The global future ahead: charting world scenarios
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Charting Global Future:Roads Beyond the Phase Barrier
Pavel LukshaSKOLKOVO Moscow School of Management /METAVER
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Starting as ‘education of the future’ community
charting our own ‘future of education’ up 2030
now one of leading Russian foresight groups with a unique and efficient technology
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GLOBAL CRISIS
FINANCIAL / ECONOMICAL
POLITICAL
RESOURCE
ENVIRONMENTAL
… AND ITS ROOTS
ETHICAL
HUMANITY / NATURE DISBALANCE
FUTURE ‘S INDIVIDUAL, NOT SHARED
LACK OF TRUST
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“We must continue to go into space for the future of humanity. I don't think we will survive another thousand years without escaping beyond our fragile planet.”
Steven Hawking, physicist
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NO MR HAWKING,IF WE ARE UNABLE TO COPE WITH EARTHLY MATTERS,THE SPACE WILL NOT SAVE US
WE WILL FAIL …
DISGRACEFULLY
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NOW
CYBERPUNK: (Instable) present
continuousscenario
APOCALYPSE: Phase catastrophe
scenario
GREEN COGNITIVITY: Phase transition
scenario
+20-30 years
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Can ‘Green Cognitivity’ scenario emerge?
We envisage three groups of trends that support this scenario – leading to a particular and unusual type of all-humanity transition beyond the phase barrier
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TREND GROUP 1: LIFE <-> NET
2011
2 Billion users
store 1 Zettabyte
<10% use 100+ Mbps
2020
5 Billion users
store 38 Zettabyte
>70% use 100+ Mbps
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TREND GROUP 2: PHYSICAL <-> VIRTUAL
Internet of Things
Augmented Realities
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TREND GROUP 3: INNER <-> OUTER
Body Extensions
Brain-ComputerConnections
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QUALITATIVE TRANSITION
Anthropo-structures with new quality of
TRUST
COLLABORATION
RESOURCE-SHARING
FUTURE-SHARING
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2012 – 2030s
2030s – 2050s
CHALLENGES BEYOND THE BARRIER
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY HUMAN-MACHINE
INTEGRATION IMMORTALITY …
CHALLENGES BEFORE THE BARRIER
MANAGING INCREASED COMPLEXITY
BARRIER-BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGIES
INTEGRATION …
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FORESIGHTWORLD 2045TO