Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050 (ET 2050)

Philippe Doucet

VRP Internationaal lezingenavond 25 June 2012 - Brussels

The ESDP process: 1989-1999, 14 ministerial meetings

ESDP First Official Draft (Noordwijk, 1997): “What needs to be done and where?”

“What needs to be done and where?”: no answer...

• in the Territorial Agenda 2007 (adopted in 2007 in Leipzig)

• in the Territorial Agenda 2020 (adopted in 2011 in Gödöllő)

• in the Baltic Sea Region and Danube Region Strategies

• in the Green Paper on Territorial Cohesion

But some attempts were made, for example:

Europe 2030 (Conference of Peripheral and Maritime Areas CPMR , 2002)

Eurocities: European Territorial Vision and Framework (ETVF) “Giving Spatial Expression to the Concept of Territorial Cohesion”

Benelux Structural Outline, NWE Spatial Vision

All these exercises were tricky,

and no formal attempt has ever been made in the framework of the EU economic, social and territorial cohesion policy.

However, the ESPON 2006 programme, launched in 2002, was meant to provide technical support to the Territorial Agenda process, hence to contribute to a geographically differentiated policy approach.

ESPON 2006 = “European Spatial Planning Observation Network”.

ESPON 2013 = “European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion”.

ESPON 2006, Project 3.2 : “Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe”.

ESPON Project 3.2 (published May 2007)

ESPON Project 3.2

“Roll-back scenario”

ESPON 2006 Project 3.2 Balance Sheet

+ a very stimulating first attempt to communicate the ESPON results

+ consistent scenarios, based on a synthesis of the ESPON 2006 projects and many other sources

+ geographically differentiated picture of some possible policy choices

- limited communication with ESPON outsiders

- no validation process with (EU) policy makers

Goal: supporting policy makers in formulating a long-term integrated and coherent VISION for the development of the EU territory from 2010 up to 2050.

ESPON 2013 Programme: ET2050 Project

ET 2050 stands for: « Scenarios and Visionfor the European Territory in 2050 (ET 2050) »

Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)

Politically-driven (what would we like to happen?)

ET2050 Methodology

Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)

Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)

ET2050 Methodology

ET2050 work plan

Late June 2012

Tasks already performed (First Interim Report)

1. Analysis of Present State (16 reports)

• By Sectors (demography, economy, energy, transport, land-uses, environment, governance) • By Territories (9 macro-zones covering EU+NC) • By European Policies (Cohesion, Agricultural, Transport, Environment…)

2. Critical Bifurcations ahead (aprox. 25)

3. Definition of Key Directions (aprox. 15 Trends + 15 Policies)

4. Comparison of Baseline Scenarios (aprox. 100 future-oriented studies)

5. Foresight exercise (indicators at World/EU scale (1950-2050, 10+50 indicators)

6. Forecast exercise (indicators at NUTS3)

• Sectoral models (MULTIPOLES, MASST, MOSAIC-TT, METRONAMICA) and Integrated model (SASI)

7. Analysis of results and adjustment of Baseline Scenario

Baseline Reference World Indicators Overall EU role in the World 1950-2050 (Europe's share in the World)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Population GDP TradeTourism Energy consumption CO2

Wel

lfare

(in

ave

rage

)

2012 20502020

Break-upWorse-case Scenario for ST (All Lost)

Limited Federalism Limited Reforms / Likely Scenario (Most Win)

1992

Federalism (Superstate)Structural Reforms / Voluntarist Scenario

Euro-crisis

Critical Bifurcation

Wel

lfare

(in

ave

rage

)

2012 20502020

Break-upWorse-case Scenario (All Lost)

Baseline BAU (no Reforms) / Consensus Scenario

Limited Federalism Limited Reforms / Likely Scenario

1992

Federalism (Superstate)Structural Reforms / Voluntarist Scenario

Euro-crisis

Critical Bifurcation

VISION Scenarios

Scientifically-driven

Politically-driven

The building process of the scenarios and the Territorial VISION should be cyclical and dynamic allowing various key-players to take an active part in the development and testing of the VISION and scenarios

The Vision-scenarios iterative process

Important to address key-values and policy goals at an early stage of the ET2050 project implementation process

Step MC & DG Regio

Policy makers

Private sector

Scientific experts

1. Present State

2. Baseline Scenario

3. Territorial Scenarios

4. Territorial Vision

5. Mid-term Targets & Pathways

Participatoty process: involvement of various categories of stakeholders

Proposal made in the project specifications

…but this proposal has been reconsidered

1st round of consultations: questionnaire

1. What key EU policy issues should deserve particular attention in the ET2050 scenario building exercise?

2. Should the scenarios focus on the possible evolution of the European territorial structure and EU policy-content, or also on possible change in the area of EU governance?

3. What major trends / policy developments should be taken into account when elaborating the ET 2050 scenarios? Do you see some possible course of events that could emerge in the long run and whose importance is currently underestimated or simply ignored?

4. What kind of possible EU paradigms should guide the elaboration of the scenarios and the Territorial Vision? What ideal European territory would you dream of for the 2050 time horizon?

5. What recommendations would you like to express concerning the ET2050 scenario and Territorial Vision elaboration process?

Consultation outcome

1. Many stimulating views, including some lateral thinking (brainstorming was encouraged)

2. Emphasis on various recurrent topics: demography (as “heavy trend”), energy, climate change, etc.

4. EU2020 objectives (sustainable, inclusive and smart growth) regarded as key goals, but also territorial integration

5. Emphasis on the evolution of EU policy making and governance, including policy integration

6. More unusual paradigms were put forward more than once: happiness, beautiful Europe, etc.

3. Vision Geographic scope: EU 27 too narrow. Extend to Euromed (rest of Europe + Mediterranean countries)

ET2050 Consortium

MCRIT, LPAndreu UliedOriol BioscaRafael Rodrigo

TERSYN(Jacques Robert)

IGEATPhilippe Doucet Moritz LennertValérie BiotJean-Michel Decroly

RKKIvan IllesKatalin Süle

S&WMichael WegenerKlaus Spiekermann

POLIMIRoberto Camagni Roberta Capello Ugo Fratesi

IOMMarek KupiszewskiDorota Kupiszewska

RIKSJaspers de VlietHedwig van Delden

NordregioAlexandre Dubois

University of Thessaly (UTH)Harry Coccosis

WSEJacek Szlachta

ISISCarlo Sessa

ERSILIA Jaume Jorba

ESPON CU

Sara FerraraMarjan van Herwijnen

Sounding Board

Patrick SalezKarl Peter Schon

Please visit: www.et2050.eu

Thank you for your attention!