Battleground States Poll - September 28, 2006

September 28, 2006 Gubernatorial Races

Democrats seem on track to reverse the balance of power in state governorships. Among battleground states included in the latest Zogby Interactive poll, Democratic candidates were ahead in 13 races, while Republicans led in five and one race was tied. In Zogby's poll earlier this month, Democrats led 12 states, Republicans six and one race was mixed. Zogby, in cooperation with The Wall Street Journal Online, is

conducting a series of online polls that track 19 gubernatorial and 18 Senate races through Election Day. Taking into account governorships that aren't up for re-election and those that weren't included in the battleground polling because the incumbent party is widely expected to remain in power, the Democrats would hold 28 governorships and Republicans 21, if the results on Election Day were to match the latest polling. (One race, Iowa, had tied results in the latest poll.) That breakdown in power in the nation's governorships would mark a reversal from the current balance of power. Today, Republicans hold 28 governorships and Democrats 22. Six of the governors' races -- five led by Democrats and one led by a Republican -- were within the polls' margins of error, which ranged from 2.6 to 4.3 percentage points per candidate. The latest poll was conducted Sept. 19-25. Minnesota, which was colored gray in the prior poll, is blue this time as Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch maintained a slight lead against Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty. The prior poll was conducted before the state primary, in which Mr. Hatch defeated state Sen. Becky Lourey to win the Democratic slot on the ballot. In earlier Zogby polls, while Mr. Hatch led Mr. Pawlenty, the incumbent led in matchups against Ms. Lourey. Such "mixed" results have been colored gray. In Iowa, Republican Jim Nussle and Democrat Chet Culver are running neck and neck in the race to succeed Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack. Mr. Culver had edged to a lead in August after trailing Mr. Nussle throughout the year. But the contest has been tight. Neither candidate has had a lead this year that was greater than the polls' margin of error. Gov. Rod Blagojevich, the Democratic governor of Illinois who was once seen as vulnerable, has expanded his lead into double digits in recent polls. Judy Baar Topinka has failed to poll well among her Republican base, Zogby notes. In Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Ed Rendell held a 10 percentage point lead over Republican Lynn Swann for a second month. Mr Swann, a former Pittsburgh Steeler wide receiver, had pulled to within a few points of the lead earlier this year. Arnold Schwarzenegger pulled to a nine percentage point lead over Democratic challenger Phil Angelides. Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, who was Ralph Nader's vice presidential running mate in 2004, seems to pull votes from Mr. Angelides. Mr. Camejo has eight percent of the vote, while Libertarian Art Oliver has four percent.

GUBERNATORIAL: ARIZONA

Democratic incumbent Janet Napolitano holds a nine-point lead over her GOP rival Len Munsil, a social conservative who surged past Don Goldwater to win the Republican primary earlier this month. Napolitano was unopposed in her primary. For all of 2006, Napolitano has hovered within a point or two of 50% vs. potential rivals, and seems well-positioned in her re-election race, though she retains just a narrow majority. Libertarian Barry Hess draws 4% of the vote, mostly pulling from potential Munsil voters.

GUBERNATORIAL: CALIFORNIA

Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has held onto his come-from-behind lead. Challenger Phil Angelides is the Democratic nominee in a blue state, but sorely lacks the governor's star power. A recent blowup over insensitive Schwarzenegger comments caught on tape didn't appear to hurt the governor. Also, Green Party candidate Peter Camejo is drawing more votes away from Angelides than Libertarian Art Olivier is pulling from Schwarzenegger, Zogby notes.

GUBERNATORIAL: COLORADO

Rep. Bob Beauprez, a Republican and favorite of the White House, rebounded against Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter in the latest Zogby poll. Colorado is unusual: Despite a GOP registration edge, the state has been kind to Democrats in recent elections. Ritter is seen as a moderate, a Catholic who opposes abortion but has said he would always support a woman's right to choose.

GUBERNATORIAL: FLORIDA

Charlie Crist, the GOP attorney general, continues to hold a big lead over his challenger, Democratic Congressman Jim Davis, in the race to fill the seat that will be vacated by Republican Gov. Jeb Bush. Zogby notes that Davis is backed by just 75% of voters in his own party, far less than the 88% Crist gets among Republicans.

