The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What...

66
VOX INCUBATOR The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von Ritter and Guido Silvestri Draft, October 6, 2017 [email protected] [email protected]

Transcript of The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What...

Page 1: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

VOXINCUBATOR

TheFutureofWork

WhatOpportunitiesforVOXEurope?

APolicyPositionProposal(3P)forVOXEurope

KonradvonRitterandGuidoSilvestri

Draft,October6,2017

[email protected]

[email protected]

Page 2: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

2|P a g e

ABSTRACT

KeyRecommendationsDigitalization,globalization,anddemographicchangesaretransformingthenatureofworkandlabormarkets.ThisofferschallengesandopportunitiesforEurope.Inordertomanagewellthetransitiontowardsthe‘FutureofWork’,theEUwillhavetoundertakegreateffortstoalsobecomea‘SocialUnion’.

VOXadvocatesanEUwide“MarshallPlanonWorkandLife-longEmployability”asoneprogramtoputsuchSocialUnionintopractice,withthefollowingcomponents:

• FlexibilityandWork-LifeBalance

VOXsupportsaWorkingTimeChoiceActandbecometherecognizedpoliticalvoiceforthegrowingnumberofself-employed,start-ups,crowdandgigworkers.

• Life-longLearningforEmployability

VOXsupportsastrategytomove‘FromanUnemploymenttoanEmploymentInsurance’withare-orientationtowardsapreventiveschemefocusedonmaintainingemployability.

VOXadvocatestheimmediateadoptionof‘ErasmusPro’,aEuropeanapprenticeschemetofund200,000two-yearlongapprenticeshipsayear.

VOXEuropesupportsIndividualLong-TermAccountsthatsupportlife-longeducation,boostedbyaperiodicBonusforlive-longlearningandre-training.

• SocialProtectionandBasicIncomeVOXenvisionsuniversalsocialprotectionandanadequateincometobecomeacorepillarofEUPolicymaking.Thisrequiresalong-termperspectivecombinedwithshort-termactions.VOXadvocatesthestrengtheningofexistingGuaranteedMinimumIncome(GMI)schemesacrosstheEU,initiallywithatleastamodestgoalofconvergingonaminimumpovertythresholdof40%oftheequivalentnationalmedianincome(„extremepoverty“),withtheschemesconditionednotonlyonatraditionaljobsearch,butalsoonapossibledevelopmentofanewbusinessorevenan(unpaid)socialactivity(likementorship,etc.).VOXendorsestheideaofaStartCapitalforeveryyoungpersonintheEU.SuchstartcapitalcanbeseenasaSocialInheritance,thatenablesayoungpersontodevelopitstalents,choseacareerorstartupabusiness,independentlyofthesocialstatusandwealthoftheparents.VOXsupportslargescaleexperimentswithunconditionalbasicincome(UBI),toprovideasolidknowledgebasistodecideonthemeritsofthisnovelapproachtosocialprotection.

VOXEuropehastheopportunitytoprofileitselfasanadvocateforaEuropeanapproachtoSocialDevelopment,withpracticalminimumstandardsofsocialprotectionandofdecentworkandpay,leadingtowardsasuccessfuldigitaltransformationwhichcontributesbothtogreaterprosperityandbetterworkingconditionswithintheEU.

Page 3: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

3|P a g e

PolicySummary

BuildingBlocksforVOXPolicyPositionsintheFieldof‘FutureofWork’

Thispaperaddressesthetopic‘FutureofWork’andidentifiesthepoliticalspace,VOXmaywanttooccupyinthisfield.ItisafirstdrafttobereviewedanddiscussedattheVOXPartyAssemblyinBerlininOctober2017foradaptation,afterappropriatechangeshavebeenmade,aspartofVOX’spartyprogram.

Digitalization,globalization,anddemographicchangesaretransformingthenatureofworkandlabormarkets.ThisofferschallengesandopportunitiesforEurope.Involuntaryunemploymentduetostructuralchanges,inparticularyouthunemployment,isatanalarminglevelandposesadramaticthreattosocialcohesionintheEUandamajorityofitsStates.Atthesametime,peopledesiringmoreflexibilityfortheirwork-lifebalanceandforself-employmentfindevergrowingopportunitiestoarrangetheirlifeaccordingly.

TheEUinfluences,andisbeinginfluencedbythistransformationatmanylevels.Sofarthisinfluencehasbeenprimarilyattheeconomiclevel:asafreetradezone,asacurrencyunion,andasemergingfiscalandbankingunion,butalsoasafreemovementoflaborzone,andforsome,asafuturepoliticalunion.

Inordertomanagewellthetransitiontowardsthe‘FutureofWork’,theEUwillhavetoundertakegreateffortstoalsobecomea‘SocialUnion’,asalreadyoutlinedintheEuropeanThirdPillarofSocialRights.

Itisonthisbasis,thatVOXadvocatesanEUwide“MarshallPlanonWorkandLife-longEmployability”,asoneprogramtoputsuchSocialUnionintopractice.StrengtheningthesocialdimensionoftheEUisnotjustafiscalburden,assomemayseeit,butanessentialinvestmentinshort-termpovertyalleviationandlong-termcohesion,acceptability,andstabilityoftheEU.1

Inthiscontext,thispaperlooksatthreespecificareaswhichwouldbeessentialcomponentsofsuch‘MarshallPlan’andproposesforeachareapositionswhichVOXmaywanttoadopt:

A. FlexibilityandWork-LifeBalance.VOXEuropehastheopportunitytovigorouslyengagewithanewgenerationofworkingpeople,youngandold.Thisisagrowingpopulationwithalongerlife-expectancywhovoluntarily,orforcedbychanginglabormarkets,liveamoredynamicworklife,changingemployers,shiftinginandoutofself-employment,undergoingseveralcyclesoftrainingandre-training,demandmorenon-workingtime,andaboveall,moresovereigntyorcontrolovertheirtime.

Hence,VOXEuropeshouldfullyembracetheagendaasoutlinedintheproposalforaWorkingTimeChoiceAct,includingthebalancingofworkersandcompanies’flexibility

1Cf.Rinaldietal.,2016

Page 4: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

4|P a g e

needs.Particularattentionshouldbegiventothegrowingnumberofself-employed,start-ups,crowdworkers,whicharenotyetwellrepresentedpolitically,andforwhichVOXcouldbecometherecognizedvoice.

B. Life-longLearningforEmployability.VOXEuropepromotesmeasureswhichresultinhighemploymentandcontinuedemployabilityforEuropeancitizens,amidstprofoundstructuralchangesintheeconomyandsociety.Withthisintention,VOXsupportsabroadstrategytomove‘FromanUnemploymenttoanEmploymentInsurance’withare-orientationtowardsapreventiveschemefocusedonmaintainingemployability.

VOXEuropeadvocatestheimmediateadoptionof‘ErasmusPro’,aprogramtoincreaseopportunitiesforyoungpeopletoenterthelabormarketcombinedwitha‘EuropeanExperience’.Duringafirstphase,adedicatedbudgetofroughly€5 billion,wouldfundayoungEuropeanapprenticeschemethatisabletoprovide200,000two-yearlongapprenticeshipsayear2.SuchinitiativeisverysignificanttobuildappreciationfortheEuropeanideaamongayoungpopulationthatisnotreachedbytheacademicallyorientedErasmusprogram.

VOXEuropesupportsIndividualLong-TermAccountsthatsupportlife-longeducation,boostedbyaperiodicBonusforlive-longlearningandre-trainingtoprovidefinancialsupportandtimetoabroadergroupofworkers,includingfromsmallandmediumenterprises,tomaintaintheiremployability.TheBonuswouldcomethroughthecompanyandbefundedbyequivalentlowertaxesonlabor,or,incaseofunemployment,directlybythestate.Thebonuscouldbespentonawiderangeoflearningopportunitiesatthechoiceoftheindividual,includingcourses,internships,hands-ontrainings,whichenhanceemployabilityandareendorsedbythecompanyorthestate.Aceilingforthebonuswouldneedtobesetcountrybycountry(e.g.€6’000every5years).

Morebroadly,VOXEuropesupportsmeasurestomaketheEuropeanlabormarketmoretransparent,includingsettingupanEU–wideeffectiveLaborMarketInformationService.Whilelabormobilityislegallyenshrined,italsotakesdetailedinformationaboutskillneedsandjobopportunitiesinparticularregions,toenableworkerstobenefitfromanintegratedlabormarketacrossnationalandlanguagebarriers.

C. SocialProtectionandBasicIncome.Intimesofmassivechangesinlabormarketsandtheemergenceofnewmodelsofworking,itiscrucialtoadjustthemechanismsofsocialprotectionthatwerebuiltaroundtraditionalformsofemployment,inordertoprovideabasicincomethatguaranteesdecentlivingstandardsandcontributestomaintainingpoliticalandsocialcohesion.

VOXenvisionsuniversalsocialprotectionandanadequateincometobecomeacorepillarofEUPolicymaking.Thisrequiresalong-termperspectivecombinedwithshort-termactions.

Intheshortterm,VOXadvocatesthestrengtheningofexistingGuaranteedMinimumIncome(GMI)schemesacrosstheEU,initiallywithatleastamodestgoalofconvergingon

2Cf.Delorsetal.,2015

Page 5: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

5|P a g e

aminimumpovertythresholdof40%oftheequivalentnationalmedianincome(“extremepoverty”).Afundcouldbeestablished,financedattheEuropeanlevelandbyMemberStates,whereeachwouldcontributeinlinewithitsnationalwealth.Sucheffortseemseconomicallyandpoliticallybearable,consideringthelimitedsolidarityrequiredbetweenstates.Accesstotheminimumincomewouldbeconditionednotonlytoatraditionaljobsearch,butalsotoadevelopmentofanewbusinessorevenan(unpaid)socialactivity(likementorship,etc.).Theseschemescanplayavitalroleinalleviatingtheworstimpactsofpovertyandsocialexclusioninmanycountries.Inaddition,itcanwellencouragefinancialindependenceandself-responsibility.

Inparallel,VOXEuropeadvocatesinnovationinsocialprotectionschemes,thatarepreventiveandempowerpeopletobebetterequippedtoadapttorapidchangesimposedbyinnovation.

VOXendorsestheideaofaStartCapitalforeveryyoungpersonintheEU.SuchstartcapitalcanbeseenasaSocialInheritance,thatenablesayoungpersontodevelopitstalents,choseacareerorstartupabusiness,independentlyofthesocialstatusandwealthoftheparents.Someyoungpeoplemayalsosaveandgrowtheirstartcapitalforhavinglaterinlifethepossibilitytotransitiontopart-timeworkforeducationorfamilyreasons.

UnconditionalBasicIncome(UBI)isanewconceptofsocialprotection,de-linkedfromtraditionalemployment,thatisstirringacontroversialdebateandiscurrentlybeingtestedinfewEUstates.ToolittleisknownaboutUBItodecideonitsmeritsatthisstage.Therefore,VOXEuropesupportslargescaleexperimentswithUBIintheEU,andiseagertoanalysefindingsfromrigorousassessmentoftheirresults,includingaboutcosts,howtofinancethem,andabouttheeffectsonworkattitudes.

RecommendedApproach:PolicyLearningandRegulatedSelf-regulation

Developmentandimplementationofnewpoliciesforworkflexibility,lifelonglearningandsocialprotectionarealearningprocess,involvingbroadconsultations,debates,andexperimentation.

VOXEuropeadvocatesaPolicyLearningapproach.Manyaspectsofnewpolicies,includingtheireffectivenessandfutureimpact,includingunintendedside-effects,arenotfullyunderstoodorknown.Deliberatespacesforexperimentation(“Sandboxes”)areneededatthelevelofspecificcompaniesorselectsectors.Withinthesespaces,timeboundpilotscanbeundertaken,testingdifferentpolicyoptions,accompaniedbycarefulscientificmonitoring.Theattitudeisoneofdeliberaterisktaking,rigorousevaluation,andcouragetodropfailedeffortsafterastricttimelimit.ThiswillprovideanessentialfoundationtotheprofoundpolicyreformsneededforatransitiontowardstheFutureofWork3.

Giventhelargevarietyofworkerpreferences,companyneeds,andnationalcircumstances,thereisnomore‘typicalworker’or‘normalworkingcondition’.Itwillthereforebealmostimpossibletodeveloplawsandregulationsandofferingeffectivesolutionsforallpossiblesituations.Instead,policiesshouldstrive,whereappropriate,towardsaRegulatedSelf-regulation4,whichprovideslegal3Cf.BMAS,2017.Fromnowonquotedas‘Weissbuch’.4Weissbuch,p.120

Page 6: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

6|P a g e

boundariesandbasicprotections,butleavesittothesocialpartnerstofindbalancedsolutionstotheirspecificsituation.Thosenegotiationswilltypicallybeofacollectivenaturebetweenworkersandemployers.Collectiveagreementswillgenerallystrengthenthenegotiationpositionofindividualworkers,inparticularthoseinunstableemploymentorself-employmentsituations.

StrategicPolicyOpportunityforVOXEurope:AdvocateforanEU‘SocialUnion’

ThedesiretostrengthentheEUtobecomeaneffectiveandtrustedfoundationforbuildingapeacefulandprosperouscommunityofEuropeancountriesunderpinstheinitiativeofcreatingtheVOXEuropepoliticalparty.

PublicattitudestowardtheEUareratherlacklusteratthismoment.ImplementationoftheEPSRthrougheffectivepoliciesatEuropeanlevelcouldgreatlyboostpublicsupportfor,andvisibilityof,theEU,andinspireanewsenseofcommunityandidentity5.).

TheSocialPillarcanalsobeseenasanecessarycomplementtothedevelopmentoftheEuropeansinglemarket,theintroductionofasinglecurrency,andthefreedominmovement.

VOXEuropehasheretheopportunitytoprofileitselfasanadvocateforaEuropeanapproachtoSocialDevelopment,withpracticalminimumstandardsofsocialprotectionandofdecentworkandpay,leadingtowardsasuccessfuldigitaltransformationwhichcontributesbothtogreaterprosperityandbetterworkingconditionswithintheEU.

5Weissbuch,p.185

Page 7: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

7|P a g e

1 Contents 2 Introduction....................................................................................................................................9

3 Context:TransformationofLaborMarketsandtheWayWeWork.............................................10

3.1 Digitalization.........................................................................................................................10

3.2 DemographicChanges..........................................................................................................10

3.3 ChangingValuesregardingWork..........................................................................................11

3.4 Polarizationoflabormarketopportunities...........................................................................13

3.4.1 TherearesignificantdifferencesamongthestatesoftheUnion.................................13

3.4.2 Inequalityincreasedfrom2006to2011intwo-thirdsofEUMemberStates,withgrowingdivergence.......................................................................................................................15

3.4.3 Besideswages,capitalincomecontributedmosttorisingincomeinequality.............15

4 ChallengesandOpportunities.......................................................................................................17

4.1 Challenges:............................................................................................................................17

4.2 Opportunities:.......................................................................................................................17

5 EU–EuropeanPillarofSocialRights(EPSR)–aPointofReference..............................................18

6 VoxPrinciples................................................................................................................................20

7 StrategicPolicyAreas....................................................................................................................20

7.1 FlexibilityandWork-LifeBalance..........................................................................................21

7.1.1 Definition.......................................................................................................................21

7.1.2 Issues,TradeOffs,Tensions..........................................................................................21

7.1.3 PolicyOptions:WorkingTimeChoiceAct.....................................................................23

7.1.4 ProposedPositionforVOXEurope................................................................................25

7.2 LifelongLearningtoMaintainEmployability.........................................................................26

7.2.1 Definition.......................................................................................................................26

7.2.2 Issues,TradeOffs,Tensions..........................................................................................26

7.2.3 PolicyOptions................................................................................................................28

7.2.4 ProposedPositionforVOXEurope................................................................................32

7.3 SocialProtection:MinimumGuaranteedIncome(MGI)andUniversalBasicIncome(UBI).33

7.3.1 Definitions.....................................................................................................................33

7.3.2 Issues,TradeOffs,Tensions..........................................................................................34

7.3.3 PolicyOptions–UnconditionalBasicIncome(UBI).......................................................35

7.3.4 PolicyOptions-GuaranteedMinimumIncome(GMI)..................................................42

7.3.5 ProposedVOXPosition..................................................................................................46

8 Conclusion.....................................................................................................................................48

Page 8: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

8|P a g e

9 Annexes.........................................................................................................................................50

9.1 Annex1:EuropeanPillarofSocialRights..............................................................................50

9.2 Annex2:LegalRegulationsontheOrganizationofWorkingTime:TheEuropeanWorkingTimeDirective...................................................................................................................................55

9.3 Annex3:SurveyonEuropeanAttitudestowardsUnconditionalBasicIncome....................57

10 ListofReferences..........................................................................................................................65

Page 9: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

9|P a g e

2 Introduction

ThepurposeofthispaperistosupportthedevelopmentofapoliticalpartyprogramfortheemergingVOXEuropeParty.

