The Future of technology….& the end of government as we know IT? Peter Cochrane ConceptLabs CA.
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Transcript of The Future of technology….& the end of government as we know IT? Peter Cochrane ConceptLabs CA.
The Future of technology….& the end of government as we know IT?
Peter CochraneConceptLabs CA
Disruptive technologies - Example
A homework assignment for a 14 year old!
You may wish to close your eyes
Where have we come from…
…and where are we heading?
Satanic Mills
Fordism…•mass production•mass automation•increased efficiency•much more for much less•deskilling•fewer employed•a new techno-elite•more administration•more non-essential people
Growing hierarchies•centralized control•less risk taking •focus on cost cutting •less adaptable •prone to massive failure
Virtual business• no hierarchies
• death of geography
• fluctuating assets
• information intensive
• highly adaptable
• rapid birth - death
Machine takeover•very few people•humans augmentation•AI & AL takeover •adaptable within limits•prone to over production
Industry migrating to geographically dispersed networks and clusters…
…the globalisation of everything…
The co-location=collaboration myth
~10%~2%
~0.4%
Likelihood ofcollaboration
And governments?•change is very hard!•lagging on all fronts•limited public purse•not really a business •no competition•old minds •growing hierarchy•growing bureaucracy•losing control•losing influence
People are doing…
whatever it takes to win!
They will no longer wait for slowcompanies or government - they are now far more inclined to ignore the law and just do it!
Three types of workerPart-time
Projectfocusedcontractor
Core
•Agiltiy•Costefficiency
Lifestylepursuit
•Skilladvantage
•Innovation
CareerSecurity
•Skillutilisation•Goal focus
ExpressionAutonomy
Individual benefits
Business benefits
Challenges for the individual•understand company•understand business•keep skilled•track technology demand •share commitment•no back up/support •work in virtual teams•use latest media•balance demands•feast to famine cycles
BUT - some peoplejust don’t get IT!
We have come a long way!
We are such linear thinkers…We don’t cope well with multiple dimensionsWe confuse data and informationWe store the useless and misplace the useful We need knowledge but create a fog of confusion Networks and networking might just save us!
BUT
So innocent looking…
y= ex
…it is compound interest on steroids!
Time
Rate of change
Today
Technology
SocietyPeople
CompaniesBusiness
Legal SystemsGovernments
It aint about $ - it is about time
A future of man, woman & machine...
1940 20101950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.1110
10101010
101010101010
10101010
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
10
9
11
12
13
15
17
1000xVacuum tubes Transistors
Integrated circuitsMicro-processors
Relays
UNIVAC ScalarENIAC
IBM 704
Stretch
LARC
CDC1604
CDC 6600
CDC 7600
ILLIAC IVCray -2
Cray C-90
Cray-1Cray X-MP
Cray Y-MP
CM-2Delta
CM-5
TeraflopHuman Brain
100,000Teraflopdesktop
SUPERCOMPUTERS
Vector
Multiprocessors
Massively parallel
FLOPS
time
Technology$
The ‘S’ Curve
time
Technology$
The ‘S’ Curve Continuum
CassetteTape
CD
DVD
Tape
Moore’s Wall
ThermionicTube
Transistor
IC1
IC2
IC3
IC4
IC5
ICn
1915 46 59 2010 2025
3D ICsMolecularQuantumGeneticBiologicalOptical Computing
NewSensorsNetworksSoftwareLifeformsIntelligences
Log Scale
Telecoms Capacity & Demand
1011
109
107
105
103
101
transmissioncapacity
(bit/s)
1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 2040
capacity used
capacity available
WDM
optical fibre
coax PCM
coax carrier
pair-cable PCM
pair-cable carrier
radio
telegraph
telephone
DWDMPONS
Analogue Digital Analogue Digital An/Dig
Information Growth
Library ofAlexandriadestroyed
Printing
Electronicstorage
1000,000
TBytes
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
10
1
0.1
100 300 1000 2000 Year
The fountof all
knowledge
Becomingspecialised
Highly specialised
All knowledgethrough
technology?
1800 1900 TODAY 2000 +
No one knows anything anymore...
If only it was all this simple...
Markets
Va
riab
les
Sources of return
Industry Dimensions
Competition
Regulation
Globalisation
Segmentation
CustomersTechnology
Convergence
Organisation
Strategy
Social
Economic
Political
Axiom 1: Mutually exclusive...
