Urban Water Management in the GCCDefining Sustainability

Prof. Waleed K Al-ZubariWater Resources Management Program

waleed@agu.edu.bh

The Arab Regional Center @ AGU

Water Arabia 2011 Conference & Exhibition, 1-2 February, 2011, Bahrain

Overview Introduction GCC Water Resources & Use Municipal/Drinking Water Management Municipal Wastewater Management Urban Water Management in the GCC “Sustainable” Urban Water Management in the

GCC Case Study: Urban Water Management in

Kuwait City Conclusion & Recommendations

Arid to extremely arid climatic conditions Small and irregular rainfall in space & time (<100 mm/yr) High evaporation rates ( >3000 mm/yr)

Generally devoid of surface water resources, depends mainly on groundwater, desalination, and reuse of TSE

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

0

50

100

150

200

250

Rain

fall,

mm

Introduction

Cont., Introduction

Accelerated development growth since the mid 1970s Increase in the economic base, rapid improvement in the

standard of living, and high rates of human development High population growth rates of national and expatriates

(>3%) & intense urbanization Substantial and continuous increase in water demands

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

0

10

20

30

40

Popu

latio

n, m

illion

GCC Water Demands, Bcm1970-2005

GCC Population, Millions1950-2005

1970 1980 1990 2000Year

0

10

20

30

40

Billi

on C

ubic

Met

er

Scarcity of natural water resources is aggravated by high population growth, expected to increase in the future

Water is becoming an increasingly scarce commodity and its availability is decreasing with time

Per Capita Available Water Share in GCC (traditional and non-traditional

water resources) 1950-2005

Cont., Introduction

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

Per

Cap

ita m

3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Pop

ulat

ion,

mill

ionWater Poverty

Absolute Water Poverty

DesalinationDesalination

Cont., Population, Development & Water…

(Arab Water Council, 2006)

Per Capita Freshwater Availability in the GCC Compared to the Global Level

Groundwater89%

Treated Wastewater

1.9%

Desalinated Water9.2%

IndustrialIndustrialMunicipalMunicipal

AgriculturalAgricultural 85.5%

11.8% 2.8%

Agricultural Policies Agricultural Policies & Food Demand& Food Demand

Population & Population & UrbanizationUrbanizationGrowing!

MainPressures

Cont., GCC Water Resources…

Water Resources & Uses in the GCC, 2005

Municipal/Drinking Water Supply Represents about 12% of total GCC water uses,

escalating Source: Desalinated (56% of drinking water

supply) and Groundwater Almost 100% water supply coverage However, an alarming increase in urban water

demands, due to Rapid population growth & urbanization High level of unaccounted-for-water (UFW);

>30% Rise in per capita consumption

1980 1990 2000Year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Billion

cub

ic m

eter

s

Water 285%

Water 181%

Population 165%

Population 133%

Development of Domestic Water Demands in GCC1980-2000

Cont., Municipal Water Supply

consumption patterns in domestic

sector are high and change with time

(reaches 750 L/d/capita)

Trends in Per Capita Municipal Water Consumption in GCC, 1980-2000

0100

200

300

400500

600700

800

Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar SaudiArabia

UAE

L/C

apita

/Day

198019902000

Cont., Municipal Water Supply

Cont., Municipal Water Supply

Main reasons for the escalating and exaggeration of urban water demands Focus on the “Supply-Side” of water

management Absence of proper “Demand Management” Economic tools; non-existent of price-

signaling mechanism: metering & pricing, subsidies

Technological tools: water-saving devices Legislative tools: building codes and bylaws

Inadequate public awareness of the Water scarcity and situation in the region

Development of Desalination Capacity in the GCC Countries, 1980-2005

(and projected by 2016)

Cont., Municipal Water Supply

Response: Supply Management & Augmentation

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

0

1

2

3

4

Billi

on c

ubic

met

ers

Con

trac

ted

Des

alC

apac

ity =

19

Bcm

(GW

I, 20

10)

by 2016

Estim

ated

9.5

Bcm

2010

(WCMC, 2001)

Distribution of Desalination Plants in the GCC(currently 50% of world total desalination capacity)

Extensive installation of desalination plants, BUT Financial and economic impacts heavy burden on national budget, cost of desalination

plants installed up to 2001 is US$ 21 billion Desalination cost, operating life, ….

