THE AUTOMOTIVE REVOLUTION · AV & CONNECTED CARS MATURITY CURVE The race to develop the first fully...
Transcript of THE AUTOMOTIVE REVOLUTION · AV & CONNECTED CARS MATURITY CURVE The race to develop the first fully...
WELCOME TO THE AUTONOMOUS REVOLUTION
HOW AUTONOMOUS T E C H N O L O G Y I S T R A N S F O R M I N G THE AUTOMOT IVE I N D U S T R Y F R O M T H E I N S I D E O U T
TABLE OF CONTENTS3 SUMMARY
4 AV & CONNECTED CARS MATURITY CURVE
5 AUTONOMOUS TECHNOLOGY IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES
7 AUTONOMOUS PRIORITIES OVER THE NEXT 18 MONTHS
9 INVESTMENTS
10 WHO SHOULD REGULATE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES & CONNECTED CARS?
11 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE REVENUE STREAM
12 THE IMPACT ON THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
13 TOP AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE COMPETITORS
14 SURVEY RESPONDENT PROFILE
15 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
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SUMMARYManufacturers, suppliers, and key stakeholders around the world are racing to shape the future of transportation and autonomous driving. The industry is undergoing monumental change, as automakers introduce cars with increasingly sophisticated technology. This report classifies the pressing issues of OEMs, disrupters, tier one manufacturers, autonomous technology companies, and solution providers. Understanding the technical and implementation challenges of manufacturers, suppliers and startups is critical for navigating and thriving in this changing environment. Uncover the industry’s leading short-term priorities, investment levels, regulation outlooks, anticipated revenue streams, top competitors, and more.
The Autonomous Vehicles Summit surveyed 325+ global automotive leaders to identify where car manufacturers are on their journey towards autonomous, how they’re capitalizing on this opportunity for reinvention and the key challenges they’re facing as a result. This report aims to not only present a snapshot of the current state of autonomous, but also enable the development of a new set of industry benchmarks, best practices and innovative solutions.
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AV & CONNECTED CARS MATURITY CURVEThe race to develop the first fully self-driving car is in full swing, with automakers, suppliers, and software developers testing several approaches at breakneck speed. In the short term, OEMs are about to begin rolling out vehicles equipped with Level 3 technology, a crucial step on the journey toward deploying Level 4 and 5 systems. Now more than ever, manufacturers and other stakeholders are working at a fevered clip to figure out how to attain first-mover advantage and derive maximum profit from the burgeoning “mobility” industry.
When OEMs and Disrupters were asked to describe where their company falls on the AV and connected cars maturity curve, 32% (Chart 1) stated that they
This is not an area of focus for my company
We are considering investing in this area
We’re are just now starting to invest in this area but have no
concrete plans for next steps
We’ve invested in this area and are in the process of developing & testing new products that fall
into this category
We’ve already released products that fall into this category
We’ve invested in the area in the past but decided that it will not play a significant role in our
business going forward
This represents our core product
CHART 1: OEMS AND DISRUPTERS: AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE AND CONNECTED CARS MATURITY CURVE
CHART 2: TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES & SOLUTION PROVIDERS: AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE AND CONNECTED CARS MATURITY CURVE
This is not an area of focus for my company
We are considering investing in this area
We’re are just now starting to invest in this area but have no
concrete plans for next steps
We’ve invested in this area and are in the process of developing & testing new products that fall into
this category
We’ve already released products that fall into this category
We’ve invested in the area in the past but decided that it will not play a significant role in our
business going forward
14%
17%22%
6%
32%
21%
5%
15% 13%
13%
13%
16%
13%
22%
22%
11%
24%
5%
5%
15%
11%
20%
5%
32%
22%
7%
have invested in both areas and are in the process of developing and testing new products. 22% (Chart 1)are currently considering investing in autonomous vehicles and 20% are considering investing in connected cars.
When technology companies and solution providers were asked to share where their company fell on the maturity curve, 22% (Chart 2) indicated having invested in both areas and are in the process of developing and testing new products. Regarding connected cars, 24% (Chart 2) of technology companies and solution providers shared that they’ve already released products that fall under this category.
Connected CarsAutonomous Vehicles
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AUTONOMOUS TECHNOLOGY IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES When respondents were asked to share the largest company-wide challenges preventing the implementation of autonomous technology, the top voted inhibitor was safety (Chart 3). The safety inhibitor represents a number of current issues: the insufficiency of safety and performance data, the difficulty of storing and analyzing data, the tradeoffs between design and functionality, and the cost of sensors and LIDAR technology. The public’s preoccupation with safety has been an influential factor in driving focus to this inhibitor. In addition, automakers and suppliers are still determining what type of equipment the next generation of autonomous vehicles will use. All of these safety issues will arise until the most effective way to build an autonomous car- from a safety, cost and design standpoint- is determined.
