Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050 ESPON MC 5th December 2013 Vilnius.
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Transcript of Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050 ESPON MC 5th December 2013 Vilnius.
Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050
ESPON MC5th December 2013 Vilnius
Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050
Andreu Ulied, MCRIT, Lead Partner
ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050
ESPON MC5th December 2013 Vlinius
ET2050 Consortium
From Project Specifications:
The ESPON Monitoring Committee, DG Regio and the ESPON Coordination Unit wish to start a territorial vision-building process that involves relevant stakeholders at European, national and regional level,having 2050 as time horizon
Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)
Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)
ET2050 Methodology
ET2050 Forecast Models
Demography
MULTIPOLES (2010-2030)Cohort-component, hierarchical, multiregional, supranational model of population dynamics (up to 2030)
ESPON at NUTS2 IOM
Economy MASST3 (2010-2030) Econometric: social, macroeconomic andTerritorial (up to 2030)
ESPON at NUTS2 POLIMI
TransportMOSAIC (2010-2030)Integrated modal split and traffic assignment based on TRANSTOOLS OD trip matrices(up to 2030)
EU27 at NUTS2 MCRIT
Land-useMETRONAMICA (2010-2050)Spatial and dynamic land use model that Uses constrained cellular automata to allocate land-uses (up to 2050)
EU27 at Cells 1 km2 RIKS
Integrated SASI (2010-2050)Dynamic System (up to 2050)
ESPON and Western Balkans at NUTS3
S&W
Population Change 2010-2030 by MULTIPOLES
Population: from 514 to 530 inh.
GDP Growth 2010-2030 (Baseline) by MASST3
GDP a.a.: 1,89 %45 regions bellow 1,00 %
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Germany Trade in M€
export - extraEU27 export - intraEU27 import - extraEU27 import - intraEU27
Trade by companies located in Germany (M€)
EUROSTAT
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Spain Trade in M€
export - extraEU27 export - intraEU27 import - extraEU27 import - intraEU27
Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)
Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030
Loosing Population
Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030
Loosing Population and
growing less that EU average
Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030
Loosing Population
Loosing Population and
growing less that EU average
Growing less that EU average
Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030
Loosing Population
Loosing Population
Loosing Population and
growing less that EU average
Growing less that EU average
Growing more that EU average
Increasing Polarisation on Global Gateways
Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030
A
European Territorial Strategy A : Promotion of Global Cities
B
European Territorial Strategy B: Promotion of Networks of Cities
C
European Territorial Strategy C: Promotion of Rural and Peripheral Regions
Scenarios 2030, the Crisis Aftermath
Roberto Camagni, POLIMIESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050
4rd December 2013 Vlinius
Summary of assumptions in the scenarios
• “Baseline scenario: No change in economic fundamentals and structure; no change in policies
• A: “Megas” scenario: Market driven scenario; budget reduced for cohesion policies; concentration of investments in European large cities.
• B: “Cities” scenario: Present welfare system reinforced; budget maintained for cohesion policies; concentration of investments in second rank cities.
• C: “Regions” scenario: Strong public welfare system; budget significantly increased for cohesion policies; concentration of investments in rural and cohesion area
21
22
Conclusions on aggregate GDP growth (2030)
• New 12 countries grow more with respect to Old 15 countries, but less than before.
• The B “Cities” scenario is the most expansionary: territorial capital is better exploited than in the other scenarios
• New 12 countries grow less in the C “Regions” scenario. .
Conclusions on Regional Disparities in the Baseline
23
.05
.1.1
5
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year
Total Theil index Between Country Theil indexWithin Country Theil index
Total regional disparities willincrease
In the past 20 years convergence among EU countries could more than offset increases in intra-national disparities
This will not happen in the future (and is already visible during the present crisis)
Conclusions on National Disparities in the Baseline
24
Eurostat
MASST3
0.135
0.140
0.145
0.150
0.155
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Baseline scenario
Megas scenario
Cities scenario
Regions scenario
Total Disparities in Scenarios
“Cities” Scenario is the most cohesive! ”Megas” Scenario is less cohesive
Tot
al D
ispa
ritie
s
A “megas”
B “cities”
C “regions”
Between Countries Disparities in the scenarios
0.084
0.086
0.088
0.090
0.092
0.094
0.096
0.098
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Baseline scenario
Megas scenario
Cities scenario
Regions Scenario
C “regions”
B “cities” A “megas”
Inside Countries Disparities (Theil Index by Scenario) )
0.040
0.045
0.050
0.055
0.060
0.065
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Baseline scenario
Megas scenario
Cities scenario
Regions scenario
“Regions” scenario is the most cohesive, as expected, followed by the “Cities”
C “regions”
B “cities”
A “megas”
Sensitivity analysis on the Baseline Scenario
Baseline is not meant to be the most likely scenario.
