The Collapse of Oil Prices – Implications and...
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The Collapse of Oil Prices – Implications and Risks
Colin P. Fenton
19 February 2015 Oslo Energy Forum
420 West 118th Street, New York NY, 10027 | @ColumbiaUEnergy | energypolicy.columbia.edu | [email protected]
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Why did oil prices collapse in 2H2014? Great Deflation or the Ascent of Risk? What are the implications and risks from here?
Objectives for this 15-minute brief:
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After years of range-bound motion, oil prices swooned by 60% in seven months. Why?
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Source: Bloomberg, Platt’s
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One of the most important factors is among the least recognized: a subtle liberalizing in US trade policy.
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Source: Bloomberg, EIA, Platt’s
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US crude exports are now 10X larger than the normal activity of the past decade. A “wall” came down.
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Source: Bloomberg, EIA
Canada
Rest of World
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US data show no crude shipments to Japan in 2014. But Japanese import stats pick up 9,567 b/d in October.
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Source: MITI, Blacklight Research. Note = units in kl, except for annual sums in kbd, unless otherwise noted.
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The US export outlet increases AB supply, displaces imports into Canada, and redraws the global cost curve.
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$0$20$40$60$80
$100$120$140$160$180$200
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Saudi Arabia -Conventional
Iraq - Conventional US - ConventionalChina -
Conventional
North America - Shale oil
EU - Biodiesel
North America - EthanolMiddle East - GTL
North America - Oil sands
South America - Ultra-deep water
1H2014 global petroleum supply curve (US$ per barrel, y-axis; mbd, x-axis)
Source: Rystad, Corporate reports, DOE, IEA, OECD, RFA, USDA, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: Ultra-deep water is defined as 1500+ meters.
• Saturation: find new markets
• To lower US product prices
• Midterm elections, Congress
• Curb behavior of petro-states
US rationale for shift in export policy
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The US export outlet allows international arbitrage and reduces pressure to clear through crude differentials.
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Source: Bloomberg, EIA, Platt’s
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Had USA not loosened trade restrictions, world grades would not have fallen as sharply. Instead, convergence.
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Source: Bloomberg, EIA, Platt’s
Max-Min Spread: June 20, 2014: $29.88 Jan 23, 2015: $15.50
WCS at trough $31.99
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The non-US factors were also important. But 2014 was a tale of two kinds of supply shocks within OPEC.
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Iraq: surprising success in face of IS Libya: a surge of hope, then dashed
Source: OPEC Source: OPEC
0
0.5
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Jan-
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Apr-
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Jan-
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Apr-
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Jul-1
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-13
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Jul-1
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Iraqi crude oil productionmillion b/d
On the threshold of 4.0 mbd, if not already past it.
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The path of China’s crude imports reveals a competitive sensitivity to geostrategic risk, opportunity, and price
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Source: China Customs, ICE, EIA, Blacklight Research
694
39
-467
750
74
-438-541
-235
515
-560
-80
860
262
$106 $109 $108 $108 $109$112
$106$103
$95
$86
$70
$57$53
$40
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China crude oil imports, relative to trend, plotted against Brent spot oil price(Left) thousand b/d above or below trend, (Right) average oil price in $/bbl
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The 2014 soft patch in Chinese import demand has come…and gone.
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Source: China Customs, Blacklight Research
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Energy market risk is not static. The new year brings new challenges and extension of some old.
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Supply Demand
• Refinery strikes (product)
• Plummeting rig count
• Capex cuts: 25% - 50%
• Layoffs: 7% - 10%
• Administrative savings
• Egypt/Libya, “IS”
• Ukraine?
• Refinery strikes (crude)
• European QE
• West Coast port strikes
• Greek Debt Crisis
• Extremes in US weather
• Cash and carry storage
• Ukraine?
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Why did oil prices collapse in 2H2014? Great Deflation or the Ascent of Risk? What are the implications and risks from here?
Where does this leave us?
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The recent price collapse is historically important and comparable in scope to 1986, 2008, 1998, & 1991. But…
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The Ascent of Risk: transit between tails feels extreme
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Source: ICE, Blacklight Research
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Familiar terrain, though 1985-86 collapse was stronger (-67% v -59%) and steeper (131 days v 217 days)
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Source: EIA, NYM, Blacklight Research
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US Isorevenue: US can trade price for market share
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In 2014, US NGLs became larger than the total crude output of either Mexico, Iran, or Nigeria.
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Source: BPSR, EIA, Blacklight Research
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Russia Isorevenue: this is going to cost $200Bn per year.
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Conversation in March 2014 focused on gas, not oil. But Russia relies heavily on oil sales to Europe for earnings. earnings
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The relative value of Russian exports to Europe, 2013 data (x-axis) number of European countries importing from Russia, (y-axis) Europe’s share of total Russian exports. Note: bubble indicates relative size.
Source: Russia and European customs data, J.P. Morgan Research
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Saudi Arabia Isorevenue: can survive for long time on large reserves of dollars and low costs.