Environmental impacts Marine pollution (thermal, brine, residual treatment

chemicals, ..), Air pollution by emitted oxides (mostly using oil)

Imported Technology: GCC still do not own the technology and limited added value to GCC economies

Energy-intensive (fast depletion of oil reserves) (Cogeneration Power Desalination Plants; MSF mainly)

Cont., Municipal Water Supply

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

year

mill

ions

of T

OE

Energy consumption in the GCC in million TOE (2000-2009, and projected 2010-2020)

>50% Cogeneration Power Desalination Plants (CDPD)

Source: Economist Intelligence unit, 2010

Darwish, et al. (2010) In Kuwait, if the fuel oil production is kept at 2.5

Mbbl/d (912.5 Mbbl/y), all oil production (the country main income) will be consumed locally by the year 2035!

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

year

% o

f 2.5

Mbb

l/d

Total Oil Consumption (all sectors)

CPDP Oil Consumption

Increasingly significant water sources driven by escalating urban water consumption

Became available in the early 1980s (wastewater treatment facilities and networks completion in large cities)

Rate of wastewater collection is lagging far behind water supply service (20-40%), with relatively large areas covered by on-site sanitation facilities

Designed treatment capacity is less than produced wastewaters: Pollution of Shallow aquifers Shallow water table rise in residential

areas (e.g., Riyadh, Kuwait, Doha) Pollution of coastal and marine

environments (frequent fish kill)

Fish Kill

Wastewater Management

e.g., Wastewater Problem in Bahrain (and many GCC)Tubli Wastewater Treatment Plant

Carryover discharge

Coastal and Marine Pollution

Wastewater Wastewater Inflow Inflow

Cont., Wastewater Management

Almost all countries operating modern treatment facilities with tertiary and advanced treatment

TSE represents about 46% of the total domestic water volumes

Reused TSE <16.5% of available domestic water supply, about 47% of treated wastewater

Reuse in irrigating urban gardens, parks, fodder crops, and highway landscaping

Cont., GCC Water Resources…

0

1

2

3

4

5

billi

on c

ubic

met

ers

trea

ted

reus

ed

prod

uced

Dom

estic

su

pply

Treatment and Reuse of wastewater in GCC (2005)

Urban Water Management in GCC Addressing urban water problems from the

supply side Very few efforts in demand management Fragmented, uncoordinated sectoral

development and planning (i.e., between Water Supply, Sanitation, Reuse, …)

The current situation of water supply and sanitation is unsustainable, and requires strong management interventions and measures

An integrated approach in the planning & management of urban water is urgently needed

Downward Spiral Situation

Increasing population

Increasing total consumption & per capita

Increasing leakage rates (UfW)

Increasing subsidies, no price-signaling mechanism

Supply augmentation policies (desalination)

Increasing costs (production & transmission)

Increasing wastewater carryover volumes

Urban Water Management System in GCC

Inadequate awareness (public assumption of

plentiful of water)

NO EXISTENCE OF MAJOR

COUNTER-FORCES!

To supply water to users sectors in Adequate Quantity Required Quality

With minimum cost Financially and Economically Socially and Environmentally

With maximum societal benefits Maximizing added value of use Contribute to overall national

development (e.g., country Vision) On long-term basis (future

generations, not only for current!)

GCC Sustainable Urban Water Management

WR Management Objective Function

Constraints and

conditions

Dynamic, (things change

over time and are non-linear!)

Case StudyKuwait Municipal Sector

Sustainable Management Model (Eidan and Zubari, 2010)

Kuwait Municipal Sector Management Model

Problem Statement: dominance of sectoral urban water planning leading to inefficient management levels: Escalating water demands, non-proportional to

population growth Increasing financial and economic costs High frequency of water supply shortages High negative environmental impacts (emissions,

untreated/partially treated wastewater discharge into the coastal and marine environment, shallow water table rise, etc..)

Objective: develop an integrated planning and dynamic model to assess the sustainability of urban water management and evaluate the effectiveness of a number of proposed management alternatives

Municipal50%

Agricultural47%

Industrial3%

Water Resources and Use in Kuwait

Desalinated Water48%

Groundwater43%

Treated Wastewater

9%

Al-Awar, 2005

(90% = domestic)

Cont., Case Study: Urban Water, Kuwait

Main Water Issues Weak Institutional Framework: absence of

national water authority/Apex body to formulate comprehensive and integrated policies and coordinate between various water agencies

Escalating increase rates in municipal water demands exceeding state capabilities in matching the same rates: demand increase from 226 Mm3 in 1993 to 544 Mm3 in 2006

Rapid population growth: 5.5% (last 10 years) High per capita water consumption: >450 L/d Low levels of treated wastewater reuse: 20%

Cont., Case Study: Urban Water, Kuwait

Cont., Main Water Issues High financial burden on national budget:

