THE GEORGE WASHINGTON BATTLEGROUND POLL€¦ · BATTLEGROUND POLL A national survey of 1,000...
Transcript of THE GEORGE WASHINGTON BATTLEGROUND POLL€¦ · BATTLEGROUND POLL A national survey of 1,000...
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
THE GEORGE WASHINGTON
BATTLEGROUND POLL A national survey of 1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction,
or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?
24%
10%
67%
28%
8%
64%
21%
9%
70%
Right direction Unsure Wrong track
1/16/2014 3/20/2014 8/28/2014
Q1
October 27-31, 2013/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.
28%
32%
28%
31%29%
32%
37%39%
34%
21%
73% 70%
28%
24%
38%
32%
39%
37%
33%35%36%
31% 34%
38%
38%40%40%
41%
64%
67%
59%
54%
57%
64%63%62%
55%
59%
72%
59%
75%
59%
56%57%
61%
56%54%55%
57%
51%
62%60%
52%54%
67%
Right Direction 38% 40% 40% 41% 39% 28% 32% 31% 38% 34% 36% 28% 31% 29% 32% 19% 18% 35% 33% 32% 37% 38% 37% 39% 34% 19% 24% 28% 21%
Wrong Track 57% 55% 54% 52% 54% 67% 60% 62% 51% 56% 55% 62% 63% 64% 59% 72% 75% 59% 59% 61% 57% 56% 57% 54% 59% 73% 67% 64% 70%
Unsure 7% 7% 9% 7% 11% 9% 9% 10% 7% 9% 9% 8% 6% 8% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 8% 10% 8% 9%
Mar-
04
Jun-
04
Aug-
04
Oct-
04
Mar-
05
Oct-
05
Feb-
06
Sep-
06
Jul-
09
Dec-
09
Apr-
10
Aug-
10
Sep-
10
Oct-
10
May-
11
Sep-
11
Nov-
11
Feb-
12
May-
12
Aug-
12
Sep-
12
9/27
/12
10/1
8/12
11/5
/12
12/6
/12
10/3
1/13
1/16
/14
3/14
/14
8/28
/14
Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do
you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?
Q1
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
Being as specific as you can, what are one or two reasons why you think the
country is headed in the right direction? Split sample A only
(If “Right direction” in Q1, Asked of N= 106 Respondents, or 10.4% of Sample)
Q1-1 Open-Ended Responses Among Voters
Selecting
“Right
Direction”
Among All
Voters
Healthcare going well 21.3% 2.2%
Economy doing better / stock market 18.6% 1.9%
Jobs up / unemployment down 17.2% 1.8%
General positive 13.8% 1.4%
Positive feeling about Obama 13.6% 1.4%
Other 8.1% 0.8%
Housing market better / new jobs and construction 4.1% 0.4%
Unsure / Refused 3.3% 0.3% Q1-1
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
Being as specific as you can, what are one or two reasons why you think the country is
off on the wrong track? Split sample A only
(If “Wrong track” in Q1, Asked of N= 375 Respondents, or 37% of Sample)
Q1-2 Open-Ended Responses Among Voters Selecting
“Wrong Track”
Among
All Voters
Have issues with Obama / country has lack of leadership 19.3% 7.1%
Foreign conflicts / poor foreign policy 12.0% 4.5%
Have issues with Congress 11.4% 4.2%
The economy is poor 8.7% 3.2%
Other issues /education, losing religion 7.7% 2.9%
Other 6.4% 2.4%
There is too much gov't spending 6.3% 2.3%
Issues with Obamacare 5.1% 1.9%
There is a lack of jobs, especially good jobs 5.1% 1.9%
Immigration issues 3.8% 1.4%
Unsure / Refused 3.5% 1.3%
Police shootings / police militarization / racism 3.3% 1.2%
Government is too big 2.9% 1.1%
Republicans 2.3% 0.9%
Taxation / wealth gap 2.0% 0.7%
Q1-2
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to
make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate
or the Democratic candidate, in your Congressional district?
43%
16%
41% 43%
14%
43% 46%
12%
42%
Republican Undecided Democratic
1/16/2014 3/20/2014 8/28/2014
Q2
October 27-31, 2013/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.
