THE IMPORTANCE OF STATISTICS ON TRADE IN SERVICES by Ramonette B. Serafica Australia Indonesia...

Australia Indonesia Partnership for Economic Governance

THE IMPORTANCE OF STATISTICS ON TRADE IN SERVICES

by Ramonette B. Serafica



Outline

• Backgroundo Basic concepts and trends

• Various user needs for services statistics (trade and others)


What are services?


How important are services?

Source of data: http://data.worldbank.org/

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Services, Percent Share in GDP

High income HIC Low income LIC Lower middle income LMC

Upper middle income UMC World WLD

HIC

WLD

UMCLMC

LIC


What are its characteristics?

• Intangible• Non-storable• Variable• Proximity• Different ways to trade – four

modes of supply


How are services traded? Cross-border trade The service (1) , the consumer or his/her property (2), or the supplier (4) crosses the border Trade by foreign

affiliatesThe service is supplied through the establishment of commercial presence (3) in the host country


Trends in services trade

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

World trade in commercial services, total exports, 1980-2010USD billion and percentage

Commercial ServicesShare of Commercial Services in total exports (goods + services)

US

D b

illio

n

Source of data: http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm


Commercial Services (World)

Share of Transporta-

tion37%

Share of Travel28%

Share of Other Commercial

Services35%

1980

Share of Transportation

21%

Share of Travel26%

Share of Other Commercial

Services53%

2010

Source of data: http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm


Growing share of Asia in services trade

Source: Asian Development Outlook 2012 Update Services and Asia’s Future Growth (ADB 2012)


Mode 3 is significant

19861989

19921995

19982001

20042007

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Services Supplied by the US to Foreign Markets through Cross-Border Trade and through Affiliates

Through cross-border trade (U.S. exports)Through foreign affil-iates of U.S. com-panies

Year

Bil

lio

ns

of

do

llar

s

http://www.bea.gov/international/international_services.htm#summaryandother (Table A. Services Supplied to Foreign and U.S. Markets Through Cross-Border Trade and Through Affiliates)


Uses of data and statistics

– Policy analysis and formulation– Negotiations (trade &

investment)– Stakeholder engagement– Monitoring & Evaluation of

initiatives


Policy analysis and formulation

Example: Sector development• Trade performance (what if not a major

category in EBOPS? e.g. environmental services)

• Other indicators such as labor productivity, prices, quality, variety, and access

• Inter-sectoral linkages (backward & forward linkages)


Negotiations (trade & investment)

Example: Assessment of export and import interests across 160 services sub-sectors and 4 Modes of Supply (MOS)

• Priority sub-sectors and MOS to request MA/NT commitments

• Priority sectors for investment, technology transfer, capacity building/technical cooperation


Stakeholder engagement

Example: The contribution of foreign companies to the economy

• Domestic employment generated and compensation of employees

• Value-added • Purchases of local goods and services• R&D expenditures

14


M&E of initiatives

Example: Assessment of the effectiveness of initiatives for SME service exporters

• Determine baseline and set specific targets for increasing the number of service exporters

• Track and analyze growth of SME service exporters by sector, by destination

15

THANK YOU

THE IMPORTANCE OF STATISTICS ON TRADE IN SERVICES by Ramonette B. Serafica Australia Indonesia...

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