The Disrupted City - Presented at Smart City Startups 2015 by Ramez Naam
216
THE DISRUPTED CITY RAMEZ NAAM @ramez
-
Upload
stonly-baptiste -
Category
Technology
-
view
778 -
download
1
Transcript of The Disrupted City - Presented at Smart City Startups 2015 by Ramez Naam
THEDISRUPTED
CITY
RAMEZ NAAM @ramez
14 YEARS IN TECH
RAMEZ NAAM
Ramez Naam @ramez
NOW TEACHING IMPACTS OF EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES
NOW TEACHING ON IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
Addicted to Growth
Aivaris Zukis
CHALLENGES
TRANSPORTATION
50 Billion Hours~7% of US GDP
BIKES / NON CAR TRANSPORT
Miami Bike Lanes
Linfield College
ENVIRONMENT
Dhy
Sam Beebe
Kansas University
NATIONAL DROUGHT
Linfield College
CLIMATE CHANGE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE SINCE 1880 (degrees F)
Linfield College
GlobalWarmingArt.com
GlobalWarmingArt.com
GlobalWarmingArt.com
European PressPhoto Agency
Andrey Smirnov
Xinhua
Chongqing
SHARED PROSPERITY
SHARED PROSPERITY
LOTSOF
CHALLENGES
ARE WE
SCREWED?
Terry Luns
Marvin Greene
Cleveland State University
Cleveland State University
Brent Durken
OVERCOME CHALLENGES
BEFORE
SMOG IN NEW YORK CITY, 1966
NASA
NASA
LeadBenzeneSulfur DioxideAcid RainWater PollutionSmogParticulatesAsbestosCFCs…
CrimeTeen PregnancyElderly PovertyInfectious DiseaseDrunk DrivingDriving Deaths
HOW?
Not Exhausted, Multiplies Other Resources
INNOVATINGIN:
1. POLICY
2. TECHNOLOGY
3. BUSINESS
POLICY
BIZTECH
1. POLICY INNOVATION
NASA
CFC Release (thousands of tons)
LeadBenzeneSulfur DioxideAcid RainWater PollutionSmogParticulatesAsbestosCFCs…
Commons
MARKET FAILURE
“ECONOMY DESTROYED”
BARRIERSTO
CHANGE
2. TECH INNOVATION
Michael O’Donnell
$100 TRILLION
TO BUILD IPHONE 6 WITH 1940s TECH
$0
COST OF COMPUTING GOES TO ZERO{AND OF STORAGE, BANDWIDTH, COORDINATION,
DISINTERMEDIATION, ETC..}
Moore’s Law for Solar PV
AMD
Cost of Solar Power
CROSSOVER: STARTING NOW
$77.00
$0.50
150x Price Decline
3. BUSINESS MODEL INNOVATION
POLICY
BIZTECH
POLICY
BIZTECH
TRANSPORTATION
TRILLIONS OF MILES DRIVEN VS. DOT FORECAST
It’s the Economy, Stupid!
DRIVING DECLINED BEFORE CRASH
DRIVING CORRELATES ONLY WEAKLY WITH GASOLINE PRICES
MILLENNIALS VALUE PHONES > CARS
ONLINE DISPLACES TRAVEL
WANT TO BE ONLINE DURING TRAVEL
MULTIPLE FACTORS
1. ECONOMY
2. URBAN DENSITY
3. OWNING ACCESS
4. TRAVEL ONLINE
5. WANT TO BE ONLINE DURING TRAVEL
IT’S NOT GOING TO STOP
1 MILLION MILES DRIVEN ZERO ACCIDENTS
34,000 lives a year in US
1 million worldwide
NHTSA: $871 Billion
29 cents / mile
50 Billion Hours~7% of US GDP
3 parking spaces / car60% of land in LA
IN HALF?
OR DOUBLE?
DENSITY?
OR SPRAWL?
POLICY
BIZTECH
Linfield College
ENVIRONMENT
POLICY
BIZTECH
10,000 x
10 Seconds of Sunlight
= 1 Day of Humanity’s Energy Use
1 Hour of Sunlight
= 1 Year of Humanity’s Energy Use
31 GW
318 GW
10x Growth11 Years
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
Wind Cost Per Kwh (US)U
S c
en
ts p
er
kw
h
$0.55 / kwh
$0.05 / kwh
10x Price Decline
LARGER WIND TURBINES
DATA AND ALGORITHMS
LOW SPEED WIND
LOW SPEED WIND
Cost of Solar Power
$77.00
$0.50
100x Price Decline
<1% of Earth’s Land Area Could Power Humanity.
3 parking spaces / car60% of land in LA
1.3 GW
137 GW 100x Growth13 Years
CONTINUING RESEARCH
SOLAR VS NEW FOSSIL ELECTRICITY
S O
L A R
RENT VS OWNAGENCY PROBLEM
RENT VS OWN, AGAIN
SHARED PROSPERITY
SHARED PROSPERITY
THREE QUESTIONS
CAN WE BOOST SOCIAL MOBILITY?
CAN WE LOWER THE COST OF LIVING?
CAN WE OUTRACE AUTOMATION?
CAN WE BOOST SOCIAL MOBILITY?
POLICY
BIZTECH
CAN WE LOWER THE COST OF LIVING?
$0
COST OF COMPUTING GOES TO ZERO{AND OF STORAGE, BANDWIDTH, COORDINATION,
DISINTERMEDIATION, ETC..}
Cost of Solar Power$77.00
$0.50
150x Price Decline
COST OF HousingHealthcareTransportationFoodEnergy
?
CAN WE OUTRACE AUTOMATION?
$500,000 (2008) to $22,000 (2013) 23x in 5 years
Technologies
Industrial Robots
Crisis
Cleveland State University
Brent Durken
Addicted to Growth
Aivaris Zukis
SMOG IN NEW YORK CITY, 1966
Not Exhausted, Multiplies Other Resources
THEDISRUPTED
CITY
RAMEZ NAAM @ramez
