THE FUTURE OUTLOOK OF DESALINATION IN THE GULF: CHALLENGES...
Transcript of THE FUTURE OUTLOOK OF DESALINATION IN THE GULF: CHALLENGES...
Research Question
Preliminary research... Primary research!
How sustainable is desalination in the Gulf region? What is it’s role in the water and energy sectors? What is the future outlook? What are the challenges and opportunities?
- Doha (2 weeks) - Dubai & Sharjah (5 days), Abu Dhabi (9 days)
APRIL 14TH – MAY 14TH 2012
Primary Research 1. Met with professionals from industry, government and academia 2. Attended two conferences, in Doha and in Abu Dhabi
Desalination Brine water
50+ ppt
Saline water 30 - 50 ppt
Brackish water 0.5 - 30 ppt
Fresh water 0 - 0.5 ppt
Membrane Based Ex. RO
Thermal Based Ex. MSF & MED
ENERGY
Desalination & the Environment
1. Long term cumulative effects of desalination on the Gulf 2. Tying of energy and water through desalination has broader implications!
3-19%
GDP
Qatar & UAE Background & Indicators
3-5%
140 to
170
Million
toe DESERT Climate
32 to
40
TONNES
/ YEAR
13 to
17
/ YEAR
t o e
Up to
99% DESALI-NATION
> 3000 m3/person/year
120X SUSTAINBLE
> 3000
8 – 10% GROWTH
8 – 10% GROWTH
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Cu
mu
lati
ve O
nlin
e C
apac
ity
(m3
/d)
Cumulative Installed Desalination Capacity in GCC Since 1970
Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE
Water & Energy Demand Growth
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Cu
mu
lati
ve O
nlin
e C
apac
ity
(m3
/d)
Cumulative Installed Desalination Capacity in Qatar & UAE Since 1970
Qatar UAE
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020
Wat
er
De
man
d (
10
00
M3
/d)
Water Demand Forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020
Ele
ctri
city
De
man
d (
TWh
)
Electricity Demand Forecast
Water & Energy Sectors in Qatar & UAE
W&E Producers
Transmission/Distribution Companies
End User
W&E companies: i.e. Kahramaa, ADWEC
Distribution companies: i.e. Kahramaa, ADDC, AADC
W&E Authorities: Kahramaa, ADWEA, DEWA, SEWA, FEWA
Water & Electricity Tariffs
WATER ELECTRICITY $0.07/kWh 2.74/m3
$0.07-0.09/kWh $2.48/m3
Qatar
Abu Dhabi
PRODUCTION COST TARIFF
$0-0.04/kWh 0-1.92/m3
$0.01-0.04/kWh $0-0.60/m3
38-100% 30-100%
40-88% 76-100%
SUBSIDY
Negative Effects of Subsidization
m3/person/year 2 X GLOBAL AVG
> 3000
ELECTRICAL INTENSITY WATER INTENSITY
KWh/person/year 25% more than USA
> 16,000
Hong Kong
Luxembourg
Singapore
Switzerland
Norway
United Kingdom
Italy
Germany
United States
Japan
France
Canada
South Korea
Qatar
Kuwait
UAE
Oman
Brazil
Saudi Arabia Bahrain
China
India -
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
90,000
105,000
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70
GD
P (
PP
P)/
cap
ita
(USD
)
Energy Intensity (toe/thousand 2000 USD)
GDP PER CAPITA VS. ENERGY INTENSITY OF VARIOUS NATIONS
Future Outlook of W&E Sectors Increased demand for both water and electricity Increased privatization, particularly of water & electricity production Increasing interest in sustainability
Water Supply Management
DESAL CAPACITY
ENERGY DIVERSITY
STORAGE CAPACITY
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Cu
mu
lati
ve In
stal
led
C
apac
ity
(1
00
0 m
3/d
ay)
Desalination Forecast for Qatar and the UAE 2000-2020
Qatar UAE
WATER STORAGE CAPACITY
< 2 DAY
ASR Aquifer Storage & Recovery
Water Reservoirs
Plant Status Qatar (m3/day) UAE (m3/day)
Contracted 537,135 353,410
Planned 337,060 2,242,573
Total 874,195 2,595,983
Water Demand Management
TECHNICAL EFFECIENCY
BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE
BUILDING CODES WATER NETWORKS WATER SAVING DEVICES
ENVIRONMENTAL AWARENESS
Tari
ff
MULTI-SECTOR TARIFF INCREASE
?
Policy Recommendations
PRIORITIES 1) Decrease water & energy demand 2) Increase supply of energy from greener sources 3) Increase environmental management 4) Increase water supply & system capacity 5) Enhance institutional capacity
Policy Recommendations
Decrease water & energy demand
1) Adopt an Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) approach.
2) Increase public awareness about water and energy consumption.
3) Increase water and electricity tariffs for all sectors.
4) Increase the technical efficiency of water and electricity systems.
5) Increase the water use efficiency in the agricultural sector.
Policy Recommendations
Increase supply of energy from greener sources
1) Creation of a renewable energy roadmap at the national and emirate based level.
2) Decouple water and energy production.
3) Promote greater public-private-partnerships.
4) Continue and expand research on alternative and renewable energy.
5) Continue and expand alternative and renewable energy projects/installations.
Policy Recommendations
Increase environmental management
1) Adopt an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) approach.
2) Reduce environmental impacts of seawater intake by desalination plants on the
marine environment.
3) Reduce environmental impacts of brine discharge by desalination plants on the
marine environment.
4) Reduce green house gas emissions resultant of water production from
desalination.
Policy Recommendations
Increase water supply & system capacity
1) Increase rates of reclaimed water utilization.
2) Increase desalination capacity.
3) Increase system capacity.
Enhance institutional capacity
1) Enhance human capital, research capacity and public-private-partnerships
Conclusion
Technological advances in both sectors
Growing awareness within government & industry
Growing research capacity and human capital