The good, the bad and the ugly: Climate change’s potential impact on farmers in Africa
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Transcript of The good, the bad and the ugly: Climate change’s potential impact on farmers in Africa
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The good, the bad and the ugly: Climate change’s
potential impact on farmers in Africa
Global Landscapes ForumWarsaw, Poland
16 November 2013
Sepo [email protected]
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Scientific research has changed the
world Now it needs to
change itself
A SIMPLE idea underpins science:
“trust, but verify”
Only 14% of published papers
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Welcome to the Anthropocene!
50% increase (Btw 2000 and 2050)mostly in developing
countries
3.3 million deaths from
natural hazards in the 40 years
to 2010
Over 400,000 deaths from climate extremes since 2000 with 79% in developing countries
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Crop yield changes
Zinyengere , Crespo and Hachigonta., 2013
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Transforming Data into Information and Policy
• Uncertainties
• Evidence
• Modeling
• Limitations
• Uncertainty
• Interpretation
• Etc
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Climate information at a local scale
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Costing the Impacts of Climate Change
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Livelihood Vulnerability
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
THE HVI AND THE LIVELIHOOD CAPITAL ASSETS
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Household Vulnerability
Low vulnerability Moderate vulnerability High vulnerability
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Multi-Disciplinary approach
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Communicate climate science and impacts including
uncertainties
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Research for Impact
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www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Promote and support strategies for out-scaling proven technologies;
Develop practical research and innovation Integrate climate change into mainstream national
agricultural development policy and planning processes; Extension services (public and non-public) need
foundation training to acquire core proficiencies in CSA from management levels
Engage stakeholders when generating research evidence
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