The effects of climate change on international migration patterns. Case study: Cambodia

7/30/2019 The effects of climate change on international migration patterns. Case study: Cambodia

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The effects of climate change on international migration patterns

Case study Cambodia

Cosmina Ionela Pulbere

Department of History, International and Social Studies

Aalborg University

A thesis submitted for the Master degree of

Development and international relations

June 2012
mailto:[email protected]://www.grs.cgs.aau.dk/Contact+us/http://www.aau.dk/http://www.aau.dk/http://www.grs.cgs.aau.dk/Contact+us/mailto:[email protected]


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Abstract

Climate change is one of the major issues in the contemporary society. Its

effects are multiple, and started to be felt, with human migration at the

highest concern. By the middle of the century, estimates show no less than

200 million people to be displaced by extreme climate events.

However, the impact is not distributed evenly and varies significantly from

country to country along with the geographical and socio-economical con-text.

Situated in the Greater Mekong Subregion, Cambodia is one of the 16 most

vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. Its vulnerability is en-

forced by the consequences of decades of civil war and by the high reliance

of its population on subsistence agriculture.

Despite not acting as a direct single determinant of migration, climate

change represents an extra burden for the already impoverished people that

have little option but going abroad to seek for employment.

In the climate change-migration nexus, much of the focus is on displace-

ment. This paper is an attempt to capture other possible scenarios on how

climate change can shape cross-border mobility. Cambodias situation is

analyzed in order to identify the forces that enhance vulnerability and the

adaptation means, with migration as the main focus. The problem formula-

tion How is climate change affecting the international migration patterns

in Cambodia? is answered by reviewing, analyzing and juxtaposing the ex-

isting literature both on climate change and migration. Special attention is

given to the agricultural sector as a linkage element between the two central

concepts.

The findings of this paper may represent the basis for further empirical

research in order to enforce the connection between climate change and

migration and to provide suggestions for policy makers and development

workers in the field.


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Acknowledgements

I would like to express my sincere thankfulness to my supervisor Timothy

Shaw for his support and guidance throughout my master thesis writing.

I am grateful for his dedication and for his interest in helping me with

information, methodological recommendations and moral support.

Likewise, I would like to thank to my internship supervisor Brett Dickson

for his contribution to my knowledge and understanding of Cambodias

migration situation.

I am also thankful to Romain Sacchi for his help on the editing part and

Bereket Abayneh for sharing interesting ideas and useful suggestions for thewriting process.


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Contents

List of Figures v

List of Tables vii

List of acronyms ix

1 Introduction 1

2 Methodology 5

2.1 Problem formulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

2.2 Conceptual framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

2.3 Choice of theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

2.3.1 Migration as adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

2.3.2 Fragile states . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

2.3.3 The new economics of migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

2.4 Empirical data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

2.5 Limitations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

3 Theoretical framework 153.1 Migration as adaptation model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

3.2 Fragile states . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

3.3 The new economics of migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

4 Climate change in Cambodia: Background information 21

4.1 Assessing the evidence: climate patterns and vulnerabilities . . . . . . . 21

4.1.1 Floods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

4.1.2 Droughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

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CONTENTS

4.2 Institutional framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

4.3 Impact on agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

5 International migration in Cambodia 33

5.1 Migration in the Greater Mekong Sub Region (GMS) . . . . . . . . . . . 33

5.2 Cambodias international migration profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

5.2.1 Destination countries for emigration from Cambodia . . . . . . . 36

5.2.1.1 Migration to Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

5.2.1.2 Migration to Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

5.2.1.3 Migration to Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

5.2.2 Irregular migration from Cambodia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

6 Analysis 43

6.1 State fragility and vulnerability to climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

6.2 The role of remittances in supplementing the loss of income . . . . . . . 47

6.3 The emergence of environmental migration in Cambodia . . . . . . . . . 50

7 Conclusion and recommendations 53

7.1 Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Bibliography 57

A Map of the GMS countries 59

B Rice cultivation in Cambodia 61

C Age pyramid of Cambodia 63

D Basic economic and demographic indicators for GMS economies 65

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List of Figures

3.1 Modified model of migration in response to climate change . . . . . . . . 16

4.1 Rice exports by major exporters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

4.2 Cambodia Mean Temperature Anomaly Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

4.3 Climate Hazards South East Asia. Source Yusuf and Francisco 2009 . . 25

4.4 Adaptive Capacity Map of South East Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

5.1 International migrant stock as a percentage of total population by age . 37

5.2 International migrant stock by age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

5.3 Registered Cambodian Workers in Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

6.1 Human Development Index Cambodia: Health, Education and Income . 45

A.1 Map of the GMS countries. Source UN, 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

B.1 Evolution over the last three decade of rice cultivation in Cambodia.

Source Bansok et. al., 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

C.1 Age pyramid of Cambodia. Source US Census Bureau, 2012 . . . . . . . 64

D.1 Basic economic and demographic indicators for GMS economies. Source

CIA Fact Book and World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

(United Nations) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

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LIST OF FIGURES

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List of Tables

4.1 Human Development Index in the LMB and East Asia and Pacific . . . 23

4.2 Floods in Cambodia 20002011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

4.3 Cambodia droughts 20002011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

5.1 Predominant migration flows in the GMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

5.2 Cambodian migrant workers sent officially to Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . 40

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LIST OF ACRONYMS

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List of

acronyms

ADB Asian Development Bank

ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Na-

tions

CCCO Cambodian Climate Change Office

CDRI Cambodia Development Resource In-

stitute

CHS Commission on Human Security

CPIA Country Policy and Institutional As-

sessment

CRISE Centre for Research on Inequality,

Human Security and Ethnicity

CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Indus-

trial Research Organisation

DAC Development Assistance Commit-

tee (of Organization for Economic

Co-operation and Development

(OECD))

DANIDA Danish International Development

Agency

DFID Department For International Devel-

opment

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GMS Greater Mekong Sub region

GNI Gross National Income

GSDRC Governance and Social DevelopmentResource Centre

HDI Human Development Index

IFAD International Fund for Agricultural

Development

IOM International Organisation for Mi-

gration

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change

IPCC TAR Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-mate Change: Third Assessment Re-

port

LICUS Low Income Countries Under Stress

LMB Lower Mekong Basin

MAFF Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and

Fisheries (Cambodia)

MoE Ministry of Environment (Cam-

bodia)

MOL Ministry of Labour (Cambodia)

MRC Mekong River Commission

NAPA National Adaptation Programme of

Action

NCCC National Climate Change Committee

NEP New Environmental Paradigm

OECD Organization for Economic Coopera-

tion and Development

PIDS Philippine Institute for Development

StudiesPPP Purchasing Power Parity

UN United Nations

UN DESA United Nations Department of Eco-

nomic and Social Affairs

UN OHRLS United Nations Office of the High

Representative for the Least De-

veloped Countries, Landlocked De-

veloping Countries and Small Island

Developing States

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LIST OF ACRONYMS

UNDP United Nations Development Pro-gramme

UNFCC United Nations Framework Conven-

tion on Climate Change

UNIAP United Nations Inter-Agency Project

on Human Trafficking

UNISDR United Nations International

Strategy for Disaster Reduction

UNTFHS United Nations Trust Fund for Hu-

man Security

WB World Bank

WFP World Food Programme

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1

Introduction

Over the past few years climate change has gained more and more attention from the

international community. The effects are multiple, but the biggest concern remains

the impact it will have on human lives. As IPCC stated the greatest single impact

of climate change might be on human migration, with millions displaced by shoreline

erosion, coastal flooding and agricultural disruption [UNDP, 2007].

