The global market for oilmeals/cakes - DonauSoja
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2 nd International Danube Soya Congress - November 2013 "The global market for oilmeals/cakes - short and medium term outlook” Grace Maria Karumathy Trade and Markets Division FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE U.N. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 nd International Danube Soya Congress Augsburg, 25 th and 26 th November 2013 1
Transcript of The global market for oilmeals/cakes - DonauSoja
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"The global market for oilmeals/cakes
- short and medium term outlook”
Grace Maria Karumathy
Trade and Markets Division
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE U.N.
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2nd International Danube Soya Congress
Augsburg, 25th and 26th November 2013
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Outline of presentation
A. Short-term situation and outlook for oilseeds/meals (soybeans)
Price review
Fundamentals • Production and utilization
• Trade
• Uncertainties and risk factors
B. Medium-term projections for the oilseeds complex Background
Projections • Production and utilization
• Trade
Sources of uncertainty
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SELECTED UNCERTAINTIES/RISKS: Weather
• final outcome of US soy harvest
• final outcome other northern hemisphere producers
• SA crop: planting and growing conditions
Global supply pattern
• rising, strong market dependence on US crop until early 2104
• heavy reliance on South American supplies in second half of 13/14
Demand issues
• China import volume and national stock policies
• US Biodiesel target for 2014 – just announced
Other factors
• temporary slowdowns in US shipments (logistic bottlenecks)
• argentine farmers holding back sales
• exchange rate developments (especially in South America)
• crushing capacity Argentina, China
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B. MEDIUM-TERM PROJECTIONS FOR THE OILSEEDS COMPLEX
• joint OECD/FAO project
• covering agriculture as a whole
• major econometric modeling exercise
• produced annually
Main features
projections (not forecasts)
based on a comprehensive dynamic GE model as well as expert judgment
10-year horizon: 2013-2022
global coverage; consistent scenario for entire agricultural sector (including biofuels)
selected oilcrops (and derived products) only
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exogenous drivers:
macro-economic variables (GDP growth, PCE/GDP
deflators, exchange rates)
population growth
crude oil price (from USD 111 to 144)
demand elasticities
technology parameters (e.g. yield levels, extract. rates)
assumptions:
normal weather conditions
current policies/laws to remain in effect (…!)
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Sources of uncertainty
a. general
possibly slower expansion of crop areas
sustainability issues and health concerns
government responses to tighter supply and demand
situation (protecting consumers from higher prices) ->
market repercussions
geographical concentration of supply and demand, incl. at
trade level: strong dependence on few regions ->
increased vulnerability in case of shocks
b. concerning oilmeals
developing world: industrialization of livestock sector to
approach completion … optimization of feed rations to
begin
resistance to GMO (i.e EU) effects on trade pattern
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Thank you
Acknowledgements: - Peter Thoenes (Trade Economist)
- Marco Milo (Research Assistant)
: +39 06 57055427
: Viale Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Roma, Italy
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INFORMATION DISSEMINATION
FAO-Trade and Markets Division: conducts mainly normative work;
focus on knowledge-sharing & provision of global public goods
… access to FAO market S&O information via the WEB, dedicated mailing
lists, etc.
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http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-commodities/oilcrops/en/
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