THE BRADLEY EFFECT AND THE DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION Answering questions and testing...
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THE BRADLEY EFFECT
AND THE
DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION
Answering questions and testing hypotheses
on data for the presidential elections
in the United States of America from 1980 to 2008
Wout Ultee
Radboud University Nijmegen
November 11, 2008
Course Contemporary sociological theories
Second bachelor year
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WHY DID OBAMA WIN FROM McCAIN?
HE GOT MORE MONEY FOR TV-ADS THAN McCAIN
BUT WHY DID OBAMA GET MORE MONEY THAN McCAIN?
THERE ARE MORE RESOURCES THAN MONEY
OTHER RESOURCES ARE SYMBOLIC
AND AN EFFECTIVE SYMBOLIC RESOURCE IS CHARISMA
OR FLUENCY, THE GIFT OF THE GAB, RHETORICS
SYMBOLIC RESOURCES, YES, OBAMA USED THEM
AND OBAMA OBTAINED MONEY IN THAT WAY
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BUT OBAMA NOT ONLY UTILIZED SYMBOLIC RESOURCES
OBAMA ALSO FACED SYMBOLIC HANDICAPS
OBAMA’S FOREMOST SYMBOLIC HANDICAP WAS THE COLOR OF HIS SKIN
HOW MUCH EFFECT DID THIS SYMBOLIC HANDICAP HAVE?
WE COMPLEMENT A MARXIST HYPOTHESIS WITH A RICH VERSION OF A WEBERIAN HYPOTHESIS
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THE QUESTION OF THIS PRESENTATION: THEY DID, REALLY ?
THIS CARTOON DRIVES HOME A SUPOSEDLY DISAPPEARING EFFECT OF OBAMA’S SYMBOLIC HANDICAP
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STATE RESULTS FOR 2004
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THE PREVIOUS MAP IS FOR 2004 AND VERY RED,
WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE A REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WON
BUT THE NEXT ONE FOR 2008 IS STILL VERY RED,
ALTHOUGH A DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE WON
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THE OUTCOME OF US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2008
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THE MAPS WE JUST SAW ARE QUITE MISLEADING AND FAVOUR THE REPUBLICANS TOO MUCH:
STATES DIFFER IN POPULATION DENSITY, WHEREAS DEMOCRACY MEANS ONE PERSON, ONE VOTE
AND THE STATES WITH THE LOWEST POPULATION DENSITY ARE THE MOST REPUBLICAN
THE NEXT MAP GIVES STATES A SIZE PROPORTIONATE TO THEIR NUMBER OF SEATS IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
AND THAT NUMBER OF SEATS IS PROPORTIONATE TO THE NUMBER OF INHABITANTS OF A STATE
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THIS MAP IS PAINTED IN BLUE,
AND EVEN MORE IF THE COLOR THE BLUE-WHITE STATES BECOME BLUE
ONCE MORE THE OUTCOME OF THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
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WE NOW MOVE FROM DATA AT THE LEVEL OF STATES
TO DATA AT THE LEVEL OF INDIVIDUALS
INDIVIDUAL DATA OFTEN ALLOW FOR STRONGER TESTS OF
HYPOTHESES
WE LATER WIL STUDT DATA ON COUNTIES, A LEVEL IN BETWEEN
STATES AND INDIVIDUALS
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YOU AS A YOUNG PERSON WILL LIKE THE NEXT GRAPH
THE GRAPH IS TAKEN FROM THE DUTCH NEWSPAPER
NRC-HANDELSBLAD:
ACCORDING TO EXIT POLLS YOUNG PERSONS WERE THE MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR
OBAMA
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BUT DO YOU AS A WHITE PERSON
LIKE THE NEXT GRAPH?
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WHITES IN 2008 WERE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A WHITE REPUBLICAN THAN FOR A
BLACK DEMOCRAT
YET, THE NEXT CLIPPING FROM THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE SAYS THAT
THE USA IN THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS JUMPED ITS LONG-STANDING
COLOR LINE
SO, DID THAT COUNTRY, REALLY?
