The food revolution - UBS · Chapter 1 – On the cusp of revolution July 2019 – The food...

July 2019hief In est ent ffice

In est ent esea ch

The food revolutionThe future of food and the challen es e face

2 July 2019 – The food revolution

Content

8 Chapter 1 – On the cusp of revolution10 Food vs. nutritional security

11 Traditional models are unsustainable

e ple a ectin chan e

Inclusi n, the essential in e ient

14 What will we eat in 20 years?

hapte he e a t en s eshapin f un e sca city 18 Trend 1: The political economy under scarcity

en he ne a e c nsu e

22 Trend 3: Health and wellness

en i ital catch up

en Sustaina le li in

26 Waste is everyone’s business

chan in cli ate

ate access u eatest challen e

32 Chapter 3 – Tech unseats tradition a in tu ns u an an e tical

35 Scientists move into the meat business

anics ente the ainst ea

ic al ae c ul alte the l

hapte acin inn ati n at the fa ts n the un

an nes in the ai

i ata an c nnecti ity

Satellite ena le syste s

ate sa in techn l y is ital

3July 2019 – The food revolution

48 Chapter 5 – What’s new on the menu? i techn l y ene e ite f is the ne t iant leap

lant ase p tein is is uptin eat a ets

f p intin is al st he e

e s nali e nut iti n es i ital

hapte Supply chain inn ati n h ee ays the Inte net f hin s I is i pactin f supply chains

l c chain ill e luti ni e f

i plastics c ucial in the fi ht a ainst p lluti n

i ital channels eshapin f etail

hapte In estin in f inn ati n itech financin ea s ec s

64 Two breeds of startups

itech in nu e s

66 How much could it all be worth?

I n e e In est ents

67 Investment implications

The food revolution This report has been prepared by

S an S S it e lan Please see the important disclaimer at the end of the document. Past performance is not an indication of futu e etu ns he a et p ices p i e a e cl sin p ices n the especti e p incipal st c e chan e

Editor in Chiefayne n

Authorsayne n

Sun eep ant in n

Rudolf LeemannRobert Boer

Project managerSita Chavali

DesignI ntent esi n

i i neElena Vendraminetto

a it ppli eCorinne Fedier

EditorsAaron Kreuscher

u u esan Suppayyanh as un y

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Contactu s ci u s c

Learn more at: www.ubs.com/cio

July 2019 – The food revolution 5

is life ucin it has eshape u planet ay, h le ec n ies an e en national security depend on it.

et the cu ent a icultu al syste is unsustaina le icultu e al ea y acc unts f st f u ate an a hi h pe centa e f u lan use, as ell as the ul f hu an

ene ate eenh use ases ith es u ces in lin , the challen e f h t fee a in , u ani in p pulati n ith ut fu the a a in the ea th is nly intensifyin

lastin s luti n ill e ui e a su stantial ethin a ut h e as a s ciety li e an u f he t ansiti n t a ne syste ill n t e easy e e, the ne s

is that an a icultu al e luti n is at han , p e e y the techn l ies f the u th In ust ial e luti n S eepin inn ati ns, inclu in t en s in e tical fa in , a uacultu e, i tech, l c chain, an tics, a e t ansf in the ay e p uce f and will continue to do so for some time.

ut the p incipal is upti e f ce is the c nsu e In s e cultu es, tastes a e in a ay f ani al t plant ase p teins s e hi hli ht, this e is ein fun e by some of the wealthiest individuals and corporations in the world.

It s ust the e innin , ut e e e cite a ut the chan e an is upti n ahea e en isi n api e pansi n in a eas li e alte nati e eat, a in , nline f eli e y, an see t eat ent an science the a icultu e in ust y as a h le, e see the techn l y se ent u pin f a a et si e f S n t ay t a un

S n y , ep esentin a c p un annual th ate

he futu e f f helps in est s c nt i ute t p siti e chan e hile see in l n te etu ns In sta t ups an the usiness i isi ns f a f c n l e ates ali e, appealin pp tunities a e a isin as financie s f l ne i eas ai t e a e the f syste el f a es u ce intensi e ne int a fully sustaina le ne In the f ll in pa es, e analy e the cu ent syste an e a ine the s eepin chan es that lie ahea In u ie , the e is n ette ti e t in est in f an a icultu e than now.

e als h pe this ep t p pts ea e s t c nsi e the inc e i le l al e t inl e in in in f t thei inne ta le an h all f that is a ut t chan e e h pe y u en y ea in The food revolution an elc e y u fee ac

e a s,

Foreword

Min Lan Tana aefele

a aefelehief In est ent ffice l al ealth ana e ent

Min Lan Tanea f In est ent ffice


ecuti e su a y

of land use40%of greenhousegas emissions30%of freshwaterconsumption70%

Food production globally accounts for

• We need to completely transform our global food pro-duction system t eet c nsu e s e l in nee f healthy nutritious food for all, and conserve our planet’s p eci us es u ces f futu e ene ati ns p ucti n al ea y acc unts f st f u ate an a hi h pe centa e f u lan use, as ell as the ul f hu an ene ate

eenh use ases

• e e , e face the challen e f urban populations to fee , fuel, an cl the ith inc easin ly li ite es u ces available – whether it’s land, soil, water, nutrients, or labor.

ls , the api ly chan in cli ate ue t inc easin ly un i le hu an acti ity is in uencin the natu al li itations of the planet.

• he ne s is that e a e n the cusp f a new agri-cultural revolution that ill li ely eshape the ay e fa , ship, an c nsu e f han e is ein i en y five megatrends: he p litical ec n y un e sca city

the ne a e c nsu e health an ellness i ital catch up an sustaina le li in

• he e a e nu e us ne techn l ies that can e applie t aisin a icultu al p ucti ity, safe ua in en i n ental health, an satisfyin e l in c nsu e p efe ences They include biological solutions with improved environmental safety and completely new approaches that improve yield and increase natural plant resistance to diseases and pests Inn ati ns li e vertical farming, lab-grown food, and algae aquaculture, and the components of the Fourth Industrial Revolution i ata, Inte net f hin s, a tificial intelli ence a e ein inte ate th u h ut the a icultu e supply chain.

S u ce etty I a es

Source: United Nations


• ntil ecently, a icultu e la e all the in ust ies in te s of disruption. Digital penetration in the fiel as ust

in c pa e t f financials an cl se t f etail ut this fi u e is set t spi e in est ent in

a icultu e elate techn l y hit S n last yea , up f , acc in t un e i en the ast,

untappe a et an the api e e ence f p e ful techn l ies, e e pect f inn ati n t ec e a USD 700bn market by 2030 a fi ef l u p f t ay

enefit f api ly in se ents an the t pic s l n te p tential, e a ise in est s t i e sify e psu e a n unliste an liste c panies

• For investors, notable opportunities can be found in select se ents he plant ase p tein se ent, f hich e e pect a f y f S n in t S n , h l s ast p tential e als f ecast i ant

th ates f the s a t fa in , nline f elie y , see t eat ent , an see science se ents e this ti e pe i

• n thei n, a a i c p ati ns can t s l e all the issues face y the a icultu e in ust y It ill ta e a c aliti n that inclu es n n t a iti nal in est s, ent ep eneu s,

e s, an e n ents t eet the challen es ahea While the future is promising, it’s not guaranteed.

• e f a , e nee t ust the lin e in yth that techn l y is the ene y f natu al, a un ant, a a le food. Small farm owners need to adapt to the times by a ptin ne techn l ies his nee e ten s a un the world, and open access to the latest innovations is vital.

ensu e they , the enti e in ust y has t c e t ethe an a ee n ays t achie e set ecti es li e the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. y in estin f th p fits an , e can a e a tan i le, p siti e i eence in how the world farms and eats.

S u ce etty I a es

We need to bust the lin e in yth that techn l y is the enemy of natural, abundant and a a le f

Food for thought


On the cusp of revolutionhe challen e is h t fee a in

p pulati n ith ut est yin u planet

he p e icts the l al p pulati n ill s ell f less than ei ht illi n t ay t a un illi n in the ne t th ee eca es

e the ne t yea s s , u hly illi n pe ple ill ente the i le class in healthy f in a sustaina le ay f such a ast nu e f pe ple e ui es ethin in u cu ent app ach t the f supply chain an applyin techn l y intelliently t enhance hat natu e al ea y e s

s , e fi st nee t ust the lin e in yth that techn l y is the ene y f natu al, a un ant, nut iti nal an a a le f e all, techn l y is the nly ay t secu e the nut iti n nee e ith ut est yin the planet he ne s is that e a e n the cusp f a l al f e luti n ansf ati nal chan e, in u ie , is a ut t ccu ac ss e e y aspect f h the sect s an hat it p uces

nli e e luti ns f the past, this ti e pe ple n t c panies e n ents a e i in it n in est s sh ul pay cl se at

tenti n the f in ust y nee s t f cus n inte atin the ea th u hs f the u th In ust ial e luti n, n t spen

ti e e in entin the heel

Chapter 1

Source: Sarah Martin

Chapter 1 – On the cusp of revolution


ayne n, ne f the auth s f this ep t, sha es his pe s nal ie n h fa in has e l e e the yea s

I c e f a line f fa e s h t ace thei ts ac e than a centu y y si lin s an I e e aise n u fa , an

y chil en play in the fiel s an n u t act s u in sue y pa ents, an pa ents, an eat an pa ents ha e

st u le th u h ust an e ice in yea s e a centu y, u utl has al ays een ha est t ha est ut

e e n ein f ce t l uch l n e te li ate chan e is sh tenin plantin seas ns, su ectin u c ps t

untin p essu e f e atic ain cycles, an t a iti nal fa in p actices a e less e ecti e

hese i e e si le t en s e us a si ple ch ice a apt an thrive or carry on and wilt. We’ve chosen the former path. By inte atin ne techn l ies int u p ucti n p cess,

e e een a le t st yiel s an ithstan the inc easin a ia ility f the eathe et this is ust the e innin he

l is sta tin t a e up t the eality that u cu ent f syste is unsustaina le an that acti n is u ently nee e

n fa ily fa , ust alia, c s

n fa ily fa , ust alia,

Farmer with combined ha este n fiel



In ecent eca es the l i e p pulati n e pansi n an the rise of the middle class with its appetite for meat, dairy and hi h cal ie f s ha e c ntinually aise e an f c ps

netheless, this sustaine e an th hasn t spu e an a icultu al supe cycle st uctu ally hi he p ices f staples, as many predicted it would. In fact, in real terms, prices have fallen and many farmers still live at subsistence levels.

In the in ust ies, in e an has unl c e ast ealth f p uce s hy hasn t this ccu e in a icultu e It s siple – the industry has trapped itself in a vicious cycle. To meet e an , fa e s ha e eatly ste p ucti n f c ps y

a ptin p ecisi n a icultu e an enetically ifie plants Furthermore, countries in the former Soviet Union and South

Food vs. nutritional security

e ica hich e e p e i usly l st c st s u ces f lan an labor have now rapidly industrialized. The result has been an uni a ina le unty f p uce, ut ne that has c e at the e pense f s allh l in fa e s inc es an the en i n ent

f eate i p tance is the istincti n et een f secu ity an nut iti nal secu ity as the challen e is n l n e ust a ut en in hun e he esti ates that the ese n utnue the ch nically un e fe , an ne thi f all f n

is ein aste ancet issi n ep t esti ates that, l i e, unhealthy iets acc unt f up t ne in fi e premature deaths every year.

he challen e is n l n e ust a ut en in hun e

S u ce etty I a es

Inflation-adjusted grain prices remain near historical lowsIn USD/ton

Source: Bloomberg, UBS

2004 20191974 1984 1994 1999 201420091979 1989

800

600

400

0

200

Corn Wheat

Food for thought



f the l s e ainin natu al areas could be lost by 2050 due to the c n e si n f lan f a icultu al use

he cu ent a icultu al usiness el has t ta e s e esp nsi ility f the untena le state f a ai s t ay In thei uest t p uce e e e f , fa e s ha e een incenti

i e t is e a en i n ental c sts, lea in t a epleti n f i i e sity, p llinat s e ees an s il health, as ell

the s cial c sts ass ciate ith sca ce es u ces li e ate an ene y cc in t the , f p ucti n a un the

l cu ently acc unts f f lan use, f eenh use as e issi ns an f f esh ate

consumption.

e e , the s an icultu e ani ati n elie es ne ua te f the l s fa lan has een ate as

Traditional models are unsustainable

S u ce etty I a es

Food for thought

hi hly e a e an an the is e ately sli htly e a e stu y y the c n ics f c syste s an i ie sity esti ates that f ea th s e ainin natu al a eas

c ul e l st y ue t the c n e si n f lan f a icultural use.

pan in f p ucti n fu the ca ies ith it p tentially e astatin c sts Si ply put, e a e nea in the l s nat

u al li its n , acc in t the , the a icultu al lan a ea ill e ain elati ely unchan e in the c in eca es So yield improvements from the same amount of land will need to account for the majority of the productivity increase.

of land use40%

of greenhouse gas emissions30%of freshwaterconsumption70%

Food production globally currently accounts for...




e ple a ectin chan e

a eness is sp ea in a ut the a e i pact the cu ent aricultural production model has had on the planet and society. e ple a e n e an in a ne ay f p ucin f an

a e f cin the in ust y s han th u h thei spen in ecisi ns n fa e s a e the fi st t a ee that the ules f the

a e nee t chan e e all, they ha e the st t ain f e a pin the ec n ics f a icultu e an the st t lose if the current setup endures.

ntil n , ultinati nal c p ati ns ha e e e te t e enus in uence n hat pe ple eat an h staple f an

f in e ients a e p cu e an t ansp te hey ha e c nt lle the inf ati n an the usiness el ut shi in e an patte ns a e is uptin the in ust y an f cin i

food companies and traders to scramble to stay ahead of consu e s panies a e n facin the sa e ch ice as fae s a apt is ein le ehin

the p pula ity an st c a et success f ey n eat, the e ie u e a e , th u h the ete ic ise in e an f anic p uce t the sp ea f e an an luten f ee iets, interest in where our food comes from has never been

eate n the e a ple f c nsu e le chan e is the shi a ay f f s ith a e su a Su a ta es a e ec in

e f e uent the le ie a ta n in s c ntainin a s f su a e pe l in , f instance an

e an f it has een fallin stea ily in ecent yea s

e ple a e n e an in a ne ay f p ucin f an a e f cin the

in ust y s han th u h thei spen in decisions.

Food for thought

S u ce etty I a es



In est s, i p uce s, an p essi e fa e s a e ettin n a y a ptin u th e luti n techn l y li e

c pute isi n, tics, ata science, an achine lea nin , hich is a in the c itical leap f the la s t fiel s ut

we’re a far cry from its use by ordinary farmers, which raises the uesti n hat ill it ta e f s allh l e s t e ace it St en thenin inn ati n upta e in e e in a ets is essential ecause uch f the th in supply an e an ill c e f these e i ns Success ill e ui e e cellent i ital e ecuti n as any f these a ets a e c in f a e in the i ital a e e e , c panies ill nee t in thei ne

est, st a ance e uip ent an thin in n t last ene a

Inclusi n, the essential in e ient

ti n, l e uality p ucts int e el pin a ets, hile in est s an c nsu e s ali e can in uence success failu e via their wallets.

It s e i ent t us that access t nut iti us f ill e a efinin issue f the st centu y he , f ne, is ta in this challen e se i usly Its Sustaina le e el p ent als S s put forward not only a vision for sustainable production and c nsu pti n ut f en in p e ty an hun e as ell

Access to nutritious food ill e a efinin issue

of the 21st century.