ProcessDefinitionControlHierarchy
Adaptable - Fleet of FootReliability
EfficiencyBrittleness
Axiom 2: Mutually exclusive...
Security, Constraints, Irrationality,Lack of understanding, Rumour…
Risk
Productivity
WealthGenerationCreativityFreedom
Not so Axiomatic… ...Exponential Failure
Analogue Digital
Brittleness Is it brittle?
Is it visible?
I only see itwhen it fails!
Sudden, cliff Like failures
Exponentially more for exponentially less...
1890 1990
Cost/Bit Bit/s
Rec
ycle
Trash
Consumer
Trash Consumer
Distribution ManufactureRaw
MaterialsRETAIL
Ecosystem
Rec
ycle
Trash
Consumer
Trash Consumer
Distribution ManufactureRaw
MaterialsRETAIL
Ecosystem
B-B B-B B-B
B-CC-CC-BMobile
Linear Channel
Adam Smith…et al3/4D Thinking
Finite Source
Finite Sink
Limited materialsproductionroutes to marketfinancecommunication
Limited populationappetitesexpectationfinancecommunication
TodaynD - NonLinear Thinking
Unlimited (materials?) - bitsproductionroutes to marketfinancecommunication
Unlimited populationappetitesexpectationfinancecommunication
Infinite Sink
Infinite Source
NonLinear
Channel/s
The Future is Chaos!
HierarchicalStructured
Self- Organisedand Chaotic
2000s1980s
Telegraph Telephone Internet ? Intranets
A connected world is chaotic….
00.00 06.00 12.00 18.00 24.00
0
100
50
200
150
Hour of the Day
ActiveSite Visitors
Net visitors come in packs….
The dotcom bust!
• Greed• Stupidity• Naivety• The old economy torpedoed the new• No bandwidth in the local loop!
But this is but a glitch - the internet is very young - and so are mobile phones, PDAs, PCs, wearables, things & people on line etc
3G Carnage!
If we ran a company....
Company
Raw Materials
ComponentsModules
Direct Customers
Sub-ContractsDealerships
If we ran a company....
Company
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Get the utilisation up... ...get the costs down...
But many companies do this....
Unit
Raw Materials
Direct Customers
Let’s create expense by internal constraints... ...and an internal only market...
Many companies...don’t do this...
Co
Co
Co
Co
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
They do this...
Co
Co
Co
Co
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
And worse....they stove pipe...
Co
Co
Co
Co
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
CoNetwork
Solutions
Operations
Systems
If only more companies looked.. like this...
Network
Solutions
Operations
Systems
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
From the few to the many...Concentrated
Expertise & SkillDistributedIgnorance
Technology
Telephone Operators Dial & ButtonsComputing Mainframe PCCopiers Corp Centre Office XeroxPrinting Hot Metal Offset/Laser Jet
From the few to the many...Concentrated
Expertise & SkillDistributedIgnorance
Technology
N
$
~Nn
Ab
ility
to
Com
pet
e
Where is the energy?
Dispersed - ChaoticAdaptable Fleet of Foot
Internalised Externalised
Technology
Centralised Control - HierarchyInflexible & Ponderous
Recent experience…
Fixed Cellular LAN WLAN Phone Phone 802.11
NO• WLAN• LAN• 2nd Phone Line• Socket Standard
Getting on-line in the EU
The future - think beyond IT!Artificial IntelligenceArtificial LifeRoboticsMaterialsGeneticsProteonicsNonoTechNon-linear opticsQuantum computinget al
More & fasterchange than everbefore in ourhistory - and itwill be (slightly!)out of control
The really big issues?Ageing populations - fewer workersHealth & Care - less money more demandEducation & Training - the wrong modelLogistics - can we afford to keep travellingEnergy - we are eating the planetSecurity - a 13th century enemy?Defence - just who & where is the enemy?Globalization - inevitable but hard to doCan government keep up/be effective?Can government get out of the way?Can social research ever get relevant?Can technology help?
Net Spectrum
100%
0%
HierarchyControl
Traffic
Random Bursty Chaotic
100%Telephone Internet Parasitic
ResilienceLatencyFlexibilityReliabilityScalability
Internet
Parasitic
Economy
Static Mobile
0%
What do we need?Less government and controlMore freedom of communicationMore freedom of movementMore freedom of actionMore freedom of trade Lower hierarchiesMore start-up companies to replace the oldA better educated & more adaptable populationMore self sufficiency
In order to create vibrant economies!
Thank you,
cochrane.org.ukconceptlabs.net