Other significant barriers felt on a company-wide level include cybersecurity and privacy, the lack of regulatory frameworks, and keeping development costs down. Even though regulation clarity from the federal government would allow manufacturers and other stakeholders to develop a growth strategy and scale faster, they are pushing ahead. The years 2017 and 2018 have seen several automakers roll out proprietary safety systems that serve as the basic building blocks for semi- and fully autonomous driving.
Concerns about AV technology (I.e. glitches,
malfunctions)
Consumer readiness to adopt
Consumer wiliness to pay for new technology
Creating new business models for AV and
connected cars
Cybersecurity/privacy
Ensuring the efficiency of AVs
Keeping development costs down
Keeping up with consumer demands
Lack of IT infrastructure
Lack of regulatory framework
Maintaining compliance to existing regulations
Other
Roads & infrastructure are not equipped for new
technology
Safety
V2X communication
Working with external technology vendors and
providers
CHART 3: TOP INHIBITORS TO ORGANIZATIONS
21%
25%
24%16%
12%
24%22%
18%
34%40%
31%
8%5%
10%
29%42%
26%
13%15%
7%
8%4%
11%
32%31%30%
5%11%
9%
11%4%
9%
24%16%
24%
39%
35%
5%2%
13%
16%18%
16%
45%
13%20%
32%20%
Tier One Manufacturers
Technology Companies & Solution Providers
OEMs & Disrupters
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On an individual level, respondents revealed several different trends (Chart 4) from the company-wide inhibitors. Safety is still the top challenge for respondents who work for tier one manufacturers, technology companies or solution providers. But the top challenge among OEMs and disrupters revealed to be ‘working with external technology vendors and providers’. This trend relates back to where OEMs and disrupters currently fall on the autonomous vehicle maturity curve. They are just starting to invest but have no concrete plans for next steps. As automakers
become more fluent in developing semi-autonomous technology, they must also recognize the need to take the next step: mapping the roads. Interestingly, one of the top three challenges faced by individuals working for technology companies and solution providers revealed that roads and infrastructure are not equipped for new technology. Developing effective partnerships to map the streets and highways is necessary to put autonomous cars on the road. Some companies are more proactive than others but soon everyone will need to choose the mapping method or risk falling behind.
CHART 4: TOP INHIBITORS TO INDIVIDUALS
Concerns about AV technology (I.e. glitches, malfunctions)
Consumer readiness to adopt
Consumer wiliness to pay for new technology
Convincing leadership teams to invest in new technology
Creating new business models for AV and connected cars
Cybersecurity/privacy
Ensuring the efficiency of AVs
Keeping development costs down
Keeping up with consumer demands
Lack of IT infrastructure
Lack of regulatory framework
Maintaining compliance to existing regulations
Other
Roads & infrastructure are not equipped for new technology
Safety
V2X communication
Working with external technology vendors and providers
13%
24%
21%
11%
18%
16%
3%
34%
5%
13%
21%
5%
8%
26%
26%
5%
37% 18%
12%
34%
28%
8%
10%
32%
19%
11%
4%
5%
25%
19%
20%
13%
21%
19%
19%
19%
21%
25%
26%
4%
28%
7%
9%
25%
9%
14%
44%
4%
14%
24%OEMs & Disrupters
Tier One Manufacturers
Technology Companies & Solution Providers
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AUTONOMOUS PRIORITIES OVER THE NEXT 18 MONTHS The top-voted priorities among all respondents suggest that AV software, AV hardware, and cybersecurity are of the upmost importance on an industry-wide level (Chart 5). Among the majority of OEMs and disrupters, 38% are prioritizing AV Software. Nearly half of tier one manufacturers are all prioritizing AV hardware. More than a third of technology companies and solution providers are placing the upmost importance on cybersecurity for the next 18 months.
There is a staggering amount of data that autonomous vehicles must process and make decisions from during a drive, which emphasizes the current importance of artificial intelligence, software validation, and software verification. While the deployment of semi-autonomous vehicles to the consumer market will arrive in the near future, the top-voted priorities emphasize there is still a variety of development work to be done.
The automotive sector is still working to develop industry standards and best practices for automotive cybersecurity. As vehicles are currently becoming more connected and there are more driver automated support systems in vehicles as we prepare for full autonomy, these systems create more safety vulnerabilities as systems are hackable. As systems become more intricate and produce larger amounts of data, they become less secure and more susceptible to hacking. Over the next 18 months, the use of artificial intelligence in cybersecurity will help to evaluate the current safety and privacy concerns regarding the large amounts of data resulting from connectivity.