47%
46%43% 43%
45%
46%44%
41%42%43%
46%
45%
45%
12%14%16%
15%11%8%
13% 13%
7%8%
13% 9% 10%
42%41% 43%
44%45%46%
46%46%
47%44%
47%
44%42%
Republican 43% 45% 46% 45% 45% 44% 46% 47% 42% 41% 43% 43% 46%
Undecided 13% 8% 11% 13% 9% 10% 8% 7% 13% 15% 16% 14% 12%
Democratic 44% 47% 44% 42% 47% 46% 46% 46% 45% 44% 41% 43% 42%
11/9/11 2/22/12 5/3/12 8/8/12 9/20/12 9/27/12 10/18/12 11/5/12 12/6/12 10/31/13 1/16/14 3/20/14 8/28/14
If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a
choice, would you be voting for, the Republican candidate or the Democratic
candidate, in your Congressional district?
Q2
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
What is most likely to drive your vote for Congress? Would you say it will be...
Your feelings about President Obama; Obamacare; The economy; Social Security
and Medicare; Your feelings on women’s issues, or
The behavior of your Member of Congress?
10%
13%
24%
10%
5%
15%
Feelings about President Obama
Obamacare
The economy
Social Security and Medicare
Women’s issues
Behavior of your Member of Congress
Q3
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as
President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?
41%
5%
54%
44%
3%
53%
44%
5%
51%
Approve Unsure Disapprove
1/16/2014 3/20/2014 8/28/2014
Q4
October 27-31, 2013/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.
48% 44%44%
49%50%53%
41%
45%
50%
48%
49%
49%46% 45%
52%
44%
5%3%5%3%3%2%2%5%4%4%
2%3%2%5% 3% 5%
51%53%
49%
54%52%
47%48%
49%
48%
49%48%
45%
51%
45%
50% 52%
Approve 46% 52% 45% 44% 53% 48% 48% 50% 49% 49% 49% 50% 45% 41% 44% 44%
Unsure 4% 4% 5% 5% 3% 5% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 5% 3% 5%
Disapprove 51% 45% 50% 52% 45% 48% 49% 48% 49% 48% 49% 47% 52% 54% 53% 51%
10/20/1
05/12/11 9/1/11 11/9/11 2/22/12 5/3/12 8/8/12 9/20/12 9/27/12
10/18/1
211/5/12 12/6/12
10/31/1
31/16/14 3/20/14 8/28/14
How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?
Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?
Q4
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
Here is the first one:
The Economy
40%
43%
43%
3%
2%
2%
57%
55%
55%
1/16/2014
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
Approve Unsure Disapprove
Q5
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
Solving problems
43%
43%
42%
3%
3%
3%
55%
54%
55%
1/16/2014
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
Approve Unsure Disapprove
Q6
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
Working with Congress
40%
40%
40%
3%
5%
3%
56%
55%
57%
1/16/2014
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
Approve Unsure Disapprove
Q7
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
The federal budget and spending
33%
34%
35%
4%
3%
4%
63%
63%
61%
1/16/2014
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
Approve Unsure Disapprove
Q8
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
Jobs
43%
45%
47%
3%
4%
3%
54%
51%
50%
1/16/2014
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
Approve Unsure Disapprove
Q9
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
Taxes
41%
42%
45%
6%
8%
5%
53%
50%
50%
1/16/2014
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
Approve Unsure Disapprove
Q10
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
Foreign policy
40%
38%
6%
4%
54%
58%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
Approve Unsure Disapprove
Q11
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
Social Security
43%
44%
11%
12%
47%
45%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
Approve Unsure Disapprove
Q12
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
Medicare
43%
46%
9%
10%
48%
44%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
Approve Unsure Disapprove
Q13
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
Standing up for the middle class
48%
50%
4%
2%
48%
48%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
Approve Unsure Disapprove
Q14
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
Representing middle class values
47%
48%
4%
3%
49%
48%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
Approve Unsure Disapprove
Q15
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
Immigration
38% 5% 57% 8/28/2014
Approve Unsure Disapprove
Q16
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
How would you rate the job Congress is doing? Do you approve
or disapprove of the job they are doing?
9% 14% 13% 16%
4% 4% 5% 5%
87% 81% 82%
80%
10/31/2013 1/16/2014 3/20/2014 8/28/2014
Approve Unsure Disapprove
Q17
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for
each one, whether you have more confidence in…
the Republican Party or the Democratic Party - to deal with this issue.
The economy
47%
49%
43%
42%
1%
1%
6%
6%
3%
2%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
GOP Party DEM Party Both Equal Neither Unsure
Q18
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for
each one, whether you have more confidence in…
the Republican Party or the Democratic Party - to deal with this issue.