Thetopicofthispaperisthe‘FutureofWork’.Thisisanimmenselybroadtopic,andthispaperdoesnotclaimtoofferacomprehensivetreatmentofthesubject.

Hence,theapproachtothispaperisselective,withtheintentionto:

• Identifypolicygaps,i.e.areasofemergingimportanceattheEUlevel,forwhichpoliciesstillneedtobeformulated,andwhichofferVOXanopportunitytogainadistinguishingprofile;and

• Identifypoliticallyunderservedorunder-representedtargetgroups,affectedby,orinvolvedin,thetransformationoflabormarkets,forwhichVOXmaybecomeanattractivevoiceinthepoliticallandscape.

Inthoseareasandforthosegroups,thispaperscansthepoliticallandscapeandsignificantactors,identifiesmajortrends,keyissues,andtheprincipalideas,onhowtoaddressthem.ItthendiscussesoptionsfortheVOXPartytopositionitselfandrecommendsapolicystand,fordebateandadoptionbythepartymembers.ThisfirstdraftdrawsheavilyontheWhitePaperWork4.0,theresultofabroadconsultationprocessinGermanyorganizedbyitsMinistryofLaborandSocialAffairsandkeystudiesbytheEuropeanUnion.Throughoutfullsectionshavebeencopied,whereitseemedconceptuallyrelevant.Thefindingsandrecommendationsmustthereforebecriticallyreviewedwithaviewtotheirrelevancetoothercountries,and/ortheirvalidityasdesirable‘futureofwork’,andhencepolicydirectionsforVOXEurope.

Page 10: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

10|P a g e

3 Context: Transformation of Labor Markets and the Way We Work Labormarkets,andmorebroadlythewaywework,areundergoingaprofoundtransformation.Keydriversforthistransformationinclude:

3.1 Digitalization Newtechnologieshavethepotentialtoupendmuchofwhatweknowaboutthewaypeoplework.Butdisruptionisanopportunityaswellasachallenge

• Proportionofoccupationthatcanbefullyautomatedisactuallysmall–lessthan5percent…• Partialautomationwillaffectalmostalloccupationstoagreaterorlesserdegree…• About60percentofalloccupationhaveatleast30percentofactivitiesthataretechnically

automatable…• Onaglobalscale,…theadaptationofcurrentlydemonstratedautomationtechnologycould

affect50percentoftheworldeconomy,or1,2billionemployees.6

Thereisawidedebatewhethernewtechnologiescreateordestroyjobsonaglobalbasis.However,thepointisthattheyareforsuredisruptiveandataspeedunknownsofar.Overallcommunitiescanbeimpacted,withnoexceptionbygeography,orindustry,orage,etc.Thesecommunitiesneedanswersandperspectivesinameaningfullifehorizon,thatmeansalsointheshort-term.

3.2 Demographic Changes

Oneofthenotablechangesinthelabormarketsisthegrowingparticipationofolderpeopleintheworkforce.Generationaldiversitywilllikelycontinuetodefinetheworkforce,witholderworkersrepresentingoneofthefastest-growingsegments.Providingtargetedtrainingsolutionsthatmeettheirneedsandlearningstylescanbeimportantinensuringcontinuedproductivitythroughoutaworker’scareer.Researchshowsthatyoungerandolderadultshavesomewhatdifferentlearningstyles.Therefore,organizationsshouldconsiderputtingdevelopmentprogramsinplacetomeetthesevaryinggenerationalneeds.

6Cf.Manyika,2017

Page 11: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

11|P a g e

AgeingPopulation

3.3 Changing Values regarding Work

Thereisagrowingdiversityinvaluesandexpectationstowardswork.Nexttosecurityandgoodremuneration,morecontrolovertimingofwork(‘timesovereignty’)isemergingasanimportantadditionalpriorityamongworkingpeople.

Thegraphbelow7offersacategorizationofthisrangeofexpectations,withinafieldoffourcorevalues:Stability–Performance–PersonalDevelopment–CommonGood.Thesecorevaluesmaypartiallycompetewitheachother(e.g.prosperitythroughhighincomevsmeaningfulnessthroughjobsdedicatedtocommongood,butpoorlypaid.)

7Weissbuch,p.35

Page 12: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

12|P a g e

Furthermore,theperceptionsofwhatisadesirablefutureandwhatnot,canbediametricallyopposed:whatiscomfortingstabilitytosome,canbeboringconformitytoothers,andwhatisstrivingfortopperformancetosomemaybefeltasstruggleforexistencetoothers.

Asthefollowinggraphillustrate,thereisnohomogeneitybutawiderangeofvaluesshapingthefutureworldofwork.

Page 13: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

13|P a g e

3.4 Polarization of labor market opportunities

Theworldofworkisinastateofflux,whichiscausingconsiderableanxiety—andwithgoodreason.Thereisgrowingpolarizationoflabor-marketopportunitiesbetweenhigh-andlow-skilljobs,unemploymentandunderemploymentespeciallyamongyoungpeople,stagnatingincomesforalargeproportionofhouseholds,andincomeinequality.Migrationanditseffectsonjobshasbecomeasensitivepoliticalissueinmanyadvancedeconomies.AndfromMumbaitoManchester,publicdebateragesaboutthefutureofworkandwhethertherewillbeenoughjobstogainfullyemployeveryone.8

PolarizationshowsupalsoinEurope:

3.4.1 There are significant differences among the states of the Union

Itisveryimportanttoincreaseconsciousnessofthedifferentstatusquoofthememberstates.

Amongothers,thisisevidentforinstancewhenwelookatUnemploymentrateintheUnion:

8Cf.Manyika,2017

Page 14: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

14|P a g e

Source:Eurostat–Aug2017

DivergenceinUnemploymentrates(2002–2013),%9

9Cf.EuropeanCommission,2015

Note:EU-15Center:Belgium,Luxembourg,theNetherlands,Germany,Finland,France,Austria;EU-15North:Denmark,Sweden,UnitedKingdom;EU-15South:Greece,Ireland,Portugal,Spain,Italy;EU-13North:CzechRepublic,Hungary,Poland,SloveniaandSlovakia;EU-13South:Bulgaria,Cyprus,Estonia,Latvia,Lithuania,Malta,Croatia,Romania.

Page 15: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

15|P a g e

OneofthemostseriousdivergencesbetweenEuropeancountriesthatthecrisisandtheyearsfollowingithavehighlightedisthatthereareseriousgapsinthesocialwelfaresystemsofmanyEuropeancountries,whichoftenleavepeoplewhoareunemployedorlong-termunemployedwithlittleornosafetynetandcausegreathardshipinsomecountries,typicallyintheSouth.TheEuropeanCommissionhasnotedthatsomeoftheMemberStatesthathavebeenmostresilientduringthecrisishavehighlevelsofemploymentprotectionlegislation,particularlyGermany,Sweden,theNetherlandsandtheCzechRepublic(2015a).10

3.4.2 Inequality increased from 2006 to 2011 in two-thirds of EU Member States, with growing divergence

TheanalysisusingEU-SILCmicrodatashowsthatbetween2006and2011,inequalityhasincreasedinapproximatelytwo-thirdsoftheEUcountries…,decreasingintherest…Anadditionalfindingisthatinmostcountriesinequalityhasincreasedinthebottompartofthedistributionandnotonlyinthetoppartaspredictedbytheliterature.11

Whenincomeinequalityisexamined,thereisconcernaboutthewidedispersionandgrowingdivergenceininequalitybetweenmemberstates(EuropeanCommission2013).Theincomeinequalityrate(S80/20indicator)increasedin16memberstatesanddecreasedin5(stayingstaticintheremaining7countries)between2013and2014…

3.4.3 Besides wages, capital income contributed most to rising income inequality

Whenanalyzingtherelativecontributionofchangesininequalityofthefollowingcomponents:

• incomefrompaidemployment,• incomefromself-employment,• transfers,• otherincome(mainlycapital),and• taxes

Theobtainedevidenceshowsthatalthoughthemostimportantcomponentofincomeinequalityiswageinequality,theincomesourcethathascontributedmosttotheincreaseinoverallincomeinequalityiscapitalincome,whiletaxeshavecontributedtodecreasingincomeinequalityandtransfershavebeenneutral.12

10Cf.Healy,201711Cf.Dregeretal.,201512Ibid.

Page 16: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

16|P a g e

Thesenseofurgency

Thispolarizationoflabormarketopportunitiesisoneofthemainthreatstothesocialcohesion,andtotheadhesiontotheEuropeanideals.Itfosterspopulistreceiptstothepeoplediscontentandamplifytheissuesrelatedtoimmigration.

23 millionjoblesspeople,ofwhich12 millioninlong-termunemployment,representacatastropheforEurope;daybydaythisleadstoadestructionofhumancapitalwhichisdetrimentaltotheEuropeanproject,tothewellbeingofEuropeanpeopleandtothecompetitivenessofEuropeaneconomies.Nonetheless,thereisnoapparentsenseofurgencytoactfortheprotectionandrecoveryofEuropeanhumancapital.13

13Cf.Rinaldietal.,2016

Page 17: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

17|P a g e

4 Challenges and Opportunities Thetransformationoflabormarketsbringswithitnewchallengesandopportunities.

4.1 Challenges: • ForWorkers:

o InvoluntaryUnemploymentoverextendedperiodsduetostructural(e.g.decliningsectors)andtechnologicalchanges(e.g.automatization)reducingdemandforlaborincertainsectorsandmakingprofessionsobsolete.(ENDOFWORKDEBATE)

o Ongoingpressuretoupgradequalityofskillsandtrainingtomeetrisingqualificationexpectations

o Periodicpressurestore-orientprofessionalqualificationstoadjusttostructuralchanges

o Reducedjobsecurityduetolessstablecontractualarrangements.o Limitedsocialsecuritycoverageduetomorefrequentchangesorparttime

employmentsituations.

• ForBusiness:o Laborshortageofqualifiedworkers,inselectsectorsasaresultofdemographic

changewithanageingpopulation.o Pressureformoreefficiencycostcuttingfromincreasedinternationalcompetition.o Pressurefromconsumersforquickerturnaroundanddeliverytimesandfor

customizeddesigns.

4.2 Opportunities: • Forworkers

o Digitalizationoffersnewpossibilitiesforincreased‘timesovereignty’,i.e.influenceonhowmuchtimeandwhentowork.Demandformoretimesovereigntyisinpartdrivenbyvoluntaryshiftstowardsnewwork-lifemodels,tradingreducedincomeforadditionalself-determinedtime.

o Increasedlocationflexibility,i.e.choiceofworkingfromhome,remoteoffice,orcommonoffice.

• ForBusiness:o Flexibleworkingarrangementsallowtoattractadditionalworkerstothelabor

market(youngparents),orkeepqualifiedandexperiencedlaborforlongerperiods(e.g.olderpeople).

Page 18: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

18|P a g e

5 EU –European Pillar of Social Rights (EPSR) – a Point of Reference

AsVOXEuropestronglyidentifieswiththeEuropeanIdea,theeffortsatEUleveltodefinethesocialagenda,includingthefutureofwork,carriesparticularweight.

ThissectionfocusesontheEuropeanPillarofSocialRightsandhighlightstheprinciplesthatseemparticularlyrelevanttothetopicofthisVOXpaper.

“TheEuropeanParliamentcalledforasolidEuropeanPillarofSocialRightstoreinforcesocialrightsanddeliverapositiveimpactonpeople'slivesintheshortandmediumtermandenablesupportforEuropeanconstructioninthe21stcentury.Theleadersof27MemberStatesandoftheEuropeanCouncil,theEuropeanParliamentandtheEuropeanCommissionmadeacommitmenttoworktowardsasocialEuropeintheRomeagenda.ThesocialpartnershavecommittedtocontinuecontributingtoaEuropethatdeliversforitsworkersandenterprises.

TheaimoftheEuropeanPillarofSocialRightsistoserveasaguidetowardsefficientemploymentandsocialoutcomeswhenrespondingtocurrentandfuturechallengeswhicharedirectlyaimedatfulfillingpeople'sessentialneeds,andensuringbetterenactmentandimplementationofsocialrights.”14

ThePrinciplesthathaveparticularrelevancetothetopic‘FutureofWork’include(seeAnnex1foracompletelistofEPSRprinciples)15:

1. Education,trainingandlife-longlearningEveryonehastherighttoqualityandinclusiveeducation,trainingandlife-longlearninginordertomaintainandacquireskillsthatenablethemtoparticipatefullyinsocietyandmanagesuccessfullytransitionsinthelabourmarket.

4.Activesupporttoemploymenta. Everyonehastherighttotimelyandtailor-madeassistancetoimproveemploymentor

self-employmentprospects.Thisincludestherighttoreceivesupportforjobsearch,trainingandre-qualification.Everyonehastherighttotransfersocialprotectionandtrainingentitlementsduringprofessionaltransitions.

b. Youngpeoplehavetherighttocontinuededucation,apprenticeship,traineeshiporajobofferofgoodstandingwithin4monthsofbecomingunemployedorleavingeducation.

14Cf.EuropeanCommission,201715Ibid.

Page 19: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

19|P a g e

c. Peopleunemployedhavetherighttopersonalised,continuousandconsistentsupport.Thelong-termunemployedhavetherighttoanin-depthindividualassessmentatthelatestat18monthsofunemployment.

5.Secureandadaptableemploymenta. Regardlessofthetypeanddurationoftheemploymentrelationship,workershavethe

righttofairandequaltreatmentregardingworkingconditions,accesstosocialprotectionandtraining.Thetransitiontowardsopen-endedformsofemploymentshallbefostered.

b. Inaccordancewithlegislationandcollectiveagreements,thenecessaryflexibilityforemployerstoadaptswiftlytochangesintheeconomiccontextshallbeensured.

c. Innovativeformsofworkthatensurequalityworkingconditionsshallbefostered.Entrepreneurshipandself-employmentshallbeencouraged.Occupationalmobilityshallbefacilitated.

d. Employmentrelationshipsthatleadtoprecariousworkingconditionsshallbeprevented,includingbyprohibitingabuseofatypicalcontracts.

9.Work-lifebalanceParentsandpeoplewithcaringresponsibilitieshavetherighttosuitableleave,flexibleworkingarrangementsandaccesstocareservices.Womenandmenshallhaveequalaccesstospecialleavesofabsenceinordertofulfiltheircaringresponsibilitiesandbeencouragedtousetheminabalancedway.12.SocialprotectionRegardlessofthetypeanddurationoftheiremploymentrelationship,workers,and,undercomparableconditions,theself-employed,havetherighttoadequatesocialprotection.