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BACK TO THE DID-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION:
GIVEN THE NRC-HANDELSBLAD GRAPH,
COMPUTE THE BLACK/WHITE DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO
DOES THIS STATISTIC TELL ENOUGH ABOUT SURMOUNTING THE RACIAL BARRIER IN US
POLITICS?
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NO, THAT DEPENDS UPON THE VALUE OF THIS ODDS RATIO IN THE 2004
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
COMPUTE THIS ODDS RATIO GIVEN THE FOLLOWING FOUR GRAPHS FOR 2008,
2004, 1992 and 1980
THE DATA WERE TAKEN FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE NEW YORK TIMES AND
THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE SINCE RECENTLY CALLED THE GLOBAL
EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES
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The n’s for computing percentages for race are 74, 13, 9 and 2, and those for religion 52%, 27, 2 and 40
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THE BLACK/WHITE
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN
ODDS RATIO
FOR 2008
IS 30.4
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The n’s for computing percentages for race are 77, 11, 8 and 2, and those for religion 54, 27, 3 and 42
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THE BLACK/WHITE
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN
ODDS RATIO
FOR 2004
IS 11.3
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The n’s for computing percentages for race are 87, 8, 2 and 1, and those for religion 56%, 21, 4 and 22
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THE BLACK/WHITE
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN
ODDS RATIO
FOR 1992
IS 8.5
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The n’s for computing percentages for race are 89, 11, 2 and not avialable, and those for religion 51%, 27, 5 and not available
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THE BLACK/WHITE
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN
ODDS RATIO
FOR 1980
IS 12.0
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IF THE ODDS RATIO IS A GOOD MEASURE
FOR THE BLACK/WHITE POLITICAL RIFT
THAT RIFT INCREASED IN THE SHORT RUN
AND IN MEDIUM TERM ONE
AND IN THE LONG RUN
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OF COURSE
UPON CLOSER INSPECTION
THE 2008 INCREASE IS THERE
BECAUSE IN 2008 THE ODDS FOR BLACKS TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT
INCREASED MORE THAN THESE ODDS FOR WHITES
BUT DID THE ODDS FOR CERTAIN WHITES TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATE PERHAPS DECREASE?
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TOM-JAN MEEUS AND DIRK VLASBLOM OF NRC-HANDELSBLAD IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS
MENTIONED THE BRADLEY EFFECT
IN POLLS CERTAIN WHITES SAY THEY ARE GOING TO VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE
BUT WHEN CASTING THEIR VOTE
WHITES VOTE FOR A WHITE CANDIDATE
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THE LEAD OF OBAMA IN THE POLLS WAS A BIT LARGER THAN HIS LEAD IN THE ACTUAL
ELECTION OUTCOME
ACTUAL OUTCOME: 52 VERSUS 46 PERCENT POLLS: A DIFFERENCE OF 8 PERCENT
BUT THAT IS A WEAK TEST OF THE
BRADLEY EFFECT
AND THE ALL-IMPORTANT QUESTION REMAINS UNANSWERED:
ARE WHITE PERSONS LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A BLACK THAN FOR A WHITE CANDIDATE ?
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WHERE IN THE USA
MIGHT THE WHITE PERSONS LIVE
WHO ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE
FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE ?
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WHICH STATES OF THE USA
WERE THE LAST ONES TO DO AWAY WITH RACIAL LAWS?
TO WHICH STATES DID THE BILLY- HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS APPLY MOST STRONGLY?
WE ENCOUNTERED THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS IN THE FIRST BACHELOR YEAR DURING THE COURSE
SOCIOLOGY’S MAIN QUESTIONS
IT ALSO FEAUTURES IN THE CLIPPING WE NOW REREAD
PINPOINT THE PERTINENT PHRASE !
