The Future Danish Energy System · 2019. 11. 27. · Professor Poul Erik Morthorst Systems Analysis...
Transcript of The Future Danish Energy System · 2019. 11. 27. · Professor Poul Erik Morthorst Systems Analysis...
The Future Danish Energy System - flexibility by system interactions
Professor Poul Erik Morthorst Systems Analysis Division
Long term Vision
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“ We can both reduce Danish emissions of greenhouse gasses significantly, and make Denmark independent of fossil fuels. This will require a total conversion of the Danish energy system”
- Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy
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Denmark in Perspective
Source: The Danish Energy Agency
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0
300
600
900
1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12
PJ
Oil Natural gas Coal and coke Renewable energy etc.
Gross energy consumption by fuelAdjusted
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Constant Energy Consumption in spite of strong growth in GDP
Source: The Danish Energy Agency
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012*
Inde
x: 1
990=
100
GDP and Energy Intensity
GDP, 2005-prices
Gross EnergyConsumption
Energy Intensities
0
300
600
900
1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12
PJ
Oil Natural gas Coal and coke Renewable energy etc.
Gross energy consumption by fuelAdjusted
… and CO2 emissions
Source: The Danish Energy Agency
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40
50
60
70
80
1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12
Observed Adjusted
Million tonnes CO2
CO2 emissions from energy consumption
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0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12
Total Oil
Degree of self-sufficiency
Large Domestic Production of Oil and Natural gas
Source: The Danish Energy Agency
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0
300
600
900
1990 '95 '00 '05 '11
PJ
Oil Natural gas Coal and coke Renewable energy etc.
Gross energy consumption by fuelAdjusted
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0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12
Gross energy consumption Final energy consumption
TJ per DKK million GDP (2005 prices, chained values)Adjusted
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12
District heating Electricity
0
500
1000
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3500
4000
4500
1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12
MW
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Wind power offshore capacity, MWWind power onshore capacity, MWWind power's share of domestic electricity
Three cornerstones in Danish Energy Policy
Renewables
Combined Heat and Power
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Energy Conservation
01020304050
60
20102011
2012% o
f dom
estic
pow
er c
onsu
mpt
ion
Central power plants' share of domestic power consumption
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Long term Vision
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“ We can both reduce Danish emissions of greenhouse gasses significantly, and make Denmark independent of fossil fuels. This will require a total conversion of the Danish energy system”
- Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy
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What do we need to do....
Source: Climate Commission
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Main Future Trends: • An Energy System dominated by electricity
• Intermittent sources will have to play a large role
•Wind Power Capacity x 6 • Solar??
• The Resource of Biomass is limited
• Radical change in trans-port system
• Electric cars, hydrogen, bio-ethanol.....?
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The Government’s Energy Plan
•2020: 50% of Danish Power
consumption is supplied by Wind Power
•2030: No use of coal in Danish Power
plants – no oil furnaces
•2035: All heat and power consumption is supplied by renewables
•2050: The entire Danish energy consumption is supplied by renewables
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Until 2020 Parliament has agreed on: • Energy Savings • Wind Power
• Offshore 1000 MW • Near Shore turbines 500 MW • More Land based 500 MW
• Biomass in central power plants
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What is the future of our energy system?
1980
Today
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Morthorst
Load duration curve for electricity consumption
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001
Hours
MW
Load duration curve for wind power production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001
Hours
MW
Load duration curve for electricity consumption minus wind power production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001
Hours
MW
This have consequences for the energy system!
01020304050
60
20102011
2012% o
f dom
estic
pow
er c
onsu
mpt
ion
Central power plants' share of domestic power consumption
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Which requirements do we foresee to the power system in the transition phase?
•Need for balancing wind • Interconnectors can do quite a lot • Balancing power is getting more international
•In periods with low wind we will need a back-up • Central and/or decentralised power plants running on
biomass or gas? • Will we politically accept a strong dependence on
interconnectors? • At least one large power plant is needed for black start in
East and West Denmark
•Flexibility in energy demand • Smart energy
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577 625 673 721
Hours in January '07
Win
d Pr
oduc
tion/
Pow
er C
onsu
mpt
ion
%
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Where will we get the heat from?