14.MinimumincomeEveryonelackingsufficientresourceshastherighttoadequateminimumincomebenefitsensuringalifeindignityatallstagesoflife,andeffectiveaccesstoenablinggoodsandservices.Forthosewhocanwork,minimumincomebenefitsshouldbecombinedwithincentivesto(re)integrateintothelabourmarket.15.Oldageincomeandpensionsa. Workersandtheself-employedinretirementhavetherighttoapensioncommensurate

totheircontributionsandensuringanadequateincome.b. Womenandmenshallhaveequalopportunitiestoacquirepensionrights.c. Everyoneinoldagehastherighttoresourcesthatensurelivingindignity.

Page 20: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

20|P a g e

6 Vox Principles

TheEuropeanPillarofSocialRightsforms,intheviewoftheAuthor,isavalidstartingpointandframeworkforarticulatingVoxEurope’sownvaluesandprincipleswithregardto‘FutureofWork’.Theseprinciplesseektobalanceseveralvalues,including:

• CompetitiveSocialMarketEconomy• DecentWorkandPay• EfficientState• InclusiveSocietyofferingEqualOpportunities

ThedesiretostrengthentheEUtobecomeaneffectiveandtrustedfoundationforbuildingapeacefulandprosperouscommunityofEuropeancountriesunderpinstheinitiativeofcreatingtheVOXEuropepoliticalparty.

PublicattitudestowardtheEUareratherlacklusteratthismoment.ImplementationoftheEPSRthrougheffectivepoliciesatEuropeanlevelcouldgreatlyboostpublicsupportfor,andvisibilityof,theEU,andinspireanewsenseofcommunityandidentity16.

TheSocialPillarcanalsobeseenasanecessarycomplementtothedevelopmentoftheEuropeansinglemarket,theintroductionofasinglecurrency,andthefreedominmovement.

VOXEuropehasheretheopportunitytoprofileitselfasanadvocateforaEuropeanapproachtoSocialDevelopment,withpracticalminimumstandardsofsocialprotectionandofdecentworkandpay,leadingtowardsasuccessfuldigitaltransformationwhichcontributesbothtogreaterprosperityandbetterworkingconditionswithintheEU.

Inthefollowingchapters,thispaperfocusesonthreeselectedpolicyareasandpoliciesthatareessentialbuildingblocksforputtingtheEPSRprinciplesintopractice.

7 Strategic Policy Areas

Inthefollowing,thispaperfocusesonthreepolicyareas,whicharehighlyrelevantfortheFutureofWork,arestillbeingdeveloped,andaddressnewgroups,sofarnotyetfullyrepresentedinthepoliticalspectrum.

• FlexibilityandWork-LifeBalance• LifelongLearningtoMaintainEmployability• SocialProtectionandBasicIncome

16Weissbuch,p.185

Page 21: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

21|P a g e

7.1 Flexibility and Work-Life Balance

7.1.1 Definition

Flexibilityhas(atleast)twoverydistinctmeaningsinthecontextofworkandlabormarkets:

• Theterm‚flexibility‘inthecontextoflabormarketswasinthepast‘owned’byemployers,seekingoptionsforswiftlyadjustingthequantityandqualityoflabortochangingdemandinthemarketplace.

• Today,‘flexibility’isbecomingacatchwordforworkers,seekingmorecontrolovertheir

time(‘timesovereignty’)17,includingworkinghoursflexibilityintheirdaily,annual,andlifetimeworkingarrangements.

Inthischapterwefocusonthelatter.Inparticular,weaskhowincreasedflexibilityforworkingpeoplewithregardtotimingandlocationofworkinresponsetoshiftingwork–lifepatternsandpriorities,canbebalancedwithadecentlevelofsocialprotectionandwithcompanyneedsforremaininginternationallycompetitive.

7.1.2 Issues, Trade Offs, Tensions

• Workinghourinflexibility.Whatthisstatisticdoesnotreveal,isthatmanyworkersarenotsatisfiedwiththeamountofworktheyhave.BasedonasurveyinGermany,18halfoffull-timeemployeeswouldliketoreducetheirworkinghours,inparttoreduceunpaidovertime(onaverage5hoursperweek)andinparttoreducecontractuallyagreedtime(onaverage39hrs/week).Bycontrast,athirdofpart-timeworkers(primarilywomen)wouldliketoincreasetheirhours.

• IncreaseinPartTime.InGermany,familymodelsofworkandtimemanagementhaveevolvedwithincreasedpart-timeparticipation,inparticularofwomen(anddecliningshareofnoteconomicallyactivewomen).Ontheotherhand,theshareoftwofull-timeworkingparentshasdeclinedfromover25%tolessthan20%.Thereisastillsmallbutgrowingshareoftwopart-timeworkingparents(stilllessthan3%).Wespeculate,thatthissharewouldgrowfurther,ifthecombinedincomeprovidesanacceptableeconomicbasis.19

17Weissbuch,p.11518Weissbuch,p.7619Weissbuch,p.33

Page 22: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

22|P a g e

• Part-timetrap.The“part-timetrap”referstoasituationinwhichindividualsfindthat,althoughpart-timeemploymentreflectedtheirwishesatonephaseintheirlives,itbecomesa“trap”laterinworkinglifeastheywantbutareunabletoincreasetheirworkingtime.Thetermalsoreferstodisadvantagesinworkinglifewhichareoftenassociatedwithpart-timeemployment,suchaslowerchancesofprofessionaladvancement,lowerlevelsofparticipationincontinuingvocationaleducationandtraining,oralowerindependentincomeandsmallerpension.

• BreakdownoftheBoundariesbetweenworkandprivatelife.Theuseofmoderninformationandcommunicationtechnologiesisbreakingdowntheboundariesbetweenworkandprivatelife,withanewopennessreplacingthestructurespreviouslyimposedbythecompanyintermsoflocation,timeandorganization,intheformoffixedworkinghoursandworkplacesandthestaff’slong-termattachmenttothecompany.

Whilemoreself-determinationoftimeandlocationofworkisgenerallyseenaspositive,italsobringssomeunwelcomeeffects,i.e.anexpectationofhavingtobereachableallthetime,blurringthelinesbetweenhomeandwork,intensifyingworkpressure,andpotentiallyaffectinghealthandsafety,comparedtotraditionalclearlydefinedworkplacesandtimes.

• Flexibilityneedsofcompaniesandworkerscandiffersubstantially.Whileworkersstriveformoretimesovereigntytoaccommodatefamilyandotherlifepriorities,companiesstrive,inadditiontoworkers’satisfaction,forcosteffectiveness,staffavailability,andreliableworkquality.Companyneedsmightputatightlimittoworkers’flexibility,e.g.contactingworkersfrequentlyduringleisureorfamilytime.Inparticular,smallandmediumenterprisesmayfinditdifficulttoaccommodatetheiremployee’swishesforchangesinworkingtimeandduration,e.g.movingintoparttimeorintoanextendedsabbatical,becausethesmallnumberofstaffdoesnotallowforsmoothtemporaryadjustmentsinworkload.

• DecliningCoverageofCollectiveBargainingthroughcrowdworkingandpseudoself-employmentlabormarkets.Crowdworkinginvolveswork,usuallybrokendownintosmallertasks,beingassignedtocrowdworkersviadigitalplatforms.Workcanbeassignedeithertoacompany’sownemployees(internalcrowdworking)ortothirdparties(externalcrowdworking),whoareoftensoloself-employedpersons.Whilecrowdworkingenablesnew

Page 23: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

23|P a g e

flexibleworkmodelsandmaygivecompaniesaddedflexibilityinmanaginglabordemand,theabilityofworkerstocollectivelynegotiatelaborstandardsdeclines.Thiscallsforpolicyactiontocreateaframeworkwithminimumstandardsforcrowdworkingandsimilararrangements,whichformallyarebetweenindependentcompanies,butdefactoareadependentquasiemployeesituation.SometimesalsocalledPseudoself-employment(Pseudoorshamself-employmentexistswhencontractingpartiesdescribealegalrelationshipasself-employment,eventhoughtheactualdesignandconductoftherelationshipconstituteswageandsalaryemployment,inlegalterms.)

7.1.3 Policy Options: Working Time Choice Act

Anynewpolicytoencourageandregulatemorework-flexibilitywillhavetobalanceatleastthreeprinciples:

• Enablemoreflexible,digital,mobileformsofworking,whilealso• Protectworker’shealth,continuousemployability,andbaseincomeduringalllifestages.

And• Increasetheinternationalcompetitivenessofcompanies.

WorkingTimeChoiceAct.AWorkingTimeChoiceActwouldaddressthesedifferentprinciplesandinterestsinonepolicypackage.AdraftWorkingTimeChoiceActhasbeenproposedbytheGermanWomenLawyersAssociation.20

Theterm“workingtimechoice”referstovariousapproachesproposedinthepublicdebate.Theserangetheintroductionofworkingtimecorridors,totheuseof“workingtimechoice”asanoverarchingtermformodelsallowingflexibilityinworkingtimeandlocation,suchasflexi-timeandlong-termaccounts,alternatingteleworkortrust-basedworkingtime.Such“workingtimechoice”canbeunderstoodasentitlements,enshrinedeitherattheworkplacelevel,incollectiveagreementsorasindividualrights,foremployeestohaveasayinthelengthandschedulingoftheirworkingtimeandinthechoiceoftheirworkinglocation,onthebasisofnegotiatedflexibility.Workingtimechoiceisthusaguidingprincipleforarangeofmeasureswhichaimtoallowworkingtimetobetailoredtobetterreflectemployees’individualneeds.

SuchWorkingTimeChoiceAct,couldincludethefollowingbuildingblocks,groupedinlinewiththeabovementionedthreeprinciples:

20Cf.DJB,2016;Weissbuch,p.120

Page 24: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

24|P a g e

7.1.3.1 Enable Flexibility

• Timesovereignty,ingeneral,timesovereigntymeansthatanindividualhascontroloverhowtousehisorherowntime.Inthenarrowersense,itreferstoworkersbeingabletodeterminethelengthandschedulingoftheirworkingtime

• Trustbasedworkingtime,whereclearworkobjectivesareagreed,butnoformalattendanceortimerecordingtakesplace.Theemployercontinuesresponsibleforcompliancewithworkingtimeregulations(whichcanbechallenginginpractice).

• FamiliyWorkingTimetoallowbothparentstogointopart-time,withpossiblecompensationofreducedincomeduringspecificlife–phases(e.g.duringearlyinfancyasforeseenintheGermanParentalLeaveandAct)tobetterbalancebetweenparents’responsibilitiesforfamily,caregivingandgeneratingincome.

• Life-phaseapproach.Alife-phaseapproachtoworkingtimeenablesemployeestoreducetheirhoursincertainlifephases,e.g.whenstartingafamilyorundertakingcontinuingvocationaleducationortraining,sotheycanbetterbalancethevariousdemandsontheirtime.

• Long-termaccounts.Long-termaccounts–referredtointheGermanlawas“credits”–enableemployeesto“saveup”portionsoftheirpayortimeworkedinordertolatertaketimeoffworkforlonger,sociallyinsuredperiods.Creditscanbeusedflexiblytoallowworkerstotaketimeoffforpurposesdefinedinlegislation,suchascareleaveorparentalleave,orforpurposesagreedwiththeemployer–e.g.continuingvocationaleducationandtraining,asabbaticalorthetransitionintoretirement.Theythusenableindividualstoshapetheirownworkinglives.Thelegalprovisionspermitawiderangeofoptions.Thespecificscanbeagreedbyemployeesandemployers.

7.1.3.2 Protect Workers

• Non-reachabilityagreement,topreventundueoverworkandbreak-downoftheboundariesofwork,inparticulartolimitreachabilitytospecifictimesandsituations,thatarecompatiblewithlaborhealthandprotectionlaws,thatapplytoregularofficeorfactorybasedworkarrangements.

• GeneralRighttoTemporaryPart-TimeWork,tofacilitatelife-phaseappropriateadaptationofworkingtime,withoutfallingintopart-timetrap,i.e.difficultiestoreturntofulltimework.InGermany,suchinitiativeformspartofthe2013to2017CDU/SPDcoalitionagreement.

• ExtendSocialSecurityCoveragetoSelf-employed.Includingself-employedindividuals(inparticularstart-upentrepreneurs,crowdworkers,andthoseinemployee-likedependency)inthecommunityofsolidarityofthestatutorypensioninsurancesystemwouldgivethemthesamerightsandobligationsasallotherinsuredpersons.Thestatutorypensioninsuranceobligationshouldapplyprimarilytoyoungerpeoplewhoenterself-employmentaftertheobligationentersintoforce.Thereshouldalsobegreaterscopetoreducecontributionswhilesettingupanewbusinessandinperiodswithlowearnings.Inaddition,thosewhoarealreadycoveredbyanobligatorysystem,orotherpre-existingvoluntaryarrangementsforoldageincome,shouldbeentitledtoreceiveanexemptionfromtheobligationofcoveragebythestatutorypensioninsurancesystem.Thisappliesi.e.tofarmersandfreelancerswhoinmanycountriesarecoveredbyprofessionalretirementschemes,suchaslawyers.

Page 25: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

25|P a g e

7.1.3.3 Company Competitiveness

• RelaxexistingEUWorkingTimeDirectivetomeetcompanyneeds.Aconditional,limitedrelaxationoftheWorkingTimeDirective’scurrentprovisionsonthemaximumdailyworkingtimeandrestperiodsshouldbepossible,attheworker’soremployer’sinstigation,ifthefollowingconditionsaremet:

•Acollectiveagreementmustpermitthisrelaxationofthelaw,canlimitittocertaingroupsofworkers,anddefinemorespecificrequirementsforworkingtimechoiceattheworkplacelevel.

•Aworksagreementaboutworkingtimechoicemustbeinplace.Ataminimum,thismustincludeclearrulesontherecordingofworkingtimeandtheconductingofriskassessments.

•Theemployeesconcernedmustalsogivetheirindividualconsenttothisrelaxationofthelaw.

•Thisrelaxationofthelawmustbetiedtoorganisations’willingnesstoevaluate,orarrangeforotherstoevaluate,theresultingimpactsandtomakethefindingsavailabletotheGovernment.

Theimplementationofthisincreaseinflexibilitymustgohandinhandwithnewprotectiverights.Forexample,thiscouldmeanthatthestatutorymaximumten-hourdailyworkingtimemaybeexceededtwiceatmost,providedthatthisdoesnotleadtotheworkerexceedingtheaveragemaximumweeklyworkingtimeof48hours,andthattheworkerisgivenadayoffnolaterthanthefollowingweek.Inanycase,theexistingreferenceperiods,overwhichanaverageofeighthoursperworkingdaymaynotbeexceeded,shouldbedefinedmuchmorenarrowly.

• Workintensification.Workintensificationdescribesanincreaseintheworkwhichis,orhastobe,carriedoutinaspecificperiodoftime.Itcanbecausedbyariseintimeandperformancepressureduetofactorssuchasstaffshortages,rationalisation,phasesofhighworkloadinthecompany,orchangedworkflows.TherelaxationoftheWorkingTimeDirectivewouldallowcompaniestorespondtosuchsituationsinaflexibleway.

7.1.4 Proposed Position for VOX Europe

VOXEuropehastheopportunitytovigorouslyengagewithanewgenerationofworkingpeopleinEurope,whichfaceverydiverselabormarketsintheirdifferentcountriesandhaveverydiverseaspirationsconcerningwork.

Workerswith‘traditionalexpectations’ofstablelife-longemploymentwithdecentpay,arealreadycateredforbyexistingpoliticalparties.ThereislittleroomforVOXtoofferadifferentpolicyprogramforthisgroup.

However,thereisagrowingpopulationwhovoluntarily,orforcedbychanginglabormarkets,liveamoredynamicworklife,changingemployers,shiftinginandoutofself-employment,undergoing

Page 26: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

26|P a g e

severalcyclesoftrainingandre-training,demandmorenon-workingtime,andaboveall,moresovereigntyorcontrolovertheirtime.