A sensitivity analysis was run, changing single exogenous assumptions inside the MASST model:
1. Higher internal inflation rates in New 12 Countries with respect to Old 15: higher control on wages, productivity external competitiveness
2. Increased tax rates in “vicious” countries (too high public debt): lower growth potential
3. Higher FDI increase in New 12 countries: higher growth? Not proved: new investments generate higher imports)
Sensitivity analysis: lower inflation rates in NMCs
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
2012 2030
Decreased inflation in New 12 member countries
baseline T
baseline Tbc
baseline Twc
Experiment T
Experiment Tbc
Experiment Twc
Note: Inflation in New 12 countries is lowered from 5% (baseline) to 3%. Baseline assumption for Old15 member countries is 2.5%.
This lever has strong effects on growth rates in NMCs; new assunptions generate a strong decrease in inter-national disparities and a light increase in tot. disparities
------ Dotted lines refer to the Baseline Scenario
Total reg. disparities
Between-country
Within country disparities
Higher taxation in wide-public debt countries
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
2012 2030
Increased tax rate in vicious countries
baseline T
baseline Tbc
baseline Twc
Experiment T
Experiment Tbc
Experiment Twc
This measure generates higher inter-national disparities ----- Baseline scenario
Total disparities
Within-country
Between-country
Scenarios 2050
Klaus Spiekermann, S&WESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050
4rd December 2013 Vlinius
Exploratory Scenarios & Variants for 2010-2050
Spatial orientation ofthe scenarios
Extreme Framework conditions
0Baseline
1Economic
decline
2Technologic
progress
3Energy/ClimateCosts
Promotion of global regions A0 A1 A2 A3
Promotion of urban regions B0 B1 B2 B3
Promotion of rural and peripheral regions
C0 C1 C2 C3
Baseline Scenario
The
A (MEGAs)
B (Cities)
C (Regions)
1.0 %
0.5
0.25%
of total EUStructuralFunds
European Funds Allocation across NUTS3
Difference toBaseline Scenario(%) 2051
Scenario A:GDP per capitaDifferenceto BaselineScenario2051
Difference toBaseline Scenario(%) 2051
Scenario B:GDP per capitaDifferenceto BaselineScenario2051
Difference toBaseline Scenario(%) 2051
Scenario C:GDP per capitaDifferenceto BaselineScenario2051
Regional disparities reduced by funds allocation
C2
B2
GDP growth depens on Framework Conditions
C2
B2
C2
B2
Summary comparison
Scenarios Policy Comparison
Participatory process towards Vision 2050
ValerieBiot, IGEATESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050
4rd December 2013 Vlinius
VISION Scenarios
Scientifically-driven exercice
Politically-driven process
Inspiring policy making by territorial foresight
Process towards the European Territorial Vision
• Scientific input from the scenario exercise
• Review of European and World strategies & policies
• Interaction with ESPON MC
• Interaction with Stakeholders
Brussels, 28 September 2012 Kraków, 29-30 November 2011 Aalborg , 13-14 June 2012
Paphos, 4-6 December 2012
ESPON Monitoring Committee Workshops
Dublin, 12-14 June 2013
A B
C
A B
C
A European Territorial Vision 2050
Carlo Sessa, ISISESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050
4rd December 2013 Vlinius
Outline of the European Territorial Vision
• Values and policy paradigms
• Europe in the World
• Europe and its Neighborhoods
• Changes for Europe as a whole
• The Future of the European Territory
• European Territorial Governance
2050 Vision: summing up framework elementsNew borders of the EU: Deep and sustainable democracy in an enlarged EU andEFTA space
Co-development with Neighbouring Countries (namely the Euro-Mediterranean)
Technology induced changes: «everywhere connectivity» will change our social, learning and work, manufacturing, energy, daily habits and mobility towards more flexible time use and polycentric landscapes
Demographic, economic and social changes: ageing everywhere in the world, except in Africa (especially SSA), deceleration of growth and trade of goods, more services & intangibles, «smartphone»-centred lifestyle, socio-ecological transition towards green and blue economy, within Europe, a more educated & mobile & Creative workforce and diversified jobs.
