The Art of Crystal Ball Gazing: Determine Product Strategy through Intelligent Data Analysis
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Future The Art of Crystal-Ball Gazing Product Strategy through Intelligent Data Analysis C.K. Kumar
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Enjoyed giving this presentation at Product Camp Austin: An introduction to Product Strategy Fundamentals, The Ri-Fi Model and an applying it to the BlockBuster Business Case
Transcript of The Art of Crystal Ball Gazing: Determine Product Strategy through Intelligent Data Analysis
FutureThe Art of Crystal-Ball Gazing
Product Strategy through Intelligent Data Analysis
C.K. Kumar
What to expect in this Presentation
Number Crunching Quant Methods Data Mining Data Analysis S/W
Product Strategy Decision-Making Practical Models Business Cases
IS IS NOT
Strategy - A Simple Definition
Main Entry: strat·e·gy Pronunciation: \-jē\Function: noun Inflected Form(s): plural strat·e·giesEtymology: Greek stratēgia generalship, from stratēgosDate: 18101 a (1) : the science and art of employing the political, economic, psychological, and military forces of a nation or group of nations to afford the maximum support to adopted policies in peace or war (2) : the science and art of military command exercised to meet the enemy in combat under advantageous conditions b : a variety of or instance of the use of strategy
2 a : a careful plan or method : a clever stratagem b : the art of devising or employing plans or stratagems toward a goal
3 : an adaptation or complex of adaptations (as of behavior, metabolism, or structure) that serves or appears to serve an important function in achieving evolutionary success <foraging strategies of insects>
Source: Webster
Product Strategy – A Simple Framework
Existing Products
Ansoff’s Matrix
New Products
Exi
stin
g M
ark
ets
New
Ma
rke
tsMarket
Development
Product Developmen
t
Market Penetration
Diversification
Sparse Market Data
Rich Market Data
Product Strategy – A Simple Example
Existing Products
Ansoff’s Matrix
New Products
Exi
stin
g M
ark
ets
New
Ma
rke
ts
Market DevelopmentProduct Development
Market Penetration Diversification
The Exponential Growth of Computing
It took 90 years to achieve the first MIPS per 1000 dollars; now we add 1.2 MIPS per 1000 dollars every hour.
Calc
ula
tions
per
Seco
nd p
er
$100
0
Logarithmic Plot
Year
The Law of Accelerating Returns
Source: Ray Kurzweil
COSTS
1
10
100
Telephone Radio Television
PC
MobilePhone
Ye
ars
Source: The Millennium Notebook, Newsweek
Doubling time: x years
Source: The Millennium Notebook, Newsweek
The Web
Logarithmic Plot
The Law of Accelerating Returns
Source: Ray Kurzweil
Reduced Time to Consumer Adoption
Adoption Time
The Data Conundrum
o Data Sourceso Rate of Refresho Market Cycleso Rearview Mirror
Data is NOT Insight
o Actionableo Rapid Decisionso Multiple Optionso “Trackability”
What You Want What You Get
Crystal Ball Gazing
Right Actions
Right
Data
Right Qs
Crystal Ball Gazing
Right Qs Right Data Right ActionsRight
Product ?
Right People ?Right Market ?
Right
Fit ?
The Ri-Fi Model
It’s Showtime: The Story
Source: Blockbuster Inc. Investor Relations Presentation, Jan 3, 2010
Wikipedia
1985Opened
First Store
1986Opened
First Franchise
1987BB goes public
Acquires Movies-to-
Go
1994Viacom
purchases BB for $8.4B
1998Netflix is
Established
2002Acquires Movie
Trading Company
2005Late Fees Eliminated
2004BB Online is Introduced
Separates from Viacom
1990Acquires UK’s Ritz
Video
2006Introduces
BB Total Access
2008BB proposes
buyout of Circuit City
2007New CEO
De-Emphasizes 2009
Installs BB Express Kiosks
2010BB issues
Bankruptcy warning. De-
listed from NYSE
?
Source: Blockbuster Inc. Investor Relations Presentation, Jan 3, 2010
2010What
questions should one
ask?
It’s Showtime: The Story
Product
People Market
Right Fit
2009:$24B 2014E:$26B
Domestic Movie / Video Market
2010What
questions should one
ask?
It’s Showtime: The StoryProduct
People Market
Right Fit
Media Rental Customer Journey
Source: Peer Insights, 2008
It’s Showtime: The StoryProduc
t
People
Market
Right Fit
1
Learning
2
Planning Browsin
g
3Choosin
g
4 5Receivin
g
6
Viewing
7Returnin
g
8
Paying
9Exceptions(late fees)
2009What questions should one
ask?
Key Takeaways
o Marketo Technologyo Competition
o Producto Portfolio Managemento Licensing/Distribution
o Peopleo Serviceo Training
What could be the winning product strategy in 2010?
Source: Ergosign.de
Product
People Market
Right Fit
You have the ability/resources to introduce 2 products (A and B) in a market of your choosing. Each product would have a competitor X and Y whose 5 year Sales Profile is as shown. The 5 Year Market Share Shift trends are as shown. What Q’s would you ask to determine which product would you want to introduce against which competitor and in which market?
o Product A ?
o Product B ?
Hands-On Business CaseWhat is your product strategy?
Why?
Product
People Market
Right Fit
Thank You
