The Future of Business London - 10 06 16
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Future Business Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions 10 June 2016 | London The world’s leading open foresight program
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Future of Business and Society By 2025, organisa0ons driven solely by profit will not be sustainable.
How will they evolve to address new challenges, develop opportuni0es and contribute to society?
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Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program
that accesses mul0ple views of the next decade so we can all be beOer informed and s0mulate innova0on.
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Looking Forwards Organisa0ons increasingly want to iden0fy and understand
both the an0cipated and unexpected changes so that they can be beOer prepared for the future.
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Future Agenda 1.0 Top Insights for 2020 From the 2010 program, 52 key insights on the next decade were shared widely and have been extensively used by organisa0ons around the world.
Future Agenda became the world’s largest open foresight plaRorm.
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Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in
25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-‐to-‐face interac0on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion.
Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 24 TOPICS 35 COUNTRIES 120 WORKSHOPS 5000 ORGANISATIONS
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Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The second version of the Future Agenda program took place during 2015 and addressed 24 topics via 120 events across 45 ci0es in 35 countries in partnership with 50 core hosts.
Ci0es
Educa0on
Learning
Transport
Collabora0on
Energy
Loyalty
Travel
Company
Faith
Payments
Water
Connec0vity
Food
Privacy
Wealth
Currency
Government
Resources
Work
Ageing
Data
Health
Trade
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The World in 2025 | Some Contextual ShiRs for the Next Decade
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Everything Connected Over 1 trillion sensors are connected to mul0ple networks: everything that can benefit from a connec0on has one. We deliver 10,000x more data 100x more effec0vely but are concerned about the security of the informa0on that flows.
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Imbalanced PopulaUon Growth A growing popula0on adds another billion people but it is also rapidly ageing: a child born next year will live 6 months longer than one born today. While migra0on helps to rebalance, increasing dependency ra0os challenge many.
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ShiRing Power and Influence The centre of gravity of economic power con0nues shibing eastwards, back to where it was 200 years ago. Recent superpowers seek to moderate the pace of change but the reali0es of popula0on and resource loca0ons are immoveable.
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Air Quality Rising air pollu0on in many ci0es is killing people and becomes a visible catalyst for changing mind-‐sets and policies across
health, energy, transporta0on and urban design.
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Autonomous Vehicles The shib to fully autonomous transport is an evolu0on via truck platoons on highways and small urban delivery pods. Connected cars create the network and test the technologies for the eventual revolu0onary driverless experience.
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OpUmising Last Mile Delivery Seamless, integrated and shared last-‐mile delivery replaces inefficient
compe00on and duplica0on of goods distribu0on. Greater efficiency in moving things is as important as in moving people and so a major focus for innova0on.
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Food Waste 30-‐50% of our food is wasted either in the supply chain or in consump0on and could feed another 3 billion. Op0mising distribu0on and storage in developing countries and enabling beOer consumer informa0on in others could solve this.
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Affordable Healthcare The escala0ng cost of healthcare is further stressed by the need to support the old and the chronically ill. Spending 20% of GDP on healthcare is seen as unsustainable so hard decisions are taken around budgets and priori0es.
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AcceleraUng Displacement Climate change, conflict, resource shortages, inequality and poli0cal elites
unwilling to bring about necessary change all trigger unprecedented migra0on to the North. As many as 1 billion people could be on the move.
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Rising Youth Unemployment With unemployment rates over 50% in some na0ons, access to work is a rising barrier. Especially across North Africa, the Middle East and southern Europe, a lost genera0on of 100m young people fails to gain from global growth.
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CiUzen-‐Centric CiUes Successful ci0es will be designed around the needs and desires of increasingly empowered and enabled ci0zens -‐ who are expec0ng personalized services from the organisa0ons that serve them.
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EducaUon RevoluUon Broader access to improved educa0on acts as a major catalyst for
empowerment, sustained economic growth, overcoming inequality and reducing conflict. We need an educa0on system fit for the digital revolu0on.