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THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS INVOKES
THE STRANGE FRUITS HANGING FROM SOUTHERN TREES
MOST AFRO-AMERICANS (BLACKS, NEGROES, COLOURED PEOPLE)
SINCE THE FOUNDING OF THE UNITED STATES WERE LEGALLY SLAVES
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AFTER THE CIVIL WAR AND THE LEGAL ABOLITION OF SLAVERY
THE DISADVANTAGED POSITION OF BLACKS WAS MAINTAINED BY VARIOUS OTHER NEW
RACIAL LAWS
AND BY THE DENIAL OF DUE PROCESS IN COURT BY MOB LYNCHING
THE LAST RACIAL LAWS WERE SCRAPPED IN THE 1960s,
THE PERIOD OF THE CIVIL RIGHTS MOVEMENT
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SO, THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS APPLIES MOST STRONGLY TO
THE SOUTHERN STATES OF THE USA
THE STATES WHICH LOST THE CIVIL WAR OF THE EARLY 1860s
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THE SOUTHERN STATES ARE THE ONES THAT LOST THE 1861-1865 CIVIL WAR IN THE UNITED STATES
THEY WERE CALLED CONFEDERATE STATES AND THEY ARE NAMED:
ALABAMA, ARKANSAS, FLORIDA, GEORGIA, MISSISSIPPI, NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA,
TEXAS, VIRGINIA
ALL THESE STATES HAD LAWS ALLOWING SLAVERY
THE STATES THAT ALLOWED SLAVERY BUT STAYED WITHIN THE UNION DURING THE CIVIL WAR WERE:
DELAWARE , KENTUCKY , MARYLAND , MISSOURI , WEST VIRGINIA
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FROM THE TIMES ATLAS OF WORLD HISTORY 1979
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DIGRESSION
TO WHAT EXTENT DID LYNCHING OCCUR IN THE UNITED STATES
AND WHERE DID IT OCCUR WITH THE HIGHEST RELATIVE FREQUENCY ?
Two slides from
Franklin E. Zimring
The contradictions of American Capital Punishment
Oxford, Oxford University Press
Pages 90 and 91
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NOW WE ARE GOING TO TEST
THE HYPOTHESIS THAT WHITE PERSONS IN THE SOUTH
ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE
FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE
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TO DO THIS, WE NOW TAKE
NEITHER STATES NOR INDIVIDUALS
AS THE UNITS OF ANALYSIS
BUT COUNTIES WITHIN STATES
AND WE STUDY THE CHANGES IN ELECTORAL OUTCOMES OF COUNTIES
BETWEEN 2004 AND 2008
THESE CHANGES FOR COUNTIES ARE SURPRISINGLY INFORMATIVE
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THE COUNTIES WHERE, IN OPPOSITION TO THE TREND TOWARDS A HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF DEMOCRATIC VOTES IN ALL STATES OF THE USA TAKEN
TOGETHER,
THE REPUBLICAN VOTE INCREASED
ARE TO BE FOUND IN THE SOUTH OF THE USA
THE FOLLOWING CLIPPINGS ARE FROM THE IHT PRINT EDITION
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THIS STATEMENT APPEARED NOT IN THE IHT OF NOVEMBER 6, BUT THE ISSUE OF NOVEMBER 7
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THE PREVIOUS MAPS ARE A BIT MISLEADING
THEY PORTRAY BOTTOM AND CEILING EFFECTS
IT IS NOT WISE TO COMPUTE DIFFERENCE SCORES:
THE REPUBLICAN VOTE INCREASED WITH XX PERCENT ETC
A STRONG INCREASE OF PERCENTAGES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
IF THE FIRST PERCENTAGE ALREADY IS HIGH
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WHAT SHOULD BE DONE INSTEAD :
REGRESS FOR COUNTIES
THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC VOTE ON
THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC VOTE
AND DO SO
SEPERATELY FOR COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH
AND COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE SOUTH
BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE PRESENT MEETING
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ANOTHER TEST OF THE HYPOTHESIS THAT WHITE
PERSONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A BLACK
CANDIDATE
REGRESSES FOR STATES
THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC VOTE
ON THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC VOTE
STIJN RUITER MADE THE NEXT GRAPH
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IN THE SCATTERGRAM MOST SOUTHERN STATES ARE BELOW THE REGRESSION LINE:
ALABAMA , ARKANSAS , LOUISIANA , MISSISSIPPI , SOUTH CAROLINA ,
TENNESSEE , WEST VIRGINIA
TOGETHER WITH ALASKA AND ARIZONA, THE STATE FROM WHICH McCAIN AND PALIN
ORIGINATE
