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The Geography of Banking · Prepared by: Ian Goodliffe, Consulting Partner, CACI Limited Date...
Transcript of The Geography of Banking · Prepared by: Ian Goodliffe, Consulting Partner, CACI Limited Date...
Prepared for: The Financial Services Forum Annual Members’ Conference Prepared by: Ian Goodliffe, Consulting Partner, CACI Limited Date issued: November 2014
The Geography of Banking 2014-2020
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Introduction /1
Banking is evolving as a result of societal and technological changes and this means the branch footprint needs to be transformed to remain relevant
3
Introduction /2
Branches will still be important as "brand anchors", but branches won't be needed everywhere. Those branches that are required will need to change their format, purpose and location
4
Introduction /3
However, the pace of change isn't equal across the country, as the biggest driver of consumer behaviour is demographic and this obviously varies from town to town
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Introduction /4
Trust me, I’m a Geographer!
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Consumers are Changing
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What is Available?
Channel Impact – how consumers are changing their behaviour due to economic, social and technological trends – and the impact this will have on “banking in the future”
We start with individual-level behavioural forecasts to predict how customers will change their behaviour by 2020
We also know where they live, work and shop, so we can then assess how this will affect local branches and whole towns, cities and regions – which all adds up to the UK
The outcome is an effective way of optimising future investment across channels
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Channel Impact Structure
GFK FRS CACI Fresco Channel Impact Base Dataset
Recommendation
The CACI/GFK forecasts have been
validated against a range of published sources, including Futures Foundation,
Accenture and Deloitte and our own
Clients (Banks).
• Current trends • Channel
behaviour
• Channel behaviour by Fresco Segments
• Channel use forecasts to 2020
• Strategic multichannel recommendations
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Forecasts – Current Account Management
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mobile
Device
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Forecasts – Current Account Management
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Internet:
Computer
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Segment 7 “High Income Professional”
% of individuals using each channel to manage their current account(s)
63%
70% 13% 2
01
4
branch visits a
year 5 53%
50% 78% 2020
branch visits a
year 2
will open a new current account this
year
7%
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of High Income Professionals hold a current
account
99.0% Segment 11 “Road to Retirement”
74%
39%
4%
2014
branch visits a
year 12 72%
47%
53%
20
20
branch visits a
year 9
will open a new current account this
year
4%
% of individuals using each channel to manage their current account(s)
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Segment 7 “High Income Professional”
% of new savings accounts coming via each channel
Annual new savings deposits
is typically worth £17k
2014 2020 38%
53%
9% 4%
18%
78%
£4.1bn
£2.9bn £0.7bn
£0.4bn £1.6bn
£6.8bn
Assumes an annual growth rate of 1.95% (source: CACI MDG)
£7.7bn £8.8bn
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Segment 11 “Road to Retirement” Annual new
savings deposits is typically
worth £10k
2014 2020 59%
31%
10% 6%
36%
58% £2.8bn
£5.4bn
£0.9bn
£3.6bn
£0.6bn
£5.9bn
Assumes an annual growth rate of 1.5% (source: CACI MDG)
% of new savings accounts coming via each channel
£9.1bn £10.1bn
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Segment Evolution: Current Account Management (volume of transactions)
2014 1 Still At Home
2 Starting Out
3 Rising Metropolitans
4 Poorer Parents
5 Working Singles & Couples
6 Home-Owning Families
7 High Income Professionals
8 Older Working Families
9 Mid-Life Social Renters
10 Asset Rich Greys
11 Road To Retirement
12 Low Income Elderly
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Segment Evolution: Current Account Management (volume of transactions)
2020 1 Still At Home
2 Starting Out
3 Rising Metropolitans
4 Poorer Parents
5 Working Singles & Couples
6 Home-Owning Families
7 High Income Professionals
8 Older Working Families
9 Mid-Life Social Renters
10 Asset Rich Greys
11 Road To Retirement
12 Low Income Elderly
07. High Income Professionals
Chorleywood 28.7%
Esher 28.8%
East Horsley 28.6%
11. Road to Retirement
Benllech 50.0%
Braemar 53.3%
Tighnabruaich 45.1%
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Places are Changing
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What is Available?