Thisgroupmayalsoovertime,voluntarilyorinvoluntarily,lookbeyondtheirnationalbordersattheEuropeanlabormarketastheirpointofreference,andwillwantflexibilityandsupporttoexploreopportunitieswithinthiswiderfield.

Thismoredynamicworkingpopulationismuchlesscateredforbythetraditionalparties,whicharegrapplingthemselveswithunderstandingthesenewtrends,suchashappenedinGermanywiththeWorking4.0consultationprocess.VOXhashereadvantagesovertraditionalparties:thesehavetobecarefulnottooffendtheirtraditionalpoliticalclientele,thatoftenresiststherapidchanges,suchaslaborunionsgenerallyresistflexibilizationofworkingtimes,orcompaniesoftenresistofferingworkerstoshiftbetweenfullandparttime.

Hence,VOXEuropeshouldfullyembracetheagendaoftheWorkingTimeChoiceAct,includingthebalancingofworkersandcompanies’flexibilityneeds.

Particularattentionshouldbegiventothegrowingnumberofself-employed,start-ups,crowdworkers,whicharenotyetwellrepresentedpolitically,andforwhichVOXcouldbecometherecognizedvoice.

AparticularchallengewillbetheharmonizationofsuchnewrulesacrossEurope,whichagainshouldbeaVOXEuropepriority.Theapproach,however,shouldnotbetopushforasimultaneousharmonization,butrathervisionaryimageofthefutureofworkwithclearsteps

7.2 Lifelong Learning to Maintain Employability

7.2.1 Definition.

LifelongLearningreferstoacleardepartureofatraditionalthree-stagelifemodel,withschooling/studies,work-life,andretirement,towardslife-modelwhichallowsforseveralcyclesoflearningandworking,sabbaticals,oroff-timetocareforfamilymembers,etc.

Employability.Employabilityisgenerallyunderstoodastheabilitytoparticipateinworkinglife.Individualemployabilitydependsontherequirementsoftheworkingworld,ontheonehand,andtheindividual’spersonal,specialist,socialandmethodologicalskills,personalhealthandabilitytowork,ontheother.

7.2.2 Issues, Trade Offs, Tensions Asoccupationsandsectorsaretransforming,itbecomesmoreimportanttomaintaintheemployabilityofworkersthroughlife-longlearning.Inparallel,theshortageofskilledworkersincertainsectors,requiresimprovedaccessandgreaterreachofjobqualificationmeasuresforalargergroupofworkers.

Page 27: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

27|P a g e

Itbecomesmoreandmoreclearthatemployabilityandlife-longlearningisadirectresponsibilityandpreoccupationofeachindividual.

Thepathofchangeintechnology,economyandthereforeworkissorapidthatnobodycansimplydelegatehisorheremployabilitytoasinglecompanyorthetraditionaleducationsystem,thatcannotguaranteethatskillsandcompetenciesrequiredbypresentjobswillremainvalidandrequiredforever.

Nevertheless,theroleandresponsibilityofpublicinstitutionsandemployersremainfundamental:theyhavetocreatetheconditions,transparencyandstimulustosupporttheeffortofeachindividualtofindhis/herpersonalpathforalife-longlearningandemployability.

Thereisbroadconsensusacrossthepoliticalspectrum,aboutthenecessitythatactionisneededatfourlevelstoimprovethecontinuingvocationaleducationandtrainingsystem.

• Improveopportunitiesforaccesstojobtrainingandre-training,inparticularbysofardisadvantagedgroups,suchasolderworkersandunskilledworkers.

• Expandtheofferofjobandtrainingcounselling,• Bettercoordinateandsystematizetheofferoftrainingacrossdifferentinstitutions,and• Expandtheuseofblendedlearning,includingforworkflowintegratedlearning.

Opportunitiesforaccess:whiletherehasbeenprogressmadeinrecentyearsinsomecountries,e.g.Germany,accesshasbeenhighlyuneven:peopleovertheageof50,low-skilledpeople,peoplewithamigrantbackground,employeesofsmallcompanies,andtemporaryagencyworkerstakepartincontinuingtrainingmuchmorerarelythanothers.

Informationandcounselling:typically,somecounselingisprovidedbyGovernmentemploymentagenciesandanumberofnon-governmentalentities,suchaschambersoradulteducationcenters.However,thereisnonationwide,letaloneEuropewide,networkofindependent,low-thresholdcounsellingcenters;noraretherebindingqualitystandardsfortheprovisionofcounsel.Thedegreeofprofessionalizationamongcounsellorsalsovarieswidely.

Systematization.Thecontinuingtraininglandscapeisquiteheterogeneous,shapedbyvariousinstitutionsandeducationaltraditions.Thishinderscooperationbetweenpublic,in-companyandexternalcontinuingtraininginstitutions.

BlendedLearning.Digitalizationisgeneratingneworevolvedformatsforcontinuingtraining,suchasblendedlearning.Thesenewformsoflearningallowgreaterflexibilityinwhenandwherecontinuingtrainingtakesplace,andpromotelearningintheworkplace.Computer-basedtrainingpavesthewayforworkflow-integratedlearning.Thiscutscostsandallowsforimmediateapplicationofnewlyacquiredcapabilities.Digitalassistanceandtutoringsystemsgofurtherandoffertheworkerindividuallytailoredassistanceandexplanationswithintheproductionprocess.Newcontinuingtrainingformatsandsystemscanhelptoimpartcontentinappropriatewaysforspecifictargetgroupsandages.Part-timeemploymentmustnotimplicatealowerlevelofparticipationincontinuingvocationaleducationandtraining.21

21Weissbuch,p.108

Page 28: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

28|P a g e

Therearesomespecificchallenges,thatnewpoliciesneedtoparticularlyfocuson:

• Limitedaccessbylowerskilledworkers.Specialattentionmustbedevotedtothefactthatlow-skilledworkersinparticularareofteninvolvedinhighlyconcentratedworkprocesseswithfixedcycles,withlittleflexibilitytoengageincontinuingtrainingintheirday-to-daywork.

• LimitedtrainingcapacityofSmallandMediumSizedEnterprises(SME).SMEsfinditmoredifficulttoofferin-housetraining,freeupstafftimefortraining,orfinanceexternalcontinuoustrainingfortheirstaff.

7.2.3 Policy Options

PolicyOptionstoenablelife-longtrainingforemployabilityrangefromincrementalimprovementsofexistingsystems,tolegalchangesthatenablebroaderparticipation,toafundamentalre-orientationawayfromanunemploymentinsurancetowardsapreventiveemploymentinsurance.

FromUnemploymenttoEmploymentInsurance.Theoverallobjectiveistoestablishanemploymentinsurance,thathelpsmaintainemployabilitybysupportingtransitionswithinpeople’sworkinglivesbyrepeatedperiodsofvocationaleducationandtraining.Thisincludessupportforprofessionaldevelopmentandforinnovativerisktaking,suchasstartingupacompany.Thefocuswillbeonpreventativeaction,informedbymonitoringoflabormarketdevelopments,improvedaccesstocounseling,awiderofferofjob-relevanttraining,togiveaccessindependentlyofage,sizeofcompany,oremploymentstatus.22

Specificmeasuresunderthisoverallstrategycouldincludethefollowing.

7.2.3.1 Policy Options - Immediately adopt Erasmus Pro: 200 thousand apprenticeships a year

ProposedistheimmediateadoptionofawiderYoungEuropeanApprenticesscheme,theErasmusPro.AsmobilityisacoreEUcompetence,itisreasonabletoexpectamoreambitiousplanonapprenticeshipthattheEAfA,whichiscurrentlyinplace.Adedicatedbudgetofroughly€5 billion(orapprox.800€permonthperyoungpeople),wouldfundayoungEuropeanapprenticeschemethatisabletoprovide200thousandtwo-yearlongapprenticeshipsayear23.

MobilityliesattheheartoftheEuropeanUnion’scalling.Fromtheveryoutsetitsmissionhasbeentofacilitatethefreecirculationofpeopleingeneraland(thoughthismaybelesswell-known)alsoofyoungworkers(seeArticle50intheTreatyofRome).

Majortextshavebeenapprovedandmobilityschemeshavebeenadopted,themostemblematicofwhichisunquestionablytheErasmusprogram,whichhasallowedover3millionstudentstopursueapartoftheirstudiesinauniversityinadifferentmemberstate.

22Weissbuch,p.10923Cf.Delorsetal.(2015)

Page 29: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

29|P a g e

WhatEuropehasprovencapableofdoinginthepastforitsfutureuniversitygraduateswiththeErasmusprogram,itcanandmustdoagaintodayforitslessqualifiedyoungpeople,whoareinevitablytheonesworsthitbyunemployment.

• DescriptionoftheProgram:

AnewEuropeanmobilityprogram:ErasmusPro:ToallowonemillionyoungEuropeanstogainaprofessionalqualificationinadifferentEuropeancountryby2020.

Theyoungpeopleinvolvedwillbetakeninbyatrainingcenterandabusinessinthehostcountryforaperiodstretchingfromtwotothreeyears,withongoingsupportfromtheirregionsoforigin.

TheErasmusProprogrammustbeextremelyambitiousinitsaimsifitistotriggeramobilizingeffectinyoungpeopleandbusinessesandifitistohaveanimpactonyouthunemploymentinEurope:henceaimforatleast200,000new“youngEuropeanapprentices”ayear!

itlieswithinthememberstates’graspifweconsiderboththevacantapprenticeshipsavailabletodayandthepotentialforcreatingnewposts.

Overandabovethescheme’spotentialforboostingtheofferincountriesfacingalabourshortage,hundredsofthousandsofnewpostswillbecreatedeveryyearbetweennowand2020incountriescurrentlydevelopingtheirapprenticeshipsystems.

• Goals:Ø Unemployedyoungpeopletobenefitfromtheprospectofajobinthoseregionswhere

apprenticeshipoffersgounansweredØ Foranyyoungpersontoachievequalifyingtraining,toenhancetheiremployability

combinedwiththeirownpersonalenrichmentofa‘Europeanexperience’–thiswouldcontributetothedevelopmentofEurope’shumancapital;

Ø Toimproveapprenticeship’simageinEurope,therebyhelpingtoensurethesuccessofthenationalreformscurrentlyinhandaimingtodevelopthiskindoftraining.

• Howtheprogramworks:mobilizingyoungpeopleandbusinesses

TheErasmusProprogrammustoffer:

o AccesstoalloffersavailablethroughouttheEU;theseofferswouldberelayedviatheEURESnetwork24,nationalemploymentagenciesandeverypossiblepublicorprivateprofessionaland/oryouthtraininginstitution.Theyoungpersoninvolvedmustbeabletobenefitfromtheassistanceofanationalemploymentcounsellorinpreparingandsubmittinghisorhercandidature.TheagencythatsendsayoungpersontoanotherEuropeancountrywouldberesponsibleforkeepingintouchwiththatyoungperson,inparticularviaaninterviewconductedatleastonceayear.

24MoreinformationontheEuropeanPortalforProfessionalMobility:https://ec.europa.eu/eures/public/de/homepage

Page 30: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

30|P a g e

o Coverageofmobilitycosts(twotripshomeperyearandanaccommodationgrant)andthecostoflanguagetraining.ThisEuropeanassistancewouldbeinadditiontowhateverremunerationtheyoungworkerswouldreceivefromtheirhostcompany.

o Supportinthehostcountry,startingwithpreparationforthetrainingstintandcontinuingthroughouttheyoungperson’sstayinthecountry.

• TheProjectLeaderentities

TheErasmusProprogrammustrelyonanetworkof“projectleaderentities”inthehostcountries.TheseentitiesmustofferyoungEuropeans

o aseriesofapprenticeshippostso supporttotheyoungpersonwhomtheyselect(helpingwithredtape,language

courses,socialandculturalintegration,disbursingtheEuropeanassistance)

Theseprojectleaderentitiescanbe:

o thebusinessesthemselves,whentheyareinapositiontotakeinagroupofatleast10apprenticesandtoprovidethemwiththerequiredlevelofsupport,oralternatively

o thetrainingcenters.Thelatterwouldplayaparticularlyimportantroleforsmallandmediumbusinessesunabletodirectlyorganizemobilityfortheyoungpeoplethattheywishtotakeonboard.

Lastly,inordertoencouragebusinessestocommittothiscross-borderqualificationscheme,theErasmusProprogrammustcontributetothewagespaidtoEuropeanapprentices.

Butaboveandbeyondthisfinancialincentive,businessesmustbeencouragedtoshouldertheirshareofresponsibilityintrainingyoungEuropeanworkers.ItisintheirowninteresttohaveaEuropeanlaborforcewhoseskillsandknowledgemeettheirrequirements.

• Abudgetofapproximately€5billionayearforyoungEuropeanapprenticeso FinancingNeeds

TheimplementationofthisschemewouldcosttheEUapproximately€800amonthperyoungpeople,includingboththeassistanceofferedtoyoungpeopleandthefinancialincentiveforbusinesses.

Anaveragecostof€20,000to€30,000peryoungperson,varyingaccordingtothelengthoftheapprenticeship).Thiseffort,wortharound€5billionayear,isafiguretowhichtheEUanditsmemberstatescanstretch.

TheEUwouldonlyneedinthefirstyeartomobilize€2billion,whichiswhatthe200,000youngEuropeanapprentices’mobilitywouldcostintheirfirstyear.

o FundingSources

Theresourcesseemtobethere.Thenewschemecouldbelinkedtothe“YouthGuarantee”scheme:anapprenticeshipabroadshouldbeoneoftheoptionsofferedtounemployedandunskilledyoungpeople.Thuswemightenvisagemobilizingpartofthe

Page 31: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

31|P a g e

€6.4billioninthe“YouthEmploymentInitiative”inordertolaunchthisnewmobilityscheme.Ifthepoliticalwillisthere,fundingisnotgoingtostandinthewayofthisinitiative’sadoption.

Andinanycase,thecostofactingmustbeoffsetagainstthecostoffailingtoact:arecentstudyhasrevealedthattheannualcostofyoungpeopleintheEUwhoarenotineducation,employmentortrainingtoppedthe€150billionmarkin2011.Andinadditiontothat,thereisthemedium-tolong-termcostofunemploymentbothtotheeconomy–unemploymentfuelsadeteriorationinhumancapital,whichinturnhasanegativeimpactonproductivityandonthepotentialforgrowth–andtosociety.

• GuaranteeingcircularmobilityforyoungapprenticeswithintheEUandfacilitatingtheirreturntotheirnativecountries

EveryEuropeanregionshouldbebotharegionoforiginandahostregionforyoungEuropeanapprentices,asisthecasewithstudentmobilityinthehighereducationsphere.

YetgiventhecurrentdifferencesinyouthunemploymentlevelsinthevariousregionsoftheEU,wemaywitnessacyclicalimbalanceinthemobilityflowacrosstheEUcausedbytemporaryeconomiccircumstances.…youngpeopleincountrieswhereunemploymentisespeciallyhightobemorereceptivetothisinitiative,whilethecountriesinwhichyouthunemploymentislowestarealsothosethatcanmakethebestapprenticeshiptrainingoffers.

Inviewoftheriskofcyclically“asymmetrical”mobility,itisimportanttoofferthreeresponses,allofwhicharedesignedtofacilitateyoungpeople’returntotheirnativecountries:

o theyoungEuropeanapprentice’sfreedom.Attheendnoobligationtoremaininthehostcountry,orindeedtoreturnhome.

o Theapprentice’sregionoforiginmuststayintouchwithitsyoungmobileapprentices.Inadditiontotheroleplayedbynationalemploymentagencies,eachmemberstateshouldcreateanonlinenetworktobringtogetherofallitsyoungpeopleservingapprenticeshipsabroad.Thisdynamicwillincreasethelikelihoodoftheyoungpeoplereturningtotheirregionsoforigin.Eachcountrywillthusbenefitfromthereturnhomeofits“Erasmuspro”youngpeoplewithaprofessionalqualification,fluencyinaforeignlanguageandaEuropeanculturaloutlook.

o TheEUalsohasanimportantroletoplayinguaranteeingthiscircularmobilityontheyoungpeople’part.ThefundingoftwoannualtripshomemustbeguaranteedinthecontextoftheErasmusProprogram,buttheEU’sprimarycontributioninthisfieldwillbetheactionittakestocutthroughtheadministrativeandlegalobstaclesstandinginthewayofworkermobility.