Food for thought

S u ce etty I a es



What will we eat in 20 years?

he e e e fe e ans yea s a the e a e any illi ns t ay, an thei nu e is isin l i e c eat as an al st c ical fa yea s a it s n lau hin atte tay, i en the in ust y s ete ic ise in ecent yea s e ple ill al ays nee sustenance, ut tastes an iets a e chan in y , it s li ely that these t en s ill c ntinue t e el p

an ne nes ill inate the culina y eit eist

In ee , the f e eat an the e e a es e in t ay ay not be the same as those tomorrow. The World Economic Fou en isi ns a pe i f api inn ati n in u a ility

t fuse physical, i ital an i l ical techn l ies e haps in e ll uy eat ase n la at y f i in instea f

country. The potential to disrupt the foundations of our everyday lives is real, and the food sector will not be immune to it.

The food industry needs to reshape itself to meet the new realities s inc ease a a eness f cli ate chan e has i en a critical mass of conscious consumers to rally for better, environ

entally f ien lie alte nati es t f ssil fuels, the sa e thin needs to happen in food production. All of us will have to em

ace chan e an a i uil in alls a un t a iti nal seents an techni ues t p ese e the status u

ill the natu e f f p ucti n chan e hat ne techni ues ill e use an hat ne p ucts n

ill supply chains a apt hese uesti ns a e the ain the es e e pl e in this ep t hat e n is that the tech

n l y nee e t e luti ni e the f syste al ea y e ists he t u le is that it s ein e el pe in sil s ith li ite in

te ati n

he p i a y challen e f any techn l y is t appeal t en users – in this case, producers, processors, and consumers.

nly hen i ital s luti ns p e t e e p actical, efficient, an a a le than anythin else n the a et ill ariculture enjoy its smartphone moment.

S u ce ettyi a es

S u ce hnny Source: Ailine Liefeld



he success f a u in in ust y is n t the nly thin at sta e here. So is the very health of the planet. The food industry nee s t thin nea an l n te at nce, an a pt a p actical idealism. As noted broadcaster, writer, and naturalist Sir

a i tten u h has aptly sai e ha e t ec ni e that e e y eath f ai e ta e, e e y uthful f f e ta e, c es f the natu al l

e e in the ep t y ie y ecappin the en u in e at en s as they elate t f e then e pl e s e f the e e in inn ati ns that sh ul e n in est s a a e hi hli ht ne f s f f such as al ae an p inte , cultu e , an plant ase p ucts n e e a ine the i e ent

ays these p ucts ill e n, p cesse , an ist i ute

e ha e t ec ni e that e e y eath f ai e ta e, every mouthful of food we ta e, c es f the natu al

l a i tten u h te a caste ,

writer, and naturalist

Source: Ailine Liefeld


Chapter 2

he e a t en s eshapin f

under scarcity han e is happenin ac ss the a , p incipally

led by consumers.

S u ce etty I a es


e a t en s a e a istinct up f p e ful s cial, e aphic, en i n

ental an techn l ical f ces f chan e that a e eshapin u l

e elie e the f ll in fi e t en s ill shape the f in ust y in the c in decades.

Trend 1: The political economy under scarcity

Trend 2: The new-age consumer

Trend 3: Health and wellness

Trend 4: Digital catch-up

Trend 5: Sustainable living

hapte he e a t en s eshapin f un e sca city


Trend 1: The political economy under scarcity

u e aphic futu e is ell n n a ut illi n e t a pe ple ill li e n the planet y , an l al e an f f is e pecte t inc ease u hly in the pe i

, n the shi s f est t east an n th t s uth that ill ccu , f e an is ne pulati n th in Asia and Africa will outstrip that of the world as a whole. Africa alone will add another 1 billion people by 2050, while

sia ill ec e astly e u an y , sia ill ha e nea ly half f the l s u an esi ents The UN forecasts 2.5 billion more city dwellers in it and in Africa by midcentury.

s c unt ies u ani e, f p ucti n chan es, an the ecisions about how to allocate resources between urban and rual a eas ec e e c ple an p litical ate sca city,

f e a ple, ill ec e a ey issue as nati nal inte ests ie e petiti n f lan ill als a ect t a e in f an alue chains, an p inf ast uctu e in e el pin c unt ies eans estic f p ucti n ill st u le t eet in

creased domestic demand, while middle class urban residents’ p efe ences c ul shi t a s i p te f if it is cheape an f hi he uality

hile f secu ity has en een efine n the un s f self sufficiency, this cha acte i ati n is chan in t inclu e esilience, i e sity, an a a ility In sia, as a case in p int, the ise in e an f f has a e it ifficult f st c unt ies, pa ticula ly hina, t e ain self sufficient hat s

e, eate es u ce sca city au ents the nee f a i tual e chan e f ate an lan the pen an efficient l al f supply chains ith isin t a e th eats, alliances an e

i nal ase t a e a ee ents a e ainin in i p tance this e chan e ec es e c ple as es the is s f a ismatch between supply and demand.

a i a s a e p is n t the t a e epen ent f sect ut as tensions have risen between the US and several countries/e i ns, inclu in hina, ana a, e ic an the , tit f

tat ta i s ha e ec e e p e alent, alte in l n estalishe a icultu al t a e utes e a ple, hina has tu ne t a il f s y eans an p i p ts an t ust alia f beef and cotton, all previously sourced from the US. Predicta ly, these is upti ns e e the enefits f l al t a e in te s f f access, nut iti n an efficiency

While the outcomes of the current dispute remain uncertain, hat s clea is that e i nal e n ents ill pay eate at

tenti n t nati nal f secu ity st ate ies an these p licies ill efine f p ucti n an supply chain t en s in the ne t eca e s he si e an c p siti n f st ate ic f inent ies a e ne isi le ay this ill anifest itself f in

stance, hina s st ate ic c n ese es a e ep te t c e more than seven months of consumption. Also, local food proucti n le els an su si ies, an lan ac uisiti n st ate ies a e the s f e a ple, t ansacti n ata su ests that hina an

Sau i a ia ha e a e a a icultu al lan ac uisiti ns in c unt ies li e ust alia in ecent yea s

Part of the US’s trade dispute with China is intellectual prope ty the y e tensi n, a ea n f syste s t sha e techn l y an a lac f t aine pe ple t use the inf ati n it athe s a e a c nst aints t f secu ity, pa ticula ly in e el pin c unt ies he nee f inte nati nal c pe ati n

t sha e inf ati n, inn ati n an techn l y is e elevant in food production today than in any other industry.

54% of the world’s population now lives in cities% of the population living in urban areas


1990

2014

2050

NorthAmerica

LatinAmerica

Europe Oceania Asia Africa Worldwide

75%

81%

87%

71%

80%

86%

70%

73%

82%

71%

71%

74%

32%

48%

64%

31%

40%

56%

43%

54%

66%

No.1: No poverty. ut th ee ua te s f the e t e e p li e in u al a eas, ith st epen ent n a icultu e f

their livelihoods and food security. An inclusi e a icultu al sect can c eate

s an eli inate hun e in u al a eas No. 16: Peace, Justice and strong insti-tutions. secu ity an a healthy a icultural sector can play a critical role in p e entin c n ict an ist ess i ati n, an in uil in peace



a e aphic shi s

Source: United Nations, June 2019


Source: United Nations, Worldometers, June 2019

extra people are expected2 billion

1.05 billion+60%

World population today

7.7 billion

increase in global food demand

more people are expected in Africa

By 2050

By 2050

he p e icts the l al p pulati n will swell from less than 8 billion today to a un illi n in the ne t th ee

eca es e the ne t yea s s , u hly illi n pe ple ill ente the

middle class.

Food for thought



Trend 2: he ne a e c nsu e

hat ill i centu y c nsu e s l li e hat ill they uy an h ill they c nsu e it he ans e s t these uesti ns

ill e shape y th ee e aphic ups ne sian uanites, ayin en e s an illennials e all, c nsu e s,

f he e, ill e a hype c nnecte up f in i i uals h instantly access the latest s luti ns ia a i us i ital platforms. Overall, consumers want to feel closer to their food,

hile u ani ati n ta es the fa the a ay techn l y an inn ati n ill e inc easin ly calle up n t i e this ap

If all es s thly, u ani ati n, inc e th an eate f a aila ility th u h t a e sh ul see a a enin ut f iets, pa ticula ly in hi he alue cate ies f f ut this is

n t ith ut c nse uences f e a ple, as c nsu e s e t a e ene y ense iets, cu ent es u ces ill ec e inc easin ly st etche asically, pe ple eat e ce eals in i ectly th u h eat

e ac n le e ne si e esn t fit all as the t en t a s inc ease p tein c nsu pti n anifests itself i e ently ase n eli i us elief, cust , an the p esence f a

st n e eta ian cultu e, as in In ia ut, as a ene al ule, li e este n c unt ies, sia ill pi t fu the t a the uble burden of undernutrition and obesity in the future without a e uate ci cuit ea e s

Per capita meat consumptionIn kg/year

GNI Per Capita (current USD at market exchange rates)

Source: FAO, World Bank and Nomura Global Economics

60,000 80,0000 20,000 40,000

160

140

120

80

0

40

100

20

60

India

ChinaJapan

UK

Hong Kong

US Australia

DenmarkBrazil

France

S u ce etty I a es



u the e, these e aphic shi s als is upt h f ill e c nsu e in the futu e esi nin f p ucts t ap

peal t i e ent a e ups ill e half the attle f t a iti nal f c panies hethe it is a i ital platf ai e at p i in illennials i e iate access t p ucts an se ices li e f eli e y apps s luti ns esi ne t c ple ent the lifestyles f a in a y e s li e ita in supple ents an ellness se ices , each niche ill nee ca eful plannin an e ecuti n

illennial c nsu e s a e a ptin i ital s luti ns that pvide instant access to products and services they want without ein c nfine t physically nea y ch ices, such as apps

li e u u , eli e an e ats cc in t ecent c insey esea ch, unli e thei p e ecess s, c nsu e s un e

the a e f ten t i e fun a entally in ays that a e ass an s an t a iti nal channels ill suite t the hey

ten t p efe ne an s, especially in f p ucts the isin p pula ity f ey n eat an I p ssi le u e is ne e a ple In fact, acc in t , illennials

a e al st f u ti es li elie than a y e s t a i uyin p ucts f ultinati nal f c panies

s pa t f this shi , this up inc easin ly sh s a p efe ence t a in ful eatin that is, ch sin an s an f s that c e f sustaina le s u ces an a c nsci us en a ement with the food industry, and how food is produced and the ay it is c nsu e cc in t el itte, y illennials ill a e up f all c nsu e s, in uencin a ut USD 40bn in annual sales.

in e aphic p pulati ns a e als a c nsi e ati n f the supply si e an n t ust in e el pe nati ns ani ati n an a in ha e se i us i plicati ns f the c p siti n f the u al la f ce, patte ns in a icultu al p ucti n,

the s cial c hesi n f u al c unities, an p pe ty i hts f the illi n fa s in the l , nly a e in hi h

inc e c unt ies hile a e in l e inc e nes ,

Online food delivery demand driven by young consumers

Mean ordering frequency per week

Source: UBS Evidence Lab, as of 2018

Age

18–24

25–34

35–44

45–54

55+

1.02

1.22

0.81

0.46

0.23

cc in t el itte, y illennials ill a e

up f all c nsu e s, in uencin a ut S n in annual sales.

No.12: Responsible consumption and production. aste ini i ati n is a l al challen e he esti ates illi n t ns f f is l st aste annually, e uatin t u hly ne thi f l al f p ucti n

Food for thought

S u ce etty I a es



Trend 3: Health and wellness

cc in t , the health an ellness in ust y is alea y alue at al st S n, app i ately f

the l al pac a e f a et yea s, c nsu e s ha e said that they wanted to eat healthier foods and live healthier lifestyles, ut thei eha i i n t chan e until n he

l ealth ani ati n esti ates that a ut f p e atu e hea t isease cases, st es an inci ences f

type ia etes, as ell as f cance s, c ul e a i e if a is fact s f n n c unica le iseases, such as

unhealthy diets, were eliminated.

he c sts ass ciate ith p iets hi h in fatty p cesse f s a e en us the l esity e e ati n estimates this to be USD 850bn in direct healthcare costs al ne ne in fi e a ults an ne in si chil en in c unt ies a e ese If acti n is n t ta en s n, the e ical ill f t eatin the health c plicati ns ass ciate ith esity is epecte t cli t S t n y , e enti n is the f cus as c nsu e s e efine hat a healthy iet

eans e natu al, een, anic p ucts an f that is f ee f su a , luten, pestici es, an the a iti es e

e , the e an f hi hly pe s nali e health an the eain f fitness t ac e s etc is e pe iencin api a pti n In fact, eate ata int the i pacts f ne s eatin ha its esus nut iti n e ui e ents a e einf cin the t en s in pe s nalized nutrition.

i e ise, p licy a e s a e inc easin ly a a e f this st n lin et een iet al n ith the en i n ent an health

l ea y, e hea f p licy a e s e ie in ieta y ui elines an the inte nati nal e ical c unity, hich is uil in a case f e ucin the a unt f e eat eaten, an p tin the inc ease f plant ase p tein in s ciety s iet that specifically a esses pe s nal health c nce ns such as fa e that c ntains anti in a at y p pe ties nut ientense in e ients that supp t i une functi ns, an th se

that i p e e all ut health is als s y c etin in p pula ity eate i e sificati n f iet is an the i e f ette health, acc in t the his is the ain a u ent f p uce s h a e e i in the culti ati n f these t a iti nal ut en f tten f c ps s an e a ple, i eless See s

sells nly hei l a ieties f ains an le u es that a e tati n c ps f eplenishin s il

he l ealth ani ati n esti ates that a ut f p e atu e hea t isease cases, st es an inci ences f type ia etes, as ell as f cance s, c ul e a i e if

a is fact s f n n c unicable diseases, such as unhealthy diets, were eliminated.

No.3: Good health and wellbeing. health sta ts ith nut iti n ancet issi n ep t esti ates that

worldwide unhealthy diets account for up to ne in fi e p e atu e eaths e e y yea

No.2: Zero Hunger. Food production will need to increase by an esti ate y t eet the nee s f almost 10 billion people on the planet.

l ea y, u hly illi n pe ple a e chronically undernourished.