Solving problems
35%
40%
43%
41%
2%
2%
15%
13%
5%
3%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
GOP Party DEM Party Both Equal Neither Unsure
Q19
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for
each one, whether you have more confidence in…
the Republican Party or the Democratic Party - to deal with this issue.
The federal budget and spending
48%
51%
41%
38% 1%
8%
8%
2%
2%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
GOP Party DEM Party Both Equal Neither Unsure
Q20
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for
each one, whether you have more confidence in…
the Republican Party or the Democratic Party - to deal with this issue.
Jobs
45%
47%
45%
46%
1%
1%
7%
4%
2%
2%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
GOP Party DEM Party Both Equal Neither Unsure
Q21
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for
each one, whether you have more confidence in…
the Republican Party or the Democratic Party - to deal with this issue.
Taxes
47%
48%
44%
42% 1%
6%
6%
3%
3%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
GOP Party DEM Party Both Equal Neither Unsure
Q22
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for
each one, whether you have more confidence in…
the Republican Party or the Democratic Party - to deal with this issue.
Foreign policy
47%
50%
42%
40%
1%
1%
6%
4%
4%
4%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
GOP Party DEM Party Both Equal Neither Unsure
Q23
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for
each one, whether you have more confidence in…
the Republican Party or the Democratic Party - to deal with this issue.
Social Security
39%
41%
49%
47%
1%
1%
7%
7%
4%
4%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
GOP Party DEM Party Both Equal Neither Unsure
Q24
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for
each one, whether you have more confidence in…
the Republican Party or the Democratic Party - to deal with this issue.
Medicare
37%
39%
51%
50%
1%
1%
6%
6%
5%
5%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
GOP Party DEM Party Both Equal Neither Unsure
Q25
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for
each one, whether you have more confidence in…
the Republican Party or the Democratic Party - to deal with this issue.
Standing up for the middle class
36%
37%
54%
52% 1%
8%
8%
3%
2%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
GOP Party DEM Party Both Equal Neither Unsure
Q26
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for
each one, whether you have more confidence in…
the Republican Party or the Democratic Party - to deal with this issue.
Representing middle class values
39%
39%
52%
51%
1%
1%
6%
7%
3%
2%
3/20/2014
8/28/2014
GOP Party DEM Party Both Equal Neither Unsure
Q27
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for
each one, whether you have more confidence in…
the Republican Party or the Democratic Party - to deal with this issue.
Immigration
48% 41% 1% 7%
3% 8/28/2014
GOP Party DEM Party Both Equal Neither Unsure
Q28
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
Do you think that your personal economic situation has gotten
better, worse, or stayed the same over the past four years?
22%
36%
40%
26%
34%
39%
29%
36%
35%
Gotten better
Gotten worse
Stayed the same
1/16/2014 3/20/2014 8/28/2014
Q29
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
What would you say is the economic issue that makes you feel things have
gotten better? Would you say that it is… making enough money, having a good
job, the national economy getting better, or your own personal improvement? (If “Gotten better” in Q29, Asked of N= 290 Respondents, or 28.6% of Sample)
7%
24%
37%
22%
9%
1%
Making enough
money
Having a good job
National economy
getting better
Your own personal
improvement
Combo/Other
Unsure/Refused
Q30
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
What would you say is the economic issue that personally worries you the most?
Would you say that it is… having a secure retirement, having enough money to pay your
bills and the rising cost of daily goods, affordable health care, finding or keeping a good job,
having enough money to afford college or post high school education, or increasing taxes? (If “Gotten worse” in Q29, Asked of N= 362 Respondents, or 35.7% of Sample)
16%
34%
12%
12%
3%
10%
13%
1%
Retirement
Money to pay bills/rising
cost of daily goods
Health care
Finding/keeping good
jobAfford college/post-HS
education
Increasing taxes
Combo/Other
Unsure/Refused
Q31
August 23-28, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters/SPLIT SAMPLE A/B/ ±3.1% M.O.E.
What would you say is the economic issue that makes you think things are about the same?
Would you say that it is… worries about your job security, having enough money to pay
your bills and the rising cost of daily goods, health care costs, your own personal issues,
having enough money to afford college or post high school education, or increasing taxes? (If “Stayed the same” in Q29, Asked of N= 358 Respondents, or 35.3% of Sample)
7%
39%
10%
14%
12%
5%
7%
2%
Job security
Money to pay bills
Health care costs
Personal issues
Afford college/post-HS
education
Increasing taxes
Combo/Other
Unsure/Refused
Q32