Jon Swanson | GIST 1140 | September 22, 2015

The Changing Face of Lincoln

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN LANCASTER COUNTY, NEBRASKA 1970-2010

Photo Courtesy of LPS

The City of Lincoln is the Seat of Lancaster County and the Capitol of the State of

Nebraska. Over the last fourty-five years it has undergone a process that has transformed

it from an un-diverse city to one that is home to people of many races, backgrounds and

homelands. This paper will map these changes from 1970 through 2010 by using data

from decennial Censuses at the Tract level for Lancaster County to calculate a Diversity

Index. Particular attention will be given to Census Tract 9, in north-central Lincoln.

The purpose of this study is to

document the process of change and to locate

it spatially. It is also to measure the rate of

change. In short, it is to provide a baseline of

data that can be used for further studies.

Information desired is the compositions and

percentages of populations in each Tract and

the Diversity Index (DI) for each. The

percentage of change in the DI is also

wanted. Spatially, the location and

distribution of Low to High diversity Tracts

is also helpful in future analysis.

The data for this presentation was obtained from the Census Bureau, the National

Historical Geographic System of the Minnesota Population Center, the MapUSA project

of Brown University and ESRI Online.

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The difficulties in a study of this sort revolve around the changing

methods of the Census Bureau in its enumeration and shifting Tract boundaries.

For example, Track 36.01, which corresponds to the Nebraska State Penitentiary,

shows zero population in 1980 although it is populated and among the most

diverse in the other four Censuses. Despite extensive research, the author was

unable to determine the reason for this. Another obstacle is the changing way the

Census counts population. In 1970 the Census had three racial categories: White,

“Negro” and Other. In 1980 they added the categories, Other-“Spanish” and

Other-“Non-Spanish”. Later Censuses have other changes and it is something that

the reader should keep in mind while studying the data. Tract boundaries change

over time, as well, because as population increases and shifts, the need to have

relatively balanced Tracts forces changes and increases the challenge of analysis.

The method of analysis chosen was to calculate each group’s

percentage of total population in each Tract. From that data, the DI was calculated

for each Tract and Normalized by percentage of total population. In general, that

analysis shows less diversity in the rural areas of Lancaster County and increasing

diversity as one moves towards the city center. While the entire County becomes

more divers over time, the pattern holds, with the Tracts in the center being the

most diverse. In addition, nearly all Tracts show a decline in the percentage of

White Population.

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While several Tracts showed

interesting results, in analyzing these

changes over time it is helpful to focus

on one that is representative of broader

trends. The chosen area is Tract 9. It is

located in north central Lincoln, roughly

bordered on the south by O Street, on

the east by N. 48th Street, in the north by

Huntington Street and on the west by N.

33rd Street. It was chosen because its

total population has remained fairly

stable while changing more

demographically and little spatially from 1970 to 2010. In 1970, Tract

9 had a population of 3,505, of whom 98.9% were White, 0.54% were Black and 0.51%

were Other. Its DI was 0.020945, or Medium Low by classification. By 1980, its

population was 3,334 with 94.7% White, 1.58% Black, 0.2% Native American, 2.5%

Asian, 0% Hispanic and 0.89% Other. The DI was 0.100683, an increase of 380.7%,

bringing it into the Medium class. While the percentage of Black population tripled, the

major change here seems to be the increase in residents of Asian ancestry, although it is

impossible to say because they were not counted separately in 1970.

By 1990, the

trend continued. The Tract had a population of 3,264 with 91.3% being White, 2.75%

Black, 0.42% Native American, 4.19% Asian and Pacific Islander, 1.25% Other and

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new category established by the Census, 3% said they were Multi-Racial. The DI for

2000 had a Medium High classification of 0.354322, an increase of 26.27%. During this

decade, the proportion of Hispanic residents continued to climb, along with the number

of Black inhabitants while Asian representation leveled off. The increase in the DI was

less dramatic, probably because having started out so low; changes in population will

affect it less.

Finally, in 2010 this area of north-

central Lincoln had a population of 3,749

with 78.7% of them being White, 3.46%

Black, 0.64% Native American, 7.68%

Asian, 6.93% Hispanic, 0.21% Other,

2.34% Multi-Racial, and 0% for the newly

established category of Pacific Islander. It

stayed in the Medium High class with a DI

of 0.454159, which was

a 28.18% increase since 2000. The trend of

Asian and Hispanic growth continued.

Overall, from 1970 to 2010, the Diversity Index rose by 2,064.54% and the percentage of

the White population dropped by 20.45% in Census Tract 9.

This area of Lincoln may have shown more dramatic change than other

parts of the city, but it is indicative of a trend. Lancaster County is becoming more

diverse and less segregated. The reasons for this are beyond the scope of this paper, but it

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is clear that this process will continue and require citizens, neighbors and decision makers

to accept, if not embrace it.

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Sources

ArcGIS Online. Map Service. City_Limits. Kurt_Elder. (2015, September 12). Retrieved September 12, 2015, from https://www.arcgis.com/home/

Geography and Data. (2015, September 5).United States Census Bureau. Retrieved September 5, 2015, from http://www.census.gov/geo/maps-data/index.html

MapUSA: Data Download. Brown University. (2015, September 7). Retrieved September 7, 2015, from http://www.s4.brown.edu/mapusa/Default.aspx

Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 2.0. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2011. Retrieved September 1, 2015, from http://www.nhgis.org

Cover page photo URL

http://wp.lps.org/clinton/files/2012/11/IMG-20121116-00030-300x225.jpg

1970 map photo URL

http://www.southerneddesk.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Segregation_Associated-Press.jpg

1980 map photo URL

http://static01.nyt.com/images/2010/06/14/us/HALEY-2/HALEY-2-popup.jpg

1990 map photo URL

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2014/05/11/sunday-review/11KIRPsub1/11KIRPsub1-videoSixteenByNine600.jpg

2000 map photo URL

http://archives.hud.gov/offices/cpd/communitydevelopment/cdbg30/wa/lakewood/line.jpg

2010 map photo URL

http://theredwire.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/1school-700x561.jpg

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