In 2008, 20 million people have been displaced by extreme climate events comparing

to 4.6 million by violence and conflict [IOM, 2009]. The future does not seem any

brighter as it is estimated that by 2050, 200 million people will feel the effects of

climate change.

Migration as a result of climatic and environmental factors has been existing since

ancient times. People, such as nomads, for example, have moved to areas where the

environment offered them more possibilities to perform their activities and to provide

the necessary things for living. However, nowadays, a new dimension of the problem

arises that makes it difficult to establish a straight-forward connection between climate

change and human mobility. It is acknowledged that climate change by itself does not

represent a major factor that pushes people to migrate, but it is interconnected with

other economical, social or political determinants [Guchteneire et al., 2011].

Lately, the media has presented a range of extreme weather events that took place

around the world such as tornadoes, cyclones, hurricanes and tsunamis. They tend to

capture attention immediately due to their proportion and catastrophic consequences.

But the ones to impact more on the future movement of people are the gradual envir-

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1. INTRODUCTION

onmental changes. An IOM [IOM, 2009] report shows that over the past 3 decades, the

number of people affected by draughts is the double than those affected by storms (1.6

billion compared with approximately 718 million). [IOM, 2009] Climate change affects

us all, but the extent to which the effects are felt differs considerably, as the capacity

to respond to the challenges is not the same [UN-OHRLLS, 2009].

Asia and the Pacific is considered to be one of the regions that will feel the most

severely the effects of climate change. Being home to three fifths of the human popu-

lation, the region also represents the most important source of international migrantsin the world [ADB, 2009].

The high vulnerability characterizing the region is due to both natural and socio-

economic determinants. Its geographic position makes it very exposed to environmental

hazards such as floods, draughts, tsunamis and cyclones. At the same time, many of

the countries in the region are facing socio-economic problems and therefore lack the

capacity to respond to the challenges posed by the environment.

Situated in the Greater Mekong Sub region (GMS), Cambodia is considered to beextremely vulnerable to climate change. In the Climate Change Vulnerability Index

produced by Mapelcroft (2010), Cambodia is among the most at risk 16 countries in

the world [ADB, 2009]. The country has a rural population of 80% [UNDESA, 2011]

that is highly dependent on agriculture and thus extremely sensitive to changes in cli-

mate. The Cambodian Human Development Report in 2011 was dedicated to building

resilience for rural livelihoods in facing climate change. The report states that the

main vulnerability factor for the country consists of its limited adaptive capacity that

is caused by persistent poverty, inequality, insecure access to land and productive re-

sources and institutional and governance constraints [UNDP, 2011a].

Lack of employment opportunities, landlessness, financial debt or natural calamities are

core factors in pushing Cambodians to migrate to neighboring countries in the hope

of improving their livelihoods [IOM, 2011]. Even though it is difficult to give exact

numbers, much of the outmigration from Cambodia is irregular, meaning people that

lack the resources and knowledge to migrate legally, and choose irregular channels to

cross the borders. Irregular migration has been the most popular for workers seeking

employment abroad [Vutha et al., 2011].

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This paper focuses on the connection between the challenges faced by rural liveli-

hoods in the face of climate change, and the choice to migrate as a coping strategy. Spe-

cial attention is given to temporary migration to neighboring countries in the Greater

Mekong Subregion and within the ASEAN space, and also to the prevalence of irregular

migration.

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1. INTRODUCTION

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2

Methodology

The aim of this paper is to understand possible implications of climate change on hu-

man migration. This section describes concisely how this study answers the problem

formulation. It includes the conceptual framework, arguments for the use of the priv-

ileged theory and empirical data and the relevance of the case study, as well as the

limitations of this research.

2.1 Problem formulation

Migration is a very broad and diverse phenomena and it can have a multitude of

causes. The focus here is on the role played by climate change and the effects it has

on livelihoods and how this affects peoples decision to migrate. Special attention is

given to the agricultural sector as the majority of the population in Cambodia relies

on it. The main assumption is that facing food shortages and economic losses due

to prolonged draughts and floods people find migration as an option to secure their

livelihoods. In this respect, the central question is How is climate change affecting theinternational migration patterns in Cambodia?

The following working questions are to be used:

What are the consequences of climate change on rural livelihoods in Cambodia?

What conditions lead to migration instead of other adaptation options?

How is migration providing the means to overcome climate change-related challenges?

Being aware of all the determinants that might influence the migration patterns,

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2. METHODOLOGY

this study focuses exclusively on climate change and related aspects. This appears a bit

challenging as most of the time they act indirectly through other factors. However the

aspects taken into consideration in this paper are only those that facilitate or increase

the effects of climate change on migration patterns.

As a case study Cambodias situation is analyzed. Being situated in the one of

the regions most prone to natural disaster due to climate change the country faces big

challenges to cope with the situation. Still recovering after decades of civil war and

genocide, Cambodia has a limited adaptive capacity and resources to reduce its citizens

vulnerability in relation to climate change. With 80% of the population living in rural

areas [UNDESA, 2011] and depending mainly on agriculture, prolonged draughts or

floods can have a catastrophic effect on peoples livelihoods. As a consequence, many

choose to migrate to neighboring countries to find the means to supply their households

with the necessary resources. But most of the times the most vulnerable ones are the

ones that lack the means to migrate [IOM, 2009]. In Cambodia, this can be seen from

estimated high number of undocumented migrants that, having limited resources to

migrate legally, expose themselves to various risks by choosing irregular channels.

The focus on rural livelihoods is enforced by the above-mentioned high percentage

of people that are part of this category and that are heavily dependent on agriculture.

The research takes into consideration also the regional and international context in

order to have a better understanding of the migration picture. Therefore, migration in

the Greater Mekong Sub Region is introduced for a better insight on the forces shaping

human mobility in the region.

2.2 Conceptual framework

The current conceptual framework falls into the new environmental paradigm (NEP)

developed by Dunlap and Van Liere in 1977. Being a sociological approach to the

connection between environment and society, it emphasises the necessity of assessing

the importance of nonsocial factors (in this case, the environment) in shaping societies

[Catton and Dunlap, 1978]. They argue that there is a need to highlight not only

the role of the social environment in which we exist as humans but also the natural

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environment. The traditional Durkheimian explanation of social facts by other social

facts1 is challenged by the development of the NEP [Catton and Dunlap, 1978].

The conceptual pillars of this paper are: climate change, livelihood, vulnerability, re-

silience, adaptive capacity, international migration, irregular migration, environmental

migrants. They have been chosen in order to articulate the connection between climate

change and migration within the proposed framework.

Climate change as an emerging phenomenon has been conceptualized and defined

by different organizations. IPCC is one of the main ones and its definition given to

climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state

of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades

or longer). Climate change may be due to natural processes or external forcing or to

persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land-use.

[Levina and Tirpak, 2006]

Broadly used is also the UNFCC one that sees climate change as a change of

climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the com-

position of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability

observed over comparable time periods. [UNFCC, 1992]

However in this paper the focus is not on what are the causes of climate change, but on

the effects it has on livelihoods. Therefore the information is selected only in order to

give evidence of climate change in Cambodia and not to identify the causes that lead

to the current situation.

Environmental degradation: is the deterioration in environmental quality from

ambient concentrations of pollutants and other activities and processes such as im-

proper land use and natural disasters. [UN, 1997]

Climate change and environmental degradation are two related concepts. In respect

to the current problem formulation they are used interchangeably. They both refer

to modifications in the natural conditions that impact agriculture and hence peoples

livelihoods.