GUBERNATORIAL: GEORGIA

Sonny Perdue, the incumbent Republican governor, continues to hold a comfortable lead over Democratic challenger Mark Taylor, the lieutenant governor of Georgia. Perdue holds a two-to-one lead among men, a narrow lead among women, and a lopsided 63% to 27% lead among white voters. Perdue's 2002 election was the crowning achievement of the transformation of the state that once elected Jimmy Carter into a GOP bastion.

GUBERNATORIAL: ILLINOIS

Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, once seen as vulnerable, has expanded his lead into double digits in recent polls. The moderate Republican nominee, State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, has failed to poll well among traditional Republican bases. Zogby notes that Topinka manages to run even among men, but among women she lags. She loses among whites, among blacks, and among Hispanics, Zogby finds.

GUBERNATORIAL: IOWA

GOP Congressman Jim Nussle and Democratic Secretary of State Chet Culver are running neck and neck in a state President Bush narrowly won in 2004. In this tight race to succeed Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack, Culver has taken a pro-choice position and his campaign has tried to paint Nussle as to the right of the electorate on the issue. A recent debate focused on crime and punishment, with key issues including a proposal to rebuild a prison and punishments for manufacturing methamphetamine. Neither candidate has led by more than the polls' margin of error this year.

GUBERNATORIAL: MARYLAND

Bob Ehrlich, who became the first Republican governor in 34 years when he defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002, continues to trail Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley. In one-on-one matchups, O'Malley has held a double-digit lead the past three polls.

GUBERNATORIAL: MASSACHUSETTS

Massachusetts has elected Republican governors since Michael Dukakis departed but, with Gov. Mitt Romney opting against seeking re-election, the Democrats are running strong. Romney's lieutenant governor, Kerry Healey, trails Democrat Deval Patrick, a former assistant attorney general for civil rights. Patrick, who won the primary election earlier this month, has widened his lead over Healey in the latest two Zogby polls.

GUBERNATORIAL: MICHIGAN

Gov. Jennifer Granholm leads Republican challenger Dick DeVos, the Amway heir, by nine percentage points in polling that includes third-party candidates. In a one-on-one matchup, her lead is at its widest level since January. Zogby attributes Granholm's growing strength to a Democratic ad blitz and weakening of support for DeVos among his Republican base.

GUBERNATORIAL: MINNESOTA

Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who succeeded independent Jesse Ventura, remains in a tight race against Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch. While Hatch has edged ahead of Pawlenty in the past three polls, Hatch's lead is well within the poll's margin of error. Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson has consistently polled in single digits.

GUBERNATORIAL: NEVADA

Republican Rep. Jim Gibbons holds a lead over Democratic State Sen. Dina Titus but the race has tightened somewhat since the poll conducted in early September. Zogby notes that the candidates poll evenly among women, while Gibbons has a 50%-to-43% lead among men. Titus has the support of 91% of Democrats, while Gibbons is backed by 84% of Republicans.

GUBERNATORIAL: NEW YORK

State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer continues to hold tightly to his position as the leading candidate for governor of New York, after rival Democrat Tom Suozzi was removed from the race in the state's Sept. 12 primary. The GOP's candidate, lawyer John Faso, trails Spitzer by about 37 percentage points.

GUBERNATORIAL: OHIO

Republican Ohio Gov. Bob Taft's time is up due to term limits, and Democrats hope the investment scandal that engulfed him this year will mar his party's hopes to hold the governorship. GOP Secretary of State Ken Blackwell polls about nine percentage points behind the Democrats' candidate, Congressman Ted Strickland.

GUBERNATORIAL: OREGON

Incumbent Democrat Ted Kulongoski's lead over the Republicans' Ron Saxton tightened in the most recent poll with the inclusion of third-party candidates, including Green Party candidate Joe Keating, who raked in about 6%, and the Constitution Party's Mary Starrett, at about 5%.

GUBERNATORIAL: PENNSYLVANIA

Incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell remains ahead of Republican Lynn Swann, a former Pittsburgh Steeler wide receiver. In the early September poll, Rendell notched his widest lead so far this year, and he maintained that 10-percentage-point spread in the latest poll.

GUBERNATORIAL: TEXAS

Incumbent Rick Perry faces broad competition for re-election, with several strong third-party candidates as well as a Democratic rival. A five-way matchup including Democrat Chris Bell, author and musician Kinky Friedman, one-time Republican Carole Keeton Strayhorn and Libertarian James Werner leaves Perry in the lead by about 11 percentage points; all the candidates except for Werner poll in the double-digits.

