress towards global marine
protection targets Shortalls in inormation and
action Oryx 42340ndash351
Worm B EB Barbier N Beaumont JE DuffyC Folke BS Halpern JBC Jackson
HK Lotze F Micheli SR Palumbi and others
2006 Impacts o biodiversity loss on ocean
ecosystem services Science 314787ndash790
Young OR F Berkhout GC Gallopin
MA Janssen E Ostrom and S van der Leeuw
2006 Te globalization o socio-ecological
systems An agenda or scientific research
Global Environmental Change 16304ndash316