1Emile Durkheim, (18581917), French sociologist who developed a vigorous methodology combin-

ing empirical research with sociological theory. In The rules of sociological method (1895), he emphas-

ised the importance of analysing society as a distinct field from all the other sciences, by looking at the

social facts which are rooted in other social facts.

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2. METHODOLOGY

Livelihood: the assets (natural, physical, human, financial and social capital), the

activities and the access to these (mediated by institutions and social relations) that

together determine the living gained by the individual or household [Ellis, 2000]. This

notion is linking the two main variables of the research, namely climate change and

migration.

Within the climate change discussion, the following three concepts describe the context

in which climate change can have an impact on people.

Vulnerability: the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with,

adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerab-ility is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a

system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity [Levina and Tirpak, 2006].

Even if exposed to similar environmental hazards, the capacity to respond differs among

countries. Therefore, it is important to assess the level of vulnerability rather than

simply acknowledge the predisposition to experience extreme natural events.

Resilience: the capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to

hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing in order to reach and maintain an accept-

able level of functioning and structure. This is determined by the degree to which

the social system is capable of organizing itself to increase its capacity for learning

from past disasters for better future protection and to improve risk reduction measures.

[Levina and Tirpak, 2006]. Resilience is inversely proportional to vulnerability and it

enforced by a strong adaptive capacity.

Adaptive capacity: the property of a system to adjust its characteristics or behavior,

in order to expand its coping range under existing climate variability, or future climate

conditions. The expression of adaptive capacity as actions that lead to adaptation can

serve to enhance a systems coping capacity and increase its coping range thereby re-

ducing its vulnerability to climate hazards. The adaptive capacity inherent in a system

represents the set of resources available for adaptation, as well as the ability or capa-

city of that system to use these resources effectively in the pursuit of adaptation. It is

possible to differentiate between adaptive potential, a theoretical upper boundary of re-

sponses based on global expertise and anticipated developments within the planning hori-

zon of the assessment, and adaptive capacity that is constrained by existing information,

technology and resources of the system under consideration. [Levina and Tirpak, 2006]

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The following concepts refer to the migration section of this paper. As the focus is

on human mobility outside the borders of the country, it is important to use and define

the specific concept.

International migration: movement of persons who leave their country of origin, or

the country of habitual residence, to establish themselves either permanently or tempor-

arily in another country. An international frontier is therefore crossed. [IOM, 2004].

Given the complexity of the relation between climate change and migration, it

is never easy to find a term that encompasses the whole picture. As Castles in

[Guchteneire et al., 2011] argues, [environmentally and natural factors] are part of

a complex pattern of multiple causality, in which [they] are closely linked to economic,

social and political ones. In this line of thought, the term environmental migrant

has very limited applicability, as the environment alone does not have an impact on

peoples decision to migrate. However, in this paper environmental migrant is used to

describe those whose decision to migrate has been influenced by climate change related

events. This helps to keep the focus on the climate related aspects, bearing in mind

the same time other dimensions of the problem as well. It is important to mention also

that, considering the focus here is both on sudden natural hazards and on slow onset

climate processes, the widely used concept of climate refugee does not have enough

explanatory power for the issues discussed. Forced migration is just one of the ways

climate change can impact on human mobility and occurs only in extreme situations.

IOM proposes the following definition of environmental migrants: persons or

groups of persons who, for reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment

that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual

homes, or choose to do so, either temporary or permanently, and who move eitherwithin their territory or abroad. [IOM, 2008]. This definition makes the distinction

between forced migration due to climate change and voluntary migration driven by

environmental causes. Therefore, this reinforces the choice for the term environmental

migrant rather than climate refugee, which implies the idea of displacement.

As stated before, vulnerability refers to a systems limited capacity to cope with

climate change. This impacts on peoples individual coping strategies as well. There-

fore, in the absence of the necessary resources to migrate legally, irregular migration

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2. METHODOLOGY

becomes an accessible solution. As defined by IOM, it refers to the movement that

takes place outside the regulatory norms of the sending, transit and receiving countries.

There is no clear or universally accepted definition of irregular migration. From the

perspective of destination countries it is illegal entry, stay or work in a country, mean-

ing that the migrant does not have the necessary authorization or documents required

under immigration regulations to enter, reside or work in a given country. From the

perspective of the sending country, the irregularity is [] when a person crosses an in-

ternational boundary without a valid passport or travel document or does not fulfill the

administrative requirements for leaving the country. There is, however, a tendency torestrict the use of the term illegal migration to cases of smuggling of migrants and

trafficking in persons [IOM, 2004]. Equally, the term irregular migration proposed

by IOM has been chosen over illegal migration because it can be considered more

objective, whereas the latest might bring a negative light upon the migrants.

2.3 Choice of theory

2.3.1 Migration as adaptation

Being a dynamic phenomenon, migration changes, evolves and raises new issues that

constantly generate new theories, perspectives, and explanations. Either the accent

falls on an international scale, local or individual, either seeking answers in economical,

political, social, psychological factors, migration can be understood within a wide range

of approaches. As [Castles and Miller, 2009] distinguish, it is possible to talk about

economic theories of migration, historical- structural approaches, migration networks,

transnational theories, or approaches focused on the settlement in the destination coun-

try and the connected aspects.

The selection of theories for this paper has been done following the model proposed

by Smit and Pilifisova [McLeman and Smit, 2006], namely migration as adaptation to

climate change. According to them, vulnerability to climate change depends on the

degree of exposure and the adaptive capacity. They differentiate between community

adaptation and individual adaptation. If the communitys institutions are effective in

providing the means of adaptation, then migration is not expected to occur. In the

opposite case, individual households remain vulnerable and are forced to find their

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2.3 Choice of theory

own coping strategies. Therefore, migration of one or more household members can

represent an option.

The present case study is analyzed using two complementary theories. Firstly the

fragile states approach is used in order to contextualize Cambodias vulnerability to

climate change. Secondly, the new economics of migration theory explains the role

of remittances in providing the households affected by climate change with subsistence

means.

2.3.2 Fragile states

Despite the growing popularity of this concept among development agencies, there

is no unanimously accepted definition, given the multitude of aspects to be taken into

consideration when assessing a states fragility. Common characteristics of fragile states

include the lack of capability to assure basic security, maintain rule of law and justice

or provide basic services and economic opportunities for their citizens. [GSDRC, 2012]

A states fragility can be sometimes understood in a pejorative way and bring

tension between the aid community and the governments.

Brown and Stewart (2010) distinguish between three dimensions of state fragil-

ity, namely authority failures, service failures, and legitimacy failures. In this re-

spect, fragile states could be defined as states that are failing, or at risk of fail-

ing, with respect to authority, comprehensive basic service provision, or legitimacy.

[Brown and Stewart, 2010]

[Carment and Samy, 2011] argue that state fragility should be understood not only

referring to one states present or past, but also in comparison to other states. However,

this is far from being facile as, over time, not only a countrys situation is evolving but

also the referents. Therefore, a countrys fragility cannot be assessed by referring to an

absolute point where the situation cannot get any worse. In this way, the concept can

be used not to describe different typologies of states, but becomes rather a measure of

the extent to which the actual institutions, functions and political processes of a state

accord with the strong image of the sovereign state that reified in both state theory and

international law. [Carment and Samy, 2011]

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2. METHODOLOGY

Understood like this, state fragility becomes less a pejorative attribute of some countries

and more an objective way of understanding a states performance.