Food for thought

S u ce nita ent an e



Can better diets help the environment?It epen s lte in iets t e e plant ase e itaian an its elate health enefits a e efinitely a ette i el ical fit in te s f sustaina ility a lie this yea , the Lancet Commission released a report on the impact that diet can have on the environment. Based on an analysis of scientific e i ence, it c nclu e that c nsu e s nee t t ansiti n thei iet f ani al t plant ase p teins t help iti ate the inc ease in eenh use ases any c nsu e s uy

anic f s citin eas ns elate t health an the eth as ette f the en i n ent an i i e sity e all anic f sales in the S tell the st y, ha in u le in the last eca e, acc in t the ati nal e aphic

e e , a pa a a ises hile anic f is seen as the source of better health, a comprehensive review of 237 studies c n ucte y Stanf ni e sity f un n health enefits

e c n enti nally n f s Sti in the a i us c petin inte est ups h e c n ictin clai s a ut anic an n n anic f , an it s n t su p isin that any c nsu e s a e le feelin c nfuse an ist ustful

in in ays t fa e sustaina ly t p i e safe, a unant an nut iti us f s t a api ly in l is a chal

len e that nly science can s l e e nee t e ucate ups, particularly millennials. Scientists need to reassure the public that they ha e n thin t fea a ut t ay s a icultu al techn l ies, an that i n in these ne p ucts c es

ith c sts t thei ell ein an t the en i n ent s an e a ple, the ne t ene ati n f see techn l y

is focused on health and functional foods.

ust alia s nati nal science a ency SI has e el pe can la that p uces hi h uality e eta le il ich in

e a c sahe aen ic aci , fish ein the cl sest alte nati e i in this techn l y p tentially e uces the inta e f e a an aintains u eliance n fish as a s u ce hen acc in t the f the l s fishe ies a e e fishe

Consumers need to transition their iet f ani al t plant ase

p teins t help iti ate the inc ease in eenh use ases

Food for thought

Source: Nordwood Themes, Unsplash



Trend 4: i ital catch up

e elie e the f an a icultu e in ust y is n the cusp f i ital e luti n s ecently as f p ucti n an e ea last in te s f a ptin i ital techn l ies f e a

ple, i ital penet ati n in a icultu e is , e sus f financials an cl se t f etail ut t ay it s a in utsi e inte est f in est s h see a clea an p essin

nee t in fa in int the futu e In est ent in a icultu e elate techn l y eache S n last yea , up f en lu ina ies li e e e s an ill ates a e ettin in n the a e, in estin an pushin sustaina ility

solutions without compromise.

It s een f e uently se e that i p e ents in c putin p e ha e la ely ept pace ith e s a , the se ati n that says the nu e f t ansist s n a chip u hly ules yea ly as c sts hal e he plu etin c st f a ance

techn l ies eans that the l a un us is ec in e c nnecte cc in t the , the e e e ust

illi n e ices lin e t the Inte net in t ay the e a e 8 billion. By 2030, the estimate is for 1 trillion. In fact, no s ne ha the s calle hi latf techn l ies ile, cl u , i ata analytics, an s cial techn l ies ec e pa t of our landscape than the innovation accelerators, or Fourth latf i e , achine lea nin , I , tics, p intin ,

ne t ene ati n secu ity an pe s nali ati n a i e

In the api ly scalin i ital a etplace, they ha e ec e the ey th i e s f any c panies ech has ec e s u i uit us in u li es that it has e efine the eanin f e e y ay n lish l u n efe s t c putin eli e e th u h a net ta let efe s t a s a t e ice use t

se an st ea efe s t playin i e s n the inte net Nevertheless, the speed of innovation led the WEF to declare 2016 the start of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, one based n the c ncept f e in f physical, i ital, an i l ical

techn l ies in f p ucti n, a in hat s e, it s ec e clea that the i pact f i use inn ati n

an the i e applicati n f i ital techn l ies a e e fundamental and transformational in nature than we could have en isa e he alue f ata s in ele ance as it ec es easier to create and collect data.

hat s nee e n is a platf that unifies these ispa ate techn l ies int s ethin intuiti e an a a le f a ea e fa e s hey ill als ha e t secu e the talent necessa y t unl c in the insi hts hi en in thei ata n le e intensi e f p ucti n t ls li e en i n ent sens s, ile c putin , satellites an i a in , nes, i eless c unicati n, an e en enetics ill e ui e that ata sa y talent e att acte t the sect ls , la sa in techni ues, li e

tics, i ht e uce e pl y ent f t a iti nal s, a in it c ucial that the in ust y has a a e plan f c pin ith the si e e ects f aut ati n

No.9: Industry, innovation and infrastruc-ture. FAO promotes sustainable development in u al c unities th u h in est ents in t ansp tati n, st a e, i i ati n an c

unicati n techn l ies

As recently as 2018 food production an e ea last in te s f a ptin i ital techn l ies i ital penet ati n

in a icultu e is , e sus f financials an cl se t f etail

Food for thought

S u ce etty I a es



Trend 5: Sustaina le li in

Se e al c n e in t en s ha e e f an a icultu e up the sustaina le li in a en a e n ents all e the l a e inc easin ly payin e attenti n t the nite ati ns

Sustaina le e el p ent als S s an the a is liate han e acc his clea ly in icates an e e in

a a eness that s cieties nee t t ansiti n t a l ca n ec n y, hich ill e ui e all in i i uals t ec e e efficient in thei ene y an ate use, as ell as aste less

e ene ati e a icultu e, f e a ple, has the p tential t seueste ca n i i e f the at sphe e an st e it his

not only halts the industry’s impact on the environment but als e e ses it s a la e p pulati n ith e e in ealth fuels the demand for consumer products, nature’s limits will ec e e e e appa ent e all, the l al c unity

nee s t f cus n in c llecti ely t a s a ci cula ec nomy with food at its center.

An inclusive food production system that doesn’t leave behind small landholders, women and youth, minimizes its environ

ental f tp int, c nse es natu al e s u ces, an st en thens c unities a ainst supply si e sh c s is an the al

e ha e n u t the i pact f a chan in cli ate an the c nst aints f es u ce sca city ill si nificantly in uence p licy a e s ecisi ns in the c in yea s as inha itants p essure city municipalities to clean the air, and food producers to e uce e issi ns, e uil i i e sity, an e uce aste i e ise, i pact athe than p fit ill ec e a c e alue f

f c panies any inn ati e c panies a e pl ttin ne techn l ies t i p e the efficiency f f p ucti n

cc in t the , p fit ith pu p se is set t ec e the n nile e is a e a ple f h a c n l eates i ht s n e e el pin a pu p se le st ate y f thei c e usiness Its ut in , aul l an, has een a n the fi st usiness lea e s t i e a ne , e p f un

eanin t the sustaina ility e e a s it n t ust as the i ht thin t , ut an essential c p nent f th

e a e seein any c panies al ea y in ey n c pliance cc in t , nea ly f the l s i est c panies a e ep tin n thei sustaina ility pe f ance usin et ics esta lishe y the l al ep tin Initiati e

I , esta lishe in ct e lth u h e n ents en a e ent has een une en, they a e see in p licy inteenti ns t een the f in ust y as ell

et s l e cl sely n at the eat challen es f aste, a chan in cli ate an ate access in the c in pa es

No.17: Partnerships for the goals. It will ta e a c aliti n that inclu es t a iti nal an n n t a iti nal in est s, ent ep eneu s,

e s, an e n ents t eet the challen es ahea cc in t the usiness an Sustaina le e el p ent aliti n , these opportunities could be worth USD 2.3 trillion annually by 2030.

No.15: Life on the land. icultu e is the st si nificant i e s f ef estati n u hly an i i e sity l ss cc

in t the , f all fa lan is al ea y e a e , ith i e ent aspects f f pucti n c nt i utin t this p cess

No.14: Life below water. Fish accounts for f the l s inta e f ani al p tein

cc in t the , e f the l s fish st c s a e cu ently ein e

fishe

No.13: Climate Action. Food production th eatens t e the eatest casualty f cli

ate chan e, ut sustaina le a icultu e can be part of the solution. Food production acc unts f a un f hu an eneate eenh use ases

No.11: Sustainable cities and communi-ties. y , t thi s f the l al p pulation will be urban dwellers, and by 2030 Asia will have nearly half of the world’s urban esi ents api u an th is placin en

mous demands on food systems.

Source: C.J. Wadhwa



Waste is everyone’s business

aste ini i ati n is a l al challen e he esti ates illi n t ns f f is l st aste annually, e uatin t

u hly ne thi f l al f p ucti n Such e t e e aste c es at a si nificant financial an en i n ental c st

is aste in al st e e y cate y f f uit an e eta les, f ce eal p ucts, f fish an seaf ,

f ai y an f eat he l es u ces Institute esti ates this a unt acc unts f f e issi ns If

aste e e a c unt y, it ul e the thi la est e itter. Food waste occurs at every step in the value chain – but it is st p n unce at the e innin p ucti n an at the en c nsu pti n

In e el pin c unt ies, the p le is la ely a functi n f the production and transportation of food from farms. In developed countries, it is most prevalent in the consumption phase, a n th etaile s an c nsu e s e a ple, China produces up to 18m tonnes of food waste every year – en u h t fee up t illi n pe ple an th an esti

ate S n S,

In f p ucti n, this t anslates n t nly int eate use f ene a le ene y n fa s, hi h tech ani al fee , an p

cessin facilities ut als inclu es s il health ana e ent ist ically, inn ati ns li e p ecisi n a icultu e e e e el

oped by businesses purely for commercial reasons. But this ti e e can e pect t see si nificant th in the scale an impact of social enterprises on all aspects of daily life, fueled y ent ep eneu s ith a esi e t n t ust a e ney ut t

als a e a i e ence y in estin f

Five key drivers of food waste

Source: Boston Consulting Group (2018)

1Poor visibility over the extent of the problem, and a lack of consumer awareness.

2Storage, distribution and processing losses.

4Supply chain inefficiencies, including a lack of coordination, and waste in retail and among households.

5Regulation and industry policy isn’t designed for tackling current challenges in the food system.

3Insufficient supply and demand data.

45%Fruits and vegetables

30%Cereal products

20%Dairy products

35%Fish and seafood

20%Meat


Waste is everybody’s business% of food wasted across the value chain

f f uits an e eta les are wasted in production and consumption

S u ce i lai he nichen , nsplash


July 2019 – The food revolution 27Source: United Nations

of global food production is lost or wasted annuallyAnnual global food production

1/3 or 1.3 billion tons




Interview with Marc Zornes

Marc ZornesMarc Zornes is a former McKinsey Ena e ent ana e he e he as a

leader in the consumer & sustainability practices.

He founded Winnow to help the hospitality sect cut f aste usin techn l y inn uil s tech t help chefs un thei itchens e efficiently f cusin n helpin the un e stan and prevent food waste.

Since launch fi e yea s a , inn has been deployed in 40 countries and has saved its customers USD 33m by reducin f aste he c pany clai s that itchens usin inn typically see food waste cut in half within 12 months, an chefs usin inn a e c llecti ely sa in eals a yea f the in

a c is ne f S s l al isi na ies isit u s c l al isi na ies t n e

How much of a problem is food waste?he e is si nificant p ess in pushin ene y t a s a l e ca n futu e ,

the f syste is c in int f cus as an a ea he e s ciety nee s t a e si nificant chan e In fact, ne thi f all hu an cause eenh use as e issi ns c e from our food system. One major contributor of the environmental impact of the food system is food loss and food waste.

l ss an f aste is a a ec n ic an en i n ental issue l ally, f all f is aste f fa t f an ec n ic pe specti e, this

aste is a ate ial l al ec n ic c st ecently cite that S t illi n a yea is aste an ill t S t illi n a yea y put that int pespecti e, that s f l al an en i n ental pe specti e, a essin food waste is a one of the top issues as well. If food waste were a country, it would e the thi la est e itte f eenh use asses a e the S an hina ect a n, a l al stu y f acti ns e can ta e t e uce cli ate chan e, hi h

li hte f aste as ne f its t p th ee pp tunities

In the e el pe l , f aste ccu s stly at fa s, h es, an c nsu e facin usinesses In the S, e e esti ates that these th ee a eas c nt i ute t

f all f aste he e a e any usinesses set t a ess f aste across each of these points in the supply chain.

Where is progress most evident? Setbacks?e n ents a e e innin t a e a ate ial e t in e ucin f aste an

f l ss he put hal in f aste int the Sustaina le e el p ent als f s a esult, the , S, an any ani ati ns ha e put ta ets t hal e their food waste by 2030 or even earlier.

In ance, f instance, it is ille al f supe a ets t th a ay e i le f In the S, e is uil in acti n plans ac ss ey p ints in the f supply chain t euce f aste he s inist y f li ate han e has set an a iti n t p eent eals a yea f ein aste in the h spitality in ust y y

hese e ents a e e citin et, they a e nly the e innin f the chan e e nee t see It s clea that e ucin f aste is n t a si ple as hat sai , ith an pp tunity S t illi n p a t a e , the e is a in a unt f capital

p u in in t fin an scale s luti ns that a e in

What emerging technologies look most impactful for reducing food waste?he e a e any e citin techn l ies that a e ut the e t e uce f aste he

nu e f c panies ai e at e ucin f aste has n f a han ful t th usan s l ally in less than a eca e st c panies fall int th ee ain cate

ies aste p e enti n, e ist i uti n, an al i ati n

aste p e enti n has the i est ec n ic enefits as it sa es the c st f the f ein aste y usiness, inn , is f cuse n p e entin the S n f f aste in the h spitality in ust y inn sa es clients t f thei

f spen he e it applie e ith a l al f pe at s inclu in

his inte ie c ntains ie s hich i inate f utsi e hief In est ent ffice l al ealth ana e ent I It is the ef e p ssi le that the inte ie es n t fully eflect

the ie s f I



I , pass up, cc tels, I , an a ni al uise ines peel Sciences is an the e citin e a ple peel Sciences p uces plant e i e p tecti n n the su face f f esh p uce t e ten its shelf life

e ist i uti n f cuse usinesses a e e innin t scale as ell t an a a a e c eatin sec n a y a ets t sell f that ul the ise e

aste l u is in a si ila p a f the etail sect li is an app that all s pee t pee f sha in ith a si ila an le ut ith e e phasis on the home.

al i ati n is the techn l y t c eate e alue ut f f that ul e aste easu e p ese es f that ul e aste t c eate h le f inputs

int the c nsu e sect ast le is a ee a e f ea that ul e wasted.

he a e c panies a e n t an e clusi e list e e e , it s a S t n p le that is in It s clea that the e ill e a assi e set f s luti ns ut the e nee e t captu e the pp tunity f ini isin f aste a un the l

What has AI taught you about the problem, and solutions?n e , ne f the l al th u ht lea e s n I, esc i es eep lea nin an a

tificial intelli ence as the ne elect icity I is a p e ful t l t all us t thin s that ha e p e i usly n t een p ssi le e apply eep lea nin in the fiel f c pute isi n u latest techn l y, inn isi n, uses a ca e a t i entify the f that s ein aste , a in it sea less in c llectin f aste ata his inn ati n a atically e uces the a pti n c sts f f aste nit in an p eenti n It als inc eases the p tential this techn l y can ha e n i pactin the

problem.

e ha e plans t ell ey n the i entificati n f f aste ia I e e epl in h e can apply I t analy e c nsu pti n patte ns in itchens an ip e e all h the itchen pe ates hile any c panies a e l in at

tic aut ati n in the itchen, e f cus n h I can i p e the efficiency f the itchen sta e ai t i e assi e pe f ance i p e ents in an en i n

ent hich ha e hist ically applie little i ital inn ati n

How can investors benefit from better food waste prevention and efficiency?If y u n pe ate an asset that has a f se ice e , the enefits f f waste prevention will be direct to the bottom line. In addition, as you reduce waste, y u als a e ette ana in p ucti n elati e t cust e e an his has the enefit f i p in cust e satisfacti n

If y u ha e an appetite t in est in e e in techn l y t s l e this p le , then the e is a a spect u f pp tunities ut the e he e ill e ultiple illi n

lla c panies uilt f cuse n a essin the issue f f aste he ec n ic case is clea , st pp tunities ha e a pay ac f less than yea th e n

ents an n n e n ent a e c eatin a iti nal tail in s t these a ets he uesti n ill e h uic ly la e c p ates ill a pt the techn l y hen, h f the th usan s f ani ati ns t yin t s l e the p le ill each the

scale t i e eanin ful chan e


the ie s f I



chan in cli ate

han in eathe c n iti ns ill ha e a a i pact an c nstitute the chief challen e the f supply chain nee s t a ess hei e ect n s il an p uce uality an the secn e e ects n the natu al syste a e li ely t e c nsi

erable.

