1

driving AV deployment

The Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence

Automated Vehicles and

AAMVA: New Paradigms and

Great ResponsibilitiesAAMVA Region IV, Vancouver 2014

Paul Godsmark, B.Sc., M.I.C.E., C.Eng. pgodsmark@cavcoe.com

Chief Technology Officer & Co-Founder

03 June, 2014

Scale

‘Car2.0’

Impacts

AAMVA Role

2

Scale

3

Safety – 93% of crashes involve driver error

U.S.

1.9% to 6.0% GDP

32,479[2011] deaths

33,561[2012] deaths

2,220,000[2011] injured

2,360,000[2012] injured

$277bn[2010] economic cost

$871bn[2010] total societal

4

CANADA

4.9% GDP[2007]

2,006[2011] deaths

[2012] deaths

166,275[2011] injured

[2012] injured

[2007] economic cost

$62bn[2007] total societal

Vehicle Emissions

U.S.

58,000 premature deaths/yr

12yr lifespan av. reduction

MIT Study 2013

5

CANADA

Major health risk to the 32%

living within 500m of

highways or 100m of major

urban roads

All air pollution causes

21,000 premature deaths/yr

“More effective to remove

risk than treat 10 million

people.”

Congestion

U.S.

5.5 billion hours

2.9 billion gallons

$121 billion

6

CANADA

$1.5 - $5bn Toronto

Exponential Technology - Moore’s Law

7

Tra

nsis

tor

Count

A2

The

acceleration

is

acceleratingSiggi Becker

1837 Telegram

8

39 years later….

1876 Telephone

9

97 years later….

1973 Mobile phone

10

20 years later….

1993 Smartphone

11

14 years later….

2007 iPhone & App Store

12

5 years later….

2012 Social Media

13

2 years later….

2014 Wearables

14

In development….

2014? pCells (x100 wireless data and… ???)

15

Next year?….

2015? Project Tango (3D sensing)

16

Etc….

1837 Chicago Street

17

Telegraph invented

1879 (patent) -1885 Motorwagen

18

3 years after telephone

1910 Chicago Street

19

31 years after 1st car

1929 Chicago Street

20

50 years after 1st car

1950 Chicago Street

21

71 years after 1st car

1976 Chicago Street

22

97 years after 1st car

2014 Chicago Street

23

135 years after 1st car

‘Car1.0’

changed

how and where

we lived and worked

24

New Paradigms Require New Perspectives

25

Henry Ford:

“If I had asked

people what they

wanted, they would

have said faster

horses.”

‘Car2.0’

26

1950’s Autonomous Highway System

27

GM & RCA: Radio control and magnets

1986-2003 Ernst Dickmann’s VaMoRs

Mercedes Van

28

Eureka PROMETHEUS - Thousands of miles, up

to 110mph, 3 generations

1996 Argo Lancia Thema

29

From PROMETHEUS, 1,200 miles 94% autonomous

2004 DARPA Grand Challenge

30

‘Sandstorm’ CMU Red Team – 7.32 miles

2005 DARPA Grand Challenge

31

‘Stanley’ Stanford Racing, 150 miles, 6h:54m

2007 DARPA Urban Challenge

32

‘Boss’ CMU Tartan Racing, 60 miles urban, 4h:10m

2008 Levandowski’s Pribot

33

Delivered pizza across SF Bay bridge

2009 Google Prius

34

Google self-driving car team assembled

2010 Audi ‘Pikes Peak’

35

12 mile hill climb, 156 turns, 27min (cf 11m48s)

2011 AutoNOMOS Labs Berlin drive

36

50 miles of autonomous driving on Berlin roads

2012 Google Lexus 450h

37

300,000 miles testing on public roads

2013 Vislab BRAiVE, Parma

38

Rural-urban demo, in real, complex traffic, vision

2013 Daimler/Mercedes Bertha Benz Road Trip

39

60 mile rural-urban demo, vision based

2014 Induct Navia

40

Electric, 12mph, commercially available Jan ‘14

2014 Google ‘mastering city street driving’

41

700k miles, cyclists signals, construction zones

2014-2016 Google Prototype ‘Vehicle’ (NEV)

42

25mph, 100 pilot project CA for 2yrs, and then…

2014-2017 Volvo ‘Drive Me’

43

100 increasingly autonomous cars in Gothenburg

2020 Nissan Autonomous Drive

44

Commercially viable vehicles on road by 2020

This decade Daimler

45

Weber: “We want to be first…”

Automated Vehicle Characteristics

Sensors typically:

– LiDAR

– optical

– radar

– infrared cameras

– GPS

– wheel encoder

Combination

– 360°view,

– Monitors movements (real time)

– Reacts in milliseconds

46

The Point Cloud

47

The Self-Driving Car

Aim: Save 1,000,000 lives

>700,000 miles in self-drive mode (May 2014)

96,000 miles without intervention (April 2013)

– 45% confidence crash less than people

– 727,000 miles for 99% confidence crash less

Can be retrofitted or built as new

Fleet of up to 32(?) Prius and Lexus RX450H DriverlessCarHQ

Fleet of 100 to 200 low speed ‘prototypes’

48

NHTSA – National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

49

scary!very hard!

NHTSA Levels of Automation

50

AV Legislative & Regulatory Action

CANADA - Ontario to permit

pilot project to safely test AVs?

‘The US Is Ready to Make a $16

Billion Bet on Driverless Cars’“Energy Department Secretary Ernest Moniz hinted

Thursday [May 22, 2014] that auto suppliers

developing driverless-car features could be next in

line for more than $16 billion in unspent [Advanced]

technology [Vehicle Manufacturing] loan.”

The Detroit News, online, retrieved June 02, 2014:

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140522/AUTO01/305220120/1121/auto0104/U.S.-Energy-chief-says-

driverless-car-suppliers-may-qualify-for-tech-loan-funds

51

Impacts

52

How much more will

‘Car2.0’ change

how and where

we live and work?

53

Some Current Issues

KEY BENEFITS

Safety

Efficiency

Quality of life

Environmental

Sustainability

Economic

54

KEY CHALLENGES

• Technical

• Security

• Legal / Liability

• Privacy

• Job displacement

• Public acceptance

The New Paradigm…

When certified safe to drive unmanned:

can do work

make owners money

rapid market penetration

55

The new paradigm…Impacts:

Operational models - roads, logistics, etc.

Business models – freight, rentals, parking, taxis,

car-sharing, P2P, insurance etc.

Revenue models – industries, government, P3s

Almost all Government Ministries will be

affected.

Expect trillion dollar money flows; 10-25% GDP56

Possible Implementation Scenario

Assume NHTSA Level 4 unmanned capability (2017-19?):

1. Taxi/Trucking industry disrupts

2. Rental/Car Share/Ride Share/P2P models Adapt

3. Shared AV fleets emerge (disabled, seniors etc. suppressed demand)

4. Early-adopter Entrepreneurs hire out AVs

5. Competition - Transport as a Service (TaaS) develops

6. Bus service disrupts

7. Public Transit (LRT, BRT, Trams etc.) impacted

8. ‘Accidents’/Collisions significantly reduced

9. Vehicle size/weight reduces - Catalyst for Electric cars

10.Reduced urban parking – streets reclaimed

11.Total number of vehicles falls? – but VMT increases?

12.Many new business models emerge with societal impacts.57

Morgan Stanley Estimated Savings for US

58

Canada savings

=$120bn/yr

6.6% GDP

Bull / Bear

$0.7 to $2.2 trillion

4.4% to 14% GDP

Job Displacement

U.S.

3.5 million truck drivers

233,000 taxi / chauffeurs

2.4% of workforce

Directly impact 20% jobs?

Indirectly impact 60% of jobs?

CANADA

260,000 truck drivers

50,000 taxi / chauffeurs

1.7% of workforce

Some affected jobs:

Auto repair,

auto insurance,

traffic cops,

road safety,

tow-trucks,

driver training,

trauma surgeon,

healthcare,

organ/tissue donation,

bus driver,

parking attendants

AAMVA Role

60

Opportunities & Challenges for AAMVA:

A2 – technology development is exponential

Paradigm shifts are disruptive

Watch and Wait? Or, keep pace with California?

Laws and regulations to be resolved

Standards, guidelines codes of practice to be developed

Can policy precede technology?

Educate, educate, educate

Research, research, research – transition period and

operational safety are key

Areas of impact outside traditional DMV scope

Scale of decisions 10%-25% of GDP

Over-arching technology deployment ROAD MAP?

61

The economic health and

competitiveness of a

jurisdiction,

over the next decade,

may directly depend on the

decisions AAMVA members

make regarding autonomous

vehicles.

62

Let’s prepare for the new paradigm.

www.cavcoe.com

Paul Godsmarkpgodsmark@cavcoe.com

LinkedIn http://ca.linkedin.com/pub/paul-godsmark/3b/6aa/138