BOX1HowWouldErasmusProWorkinPractice?

ASwedishtelecommunicationscompanyofferstotrain50Europeanapprenticesinjobsinthetelecomfield.Inthatcapacityitbecomesa«projectleaderentity».ItsofferisdisseminatedthroughEurope,inparticularvianationalemploymentagenciesandthesocialmedia.OneoftheyoungpeoplecontactedinBarcelonaisinterestedintheproposal;anotherhaslearntabouttheErasmusProprogramonFacebook,oneofthescheme’spartners.TheybothendupbeingtakenonboardbytheSwedish

Page 32: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

32|P a g e

company,aspartofagroupofyoungpeoplefromseveraldifferentEuropeancountries.TrainingbeginswithapracticalgroundingintheSwedishlanguageandinthecountry’scultureinatwelve-weekcoursedesignedtobeasmuchfunaspossible.TheEuropeanyoungpeoplethenbegintheirprofessionalapprenticeshipalongsidetheirSwedishcolleagues.Alloftheirtrainingcostsarebornebythecompany,whichalsopaystheyoungpeopleanequivalentmonthlywagetothatwhichaSwedishapprenticewouldearn,anditcoverspartoftheirmobilitycosts(travelandaccommodation).Thecompanyisresponsibleforthetraining’ssuccessandreceivesapproximately€10,000peryearperapprenticefromtheErasmusProbudgettooffsetitsexpenses.Inadministrativeterms,thesefundsreachthecompanyviatheSwedishemploymentagency.

Attheendoftheirapprenticeship,severalyoungpeoplechoosetotakeupajobofferinthecompanythathashostedthem,whileoneofthetwoyoungpeoplefromBarcelonachoosestoreturnatoncetohisnativeregionwhere,thankstothelocalpublicemploymentagency,heisrecruitedbyaSpanishtelecommunicationscompanyonthestrengthofhisqualification.Theotheryoungperson,whohaselectedtoremaininSweden,makesregulartripshomeandkeepsintouchwithhisnationalemploymentagency.Heplanstotakeupawell-paidjobinSpainafteranotherfewyearsdevelopinghisprofessionalexperienceinSweden.

7.2.3.2 Policy Options – Long-Term Accounts and Start Capital and/or Bonus for education

• EncouragetheestablishmentofLong-termAccountsforeveryworkingperson,thatgiveworkerssomeflexibilitytoundertaketraining,sabbaticals,orcareerchanges.(seechapteronflexibility).

• OfferaStartCapitalorSocialInheritancetoeveryyoungperson,asafirstdepositinthelong-termaccount,thats/hecanusefortraining,startingupabusiness,oratransitiontopart-timeforfamilyorpersonalreasons;

• BoosttheLong-termAccountwithperiodicalBonusfortraining(likeavalueof€6’000every5years),that

o shouldbegivenbycompaniesandfundedbyequivalentlowertaxesonlabor,or,incaseofunemployment,directlybythestate;

o shouldbespentatthechoiceoftheindividual,inarangeofcoursesorotherlearningopportunitiesendorsedbythecompanyorthestate.

7.2.3.3 Policy Options - Free Up Time for Job Training for working people

FreeUpTimeforJobTrainingforworkingpeople.Governmentneedtosetupregulationthatenablescurrentlyemployedpersonstofreeuptimeforhoningtheirskillsorpreparingforacareerchange.E.g.Austriaofferstocurrentlyemployedpersonsupto12monthsofpaidtimewithina4-yeartimeframetopursueaformaltrainingorstudies.Typicalapplicationsarelanguagetraining,finishingschooldegrees,orstudies.ThearrangementsareagreedbetweenemployerandemployeeandfinanciallysupportedbytheGovernmentwithapaymentequivalenttotheunemploymentinsurance.25

7.2.4 Proposed Position for VOX Europe 25MoreinformationontheAustriaBildungsteilzeit:http://www.bildungskarenz.at/

Page 33: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

33|P a g e

VOXEuropepromotesmeasureswhichresultinhighemploymentandcontinuedemployabilityforEuropeancitizens,amidstprofoundstructuralchangesintheeconomyandsociety.Withthisintention,VOXsupportsabroadstrategytomove‘FromanUnemploymenttoanEmploymentInsurance’withare-orientationtowardsapreventiveschemefocusedonmaintainingemployability.

VOXEuropeadvocatestheimmediateadoptionof‘ErasmusPro’,aprogramtoincreaseopportunitiesforyoungpeopletoenterthelabormarketcombinedwitha‘EuropeanExperience’.Duringafirstphase,adedicatedbudgetofroughly€5 billion,wouldfundayoungEuropeanapprenticeschemethatisabletoprovide200,000two-yearlongapprenticeshipsayear26.SuchinitiativeisverysignificanttobuildappreciationfortheEuropeanideaamongayoungpopulationthatisnotreachedbytheacademicallyorientedErasmusprogram.

VOXEuropesupportsIndividualLong-TermAccountsthatsupportlife-longeducation,boostedbyaStartCapitalforeveryyoungpersonandperiodicBonusforlive-longlearningandre-trainingtoprovidefinancialsupportandtimetoabroadergroupofworkers,includingfromsmallandmediumenterprises,tomaintaintheiremployability.TheBonuswouldcomethroughthecompanyandbefundedbyequivalentlowertaxesonlabor,or,incaseofunemployment,directlybythestate.Thebonuscouldbespentonawiderangeoflearningopportunitiesatthechoiceoftheindividual,includingcourses,practica,hands-ontrainings,whichenhanceemployabilityandareendorsedbythecompanyorthestate.Aceilingforthebonuswouldneedtobesetcountrybycountry(e.g.€6’000every5years).

Morebroadly,VOXEuropesupportsmeasurestomaketheEuropeanlabormarketmoretransparent,includingsettingupanEU–wideeffectiveLaborMarketInformationService.Whilelabormobilityislegallyenshrined,italsotakesdetailedinformationaboutskillneedsandjobopportunitiesinparticularregions,toenableworkerstobenefitfromanintegratedlabormarketacrossnationalandlanguagebarriers.

7.3 Social Protection: Minimum Guaranteed Income (MGI) and Universal Basic Income (UBI)

7.3.1 Definitions

SocialProtectionreferstoasystemofinsurancesandregulations,coveringriskssuchasunemployment,sickness,disability,aswellasprovideincomeforoldage.

Guaranteedminimumincome(GMI),alsocalledminimumincome,isasystemofsocialwelfareprovisionthatguaranteesthatallcitizensorfamilieshaveanincomesufficienttoliveon,providedtheymeetcertainconditions.Eligibilityistypicallydeterminedbycitizenship,ameanstest,andeitheravailabilityforthelabourmarketorawillingnesstoperformcommunityservices.Theprimarygoalofaguaranteedminimumincomeistoreducepoverty.Itisdeeplyrelatedtotheobjectiveofre-integratingunemployedintheworldofwork.

Basicincome(UBI).Theterm“basicincome”–oroften“unconditionalbasicincome”or“UBI”–isasocial-policyapproachunderwhichallcitizens,withoutdistinction,withoutmeans-testingand

26Cf.Delorsetal.,2015

Page 34: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

34|P a g e

withoutbeingrequiredtodoanythinginreturn,receiveasetamountasapublictransferbenefitonaregularbasis.

Thereareawiderangeofproposalsatnationalandinternationallevelregardingthespecificsofhowsuchasystemcouldwork.

7.3.2 Issues, Trade Offs, Tensions

7.3.2.1 Diverging Views on The Future of Social Protection and the Welfare State

Digitalizationandglobalizationraisecomplexquestionswithregardtothefutureofsocialprotection,ormoregenerally,thewelfarestate.

Oneviewisthatdigitalizationwillresultinmassivejoblosses.Othersarguethatthereisnoevidenceofthis,atleastinGermanytodate.Nonetheless,thereisfearthatanarmyof“digitallaborers”(DigitaleTaglöhner)mightgiverisetoincreasedsocialinequality.Digitalization,itisfeared,couldexacerbateexistingdivisionsinsocieties,includinggrowinginequalityinthedistributionofwealth,incomedivergence,thelossofjobswithcompulsorysocialinsurancecoverage,theriseinprecariousemployment,thespreadofpovertyrisksandtheinadequatesocialprotectionofferedbythewelfarestateforsomegroups.Anewdividecouldalsoemergeifonlyelitesweretobenefitfromtheadvantagesofdigitalization,suchasgreaterpersonalfreedomintheorganizationoftheirwork,whileothersnot.

Therearequitedivergingviews,whatconsequenceshouldbedrawnwithregardtothefutureofthewelfarestate,whichcouldbecategorizedasfollowing:

• Morewelfarestatewithbroadercoverage.o Quote:“…Forsocialinsuranceforemployees[should]beexpandedtocreatea

comprehensivesocialinsuranceschemecoveringallpersonsinwork.Wereiteratethiscall,asitistakingonanewurgencywhenitcomestoprovidingadequatesocialprotectionforthenewformsofworkandemploymentwhicharepotentiallyincreasingasaresultofdigitalization.Theentirelaborforcemustbeincludedinthe

BasicIncome(UBI)

MinimumIncome(GMI)

Conditionstogetit:Citizenship YES YESMeanstest YESAvailabilityforlabormarket YESWillingnesstoperformcommunityservices YESCommittementtoareintagrationtrajectory YESNotindividuallydefined(ex.Familyincomeisconsidered) YES

Page 35: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

35|P a g e

socialinsurancesystem.Employersandclients(aswellas“intermediaries”)mustbearanequalshareofthecosts.”27

o Thedemandonthewelfarestateistoprovidecomprehensiveprotectionfromtheuncertaintiesofdigitalization,includingtheerosionoftraditionalworker–employerrelationshipsanddeclininginfluenceoflaborunions.EmphasisisonStateorganizedsolidarity.

• Less(notmore)welfarestate–coverageisalreadyadequate,reachingeveryone.o Quote:“Thereisalreadyanadequatelevelofsocialsecurityinthiscountryforevery

individual.Thereisnoneedforafurtherexpansion.Thatwouldonlyresultinamorebloatedwelfarestate”28

o Thedemandonthewelfarestateistolimititselftosafeguardminimumstandards.Emphasisisonentrepreneurialandindividualfreedomandself-responsibility.

• WelfareStateasaSocialPartnershipo Quote:“Toensurethatdigitalization’sopportunitiesbenefitthewholeofGerman

industryanditsworkers,aswellasjobsinGermany,weneedaviablesocialpartnershipandapoliticalframeworkwhichfostersinnovation,avoidsbureaucraticregulationsandboostsentrepreneurialfreedom.”29

o Thedemandonthewelfarestateistoprovideanenablingenvironmentwhichfostersbalancedsolutionsbetweensocialpartners.Emphasisisoncreativityof

o decentralizedsolutions.Despitedivergingviewsonthefutureroleofthewelfarestateandonthescopeofsocialprotection,thereisbroadagreementonthreecrucialchallengesthatthewelfarestateswithintheEUwillhavetotackle:

• Securingthelong-termfinancingofthewelfarestate.• Providingabasicincometoenableworkersforthelengthoftheirworkinglifetoremain

employableandsupportingthemduringmorefrequenttransitionsduetostructuralchangesorshiftingprioritiesindifferentlifephases.

• IntegratingandharmonizingsocialprotectionacrosstheEuropeanUnion.

7.3.3 Policy Options –Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Inthisdebateaboutthefutureofthewelfarestate,theideaofanUnconditionalBasicIncome(UBI)playsanimportantandcontroversialrole.Theideahasalongtraditionineconomicthinking(asearlyasThomasMorusinhis‘Utopia’,whothoughtofitasapolicytorenderstealingobsolete)andhasrecentlybeenrevived,aspossibleresponse,i.e.tothefearedlossofjobsduetoautomatization.

TheadvocatesinfavorofUBIofferthefollowingarguments:

• SimplifyWelfarePayments.TheCatoInstitute,anAmericanthink-tankwhichspendsmuchofitstimecallingforasmallerstate,publishedasympatheticanalysisofUBIpoliciesin2015.

27QuotebyVer.di(GermanUnitedServicesTradeUnion),Weissbuch,p.17828QuotebyVBW(BavarianIndustryAssociation),ibid.29QuotebyDaimlerAG,ibid.

Page 36: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

36|P a g e

Itfeelsthat,thoughitmightpreferaworldwithnogovernmentredistribution,abasicincomeisthesimplest,leastintrusiveandleastcondescendingwaytoprovideredistributionifredistributiontheremustbe.Furthermore,sincethebenefitwouldnotphaseout,andbepaidirrespectiveofotherincome,therewouldbestillbeahealthyincentivetoseekadditionalworkhoursorincome(andavoidperverseincentivese.g.ofunemploymentschemes,deterringpeoplefromseekingwork).

• AssureaLivinginaWorldofRobotsandFewPaidJobs.Someofthepeoplebehindtoday’stechnologicalchangeseeuniversalbasicincomeinsimilarterms—awayofassuringalivingforallinaworldofrobotsandartificialintelligence.Totheextentthatsuchdisruptionispartoftheirbusinessmodel,thisbeneficenceisalsoawaytoneutralizecomplaintsaboutthehavoctheirinnovationsmaywreak.30

• EmpowerWorkerstoallocatetheirtimemorefreelyandtotakerisksleadingtoinnovations.Workerswouldfinditeasiertochosebetweenpaidwork,training,andunpaidwork,ortotakeriskofstartingabusiness.Inafastchangingjobmarket,workerscouldtakemoretimetotrainandexploredifferentcareers.Societywouldlikelybenefitfromaboostininnovation,morequalifiedworkers,reducedunemploymentpayments,aswellasanincreasedvolumeofvolunteerism.

• StrengthenSocialJusticebyrewardingsofarunpaidlabor.Womendothelion’sshareoftheworld’sunpaidlabor.Inmostoftheworld,theyworkmorehoursadaythanmendo,butcommandalowershareoffinancialresources,largelybecausetheytakeonmoreunpaidchildcareandresponsibilitiesforthefamilyhome.Auniversalbasicincomewouldshiftpurchasingpowertowardpeoplewhodoworkwhich,thoughvaluabletosociety,isnotrewardedfinancially.Anditwouldclearlybenefitpeoplewithnoprospectofremuneratedwork,andthusmostofthoseinextremepoverty.

ThecriticsofUBIargueasfollows:

• UBIistooCostly.Evenforrichcountries,toprovideauniversalbasicincomeofsay€10,000/yeartocoverbasicneedsisafiscalchallenge.ThetablebelowindicatesthatonlyDenmarkcoulddoso,withoutraisingtaxes.InGermany,thiswouldbemorelikelyaround€8,000andintheUSonlyabout€6,000.Thiscalculationisbasedonthetotalamountoftaxrevenueswhichcouldbeallocatedtothebasicincome,afterallowingforhealthcareandfewotheressentialpublicexpenditures.Thefurtherargumentis,thatdrasticincreasesintaxeswouldhavenegativeimpactoneconomicgrowth,andworsenthepovertysituation.31

30Cf.TheEconomist,2016b31Ibid.

Page 37: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

37|P a g e

• UBIsendswrongincentives.Concernsareraisedthattheunconditionalpaymentswilldeterbeneficiariesfromseekingwork,provokingresentmentsamongtheworkingpopulation,havingtofinance‘parasites’.

• UBIfosters2-classsocieties.Concernsarealsoraised,thatUBIwouldfosterapolarizationofsocietyinalowincomeclasssurvivingonUBIwhileanelitehaswellpaidjobs.