GUBERNATORIAL: WISCONSIN

Wisconsin Republicans see Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle as vulnerable in the 2006 race; his success could hinge on attempts to increase school funding and limit the state's rising property taxes. In a two-way matchup, Doyle has a lead of about five percentage points over Republican Mark Green, within the poll's margin of error. In a three-way matchup that includes Green Party candidate Nelson Eisman, Doyle's lead narrows to two points.

Eisman nets 4.7%.

September 28, 2006 Senate Races

Republicans picked up a state in the latest Battleground States Poll tally and remain on a course to retain control of the Senate But their leads remain narrow in nearly every race tracked. The latest Zogby Interactive polls, conducted Sept. 19-25 in cooperation with The Wall Street Journal Online, show Democrats ahead in 11 of the 18 states polled, while Republicans lead in six. In a Zogby poll conducted earlier this month, Democrats were ahead in 11 and Republicans in five. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, continues to lead in Connecticut, but barely. Although Republicans are ahead in fewer of the battleground states than Democrats, the party would maintain control of the Senate if the Election Day outcome were to match Zogby's poll results. Taking into account 40 Republican seats not up for re-election and seven that weren't included in the polling project because Republicans had been expected to win handily, Republicans would retain a 53-45 majority in the 100-seat chamber. In practice, though, the Republican majority might not be as firm as the 53-45 count would suggest. Mr. Lieberman and another independent would be expected to vote frequently with the Democrats. Moreover, several races -- including Rhode Island and Montana -- that aren't included in the battlegrounds polling project because they had been considered solid for Republican incumbents have become competitive. Five of the six battleground races that Republicans lead are particularly tight, within the polls' margins of error. In the battlegrounds poll, states are assigned a color based on party regardless of whether a candidate's lead is within the margin of error, which, in the latest poll, range from 2.6 to 4.3 percentage points per candidate. Three of the 11 races that Democrats lead are within the margin of error. Ohio and Pennsylvania are two of the races that Democrats lead by thin margins, and in both states, Republican incumbents have narrowed their challengers' lead over the past several months. In the latest poll, Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown is four percentage points ahead of Republican Sen. Mike DeWine, while in Pennsylvania Democrat Bob Casey leads Sen. Rick Santorum by six points. In New Jersey, the other race that a Democrat leads by a narrow margin, Robert Menendez was ahead of Republican Tom Kean Jr. by six percentage points. Several other pollsters have put Mr. Kean in the lead as Mr. Menendez has faced allegations of ethical breaches (he has denied wrongdoing) and amid other difficult headlines for Democrats, including the admission of fraud by a former Democratic state leader, John Lynch, and controversial revelations in a book by former Gov. Jim McGreevey. In Virginia, Republican incumbent George Allen remained locked in a tight race against Democrat James Webb. Mr. Allen was up by five percentage points, within the margin of error, in the latest poll, after narrowly trailing Mr. Webb in the prior two Zogby polls. Mr. Allen has been on the defensive since August, first for using what some consider a racial slur against an Indian-American aide to Mr. Webb and, more recently, for reacting angrily to revelations of his Jewish heritage. The latest stir began shortly before the Zogby polling opened on Sept. 19 and it continued to play out in media reports during the polling period. The race to fill the seat that will be vacated by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist was also tight. Democrat Harold Ford Jr. continues to lag behind Republican Bob Corker, though Mr. Corker's lead is within the margin of error and at least one other pollster recently has shown Mr. Ford edging ahead. Zogby began conducting a series of online polls last fall that will track Senate and gubernatorial races through Election Day. The polling project began with 17 Senate races but was expanded to 18 in August to include Connecticut. The polling project tracks 19 gubernatorial races.

SENATE: ARIZONA

Arizona's senate race is shaping up to be a GOP hold. Sen. Jon Kyl maintains a solid lead over Democratic State Chairman Jim Pederson. Kyl and Pederson, a millionaire shopping mall developer, sparred recently over immigration and each accused the other of backing "amnesty" for illegal immigrants. Kyl supports an immigration overhaul that would require illegal immigrants to return home before applying for a guest-worker program. Pederson has come out in favor of a measure similar to that offered by Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, which would allow illegal immigrants to apply for legal status.