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CreaUve Economy The crea0ve economy helps to build inclusive and sustainable cultures. What’s more, it generates wealth. To build scale it requires a workforce
comfortable with collabora0on, cri0cal thinking and the ability to take a risk.
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SomeUmes Nomads Elec0ve migra0on, cheap travel, interna0onal knowledge sharing and
increasingly transient working models create connected nomads who mix the tradi0ons of home with the values and customs of their host loca0on.
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Agelessness A person’s physical age becomes less important as society adapts to the new demographic landscape. New opportuni0es arise for creators and consumers of all ages, though benefits are oben only for the wealthy.
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Female Choice Dilemma Women in richer economies have greater choice, and with it increased
control and influence. This con0nues to drive change and decision-‐making but globally the baOle for female equality has a long road to travel.
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Rise of the Cult of China As China’s economic influence on the world increases there is a rise in the cult of China in popular imagina0ons elsewhere. Myths of both hope and fear will proliferate as China’s cultural influence increases.
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Africa Growth With a land mass bigger than India, China, the US and Europe combined, few doubt the scale of the African con0nent and its resources. However, un0l
recently, only some have seen it as the growth market that it is fast becoming.
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Changing Business
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The Value of Data As organisa0ons try to retain as much informa0on about their customers as possible, data becomes a currency with a value and a price. It therefore
requires a marketplace where anything that is informa0on is represented.
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Rising Cyber Security Greater interconnec0vity and the Internet of Things creates new
vulnerabili0es for governments and corpora0ons -‐ as the unscrupulous and the criminal increasingly seek to exploit weakness and destroy systems.
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Working Longer People are having to work for longer to support longer re0rements.
Flexible working prac0ces and policies are emerging, but some employers con0nue to remain ambivalent about older workers.
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Skills ConcentraUons The need to build and develop capabili0es becomes increasingly challenging for companies and workers alike. Those who benefit from the high-‐skill reward
opportuni0es remain a select group who move ahead of the urban pack.
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Hollowing Out the Professions Technology is challenging the white-‐collar worker and automa0ng both middle and high-‐end jobs. The future will see fewer accountants, lawyers and doctors and a hollowing out of the previously ‘safe’ professions.
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The Human Touch In a world of global and digital marke0ng and consump0on,
consumers will increasingly favour those brands that can offer more emo0onal engagements, and specifically human-‐to-‐human contact.
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Deeper CollaboraUon Partnerships shib to become more dynamic, long-‐term, democra0sed,
mul0-‐party collabora0ons. Compe0tor alliances and wider public par0cipa0on drive regulators to create new legal frameworks for open, empathe0c collabora0on.
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Companies with Purpose As trust in ‘business’ declines, structures and prac0ces of large corpora0ons are under scru0ny. Businesses come under greater pressure to improve
performance on environmental, social and governance issues.
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The Real Sharing Economy Increasing collabora0on drives organisa0ons to reconfigure based on social networks and impact. Real sharing enterprises, not driven by profits, seek
to share resources, knowledge, and decision-‐making responsibili0es.
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Dynamic Pricing The algorithms of Amazon and Uber cross over to affect more businesses,
from energy use to parking. Real-‐0me transparency allows beOer purchasing at the same 0me as margins and yields are automa0cally enhanced.
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Currencies of Meaning New trusted currencies of exchange and meaning emerge to
facilitate transac0ons, trade, authen0ca0on and valida0on. Money is complemented by new systems to which we aOach greater significance.
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ConUnuous Proof of Loyalty Brands have to consistently demonstrate their loyalty to consumers
as customer mobility and switching between brands increases. Global, regional and local affilia0ons blur and drive wider brand consolida0on.
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Speed to Scale Greater global connec0vity, growing consumer wealth and broader reach all combine to accelerate the 0me to 1bn customers and a $10bn valua0on for start-‐ups and new corporate ventures alike.
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OrganisaUon 3.0 New forms of flaOer, project-‐based, collabora0ve, virtual, informal
organisa0ons dominate -‐ enabled by technology and a mobile workforce. As such the nature of work and the role of the organisa0on blurs.
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