e c p ati ns a e placin a eate e phasis n en i nental c nsi e ati ns hen settin thei st ate ies elate t

f p ucti n an the i e supply chain his hei htene i p tance is e ecte in the api a pti n f ep tin n en i n ental, s cial, an e nance S atte s, he e ta ets a e ein set, pu lishe , an nit e t the instituti nal le el en i n ental p actice is f in an inc easin ly inte al pa t f fa p licy e a ple, fa su si ies in the a e ein a e c n iti nal e an e n a icultu al p actice

he i pact f l al a in n f p ucti n is the suect f uch esea ch an e ate ssessin the ti in an i pact f l al a in n a icultu e is still e y uch a e el pin fiel u ent c n enti nal is acc in t

the is that c p p ucti n ill e t a the ea th s p les an the eatest ne ati e i pacts f cli ate chan e

ill e felt y c unt ies an p pulati ns cl sest t the e uat he a ilian state f at ss , ne f the st i p tant

a icultu al e i ns l i e, i ht face cli ate elate chan es that e uce s y ean an c n utput y t

y , acc in t the he i est S an aste n ust alia t the l ally i p tant e i ns i ht als e pe ience a su stantial ecline in a icultu al utput ue t e t e e heat n te the S an a il a e the i est puce s f s y eans, an f these s y eans es t fee

in ani als

a a ically, the e a e yiel enefits in the sh t un t hi he c ncent ati ns f an p tential p ucti ity ains at hi he latitudes – mainly in China, Canada, and Russia, certain areas of

hich a e e pecte t e pe ience l n e an a e in seas ns, alth u h s ils ten t e p e the e

S u ce etty I a es



Water access our eatest challen e

isin l al te pe atu es c ul inc ease ate sca city n , as discussed earlier, scientists warn that the climate may become less predictable, which could strain the water supply and

sen the ate uality in a uife s an st ea s, c p unin the challen e

Water use has tripled since the 1950s and demand continues t s a y , the l ay face a ate supply e

an ap his c ul u le t if aste ate isn t t eate p pe ly l an esea ch sh s cli ate i en chan es in ate un ill ha e une en e ects a un the

l , ith th se a eas al ea y su e in f ate sh ta es li ely t e hit ha est e uce un inc eases e an f

un ate , especially f i i ati n, hich is esp nsi le f f l al un ate ith a als ,

ess tal e a ut, ut e ually as e astatin , is the ecline in ate ta les an a uife ate uality s a c nse uence,

un ate salinity ill ise ue t hi he te pe atu es an isin sea le els his c ul cul inate n t ust in e uce sup

ply an l e yiel s ut p e f uality an c nsu e health he least e el pe c unt ies, he e ate c nsu in acti ities such as a icultu e an ene y ene ati n a e pa ticula ly i p tant, a e li ely t su e st

In ee , the lac f cla ity a ut h the cli ate is e l in is inc easin unce tainty a ut h t ana e ate , a in t the is that c unt ies in est ents i ht p e insufficient an ine ecti e

By 2030, the world may face a ate supply

e an ap

Climate-driven drops in runoff* hit least-developed, agriculture-dependent countries mostProjected fall in millimeter per square meter by 2050

Source: World Bank (High and dry: Climate change, water, and the economy) as of 2016

* Definition of runoffPart of water cycle that flows over land as surface water instead of being absorbed into groundwater. This is a key and easily accessible water source for man, animals and particularly the agricultural sector in the least-developed regions worldwide

Below –200

–200 to –100

–100 to 0

0 to 100

100 to 200

Above 200

No data

Food for thought

S u ce etty I a es

Chapter 3 – Tech unseats tradition


Chapter 3

Tech unseats tradition

ustin the yth that techn l y is the enemy of natural, abundant and a a le f

Shippin c ntaine ith installe a uap nics syste in ech epu licS u ce etty I a es



Urban / Vertical farming

Organic food becomes mainstream

Lab-grownfood

Algae acquaculture a game center

In c nt ast t ste e typical i a es f este n fa in , st fa s l ally a e s all, ith less than ne hecta e an nly e cee in fi e hecta es , st a e pe

ate y a fa ily la ely t p i e f f su sistence an use ini al, p i iti e techn l ies

Conventional wisdom has been that more food is produced by inc easin scale, c ns li atin fa ily fa s int a ac e fa s la e scale past al pe ati ns, y utili in feel ts, y h usin ani als in she s hese intensi e syste s,

hich i e eatly f u i a e f a past al i yll, ha e raised consumer concerns about the impact on the environ

ent an ate uality n the elfa e f ani als an n the nut iti nal uality f the f ein p uce

These worries arise even before we consider the impact these syste s ha e n u al c unities, the is s f c ns li atin p ucti n in a sin le a ea, the en i n ental f tp int ass ciate ith ist i utin the p uct s a c nse uence, the sea ch is n f ne fa in els that f cus n eetin the nut iti nal nee s f the p pulati n hile ette utili in natu al es u ces an e e in f p ucti n cl se t those who will ultimately eat the food.

hile p e icti ns a e useful, e a e still a l n ay f , an a h le ne ene ati n f e s ill e fa in

by midcentury. Much will happen between now and then that e cann t p e ict, ut if the past is any ui e, the e ill e i esp ea a pti n f p ecisi n techn l y, hich ill e

t uly aut ate an fact y li e ith ts n the un as well as in the air.

ea y t shippin c ntaine ith installe a uap nics, syste

c ines fish a uacultu e ith hy p nics, culti atin plants in

ate un e a tificial li htin



a in tu ns u an an e tical

an fa in an e tical fa in a e a n the inn ati e s luti ns sta tin t ain t acti n a un the l hey can ta e the f f c e cial p ucti n in s y fa s n t p f ffices supe a ets, c unal all t ent a eas l cate n ass e es ue t lac f space , e i le e s in pa s

an a ens, li in alls n uil in s, an s cial f p ects set up t supp t isa anta e c unities

e t these techn l ies is inn ati n in the use f li htin syste s that ena le plants t uic ly an ith enhance nut iti nal p pe ties e tical fa in is especially alua le in u an a eas he e lan is sca ce an e pensi e he an e f c ps that can e ec n ically n in these syste s is inc easin , hile the c sts ass ciate ith e el pin a facility a e ec easin a in the e an e c nplace in any cities a un the l e a ple, p ne lin in une pa tne e ith i ates li ht ate in t c eate the l s la est e tical fa th usan s ua e feet – which is due to open in Dubai by the end of 2019.

e all, the c ncept appea s t us t chec se e al aste itiati n es, a untin t su stantial en i n ental enefits e sus t a iti nal a icultu e hese inclu e

• less ate e ui e e sus c n enti nal fiel n p uce, n a icultu al un e e e t l aste ate is p ta le

• nsi e a ly less ac ea e e ui e the fa s a e stac e e tically ithin p s in in ust ial uil in s

• e use f pestici es, he ici es fun ici es seale en in ent ith n s il , an less fe tili e use plants a e ic se ith n e cess aste fe tili e

ne y use, an specifically its ca n f tp int, is e ula ly cite y th se h pp se e tical fa in u hly f the c st f s s l is lin e t elect icity use ut u une stan in is that a ances in techn l y a e e pecte

t c ntinue t e uce c sts in the c in yea s e e , these c sts ust e c nsi e e al n si e the enefits f peple eatin as l cal as p ssi le ess f iles the istance f esh n p uce is t ansp te e uals u an p pulati ns ettin the f eshest f p ssi le, hich enc u a es us t eat

in seas n an e uces the e use f ha ful pac a in

S u ce etty I a es



Scientists move into the meat business

he a ility t c eate f that eplicates eat, fish, e s an dairy products – with a lower carbon footprint and without the nee t slau hte ani als is li ely t ec e a c ecially ia le pti n in the ne t eca e e a ple, in

eat in a la c ul cut e issi ns cause y a icultu e y hile usin less lan , acc in t the u

nal n i n ental Science echn l y

n la n cultu e eat c ul e a i e et een eal eat an plant ase p ucts ethe lan s ase sa

eat uses self ep ucin cells t p uce eat that is an ani al ase p uct hile a i in the nee t ee , aise, an slau hte hu e nu e s f ani als Scientists ta e

ste cells f an ani al c , pi , chic en, an sea c eatu es an place the in a in e iu in a i eact t p uce cultu e eat

hile science can t yet c eate the te tu e f a fine stea , pcesse eat such as u e s, chic en nu ets, an eat alls a e ettin e ie s an a e e pecte t e a aila le n supea et shel es ithin fi e yea s the c panies li e Sin a

p e s Shi eats a e f cusin n cell ase seaf he e scientists replicate shrimp stem cells in a lab to create edible tissue. Ultimately, the idea is for these cells to be cultivated until they

la e sheets f h le uscle tissue his isi n is n t yet eality, ith se e al fi s hi hli htin technical challen es epli

catin the te tu e an shape f eal eat

ls , f n , p ice is the a ie in the S, un eef that c es f li est c in the c unt y c sts a un S p un

S , une hile the p ice is u hly S p un f la n eef e sus ey n u e at S p un une

, ashin t n st his ap ill un u te ly cl se as p iate in est ent an e an inc ease in a ch , e phis eats t l the all St eet u nal that it ha tten the p ice f

a p un f cell cultu e chic en n t S , p un , an just a year later its CEO announced the price had dropped to bel S , p un ashin t n st,

The other battle over these new meat alternatives, aimed at p e entin c panies f usin the te eat f anythin the than c n enti nally aise eat, has al ea y tu ne p litical, ith le islati n ein p p se has al ea y een passe in a nu e f u is icti ns Still, i c p ati ns

in l e in the eat in ust y a e the sel es als in estin hea ily in eat inn ati n as a f f uts u ce an e a ple is S iss eat p cessin iant ell up, which has invested in Mosa Meat.

S u ce etty I a es



anics ente the ainst ea

The local food movement has become a notable component f the p e iu f sect that has e e e a un the

world in recent years. It was born of the desire to assess the inte ity f the pe s n h s y u f an e a s this p cess as inte al t ensu in healthie , safe , e en i nmentally sustainable food.

S all fa e s a ets sp utin up in u an a eas c nstitute a sepa ate e ent in itself, ut anics a e seen as pa t an pa cel f this a e t en e e theless, anic fa in ten s t p la i e thin in ne ca p a ues that i esp ea a pti n f anic p actices ill sta e half the l , hile the the sees it as c ucial t healthie eatin he ey uesti n is hethe anic p uce ep esents a necessity it is just a desirable option for consumers.

s e un e stan e a ut the t ins an ca cin ens that permeate our daily lives, the commitment of many consumers t anic an i l ical p ucts appea s t e uil in

nce ns that hi h alue cust e s ha e a ut the safety an nut iti nal uality f thei f as ell as a ut inn ati ns in h p ucts a e an e an a ete t c nsu e s a e c eatin a less elastic e an p file f these p ucts

ne ain a u ent a ainst anics is the l e yiel s achieved with them. This issue appears less relevant in the c nte t f the anic sect as it is inc easin ly enefitin f the sa e i ital an p ecisi n techn l ies as n nanic fa e s n the y, as e enti ne in en , is

that c nsu e s h select nly anic p uce ul iss ut n any f the enefits f the ne ene ati n f inn a

tion by seed scientists.

he ey uesti n is hethe anic p uce

represents a necessity to or a desirable option for consumers.

Food for thought

S u ce etty I a es



ic al ae c ul alte the l

cc in t the , f the seaf c nsu e each yea c es f a uacultu e hat s e, it p e icts the a uacultu e in ust y ill c ntinue t p ucti n is seen inc easin y y In the i st f e e ythin , this has put enormous pressure on feed supplies, which are

stly a e up f f a e fish, s y an the ains In fact, a ut f the illi n t ns f f a e fish pulle f the il each yea a e un int eal il t nu tu e fish fa e f hu an c nsu pti n i ashi n, ic e

anach, i elle , aniel auly,

This problem has spurred researchers to try to manufacture a stan in that ill p i e the nut ients f un in f a e fish, e ec n ically ia le, yet n t eplete es u ces such as ains that hu ans i ectly epen n f f l ae c ul e a ia le eplace ent fish fatty aci s u ce f this species f fa e fish In ust y esea ch e eals that al ae s as much as 10 times faster than terrestrial plants, and less than ne tenth f the lan is nee e t p uce an e ui alent

amount of biomass.

e e , scalin up p esents the i est hu le as eplacin the illi n t ns f il a uacultu e fish use e e y yea

ill e ui e assi e lu es f ic al ae p ucti n ucti n c sts ul als e e ui e t p, as fa e s ill the ise pt f the a e uate an cheape ain cc in t an a ticle y eslie e in the Scientific e ican , the inhe ent hu les t a pin up p ucti n a e nailin

the i ht ati s f fatty aci s, such as e a s, an si ulatin the natu al alance f un in fish il

esea che s ust eithe fin the pe fect al al yeast st ains an fee the the i ht sta te , s ass ciate ic es p uce e e ythin in p p ti n they ust c ine fatty aci s f a i us s u ces, hich a es c inatin p ucti n e en e ifficult s ell, uesti ns e ain a ut h uch

eenh use as the i itati n fee efine y p cesses ill e it

In u pini n, the e c in f these hu les ill e c ucial t eetin hu an nee s ith ut a in t the untin p essu es n a ine ec syste s f e fishin an cli ate chan e

S u ce etty I a es


Chapter 4

acin innovation at the farm

hallen in the fun a entals f h , he e, an hich f e

a fiel in ul a iaS u ce etty I a es

hapte acin inn ati n at the fa


e appea t e n the cusp f a a step chan e, n t nly in p ucti ity, ut in challen in the e y fun a entals f h , he e, an hen e f Sta t ups an c p ati ns ha e a an e f techn l ical inn ati ns that, y inte

atin i ital s luti ns int fa in syste s, inc ease the p ecisi n applicati n f nut ients an the inputs i e , a in

hey s hile ini i in a a e t s il, ta in aanta e f un anne ehicle a ances th n lan an in

the ai , an enhancin ani al an plant enetics, nut iti n, and health to improve productivity.

he a nitu e f the pp tunity is est illust ate y the inc ease in in est ent in these techn l ies e the last eca e In , a itech in est ents a unte t an esti ate

