The Caribbean in a Turbulent World Rev2

8/3/2019 The Caribbean in a Turbulent World Rev2

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N O R M A N G I RVA N2 2 N D S E P T E M B E R 2 0 0 9

THE CARIBBEAN IN A TURBULENT WORLD


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The Crisis and the Caribbean--Economic

Declines in tourism, merchandise exports receipts, remittances &capital flows.1.2% contraction in sub-regional GDP for 2009, a decline of 8%relative to 2006.Slowdown expected to last through 2010.By September 2009, 7 Caribbean countries had resorted to IMFassistance for crisis related financing. Jamaica announced a 20%budget cut 5 months into the 2009/10 fiscal year,Bahamas, Barbados and Jamaica were most affected countriesdue to tourism; Jamaica suffered a double blow due to the closureof a large part of its alumina industry.


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Financial Institution Failures

While the failures of CL Financial in T&T and Stanford International in Antigua &Barbuda were precipitated by the global financial crisis, the failures exposed majordeficiencies in legal and institutional systems for financial sector regulation in thepublic interest within the two countries concernedThe failures also show the need for a region-wide regulatory regime; to prevent

regional financial firms from evading regulations in one country by improper practicesin anotherA regional regulatory regime would be provided by the Caricom Financial ServicesAgreement and the Caricom Investment Code, which have not been adoptedRegulatory failure is also related to the political and economic influence wielded bypowerful individuals & firms over political parties and governments; and show theneed for more transparency and accountability

The C.L. Financial failure has so far cost the T&T govt. at least TT$5 billionThe failure of Stanford International Bank has led to lawsuit from depositorsagainst the govt. Of A&B, who are claiming d amages of U$1,225 million,equivalent to almost 600% of the GDP


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Social and political impact

Socio-economic tensions over intra-Caribbean migrationBarbadoss policy to remove undocumented Caricom nationalsled to tensions with Guyana and St Vincent/Grenadines (seeAntigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, and Suriname have also been

reported to have initiated deportations of undocumented non-nationalsConcern over rising unemployment and competition for jobsfrom nationals may be slowing down implementation of existing

Caricom-CSME commitments for free movement of certaincategories of labour, e.g. artisans.Longer-term social and political fall-out uncertain

Go to http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra- caribbean-migration/ for more documentation
http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/http://www.normangirvan.info/the-contemporary-caribbean/intra-caribbean-migration/


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Global Reconfiguration

The conventional world map, with North at the top, is conveys a subliminal

message on the global relation of powerBut geo-economic power is shifting towards the East & the Global South


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Share of World GDP

Source: World Bank WDR 2009: 106; author

In 2020, 3 of the worlds 4 largest economies will be Asian,with China #1

EIUs 2006 Foresight Report http://graphics.eiu.com/files/ad_pdfs/eiuForesight2020_WP.pdf

1820 1950 1998 2020

ASIA 56 15 30 42

CHINA & INDIA 49 9 17 30


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Hemispheric Reconfiguration - Latin Americas New Orientation 7 Features

1. Politics dramatic growth in role of social movementsrepresenting the poor, indigenous, Afro-Latin Americans, women, environmental groups e.g. World Social Forum

2. Move towards Participatory democracy and new models of civilization some governments have rewritten constitutions

3. Ideology most governments are disenchanted with neo-liberal policies of the Washington Consensus

4. Centrality of continental regional integration as means of consolidating Latin American unity, economic and socialdevelopment, independence

5. Centrality of sovereignty and self-determination ; opposedto US hegemony

6. Institutionality UNASUR, South Bank, Rio Group, ALBA 7. Key leadership roles of Brazil and Venezuela


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Caricoms main trade & investment links with centres in relative decline.US 48.7% of regional exports and 35.9% of imports in 2001-2006U.S. 53% of tourist arrivals, Europe 23%

Spain and U.S. main sources of foreign investmentMagnifies the regional impact of economic downturn in thesecountries

China takes only 4.1 percent of regional exportsAsia insignificant fraction of tourism

This limits potential spin-offs from high growth performing AsianeconomiesCaricom countries should seek to develop their trade-investment-tourismlinkages with Asian economiesIndividual countries evidently lack the capacity to adequately servicerelations with the entire Asian continent.A joint Asian strategy by Caricom would share costs and exploitsynergies.Requires improved governance framework for Caricom and institutionalcapability to handle its external economic relations.