SENATE: CONNECTICUT

Joe Lieberman's lead over Democrat Ned Lamont narrowed again in the latest poll and is now well within the margin of error. Lieberman, running as an independent since losing the Democratic primary, was 10 percentage points ahead of Lamont in August, immmediately after the primary. Now his lead has fallen to two points, while Republican Alan Schlesinger remains a distant third. Lieberman has angered his party for his support for the Iraq war, so has stepped up his criticism of war strategy and execution while attacking the notion that the U.S. should set a timeline for a pullout. Lamont leads among Connecticut's women voters, though he trails Lieberman badly among men.

SENATE: FLORIDA

Sen. Bill Nelson is ahead by a wide margin. Republican nominee Katherine Harris, known for her role in the 2000 election fight, has struggled all year. Fundraising has been slow and GOP leaders tried to find another candidate.

SENATE: MARYLAND

Democrat Ben Cardin expanded his lead against Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele in the race for the seat of retiring Democrat Paul Sarbanes. Cardin narrowly defeated former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume in a primary election earlier this month. While Mfume has since thrown his support behind Cardin, Steele, an African American, has said he plans to court Democratic black voters, according to the Associated Press. The latest poll finds Steele gets the support of at least 30% of black voters, while Cardin has a 10 percentage point lead over Steele among white voters.

SENATE: MICHIGAN

Incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow's lead has remained in a narrow range since July. In the latest poll, she is about seven percentage points ahead of Michael Bouchard, sheriff of Oakland County, north of Detroit. As recently as March, she led by 14 points in a one-on-one matchup against Bouchard. Zogby notes that both candidates poll strongly among members of their own party and are close among independents. Stabenow holds a 16-

percentage-point lead among women voters, Zogby finds.

SENATE: MINNESOTA

Democrat Amy Klobuchar, the Hennepin County attorney, maintained a nine-percentage-point advantage over Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy in the race to fill the seat that will be vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton.

SENATE: MISSOURI

Missouri Republican Sen. Jim Talent continues to poll just ahead of Democratic State Auditor Claire McCaskill. Talent leads among men, while McCaskill leads among women. McCaskill has an advantage in urban areas, while Talent is ahead in suburbs. "This race is going to be one of the closest in the nation," says Zogby.

SENATE: NEVADA

Republican incumbent Sen. John Ensign leads Democrat Jack Carter by about seven percentage points. Earlier in the year, Ensign consistently held a double-digit advantage over the former president's son.

SENATE: NEW JERSEY

Robert Menendez, who was named to serve in the Senate this year after Jon Corzine's move into the governorship, is polling just ahead of Republican Tom Kean Jr., a state senator and the son of the popular former governor. The race has been tight for months and Menendez's lead remains within the poll's margin of error. Several other recent polls have put Kean in the lead. Menendez has faced allegations of ethical breaches; he has denied

wrongdoing.

SENATE: NEW MEXICO

Sen. Jeff Bingaman, a Democrat, maintained a wide lead over Allen McCulloch. Bingaman has been ahead by more than 20 percentage points in each poll since July. McCulloch, a political newcomer, is a Farmington, N.M., urologist.

SENATE: NEW YORK

Incumbent Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead over her Republican rival, former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer, after the state's Sept. 12 primary knocked out Kathleen Troia "KT" McFarland, a Reagan-era Pentagon official, and anti-war Democrat and labor organizer Jonathan Tasini. Clinton's showing -- as well as that of Maria Cantwell in Washington's primary last week -- indicated that other Democrats wouldn't be hurt for their

war records the way Joseph Lieberman was in his primary loss last month.

SENATE: OHIO

Ohio's Senate race remains hotly contested. In the latest poll pairing incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine against the challenger, seven-term state Rep. Sherrod Brown, the spread between the two candidates held steady, with Brown still in the lead by about four percentage points. Zogby notes that about 11% of those surveyed said they don't know which candidate they prefer -- a large number of undecideds as Election Day draws nearer.

SENATE: PENNSYLVANIA

Incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Santorum has lost ground among the most conservative Republican voters since supporting fellow (but more moderate) GOP Sen. Arlen Specter in his 2004 race against the right-wing Pat Toomey. Democrats are gunning for Santorum, too, arguing that he is too conservative for a state that voted Democratic in two straight presidential elections. Casey continued to lead in the most recent Zogby poll, with the spread seeing little

impact from the inclusion of several third-party candidates. His lead, though, remains just within the poll's margin of error. Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli was barred from the ballot earlier this week because the party did not have enough valid signatures in its nominating petitions.

