INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR LAHORE

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• Climate change is attributed mostly to the rapidly increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO2 from human activities in the agriculture, forestry, energy, waste and industry sectors

• Energy (power and transport), Waste and Industry, sectors which contribute greatly to GHG emissions, are urban-related activities

What is Climate Change?

Source: University of Colorado

Source: Government of Canada website

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Asian Trends - Energy

Energy consumption 1980 – 2030– Asia: 70% of global growth in energy demand– Non-OECD Asia: energy use triples between 2004 - 2030– Coal use growing in Asia, declining in the West

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/press/images/06-03-1.gif

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Trends – Climate change

• Energy-related carbon emissions 2003 - 2030– Carbon emissions to grow worldwide but faster in Asia

– Main contributors are power generation and transport

http://www.accf.org/images/Test399Fig8.gif

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Pakistan Trend Coarse Suspended Particulate Matters in Air PM10

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Multan Lahore Karachi Peshawer Quetta Faisalabad Rawalpindi

1030895

230

834 910 870

709

Safe Limit

Source: EPAs Punjab , Sindh, NWFP 2006

Safe Limits: WHO Guidelines: 120 g/m3Japanese Standards: 200 g/m3

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• Climate change impact depends on type of pollutant

• Ozone (tropospheric ) contributes to warming (positive radiative forcing)

• Aerosols offset radiative forcing (producing a cooling effect)

Causes and impact: air pollution influences climate change (long-term)

Source: IPCC Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment ReportClimate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policy Makers

Image Source: IPCC, 2001. Third Assessment Report – The Scientific Basis

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Impacts: Climate change ALSO influences air pollution (short term)

Probability of exceeding O3 limit in Ispra, Italy (Van Dingenen et al., in preparation)• Increased temperatures (warming) increase probability of

exceeding air quality guidelines for ozone• Direct impact of climate change on particulate matter has not

been established

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Policy integration: IPCC supports co-benefits approach

Integrating air pollution abatement and climate change mitigation policies offers potentially large cost reductions

compared to treating those policies in isolation”

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

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Objectives of the co-benefits approach

• Overlap climate change and air pollution– Similar causes (e.g. energy use)

– Climate change affects air pollution and vice versa

– Air pollution affects short-term climate

• Mitigation measures therefore bring multiple benefits (“co-benefits”)

– Reduced GHG emissions and air pollution

– Reduced energy use (= increased energy security)

– Improved public health

– Reduced traffic congestion and road safety

– Reduce mitigation costs

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Co-benefits: a simple definition

• Killing (at least) two birds with one stone

– Climate change

– Air pollution

– Energy security

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Integrating AQM and Climate Change

• Energy use– Domestic– Industrial – Power generation

• Transport– Road transport– Shipping– Aviation– Rail

GHG Emission inventories

Air pollutant Emission

InventoriesCommon weaknesses:• Reliable Activity data

• Emission factors

Integrated Inventories based on common methodologies

AQMClimate Change

Mitigation

Climate Change

Adaptation

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What Project will do

1. Quantify the existing air quality and GHGs data

• Identify existing air quality, GHGs and meteorological data• Identify main potential air pollution sources • Perform dispersion modelling • Design and perform screening study

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2. Establish Quality Assurance/Quality Control Procedures

• Review and Set up• Monitor data quality control

3. Create a database for AQMS, both monitoring data and model calculations

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4. Establish and test Air Quality Management models

• Adapt atmospheric dispersion models to Lahore• Install GIS system for Lahore• Collect population data for exposure estimates

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5. Undertake emission inventories

• Prepare data collection procedures• Gap analyses and complete emission inventory• Collect emission factors to use in the AirQUIS (software

developed by NILU) emission models

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6. Perform different model calculations for handling AQMS (Impact Assessment & Air Pollution Control Strategies)

• Undertake source assessment • Undertake air quality and exposure assessment • Conduct impact assessment • Conduct cost-benefit analysis

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7. Capacity Building and Awareness raising in AQMS (Undertake institutional building & training)

• Undertake needs assessment of partners • Develop and conduct training in monitoring and analysis• Develop and conduct training in data acquisition and database

systems• Develop and conduct training in assessment and reporting of air

quality data

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8. Disseminate Information

• Develop advocacy material• Design of reporting system, AQI (Air Quality Index)• Establish public web-portal for air quality data

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9. Next Steps

• Proposal Development • Sharing with Punjab EPD for feedback• Review of proposal based on the feedback received.• Submission to Planning Commission for funding

consideration