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Example: Declaration of Indigenous People 2009 World Social Forum, Belem

The crisis of Western capitalist civilization requires us to rebuild and reinvent new and different options of coexistence between nature and society, democracy, the state and patterns of consumption. It points to theadoption new ways of living and in this context, it is not just that other worlds are possible, they are urgent, indeed they are being and have beenbuilt from the time of the first victims of the most barbaric forms of capitalist violence in the / colonial / modern and contemporary era. We,the Indigenous Peoples and Communities, Originarios, Campesinos, Ribereos, Quilombolas, Afrodescendientes, Garfunas, Caboclos, Dalits,and others, and their children who migrated to the ghettoes of the cities,

and all the other excluded, invisible and untouchables of the planet whocontinue to resist, to strengthen and to update alternative forms of social,technological, ethical, political, economic, cultural and spiritualorganization of the human existence.


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Some ways in which LAs New Orientationhas impacted Caricom countries

Collapse of the FTAA negotiations due to oppositionof Mercosur and VenezuelaT&T had spent resources on the HQ campaign; Caricom hadspent resources on the negotiations

Petrocaribe 12 of 14 Caricom countries participate ALBA 3 Caricom countries are members All Caricom countries participated in the first LACsummit in Bahia (Brazil) December 2008Lack of consensus on the Declaration of POS at the5th SOA no collective signatureForeign policy positions of Caricom countries as

members of ALBA & of UNASUR


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The Honduras Coup dramatises key featuresof Latin Americas New Orientation

The coup of June 28, 2009, was precipitated by President Zelayas moves to takeHonduras in the direction of a participatory democracy and to join ALBA The coup was carried out by representatives of the traditional oligarchy, probably withsupport from the US military and right wing, anti-Chavez and anti-Cuban elements in WashingtonBut the coupists did not count on the determined and sustained popular resistance; now coalesced into the National Resistance Front a coalition of popular organizationsgrouping campesinos , poor communities, Garifunas (Afro-Hondurans), indigenousgroups, & womens organizations. This has prevented the coup government fromacquiring internal legitimacy and consolidating its powerTwo institutions of the New Orientation UNASUR and ALBA have played decisiveroles in the isolation of the coup regime; securing the support of the OAS and the United

Nations General Assembly and dragging a reluctant US Administration to oppose thecoup government, at least officially The role of Brazil, even more than Venezuela, has been crucial. Hence Zelaya was grantedrefuge in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa, securing the diplomatic protection of international conventions and the political protection of Brazil. The US can be dismissiveof Chavez, but not of Lula.


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Voices of the Honduran Resistancehttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/

Betty Vasquez of Movement of Women in Resistance of Santa BrbaraGarifuna leader Fanni Elizsabeth Solarzano Castillo from Triunfo de laCruz and National Black Fraternal Organization (OFRANEH)Indigenous leader Salvador Ziga from Civil Council of Popular andIndigenous Organizations of Honduras (COPINH)Garifuna leader Miriam Miranda from National Black FraternalOrganization of Honduras (OFRANEH)Indigenous leader Berta Cceres from Civil Council of Popular andIndigenous Organizations of Honduras (COPINH)Garifuna leader Teresa Reyes from Triunfo de la Cruz community on

Honduran north coast Afro-Honduran leader Alfredo Lopez from National Black FraternalOrganization of Honduras (OFRANEH)Peasant Leader Rafael Alegria from Via Campesina Honduras
http://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/09/betty-vasquez-of-movement-of-women-in.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/08/interview-with-fanni-castillo-young.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/08/honduran-indigenous-leader-salvador.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/07/entrevista-con-miriam-miranda-de.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/07/indigenous-leader-berta-caceres-if.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/07/interview-with-teresa-reyes-garifuna.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/07/interview-with-vice-president-of.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/07/telephone-interview-with-campesino.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/07/telephone-interview-with-campesino.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/07/interview-with-vice-president-of.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/07/interview-with-teresa-reyes-garifuna.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/07/indigenous-leader-berta-caceres-if.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/07/entrevista-con-miriam-miranda-de.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/08/honduran-indigenous-leader-salvador.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/08/interview-with-fanni-castillo-young.htmlhttp://hondurasresists.blogspot.com/2009/09/betty-vasquez-of-movement-of-women-in.html