WHEN DRAWING THE REGRESSION LINE
WASHINGTON DC WITH A MORE THAN 90 PERCENT DEMOCRATIC VOTE WAS LEFT OUT
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OKLOHOMA IS BELOW THE REGRESSION LINE BUT WAS NOT A STATE DURING THE CIVIL WAR
FLORIDA , TEXAS , NORTH CAROLINA , AND VIRGINIA ARE SOUTHERN STATES ON THE
REGRESSION LINE
FLORIDA HAS A LOT OF REFUGEES FROM CUBA AND THESE LATINOS VOTED DEMOCRATIC
PARTS OF VIRGINIA BECAME COMMUTER AREAS FOR PEOPLE WORKING IN WASHINGTON DC
TEXAS HAD A LOT OF DISTRICTS WITH MORE REPUBLICAN VOTES
BUT THAT TENDENCY IN TEXAS PROBABLY IS OFFSET BY THE LATINO DEMOCRATIC VOTE
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THAT SOUTHERN STATES
FALL BELOW THE REGRESSION LINE
IS QUITE SURPRISING
SOUTHERN STATES AFTER ALL
HAVE A HIGHER PERCENTAGE
OF BLACK INHABITANTS
AS THE NEXT MAP MAKES CLEAR
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FROM THE
WEBSITE OF THE U.S.A.
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
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THEREFORE
IF AT THE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL
BLACKS ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN
IN COUNTIES OR IN STATES WITH A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF BLACKS
ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL
THE 2008 VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRATS SHOULD BE STRONGER
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YET THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE
IN COUNTIES AND STATES WITH A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF BLACK INHABITANTS
IS LOWER THAN EXPECTED ACCORDING TO THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC VOTE
SO, OTHER THINGS DID NOT REMAIN EQUAL
SOUTHERN WHITES MOVED TO REPUBLICAN SIDE
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ANOTHER AND STRONGER TEST
THE CNN WEBSITE GIVES
EXIT POLLS DATA
FOR EVERY STATE
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FOR EVERY STATE WE NOW KNOW THE
PERCENT OF WHITES VOTING OBAMA
FOR EVERY STATE WE NOW KNOW THE
PERCENT OF BLACKS VOTING OBAMA
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WE ARE THUS ABLE TO TEST A PROPOSITION
LIKLING INDIVIDUAL DATA TO STATE DATA
A PROPOSITION WITH TWO UNITS OF ANALYSIS
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MAKE A GRAPH
PLOTTING THE PERCENT OF BLACK POPULATION
AGAINST THE PERCENT OF WHITES VOTING OBAMA
AND AGAINST THE PERCENT OF BLACKS VOTING OBAMA
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FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE US BUREAU OF THE
CENSUS
WE KNOW FOR EVERY STATE
THE PERCENT OF THE POPULATION THAT IS
BLACK
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OUR WHITES-DO-NOT-VOTE-FOR-A BLACK-CANDIDATE HYPOTHESIS
IS CORROBORATED:
WHITES ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR OBAMA
IF THEY LIVE IN A STATE WITH A HIGHER PERCENT OF BLACKS
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BUT DOES THE HYPOTHESIS APPLY TO SOUTHERN
STATES ONLY,
OR TO ALL KINDS OF STATES?
THE NEXT GRAPH CONTAINS SEPARATE LINES
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ONLY IN SOUTHERN STATES
DOES THE PERCENT OF BLACKS
INFLUENCE THE WHITE VOTE
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THE UPSHOT:
THE RACIAL DIVIDE
WAS NOT CROSSED
IN THE USA IN 2008
IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
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WHITES ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN THAN BLACKS
AND WHITES IN A STATE OR COUNTY WITH A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF BLACKS ARE MORE
LIKLEY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN THAN WHITES IN A STATE OR COUNTY WITH A LOWER PERCENTAGE
0F BLACK INHABITANTS
IN ADDITION ,
IF THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS BLACK, WHITES IN COUNTIES OR STATES WITH A HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF BLACK INHABITANTS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN THAN IF THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS WHITE
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THE ANSWER TO THIS PRESENTATION’S DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION ?