Desalination plants construction and operation Total water subsidies increased from 287 million to 1000

million US$ in the period from 1992/93 to 2007/08

Low cost recovery: 8.4% in 2003, 6% in 2007

% of % of subsidies for subsidies for desalinated desalinated water water (source: (source: Kuwait Ministry Kuwait Ministry

of Planning)of Planning)

Cont., Case Study: Urban Water, Kuwait

Cont., Case Study: Urban Water, Kuwait

Methodology Evaluation of the current level of urban water

management, indirect and direct driving forces, impacts, and response (IEA: DPSIR)

Assessment and analyses of the “sustainability” of current water policies (IEA: Policy Analysis) Sustainability definition: provision of water supply with

minimum economic costs & environmental impacts Defining the most appropriate management

interventions in urban water management Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (AHP; Focus Group)

Development of dynamic model to evaluate the effectiveness of each proposed alternative

Propose the most effective management interventionsfor the sustainability of urban water

Cont., Case Study: Urban Water, Kuwait

Results Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Efficiency & Sustainability of Urban

Water Management

Eco

nom

ic &

Fi

nanc

ial

Tec

hnol

ogic

al

Polit

ical

Inst

itutio

nal &

Le

gisl

ativ

e

Env

ironm

enta

l

Soci

al

Wat

er-s

avin

g de

vice

s

Leak

age

redu

ctio

n

Reu

se o

f tr

eate

d w

aste

wat

er

Use

of

rene

wab

le

ener

gies

in

desa

linat

ion

Wat

er

impo

rtat

ion

Con

stru

ctio

n of

des

alin

atio

n pl

ants

Con

trol

of

popu

latio

n gr

owth

Aw

aren

ess

rais

ing

Wat

er ta

riff

Objective

Criteria

Alternatives

Cont., Case Study: Urban Water, Kuwait

Cont., Results (AHP)

10%Social11%Political14%Technological16%Institutional & Legislative18%Economical & Financial31%Environmental

WeightCriteria

340Water importation9341Control of population growth8373Construction of desal. plants7380Water Tariff6395renewable energies in desal.5402Leakage reduction4411Water-saving devices3417Reuse of Treated wastewater2444Awareness raising1

ScoreAlternativeRank

Developed Urban Water Management ModelPopulation DynamicsPopulation Dynamics

Desalination DynamicsDesalination Dynamics

Wastewater DynamicsWastewater Dynamics

CostCost

Reference Management

Model for Municipal

Water Sector in Kuwait (current situation)

Results of Reference Management Model (2025)

Kuwaiti and non-Kuwaiti Population

Demands and planned Desalination Capacity

Max Monthly consumption & Desalination Capacity

Cumulative Cost of Water Production

CO2 Emission from Desalination Plants

Collected wastewater & planned treatment capacity

Cont., Case Study: Urban Water, Kuwait

Evaluation of Effectiveness of Management Alternatives

Population Dynamics

Desalination Production Dynamics

Wastewater Dynamics

Cost

Man

agem

ent

Alte

rnat

ives

Cont., Case Study: Kuwait

Modeling Results Water Demands: reduction of demand by 28% by

the year 2020 (from 683 Mm3 to 490 Mm3)

0100200300400500600700800900

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Year

mill

ion

cubi

c m

eter

s Baseline modelManagement Intervention

model

Cont., Case Study: Kuwait

Cont., Modeling Results Water Cost: reduction of cumulative total cost by

8 billion US$ by 2020

0.005.00

10.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.00

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Year

Bill

ion

$

Baseline model

Management Management Intervention Intervention

modelmodel

Cont., Case Study: Kuwait

Cont., Modeling Results Collected Wastewater

Reduction in generated wastewater quantities by 20% by 2020

Delay in current carryover by about 15 years

0.0050.00

100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.00

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Year

mill

ion

cubi

c m

eter

s

Planned Wastewater Treatment Capacity Collected wastewater proposed modelCollected wastewater baseline model

Baseline model

Management Management Intervention Intervention

modelmodel

Conclusion & Recommendations GCC countries are experiencing an alarming increase in

urban water demands (due to rapid population growth, high percentage of UFW, and unsustainable consumption patterns)

The current situation of urban water supply and sanitation is “unsustainable” (over-stretched, high financial and environmental costs)

The situation requires strong management interventions and measures, and need to be addressed from the demand side, coupled with water use efficiency and conservation

An integrated approach in the planning & management of urban water is urgently needed

Energy-Water Nexus and energy value-chain in urban water sector need to be addressed and researched

Thank Thank You!You!