2.3.3 The new economics of migration

The new economics of migration [Massey et al., 1998] is an approach that shifts the

focus on the individual characteristic to the neoclassical approach, to the household

or even community level. This is not a theory in itself but rather a group of ap-

proaches that try to explain peoples decision to migrate referring to the households

needs. Migration is seen as a compensation for the lack of social insurance or crop fail-

ures, unemployment or other unexpected situations that might affect the households

wellbeing.

What makes this theoretical approach useful for the current research is that it offers

a broader view of the problem by taking into consideration several other non-economic

aspects such as the role of social networks, social security and information.

2.4 Empirical dataThe case study chosen for this paper is Cambodia. As a low income country, Cambodias

resilience to climate change is limited. Its vulnerability is driven both by natural and

socio-economical aspects. Hence, relevant country information is given in order to

describe the context in which migration under the climate change stress occurs.

An overview of the situation in the Greater Mekong Subregion is given in order to

highlight the existing patterns in international migration in the region.

Due to time, temporal, financial and linguistic constraints, it was not possible to

conduct my own field research in Cambodia. Therefore, the empirical part consists

of secondary data from various reports and assessments conducted in Cambodia. The

information is selected in order to assess the evidence of climate change in the country

and the impact it has on the agricultural sector. Complementarily, data regarding

migration patterns and determinants for migration is analyzed. The conclusion of this

study can represent a hypothesis for a potential future field research that could bring

concrete evidence between climate change and migration.

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2.5 Limitations

2.5 Limitations

Due to time and financial constraints, it was not possible to go to Cambodia and

conduct the research there. Therefore, the lack of raw data from the field may be

considered a limitation. However, this is to some extent compensated by the experience

regarding migration issues in the country that I have gained during my internship there.

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2. METHODOLOGY

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3

Theoretical framework

3.1 Migration as adaptation model

The theoretical framework is based on the model proposed by Smit and Pilifisova

[McLeman and Smit, 2006] regarding migration as adaptation to climate change. Their

focus is on vulnerability as a central point in approaching the climate change-migration

nexus.

They define vulnerability as the potential to experience harm or loss from some

event or condition, and this potential is related to factors that affect the likelihood of

the event or condition occurring and the ability to cope with the event if and when it

occurs. [McLeman and Smit, 2006] The two authors propose a model based on Smit

and Pilifisova (2003)s formula regarding vulnerability to climate change:

Vslit = f(Eslit, ACslit) (3.1)

where V = vulnerability, E = exposure, AC = adaptive capacity, s = a given system

or community, l = a given location, i = a given climatic stimulus and t = a given

period of time.

Equation 3.1 states that vulnerability varies in terms of space and time and differs

from system to system. The two central elements are exposure and adaptive capacity.

Exposure refers to the probability or incidence of hazardous conditions or events relat-

ive to human occupancy at a particular location and time [McLeman and Smit, 2006].

Adaptive capacity represents the ability of the system to deal with or cope with the

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3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

Figure 3.1: Modified model of migration in response to climate change based on Smit

and Pilifisova (2003)

conditions or effects to which it is exposed. [McLeman and Smit, 2006]

In this formula, vulnerability is positively related to exposure, meaning that a systems

vulnerability increases proportionally to its exposure to climate events. Adaptive ca-

pacity on the other hand is inversely proportional to vulnerability, as it increases when

the latter decreases.

The suggested model of migration as adaptation to climate change (figure 3.1)

distinguishes between:

institutionalized adaptive capacity, meaning the communitys effort to overcome

climate change related difficulties,

and individual adaptive capacity that occurs when the community has limited

adaptive capacity and its members are forced to find themselves a solution.

In this model migration is seen as an individual adaptation strategy in order to

supply the households loss from climate change events. In the absence of an organised

community plan to adapt, the migration of one or more household members represents

a solution.

In order to emphasise the vulnerability characterising Cambodia, the fragile state

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3.2 Fragile states

approach is detailed further. As well, the new economics of migration approach is

used to emphasise the rationale behind choosing migration as an adaptation strategy

among other options.

3.2 Fragile states

One of the great challenges of the new millennium is to ensure that all states are

strong enough to meet the many challenges they face. If States are fragile, the peoples

of the world will not enjoy the security, development and justice that are their right.

(Kofi Annan in [Andersen, 2008])

The interest the international community has developed for fragile states comes

from the spreading of these internal problems across the borders. Mass migration,

organised crime, communicable diseases or environmental depletion are just some of

the consequences that might be felt on an international scale. [Andersen, 2008]

The variety of situations that can generate state fragility makes it very difficult to

find a common definition that encompasses all the aspects that need to be taken into

consideration. Despite the growing popularity of this concept in the international aid

community, there has been debate regarding the concept itself, as it might be offensive

to some governments and their effort to stabilise their countries. There is an important

polemic whether state fragility is caused by the malfunctioning of domestic institutions

of public authority (Rotberg in [Andersen, 2008]), or by the global political economy

and the fragile states position in the world system (Chapham in [Andersen, 2008]). In

order to solve this, in some literature, fragile states are replaced by the term situation

of fragility. This is seen to decrease the pejorative meaning of the concept, by en-

compassing that fragility is not strictly determined by internal causes [GSDRC, 2012].

The existing body of definitions addresses different aspects and therefore work comple-

mentarily in offering a clearer picture of what fragility is about.

The OECD explanation of the term refers to countries unable to meet [their] popu-

lations expectations or manage changes in expectations and capacity through the polit-

ical process. (OECD in [GSDRC, 2012]).

DFID sees fragile states as those where the government cannot or will not deliver

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core functions to the majority of its people including the poor [Brown and Stewart, 2009]

p.2.

The World Bank proposes a different terminology for the fragile states, namely, low-

income countries under stress (LICUS) (Brown and Stewart, 2009). LICUS are fragile

states characterised by a debilitating combination of weak governance, policies and insti-

tutions, indicated by ranking among the lowest (


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3.3 The new economics of migration

of violence, human security refers to a broad range of rights such as education, health

care, access to economic opportunities, that enhance freedom from fear and freedom

from want [UNTFHS, 2007].

Ensuring human security means making people able to control their lives by giving

them the right tools to fulfill their needs. In fragile states, people become the victims

of the lack of opportunities in securing their livelihoods. This makes them vulnerable

to shocks that would be possible to overcome otherwise.

3.3 The new economics of migration

The new economics of migration [Massey et al., 1998] known also as the new econom-

ics of labour migration (Taylor and Stark in [Castles and Miller, 2009]) developed as a

response to the neoclassical theory of migration. Despite the fact that both approaches

focus on the supply side of migration [Castles and Miller, 2009], the difference consists

of the unity of analysis taken into consideration. While the neoclassical theory con-

centrates on the maximization of the individuals utility, the new economics approach

encompasses larger units of people such as families, households or even communities

[Massey et al., 1998] and [Castles and Miller, 2009].

Migration is seen to be enforced by the households decision to send one or more

members abroad in order to diversify the income, provide resources for investment or as

an insurance against market failures [Massey et al., 1998] and [Castles and Miller, 2009].

Hence, migration becomes a risk-sharing behaviour adopted by households [Haas, 2007].

In developing countries with a limited welfare system, the family takes the responsibil-

ity for the needs of the dependent members. Therefore, when the resources are limited,the decision of migrating usually stems from the family will, and is not an act of an

individuals self interest.

[Haas, 2007] identifies conceptual similarities between the new economics of migra-

tion and the livelihood approach that emerged in the 70s in geography, anthropology

and sociology that argued that the poor do not remain passive victims of the global

capitalism, but actively try to improve their livelihood conditions within their pos-

sibilities (Lieten and Nieuwenhuys [Haas, 2007]). In this respect, migration becomes

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one strategy to secure and improve the livelihoods and to overcome the difficulties

encountered in the places of origin.