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Why did oil prices collapse in 2H2014? Great Deflation or the Ascent of Risk? What are the implications and risks from here?
Implications and risks
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Before the plunge, Canadian oilsands were projected to account for 28% of global supply growth thru 2030.
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As lower price prompts huge cuts to capex, what is the new plan to fill this gap? LTO? NGV? Solar to liquids?
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The diesel – natural gas spread, though narrowed, is still open and it is likely to widen again.
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World liquids supply growth depends on US tight oil.
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US growth > all others combined Oil output is falling in most countries
Source: BP Statistical Review (2014), Blacklight Research Source: BP Statistical Review (2014), Blacklight Research
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217137 135
87 71 59 58 52 42 35 23 21 20 16 15 15 15 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 20
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Liquids production growth by country, 2013thousand b/d. These top 30 growers = +2276 kbd.
-2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -6 -7 -8 -8 -10 -13 -15 -20 -20 -24 -27 -27 -28 -38 -47 -51-68 -76
-95 -95-112-125
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Iran
Liby
a
Liquids production growth by country, 2013thousand b/d. These bottom 30 growers = —1918 kbd.
(2013) Number of countries who grew liquids production by > 200 kbd: 2
(2013) Number of countries who lost liquids production by > 100 kbd: 5
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Global petroleum balance tightened by 1.3 mbd from 2009 through 2013, despite +4.3 mbd US surplus.
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Source: EIA, IEA, Company Reports, BPSR, Blacklight Research
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As US LTO production growth slows toward 500 kbd or less, volatility is more likely to be >30% than <25%.
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WTI
cru
de o
il pr
ice
vola
tility
(3
0-da
y, a
nnua
lized
)
Year on Year Growth in Crude Production from 7 US tight oil basins (kbd) Source: EIA, NYM, Blacklight Research
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Global manufacturing activity through early 2015 looks solid overall, with Europe the notable exception.
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PMI (manufacturing) heat map: economic scale moves from below normal (deepest red) to above normal (deepest green)
Source: Government and industry sources, J.P. Morgan Commodities and Economics Research
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And US is dependent on an enormous decline rate lurking beneath its statistics: capital needs are huge.
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Legacy LTO decline rate (mom): Total barrels lost per month to decline is now 330 kbd
Net growth per month
New production growth (mom): net growth has been strong because this number is now over 400 kbd, but what happens when capex slows?
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‘Ukraine’ and ‘Xinjiang’ both mean “frontier” or “edge”. As in the Caucasus, ethnicity differs from “the center”.
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Source: University of Texas
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What risk do ISIS-affiliated Uighurs pose to the security of oil facilities in Singapore or Shanghai?
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The Straits Times www.straitstimes.com Published on Sep 16, 2014
Indonesia ISIS probe throws focus on Xinjiang link Scores from China's province nabbed in South-east Asia in recent months By Zakir Hussain & Kor Kian Beng EVEN as Indonesian police continue to investigate four ethnic Uighurs arrested in Sulawesi over the weekend on suspicion of terror links, attention is being focused on the rising number of this group from China's restive Xinjiang province making their way to South-east Asia in recent months. Scores of illegal immigrants from Xinjiang have been arrested in Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam, and analysts say the trend is linked to rising violence in their home province over the past year. Many of them arrive in the hope of seeking asylum in Turkey, a country that has been sympathetic to their plight given their ethnic and linguistic kinship, even though few have made it there. "The vast majority do not support separatism or terrorism," Dr Rohan Gunaratna of Singapore's International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research told The Straits Times.
Uighurs stepped up violent protests in Xinjiang in Spring 2014 when the world was watching China closely during a state visit by Putin. Are Uighurs really traveling to SE Asia? If yes, why?
May 2014: trial of 55 “extremists” in a soccer stadium in Xinjiang
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Flashpoint: rhetoric about “loose nukes” has picked up
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Jan 22: “3 Minutes to Midnight” Factors to consider
• End of Nunn-Lugar
• Ukraine = no compromise
• Egypt has bombed Libya
• Terror in France/Denmark
• Japan loses a citizen to IS
• Cyber attacks
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US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: From Defensive Cupboard to Offensive Policy Lever?
• Max rate of draw = 4.4 million b/d for 90 days = Russia
• Steady draw for:
• 1 year = 1.89 million b/d = Norway
• 2 years = 946 thousand b/d = Oman or UK
• 3 years = 631 thousand b/d = Argentina
• 4 years = 473 thousand b/d = Thailand
• 5 years = 379 thousand b/d = Australia
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SPR as peaceful/lawful projection of US power through competitive markets
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Conclusions: The Ascent of Risk
• New fundamentals, new trade rules, new walls
• Same markets, same economics
• Russia will likely lose market share: 500 to 2000 kbd by 2020
• Spot prices have likely bottomed
• Vol here to stay, but it’s a return to normal.
• It is not possible to predict future prices.
• We can only frame and weigh risk scenarios, then manage.
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Thank you For more information contact Colin P. Fenton Fellow Email [email protected] Phone 646-256-5062