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Betty Vasquez Fanni Castillo Salvador Ziga

Miriam Miranda Berta CceresTeresa Reyes

Alfredo Lopez


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National Gathering of Afro-Honduran Youth Call for a November2010 Plebiscite so Honduran People Can Vote on a New

Constitution

Seventy-five young community organizers met on August 27, 28 and 29 in LaCeiba, Honduras, and authored this declaration calling for a November 2010

referendum for a new Constitution.


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http://www.comunidadandina.org/ingles/sudamerican.htm12 countries, 361 M pop.; $973 B GDP; 4 th largest world pop. and 5 th largestGDP - Brazil the driving force Guyana & Suriname includedFocal areas: Infrastructure; convergence of integration schemes FTA by2019; treatment of asymmetries; social cohesion; financial mechanisms;political dialogue, defenceInfrastructure Integration--IIRSA River & road network,telecommunications, energy: 31 high-impact projects of $10 billion selectedfor 2005-2010; 514 in portfolio costing $69 billion. www.iirsa.org

South Bank South American Defence CouncilForeign Policy coordination Honduras Coup, Colombia-US basescontroversy
http://www.comunidadandina.org/ingles/sudamerican.htmhttp://www.iirsa.org/http://www.iirsa.org/http://www.iirsa.org/http://www.iirsa.org/http://www.iirsa.org/http://www.iirsa.org/http://www.comunidadandina.org/ingles/sudamerican.htmhttp://www.comunidadandina.org/ingles/sudamerican.htmhttp://www.comunidadandina.org/ingles/sudamerican.htmhttp://www.comunidadandina.org/ingles/sudamerican.htmhttp://www.comunidadandina.org/ingles/sudamerican.htmhttp://www.comunidadandina.org/ingles/sudamerican.htmhttp://www.comunidadandina.org/ingles/sudamerican.htmhttp://www.comunidadandina.org/ingles/sudamerican.htmhttp://www.comunidadandina.org/ingles/sudamerican.htm


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ALBA Bolivarian Alliance For The People of Our America

Launched 2004 by Venezuela and CubaMembership now of nine countries including Bolivia,Nicaragua, Dominica, Honduras, Ecuador, Antigua

and Barbuda and St Vincent and the Grenadines 73 m. population, $669 billion GDPPurpose- to provide an alternative integrationmodel to neoliberal integration schemes based on

free trade and investor-friendly rulesExecuted by means of inter-governmentalagreements, not a treaty http://www.alternativabolivariana.org /


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ALBA PRINCIPLES AND RULES

Trade and investment to be instruments of fair and sustainable development witheffective participation of the State.Special and differentiated treatment for participating countries according to theirlevel of development and sizeEconomic complementarity and cooperation between countries to preserveefficient and productive specialization and balanced economic developmentCooperation and solidarity for a Continental fight against illiteracy provide freehealthcare and a scholarship programme.Creation of a Social Emergency FundIntegrated development of communications and transportProtection of the environmentEnergy integrationPromotion of intra-Latin American Investment through a Latin American

Investment Bank, a Bank of Development of the South and a Latin AmericanSociety of Reciprocal GuaranteesDefense of cultural identity: creation of TELESUR.Intellectual Property Rights to protect the patrimony of the region while not becoming an obstacle to cooperationHarmonization of positions in multilateral fora, including democratization of international organizations particularly the United Nations system.


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ALBA PRACTICES & PROJECTS

Petrocaribe - concessional financing for imports of crude oil not tied to ALBA membership but basedon ALBA principles of solidarity

Financial support for state-owned industries &physical & social infrastructureFinancial support for health & education thatdirectly benefit the poor

Non-reciprocal trading and financial arrangements ALBA Bank authorised capital $2 b., paid-up $1 b. ALBA Caribe Fund

ALBA Food Security Fund - $100 M initial capital


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ALBA TRADE AGREEMENTS

Non-reciprocity - Cuba agreed to grant duty-freeaccess to Venezuelan imports and to remove non-tariff barriers; while in return Venezuela has agreed toeliminate only non-tariff barriers on Cuban imports

Compensated trade - through direct productexchanges Dominica is allowed to pay for 40 percent of its Petrocaribe oil imports with exports of bananas

Trade agreements negotiated on a case-by-case basis ,allowing for flexibility of commitment according tocountry circumstances.