•Without the central power plants we will have a deficit of heat in the big cities • Heat pumps for district heating • Geothermal energy • Waste heat from industry and incineration plants
•What about the decentralised power plants? • Solar heating • Heat pumps for decentralised use
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Other needs to be fulfilled in the in the transition phase?
•Storage facilities might be required
• Hydrogen is a possibility • Natural gas is probably the cheapest way for longer time
storage
•Reconsider natural gas in combined heat and power after 2035 • Could give robustness to the energy system
•Natural gas is a good substitution for oil in
industry and transport
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CH42+C02
UpgradingMethan(CH4)
UpgradingMethan(CH4)
Biomass and waste
International gas grid infrastructure
BiomassdigesterBiomassdigester
Underground storage (salt caverns) Underground storage
(aquifer)
District heating
DH
Biofuelcatalysis
Methanol, DME,syn gasol, H2 etc.
Biofuelcatalysis
Methanol, DME,syn gasol, H2 etc.
PHEV with methanofuelcell
Biomass thermal
gasification
Biomass thermal
gasification
H2+CO
District heating
Biofuel (Methanol, DME, syn gasol etc)
DH
Biofuelcatalysis
Methanol, DME,syn gasol, H2 etc.
Biofuelcatalysis
Methanol, DME,syn gasol, H2 etc.
PHEV with methanofuelcell
Biomass thermal
gasification
Biomass thermal
gasification
H2+CO
District heating
Biofuel (Methanol, DME, syn gasol etc)
International power grid infrastructureInternational power grid infrastructure
District heating
Gasstorages
Peak shavingGasturbine, CC,
Fuelcell etc.
Peak shavingGasturbine, CC,
Fuelcell etc.ElectrolysisAlkalic,
SOEC etc.
ElectrolysisAlkalic,
SOEC etc.
Electricity (at low price) Electricity (at high price)
H2 +(CO)District heating
Gasstorages
Peak shavingGasturbine, CC,
Fuelcell etc.
Peak shavingGasturbine, CC,
Fuelcell etc.ElectrolysisAlkalic,
SOEC etc.
ElectrolysisAlkalic,
SOEC etc.
Electricity (at low price) Electricity (at high price)
H2 +(CO)
Integration of electricity, heat, gas and fuel-production
O2
Industry
Transport
Source: Energinet.dk 16
Two Major Threats for the Green Future
•Too expensive energy supply •Hurt our industrial competitiveness •Will shale gas and oil significantly impact Global
and European energy prices downwards?
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Source: DEA, US
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•Will shale gas be influencing Europe? • Poland experiences are not positive • LNG will flow into Europe, but will it have a
strong impact?
•Will US adventure continue? • Upfront investments take adventage of low
interest rate • Is the gas price sufficiently high to
continously generate new economic viable investments?
• Production is declining faster for shale wells than for conventional ones
Business Opportunity
•Leading developer of new and renewable technologies
•Doing very well on wind power and district heating
•Good international reputation
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0
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1996 '00 '05 '10 '12
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Exports of energy technology and equipment
Share of Denmark´s total exports of commodities (right axis)
Billion DKK, current prices
Exports of energy technology and equipment
Conclusions
• The energy system will change drastically over the next 30-40 years
• Preconditions are changing – how will shale gas impact Europe? • Much higher share of wind than today • It is important that we get a robust energy system
• There might be a large role to play for natural gas and
hydrogen in the future energy system • Need for balancing, back-up and storage of intermittent resources • A flexible fuel in industry and transport
• Increase energy system robustness
• Open up for more use of gas in the transition period
• New technologies are needed • Fuel cell electrolysis, thermal gasification… • Where do we get the heat from? Heat pumps, geothermal, solar.... • Complex interactions between power, gas, heat and
transport......
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Uncertainty and Expectation are the joys of life. Security is an insipid thing.
- William Congreve
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Thank you for your Attention
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Professor Poul Erik Morthorst The Technical University of Denmark
E-mail: [email protected]