[Massey et al., 1998] identify several shocks that the household can face and where

migration can be a solution.

One such situation refers to crop failure. In agriculture-based communities people in-

vest in crops that due to human or natural events may not return the resources invested,

or, even more, the harvest might be so little that households face food shortages. In

these situations, one or more family members may seek for work abroad, temporarily,

especially in those months of the year when the agricultural activity is low, in order to

compensate the losses. Hence, migration works as a self-insurance strategy that pre-

vents the household from facing food shortages on the one hand, and provides resources

to be invested in agriculture the following year on the other hand. This is also valid

in the case of crop price fluctuation. If the expected price of an agricultural product

decreases, the remittances can cover the losses and help the household to recover.

Likewise, remittances can work as labour insurances such as unemployment or re-

tirement. If the level of employment in a specific region falls, migration of one familymember may supplant the income previously earned by other family members. In a

similar manner, this happens in case of retirement. Especially in the developing world,

where these kinds of insurances are very limited and not accessible to the poor, mi-

gration remains a solution. Additionally in these developing countries, there is a high

prevalence of employment on the undeclared market, which renders workers vulnerable

to abuses from employers. These jobs are unstable and lack legal grounds to claim any

kind of compensations.

The new economics of migration propose a new perspective on the rationale behind

peoples decision to seek for employment abroad. It also emphasizes on the role of

remittances and their functionality for the household.

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4

Climate change in Cambodia:

Background information

4.1 Assessing the evidence: climate patterns and vulner-

abilities

According to IPCC 4th Assessment Report [IPCC, 2007], the average global temperat-

ure increased by 0.74C in the period of 19062005. It is mainly due to the greenhouse

gases emissions, especially carbon dioxide. Even if there is a big difference between

countries in this respect, the impact is felt by the atmosphere, which is a common

good for the whole planet. The effects are unevenly distributed and their consequences

depend highly on each countrys capacity to adapt and to respond.

South East Asia is expected to be highly affected by climate change mainly due to

the high reliance of economies on agriculture and natural resources. Climate extremes

such as floods, droughts and cyclones are more and more frequent. [IFAD, ny]

The Greater Mekong Subegion (GMS) is a natural economic area along the Mekong

River Basin, covering 2.6 million m2 and a population of around 326 million. A detailed

map of the GMS region is presented in Annex A. Since 1992, assisted by the ADB, the

six countries of the subregion, namely Peoples Republic of China, Myanmar, Lao

Peoples Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, entered

a subregional programme of economic cooperation that aims at enhancing the economic

relations among the countries. [ADB, 2012]

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4. CLIMATE CHANGE IN CAMBODIA: BACKGROUND

INFORMATION

Figure 4.1: Rice exports by major exporters. Source FAO, 2012

In the GMS, the concerns raised by climate change refer mainly to the effects it

might have on the socioeconomic characteristics of the countries in the region [ MRC, 2009].

The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) has a surface 606 000 km2

and covers Cambodia, LaoPDR, Vietnam and Thailand. Climate change is expected to have an impact on weather

patterns in terms of temperature, rainfall and wind. Seasonal shortages, draughts,

floods and saltwater intrusion are foreseen to increase in intensity and frequency. Fur-

thermore, the changing weather patterns represent a threat to natural ecosystems and

agriculture and food production to supply growing populations. The severity of these

impacts is exacerbated in the region by the strong reliance of livelihoods on natural re-

sources [MRC, 2010]. Similarly, as it can be seen in Figure 4.1, the GMS is the location

of the two of the worlds biggest rice exporters, Thailand and Vietnam.

A study carried out by CSIRO shows a predicted increase of 0.7C in temperature

over the Mekong Basin. Furthermore, the river flow for the LMB is expected to increase

by 4-13% in the wet season and 3040% in the dry season. The flooding risk is seen as

an emerging challenge especially in the lowland areas of Kratie, the Mekong Delta and

Tonle Sap Lake. [MRC, 2010]

In 2011, the GMS region has faced catastrophic floods which have caused the loss

of hundreds of lives, displacement of millions of people and severe damage to housing,

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4.1 Assessing the evidence: climate patterns and vulnerabilities

HDI Life expectancy at birth Gross National Income (GNI) percapita (constant 2005 PPP $)

Cambodia 0,523 63,1 1848

Lao PDR 0,524 67,5 2242

Vietnam 0,593 75,2 2805

Thailand 0,682 74,1 7694

Myanmar 0,483 65,2 1535

China 0,687 73,5 7476

East Asia and the Pacific 0,671 72,4 6466

Table 4.1: Human Development Index in the LMB and East Asia and Pacific. Source:

UNDP, 2011

infrastructure and agriculture [FAO, 2011]. The damages were estimated to 12.5% of

the national cropped area in Thailand, 12% in Cambodia, 7.5% in Lao PDR and 0.45%

in Vietnam. Additionally there has been a significant loss of livestock and poultry

[FAO, 2011].

According to the Global Hunger Index Level (2009), three of the four Lower Mekong

Basin countries, namely, Cambodia, Lao PDR and Vietnam are highly vulnerable, with

the first being in an alarming situation [MRC, 2010]. This is strongly correlated with

their reliance on subsistence agriculture which is dependent on weather patterns.

All of the countries in the GMS have a medium human development index (Table

4.1) with values between 0.523 and 0.682 [UNDP, 2011b]. Thailand and China have

a slightly higher HDI than East Asia and Pacific (0.671) while Vietnam, Lao PDR

and Cambodia have lower values. In addition, Cambodia ranks last in terms of life

expectancy, with 11 years less than neighbouring Thailand. Moreover, a significant

difference between the countries in the region when looking at the Gross NationalIncome (GNI) is observed.

The HDI represents an important indicator when assessing a countrys vulnerab-

ility to climate change. As shown in the table above, the GMS is far from being a

homogenous region in terms of development. It impacts the capacity to respond to

environmental challenges.

Cambodia contributes little to climate change due to its low industrial profile and

predominant small scale subsistence agriculture. Cambodias total emissions in 2000

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INFORMATION

Figure 4.2: Cambodia Mean Temperature Anomaly Annual, McSweeny, 2008

amounted to 47 002,85 Gg of CO2

eq., of which 24 908,82 Gg was CO2

, 973 Gg was

CH4

and 9,82 Gg was N2

O (MoE in [UNDP, 2011a]). In 2000, Cambodia turned

from a net absorber of greenhouse gases, into a net emitter. This was not caused by

industrialization but by land use change and forestry conversion (49%), agricultural

activities (44%) and energy (7%) [UNDP, 2011a].

Regarding climatic change in Cambodia, the mean temperature increased by 0.8C

in the period 19602005. The temperature has been rising more rapidly in the dry

season, around 0.200.23C and more slowly in the wet season with a rate of 0.13

0.16C. Besides, the frequency of hot days and nights within this period has increased

by 12.6% and 17.2% respectively, while the cold days and nights have decreased. In

terms of precipitation, as Figure 4.2 shows, within the same period of time, great

variability from one year to another is observed. [McSweney et al., 2008]

The trend line foresees a continuation a progressive increase of the mean annual

temperature by 0.72.7C in 2060, and 1.44.3C in 2090. In like manner, the frequency

of hot days is expected to increase by 1449% and hot nights by 2468% in 2060,

along with a decrease in the frequency of the days and nights considered cold. Despitethe lack of clear picture regarding the precipitation change, it is likely that the rainfall

will increase during the monsoon season. [WB, 2011c]

Geographically, Cambodia is characterized by an undulating plateau in the east, flat

plains along Tonle Sap Lake and the Mekong River in the centre, the Dangrek Moun-

tains along the border with Thailand in the west, and the Cardamom Mountains and

Elephant Range in the southwest [DANIDA, 2008]. Cambodias geographical position

keeps it protected from climate extremes such as typhoons, earthquakes or tsunamis

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Figure 4.3: Climate Hazards South East Asia. Source Yusuf and Francisco 2009

that are a great danger for the countries in the region. As observed in Map 4.3, in

terms of exposure to climate hazards, the biggest part of Cambodia ranks rather low

in comparison to the other countries.