S his fi u e se t S n y , acc in t ata i en a icultu e is al ea y helpin fa e s an f p uce s isc e inn ati e ays t more with less. As urbanization reduces the rural labor force, ne techn l ies ill e ital in easin the l a n the e ainin fa e s pe ati ns ill e ne e tely, p cesses ill e aut ate , is s ill e i entifie y achine, an is

sues ill e es l e y eyin e s int a cent al c an cente In the futu e, a fa e s s illset ill inc easin ly e a

i f techn l y an i l y a ilities athe than pu e a icultu al n h

he ne s is that fa e s a e al ea y c f ta le ith techn l y et, acc in ian e cy a isc nnect e

ains e elie es that until e fin a alue p p siti n f fa e s t et in l e in a itech, they ill i htly e ain la ely s eptical f the ne p ucts he nus is n techn l

y t p e i ital a ances a en t ust ec f ien ly ells an histles hey nee t a e it p ssi le t p uce e,

hi he uality f ith less anp e n ent ep eneu s in in th se p ucts t a et ill nee t acti ely athe

fee ac f the use s they e t yin t help

c nnecti ity an the lac f inte ate p actical s luti ns a e the eas ns i iti ati n has la e ls , tic achine y e ains p hi iti ely e pensi e an p int s luti ns li e

nes an I ena le fiel s a e c stly an c e ith a steep lea nin cu e

e e n t uite the e yet, ut the lan scape is chan in an ette pti ns a e e e in e iscuss e a ples n the f ll in pa es

a e yin ne e fa fiel



ts n the un

act ui ance an aut stee a e ell esta lishe techn lies ut un anne aut n us t act s ill ta e l n e t ec e c n enti nal e ulati n, hi h sens c sts, an the

lac f fa e s t ust a e the li itin fact s, n t the techn ly itself he ise f s a t i ple ents, h e e , is athe in

pace In ee , a ance isi n techn l y has een ena le y achine lea nin i e , eep lea nin e e, achines lea n t istin uish et een c ps an ee s as the i ple ent is

pulle al n the fiel , ena lin the t ta e site specific ee in sp ayin acti n e anticipate that such i pleents ill ec e inc easin ly c n hey a e still in thei

ea ly infancy an the s a e is still ein e n int entu e et een sch an aye t e el p intelli ent sp ay

e s is nea in a c e ciali ati n

utsi e f a ac e a icultu e, the applicati n f a ts has een li ite in h ticultu e, pa ticula ly, s a t techn l y has een la ely c nfine t i i ati n ut a fe f esh st a e y ha este s ha e een t iale an s e a e t ansiti nin

int c e cial e he tas e ains technically challen

in th u h the isi n syste nee s t etect f uits insi e a c ple can py hile tic a s ust api ly, cheaply, an ently pic the f uit el en e ect s, inclu in th se ase n s tics that passi ely a apt t the f uit s shape,

ha e i p e aspin al ith s un e pinne y I lea nin p cesses c st, en u h tic a s a e in in pa allel, an ette isi n syste s a e all helpin push this techn l y t a c e cial ia ility

In ai y, th usan s f tic il in achines ha e al ea y een installe l i e e a ple, the e a e , autate il in syste s in the ethe lan s, f the t tal f , il in installati ns ai y l al, his eans

that u hly f utch fa e s ha e a t, an the inust y ill c ntinue t e pan as thei ia ility is esta lishe

S u ce etty I a es



...and drones in the air

nes a e n ein use at e e y sta e f the in cycle hey p uce p ecise aps f ea ly s il analysis, assist in the plannin f see plantin , an athe ata t help ana e i i ati n an nit en le els

icultu e is e e in as ne f the ain a essa le a ets for drones as the industry pivots away from consumer models that ha e ec e c iti e in ecent yea s e sta t ups ha e c eate ne ase plantin syste s that e c ease

e all plantin c sts hese syste s sh t p s ith see s an nut ients int the s il, p i in e e ythin nee e f c ps t

ls , in the applicati n f c p p tecti n che icals, nes can scan the un f p tential issues e , pests,

fun al ea uts, etc In fact, ae ial sp ayin can e fi e ti es faster with drones than with traditional machinery.

Inefficient c p nit in is a hu e stacle t hi he pucti n ith nes, ti e se ies ani ati ns can sh the eel p ent f a c p an e eal p ucti n inefficiencies, en

a lin ette ana e ent y scannin a c p usin th isi le an nea inf a e li ht, ne ca ie e ices can help

t ac chan es in plants, an analy e thei health an ale t farmers to disease.

S u ce etty I a es



i ata an c nnecti ity

In u n e In est ent the e na lin techn l ies, e i entify cl u an i ata as t f the fi e ena lin

techn l ies set t e p e techn l ical is upti n ac ss many industries and potentially even displace incumbent inust y lea e s he ise f cl u techn l y is a e c ati in

I , in u ie It ena les s alle usinesses t use ente p ise class applicati ns, hile i ata can help e t act si nificant alue f la e an untappe p ls f ata t c ple t

manipulate with standard methods and tools.

In f p ucti n, c nnecte e ices li e I an sens s a e it p ssi le t athe ast a unts f ata f analysis y

cl u an i ata techn l ies he esult is in epth n le e f a icultu al fact s, such as hu i ity, l cal ainfall rates, and temperature variations, which can be used to optimize many processes.

In South America, for instance, the FAO ran a project on water efficiency usin I e ices, cl u st a e, an i ata techn l ies e analy in the ata, the y a e p actical ec

en ati ns t help fa e s a e ette ecisi ns i e ise, a ill has ta en a sta e in ainthus, an I ish sta tup that

uses facial ec niti n s a e t i entify in i i ual c s an t ac he health ai e at inc easin p ucti ity in ai y fa s

In food production, connected devices li e I an sens s a e it p ssi le t

athe ast a unts f ata f analysis y cl u an i ata techn l ies

I is ne f the fastest in techn l y e ice a ets units in n

IoT 2018 2024 CAGR

i e a ea I 1.1 4.5

Sh t an e I 7.5 17.8

Total 8.6 22.3 17%

Sources: Ericsson, UBS, as of November 2018

he I has een c nst aine y ina e uate access t c nnectivity, especially in rural areas. Investment in communication net s in the utlyin a eas f any c unt ies an the t ansf ati nal p tential f techn l ies an the lp e e net s luti ns a e a in i itali ati n f the sector more feasible for many remote rural producers. As the ec n ic an s cial p tential f hi h spee a an is ec

ni e , such u al c nnecti ity is inc easin n esistance t chan e is fallin as the in ust y n t nly ente s a pe i f ene ati nal successi n ut the financial an en i n ental enefits f i itally au ente fa in ec e e appa

ent he sh ta e f s luti ns i inishes as e an s

Food for thought

S u ce etty I a es



Satellite ena le syste s

cc in t , p ecisi n a icultu e that utili es satellite ena le fa in is ec in e a aila le as the c st ps an the capa ility ises t e ula ly c llect la escale i a es f lan a eas f s all, elati ely l c st itin satellite syste s hese i a es a e analy e ith i l ical al ith s an the t ls t se e, easu e, un e stan , an esp n t inte an int a fiel a ia ility in c ps

cc in t the , api th in the applicati n f p ecisi n fa in techn l ies is ccu in y ena lin the p ecise uantificati n f an input ate , fe tili e , c p p tecti n

che ical t e applie t specific a eas, fa e s can si ultaneously reduce costs and enhance production yields. Data f a i us s u ces inclu in hi h es luti n satellite i ae y, ete l ical ec s, s il nut ient sens s, ate au es, an p ucti n ep ts can e inte ate an ana

ly e y al ith s t p uce hi hly specific ec en ati ns that n t nly aise p ucti n ut ta e acc unt f the environment.

y ena lin the p ecise uantificati n f an input ate , fe tili e , c p

p tecti n che ical t e applie t specific a eas, fa e s can si ultaneously reduce costs and enhance production yields.

he st si nificant enefits ill e aine y inte atin iffe ent types f techn l y i ata, I , an satellites in in c n uncti n ith sens s ill e a a e chan e hen applied across production systems – whether pastoral, horticultu al, any the f f i l ical p ucti n in a i iin the p ucti n p tential f lan hile ini i in the en i n ental i pact n it eli e in hat is p ssi le elies n ec uitin s ille pe ple, c in ata t e i e insi hts

that can i p e utc es, an uil in the al ith s a le t au ent the intuiti n f th se pe atin the syste

Food for thought

S u ce etty I a es



ate sa in techn l y is ital

cc in t the , illi n pe ple n t ha e access t a e uate sanitati n e than illi n ha e n access t safe in in ate he l al f p ucti n syste is the la est ate use l i e It c nsu es f the planet s f esh ate ate sca city n t nly a ects s cial an ecnomic stability, it also undermines the sustainability of natural en i n ents an ec syste s esea ch su ests that c unt ies a e al ea y e pe iencin se e e ate sh ta es, an esti ates that half the l al p pulati n c ul e li in in aeas f hi h ate st ess y

ne esult f u ani ati n ill e hi he in ust iali ati n an ate use, hich ill place eate p essu e n a icultu al,

f esh ate , an c astal a uacultu e es u ces he Inte national Union for Conservation of Nature estimates that, by

, e an s f ate , ene y, an f ill ise y , , an , especti ely s a c nse uence, the e is a in f cus n h the f in ust y uses ate an n

the p ucti n f tp int it lea es esi nin syste s an epl yin i ital an analytic techn l ies that ena le p uce s t un e stan thei ate a aila ility an utili in the ith precision are critical.

cc in t the , e than million people have no access to safe

in in ate

Food for thought

S u ce etty I a es

Fourth Industrial Revolution capabilities can play a major role in iti atin e an ac ss ate intensi e in ust ies In the a icultu e sect , f e a ple, c panies li e ic s a e e nst atin h p ecisi n i i ati n techni ues can e pl y

s a t sens s i ple ente in c p fiel s an satellite i a es t lean inf ati n a ut s il c n iti ns nes ta e i a es f fiel s an I inte p ets the ata t el a heat ap f the

crop area.

ist i ute le e techn l ies e pp tunities t fu the in uence the eha i f t a e s an en use s y ena lin pee t pee t a in f ate all cati ns a n use s in an pen an t anspa ent anne iscusse fu the in the Supply

chain Inn ati n chapte




people without access to sanitation

Currently

2.3 billion

650 millionpeople have no accessto safe drinking water

By 2050 global demand will rise:

of the planets’s freshwater is used for global food production

Currently

70% +55%

for water

+80% for energy

+60% for food


Currently


Source: The international Union for Conservation of Nature, June 2019

S u ce etty I a es

hapte acin inn ati n at the fa his inte ie c ntains ie s hich i inate f utsi e hief In est ent ffice l al ealth ana e ent I It is the ef e p ssi le that the inte ie es n t fully eflect

the ie s f I


Interview with Adrian Percy, PhD

Adrian PercyAdrian Percy, who has more than 25 yea s f e pe ience in the a icultu al industry, is an advocate of the need for an enefits f techn l y in e n a icultu e e cu ently se es as the

f iniste e entu es, a l al techn l y an life sciences entu e capital in est In a iti n, he f e uently acts as an a icultu al in ust y ep esentati e and advisor or independent director to c panies th u h his n c nsultancy c pany, a echn l y nsultin e i usly, ian se e as the head of research and development for the Crop Science division of Bayer as pa t f its e ecuti e c ittee

echn l y ill play an inc easin le in f an sustaina ility initiati es Its e eence has ccu e at a hi hly pp tune ti e e face the challen e f an e pan

in p pulati n t fee , fuel, an cl the ith inc easin ly li ite es u ces a aila le t us hethe e e tal in a ut lan , s il, ate , nut ients, la ls , u chan in cli ate is in uencin the natu al li itati ns f the planet

S e sp e ith ian e cy, h , a lu ina y in the fiel f a icultu e an f science e uesti ne hi a ut h techn l y can supp t l al f secu ity

hile c nse in the en i n ent

What kind of investment opportunities are there in agritech?e nee t c pletely t ansf u a icultu al an f p ucti n syste s t

ensu e f secu ity f all, eet e l in c nsu e e an s, an c nse e u planet s p eci us es u ces f ene ati ns t c e he e a e nu e us ne e citin techn l ies that can e applie t aisin a icultu al p ucti ity, safe ua in en i n ental health, an satisfyin e l in c nsu e p efe ences

instance, in in e ecti e ne techn l y t e s t eplace, c ple ent, si ply inc ease the efficiency f e istin c p p tecti n eth s e s a p

p tunities hey inclu e i s luti ns ith i p e en i n ental safety an cpletely new approaches that improve yield and increase natural plant resistance to isease an pests, such as the techn l y ein e el pe y i u ic

I a als e cite a ut a ance ee in t ls, such as th se ein e el pe y i i elity enetics he applicati n f c putati nal ee in app aches can help

i entify ne a n ic an uality t aits in a uch e p ecise anne It spee s up the f plant ee e s an c eates e efficient see a ieties that enefit

e s an c nsu e s ali e ll f these techn l ies can e applie e e ecti ely an efficiently n the fa th u h the use f ette a e an el un sens s, applicati n t ls, an ena lin i ital platf s

Who will drive this transformation?his ti e, in y ie , a a i c p ati ns can t s l e all the challen es n thei

n It ill ta e a c aliti n that inclu es ne ent ants, e s, an e n ents t eet the challen es ahea f us

e nee t f cus n pen inn ati n an c lla ati n I h pe an e pect t see this sect an ec syste atu e as in est ent inte est in it eepens an i e sifies I thin ne an e citin techn l ies ill e e e f ithin a i an as c ss e s from other sectors, such as pharma.

he f chain appea s t e sh tenin nsu e p efe ences, inclu in a ean f e t anspa ency an t acea ility in it, ill inc easin ly i e eha i n


4747


the ie s f I

July 2019 – The food revolution

the fa In fact, ne f the st e citin e el p ents is the e e ence f a itech hu s an f tech inn ati n a un the l

e s ill e a le t cust i e thei pe ati ns t a e ee uni a ina le e en a fe yea s a Still, these techn l ies ill n t e successful unless they a e i ely a pte n the fa he c panies that e the nee t intelli ently ne tiate e ulat y e ui e ents, ain a et access, an e a clea etu n n in est ent

t e s

S , e en th u h inn ati n is the nly path t sustaina le fa in , techn l y al ne ill n t s l e the any issues c nf ntin e n a icultu e I e tal e en

a ut h the l ss f t ust a n p uce s an c nsu e s i inishes u a ility t c pe ith e l in pests, li ite natu al es u ces, latile a ets, shi in c nsu e p efe ences, an a chan in cli ate

You mention trust. Why do we embrace technological advances in virtually all other fields while expecting farmers to continue employing agrarian practices first used more than a century ago?

e n a icultu e, y any eanin ful easu e, is an un ualifie success a e s p uce e f n less lan an fee e pe ple c st e ecti ely than e e ef e ut instea f cele atin the a ances that ha e a e this p ssi le, any consumers are fearful of them.

his fea ste s pa tly f hat I see as an inn ati n isc nnect any c nsue s n l n e ha e any ass ciati n ith fa s an n t un e stan the ealities f fa in hat sai , ac n le in this situati n is n t en u h It s up t us in a icultu e t help i e that isc nnect an uil t ust

e all, it s i p ssi le t sustain a usiness ith ut t ust hile iscussin scientific inf ati n ith the pu lic ay e ifficult, it s als i p tant e can sta t y listenin t c nsu e c nce ns an fin in c n un n he e e all a ee

e n c nsu e s ca e eeply a ut f safety, i i e sity, ate uality, s il health, an en i n ental sustaina ility hese sa e c nsi e ati ns a e i in the ne t ene ati n f a icultu al inn ati ns e ust a a clea c nnecti n et een these inn ati ns an the i ect enefits that they eli e t pe ple ithin their families and communities.

in in ays t fa e sustaina ly an p i e safe, a un ant, nut iti us f s t a api ly in l is a challen e that nly science can s l e I thin it s ti e that

e sha e u n le e, c n icti n, an passi n ith any ne h ill listen n e en ith th se h n t e can sta t this p cess y tal in plainly an penly


Chapter 5

What’s new on the menu?

ene e ite e ies, plant ase u e s, f p intin , an pe s nali e nut iti n

Source: Ailine Liefeld

Chapter 5 – What’s new on the menu?


s the l s p pulati n s in si e an ealth an u ani es, the f in ust y ill nee t c ntinu usly e in ent itself It ust eal ith the p actical i plicati ns f cli ate chan e, natu al es u ce c nst aints, in health c nce ns an the latest fashion and lifestyle trends. What and how we eat now i e s f hat an h e ate nly a ene ati n a an ill i e f hat an h e eat in a eca e s ti e ech

n l ical inn ati n als shapes e an f f p ucts, f its in e ients an a s t its functi n

ay s f p uce s an p cess s ill nee st ate ies that help ena le the t stay ele ant n hile the f ll in techn l ies an the iscussi n a e ene al in natu e, these a e the ain uc ets at the cuttin e e f h an hat e will eat in the decade, in our view. However, a word of cauti n, this t ansiti n ill e n t e al ays sea less cc in t es, the e is ne esea ch e in a a nin t c panies l in t sell cultu e eat his ne type f p tein c ul en up su e in the sa e fate as s if p uce s an p p nents a en t a le t shi the pu lic na ati e

ac then, ne s ep ts n s ten e t hi hli ht the scientific ec n ic aspects e the featu es li e yiel enefits t fa e s, e uce applicati ns f pestici es e ecently, the enhance enefits f e a fatty aci s i e

plant ee e s, p uce s f plant ase an n el f s ill face s epticis as a cates cha acte i e a tificial p tein pucts as un natu al, a tificial, synthetic ec e e cal

Recent worldwide surveys tell us that while most consumers supp t inn ati ns that help fi ht l al hun e , they a e als c nce ne that science t ay ay e ha in pe ple an the planet. Innovators need to be attentive to their concerns and responsive to their needs. That doesn’t mean we abandon thei i eas, ut athe i p e the uality f these c n e sati ns, an en a e n



i techn l y ene e ite f is the ne t iant leap

i tech, inclu in ia the use f ene ifie anis s s an IS ene e itin , is a a a ance ent f

f p ucti n an secu ity IS techn l y in pa ticula c ul a e si nificant in a s t fee in the cu ent an

in l p pulati n l ea y e st u le t n u ish the cu ent p pulati n f se en illi n pe ple, an cli ate chan e

ill nly c eate ne challen es in c in eca es lti ately, e nee t inc ease a icultu al p ucti ity an p e ent the

loss of biodiversity simultaneously. As such, science will be calle up n t help e c e stacles an eet l al f demand.