• MigrationtoRicherCountriesmightbeSuppressed.Abasicincomewouldmakeitalmostimpossibleforcountriestohaveopenborders.Therighttoanincomewouldencouragerich-worldgovernmentseithertoshutthedoorstoimmigrants,ortocreatesecond-classcitizenrieswithoutaccesstostatesupport.32

• TheProblemofa‘nowork’society,whichUBIshouldhelpfix,hasnotyetmaterialized,andinthemeantime,alternativepoliciesexist,toachievesameresultsatlowercost.Existingpolicies,suchaswagesupplementsandEarnedIncomeTax,aswellasminimumwagescan

32Ibid.

Page 38: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

38|P a g e

beeffectiveinhelpingpeoplestayoutofpoverty,andreinforceincentivestostayengagedinpaidwork.

BasicIncome(UBI)affordability.NosurprisethatoneofthemainconcernaboutaUniversalBasicincomeisitscost.Estimatingthefullcostrequiresverycomplexsimulations,involvingmanyvariables.Itisalsodifficulttoproperlyestimatealldirectandindirectconsequences,sincethereareonlyfewlimitedexperimentsofhowtheeconomicdynamicmaychangeonceUBIbeintroduced.

AccordingtoonerecentstudyonAlternativeUniversalBasicIncomeSchemesintheUK33:“ItisimpossibletodesignaUBIschemewhichisfiscallyfeasible,hasnoadversedistributionalconsequences,andissufficientlygeneroustoeliminatetheneedformeans-testing”

TheEconomist34ranasimplisticsimulationonhowmuchbasicincomeagovernmentcouldpayoutifitisscrappeditsnon-healthtransferpayments,andspreadthemevenlyacrossthepopulationinasinglepayment.Evidently,thissimulationdoesnottakeintoaccountsecondaryeffectsfromeconomicgrowth,andthedifferentformsoffinancingthebasicincome.

FinlandcomesoutneartothetopwithabasicincomeofUSD$10,500peryear,andindeedtheFinnishgovernmentisoneofthefewpilotingtheidea.TheEUaverageamountthatwouldbeavailableforbasicincomearound$7,500,downtoapprox.$5,000(Britain,Iceland,Greece,Portugal).

33Cf.Martinelli,201734Cf.TheEconomist,2016a

Page 39: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

39|P a g e

Page 40: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

40|P a g e

TherearefewpracticalpilotsofUBIwithintheEU:

Thereareonlyveryfewpracticallargescaleandlong-termexperiments,inonly14countries,andofthoseinonly2caseswithasamplelargerthan2000participants(Canada1974to79,andIndia2011to13).35

OnepracticalpilotwhichiscurrentlybeingundertakeninFinland.FinlandiscurrentlytestingUBIwithagroupof2000unemployed,whoreceiveEuro560amonthbetween2017and2019,unconditionally,withnostringsattached.Thereactionsarequitevaried:

• Supportforthepilotcomesfrom,i.a.parttimeworkers,andunpaidwork(women,home,childcare)

• LaborUnionsdislikethepilotforfearthatstrategicimportanceofpaidworkwilldecline,andsotheirpoweraslaborunions.

• Thosemanagingunemploymentfunds(eg.laborunions)fearlossofcontroloffunds,ifdissolvedandreplacedbyUBI.

• BasicIncomeEarthNetwork,whichhaspromotedtheideaofbasicincomessincethe1980s,saysatwo-yearstudyistooshorttolearnhowthepsychologyofbeneficiarieschanges.36

SwitzerlandheldareferendumonUBIonJune5th,2016,inwhichtheSwissoverwhelminglyvotedtorejectaninitiativethatwouldhaveamendedtheconstitutionandrequiredthegovernmenttotakestepstowardsimplementingauniversalbasicincome—anunconditionalcashpaymentgiventoallcitizens.SupportershadfavoredanincomeofSFr2,500($2,500)permonth.

PopularsupportforUBIisGrowing

UBIisgainingpopularsupportwithintheEU–thisatleastisthefindingofa11,000citizensurveyin2016and2017.

Thekeyfindingsarethat(seeAnnex3forafullerdescriptionofthesurveyresults)37:

• 68%wouldsupportaUBI,ifareferendumwouldbeheldtoday,upfrom64%in2016• AmongsixlargeEUeconomies,Italyshowedstrongestsupport(above70%)andFrancethe

lowest(around60%),withUK,Spain,Germany,Polandinbetween.• Thethreemost‘convincing’pro-UBIargumentswere:“Itreducesanxietyaboutfinancing

basicneeds”(52%),“Itcreatesmoreequalityofopportunity”(42%),and“Itencouragesfinancialindependenceandself-responsibility”(32%).

• ThethreemostconvincingargumentsagainstUBIwere:“Foreignersmightcometomycountryandtakeadvantageofthebenefit”(39%,versus34%in2016),“Onlythepeoplewhoneeditmostshouldgetsomethingfromthestate”(34%),and“Itisimpossibletofinance”(34%).

35SeealsotheTEDxTalkonthesubjectdeliveredbyFedericoPistono:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2aBKnr3Ep436Cf.TheEconomist,201737Cf.BIEN,2017

Page 41: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

41|P a g e

Page 42: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

42|P a g e

7.3.4 Policy Options - Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI)

MinimumIncomeschemesacrossEuropeplayavitalroleinalleviatingtheworstimpactsofpovertyandsocialexclusioninmanycountries.However,inmanycountriestheircontributionisstillmuchtoolimitedandprogresssince2009hasbeendisappointing.Oftenthelackofadequatepaymentscoupledwithlimitedcoverageandpoortake-up,dueinteraliatopooradministration,inadequateaccesstoinformation,excessivebureaucracyandstigmatizationmeansthattheyfallveryfarshortofensuringadecentlifeforthemostvulnerableinsociety.

TheadequacyandeffectivenessofGMIschemesareoneofthefundamentalbuildingblocksofensuringatrulySocialEuropeandtheyareakeyinvestmentinbuildingastrongersocietyandeconomy.

TheobjectiveoftheEuropeanCommissiontoensurea“triple-A”socialratingforEurope21couldbenefitfromstrengtheningtheadequacyandeffectivenessofGMIschemeswithinanoverallactiveinclusionapproach.38

7.3.4.1 Cases in Europe AGMIschemeexistinFrancesince1988anditisactuallynamed“Revenuedesolidaritèactive(RSA)”.Itisanincomeconditionedtotheactiveresearchofanewjobandisnotattributedindividually,buttakingintoaccountmanyfactors,likethefamilystatus,theexistingincome,etc.

Amountsthereforemayvary,butthemonthlyamountisapprox.€500forasinglecitizenandresident,upto€1080foracouplewith2children.

InItaly,inSeptember2017theso-called“RedditodiIncusione”wasintroducedbytheGovernment.Itisaguaranteedincomeofmax€485permonth,conditionedtotheadhesiontoaprojectforsocialandworkinclusion.

ThisGMIschemecoversnowadays400thousandfamilies(or1,5Mnpeople).InItalythereare4,5Mnpeoplein„absolutepoverty“.39

ItisnotablethatinItalytheverypopularproposalofthe5-StarMovementisnotaBasicIncomebutaGMI.Aminimumamountof€780wouldbegrantedonlyonaconditionalbasis,andwouldintegrateexistingincomes.

38Cf.Frazer&Marlier,201639Lessthan40%oftheequivalentnationalmedianincome

Page 43: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

43|P a g e

7.3.4.2 Affordability at EU level

OneofthemostcomprehensiveanalysisofthevariousschemescurrentlyinplaceinEurope,andtheamountrequiredtoincreasetheaveragenationalGMIamountstovariouspovertythresholdisthestudy‘TowardsaEuropeanminimumincome’byRamónPeña-CasasandDalilaGhailani.40

Methodology.ItlooksatthefeasibilityofintroducingaEuropeaninstrumentrelatingtonon-contributoryminimumincomeschemesaimedatpeopleofworkingagewhoarefitforwork.Itthusdoesnotcoverminimumincomesforspecificcategories(theelderly,etc.)orminimumwages,whichareorganizedandmanagedbythesocialpartners,althoughtheymayberelevanttodiscussionsofcertainelementsofGMIscheme.Itanalysesdifferentscenarios,includingthoseconcerning:

• the40%povertythreshold,insofarasthisthresholdrepresentstheminimumtobeattainedtoeliminateextremepoverty;

• The60%thresholdwithatake-uprateof50%,whichprovidesanideaofwhatwouldneedtobedonetoGMIstoenablepeopletoleadadecentlifeaccordingtothestandardsofrelativepoverty.

Thresholdsof40,50and60%arerelatedtotheequivalentnationalmedianincome.Foreachofthesescenarios,ithasbeencalculatedthefollowing

• theamountrequiredtoincreasetheaveragenationalGMIamountstothepovertythreshold,

• thecurrentcostand• thetotalcostinvolvedinadjustingtheGMI,togetherwiththespendingoncurrent

recipients.• theproportions(asa%)oftheamountneededtobridgethegapandthetotaloutlay

comparedwitho thetotalgrossdisposablehouseholdincome,providesanideaoftheeffort

requiredintermsofnationalredistributionofhouseholdwealth,primarilyviathetaxsystem.

o thegrossdomesticproduct,makesitpossibletoassesswhatneedstobedoneintermsofredistributingthewealthofalltheeconomicoperatorsandtransactions.

Findings:differencesbetweenMemberStates,solidarity.ThereareconsiderabledifferencesbetweenMemberStatesintermsoftheaverageGMIlevelsandpovertythresholdsareclear.

AnanalysisofthedifferenceshighlightstheparticularcaseofDenmark,wheretheaverageGMIisalreadyabovethevariouspovertythresholds.

Thisisalsothecaseforsomecountriesasregardsthegapbetweenthe40%threshold(BE,IE,LU,LTandNL).ForsomecountriesthereisasubstantialgapbetweentheaverageGMIandthelowestpovertythresholdof40%,rangingfrom52%to66%(SK,BG,POandRO),whereasinothercountriestheGMIwouldneedtobeincreasedbybetween28%and45%(HU,EE,LV,PT,SE,CZandCY).Thereareonlyafewcountriesthatneedtomakeasmallincrease(lessthan10%)intheGMItoreachtheminimalpovertythreshold(AT,SI,UKFI).

40Cf.Peña-Casas&Ghailani,2013

Page 44: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

44|P a g e

AsregardsthegapbetweentheGMIandthe60%threshold,alltheEUcountrieswouldhavetoincreasetheleveloftheGMI.Thefiguresrangefrom21%inIrelandto78%intheSlovakRepublic.

ItisthusclearthatthefinancialeffortrequiredvariesconsiderablyfromoneMemberStatetoanotherandthepovertythresholdconsidered,whichclearlyunderlinestheneedforsolidaritybetweenthecountries.

Inparticular,resourcesneededtoanincreasetowardsthe40%povertythreshold:

• TableA11intheappendixshowsscenarioA1(40%povertythresholdand50%take-uprate).• ApproximatelyEUR17.2billionwouldneedtobecommittedatEuropeanlevel(EU-25)totop

upthecurrentGMIssothattheywouldatleastreachtheextremepovertythreshold.• Thisamountseemsrelativelymodestcomparedwithtotalhouseholdwealth(0.31%)orthe

wealthofEuropeancountriesasawhole(0.19%ofGDP).• Thetotalcost(currentamount+increase)wouldbeequalto0.85%ofEuropeanhousehold

incomeand0.49%oftheMemberStates'totalwealth.

Inparticular,resourcesneededtoanincreasetowardsthe60%povertythreshold

• ThedatarelatingtoscenarioC1(60%povertythresholdand50%take-uprate)aresetoutintableA13.

• Contemplatingagoalsetatthe60%povertythresholdsignificantlyincreasesthefundingrequired.

• ThistakesthefigureupfromEUR17.2billiontonearly56billiontofundtheGMIincrease,whichisequivalentto0.9%ofEuropeanhouseholdincomeand0.56%ofEuropeanGDP.

• ThetotalcostoftheGMIsystemswouldincreasefromEUR48billionto86.7billion,whichwouldbeequaltoaEuropeanaverageof1.45%ofEuropeandisposablehouseholdincomeand0.85%ofthecountries'globalwealth.Again,whilsttheseamountsmightappearrelativelymodestcomparedwithEuropeans'totalwealth,thefinancialeffortrequiredfallsunequallyonEuropeanhouseholdsandcountries.

• Inseveralcountries(CY,EE,FR,NL,PL,SK)asumofbetween2to3.3%ofhouseholdincomeswouldneedtoberaised.WhilstinvestmentinGMIsystemswouldamounttolessthan1%ofGDPinthemajorityofEuropeancountries,inothers(CY,EE,FR,NL,PL,SK)between1.5to2%ofGDPwouldneedtobeinvested.

• ThisoncemoreunderlinestheneedforEuropeansolidarityonthisissuetoensurethattheGMIschemesplaytheirfullpartincombatingpovertyinEurope.

Inconclusion,lookingattheamountsthatwouldbeneededtoreachthe40%level,thisgoalseemsachievable:

• OnthequestionofwhetherGMIsareadequate,theminimumscenario(A1)wouldatleasthelptheMemberStatestoraisetheamountofexistingGMIsuptothe40%povertythreshold,whichequateswithsituationsofextremepoverty.• EUR17.2billion,or0.19%oftheEuropeanGDPwouldneedtoberaisedannuallyto

achievethisminimumobjective.

Page 45: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

45|P a g e

• ThecurrenteffortmadebyMemberStatesintermsoftake-upwouldremainunchanged.

Lookingattheamountsthatwouldbeneededtoreachthe60%level,thefinancialeffortrequireddiffersindegreedependingonthecountryanditseemsdifficulttoimaginehowsomeofthemmightmakethiseffortontheirown.

• IncreasingtheleveloftheGMItothe60%threshold,evenwithanunchangedtake-uprate,wouldcallforaconsiderablygreaterfinancialeffort.

• ClosetoEUR56billionwouldneedtobemobilizedeachyeartoachievethisgoalandthatisdifficulttoenvisage.

• ItisalsonecessarytobearinmindthatsimplyraisingtheamountsoftheGMIschemestothe60%povertythresholdlevelwouldinsomewaybetantamounttoplacingtheentireburdenoferadicatingpovertyontheGMIschemeswhichisnotprimarilywhattheyareintendedtodo.Infact,theyconstitutearesiduaryelementofthewholesocialprotectionsysteminalloftheEUcountries,regardlessofthe"welfaremodels"towhichtheybelong.

Putmoreprosaically,inadditiontotheseprinciplesofsolidarityandsocialjustice,whichareverydifficulttoupholdinaperiodofeconomiccrisisandbudgetaryausteritythatEuropehasbeengoingthroughthesepastfewyears,socialsolidaritycanalsobeseenfromtheviewpointofeconomiclogic.

Conceptssuchas"activesocialinvestment"or"socialshockabsorbers",intendedtoshowthatsocialprotectionandthesolidaritythisinvolvescanalsoplayapositiveroleintheeconomicdevelopmentofEuropeanditsMemberstates,havethusblossomedatEuropeanlevel.Activesocialinvestmentisthusclearlypartofaneconomicapproach(returnoninvestment)forboostingindividuals'capacitiesforplayingafullpartinemploymentandeconomiclifeandcompetitiveness.

Howshoulditbefunded?Ahalf-waysolutionwouldbeafundfinancedattheEuropeanlevelandbyMemberStates,whereeachwouldcontributeinlinewithitsnationalwealth.

Conclusion

Inconclusion,„theadequacyandeffectivenessofMIschemesareoneofthefundamentalbuildingblocksofensuringatrulySocialEuropeandtheyareakeyinvestmentinbuildingastrongersocietyandeconomy.