The situation changes when assessing the adaptive capacity of the South East Asiancountries. As seen in Map 4.4, Cambodia has the lowest capacity to respond to climate

hazards. This contributes to an increased vulnerability, which unlike for the other

countries, is not imposed by nature but its socio-economic profile.

The country is mostly exposed to floods and droughts, both in terms of frequency

and impact. According to a report issued by World Bank, these two climate extremes

are recognized by the Government as one of the main drivers of poverty [WB, 2011c].

The succession of floods and droughts from the past two decades resulted in a significant

number of fatalities and had a very high cost for the economy.

In the following two sections information on the two most common natural hazards

in Cambodia, namely floods and droughts is presented.

4.1.1 Floods

An estimated three quarters of the annual rainfall is represented by the southwest

monsoons, lasting between May and October. This leads to recurrent floods from the

Mekong River and the Tonle Sap Lake that sometimes contribute to disasters. These

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INFORMATION

Figure 4.4: Adaptive Capacity Map of South East Asia (2005) in Yusuf and Francisco,

2009

Mekong fluctuations are of a high concern as 80% of the people leave along the river.

Rice production is highly vulnerable to floods as it resulted in a loss of 70% of the yieldfor the period 19982002. The overall estimated agricultural loss is US $100-170 million

each year. Over and above, estimates show around 100 people are killed annually by

floods [WB, 2011c].

Table 4.2 summarizes the proportions such natural events have taken over the past

decade.

4.1.2 Droughts

In complement to damages caused by excessive water, Cambodia faces severe droughts.

Poor management, access and storage of the abundant water resources coupled with

delays or early endings of the monsoon rains have led to droughts, with Svay Rieng as

one of the most affected provinces in the country. Droughts have a significant impact

on the population and the economy and can result in crop failure, health problems and

environmental degradation [WB, 2011c]. Table 4.3 shows the number of people affected

and the financial damages caused by droughts.

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Start End Killed Tot. Affected Est. Damage (US$ Million)

00/08/11 00/10/11 207 1 350 000 95

20/10/10 09/11/10 8 70

10/08/07 24/08/07 2 19 000 1

10/08/06 01/11/06 5 33 000

06/07/06 07/07/06 5 000

08/09/05 29/09/05 16

24/08/04 21/10/04

18/08/02 26/11/02 29 1 470 000 0,1

15/08/01 19/11/01 56 1 669 182 15

11/07/00 10/08/00 347 3 448 053 160

25/10/99 09/11/99 124 475

02/08/99 08/08/99 7 535 904 0.5

30/09/96 03/11/96 59 1 300 000 1.5

31/07/94 31/07/94 506 29 000

22/08/91 30/08/91 100 900 000 150

Table 4.2: Floods in Cambodia 2000- 2011. Source EM- DAT Database, 2012

Start End Tot. Affected Est. Damage (US$ Million)

00/04/2005 00/04/2005 600000

00/01/2002 00/07/2002 650 000 38

00/09/2001 00/00/2001 300000

00/06/1994 00/00/1996 5 000 000 100

00/00/1987 00/00/1987

Table 4.3: Cambodia droughts 2000-2011. Source EM-DAT Database, 2012

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INFORMATION

4.2 Institutional framework

Cambodia has ratified both the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UN-

FCC) in 1995 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. In 2007, the country submitted the

National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to Climate Change to the UNFCC.

One of the first LDCs to adopt a NAPA, Cambodia aims at adversing climate events

such as floods, droughts, windstorms, high tide, saline water intrusion and malaria.

The priorities of the NAPA were the improvement of livelihoods, food security, wa-

ter availability, use of appropriate technology, responsiveness to immediate community

needs, and sustainability. [DANIDA, 2008]

The main state institutions dealing with climate change-related issues in Cambodia

are:

The Ministry of Environment established in June 2003 as a technical body within

the Department of Planning and Legal Affair, the Cambodian Climate Change

Office (CCCO). This entity is given the responsibility to carry out all technical

activities associated with the implementation of the UNFCC and other tasks

related to climate change (MoE in [DANIDA, 2008]).

National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) is an inter-ministerial mechanism

is in charge of the preparation, coordination and monitoring of the implement-

ation of policies, strategies, legal instruments, plans and programs of the Cam-

bodian Government to address climate change. [DANIDA, 2008].

Designated National Authority for the Clean Development Mechanism

Department of Meteorology, Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology which

is in charge with providing information about the climate.

Despite the efforts that have been made to respond to climate change, Cambodia,

as a fragile state with limited institutional capacity, lacks a comprehensive national

policy. The Gap Analysis in the Lower Mekong Basin conducted by the Mekong River

Commission (2009) identifies the areas where Cambodia needs improvement in terms of

response to climate change. Special attention needs to be given to creating awareness

among populations and institutions. The same way, the country needs to enhancing

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4.3 Impact on agriculture

the populations adaptive capacity. One of the major weaknesses consists of the lack

of reliable climate change data and assessment studies that can further lead to a more

effective implementation of the ongoing initiatives.

The state institutions work is complemented by international organisations, civil

society, and donors that work together to enhance the countrys capacity to adapt to

climate change.


In this section, information regarding the agricultural sector and its vulnerability to

climate change is given. Cambodias rural population counts over 80% and around 73%

relies on agriculture for their livelihood. Yet 20% of the land is arable [FAO, 2011].

Cambodia has a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US $ 10 354 million per annum

and the countrys economy relies primarily on agriculture (33% of GDP and employing

57% of the countrys labor force), industry (predominantly garments - 21% of GDP

and employing 15.9% of the countrys labor force), and services (42% of GDP and

employing 26% of the countrys labor force). In the 2000s, a fluctuation of the annual

GDP growth rate from 5 to 13% has been registered. In 2008, GDP grew by 6.5%, with

agriculture, fisheries and forestry accounting for 32.4% of GDP, industry for 22.8%, and

services for 38.8%. Industry has doubled its contribution to GDP since 1993. Yet, a

significant proportion of the population depends on the farming and fisheries sectors

[WB, 2011c].

Rice is a traditional crop in Cambodia, begin a major source of income for rural

people [Bansok et al., 2011]. In the 1960s the country was one of the main exportersin Asia but during the civil war and genocide years that changed. Nowadays, rice

production is seen as a key factor contributing to national economic growth, being

termed as the white gold. Cambodia is producing around 7 million tons per year

[UNDP, 2011a] and is aiming at doubling its production by 2015. The evolution of rice

cultivation for the last three decades in Cambodia is pictured in Annex B. This might

benefit the economy but raises concerns about the impact on the environment.

Along with rice farming, livestock, fisheries and non-timber and forest products are

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INFORMATION

common activities among rural households. Similarly, crops such as cashew, cassava,

maize and beans and poultry supplement the daily subsistence and income earning

[UNDP, 2011a]. Traditional agricultural techniques are predominant and depend highly

on rainfalls and farmers usually grow one crop per year [Bansok et al., 2011]. Fisheries

are considered to be the second most important agricultural sector after rice farming,

since they produce the main source of protein for the population.

