The Ascent of the Developing World

STEVEN RADELET

the

GREAT SURGE

Global Poverty is Falling Fast

1820 1834 1848 1862 1876 1890 1904 1918 1932 1946 1960 1974 1988 20020

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Bourguignon and Morrisson Data Ravallion and Chen Data

Num

ber o

f Peo

ple

(Mill

ions

)Number of people living in absolute poverty

($1/day), 1820-2011

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Num

ber o

f Poo

r Peo

ple

(mill

ions

)

Perc

enta

ge o

f Pop

ulati

on

$1.90/day Poverty (2011 PPP

Percentage (right axis)

Number of People (left axis)

Shifting FortunesTotal Number of People in each Consumption Bracket

Less than $1.25/day $1.25—$2/day $2—$5/day More than $5/day0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1,966

1,000 1,037

662

1,0111,148

2,023

1,771

1993 2011

Num

ber o

f Peo

ple

(mill

ions

)

Incomes are GrowingGDP per Capita, Developing Countries (1960=100, unweighted

average)

19601962

19641966

19681970

19721974

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20120

50

100

150

200

250

300

GD

P pe

r Cap

ita

(inde

xed

valu

e, 1

960

= 10

0)

Growth Includes Many More Countries

Exceeding 2% Exceeding 4% Negative (less than 0%)0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

21

10

51

71

30

10

1977 - 1994 1995 - 2013

More Children Are LivingPercentage of Children Dying Before Age 5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

22%

18%

13%

10%

8%

5%

People are Living LongerLife Expectancy in Developing Countries

At Birth Contingent on Reaching Age Five30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

50

6159

6665

69

1960 - 1965 1980 - 1985 2005 - 2010

Year

s

More People are EducatedAverage years of Schooling Completed Among Adults

1970 1990 20100

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

3.4

5.2

7.1

4.0

5.8

7.6

2.7

4.7

6.5

All Adults Males Females

Year

s

Democracy is SpreadingTotal Number of Democracies, Developing Countries

19721974

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

There are Far Fewer WarsNumber of Major Civil Wars in Developing Countries

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

20130

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

And Far Fewer Battle DeathsTotal Number of Battle Deaths, All Conflicts

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

20130

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Total Battle Deaths (PRIO) Total Battle Deaths (UCDP)

But Many Are Still Left Behind…

Average Income Levels, 3 Groups of Developing Countries

19601962

19641966

19681970

19721974

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20120

100

200

300

400

500

600

25 Fastest - Growing Countries Average of 109 Developing Countries

25 Slowest - Growing Countries

Ave

rage

per

Cap

ita

Inco

me

(196

0=10

0)

The Beginning of the End of Extreme Poverty? Three Projections

Percentage of people with incomes less than $1.25/day

Incomes Continue To ClimbAverage Income in Developing Countries, Population

Weighted, Excluding China (Constant Prices, 1994=100)

World Population: High, Medium, and Low

Projections