TheobjectiveoftheEuropeanCommissiontoensurea“triple-A”socialratingforEurope21couldbenefitfromstrengtheningtheadequacyandeffectivenessofMIschemeswithinanoverallactiveinclusionapproach.41

41Cf.Frazer&Marlier,2016

Page 46: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

46|P a g e

„…Aswehaveemphasisedseveraltimesinthisreport,theintroductionofaEuropeaninstrumentisnotsomuchaquestionofmoney,especiallyifamodestgoalofconvergingonaminimumthresholdof40%isset,asaquestionofpoliticalwillatnationalEuropeanlevels.“42

7.3.5 Proposed VOX Position

7.3.5.1 On Unconditional Basic Income (UBI) Itisanideawith1)broadintellectualbuy-inacrosstheconservativetoprogressivespectrum,2)withanequallyforcefulgroupofcritics,and3)withgrowingpopularity,includingwithinEUcountries.

Itwouldbetemptingtojumponthe‘band-waggon’ofbasicincome,torideaprogressivemessageofsocialjustice.ButitistooearlytohitchtheVOXEuropewagonbehindanideawhichhasnotyetmaturedandaboutwhichwedoknowtoolittle:

• Veryfewpracticallargescaleandlong-termexperiments–i.e.weknowtoolittle.• Toofewdataonimpactonpublicfinance,socialbenefits,labormarkets,andindividualnet

benefits.• Politicallynotyetbroadlyaccepted,withe.g.Swisshavingrejectedareferendumin2016,

thatwouldhaveenabledabasicincomeofSFR2,500(€2,175).

Itwouldbeequallywrongtorejecttheideaatthisstage,basedobjectionswhicharevalidintheshortterm(e.g.thehighfiscalcost),butmaybecomelessrelevantinthemediumandlongterm,whilethebenefitsmaybecomebetterdocumentedandmorerelevant,aspaidworkbecomesscarcewithautomatizationofproduction.

HenceVOXEuropeshouldpositionitselfwithanopenattitudepromotingapolicylearningapproacharoundthetwoprincipalaspectsofbasicincome:FreeMoneyforEveryone,i.e.unconditionalanduniversalincome.

VOXshouldactivelysupportwelldesignedexperimentsrunbylocalornationalinstitutionswithunconditionalbasicincometogainabetterunderstandingofUBIasapolicyinstrument.

• Experimentsneedtobesufficientlylarge(e.gwithatleast10,000participants),shouldhaveacontrolgrouptoarriveatmeaningfulresults,andshouldlastsufficientlylong(5yearsto10years)tocapturebehaviouralchangeswhichwouldnotoccurinshortprograms(eg.Ifparticipantknowsthatprogramendsafter2years).Theincomeshouldbetrueunconditionalincomeandadequatetomeetbasicneeds(e.g.abouthalfthemedianincome).

• Professionalscientificfeasibilitystudiesandimpactstudiesneedtoaccompanytheexperiments,toderivesolidresultstoinformfuturepolicymaking.

7.3.5.2 On Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI)

VOXshouldadvocatethebroaderadoptionofMinimumIncome(conditioned)schemesacrossEU,initiallywithatleastamodestgoalofconvergingonaminimumpovertythresholdof40%ofthe

42Cf.Peña-Casas&Ghailani,2013

Page 47: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

47|P a g e

equivalentnationalmedianincome(„extremepoverty“),whichresulttobeeconomicallyandpoliticallybearable,consideringthelimitedsolidarityrequiredbetweenstates.

Theseschemescanplayavitalroleinalleviatingtheworstimpactsofpovertyandsocialexclusioninmanycountries.Inaddition,itcanwellencouragefinancialindependenceandself-responsibility.

Whenpeople(forinstance:young,>50yrs)struggletofindajobinlinewiththeirskills,potentialoraspiration,theyoftenendacceptinganykindofjobormigrating,thuswastingpast(public)investmentsintheireducationandaddingdown-pressureonwages.

Ensuringaminimumincometothesepeoplecangivethemtimetoinvestonpersonalre-training,exploreself-employment,etc.andthuscomplementswelltheproposalslinkedtoLife-longlearning,suchas:

• EstablishaWorkActivityAccountforeveryone,automatically,whenthepersonturns18.Thisaccountaccompaniesapersonthroughoutitsactivelife.

• ProvideaStartCapitalorSocialInheritancetoeveryyoungperson,thats/hecanuseforprofessionalqualification,startingupabusiness,oratransitiontopart-timeforfamilyorpersonalreasons.

Asaguidingprinciple,VOXwantsto„putuniversalsocialprotectionandanadequateincomeatthecentreofEUPolicymaking’.

Page 48: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

48|P a g e

8 Conclusion

Digitalization,globalization,anddemographicchangesaretransformingthenatureofworkandlabormarkets.ThisofferschallengesandopportunitiesforEurope.Inordertomanagewellthetransitiontowardsthe‘FutureofWork’,theEUwillhavetoundertakegreateffortstoalsobecomea‘SocialUnion’.

VOXadvocatesanEUwide“MarshallPlanonWorkandLife-longEmployability”asoneprogramtoputsuchSocialUnionintopractice,withthefollowingcomponents:

• FlexibilityandWork-LifeBalance

VOXsupportsaWorkingTimeChoiceActandbecometherecognizedpoliticalvoiceforthegrowingnumberofself-employed,start-ups,crowdandgigworkers.

• Life-longLearningforEmployability

VOXsupportsastrategytomove‘FromanUnemploymenttoanEmploymentInsurance’withare-orientationtowardsapreventiveschemefocusedonmaintainingemployability.

VOXadvocatestheimmediateadoptionof‘ErasmusPro’,aEuropeanapprenticeschemetofund200,000two-yearlongapprenticeshipsayear.

VOXEuropesupportsIndividualLong-TermAccountsthatsupportlife-longeducation,boostedbyaperiodicBonusforlive-longlearningandre-training.

• SocialProtectionandBasicIncomeVOXenvisionsuniversalsocialprotectionandanadequateincometobecomeacorepillarofEUPolicymaking.Thisrequiresalong-termperspectivecombinedwithshort-termactions.VOXadvocatesthestrengtheningofexistingGuaranteedMinimumIncome(GMI)schemesacrosstheEU,initiallywithatleastamodestgoalofconvergingonaminimumpovertythresholdof40%oftheequivalentnationalmedianincome(„extremepoverty“),withtheschemesconditionednotonlyonatraditionaljobsearch,butalsoonapossibledevelopmentofanewbusinessorevenan(unpaid)socialactivity(likementorship,etc.).VOXendorsestheideaofaStartCapitalforeveryyoungpersonintheEU.SuchstartcapitalcanbeseenasaSocialInheritance,thatenablesayoungpersontodevelopitstalents,choseacareerorstartupabusiness,independentlyofthesocialstatusandwealthoftheparents.VOXsupportslargescaleexperimentswithunconditionalbasicincome(UBI),toprovideasolidknowledgebasistodecideonthemeritsofthisnovelapproachtosocialprotection.

VOXEuropehastheopportunitytoprofileitselfasanadvocateforaEuropeanapproachtoSocialDevelopment,withpracticalminimumstandardsofsocialprotectionandofdecentworkandpay,leadingtowardsasuccessfuldigitaltransformationwhichcontributesbothtogreaterprosperityandbetterworkingconditionswithintheEU.

Foramoreextensivesummary,seethePolicySummaryatthebeginningofthisreport.

Page 49: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

49|P a g e

Page 50: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

50|P a g e

9 Annexes

9.1 Annex 1: European Pillar of Social Rights

EuropeanPillarofSocialRights

ChapterI:Equalopportunitiesandaccesstothelabourmarket

1.Education,trainingandlife-longlearning

Everyonehastherighttoqualityandinclusiveeducation,trainingandlife-long

learninginordertomaintainandacquireskillsthatenablethemtoparticipatefullyin

societyandmanagesuccessfullytransitionsinthelabourmarket.

2.Genderequality

a.Equalityoftreatmentandopportunitiesbetweenwomenandmenmustbeensured

andfosteredinallareas,includingregardingparticipationinthelabourmarket,terms

andconditionsofemploymentandcareerprogression.

b.Womenandmenhavetherighttoequalpayforworkofequalvalue.

3.Equalopportunities

Regardlessofgender,racialorethnicorigin,religionorbelief,disability,ageorsexual

orientation,everyonehastherighttoequaltreatmentandopportunitiesregarding

employment,socialprotection,education,andaccesstogoodsandservicesavailable

tothepublic.Equalopportunitiesofunder-representedgroupsshallbefostered.

4.Activesupporttoemployment

a.Everyonehastherighttotimelyandtailor-madeassistancetoimproveemployment

orself-employmentprospects.Thisincludestherighttoreceivesupportforjobsearch,

trainingandre-qualification.Everyonehastherighttotransfersocialprotectionand

trainingentitlementsduringprofessionaltransitions.

b.Youngpeoplehavetherighttocontinuededucation,apprenticeship,traineeshipora

jobofferofgoodstandingwithin4monthsofbecomingunemployedorleaving

education.

c.Peopleunemployedhavetherighttopersonalised,continuousandconsistent

Page 51: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

51|P a g e

support.Thelong-termunemployedhavetherighttoanin-depthindividual

assessmentatthelatestat18monthsofunemployment.

ChapterII:Fairworkingconditions

5.Secureandadaptableemployment

a.Regardlessofthetypeanddurationoftheemploymentrelationship,workershave

therighttofairandequaltreatmentregardingworkingconditions,accesstosocial

protectionandtraining.Thetransitiontowardsopen-endedformsofemploymentshall

befostered.

b.Inaccordancewithlegislationandcollectiveagreements,thenecessaryflexibility

foremployerstoadaptswiftlytochangesintheeconomiccontextshallbeensured.

c.Innovativeformsofworkthatensurequalityworkingconditionsshallbefostered.

Entrepreneurshipandself-employmentshallbeencouraged.Occupationalmobility

shallbefacilitated.

d.Employmentrelationshipsthatleadtoprecariousworkingconditionsshallbe

prevented,includingbyprohibitingabuseofatypicalcontracts.Anyprobationperiod

shouldbeofreasonableduration.

6.Wages

a.Workershavetherighttofairwagesthatprovideforadecentstandardofliving.

b.Adequateminimumwagesshallbeensured,inawaythatprovideforthe

satisfactionoftheneedsoftheworkerandhis/herfamilyinthelightofnational

economicandsocialconditions,whilstsafeguardingaccesstoemploymentand

incentivestoseekwork.In-workpovertyshallbeprevented.

c.Allwagesshallbesetinatransparentandpredictablewayaccordingtonational

practicesandrespectingtheautonomyofthesocialpartners.

7.Informationaboutemploymentconditionsandprotectionincaseofdismissals

a.Workershavetherighttobeinformedinwritingatthestartofemploymentabout

theirrightsandobligationsresultingfromtheemploymentrelationship,includingon

probationperiod.

b.Priortoanydismissal,workershavetherighttobeinformedofthereasonsandbe

grantedareasonableperiodofnotice.Theyhavetherighttoaccesstoeffectiveand

impartialdisputeresolutionand,incaseofunjustifieddismissal,arighttoredress,

Page 52: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

52|P a g e

includingadequatecompensation.

8.Socialdialogueandinvolvementofworkers

a.Thesocialpartnersshallbeconsultedonthedesignandimplementationof

economic,employmentandsocialpoliciesaccordingtonationalpractices.Theyshall

beencouragedtonegotiateandconcludecollectiveagreementsinmattersrelevantto

them,whilerespectingtheirautonomyandtherighttocollectiveaction.Where

appropriate,agreementsconcludedbetweenthesocialpartnersshallbeimplemented

attheleveloftheUnionanditsMemberStates.

b.Workersortheirrepresentativeshavetherighttobeinformedandconsultedingood

timeonmattersrelevanttothem,inparticularonthetransfer,restructuringandmerger

ofundertakingsandoncollectiveredundancies.

c.Supportforincreasedcapacityofsocialpartnerstopromotesocialdialogueshallbe

encouraged.

9.Work-lifebalance

Parentsandpeoplewithcaringresponsibilitieshavetherighttosuitableleave,flexible

workingarrangementsandaccesstocareservices.Womenandmenshallhaveequal

accesstospecialleavesofabsenceinordertofulfiltheircaringresponsibilitiesandbe

encouragedtousetheminabalancedway.

10.Healthy,safeandwell-adaptedworkenvironmentanddataprotection

a.Workershavetherighttoahighlevelofprotectionoftheirhealthandsafetyat

work.

b.Workershavetherighttoaworkingenvironmentadaptedtotheirprofessional

needsandwhichenablesthemtoprolongtheirparticipationinthelabourmarket.

c.Workershavetherighttohavetheirpersonaldataprotectedintheemployment

context.

ChapterIII:Socialprotectionandinclusion

11.Childcareandsupporttochildren

a.Childrenhavetherighttoaffordableearlychildhoodeducationandcareofgood

quality.

b.Childrenhavetherighttoprotectionfrompoverty.Childrenfromdisadvantaged

backgroundshavetherighttospecificmeasurestoenhanceequalopportunities.

Page 53: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

53|P a g e

12.Socialprotection

Regardlessofthetypeanddurationoftheiremploymentrelationship,workers,and,

undercomparableconditions,theself-employed,havetherighttoadequatesocial

protection.

13.Unemploymentbenefits

Theunemployedhavetherighttoadequateactivationsupportfrompublic

employmentservicesto(re)integrateinthelabourmarketandadequateunemployment

benefitsofreasonableduration,inlinewiththeircontributionsandnationaleligibility

rules.Suchbenefitsshallnotconstituteadisincentiveforaquickreturnto

employment.

14.Minimumincome

Everyonelackingsufficientresourceshastherighttoadequateminimumincome

benefitsensuringalifeindignityatallstagesoflife,andeffectiveaccesstoenabling

goodsandservices.Forthosewhocanwork,minimumincomebenefitsshouldbe

combinedwithincentivesto(re)integrateintothelabourmarket.

15.Oldageincomeandpensions

a.Workersandtheself-employedinretirementhavetherighttoapension

commensuratetotheircontributionsandensuringanadequateincome.Womenand

menshallhaveequalopportunitiestoacquirepensionrights.

b.Everyoneinoldagehastherighttoresourcesthatensurelivingindignity.

16.Healthcare

Everyonehastherighttotimelyaccesstoaffordable,preventiveandcurativehealth

careofgoodquality.

17.Inclusionofpeoplewithdisabilities

Peoplewithdisabilitieshavetherighttoincomesupportthatensureslivingindignity,

servicesthatenablethemtoparticipateinthelabourmarketandinsociety,andawork

environmentadaptedtotheirneeds.

18.Long-termcare

Everyonehastherighttoaffordablelong-termcareservicesofgoodquality,in

particularhome-careandcommunity-basedservices.

19.Housingandassistanceforthehomeless

Page 54: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

54|P a g e

a.Accesstosocialhousingorhousingassistanceofgoodqualityshallbeprovidedfor

thoseinneed.

b.Vulnerablepeoplehavetherighttoappropriateassistanceandprotectionagainst

forcedeviction.

c.Adequateshelterandservicesshallbeprovidedtothehomelessinordertopromote

theirsocialinclusion.

20.Accesstoessentialservices

Everyonehastherighttoaccessessentialservices.

Page 55: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

55|P a g e

9.2 Annex 2: Legal Regulations on the Organization of Working Time: The European Working Time Directive

TheEuropeanWorkingTimeDirectivestipulatesthattheaverageworkingtimeforeach

seven-dayperiod,includingovertime,maynotexceed48hours.Inaddition,

everyworkerisentitledtoaminimumdailyrestperiodof11consecutivehours

per24-hourperiod.TheGermanWorkingTimeAct(Arbeitszeitgesetz)aims,

amongotherthings,toensurethehealthandsafetyofworkersandtodesign

theframeworkforflexibleworkingtimewiththisinmind.TheActistherefore

basedontheprincipleofaneight-hourdayandsixworkingdaysperweek.