IS en inee e c ps ul ha e uilt in esistance t u ht, pests, an isease, hich eans less che ical inte

enti n, lea in t ette en i n ental utc es esi es, p uce c ul e esi ne t ha e eate functi nal enefits, such as a hi he ita in an ine al c ntent hich is eneficial to human health.

c sts sh ul als ecline cc in t a an , each ne see a iety in l es an a e a e t tal c st f u hly

S illi n an epen in n the ee in eth can ta e et een ei ht an yea s t e el p e e , the use f ne a e assiste ee in techn l ies such as IS

c ul e uce the spen an ti eline t yea s

h u h, any c nsu e s eacte ne ati ely t p e i us a icultu al applicati ns e i e f i techn l y She et al,

, na ely s an put ene e itin in the sa e uc et, pa ticula ly in the u pean ni n s a ue y She

an e cy, ith ut inc ease c nsu e acceptance li ely achieved by improved methods of education and public ena e ent IS a icultu al applicati ns ay face the

sa e e ulati ns an challen es f t a iti nal s, ha pein IS s c nt i uti n t sustaina le a icultu e

cc in t e cy , futu e p uce s, t an ptect u f , ill nee these ne an i e se inte ate techn l ies that in c nce t ith the natu al en i n

ent c uple ith eal ti e ia n stic inf ati n this inclu es IS techn l y e nee t ust the lin e in yth that techn l y is the ene y f natu al, a un ant, nut iti nal an a a le f cates f i techn l y elie e c nsu e s a e n t e a a e that c ps ha e utpe f e n n f e than yea s in te s f p ucti ity an a e t i i e sity t f the ey sustaina ility in icat s

S u ce etty I a es



Suspici n a ut the a ility f plant ase eat su stitutes t p i e a enuinely li e f li e e pe ience as eat has put

any c nsu e s f s itchin t these p ucts en asse netheless, thei p pula ity is in ey challen e these

p ucts face is eplicatin the fat alance f eat, alth u h new alternative proteins represent a vast improvement in terms f taste e thei p e ecess s an a e ec in esta lishe

e cepti n ill e the ey challen e hen it c es t alte nati e p tein lant ase u e s ha e ecently ec e a fitu e f ac ya illin in any c unt ies Sta tups an estalishe eat p cess s a e p ucin the , ta etin c nsu e s h ha e plant an eat ase iets ali e y in c easin pti ns f e eta ians an e ans hile enticin cani es t c nsu e an en i n entally f ien ly p uct ith ut c p isin n taste

his yea the st c p ice f plant ase unic n ey n eat su e e than fi ef l in less than t nths a e it I

e n the S he alif nia ase sta tup is ne f se e al sec n a e f p uce s e el pin inn ati e processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of eal eat usin nly plant ase in e ients

his eca e l n path f scu e t ainst ea can e t ace in pa t ac t the ai y aisle, he e s y , al n , an c c nut ase il s ha e clai e sp ts al n si e c s il hat sa e shelf st ate y helpe the S n n ai y il aet s , t S n, in the fi e yea s t , ac

c in t intel It n clai s a a et sha e f traditional dairy producers.

ey n eat has a pte the sa e tactic It e uests eataisle place ent f its u e an sausa e eplace ents instea f ele atin the t the specialty e eta ian shelf f ee e I p ssi le s, an the sec n a e plant ase

eat a e , has spent yea s st i in t natu ally eplicate the taste, te tu e, an l f a u e eat patty

i e ise, the alte nati e t ai y a et has seen api th an is ein p e e y, in pa t, fa ilia a etin

levers – healthiness, humaneness, and sustainability. Another st ate y as t push p ucts th u h hi h en pa tne s S e ish at il a e atly tu ne its S capacity c nst aints int st en th, i ectin ea ly ist i uti n t hi h en esp ess a s in e Sca city an the a ista hal e ect helpe esta lish pent up c nsu e e an , an set a p ice p int in line a e that f e ula ai y p ucts n the c pany, e fect ay, is applyin ene se uencin an p intin t c eate il ith ut the c

hat st ate y has een ech e in ea ly ist i uti n eals st uc y I p ssi le s Its u e s, hich ta e n a l e

hue f a fe ente yeast p cess, fi st e ute in li ite uantities at e s hi h en estau ants It has since

e pan e t e , S utlets, acc in t the fi , inclu in a ass a et play ia nati n i e ist i uti n in fast f iant u e in th ey n an I p ssi le ha e

a e in a s int n n an Sin ap e, tappin hi hen estau ants in the t en settin sian l cities apacity c nst aints n p ucti n, hich th ha e cite as ey spen in a eas in thei latest fun aisin un s, ha e le to limited availability.

t su p isin ly, plant ase p ucts ha e face push ac an e ulat y l yin f eat an ai y in ust y ana a, se e al S states an the a e in the p cess f passin , l in t pass, le islati n that ul p e ent these alte nati es f ein calle ha u e s un eef

the e e s f the a icultu al sect , h e e , a e e supp ti e f plant ase p tein e a ple, ana a s

an In e ients, the l s la est anufactu e f pulse in e ients peas, chic peas, un eans, lentils etc , e pects e an f u an c ncent ates e i e f the

ains it p uces t s y c et

lant ase p tein is is uptin eat a ets

S u ce etty I a es

Chapter 5 – What’s new on the menu? his inte ie c ntains ie s hich i inate f utsi e hief In est ent ffice l al ealth ana e ent I It is the ef e p ssi le that the inte ie es n t fully eflect

the ie s f I


Interview with ichael e e ,

Michael Greger, MD f un in e e an fell f the

e ican lle e f ifestyle e icine, ichael e e , , is a physician, est

sellin auth t t ie , an f un e f the n n p fit, science ase pu lic se ice ut iti n acts e is a

a uate f nell ni e sity Sch l f icultu e an u s ni e sity Sch l

of Medicine. There are more than a thousand videos on nearly every aspect f healthy eatin f eely a aila le at u

t iti n acts

he a etin f plant ase eat has stly f cuse n its a anta es e eef and other types of animal meat, be it from the standpoint of animal welfare, sustaina ility health i ence f the fi st clai is i us he sustaina ility i pact f s itchin f eef t plant ase eat is clea t , ith si nificant a anta es in te s f eenh use as e issi ns, lan usa e an ate c nsu pti n see i

ut the nut iti nal alue f ne hi hly p cesse plant ase u e s has pe sistently een uesti ne in p pula e ia, lea in any c nsu e s ala e cauti us t fi st lance, a si e y si e analysis f a typical eef u e a ainst these ne t ene ati n plant ase alte nati es su ests s ethin f a nut iti nal a S e sp e ith ichael e e , a l n ti e a cate f plant ase nut iti n, t fin ut e

Is plant-based meat unhealthy?he i est insi ht f this c pa is n see i is that fast f is n t pa ticu

la ly healthy, hethe it s eat ase n t h le f plant ase pti n, such as a ean u e , e ains the st nut iti nal ut this ne ene ati n f plantase eat appea s t lean a little t hea ily n salt, ith the ey n u e c n

tainin a ut e s iu than a typical eef patty hat s a ut a ua te f the aily inta e li it ec en e y the e ican ea t ss ciati n S e types f plant ase eat ha e c pa a le satu ate fat c ntent, ut the plant ase al

ternatives clearly outperform in terms of transfat and cholesterol.

Is processed food unhealthy?he ue ealth Initiati e, a l al c aliti n f l en n e pe ts, has esta lishe

a c nsensus ie that the healthiest iet is ne c nsistin stly f ini ally pcesse , ene ally plant ase f s i en the i pact hea t isease has n u sciety, the lower levels of saturated fat and the absence of transfat and cholesterol in

st plant ase pti ns a e elc e n I ul li e t a that if plant ase meat successfully redirects public consumption patterns away from beef and other types f eat, that c ul i pact elate cance , ia etes, an st e is s

i n i n ental i pact f s itchin f eef t plant ased meat

Compared to beef Impossible Burger Beyond burger

e issi ns e

an use y

ate f tp int lite s

S u ces ey n eat s ey n u e ife ycle ssess ent, Septe e , p licy, ece e , Update, 2019, Value of water research report series no. 48, 2010

Chapter 5 – What’s new on the menu?his inte ie c ntains ie s hich i inate f utsi e hief In est ent ffice l al ealth ana e ent I It is the ef e p ssi le that the inte ie es n t fully eflect

the ie s f I

53July 2019 – The food revolution

What do the nutrition charts not tell us?he st si nificant a anta e n t f un n the nut iti nal cha ts is f safety lant ase f has n issues ith intestinal u s, such as c li Sal nella, as

the f ne e ha intestines he e a e als la e n tic isease is s, such as i u, that ul e lessene y the s itch he scale an spee f e n anial fa in ha e le t hea y usa e f anti i tics c itical t hu an e icine If ean f eat c ntinues t , e c ul see e a pant usa e f anti i tics

an e anti i tic esistant acte ia ente in the f chain

Should I avoid GMO plant-based food? I p ssi le s st hi h p file c ntent is a ene e ite yeast e

si ne t p uce he e his e it all s f at ase p ucti n, si nificantly a pin up p ucti n efficiency he S has i en this in e ient its ene ally

app e as safe la el he the c ntent c es f stan a s y, hich p esents its n nsi es, inclu in hea y usa e f the he ici e lyph

sate a ly, if y u a e f cuse n sustaina ility als, this e e ecti e p cess ep esents an en i n ental ain

i ut iti n c pa is n et een eef an the plant ased meat pattyase n patty

Beef Impossible Beyond Black Bean

Satu ate fat 8 8 6 1.5

ans fat 1.5 0 0 0

h leste l 80 0 0 0

al ies cal 240 240 280 270

S iu 230 370 390 96

tein 20 19 20 11

I n 2.8 4.2 4.2 3.6

ita in c 3 3 0 0

i e 0 3 2 7.3

tassiu c 345 610 300 420

S u ces ey n u e p uct etail, lac ean u e , u e in nut ient inf ati n, I p ssi le s , Mijn Eetmeter, USDA database, 13317, USDA database, 16015.



f p intin is al st he e

hile ne t ene ati n in e ients, tic appliances, n el c in eth s, an the techn l y p ise t e a e u cuisine, f p intin has al ea y a e its ay int e

pe i ental itchens S spin ee e s p inte p ints pi as f a use ent pa s, sp tin e ent enues, la e scale estau ants, an e en e n ent ilita y canteens y

a in pi a in e ients in p e f an ehy atin them, their printer has even made pizzas in space.

ut the eal alue f f p intin lies in cust i ati n s people’s dietary restrictions have increased, the trend toward pe s nali ati n in f has al ea y aine t acti n f h e p intin ul ena le pe ple t e e t e c nt l e

hat they ch se t eat an the in e ients inclu e in it, ut the challen e is t c eate f s that taste, feel, an l li e

hat c nsu e s e pect he esults a e ettin ette In e futuristic applications, 3D printers will even support specialized iets ase n n el f s an in e ients ali ne ith y u

nut iti nal nee s p efe ences an in f i n eficiency t e eta ianis t luten f ee ietin

S u ce etty I a es

f h e p intin ul ena le pe ple t e e t e c nt l e hat they ch se t eat an the in e ients included in it.

Food for thought



Personalized nutrition es i ital

As consumers become more intricately aware of how their diets a ect thei health, they ill see p ucts an se ices that meet their needs and lifestyle. Nutritional advice is fast evolvin f a la ely static ass a et t eal ti e pe s nali e solutions. In fact, the separation between medicine and nutriti n is lu in as iet is ein inc easin ly ta ete t p e entin an ana in ch nic isease esea ch is lin in intestinal health an ic i e t e all ell ein an is t anslatin int c e cial pp tunities an api th

cc in t the SI , the alue f pe s nali e e icine l i e is e pecte t all n health an ell

ness is f ecast t ise y y f t he a et pp tunity is la e, an al ea y la e c p ati ns a e inin

f ces, i e , estle an Sa sun a e c lla atin t e el p a i ital health platf an the s see these pa tne

ships inc easin , pa ticula ly ith a inte net platf s such as Amazon, Alibaba, and JD.com.

he p ise f sta tups li e a it, a nut iti n tech c pany pa tne in ith a n esh an it it t eli e pe s nali e e i ence ase nut iti n, ste s f a ance p e icti e analytics, a a le ia n stic its, an api up ates in

ea a le techn l y an I sin l test esults an eal time data such as blood pressure etc., it provides daily food ui es, an in s in each f up, an pe s nali e ecipes

and menus.

S u ce etty I a es

ut iti nal a ice is fast e l in f a la ely static ass a et t eal ti e personalized solutions.

Food for thought


Chapter 6

Supply chain innovation

p ucti n has la e all the in ust ies in te s f i iti ati n, ut n t anymore.

