Global Climate Cycles, Global Warming and Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect
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The Human Component of the Global Carbon Cycle
Global Greenhouse Gas Information System Workshop15-16 October, 2008
California Institute of TechnologyPasadena, California, USA
Gregg Marland Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory
and
Tom Boden Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USAKhrystyna Hamal Lviv Polytechnic National University, UkraineMatthias Jonas International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria
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Anthropogenic C Emissions: Fossil Fuel
Updated fromRaupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al 2007, PNAS
1990 - 1999: 0.9% y-1
2000 - 2007: 3.5% y-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Fo
ssil
Fu
el E
mis
sio
n (
GtC
/y) Emissions
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
2007 Fossil Fuel: 8.5 Pg C[Total Anthrop.Emis.:8.5+1.5 = 10.0 Pg]
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atmospheric CO2
ocean
land
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
7.6
1.5
4.1
2.22.8
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux
(Pg
C y-1
)Si
nkSo
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
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CO2 Emissions from the United States
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2004
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Cumul Flux Growth Pop
D3D2IndiaChinaFSUD1JapanEUUSA
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Cumulative fraction of total fossil-fuel emissions - 2005
number of country cumulativecountries fraction
1 USA .2062 China .4033 Russia .4594 India .5095 Japan .5526 Germany .5807 Canada .6018 UK .6219 Iran .63810 Mexico .65520 Ukraine .79350 Belarus .941100 Moldova .992211 1.000
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Sources of US anthropogenic CO2 emissions - 2006
• Fossil fuel combustion 1537.5 Tg C• Non-energy use of fossil fuels 37.6• Iron and steel manufacture 13.4• Cement production 12.5• Gas flaring/venting/leakage 7.8• Other industrial processes 22.9
• Total 1631.7
From US EPA, 2008
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Sectoral sources of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion – USA - 2006
• Electric power generation 41.3%• Transport 32.9%• Industry 14.5%• Residential 5.8%• Commercial 3.7%• Agriculture 0.8%• US territories 1.0%
US EPA, 2008
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Carbon Emissions Per Capita
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Year
C Em
issi
ons
Meg
agra
m/p
erso
n
California
Wyoming
From T.J. Blasing
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6 9
From T.J. Blasing
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Vulcan project – CO2 from power plants
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Vulcan project – large industrial point sources
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Vulcan Project – US C02 emissions
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Carbon released directly by the US human population in 2000. Enhanced area represents carbon released in the metropolitan area of Chicago.
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020406080
100120140160
Jan-
81
Jan-
82
Jan-
83
Jan-
84
Jan-
85
Jan-
86
Jan-
87
Jan-
88
Jan-
89
Jan-
90
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
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Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04Car
bon
emis
sion
s (T
g)
Coal Oil Gas Total
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Jan-
81
Jan-
82
Jan-
83
Jan-
84
Jan-
85
Jan-
86
Jan-
87
Jan-
88
Jan-
89
Jan-
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Jan-
93
Jan-
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Jan-
95
Jan-
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Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Em
issi
ons
(mg/
pers
on-m
onth
)
Coal Oil Gas Total
U.S. Fossil-fuel Carbon Emissions by Month
TOTAL
PER CAPITA
From T.J. Blasing
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Monthly Average Carbon Emissions for Recent and Early Years
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Em
issio
ns (
Tg
-C)
_______________________________
↨
_______________________________
↨10 Tg
19 Tg1981-1985
2000-2004
Monthly 5-year Average Fossil-fuel Carbon Emissions for the U.S.
From T.J. Blasing
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Signal Analysis Under the Kyoto Protocol
Jonas and Nilsson (2009: Tab. 1)
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Signal Analysis Under the Kyoto Protocol
~ Risk
Undershooting U
CommittedLevel
Base YearLevel
x1
Timet1
Emissions
t2
x2
Jonas and Nilsson (2007: Fig. 11); modified
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CO2 Emissions from Austria
58 0
00,0
63 0
00,0
68 0
00,0
73 0
00,0
78 0
00,0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Year
Em
issio
ns (
Gg
)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
Austrian CO2 emissions initial estimates and recalculations of historic emissions in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2005. Data from: Austrian National Inventory Reports (2002-2007).
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3150
3250
3350
3450
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Em
iss
ion
s (
Tg
)
Initial emissions estimates
The most recent emissionestimates
CO2 emissions without LULUCF estimates.
Data from: European Community National Inventory Reports.
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1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
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Revisions of Global Total Emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
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Revisions of Global Total without China
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
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Revisions of Global Total Without……
Initial estimates to 2004 (absolute values)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
(%)
Global
Global w /o CHINA (Mainland) and USA
Global w /o CHINA (Mainland), USA, Canada
Global w /o CHINA (Mainland), USA, Canada, Algeria, United Arab Emirates
Global w /o CHINA (Mainland), USA, Canada, Algeria, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, India
Global w /o CHINA (Mainland), USA, Canada, Algeria, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, India, South Afr, Nigeria, Iran
Global w /o CHINA (Mainland), USA, Canada, Algeria, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, India, South Afr, Nigeria, Iran, Kuwait, USSR
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