Energy, Transport and climate changes: «low» but not «post-carbon» Europe; smart and sustainable transport; adaptation to climate change (mitigation is not enough).
2050 Vision: summing up territorial key elements
EU governance changes: EU economic recovery heading to more integration («out of need, not out of love»), but with a lean model
Paradigm shifts: qualitative more than quantitative growth and productivity concepts, efficient spending on education, health and other territorial services (outcomes measured with beyond GDP indicators). Convergence of GDP is no more the «totem»/paradigm indicator, territorial efficiency/diversity and territorial cohesion objectives are the new totems.
Polycentric development: More connectivity within and across different urban regions’ layers: large cities (less «Pentagon-centric» network), medium-to-small networks of cities, compact cities. Urban sprawl is halted. More «rurban regions», but also revitilized «bioregions»
2050 Vision: summing up territorial key elements
A new Cohesion Strategy:
•Complementarity between EU territorial cohesion funds and other EU solidarity funds (to prevent financial crisis, to enable energy interdependence, EU border management solidarity).
•Place-based approach in the different functional regions of Europe, within and across the national borders.
•Territorial capital and European public goods agenda, based on high-level policy negotiation and agreed criteria of EU-wide relevance, place-based nature and verifiability (with “beyond GDP” impact assessment indicators)
Which EU Cohesion Policy after 2020?
EU Cohesion Policy Reform after 2020
Place-based territorial approach
(too complicated for the EU level to
master)?
Sectoral approach for funding & monitoring
infrastructure (e.g. energy, transport) and social (e.g.education, health) investments?
Purely «solidarity» approach
(EU funding MS to compensate for extra-costs of
implementing EU common priorities)?
How to blend these approaches in the context of a more integrated EU?
EU has to cope with global and territorial challenges, while closing the democratic gap between the EU and the European citizens
2020
2030
2050
A « New Generation » of Cohesion Policies
Jacek Szlachta, WSEESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050
4rd December 2013 Vlinius
Europe will successfully manage to overcome negative trends ahead (rural depopulation, growing regional disparities, not efficient policy making...) and valorisethe assets of the different cities and regions
The Vision for 2050 assumes a Successful Europe
EU Cohesion Policy 2014-2020 is necessary to achieve key values proposed by Territorial Vision 2050: Deep and sustainable democracy, Sustainable development, Well being and quality of life, Solidarity, Territorial efficiency, Territorial cohesion.
Cohesion Policy matters to achieve the Vision
• Using the concept “more for less” – declining budget and widening scope of intervention (competitiveness and cohesion)
• Facing growing disparities after 2008 – weak and peripheral regions more fragile to external shocks than strong and central regions
But… Cohesion Policy in 2014-2020 (1):
• Observing different development trajectories of European Union during economic crises Northern, Southern, Western and Eastern
• Testing new territorial tools concerning urban policy, local development, Territorial Impact Assessment etc.
But… Cohesion Policy in 2014-2020 (2):
• Facing critical development in neighbouring countries from south and east (Frontex and partnership) what impacts border regions
• Facing growing administrative burden for implementing authorities
• Being unable to establish necessary relations with intervention within second pillar of Common Agriculture Policy
But… Cohesion policy in 2014-2020 (3):
•Regional and National institutional empowerment •Place-based focus & open endogenous development
•Sensitivity to macro-economic cycles
•Focus on local and regional infrastructure
•Land-Use regulatory instruments in vulnerable areas
•Productive investments in Neighboring Countries
How Cohesion policies may be reformed in the long-run?
COTER 9th October 2013DGREGIO EC, 25 June 2013
European Parliament, 25 June 2013
Stakeholders, 11 October 2013
Mrs. Hubner, 26 February 2013 22 Nov 2012 in Warsaw
European Commission, Parliament and Committee of Regions
“Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit
-and this is what I call adventure”
Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”
Further information:
www.espon.eu
www.et2050.eu (working documents)