S u ce etty I a es

hapte Supply chain inn ati n


st c nsu e s a e in the a a ut h the f they eat ets t the ta le u e us scan als an inci ents in l in

the contamination of food within supply chains have shattered c nsu e c nfi ence in the an cause c nsi e a le financial, political, and health costs. The WHO estimates that almost ne in pe ple fall ill e e y yea f eatin c nta inate

food.

any e n ents ha e passe la s t f ce fi s t i pleent t acea ility syste s that i entify ea sp ts an ena le

ha a us p ucts t e ith a n f the a et efficiently ut e uil in c nsu e t ust ta es ti e, an cli ate chan e inc eases the challen e a e , e hu i c n iti ns accele ate the th an sp ea f fun i in the en i n

ent his p ses an e istential th eat t the f syste s li e apples an c ee eans suscepti le t ca yin the

yc t ins p uce y fun al l s a e pa ticula ly at is

So the reliability and dependability of the traceability system are la ely at the e cy f the accu acy an efficiency f i entificati n an authenticati n techn l ies hey ena le cust e s t ta e int acc unt p uct uality an c nf ity ith safety an en i n ental stan a s hen a in pu chases e elpin p uct i entificati n an l cali ati n techn l ies

a ances the t acea ility syste Inn ati ns li e ist i ute le e techn l ies l c chain an the I sh ul st cpanies capa ility t t ac f , fi ht f au , an e uce health is s y inc easin the lu e an a aila ility f ata

t nly that, ut they sh ul help ani ati ns achie e the S s f n p e ty, e hun e , an ette health an ell ness als li e e el pin sustaina le cities an i p in life el ate e ui e a e esi n f the l al supply chain, a h lesale shi f t ay s ta e a e isp se ec n y t

a circular one. The estimates of the amount of food wasted l i e a e ell n n u hly ne thi f hat s p

uce is l st th u h sp ila e in the supply chain an ne e eaches inten e c nsu e s in an e i le state i e ise, the

has f ecast that if e eep p ucin an failin t p pe ly isp se f plastics at p e icte ates, the lu e f synthetics in the cean ill ut ei h the fish in it, p un f p un , y i centu y e iscuss this t pic fu the in the chapte i in Sustaina ly

Supe is ta in in ent y f merchanidise in a modern wareh use ith sac s c ntainin y produce such as beans and rice.



Three ways the Internet of hin s I is i pactin f

supply chains

he I is chan in the ay the l thin s a ut f Aside from its crucial role as an interface between data processin an p uce ase ha a e such as nes, self

i in t act s, an c p nit s, it c nt i utes e ually ia downstream innovation.

S a t the stats e uce the is f ea ns in the c l chain u in t ansp t an eli e y, an in ent y sens s f

a eh use ana e ent an s a t appliances eep t ac f nearly every food item in the monitored environment. Smart appliances ith these sens s ill ena le h es t e un efficiently an fa ily e e s t eep supplies st c e he ata they ene ate can als e use t ette p e ict cust e ders, so retailers and manufacturers can anticipate consumer nee s eithe at the ce y st e nline S a t c nsu e appliances will even alert their owners when they have a contaminated product in their home.

e a ple f this in p actice is a c in hile the e a e any i e ent physical techn l ies t c nnect p ucts, inclu in a c es, c es, an ta s, techn l y can enc e an ec e i ital inf ati n f

st an s eatin an applyin uni ue, e i le, a less a c es i ectly t f is an inn ati e ne t ene ati n

analytical techni ue It can ena le c nsu e s t ain full t anspa ency int the i in f p ucts hile p tectin cpany an s, e ucin f f au , an cuttin ecall c sts



hat is l c chain an h es it help

l c chain is a ist i ute ata ase that h l s ec s f i ital ata e ents in a ay that a es the ta pe esistant

hile pa ticipants in a l c chain ay access, inspect, a t the ata, they cann t alte elete hat al ea y e ists he

i inal inf ati n stays put an lea es a pe anent an pu lic inf ati n t ail f t ansacti ns, p i in a e ifia le ec f t ansacti ns an acti ities ccu in ac ss c ple

supply chains.

he ey a anta es f a l c chain net inclu e • Disintermediation: l c chain a es the cent ali e se e

less ele ant ee t pee t ansacti ns can ta e place ithut e si ht thi pa ty inte e iati n yet e ain p

tecte f c unte pa ty is s

• Security: he c ypt aphic natu e f l c chain t ansacti ns a es the net e secu e than t a iti nal ataases ecause hash alues p e ent any ali n use f

alte in the t ansacti ns

• Resilience: In a iti n t its i uta ility, l c chain nets a e esilient as they n t ha e a cent al p int f fail

u e ls , i en the enc ypte an chain li e natu e f the ata l c s, any p tential a a e t the ata ul n t

a ect ec s f hist ical t ansacti ns

• Lower costs: y eli inatin e ucin the nee f intee iates an the c sts ass ciate ith the , l c chain

net s can eatly e uce t ansacti n c sts he a ility t nit t ansacti ns in eal ti e, f e a ple, can e uce

the e t nee e t ec ncile ispute es luti ns

How blockchain will revolutionize food In a icultu e, l c chain can help fi inefficacies th u h applicati ns li e s a t c nt acts in such a eas as insu ance, t acea ility, an pay ents icultu e ase insu ance uilt n l c chain ith ey eathe inci ents an elate pay uts

lin e t s a t c nt acts can e hi hly e ecti e, a e ly eucin ti e t a et

Safety is another major food industry issue, with the ability to t ace p ucts th u h a l c chain le e ep esentin anthe l n te pp tunity Successful pil ts ha e een

launche th u h I s ype le e p ect t t ac p an the a icultu al p ucts in hina he i uta le natu e f

t ansacti ns n the l c chain le e als pens up applicati ns in elate hi h alue in ust ies li e the ine t a e, as

ell as a icultu e elate lan e ist ati ns

hinese c e ce iants li a a pa ent f a a an c e e plify h l c chain ac e t acea ility in the

supply chain can i p e c nsu e c nfi ence in the authenticity f f p ucts ei in ase c sta te y t acin eef f e chin, a c pany in Inne n lia a pince in n the n hina , t cust e s in ei in , Shan hai, an

uan h u

S allh l e fa e s a un the l face aps in t a iti nal finance an thus st u le t access fun in lac f p pe c e it hist ies, insufficient lan ne ship cu entati n, an the issues l c thei access t an l ans, an they a e

en f ce t fun s f ney len e s at uch hi he ates, if this pti n is e en a aila le ech sa y a icultu al ent ep eneu s n use l c chain t c eate in est ent t ens an aise fun s f thei a icultu al usinesses

S u ce etty I a es



Bioplastics crucial in the fight against pollutions the nee t c eate sustaina le ec f ien ly p ucts in

c eases, h c nsu e s a e pac a e an isp se f ust e e en inee e as ell i e a a le plastics c ul

l e the lu e f t ash in lan fills, e uce s, an cut down on the plastic debris in the ocean, which causes numerus p le s, f illin fish an a ine a als hen ista enly in este t eleasin t ic c p un s S a t pac

a in c ul als inc ease the shelf life f f esh f an e duce waste.

ecent ea th u h in p ucin plastics f cellul se li nin the y atte in plants is ne such p isin inn ation. These materials can be derived from nonfood plants such as iant ee an n n a inal lan n t suita le f f c ps f aste an a icultu al y p ucts that the ise se e n functi n l ae an ush ase alte

nati es ha e als aine in p pula ity ith the li es f I ea

s ith all ne techn l ies, any hu les ust e e c e ef e the ne plastics can e c e ciali e st is a i stacle n the is ini i in the a unt f lan an ate

use t p uce the e en if the li nin c es f aste, ate is nee e t c n e t it int plastic he s luti ns ill e ui e a c inati n f easu es, f e ulat y t lunta y

chan es in the ays s ciety uses an isp ses f plastics Still, the e e in eth s f p ucin i e a a le plastic ffe a pe fect e a ple f h eene s l ents an e e ecti e i catalysts can c nt i ute t ene atin a ci cula ec nomy in a major industry.

S u ce etty I a es



Digital channels reshaping food retailnti ely ne usiness els ha e e e e in ecent yea s hey e nst ate that c nsu e s, in pa ticula in y un e ene ati ns, place eate alue n instantane us access t

p ucts an se ices his n e an p inciple ill c ntinue t eshape f etail a atically uyin a ee s th f

ce ies at ne ti e is ec in a thin f the past futu e consumers will demand fresh produce and want it delivered now in the format in which they will consume it.

he f eli e y in ust y has e iste f a fe eca es, ia yell pa es an teleph nes the a ent f ile ph ne apps has t ansf e the in ust y int a la ely nline a et han s t the success f i e hailin platf s li e e an a , an the e e ence f l istics platf s, nline f

eli e y has chan e the ay f is eaten nsu e s n ha e e f pti ns than e e ef e, all at thei fin e tips

illennials an y un c nsu e s a e clea ly i in the t en hey e t t f u ti es as uch f nline pe ee as

th se e yea s l he shi t a sin le pe s n h useh l s is als fuelin this t en hina, he e f eli e y has cau ht fi e, has al st sin le pe s n h useh l s al ne

i en the enefits f cent ali e itchens an inc ease autati n, e in inne th u h f eli e y apps i ht

s n e a cheape pti n than p epa in f at h e hich c ul supe cha e the in ust y s th ates

In the l n un, the e e ence f inn ati e l istics s luti ns li e aut n us i s an nes ay fu the st the inust y s last ile c e a e nline f eli e y is the la est

se ent ithin the f inn ati n the e t ay, th in te s f e enues an fun in e e pect the se ent t c ntinue in than s t n in c nsu e i ati n f i ital se ices an la e e si es

S u ce etty I a es


Chapter 7

In estin in f innovation

hethe y u e a fa e l in f the latest tools to boost crop production sustainably, or a p fessi nal in est l in f the ne t leap in innovation, we believe there is no better time to in est in f an a icultu e

e eta le p cessin plant in ana aS u ce etty I a es

hapte In estin in f inn ati n


While the food supply chain has been around for centuries the nee f inn ati n e ains as eat as e e hethe y u e a fa e l in f the latest t ls t st c p p ucti n sustaina ly, a p fessi nal in est l in f the ne t leap in innovation, we believe there is no better time to invest in f an a icultu e s i ital t ansf ati n ta es h l an the supply chain inte ates e tically, pp tunities f in est

ent in the sect y n n t a iti nal in est s inc ease

a iti nal in est ent in a icultu e c nsiste f eal assets, a fun that in este in the he hy i natu e f a icultu al assets hich ha e the cha acte istics f th p pe ty an inf ast uctu e in est ents a es the ifficult t assess an

ana e, e ace atin thei hit iss natu e

nli e in p e i us phases f techn l ical e el p ent th u h, inn ati n this ti e is ein int uce p incipally th u h s a e an ata channels, an a ea fe e in ust y incu ents ha e e pe ience in s y u c nsi e in estin in the food supply chain, a tech startup, or the launch of your own, it s i p tant t un e stan s e a et i i sync asies

act y e pe atin a c n ey elt in a e eta le p cessin plant

Chapter7–Investinginfoodinnovation


Agritechfinancingbreaksrecords

Historically,95%ofagritechinnovationhasbeencommercial-izedviaM&Aastechnologieswereincorporatedintothein-dustrybyestablishedcompanieslikeJohnDeere,CaseNH,etc.Thesefirmshavebeenmarketmakersforinnovators,butthismodelisswiftlychanging.

Agritechstartupsenjoyedanotherrecordyearoffinancingin2018.AccordingtoresearchbyequitycrowdfundingplatformAgfunder,dealscompletedroseby43%y/ytoUSD16.9bnfromUSD11.8bnin2017.Upstreamanddownstreamseg-mentsgrewatasimilar43–44%y/ypacethatwasbroadbased.

Theagritechecosystemisbeginningtoscaleup.Inboth2017and2018,late-stagetransactionvolumesrose.Unlikeotherin-dustries,wherelate-stagefundinghasbeenontheriseandearly-stagefundingactivityhasbeenindecline,interestinseed-stagedealsintheagritechindustryremainssolid.Activity

roseatamid-teenpercentageratein2018,accountingfor803outof1,450dealsintheagritechindustry,accordingtoAgFunder,withdealvolumerisingby50%y/ytoUSD685m.

Byregion,theUS,China,andIndiaarethetopthreemarkets,respectively.Theyaccountforalmost80%ofglobalagritechfunding.Bysegment,thedownstreamonlinefooddeliverysegmentis,unsurprisingly,thelargestsegmentbyvalue;withinupstreamsegments,Farming4.0andplant-basedpro-tein companies continue to draw plenty of interest.

Asagritechcontinuestomatureasasector,Agfunderbelievesmorenine-figurevaluationsarelikelyattheearlystageforthemostpromisingapplications.Asinvestorsexplorecapital-lightsubsegmentswithinagritech,dealflowshavealsobeensolidin plant sciences and animal health startups.

Two breeds of startups

Onthestartupside,twoagritechtypeshaveemerged;thosethatdisruptandthosethatbuildonexistingtechnologies,forexample,whatJohnDeere,CaseNH,andothercorporationsaredoing.Theroleofcorporateventurecapitalinagritechre-mainscrucial,andagritechM&Ahascertainlypickedup,lead-ingtoincreasedinterest.

Mostcompaniesinagritecharestillquiteearlystageanddon’thavesignificantcashflowyet.Evenestablishedagri-corpora-tionsarejustbeginningtomakeacquisitionsratherthanpur-suein-houseR&D.Theeducationalcomponentofagritechisimportantforinvestorsingeneral,asthefielddoesn’tfitneatlyintotraditionalindustrysegmentslikebiotechorfin-tech, etc., where some investors feel more comfortable.

Beyond Meat and other nontraditional protein companies are benefitingfromaboomintheconsumptionofplant-basedproducts,primarilyindevelopednations.Industriesarebeingforcedtoevolvealongsideopportunisticinvestorswhocancapitalizeongrowthinthoseareas.Tyson’sannouncementthatitwillofferplant-basedburgersofitsownillustratesthattraditionalindustriesarebeingdisrupted.



itech in nu e s

US7,900

China3,500

India2,400

Brazil700

UK285

Fran

ce 2

22

Isra

el 1

85.5

Sing

apor

e 84

Aus

tral

ia 2

9

Irela

nd 7

9Global agritech investments by regionInvestment in USD m

2017 20182013 2014 20162015

18

14

12

8

0

4

16

10

2

6

Global funding to agritech startupsIn USD bn

2017 20182013 2014 20162015

10

8

0

4

2

6

Global funding to downstream agritech startupsIn USD bn

2017 20182013 2014 20162015

8

7

6

4

0

2

5

1

3

Global funding to upstream agritech startupsIn USD bn

Late DebtSeed A B C D

5,000

6,000

4,000

0

2,000

1,000

3,000

700

800

600

0

200

100

300

400

500

Financing in USD mn (le hand side) Deals (right hand side)

685

2,300

1,700

2,600

3,600

5,700

412

Overall 2018 agritech deal volume and activity by stage

S u ce un e , S, as f p il



How much could it all be worth?