Financial Footprint – where consumers “shop” for FS products 12.5 million new accounts (branch only), 11,575 branches,
2950 centres Master Score – UK ranking of all cities, towns, suburbs and
villages with a banking presence We can trend population change and branch sales
performance and forecast how consumers’ shopping, working and leisure habits will affect high street footfall by 2020
The outcome is an effective way of locating future branches as part of a multichannel distribution strategy
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Master Score Structure
Financial Centre
Footfall New Accounts opened in Branch
Value of Savings, Mortgages &
Loans
• Any destination with 1+ FS branch
• Classed according to urban hierarchy
• The number of people available to “buy” in each centre
• Sum of Current Accounts, Savings, Mortgages & Loans – branch ONLY
• Total balances (£) held by each adult/household in the catchment
Footfall is a balanced measure of:
Residential Population
Workforce Population
Shopping Population
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Master Score – Centre Rank/Gains Chart 2014
Market Coverage # Centres Required
10% 19
20% 50
30% 96
40% 162
50% 251
60% 369
70% 532
80% 773
90% 1181
100% 2943
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Master Score – Centre Rank/Gains Chart 2014
Market Coverage # Centres Required
10% 19
20% 50
30% 96
40% 162
50% 251
60% 369
70% 532
80% 773
90% 1181
100% 2943
X
800 Centres = 81% Coverage
X
1 2 Zone 1: MUST be in Performance Index 5
Zone 2: OUGHT to be in Performance Index 2
Zone 3: DON’T NEED to be in Performance Index 1
(subject to local considerations)
3
200 Centres = 45% Coverage
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Master Score – Centre Rank/Gains Chart 2014
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Master Score – Centre Rank/Gains Chart 2014 - 2020
Based on:
Trend analysis of Branch Sales (actual) 2009-2014
Central & Local Government Population Forecasts 2014-2020
CACI Property Pipeline (in association with Estates Gazette)
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Master Score – Centre Rank/Gains Chart 2020
Market Coverage # Centres Required (Delta from 2014)
10% 15 -4
20% 38 -12
30% 70 -26
40% 112 -50
50% 178 -73
60% 267 -102
70% 388 -144
80% 562 -211
90% 959 -222
100% 2633 -310
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Master Score – Centre Rank/Gains Chart 2020
Market Coverage # Centres Required (Delta from 2014)
10% 15 -4
20% 38 -12
30% 70 -26
40% 112 -50
50% 178 -73
60% 267 -102
70% 388 -144
80% 562 -211
90% 959 -222
100% 2633 -310
X
600 Centres = 81% Coverage
X
1 2 3
200 Centres = 53% Coverage
Zone 1: MUST be in Performance Index 7
Zone 2: OUGHT to be in Performance Index 4
Zone 3: DON’T NEED to be in Performance Index 1
(subject to local considerations)
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2020 Coverage Map*
*= modified to ensure 80% in each country England: 543 Wales: 39 Scotland: 81 Northern Ireland: 20 TOTAL: 683
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Distribution of Branches by 2020 Zone
Ranked on number of Zone 3 branches (August 2014) Zone 1 + Zone 2 = 683 Centres
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Centre Segmentation
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What is Available?
Centre Segments – combines elements from both Master Score and Channel Impact to deliver a segmentation of the UK’s Financial Centres
We also add age and economic health indicators to understand the opportunity and profile of each centre
We are finding this an ideal solution to support branch format planning for 2020
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Centre Segments Structure
Master Score
Channel Impact Age Profile Centre “Health”
• Also includes urban-rural hierarchy
• Also includes commuting patterns
• Buying and Managing Accounts – channel preference 2020
• Focus on key age groups:
• 20-24 • 65+
• Combination of a range of local economic factors Health is a balanced measure of:
Disposable Income
Retail mix and quality
Branch and shop closures
Unemployment (and change)
Population Growth
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Centre Segments
Segment Description Count % Footfall
Regional Hubs The largest centres in the UK, with a young urban population. Lower affluence, but healthy because of their size 15 11%
Affluent Urban Centres
Wealthy areas of towns and cities, with a young to middle-aged footfall, and a healthier outlook in terms of local decline
201 6%
Bustling Metropolitans
Ranging from smaller suburbs through to larger cities, young urban catchments of below-average income 742 28%
Thriving Towns & Cities
Strong and healthy centres, that although not excessively affluent nor necessarily large, have come out of the downturn in reasonably good shape
250 29%
Semi-Rural Prosperity Affluent towns and villages outside of cities, often with high proportions of commuters 231 3%
Struggling Communities
Centres, often smaller towns or modest suburbs, that have struggled through the economic downturn. Low affluence, and a tendency toward younger demographics