EVEN NOW, WHITES DO NOT, REALLY
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RELIGION SUPPOSEDLY PLAYS A BIG ROLE IN US ELECTIONS TOO
HOW BIG WAS THAT ROLE IN 2004 AND 2008?
FIRST FORMULATE AN HYPOTHESIS ABOUT THE NATURE OF THIS RELATIONSHIP
USE FOR THAT PURPOSE THE NEXT CUTTING FROM THE INTERNATIONAL
HERALD TRIBUNE
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COMPUTE ODDS RATIOS FOR
THE RELATION BETWEEN CHURCH ATTENDANCE AND
VOTING
IN 2004 AND 2008
ON THE BASIS OF THE FIGURES GIVEN IN THE IHT CLIPPING
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COMPUTE OTHER PERTINENT ODDS RATIOS FOR EFFECTS OF
WHITE EVANGELICANISM AND OF CHURCH ATTENDANCE IN 2000,
2004 AND 2008
GIVEN THE FOLLOWING THREE SETS OF FIGURES
FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE PEW FORUM FOR RELIGION AND
PUBLIC LIFE
TELL EXACTLY WHICH HYPOTHESES YOU ARE TESTING
THIS TIME
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COMPUTE THESE ODDS RATIOS FOR 1980, 1992, 2004
AND 2008 TOO
GIVEN THE FOUR EARLIER GRAPHS FROM THE WEBSITE
OF THE IHT AND THE NYT
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THE FIGURES ARE FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE PEW FORUM FOR RELIGION AND PUBLIC LIFE
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CHECK THIS CONCLUSION
GO TO THE IHT-NYT WEBSITE
AND
COMPUTE THE ODDS RATIO FOR EVERY PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION
FROM 1980 TO 2008
WRITE UP YOUR COMMENTS ON THE TIME SERIES !
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THE MAP WITH COUNTIES AND
THE INCREASE IN THE PERCENT OF REPUBLICAN VOTES
IS PART OF A SERIES OF 14 MAPS ON THE NYT-IHT WEBSITE
WE NOW LOOK AT THEM
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NOW WE PRESENT THE FOURTEEN IHT-NYT WEBSITE MAPS ON ELECTORAL SHIFTS
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THE IHT-NYT WEBSITE
NOW MOVES FROM
COUNTIES TO INDIVIDUALS
AS THE UNIT OF ANALYSIS
THE INDIVIDUAL DATA ARE FROM EXIT POLLS
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THE PREVIOUS SLIDE SHOWS A NICE CONTRAST WITH THE NRC DATA FOR THE PERCENT OF
WHITE PERSONS VOTING DEMOCRATIC IN 2008
SURE, THAT PERCENTAGE IS BELOW FIFTY IN 2008,
BUT IT INCREASED BETWEEN 2004 AND 2008
YET ALSO, THE PERCENT OF BLACK PERSONS VOTING DEMOCRATIC IN 2008 COMPARED WITH
2004 INCREASED EVEN MORE
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THE IHT-NYT WEBSITE THEN GOES ON TO PRESENT INDIVIDUAL DATA FOR STATES
SEPERATELY
SOMETIMES WE SEE THE LACK OF DATA BECAUSE OF TOO SMALL N’s
IN THESE STATES THE ELECTORAL OUTCOME WAS A CLIFF HANGER (TOSS-UP)
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THE EXIT POLL DATA
FOR 1984, 1988, 1996 AND 2000
FROM THE NYT-IHT WEBSITE
NECESSARY TO
COMPUTE UNINTERRUPTED TIME SERIES
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THE END
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AFTER
WHO VOTES FOR WHOM ?
THE QUESTION IS :
WHO GLOWS FOR WHOM ?
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