There are often a range of factors associated with low productivity such as landlessness

typically the land tenure is lower than 1 hectare , weak access to support services

for smallholders, limited inland agricultural processing and weak access to markets[UNDP, 2011a].

Livestock, as a key component of agricultural livelihoods, remains mainly small-

scale, standing only for 15.3% of the agricultural productivity in 2009 (MAFF in

[UNDP, 2011a]).

The predicted changes in temperature might impact the rice production in the way

that can prevent pollination and accelerate dehydration (Johnston in [UNDP, 2011a]).

The rice production is expected to decrease by 10% for every 1

C increase in the

temperature in growing season. Critically, recent economic studies have estimate that

1C increase in the temperature can lead to 10% loss in income (Kala, Boret and

Kurukulasuriya in [UNDP, 2011a]).

Predictions based on different scenarios foresee a decrease in the rice yields of 70

20% of the current production (MoE in [UNDP, 2011a]). In addition, the changes in

rainfall patterns with shorter rainy seasons but with more abundant rain will affect the

traditional cropping practices. Livestock will too be affected by the changes in weather

patterns. This may already be seen in some villages as a study carried out by PlanInternational (2010) shows that livestock deaths have been reported by villagers due

to weather changes.

Agriculture in Cambodia is heavily relying on climate factors. Moderate floods are

not new and are normally beneficial to crops, but under new climate patterns, changes

in intensity and duration have made it difficult for the farmers to keep on with their

traditional techniques. The focus of this paper dealing with the effects of climate change

on migration, the following chapter gives an overview of the current context both at a

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regional and national level.

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INFORMATION

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5

International migration in

Cambodia

5.1 Migration in the Greater Mekong Sub Region (GMS)

Except China, the GMS countries are part of the Association of Southeast Asian Na-

tions (ASEAN) that was established in 1967 to enforce regional cooperation for eco-

nomic growth, social progress and cultural development [ASEAN, 2009].

The countries in the GMS are characterised by different levels of development that

influences migration patterns. A table with basic demographic and economic indicators

of the GMS is available in Annex D. Often, people from the less developed countries

in the subregion cross the border, seeking for employment in places with more oppor-

tunities.

Along with economic development, migration within the region is further facilitated

by factors such as proximity, porous borders, cultural similarities and the developmentof the transport infrastructure such as highways.

The migration flows proper to the subregion can be understood within the push

and pull framework. Hence, the domestic socio-economic difficulties such as high

unemployment and low salaries, are complemented by a series of aspects that attract

people to a certain destination, such as the growing demand for labor force and higher

wages. Table 5.1 below summarises the main migration flows within the GMS and

gives details on the migration type depending on the status. In the same way, the

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5. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN CAMBODIA

Origin Destination Status Sector or skill level

Cambodia Thailand and Vietnam

Regular and irregular to

Thailand; irregular to Viet-

nam

Primarily low skilled (agri-

culture, fisheries and con-

struction); primarily agri-

culture in Southern Vietnam

Lao PDRThailand and small numbers

in Yunnan Province PRC

Regular and irregular to

Thailand; not known to

Yunnan Province PRC

Primarily low skilled

MyanmarThailand, Yunnan Province

PRC

irregular if they arrived in

Thailand after 2004; regular

to Yunnan Province PRC

Primarily low skilled in

Thailand; low skilled and

business persons in Yunnan

Province PRC

Thailand

No significant migration to

other GMS economies (other

than professionals and intra-

corporate transfers)

Not known Not known

Vietnam

Cambodia, Lao PDR and

Guangxi Zhuang Autonom-

ous Region, PRC

Mostly irregular (no legal

channels from Vietnam to

other GMS economies)

Primarily low skilled to

Guangxi Zhuang Autonom-

ous Region, PRC; medium,

high skilled and business

persons to Cambodia and

Lao PDR

Yunnan Province,PRC

Lao PDR, Vietnam and My-anmar

Regular and irregular

Low skilled (agriculture,

mining), medium skilled

and business persons

Table 5.1: Predominant migration flows in the GMS, World Bank, 2006; Sciortino and

Punpuing, 2009 in Soda, 2009

table informs about the kind of work performed by the migrants abroad. Low-skilled

workers from Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar are dominantly going to Thailand

and Vietnam.

With 932 255 registered migrant workers and an estimated number of two to four

times higher of irregular migrants (Thailand Ministry of Labor in [IOM, 2011]), Thail-

and is the main receiving country in the region. Its growing economy attracts workers

from the neighbouring countries, especially Myanmar, Cambodia and Lao PDR. Indic-

ators show that among the six countries, Thailand has the lowest population growth

and fertility rate, and the highest GDP per capita. It has been experiencing high eco-

nomic growth for over a decade. These factors together created labor opportunities

that at the low end of the wage scale have been filled by migrant workers from other

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5.2 Cambodias international migration profile

GMS countries [Soda, 2009].

In terms of duration, migration in the GMS can be either long-term for those look-

ing for permanent residence , short-term for one to two years , seasonal for specific

activities such as agriculture, or on a daily basis since the border passes from Cam-

bodia to Thailand or Vietnam, for example [Soda, 2009]. In the migration picture in the

GMS, remittances play an important role. Most of the migrants go abroad in order to

compensate the lack of income for their families. Estimates showed that US $26 million

was sent from Thailand to Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar [Soda, 2009]. It is diffi-

cult to obtain exact numbers since much of the money is transferred through informal

channels. Studies show that remittances are used for improving households conditions,

investments in better housing, health, education or other necessities [Soda, 2009].

One of the main challenges in assessing the migration patterns in the GMS is rep-

resented by the high number of irregular migrants. Irregular migrants lack the doc-

umentation necessary for having a legal status, which plays a crucial role in terms of

rights and obligations they can have in the destination country. Irregular channels are

more accessible, especially to the low skilled labor migrants that have limited financial

resources to invest in obtaining the necessary documents for working in the hosting

country.

One of the main risks of irregular migration in the GMS is human trafficking.

In their attempt to make a better living by working abroad people, ask the help of

facilitators to cross the border and to get in contact with potential employers. This

informal way of migrating, mainly based on trust, often puts people in exploitative

situations that can take the form of bonded labour, physical abuses or forbidden contact

with families.


In Cambodia, most migration is concentrated within its borders [Maltoni, 2006]. The

growing garment industry attracts people, mainly women, from rural areas to work in

big cities like Phnom Penh (Bargawi in [Natsuda, 2009]). A survey by the ADB showed

that approximately 90% of workers sent remittances to their families back in the rural

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areas (ADB in [Natsuda, 2009]). The border areas are also important destinations for

internal migrants. Indeed, many people commute there with a long-term plan of going

to neighbouring countries [Fabrega and Lim, 2011] and [IOM, 2011]. The border areas

present employment opportunities. Many of them are within the growing gambling

industry, along the borders with Vietnam and Thailand.

However, Cambodias demographic profile has an unbalanced population growth,

with a median age of 21.3 years old and about 60% of the population under 25 years.

An age pyramid representation of Cambodia is depicted in Annex C. It has posedgreat pressure on the labor market, overwhelming the workforce demand (DFID in

[UNESCAP, 2010]). Despite low unemployment rates (7% in 2008), 82.5% of the em-

ployed population is engaged in vulnerable jobs, being unpaid family workers or own-

account workers [ILO, 2010].