602 9%
Mature Wealth Towns (often rural) or areas of cities with high proportions of older individuals with high levels of affluence 580 8%
Older Hardship Centres (often rural) where there is a prevalence of low-affluence, older individuals 404 6%
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Savings is the value of the total market (all channels) of savings stock (source: CACI’s CSDB, Dec13). Weighted footfall is a blend of residential, worker and shopper footfall
Size and Affluence
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Health Indicators – Mortgage Values
Average mortgage value calculated from one year’s new business (source: CACI’s MMDB, Jan13-Dec13)
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Health Indicators – Population Change
Population growth include natural growth, migration, and forecast catchment changes due to retail and residential developments (Sources: CACI’s Population Projections and CACI’s Centre Futures, 2013-2018)
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Centre Segments: Potential Branch Formats
Segment Description Count % Footfall
Regional Hubs The largest centres in the UK, with a young urban population. Lower affluence, but healthy because of their size 15 11%
Affluent Urban Centres
Wealthy areas of towns and cities, with a young to middle-aged footfall, and a healthier outlook in terms of local decline
201 6%
Bustling Metropolitans
Ranging from smaller suburbs through to larger cities, young urban catchments of below-average income 742 28%
Thriving Towns & Cities
Strong and healthy centres, that although not excessively affluent nor necessarily large, have come out of the downturn in reasonably good shape
250 29%
Semi-Rural Prosperity Affluent towns and villages outside of cities, often with high proportions of commuters 231 3%
Struggling Communities
Centres, often smaller towns or modest suburbs, that have struggled through the economic downturn. Low affluence, and a tendency toward younger demographics
602 9%
Mature Wealth Towns (often rural) or areas of cities with high proportions of older individuals with high levels of affluence 580 8%
Older Hardship Centres (often rural) where there is a prevalence of low-affluence, older individuals 404 6%
Flagship Manned Advice Centre Convenience Service Centre Full Service Branch Full Service Branch/Agent Exit/Low cost leave-behind Manned Service Branch/Agent Exit
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Worked Example
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What does this mean for a city like Leeds?
Between 2014-2020 in the Leeds Urban Market: Overall adult population will grow by 5.1% (544k-574k) Overall market for FS core products* will grow by 9.4% (473k-518k) Branch-based market for FS core products will decline by 39%
(182k-112k) Non-branch channels will account for 68% of the total market in
2020 (44% in 2014) Branch visits will decline by 40% We therefore estimate that the “need” for a branch in the Leeds
Market will decline by 35%
*= FS Core Products Current Accounts Savings Investments Credit Cards Insurance (GI/LI) Mortgages Pensions Personal Loans
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62 BANK branches in Leeds (to say nothing about the 44 Retail Banks & B.Socs)
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10
10
9
7
10 Other Banks
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40 BANK branches in Leeds by 2020 (assumes all change is EQUAL across Brands)
10.5
6.5
6.5
5.85
4.5
6.5 Other Banks
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Where should the Branches be in Leeds?
Size Affluence Health
G A G
Leeds City Centre
Regional Hub
Zone 1
Size Affluence Health
r R r
Armley
Struggling Communities
Zone 3
Size Affluence Health
A A A
Zone 2
Headingley
Bustling Metropolitans
Size Affluence Health
A a A
Horsforth
Bustling Metropolitans
Zone 2
Size Affluence Health
R g A
Moortown
Affluent Urban Centre
Zone 3
Size Affluence Health
A R A
Cross Gates
Struggling Communities
Zone 2
Size Affluence Health
A R r
Morley
Struggling Communities
Zone 2
Size Affluence Health
A R A
Pudsey
Struggling Communities
Zone 2
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Where should the Branches be in Leeds?
Size Affluence Health
G A G
Leeds City Centre
Regional Hub
Zone 1
Size Affluence Health
r R r
Armley
Struggling Communities
Zone 3
Size Affluence Health
A A A
Zone 2
Headingley
Bustling Metropolitans
Size Affluence Health
A a A
Horsforth
Bustling Metropolitans
Zone 2
Size Affluence Health
R g A
Moortown
Affluent Urban Centre
Zone 3
Size Affluence Health
A R A
Cross Gates
Struggling Communities
Zone 2
Size Affluence Health
A R r
Morley
Struggling Communities
Zone 2
Size Affluence Health
A R A
Pudsey
Struggling Communities
Zone 2
Flagship
Service Centre
Service Centre
Advice Centre
Exit
Low-cost Format
Low-cost Format
Exit
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Branch to the Future
11,500
7,700
2014 2020
branches
branches
increase in UK
population
3% increase in
UK FS market
9%
decrease in
branch sales
37% decrease in
branch visits
35% increase in
mobile txns
400%