Overall, we estimate the food innovation opportunity represents a S n a et y e e pect it t

e than fi ef l , at a , f S n in e i i e the a essa le a et int fi e a se ents e e pect the plant ase eat a et t e pan f S

n in t S n at the en f the ne t eca e as penet ati n ates inc ease f t u esti ates

ay p e c nse ati e if plant ase eat a pti n acceleates than s t inn ati n an inc easin c nsu e a a eness

a in is an the p isin se ent ithin that ti ef a e e anticipate it e pan in f a S n a et in

t S n espite a i teen , its penet ati n ates, hich e e pect t inc ease f t , a e

li ely t e ain uch l e than th se f the the i ital t ansf ati n t en s li e fintech an e c e ce

nline f eli e y is set t e the la est se ent, e panin f a a et th S n in t S n, a

i teen , acc in t u f ecasts e in a ets,

i p in l istics, an a st uctu al shi f f ine t nline f eli e y a e li ely t i e this th

u c ine in ust y f ecasts assu e a i teen that e c nsi e eas na le he ey nsi e is s t u esti ates inclu e sl e than e pecte a pti n f plantase eat in e e in a ets an l istical set ac s,

unfavorable economics in food delivery, and data security is s f a in

psi e is s inclu e i esp ea a pti n f plant ase eat spa e y illennials an c nsu e s, eate net effects in the f eli e y in ust y esultin in eate than epecte epeat e s, an hi he than anticipate efficiency ains in a in esultin in e e s

In estin in sustaina le f an a icultu e

We see the investment community, particularly within the fiel s f sustaina le, esp nsi le, an i pact in estin , is e nst atin an inc easin appetite f in estin in sus

taina le a icultu e an f syste s ac ss asset classes Sustaina le a icultu e efe s t a i e se a ay f fa in syste s that enhance the i i e sity f fa in lanscapes, improve soil health and the water cycle, and st en then the esilience f u al a a ian c unities

hese utc es als ali n ith Sustaina le e el pent als, hich sustaina le, esp nsi le, an i pact in

est s a e inc easin ly inte atin int in est ent ecisi na in f a e s u the e, hen ta in a t tal

p tf li app ach t sustaina le a icultu e, it p i es in

est s ith a c nst ucti e ay t apple ith the i est array of investment opportunities because each asset class p esents its n specific pp tunity set hethe financin s all scale l cal f syste s inte enin in la escale l al supply chains

In estin in sustaina le f an a icultu e can e naly f cuse , say in a fa lan fun a f f cuse

e t fun i e ise, it can e pa t f a e h listic app ach inte atin en i n ental, s cial, an e nance the es int in est ents that elates t cli ate, ate is , la an hu an i hts, an that has i ect i pacts n people and places.



I n e e Investments

S I n e e In est ents I se ies c ntains the atic in est ent i eas ase n l n te st uctural developments. Secular trends such as populati n th, a in , an inc ease u ani ati n c eate a a iety f l n e te in est ent pp tunities hese in est ent pp tunities a e in uence y the

inte play f techn l ical a ance ent, es u ce sca city, an s cietal chan es In est s illin t inest e ultiple usiness cycles can enefit f

p tential isp icin s c eate y the typically sh te te f cus f st c a ets

Visit ubs.com/lti to know more.

Agricultural yield

Consumer experience

Protein consumption

Water scarcity

Investment implicationsnli e the e at en s, the f inn ati n in ust y is

mostly represented by startups, business units that are part of a f c panies, an ecently liste c panies in fast

in in ust ies li e f eli e y an plant ase eat s a esult, t enefit f the t en , in est s sh ul i e sify

thei e p su e an n liste an unliste c panies ali e he in ust y is li ely t c ns li ate in the ne t th ee t fi e

yea s, in u ie , hich als p i es inte estin pp tunities from an M&A perspective.

2018 (in bn) 2030 (in bn)

CAGR (%)

How big is the addressable market?Revenue opportunity

Sources: Company reports, Bloomberg Intelligence, UBS estimates, as of June 2019

Seed treatment 13%

Total 135700 15%

Plant-based meat 28%4.6

6

85

25

Online food delivery 16%49.4

365

Farming 4.0 16%15

90

Seed science 9%60

135

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BahrainbytheCentralBankofBahrainanddoesnotundertakebankingorinvestmentbusinessactivitiesinBahrain.Therefore,clientshavenoprotectionunderlocalbankingandinvestmentserviceslawsandregulations.Brazil:ThispublicationisnotintendedtoconstituteapublicofferunderBrazilianlaworaresearchanalysisreportasperthedefinitioncontainedundertheComissãodeValoresMobiliários(“CVM”)Instruction598/2018.ItisdistributedonlyforinformationpurposestoclientsofUBSBrasilAdministradoradeValoresMobiliáriosLtda.and/orofUBSCon-sensoInvestimentosLtda.,entitiesregulatedbyCVM.Canada:InCanada,thispublicationisdistributedtoclientsofUBSWealthManagementCanadabyUBSInvestmentManagementCanadaInc..China:ThisreportispreparedbyUBSSwitzerlandAGoritsoffshoresubsidiaryoraffiliate(collectivelyas“UBSOffshore”).UBSOffshoreisanentityincorporatedoutofChinaandisnotlicensed,supervisedorregulatedinChinatocarryoutbankingorsecuritiesbusiness.TherecipientshouldnotcontacttheanalystsorUBSOffshorewhichproducedthisreportforadviceastheyarenotlicensedtoprovidesecuritiesinvestmentadviceinChina.UBSInvestmentBank(includingResearch)hasitsownwhollyindependentresearchandviewswhichattimesmayvaryfromtheviewsofUBSGlobalWealthManagement.Thisreportshallnotberegardedasprovidingspecificsecuritiesrelatedanalysis.TherecipientshouldnotusethisdocumentorotherwiserelyonanyoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportinmakinginvestmentdecisionsandUBStakesnoresponsibilityinthisregard.Czech Republic:UBSisnotalicensedbankintheCzechRepublicandthusisnotallowedtoprovideregulatedbankingorinvestmentservicesintheCzechRepublic.PleasenotifyUBSifyoudonotwishtoreceiveanyfurthercorrespondence. Denmark:ThispublicationisnotintendedtoconstituteapublicofferunderDanishlaw.It isdistributedonlyforinformationpurposestoclientsofUBSEuropeSE,DenmarkBranch,filialafUBSEuropeSE,withplaceofbusinessatSanktAnnaePlads13,1250Copenhagen,Denmark,registeredwiththeDanishCommerceandCompaniesAgency,underNo.38172433.UBSEuropeSE,DenmarkBranch,filialafUBSEuropeSEissubjecttothejointsupervisionoftheEuropeanCentralBank(“ECB”),theGermanCentralBank(DeutscheBundesbank),theGermanFederalFinancialServicesSupervisoryAuthority (Bundesanstalt fürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht),aswellasoftheDanishFinancialSupervisoryAuthority(Finanstilsynet),towhichthispublicationhasnotbeensubmittedforapproval.UBSEuropeSEisacreditinstitutionconstitutedunderGermanlawintheformofaSocietasEuropaea,dulyauthorizedbytheECB.France:ThispublicationisdistributedbyUBS(France)S.A.,French“sociétéanonyme”withsharecapitalof€132.975.556,69,boulevardHaussmannF-75008Paris,R.C.S.ParisB421255670,toitsclientsandprospects.UBS(France)S.A.isaproviderofinvestmentservicesdulyauthorizedaccordingtothetermsofthe“CodeMonétaireetFinancier”,regulatedbyFrenchbankingandfinancialauthoritiesasthe“AutoritédeContrôlePrudentieletdeRésolution”.Germany: This publication is not intendedtoconstituteapublicofferunderGermanlaw.ItisdistributedonlyforinformationpurposestoclientsofUBSEuropeSE,Germany,withplaceofbusinessatBockenheimerLandstrasse2-4,60306FrankfurtamMain.UBSEuropeSEisacreditinstitutionconstitutedunderGermanlawintheformofaSocietasEuropaea,dulyauthorizedbytheEuropeanCentralBank(“ECB”),andsupervisedbytheECB,theGermanCentralBank(DeutscheBundesbank)andtheGermanFederalFinancialServicesSupervisoryAuthority(BundesanstaltfürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht),towhichthis publication has not been submitted for approval. 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Italy:ThispublicationisnotintendedtoconstituteapublicofferunderItalianlaw.ItisdistributedonlyforinformationpurposestoclientsofUBSEuropeSE,SuccursaleItalia,withplaceofbusinessatViadelVecchioPolitecnico,3-20121Milano.UBSEuropeSE,Suc-cursaleItaliaissubjecttothejointsupervisionoftheEuropeanCentralBank(“ECB”),theGermanCentralBank(DeutscheBundesbank),theGer-manFederalFinancialServicesSupervisoryAuthority(BundesanstaltfürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht),aswellasoftheBankofItaly(Bancad’Italia)andtheItalianFinancialMarketsSupervisoryAuthority(CONSOB–CommissioneNazionaleperleSocietàelaBorsa),towhichthispublicationhasnotbeensubmittedforapproval.UBSEuropeSEisacreditinstitutionconstitutedunderGermanlawintheformofaSocietasEuropaea,dulyauthorized by the ECB. Jersey:UBSAG,JerseyBranch,isregulatedandauthorizedbytheJerseyFinancialServicesCommissionfortheconductofbanking,fundsandinvestmentbusiness.WhereservicesareprovidedfromoutsideJersey,theywillnotbecoveredbytheJerseyregulatoryregime.UBSAG,JerseyBranchisabranchofUBSAGapubliccompanylimitedbyshares, incorporatedinSwitzerlandwhoseregisteredofficesareatAeschenvorstadt1,CH-4051BaselandBahnhofstrasse45,CH8001Zurich.UBSAG,JerseyBranch’sprincipalplacebusinessis1,IFCJersey,StHelier,Jersey,JE23BX.Luxembourg:ThispublicationisnotintendedtoconstituteapublicofferunderLuxembourglaw.ItisdistributedonlyforinformationpurposestoclientsofUBSEuropeSE,LuxembourgBranch,withplaceofbusinessat33A,AvenueJ.F.Kennedy,L-1855Luxembourg.UBSEuropeSE,LuxembourgBranchissubjecttothejointsupervisionoftheEuropeanCentralBank(“ECB”),theGermanCentralbank(DeutscheBundesbank),theGermanFederalFinancialServicesSupervisoryAuthority(BundesanstaltfürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht),aswellasoftheLux-embourgsupervisoryauthority(CommissiondeSurveillanceduSecteurFinancier),towhichthispublicationhasnotbeensubmittedforapproval.UBSEuropeSEisacreditinstitutionconstitutedunderGermanlawintheformofaSocietasEuropaea,dulyauthorizedbytheECB.Mexico: This information isdistributedbyUBSAsesoresMéxico,S.A.deC.V. (“UBSAsesores”),anaffiliateofUBSSwitzerlandAG, incorporatedasanon-independentinvestmentadvisorundertheSecuritiesMarketLawduetotherelationwithaForeignBank.UBSAsesoresisaregulatedentityanditissubjecttothesupervisionoftheMexicanBankingandSecuritiesCommission(“CNBV”),whichexclusivelyregulatesUBSAsesoresregardingtherenderingofportfoliomanagement,aswellasonsecuritiesinvestmentadvisoryservices,analysisandissuanceofindividualinvestmentrecom-mendations,sothattheCNBVhasnosurveillancefacultiesnormayhaveoveranyotherserviceprovidedbyUBSAsesores.UBSAsesoresisregis-teredbeforeCNBVunderRegistrynumber30060.YouarebeingprovidedwiththisUBSpublicationormaterialbecauseyouhaveindicatedtoUBSAsesoresthatyouareaSophisticatedQualifiedInvestorlocatedinMexico.Thecompensationoftheanalyst(s)whopreparedthisreportisdeter-minedexclusivelybyresearchmanagementandseniormanagementofanyentityofUBSGrouptowhichsuchanalyst(s)renderservices.Nigeria: UBSSwitzerlandAGand itsaffiliates (UBS)arenot licensed,supervisedorregulated inNigeriabytheCentralBankofNigeriaortheNigerianSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionanddonotundertakebankingorinvestmentbusinessactivitiesinNigeria.Portugal:UBSSwitzerlandAGisnotlicensedtoconductbankingandfinancialactivitiesinPortugalnorisUBSSwitzerlandAGsupervisedbytheportugueseregulators(BankofPortugal“BancodePortugal”andPortugueseSecuritiesExchangeCommission“ComissãodoMercadodeValoresMobiliários”).Singapore: This materialwasprovidedtoyouasaresultofarequestreceivedbyUBSfromyouand/orpersonsentitledtomaketherequestonyourbehalf.Should

youhavereceivedthematerialerroneously,UBSasksthatyoukindlydestroy/deleteitandinformUBSimmediately.ClientsofUBSAGSingaporebranchareaskedtopleasecontactUBSAGSingaporebranch,anexemptfinancialadviserundertheSingaporeFinancialAdvisersAct(Cap.110)andawholesalebanklicensedundertheSingaporeBankingAct(Cap.19)regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore,inrespectofanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,theanalysisorreport.Spain:ThispublicationisnotintendedtoconstituteapublicofferunderSpanishlaw. It is distributed only for information purposes to clients of UBS Europe SE, Sucursal en España, with place of business at Calle María de Molina 4,C.P.28006,Madrid.UBSEuropeSE,SucursalenEspañaissubjecttothejointsupervisionoftheEuropeanCentralBank(“ECB”),theGermanCentralbank(DeutscheBundesbank),theGermanFederalFinancialServicesSupervisoryAuthority(BundesanstaltfürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsi-cht),aswellasoftheSpanishsupervisoryauthority(BancodeEspaña),towhichthispublicationhasnotbeensubmittedforapproval.Additionallyitisauthorizedtoprovideinvestmentservicesonsecuritiesandfinancialinstruments,regardingwhichitissupervisedbytheComisiónNacionaldelMercadodeValoresaswell.UBSEuropeSE,SucursalenEspañaisabranchofUBSEuropeSE,acreditinstitutionconstitutedunderGermanlawinthe form of a Societas Europaea, duly authorized by the ECB. Sweden:ThispublicationisnotintendedtoconstituteapublicofferunderSwedishlaw.ItisdistributedonlyforinformationpurposestoclientsofUBSEuropeSE,SwedenBankfilial,withplaceofbusinessatRegeringsgatan38,11153Stockholm,Sweden,registeredwiththeSwedishCompaniesRegistrationOfficeunderReg.No516406-1011.UBSEuropeSE,SwedenBankfilialissubjecttothejointsupervisionoftheEuropeanCentralBank(“ECB”),theGermanCentralbank(DeutscheBundesbank),theGermanFederalFinancialServicesSupervisoryAuthority(BundesanstaltfürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht),aswellasoftheSwedishsupervisoryauthority(Finansinspektionen),towhichthispublicationhasnotbeensubmittedforapproval.UBSEuropeSEisacreditinstitutionconstitutedunderGermanlaw in the form of a Societas Europaea, duly authorized by the ECB. Taiwan:ThismaterialisprovidedbyUBSAG,TaipeiBranchinaccordancewithlawsofTaiwan,inagreementwithorattherequestofclients/prospects.UAE:UBSisnotlicensedintheUAEbytheCentralBankofUAEorbytheSecurities&CommoditiesAuthority.TheUBSAGDubaiBranchislicensedintheDIFCbytheDubaiFinancialServicesAuthorityasanauthorisedfirm.UK:ThisdocumentisissuedbyUBSWealthManagement,adivisionofUBSAGwhichisauthorisedandregulatedbytheFinancialMarketSupervisoryAuthorityinSwitzerland.IntheUnitedKingdom,UBSAGisauthorisedbythePrudentialRegulationAuthorityandissubjecttoregula-tionbytheFinancialConductAuthorityandlimitedregulationbythePrudentialRegulationAuthority.DetailsabouttheextentofregulationbythePrudentialRegulationAuthorityareavailablefromusonrequest.AmemberoftheLondonStockExchange.ThispublicationisdistributedtoretailclientsofUBSWealthManagement.

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The food revolution - UBS · Chapter 1 – On the cusp of revolution July 2019 – The food...

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