Reciprocal Credit Arrangements Venezuela-Cuba Agreement.


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Petrocaribe is now the largest single source of soft loans for the 16 beneficiary countries

Petrocaribe finances a portion of Venezuelan oil sales toCaribbean and Central American importing countries by means of loans payable over 25 years at 1-2 percent interest, with a two- year moratorium

The percentage of the sales value financed was formerly computed on a sliding scale that increased with the world marketprice of oil. In June 2009 this was reportedly changed to a flatrate of 50 percent

Petrocaribe loans from June 2005--December 2007 are estimatedat $1.2 B., to June 2009 it was said to be $1.4 B.

A calculation made one year ago showed Petrocaribe creditsexceeding U.S. Foreign Assistance commitments to most of theparticipating countries in 2005-2907;

IDB disbursements to 16 PC participating countries in FY 2008 isabout one-third that of Petrocaribe

In Jamaica PC credits for June 2005-June 2008 was $471;compared to $58 M US assistance for FYs 2005-2007


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ALBA SOCIAL COOPERATION ISPOWERED BY CUBA

30,000 Cuban doctors providing free medical services tothe poor in LAC

70,000 students are receiving training as healthprofessionals

Over 2 million made literate in literacy programmes 600,000 people have had their sight restored via Operation

Miracle 2000 Cuban scholarships per year for Venezuela, 5000

Cuban medical scholarships for Bolivia. Dominica - over 100 students attending Cuban medical and

nursing schools; approximately 75 Dominican students arein other Cuban schools. 2,000 Venezuelan and Cubanscholarships are available to qualified Dominican studentsin computer science, medicine, engineering, sports, physics,math, and agriculture.


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POTENTIAL NEGATIVES OF ALBA

Donor dependency Energy dependency Economic vulnerability Political vulnerability State-centric, as opposed to grassroots or community-baseddevelopmentCapital intensive, potentially environmentally damaging projectsTransparency/accountability issues

Potential for corruptionDemocratic, participatory governance should be integral to ALBA http://www.normangirvan.info/girvan-alba-caricom-may0/http://www.normangirvan.info/ahmed-honduras-coup-alba/
http://www.normangirvan.info/girvan-alba-caricom-may0/http://www.normangirvan.info/girvan-alba-caricom-may0/http://www.normangirvan.info/girvan-alba-caricom-may0/http://www.normangirvan.info/girvan-alba-caricom-may0/http://www.normangirvan.info/girvan-alba-caricom-may0/http://www.normangirvan.info/girvan-alba-caricom-may0/http://www.normangirvan.info/girvan-alba-caricom-may0/http://www.normangirvan.info/girvan-alba-caricom-may0/


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Latin America/CARICOM Relations

Events in 2008-2009 dramatised the growing alignment of Caricomand with the new LA groupings on key issues in relations with the USThe Cuban embargo issue at the 5 th Summit of the Americas Caricomhad always declared against the US embargo on Cuba; but two Caricomcountries also attended an ALBA summit prior to the 5 th Summit whichadopted a public declaration that there would be no signature of thedraft declaration because of its omission of this issueCaricom condemned the Honduran coup; but individual Caricom stateshave also joined ALBA, UNASUR, SICA and the OAS in taking firmpositions on the coupTwo Caricom states as UNASUR members have participated in thedebate over the Colombia-US bases agreement


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Caribbean Integration Initiatives

West Indies Federation (1958-1962)CARIFTA (1965-1973)Caricom I (1973-1989)Caricom II (1989-Present)OECS (1981- Present)Trinidad & Tobago- OECS Integration Initiative


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The Association of Caribbean States (ACS)

Failure to create an ACS FTA.

Failure to assume a critical role in political matters

between member or between members and anexternal party.

Success of the Caribbean Sea Initiative.

The Caribbean in a Turbulent World Rev2

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