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THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF LICENCE-EXEMPT SPECTRUM Richard Thanki – ICSS, University of Southampton.
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Transcript of THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF LICENCE-EXEMPT SPECTRUM Richard Thanki – ICSS, University of Southampton.
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF LICENCE-EXEMPT SPECTRUM
Richard Thanki – ICSS, University of Southampton
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 2
Introduction
Me ICSS Microsoft
• 2009 and 2012 studies• former Ofcom economist and principal advisor to the Independent Spectrum Broker• current PhD researcher
• £12m institute at the University of Southampton• focused on complex adaptive systems, such as genetics, climate science and economics
• Important financial and technical assistance for the completion of the 2009 and 2012 studies
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 3
The success of licence-exemption
Cellu
lar
Radio
Tele
vision
Wi-F
i
Blue
toot
h
802.
15.4
RFID
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2008
Cap
ab
le d
evic
es s
old
(m
il-
lion
s)
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 4
The success of licence-exemption
Cellu
lar
Radio
Tele
vision
Wi-F
i
Blue
toot
h
802.
15.4
RFID
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
20082014
Cap
ab
le d
evic
es s
old
(m
il-
lion
s)
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 5
The role of licence-exempt spectrum in delivering access to broadband internet
Connecting all the people
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 6
The shape of smartphone traffic
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The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 7
The shape of smartphone traffic
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The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 8
The shape of smartphone traffic
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The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 9
The shape of smartphone traffic
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00%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%Scaled Wi-FiScaled Cellular
Time of day
Sh
are
of
tota
l sm
art
ph
on
e
traffi
c
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 10
Asia
Europe
N. America
S. America
Africa
Oceania
sites needed (8 x rise in peak traffic)sites needed (4 x rise in peak traffic)
140,000 to 450,000 extra sites required immediately (an additional 8 – 20%
sites worldwide) At a cost of $30 - $90
billion (very conservative)
A minimum of 9,000-18,000 in the UK
The number would escalate quickly in the coming years
Additional costs of mobile, absent Wi-Fi
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 11
The global digital divide, and the role of white space spectrum
Broadband remains unaffordable and unavailable for the majority
Many countries have invested in fibre backbones
But all existing models are too expensive without a dense population or large subsidies
12
The only model that has proven commercially viable in rural areas is that of WISPs
Area coverage limited by high frequency licence-exempt spectrum
TV White Spaces could supercharge the WISP model
potentially bring high quality broadband to hundreds of millions of unconnected people for a fraction of the cost of mobile technologies
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki
The global digital divide, and the role of white space spectrum
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 13
The role of licence-exempt spectrum in enabling machine-to-machine connectivity and the internet of things
Connecting everything else
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 14
The human internet
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Smart-phonesTabletsNotebookDesktops
Million
s o
f d
evic
es s
old
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 15
The human internet
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 16
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 17
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 18
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 19
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 20
The machine internet
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Microcontroller sales
Computer and smartphone sales
Un
it s
ale
s (
million
s)
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 21
The machine internet
In communications• Mobile phones• Fixed line phones• Fax machines• Routers
Inside PCs and Smartphones• Monitors• Touchscreens• Wi-Fi chipsets
In the home• TVs, DVD players• Games consoles• Toys• Appliances
In medicine• Dialysis machines• Defibrillators• Ventillators• Pacemakers
In vehicles• Antilock brakes• Fuel injection• Climate control• GPS
In the military• Aircraft• Armoured vehicles• Missiles• Radios
In cities• Street lighting• Traffic control systems• Toll booths
In the environment• Pollution/air quality
monitors• Weather stations
In industry• Control circuitry• Machine tools• Monitors/sensors
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 22
Connected examples
Connected Vine• Sensors to check
soil moisture, temperature and light intensity information
• Actuators to control drip irrigation system
• Trialed and described by Xiang 2011
Connected Bridge• Wireless sensors
monitor structural integrity
• Products in use from Motorola, Innodev, Microstrain etc.
• Systems described by Xu 2004, Pakzad 2008, Harms 2010
Connected Heart• Pacemakers and
internal defibrillators constantly monitor heart activity
• Can upload information and be programmed wirelessly
• Developed by Elmqvist 1958, Mirowski 1978
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 23
Economic value possibilities from the IoT Today Cisco and
Ericsson predictions
Our prediction
Number of connected devices
4 bn 50 bn 100 bn
Forecast Year 2012 2020 2020
Pairwise connections
8 × 1018 1.25 × 1021
5 × 1021
Ratio against today 1 156 625
Even if each new machine connection generates only one-hundredth of the value of one of today’s human connections, the economic value generated by the internet by 2020 would be $1.4 to $2.2 trillion per year – around five times the value generated by the internet today.
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 24
The role of licence-exempt spectrum in the IoT
Share of machine connections
LicensedLicence-exempt
Licence-exempt connections will dominate the internet of things
Technical considerations Latency/network control Battery life and energy
usage Options – Wi-Fi,
Bluetooth, Zigbee etc…
Cost considerations Substantially cheaper
chipsets No ongoing subscription
fees
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 25
The role of white space spectrum in enabling the IoT
White spaces can deliver: broadband speeds excellent obstacle penetration low power usage
Europe has no broadband-suitable licence-exempt spectrum below 1GHz
Hindering smart grid deployment (in the UK up to 1/5 of home meters are beyond the reach of mobile networks)
Licence-exempt technologies dominate smart grid in US where suitable spectrum is available
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 26
How networks built using licence-exempt spectrum help to reduce the fragility of telecommunication networks
Resilience and adaptability
The Importance of Licence-Exempt Spectrum 27
Robust human and natural systems
Examples of natural and human resilient and adaptable systems
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 28
Creating diverse architectures
Without LE With LE
The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 29
The role of white space spectrum
In emergencies telecommunications networks often fail specialised personnel or equipment may not be available licence-exempt equipment can be repurposed easily.
Value of Wi-Fi seen in response to Japanese Tsunami, Hurricane Katrina and the Haiti earthquake, etc.
Often the first networks to go back up FON made 500,000 Wi-Fi hotspots in Japan open access
The range and penetration of white spaces is ideal for this purpose, especially if there is rubble and structural damage
Japan is investigating the use of white space technology specifically for this purpose