SENATE: TENNESSEE

In the close race to succeed Sen. Bill Frist, the Senate majority leader vacating his seat next year to explore a potential 2008 presidential bid, Democrats are hoping to capitalize. But their candidate, Rep. Harold Ford Jr., one of the more conservative Democrats in the House, has trailed the GOP's Bob Corker since the state's Republican primary in early August. Corker was ahead by two percentage points in a poll in early September and he is up by six percentage points in the latest poll. But his lead is within the poll's margin of error and at least one other pollster has shown Ford edge ahead.

SENATE: TEXAS

Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than 10 years, and Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who got 65% of the vote in 2000, is a safe bet to win a third term. Despite some improvement in her standing in early September, Democratic challenger Barbara Ann Radnofsky polled far behind Hutchison in the latest poll.

SENATE: VIRGINIA

In the race for Virginia's Senate seat, George Allen, the state's Republican senator and former governor, has returned to his position in the lead over James Webb, former secretary of the Navy in the Reagan administration. Allen has been on the defensive since August, first for using what some consider a racial slur against an Indian-American aide to Webb and, more recently, for reacting angrily to revelations of his Jewish heritage. The latest stir started shortly before the Zogby poll began on Sept. 19 and it continued to play out in media reports during the polling period.

SENATE: WASHINGTON

Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell remains in strong position against Safeco CEO and GOP nominee Mike McGavick, thanks to a campaign strategy that includes making much of gay marriage -- a popular idea among Washington's generally liberal voters and one that may entice them to overlook her support for the war in Iraq. Zogby notes that she holds large leads in the state's big cities -- Seattle, Spokane and Vancouver -- and also leads in suburbs,

"extremely unusual" for a Democrat.

SENATE: WISCONSIN

Incumbent Sen. Herb Kohl, a Democrat, faces Robert Gerald Lorge, a lawyer who lost a 2002 race for secretary of state. Kohl polls well ahead of Lorge. Green Party candidate Rae Vogeler pulls in about 7%.

Methodology

Online polls were conducted by Zogby Interactive, a unit of Zogby International of Utica, N.Y. Zogby has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum. Individuals who registered were asked to provide personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby, which in turn examined that data and contacted individuals by telephone to confirm that it was valid.

Zogby International telephoned about 2% of respondents who completed the interactive survey to validate their personal data. To solicit participation, Zogby sent emails to individuals who had asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby's telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online

polls.

The Interactive polls were supplemented by 20 to 40 telephone calls in 19 states (AR, CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, MD, MI, MO, NV, NM, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, TX, VA, WI) to ensure proper representation of all demographic groups.

Margins of error for each candidate vary by state and range between 2.6 and 4.5 percentage points. Margins for specific states are available on the state panels.

Zogby International President John Zogby says 15% of the company's U.S. database of online-poll participants are "regulars," who take part in half of the interactive polls the company conducts; the balance of the names of respondents in the database change frequently. Likely voters in each of the 25 states followed instructions sent by an e-mail that led them to the survey located on Zogby's secure servers. Those polled were asked unique questions pertaining to the races in their state.

As is usual in polling, weightings are applied to ensure that the selection of participants accurately reflects characteristics of the voting population, including region, party, age, race, religion and gender.

For the overall party breakdowns shown in the governor and senate panels: Races that aren't being polled are assumed to stay in their current party's possession.

Regarding 2006 races, the actual matchups that voters will see on ballots haven't been decided. Primary elections that will narrow the field will be held beginning in early March. Until the fields are narrowed for 2006, the Zogby polls match up multiple candidates in each state and identify some of the strongest candidates from each party. Voter sentiment is gauged on declared candidates along with others whom political observers have identified as potential contenders.

The schedule for primaries is as follows:

l March 7 - Texas l March 21 - Illinois l April 2 - Ohio l April 16 - Oregon l May 15 - Pennsylvania l June - Washington* l June 6 - California, Iowa l June 12 - New York l July 7 - New Jersey l July 18 - Georgia l August - Colorado* l Aug. 3 - Tennessee l Aug. 8 - Michigan l Aug. 15 - Nevada l September - Minnesota* l Sept. 5 - Florida l Sept. 12 - Maryland, Wisconsin l Sept. 16 - Massachusetts

*exact date to be determined

Read more about Zogby's methodology: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=830

Sources

Zogby Interactive: http://www.zogby.com/, Cook Political Report: http://www.cookpolitical.com, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/, state governments, state elections boards, WSJ.com research

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