Workingtimeonaworkingdaycanbeextendedtouptotenhourswithoutany

specialjustification.Theremustbeanoffset,reducingtheaverageworking

timetoeighthours,withinsixcalendarmonthsor24weeks.Workersareentitled

toanuninterrupted11-hourrestperiodaftertheendoftheirdailyworking

time.Inprinciple,Sundayistheweeklyrestday.

Itispossibleforworkingtimetoexceedtenhours.Acollectiveagreement

canstipulatethat,forexample,workingtimeisextendedtoovertenhourson

workingdaysinthecaseofreadinessforwork(e.g.securityservices)oron-call

service(e.g.hospitals,worksfirebrigades),andinspecialcircumstancesthisis

alsopossiblewithoutthisextensionbeingoffset(opt-out).Therearealsocertain

sectors(agriculture;treatment-,long-termcareandcare-services;publicservice)

wherelongerworkingtimescanbepermittedbymeansofacollectiveagreement.

Inaddition,thesupervisoryauthoritiescanpermitlongerdailyworking

timesincertaincases,forexampleforshiftwork,constructionandassembly

sites,andseasonalandcampaign-basedwork.

Derogationsfromthe11-hourdailyrestperiodarealsopossible.Forexample,

insomesectors(e.g.medical,long-termcareandcarefacilities,thehospitality

sector,transportbusinesses,agricultureandlivestockfarming)therestperiod

canbereducedtotenhours,ifthereductionisoffsetwithinfourweeksbythe

extensionofanotherrestperiodtoatleast12hours.Acollectiveagreement

canalsostipulateareductionofuptotwohoursintherestperiod,resultingin

Page 56: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

56|P a g e

anine-hourperiod,providedthatthisisrequiredbythetypeofwork.Moreover,

socialpartnerscanallowforcorrespondingregulationstobeintroducedinaworks

agreementoranagreementbetweentheemployerandstaffcouncil.

Ifemployeesworkintheirleisuretime(restperiod),thismust,inprinciple,

beregardedasworkingtimewithinthecontextoftheWorkingTimeAct.The

employerisresponsibleforensuringthatworkingtimesexceedingeighthours

onworkingdaysarerecorded.Ingeneral,theemployerhasanobligationto

ensurethatemployeescomplywiththestatutoryregulations.TheWorkingTime

Actdoesnotapplytoseniorstaff,however.

Intheeventthatthestipulatedrestperiod,generallyelevenhours,isinterrupted,

itstartsagainfromzero.TheEUWorkingTimeDirectiveoffersnoleeway

fora“deminimisarrangement”forshortinterruptions(e.g.writingane-mail).

Occupationalsafetyandhealthprovisions,aslaiddownintheSafetyand

HealthatWorkAct(Arbeitsschutzgesetz)andtheassociatedordinances,play

animportantroleinshapingspecificworkingconditions.Riskassessments

mustalsobecarriedouttoidentifytherisksofmobileworking,enablingthe

employerandworkscounciltorespondbyadoptinghealthandsafetymeasures

andworkplace-levelregulations.

Page 57: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

57|P a g e

9.3 Annex 3: Survey on European Attitudes towards Unconditional Basic Income

Surveyof11,000Europeansfinds68%wouldvoteforbasicincome

Source:http://basicincome.org/news/2017/05/survey-of-11000-europeans-finds-68-would-vote-for-

basic-income/

DaliaResearchhasreleasedtheresultsofitssecondmajorsurveyonattitudestowardbasic

income,pollingover11,000individualsfromacrosstheEuropeanUnion.

DaliaResearch,aBerlin-basedmarketresearchcompany,conducteditsfirstsurveyof

Europeans’attitudesonbasicincomeinMarch2016,whichyieldedthewidelypublicizedresult

that64%ofEuropeanswouldvoteforabasicincomereferendumifonewereimmediatelyheld

intheircountry.Thecompanynowplanstoconductsuchasurveyannually,andhaslately

releasedtheresultsofitssecondsurvey,conductedinMarch2017.

Foritsmostrecentbasicincomesurvey,DaliaResearchinterviewed11,021peoplebetweenthe

agesof14and65,selectedfromall28EUmemberstates(aslightlylargersamplethanwasused

inits2016study,whichsampled10,000fromthesameagegroupandgeographicalregions).The

surveywasdesignedtobecensusrepresentative,meaningthatthesamplewasselectedand

dataweightedtoreflecttheoveralldemographiccharacteristicsoftheEUascloselyaspossible,

withrespecttoregion,age,gender,educationlevel,andrural/urbanstatus.

Thesurveyhasamarginoferrorofplusorminus1.1%ata95%confidencelevel(thatis,the

surveywasdesignedsuchthat,ifitwereconductedrepeatedly,thenon95%ofoccasionsthe

estimatedlevelofpopularsupportforbasicincome,forexample,wouldliewithin1.1

percentagepointsoftheactuallevelsupportamongallEuropeans).

Surveyrespondentswerefirstposedthequestion“Howfamiliarareyouwiththeconceptknown

asbasicincome?”Thisquestionwasaskedpriortopresentinganydefinitionoftheterm.

Inresponse,24%claimedto“understanditfully,”withanother39%claimingto“know

somethingaboutit.”Another25%ofrespondentsstatedthatthey“haveheardjustalittleabout

basicincome,”and13%claimedto“knownothingaboutit.”Comparingthesedatatothe2016

survey,thepercentageofrespondentsindicatedthattheyknow“somethingabout”theidea

increasedsignificantly(upfrom35%),whilethepercentagewhohad“neverheardofit”

decreasedsignificantly(downfrom17%).

Followingthispreliminaryquestion,surveyrespondentswerepresentedwithadefinitionof

‘basicincome’tobeassumedfortheremainedofthesurvey:“Abasicincomeisanincome

Page 58: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

58|P a g e

unconditionallypaidbythegovernmenttoeveryindividualregardlessofwhethertheyworkand

irrespectiveofanyothersourcesofincome.Itreplacesothersocialsecuritypaymentsandis

highenoughtocoverallbasicneeds(food,housingetc.).”Thisis,verbatim,thesamedefinition

adoptedbyDaliaResearchforits2016survey.

ItshouldbenotedthatDalia’sdefinitiondiffersfromBIEN’sand,indeed,ismorestrict.Unlike

thedefinitionusedbyDalia,BIEN’sdefinitiondoesnotstipulatethatthebasicincomemustbe

“highenoughtocoverallbasicneeds”northatthebasicincomemust“replaceothersocial

securitypayments.”Thus,anypolicythatmeetsthesurvey’sdefinitionof‘basicincome’isa

policythatBIENwouldalsocountassuch;however,thesurveydoesnotencompasseverypolicy

thatBIENwouldconsiderabasicincome.

Withthisdefinitioninplace,DaliaResearchaskedfivefurtherquestions:

1.“Iftherewouldbeareferendumonintroducingbasicincometoday,howwouldyouvote?”

2.“Atwhatpointdoyouthinkyourcountryshouldintroducebasicincome?”

3.“WhichoftheargumentsFORbasicincomedoyoufindconvincing?”

4.“WhichofthefollowingargumentsAGAINSTthebasicincomedoyoufindconvincing?”

5.“Whatcouldbethemostlikelyeffectofbasicincomeonyourworkchoices?”

SupportforaBasicIncomeReferendum

Inresponsetothefirstquestion,68%ofrespondentssaidthatifareferendumonbasicincome

wasintroducednow,theywouldvoteforit.In2016,thisnumberstoodat64%.Thus,takinginto

accountthemarginoferror,supportforbasicincomeappearstohaveincreasedslightlyacross

theEUinthepastyear.Meanwhile,theproportionwhosaidthattheywouldopposethe

referendumremainedstable,at24%.

Page 59: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

59|P a g e

ComparingresponsesbetweenthesixlargestEuropeancountries,DaliaResearchfoundthat

supportwashighestinItaly,wheretheproportionofrespondentswillingtovoteforabasic

incomereferendumincreasedbysixpercentagepointssince2016,overtakingthelevelof

supportinSpain(whichhadshowedthehighestlevelofsupportin2016).

TheUK(whichsawanincreaseinsupportofsevenpercentagepoints),Spain,andGermanyall

standataround68-69%support.

Page 60: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

60|P a g e

WhenDoEuropeansWantBasicIncome?

Although24%ofrespondentssaidthattheywouldvoteagainstabasicincomereferendumheld

atpresent,only8%statedthattheythinkthattheircountryshouldneverintroduceabasic

income,withanadditional13%notfavoringthepolicyfor“anytimeinthenearfuture.”

Atthesametime,33%supportedabasicincome“assoonaspossible”intheirrespective

countries,withotherspreferringtowaitforsuccessfulexperimentsintheirowncountry(32%)

orinothercountries(16%).

Page 61: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

61|P a g e

ArgumentsForandAgainst

Inthenexttwoquestions,respondentsweresuppliedwithlistsofsixreasonsthatmightbe

givenfororagainstabasicincome(respectively)andpermittedtoselectasmanyasthey

believedtobe“convincing.”

Outofthelistedargumentsforbasicincome,thethreethatwerejudgedconvincingbythe

greatestproportionofsurveyrespondentswere:“Itreducesanxietyaboutfinancingbasic

needs”(52%),“Itcreatesmoreequalityofopportunity”(42%),and“Itencouragesfinancial

independenceandself-responsibility”(32%).

Thesewerealsofoundtobethethreemostpopular“for”argumentsinthe2016survey,which

examinedthesamelistofarguments(bothproandcon).However,theproportionof

respondentswhojudgedthemconvincingincreasedfrom40%,31%,and23%,respectively.The

levelofsupportfortheremainingthreeargumentsalsoincreased(from21%,21%,and16%,

respectively).

Page 62: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

62|P a g e

Whenconsideringtheopposingviews,52%ofrespondents“foundconvincing”theargument

thatabasicincome“mightencouragepeopletostopworking”.Thiswasalsotheargument

againstbasicincomethatappearstohaveseenthegreatestincreaseinitsattractionsincethe

2016poll,when43%ofrespondentsconsidereditconvincing.

Thenextmostpersuasiveargumentsagainstbasicincome,outofthosetested,were“Foreigners

mightcometomycountryandtakeadvantageofthebenefit”(39%foundconvincing,versus

34%in2016),“Onlythepeoplewhoneeditmostshouldgetsomethingfromthestate”(34%,vs

32%in2016),and“Itisimpossibletofinance”(34%,vs32%in2016).

Page 63: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

63|P a g e

Outofthosesurveyed,16%foundnoneofthesixgiven“for”argumentstobeconvincing(in

comparisonto22%in2016),and12%foundnoneoftheprovided“against”argumentstobeso

(incomparisonto15%).

“WhatWouldYouDo…?”

Forthefinalquestion(“Whatcouldbethemostlikelyeffectofbasicincomeonyourwork

choices?”),respondentswererequiredtoselectonlyoneoptionfromalistofresponses.Here,

37%ofrespondentsclaimedthatbasicincomewouldnotaffecttheirworkchoices,while17%

claimedthattheywouldspendmoretimewithfamily.Thethirdmostcommonresponsewas

“Noneoftheabove.”

Page 64: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

64|P a g e

Onecomplicationtointerpretingthesedataliesinfactthat,althoughselectionwasexclusive

(respondentscouldchooseonlyoneanswer),manyoftheanswersdescribebehaviorsthatare

compatible.Togivejustoneexample,apersonwhochosesto“spendmoretimewithfamily”or

“domorevolunteeringwork”wouldpresumablyalsobelikelyto“workless”asmeansof

securingthisend;however,“workless”waspresentedadistinctoption.Itwouldthusbe

misleading,forexample,topresenttheresultsofthequestionbyclaimingthat“only11%would

stopworkingorworkless,”sinceotherresponseoptionsarecompatiblewiththesechoices(and

mightevenpresupposethatrespondentsplantospendlesstimeinpaidwork).

Page 65: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

65|P a g e

10 List of References

BIEN–BasicIncomeNetwork(2017)“Surveyof11,000Europeansfinds68%wouldvoteforbasicincome”,availableat:http://basicincome.org/news/2017/05/survey-of-11000-europeans-finds-68-would-vote-for-basic-income/[Accessed10November2017]

BMAS-GermanMinistryofLaborandSocialAffairs(2017)“WeissbuchWorking4.0”,Englishtextavailableat:http://www.bmas.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/PDF-Publikationen/a883-white-paper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3[Accessed7November2017]

Delors,J.etal.(2015)“ErasmusPro:ForaMillion‘YoungEuropeanApprentices’by2020”,JacquesDelorsInsitute,availableat:http://www.institutdelors.eu/media/youthemployment-jdi-may15.pdf?pdf=ok[Accessed7November2017]

DJB–DeutscherJuristinnenbund(2016)“KonzeptioneinesWahlarbeitszeitgesetzes”,availableat:https://www.djb.de/themen/wahlarbeitszeit/wazg-konzept/#_ftn9[Accessed10November2017]

Dreger,C.etal.(2015)“WageandIncomeInequalityintheEuropeanUnion”,studyfortheEMPLCommittee,availableat:http://www.ub.edu/irea/european.pdf[Accessed10Novemner2017]

EuropeanCommission(2015)“EmploymentandSocialDevelopmentsinEurope2014”,availableathttp://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=738&langId=en&pubId=7736[Accessed10November2017]

EuropeanCommission(2017)“CommissionRecommendationof26.4.2017ontheEuropeanPillarofSocialRights”,availableat:https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/commission-recommendation-establishing-european-pillar-social-rights_de[Accessed10November2017]

Frazer,H.&Marlier,E.(2016)“MinimumincomeschemesinEurope:Astudyofnationalpolicies”,EuropeanSocialPolicyNetwork(ESPN),availableat:ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=15304&langId=en[Accessed10November2017]

Healy,S.(2017)“StrategiestocombatpovertyandgeneratedecentemploymentintheEuropeanUnion”,PresentationatUNExpertGroup,availableat:https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2017/04/2017-05-01-UN-paper-Sean-Healy-FINAL.pdf[Accessed10November2017]

Manyika,J.(2017)“Technology,Jobs,andtheFutureofWork”,ExecutiveBriefing,McKinseyGlobalInstitute,availableat:https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/technology-jobs-and-the-future-of-work[Accessed10November2017]

Martinelli,L.(2017)“TheFiscalandDistributionalImplicationsofAlternativeUniversalBasicIncomeSchemesintheUK”,IPRWorkingPaper,availableat:http://www.bath.ac.uk/publications/the-fiscal-and-distributional-implications-of-alternative-universal-basic-income-schemes-in-the-uk/attachments/Basic_Income_Working_Paper.pdf[Accessed10November2017]

Peña-Casas,R.&Ghailani,D.(2013)“TowardsaEuropeanMinimumIncome”,FinalreportfortheEuropeanEconomicandSocialCommittee,availableat:http://www.eesc.europa.eu/resources/docs/qe-02-13-510-en-c.pdf[Accessed10November2017]

Page 66: The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe?of+Work.pdf · The Future of Work What Opportunities for VOX Europe? A Policy Position Proposal (3P) for VOX Europe Konrad von

66|P a g e

Rinaldi,D.etal.(2016)“AnewstartforSocialEurope”,ReportfortheJacquesDelorsInstitute,availableat:http://www.institutdelors.eu/media/newstartsocialeurope-rinaldi-jdi-feb16.pdf?pdf=ok[Accessed7November2017]

TheEconomist(2016a)“Universalbasicincomes:Sighingforparadisetocome”,availableat:https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21699910-arguments-state-stipend-payable-all-citizens-are-being-heard-more-widely-sighing[Accessed10November2017]

TheEconomist(2016b)“TheEconomistexplains:Universalbasicincomes”,availableat:https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/06/economist-explains-4[Accessed10November2017]

TheEconomist(2017)“Northernpilot:Finlandtestsanewformofwelfare”,availableat:https://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21723759-experiment-effect-offering-unemployed-new-form[Accessed10November2017]