These cybersecurity concerns have a direct relation to one of the top priorities among technology companies and solution providers. 26% revealed that a top AV priority is data management, protection and governance. As connectivity creates copious amounts of data, technology companies and solution providers are looking for ways to protect and manage this data. Currently, these companies are challenged to create solutions for a variety of inhibitors: privacy laws (especially in the UK), costs, lack of bandwidth, lack of 5G networks, data storage, and the ownership of
data. 5G networks may not arrive for several years, but automakers still need to develop the V2X technology that will allow cars to talk to each other and to the local infrastructure. One question stakeholders are considering is the role wireless carriers will play in lowering the cost of collecting and transmitting the data needed for V2V and V2I communication. Over the next 18 months, technology companies and solution providers are looking to create a business model that will allow for the collection and high-speed transmission of copious V2V and V2I data.
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CHART 5: AUTONOMOUS PRIORITIES Tier One
ManufacturersOEMs & Disrupters
Technology Companies & Solution Providers
Visioning Sensors
20% 34% 24%
V2X
24% 6% 14%
Telematics
20% 21% 14%
Tech Talent
24% 15% 22%
Other
18% 4% 8%
Mapping
12% 9% 16%
Lightweight materials
7% 26% 8%
Legal/Regulatory
16% 15% 22%
Infotainment
21% 13% 14%
Fleet management
14% 9% 19%
Data Monetization
16% 4% 14%
Data Management, Protection & Governance
26% 13% 22%
Cybersecurity
32% 28% 30%
AV Software
27% 32% 38%
AV Hardware
21% 45% 30%
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INVESTMENTSRespondents were asked to share approximately how much their company is looking to invest in the top priorities mentioned above. The majority of OEMs, disrupters, and tier one manufacturers indicated that they are looking to invest at least $10 million over the next 18 months (Chart 6). Automakers are also starting to pay more attention to startups. Nissan, Mitsubishi and Renault have created a fund, Alliance Ventures, which will invest up to $1 billion over the next five years in mobility startups pursuing advances in electrification, autonomy, connectivity and artificial intelligence. Several other automakers, such as BMW and Jaguar Land Rover, have venture capital arms to fund startups working on technology that could facilitate the development of autonomous vehicles.
The majority of technology companies and solution providers, 40%, stated that they plan on investing less than $500,000 over the next year and a half. This trend
could be influenced by the current lack of regulatory framework. While manufacturers and key stakeholders see last fall’s passage of the SELF Drive Act, “Safely Ensuring Lives Future Deployment and Research in Vehicle Evolution,” by the U.S. House of Representatives as an encouraging sign, it has yet to be determined how and where manufacturers and suppliers will test their self-driving technology. As the Senate deliberates the bill, only a patchwork of state and municipal laws determine where and how self-driving technology can be tested. If and when the SELF Drive Act is passed, key deadlines for decision-making will allow for manufacturers, startups, and suppliers to put up to 100,000 autonomous vehicles on the road for testing by 2021. Overall, the creation of regulatory framework and industry deadlines will encourage the automotive industry to increase their short-term investments.
OEMs & Disrupters
$1-$5M $10M+ $500K-1M $5-10M Under $500k
Tier One Manufacturers
Technology Companies & Solution Providers
CHART 6: INVESTMENTS OVER THE NEXT 18 MONTHS
22%
17%
13%
38%
33%
21%
11%
19%
16%
5%
15%
10%
24%
17%
40%
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WHO SHOULD REGULATE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES & CONNECTED CARS?
When respondents were asked to share their candid opinions on who they think should create the regulations that govern autonomous vehicles and connected cars, the overwhelming majority agreed that the federal government should implement nation-wide rules and regulations (Chart 7). Interestingly, nearly 10% of OEMs and disrupters, tier one manufacturers, technology companies and solution providers all shared interest in having the automotive industry set its own rules and regulations. This statistic could be influenced by the current wait for answers on regulatory issues. Fundamentally speaking, the entire automotive industry
wants to position themselves to succeed and the current roadblocks are obstructing the industry’s ability to do so.
Even though the Self-Drive Act remains stalled in the Senate, automakers are moving forward and continuing to make progress despite this. While waiting for legislation to pass, the industry is determining how to protect themselves legally while testing semi-autonomous and fully autonomous technology, as well as the next key steps in developing self-driving technology.
OEMs & Disrupters Tier One Manufacturers Technology Companies & Solution Providers
CHART 7: WHO SHOULD REGULATE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES & CONNECTED CARS?
The federal government - the DOT should
implement nation-wide rules & regulations
The automotive industry should be allowed to set its
own rules & regulations
No new rules & regulation should be
created at any level
Local governments- rules & regulations should
be developed and enacted at the state and/or
municipal level
83%
75%
81%
6%
11%
11%
3%
2%
0%
8%
13%
8%
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AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE REVENUE STREAMOver the next 5 to 10 years, respondents were asked to share what percentage of their company’s revenue will be generated by autonomous vehicles. The majority of OEMs, disrupters, technology companies, and solution providers all anticipate autonomous vehicle revenue to make up 1-10% of their organizations’ total revenue (Chart 8). This percentage indicates that although autonomous vehicles are of high priority, they might not be widely accepted by consumers in the next decade.