This has contributed to the growing popularity of cross-border migration as a means

to cope with the lack of job opportunities back in the home country. This shifted Cam-

bodias international migration profile over the last two decades, from mainly refugees

to labour migrants in the neighbouring countries [Fabrega and Lim, 2011]. Likewise,

the development of infrastructure such as highways connecting the big cities in the

region facilitated migration.

The number of registered emigrants from Cambodia is low reported to the whole

population (Figure 5.1). Yet, this raises concern regarding the accuracy of the official

data, as most of the migrants do not undergo the legal process for obtaining working

permits.

As illustrated in Figure 5.2, among the registered international migrants, the ma-jority is represented by the young population. This supports the assumption that the

active workforce goes abroad in order to seek employment.

5.2.1 Destination countries for emigration from Cambodia

As stated above, migration in Cambodia is a very complex phenomenon that takes a

great variety of forms. This can equally be seen by looking at the main destination

countries for international migration.

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Figure 5.1: International migrant stock as a percentage of total population by age,

Cambodia, 2010. Source UN DESA, 2011

Figure 5.2: International migrant stock by age, Cambodia, 2010. Source UN DESA, 2011

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Figure 5.3: Registered Cambodian Workers in Thailand (Feb. 2010). Source UNIAP,

2010

According to WB [WB, 2011a], the top destination countries for emigration are

the United States, France, Thailand, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the Republic

of Korea, Japan, Switzerland, and Belgium. Nevertheless, this report only entails the

legal channels for migrating, which only stand for a small part of the migration picture

in the country. As an example, countries like Malaysia and Vietnam are discarded,

while in most of the related literature, they are considered relevant destinations. It

is not pertinent in this study to review in details migration flux towards developed

countries such as those mentioned earlier. Indeed, people concerned with the latter

belong to another category than the subsistence farmers, vulnerable to climate change.

For that reason, migration to Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia are discussed in the

following three sections.

5.2.1.1 Migration to Thailand

Thailand is the main destination country for Cambodian migrants seeking for employ-

ment. An increased educational attainment among Thais has improved their prospect-

ive on accessing skilled jobs [UNIAP, 2010]. It created a gap in the labour market

that is filled with workforce imported from abroad. In 2010, there were 124 902 mi-

grant workers registered in Thailand, working in fisheries, fishery procession, agricul-

ture and livestock, construction , domestic work , and others (Figure 5.3) (IOM in

[UNIAP, 2010]).

It is appraised that many of the migrants enter Thailand legally but become irreg-

ular as they over-stay their visas and work permits [IOM, 2011]. Most of them come

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from inner provinces of Cambodia and migrate initially to the border province Banteay

Meanchey. From that point, they further arrange crossing the border.

Irregular migrants in Thailand are exposed to many abuses. Over the past years, more

and more attention has been paid to the situation of bounded labour on fishing boats

in Thailand. Many Cambodian men are promised work in factories while they end up

being sold to captains of fishing boats. They are often forced to work overtime, being

away on the sea, from several months up to a year. During this time, they are ex-

posed to abuses such as beatings, starvation, sleep deprivation and lack of health care.

Being undocumented, they fear detention and cannot seek help from the authorities[IOM, 2012].

5.2.1.2 Migration to Vietnam

Vietnam is another important destination country for Cambodian migrant workers.

Svay Rieng is a province situated along the Vietnamese border, considered an important

source point for emigration. Irregular migration to Vietnam is both long and short term

(Kavenagh, Buller and Khiev in [IOM, 2011]). Daily migrants cross the border to work

in agriculture or other types of low skilled manual labour.The province has 83% of the population living in rural areas and 35.93% living in

poverty (Ministry of Planning in [IOM, 2011]). The province is crossed by the National

Highway Route 1, which spurred the industrial and economical development in the

region, gathering people from other provinces in the country in search for work.

Even though Cambodia has opened its borders to regulate labour outmigration, many

people choose irregular channels due to costs and convenience. One specific feature

of this region is a growing popularity for migration for begging in Ho Chi Minh City,

Vietnams financial capital. This has become so acknowledged and organised thatstudies often refer to a culture of begging (IOM in [Fabrega and Lim, 2011]).

A great proportion of persons involved in these activities are children (73% of the

returned migrants in 2005) and females (74% of the returnees). This is because their

vulnerability is an asset to obtain money from merciful tourists and locals in Ho Chi

Minh. [IOM, 2011]

One of the biggest threat faced is trafficking, since many people have made a business

from taking children under their protection to bring them to Vietnam for begging.

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Year MalaysiaTotal M F

1998 120 120

1999 86 86

2000 502 307 195

2001 846 342 504

2002 1 049 246 803

2003 573 73 500

2004 809 105 704

2005 1 776 467 1 309

2006 1 690 231 1 459

2007 3 081 174 2 9072008 3 432 53 3 379

2009 9 682 876 8 806

Total 23 646 2 874 20 772

Table 5.2: Cambodian migrant workers sent officially to Malaysia. Source Chan, 2009 in

Vutha et.al. 2011

From the 893 child returnees in 2005, 93 have been victims of trafficking. [ IOM, 2011]

However, it is difficult to fight traffickers off since they are often perceived as helpful

in arranging the border crossing. Many of the returnees would not report them to theauthorities.

5.2.1.3 Migration to Malaysia

Migration to Malaysia crosses the GMS borders but remains in the ASEAN region.

With a GDP per capita 7 times higher than Cambodia (US $14 700 versus US $2 100),

Malaysia represents an attractive destination for people seeking employment abroad

[IM, 2011].

Due to distance and inaccessibility by land, migration to Malaysia is mainly legal,

but by overstaying their visas migrants become irregular [IOM, 2011].

Royal Government of Cambodia has signed in 1997 a labour export agreement to

Malaysia that gave the recruitment agencies the right to seek for workforce within the

country. Cambodian migrants to Malaysia are mainly female recruited by agencies and

offered jobs as domestic workers [Lee, 2006]. Table 5.2 shows the gender distribution

of registered Cambodian migrants in Malaysia from 1998 to 2009.

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The growing number of irregularities and abuses proper to the labour migration of

women to Malaysia determined the RGC to ban the recruitment, training and sending

of domestic workers.

According to the Phnom Penh post [PPP, 2012a], at least nine Cambodian women

died in 2011 while being domestic workers in Malaysia. According to the same source,

from January to March 2012, 26 girls needed psychological support as a result of their

employment as maids in Malaysia [PPP, 2012b]. Beatings, sleep deprivation, starvation,

raping, confiscation of documents are among the most common abuses the maids are

subjected to.Yet, the decision triggered different reactions as it may have, as a side effect, the

increase in number of irregularities the agencies would do, such as fake documents for

under-aged girls, to keep sending them abroad.

5.2.2 Irregular migration from Cambodia

Irregular migration represents a challenging issue all over the world due to its complexity

and to the effects it has on the origin and hosting communities, but more importantly,

to the migrants themselves [Vutha et al., 2011].

In Cambodia irregular migration is predominant as many people choose informal

channels to cross the border [Vutha et al., 2011] and [Maltoni, 2006]. In addition, many

of those that migrate legally overstay their visas and become irregular. Apart from

causes like poverty and lack of information, irregular migration is enforced also by

its advantage in terms of time and financial costs comparing to legal channels. The

estimated cost to migrate legally is between US $700$1 000 and the process takes

from three up to six weeks. Migrating irregularly costs between $70$100 and can be

arranged within few days [Sophal, 2009].

One other contributing factor to the irregular migration picture is the limited in-

The effects of climate change on international migration patterns. Case study: Cambodia

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