During the keynote address at the Autonomous Vehicles Silicon Valley Summit in February 2018, Cadillac President Johan de Nysschen spoke on the next step for car companies: how dealers will demonstrate and sell autonomous technology to the public. Nysschen
mentioned that Cadillac is calling upon its dealers to show sales associates the best way to showcase Super Cruise technology. While this next step requires a massive commitment and expense, it illustrates the importance for leading companies to address this issue. Additionally, automakers are preparing for a massive shift in the retail model. Autonomous technology is paving the way for a transition from a product-based industry to a service-based industry, where consumers can subscribe to cars rather than owning or leasing outright, and only paying for what they use. The impact of this massive shift to the mobility-as-a-service model on revenue percentages is uncertain for the moment as it will not likely be widespread in the next 5 to 10 years.
OEMs & Disrupters Technology Companies & Solution Providers
CHART 8: AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES: ANTICIPATED PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL COMPANY REVENUE OVER NEXT 5-10 YEARS
0%
100%
1-10%
11-20%
21-50%
51-99%
8%
6%
3%
1%
34%
26%
29%
30%
24%
16%
3%
19%
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THE IMPACT ON THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY When respondents were asked to share how autonomous vehicles will ultimately impact the automotive industry the majority stated that it will change the industry for the better (Chart 9). 68% of technology companies and solution providers, 63% of tier one manufacturers, and 50% of OEMs and disrupters all agreed it will change the industry for the better.
A significant percentage of respondents also voted that autonomous vehicles will neither have a good or bad impact on the industry; instead it will objectively be a catalyst for change. 37% of OEMS and disrupters, 34% of tier one manufacturers, and 29% of technology companies and solution providers all concurred with this outlook.
CHART 9: INDUSTRY IMPACT
OEMs & Disrupters Tier One Manufacturers Technology Companies & Solution Providers
50%
63%
68%
13%
4%
3%
37%
34%
29%
Change the automotive industry for the better
Negatively impact the automotive industry
Neither- though it will certainly be a catalyst for change, I don’t foresee it as being necessarily good or bad for the industry
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TOP AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE COMPETITORS Among tier one manufacturers, half view other tier one manufacturers as their largest competition (Chart 10). Amongst the majority of technology companies and solution providers, 41%, technology startups are regarded as the leading competitor (Chart 11).
CHART 10: TOP COMPETITORS FOR TIER ONE MANUFACTURERS
CHART 11: TOP COMPETITORS FOR TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES & SOLUTION PROVIDERS
Other Tier One Manufactures (i.e. Tesla)
Established Technology Companies (i.e. Apple Computers)
Tech Startups
OEMs
Tech Startups
Established Technology Companies (i.e. Apple Computers)
Tier One Manufactures (i.e. Tesla)
OEMs
41%51%18%
18% 37%
12%
9%14%
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SURVEY RESPONDENT PROFILE CHART 12: OVERALL RESPONDENT BREAKDOWN
CHART 14: TECHNOLOGY COMPANY BREAKDOWN
CHART 15: OVERALL RESPONDENT SPECIALTIES
CHART 13: OEM & DISRUPTER BREAKDOWN
OEM/Disruptor
Tier One Manufacturer
Technology Company (i.e. Google, Apple, etc)/Solution Provider
Startup
Established Tech Company (i.e. Apple, Google, Dell)
OEM
Disruptor
OEMs & Disrupters
Tier One Manufacturers
Technology Companies & Solution Providers
Cyber Security
Lighting
Powertrain/Voltage
Seating
5%
8%
17%
9%
11%
14%
52%
58%
27%
18%
48%
42%55%
12%
19%
3%
11%
16%
32%
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August 20 - 22, 2018Detroit, MI
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MEET THE SPEAKERS Join the industry’s key influencers for informal conversation during one of our coffee breaks.
TEST DRIVE TECH Join the industry’s key influencers for informal conversation during one of our coffee breaks.
‘BOOZE’ CONTROL Switch on the cruise control and relax and unwind with cocktails, food, and music at our evening reception. Establish new industry connections and discuss the latest autonomous technology with some of the industry’s brightest minds
LATEST ISSUES From artificial intelligence to mapping, learn about the critical issues facing manufacturers and stakeholders and discover how they are approaching new challenges.
TECH-CELERATOR Scope out new competitors and potential collaborators entering the race towards autonomy at our start up pitch competition
WORKSHOP DAY Workshop autonomy’s most pressing technical challenges before the conference begins with four 90-minute workshops on artificial intelligence, machine learning, user experience, and simulation.